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INDIANAPOLIS -- It's easy to second-guess coach Bill Belichick because you have the best argument: the New England Patriots lost the Super Bowl 21-17 to the New York Giants.

But Belichick was right in letting the Giants score the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute of the fourth quarter. He was right in telling his defense to give Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw a clear path to the end zone from 6 yards out.

Here are the two options that the Patriots faced late in the fourth quarter:

• Belichick's decision to give up the touchdown: Down by four points (21-17), Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense needed to go 80 yards in 57 seconds (with two timeouts) to score the winning touchdown.
• The alternative of holding the Giants to a field goal: Down by one point (18-17), the Patriots would have had 20 seconds (or possibly less if the Giants decided a squib kick) to march about 50 to 55 yards to get into field-goal position with no timeouts.

"Bill [Belichick] has always put us in the best position to succeed no matter what. We trust him," safety James Ihedigbo said. "We want the ball in Tom's hands. That's his call. We are behind him in everything."

Belichick did put New England in the best position to win its fourth Super Bowl. It wasn't like the Patriots could bank on another Billy Cundiff moment.

As Belichick put it after the game: "[The ball] was inside the 10-yard line. A 90 percent field-goal conversion [in that territory]."

If you want to be angry with someone in the fourth quarter, it should be the receivers that dropped passes: Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez. If you want to be angry with Belichick, it should be for his decision to throw the ball on the Patriots' second-to-last possession which stopped the clock and gave Eli Manning more time for the winning drive.

Honestly, the one at fault is Bradshaw for scoring the touchdown.

As soon as Bradshaw took the handoff, Manning was telling him to go down and not to score. Bradshaw ran through the huge hole and tried to stop at the 1-yard line. He twisted around before awkwardly falling backward into the end zone.

"I tried to declare myself down and tapped down," Bradshaw said. "My momentum took me into the end zone."

Bradshaw needed to stop short of the end zone so the Giants could have run more time off the clock. He was a Hail Mary catch away from being remembered as the player who gave the ball back to Brady for the winning touchdown pass.

"They didn't score at the end and that's all I was hoping for," Bradshaw said.

The Patriots said it didn't matter if Bradshaw would have stopped short of the end zone. "We were going to drag him into the end zone," linebacker Jerod Mayo said.

New England put itself in such a precarious position after five straight Manning completions of 38, 16, 2, 14 and 4 yards moved the Giants to the Patriots' 7-yard line with 69 seconds left. After a Bradshaw 1-yard run, the Patriots called their second timeout to stop the clock with 64 seconds remaining.

The Patriots' defense then just stood up as soon as the ball was snapped and watched Bradshaw score the 6-yard touchdown. Defensive end Mark Anderson, who had never given up a touchdown like that, wasn't totally sold on the idea.

"I still wanted to try to get a turnover," Anderson said. "But the captain says what to do and I follow his orders."

Belichick's plan almost worked. Unlike his previous three Super Bowl comebacks, Brady couldn't carry the Patriots to victory this time, although his desperation pass into the end zone on the final play fell just beyond the grasp of tight end Rob Gronkowski.

"You want to let them score so you can get your offense back on the field," Mayo said. "It's situational football. We go over those situations all the time."

This isn't like Belichick's controversial fourth-down decision in Lucas Oil Stadium two seasons ago. He was right in this situation. Belichick just doesn't have the victory to support it.

In the end, the coaching decision was right. The Patriots lost because of poor execution.

INDIANAPOLIS — Jerod Mayo is part drill sergeant, part linebacker. And that combination has equaled one of New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s most reliable players.

"He sets the pace," Belichick said of Mayo this week. "He will be the first one there and the last one to leave. He will know the most about all of our calls and the adjustments on defense, as Tom [Brady] does on offense. The game runs through him."

Mayo, mentally and physically, has been the steady force of New England's defense. He recorded 95 tackles, two interceptions and a sack for the Patriots this season in 14 games. Mayo also added 17 tackles in two playoff games.

But most importantly, Mayo has provided much-needed leadership and brought order to New England's defense.

Growing up in a military household has helped Mayo on the football field. His grandfather was a chief master sergeant in the Air Force and taught Mayo a lot about work ethic and discipline at an early age.

"My grandfather used to wake us up at 6 o'clock in the morning while all my friends were sleeping and we used to go paint some houses," Mayo recalled. "He always wanted to keep us out of trouble. He bought me a weight set when I was in fifth grade."

Mayo's upbringing has made him into one of the hardest-working players on the team. In just four seasons, the former first-round pick has taken over New England's leadership role on defense.

This will be Mayo's first Super Bowl. He was drafted in the first round in 2008, one season after New England was upset by the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Mayo had the benefit of learning under veterans Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour for a short time before they retired (Bruschi, Harrison) or were traded (Seymour). Now, the defense is primarily led by Mayo and veteran defensive tackle Vince Wilfork.

Mayo is doing something right. The Patriots gave him a five-year, $48.5 million extension ($25 million guaranteed) during the season while Mayo still had one year left on his rookie contract. It says a lot when Belichick wants you in his defense for the long term.

Belichick could not say enough good things about Mayo this week.

"He's got a great unselfishness about him," Belichick said. "It's never about him. It's about what’s best for the team. I think that’s really what makes him so well-respected in our locker room and our football team is how committed he is to our team."

There have been plenty of criticisms about Mayo and the Patriots' defense this season — and most of it was deserved. The group was ranked 31st in the NFL, and it is the one unit no one is talking about during Super Bowl week.

But players like Wilfork, Mayo and fellow linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Spikes have all taken their games to another notch in the postseason. The Patriots have allowed just 15 points per game against the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens.

It appears New England's defense has finally figured things out, albeit very late in the season. But the group deserves a lot of credit for staying together and never pointing fingers in rough times.

Can Mayo and the Patriots stop Eli Manning and the various weapons the Giants have on offense? Most people don't think New England's defense can give the Giants' offense many problems.

But the Patriots' defense is used to being underestimated all season. Sunday will be one final opportunity for Mayo and New England to prove the critics wrong against New York's high-powered offense in Super Bowl XLVI.

"You can’t really listen to all the outsiders," Mayo explained of the defense's mindset. "You can’t listen to the media, you can’t listen to your family and you can’t listen to your friends. You just have to listen to these coaches. They know what they’re doing. They’ve won championships and hopefully we can get another one."

INDIANAPOLIS -- Bill Belichick seemed to weigh his options carefully when asked about Aaron Rodgers' complaints about the Pro Bowl lacking a certain competitive zeal.

"Um, what I'm going to say wouldn't be probably what I should say," the New England Patriots' coach said Wednesday during his Super Bowl news conference.

Belichick paused.

"I'm going to let that one go," he said.

Another pause.

"What it was and what it is now is a lot different," he added.

What the Pro Bowl was long ago -- a marginally competitive all-star game featuring final scores such as 10-6, 23-21 and 23-10 -- has turned into a game where the losing team routinely has 30-plus points. Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers' Pro Bowl quarterback, lamented the NFC squad's lack of competitiveness during a 59-41 defeat Sunday. He said some players from the NFC squad embarrassed themselves with their lack of effort.

Rodgers did not name guilty parties, of course. NFC West teams had 17 Pro Bowlers this season, including some who withdrew from the game.

Once Belichick's news conference finished, I went across the hall to poll New England players on the subject during their daily media session.

"I tried to go hard in the game," said linebacker Jerod Mayo, a Pro Bowl selection in 2010. "The harder you go, the less likely you are to get injured. You try to tempo it a little bit, you're probably going to get hurt."

Nose tackle Vince Wilfork, a four-time Pro Bowl choice, advocates caution.

"Guys play a full season, they play physical through a full season, and you get rewarded," Wilfork said. "The last thing you want to do is go out in a game like that and hurt yourself. That is not good for the individual or for the organization."

Guard Logan Mankins, also a four-time Pro Bowl selection, said he doubts there's a realistic way to ramp up competitiveness.

"I don't know how you fix it," Mankins said. "You're going to give a little effort, but you're not going to get out of control. Some guys are free agents over there. You get hurt in a Pro Bowl and it's going to affect that contract with another team. Who would want to get hurt in a Pro Bowl and not be able to play the next season?"

INDIANAPOLIS -- The AFC champion New England Patriots made one thing clear in their first two days at Super Bowl XLVI: They have little interest in rehashing past meetings against the New York Giants.

New England suffered recent losses to the Giants in big games -- both this past regular season and in Super Bowl XLII. Giants quarterback Eli Manning provided a pair of dramatic, fourth-quarter drives to seal it for New York.

Naturally, there will be a ton of questions for the Patriots this week whether the Giants have momentum, or have their number. The Patriots just won’t entertain them.

"This team doesn't talk, not about the past," Patriots veteran receiver Deion Branch said.

New England head coach Bill Belichick is leading the charge in not reflecting on previous games against New York.

"This team is this team," Belichick said. "I think our team is different than what it was at midseason, different than what it was in December. I think the Giants are a different team from when we played them in November."

Regardless, New York comes in very confident after being one of three teams to beat the Patriots this year. The Giants also had the tougher road through the playoffs, beating the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers.

Both teams have improved as the season has gone on, leading to Sunday's big matchup with everything on the line.

"You could take a little bit as far as the personnel, but as far as our game plan is concerned, you really can't take too much," Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo said. "They've had an extra week to prepare, so have we, and I'm sure we’ll have a lot of different looks for them."

One of the greatest Super Bowls in history is coming out for an encore, as the New York Giants and the New England Patriots hook up Feb. 5 in Indianapolis in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII just four years ago. There are 15 Giants and seven Patriots still left from that game, which the Giants won to spoil New England's perfect season. But this year's matchup has plenty of its own storylines without dredging up the old ones. AFC East blogger James Walker and NFC East blogger Dan Graziano will both be on hand in Indy, but in the meantime they've joined forces to break down Super Bowl XLVI way in advance.

Graziano: Well, James, just as everyone predicted, the Super Bowl features the team that finished 27th in total defense in the regular season against the team that finished 31st. Having watched the Giants' last 10 games, I've seen their defense transform from one of the league's most vulnerable into a tight, cohesive, disciplined bunch that bears almost no resemblance to what they were running out there in the middle of the season. When I've watched the Patriots' defense, it's looked to me like one of the worst I've ever seen. What have they been able to do lately in terms of adjustments to limit their opponents and get this far?

Walker: Hey, Mr. Pineapple… I mean… Dan. I don’t know if you’re more shocked the Giants are going to Indy, based on your earlier “I’m a pineapple” statement, or that the Patriots will join them. You were pretty adamant about the Baltimore Ravens exposing New England’s defense last week — and I can’t blame you. I have been one of their harshest critics. But it’s time to give this group some credit. New England has allowed just 30 points the past two games, and the biggest reason is the front seven. Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork, and linebackers Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich, have simultaneously taken their games to another level. That is what you want this time of year. They are dominating the line of scrimmage and getting pressure on the quarterback. New England has eight sacks in the playoffs. I don’t know where this version of the Patriots’ defense has been all season, but in talking with players the past two weeks, I don’t think they care. The defense is happy to finally make plays to help the Patriots win.

Graziano: So it looks as though both teams have overhauled or tightened up some things since the Giants went up there in Week 9 and beat the Pats in Foxborough. I'm curious to see what role that result will play in this game and the preparation for it. Justin Tuck told me Tuesday that he expects Tom Brady to do completely different stuff this time around, because he's got such great ability to adjust to what the defense is trying to do to him. And unlike the Giants' last two games, which avenged regular-season losses to Green Bay and San Francisco, this is a rematch of a regular-season game the Giants actually won. I can't help but think the success they had against Brady in Week 9 — not to mention in the Super Bowl four years ago — has to help the Giants' mental state as they prepare. If you can strip away some of that unbeatable veneer from Brady, that's a big psychological assist.

Walker: I agree, Dan. I don’t see either team lacking confidence. The Giants have it from beating New England in Super Bowl XLII and the regular season. The Patriots have it from reeling off 10 straight victories. The Patriots feel they are a much better team than what the Giants faced in Week 9. I think New England took a lot from those back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and New York in the regular season. The Patriots knew they were good, but it was questionable whether they were mentally and physically tough. That has been the case since those two losses. The Patriots have overcome a couple of big deficits in the regular season, then lambasted Denver and showed grit against Baltimore in the playoffs. But enough about defense, Dan. We can’t do a Double Coverage without talking in-depth about the quarterbacks. How do you size up Brady, who is elite, versus Eli Manning, whom many feel just catapulted into elite status with his second Super Bowl run?

Graziano: You can make the argument that Brady is the best quarterback in the history of the sport. And because of that, any other quarterback is going to have a tough time in this comparison. But I'll say these things about Eli: He's gotten better every year. Last year, the knock on him was interceptions, and he got those down. He's been smart with his decision-making and responsible with the ball. He was winning games by himself this year when the Giants couldn't stop anyone on defense and couldn't run the ball at all. His teammates trust and believe in him totally. His demeanor never changes, regardless of the intensity of the situation, and that's why he's able to excel in spots that cause other players to shrink. Every single one of those things can be said about Brady, and the fact you can also say them about Eli at this point in his career gives the Giants a huge assist in a matchup like this. Because to beat Brady, you need to have a quarterback on your side who's at least capable of outplaying Brady on any given day. Eli has shown he has that capability, and that's another reason the Giants have been able to close the psychological gap the Patriots have held over so many other teams in recent years.

Walker: Manning and the Giants certainly present a challenge that Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco did not. But if I’m choosing which of these two quarterbacks I want leading my team in the Super Bowl, I’m taking Brady every time. He just tied Joe Montana for the most playoff wins in NFL history with 16. Brady can surpass Montana for postseason wins and tie Montana and Terry Bradshaw’s four Super Bowls victories by beating the Giants. Some might point to Brady struggling against Baltimore’s elite defense in the AFC title game. But I think that makes the ultra-competitive Brady even more focused and more dangerous in the Super Bowl. When was the last time Brady played two duds in a row? New England had some issues passing for a ton of yards against Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed and Baltimore’s big, athletic corners. But New York’s secondary doesn’t have nearly the same talent. I expect Brady to bounce back and do some damage passing against the Giants’ defense, especially in a dome and on the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium. I think the biggest issue is the Patriots’ ability to pass protect against New York’s monster front four.

Graziano: The Giants will come after Brady. They believe that's the best way to rattle him, because they believe that's the best way to rattle any quarterback. And the Giants know that their defense really only works if it gets pressure on the quarterback with the front four. Their coverage in the secondary has improved in recent weeks, but as Vernon Davis proved, it can get exposed when the pressure is insufficient. I'm fascinated to see how they handle the Patriots' tight ends after they were able to neutralize Jermichael Finley two weeks ago and got burned by Davis last week. Do they have to worry about Rob Gronkowski, or is the ankle injury going to give them a break?

Walker: Gronkowski won’t be 100 percent, but who is this time of year? There are two reasons I’m sure he will play. First, he returned to the AFC title game in the fourth quarter. Second, he said he won’t miss the Super Bowl. Of course, there could be setbacks, but Gronkowski seemed confident it won't keep him off the field. Whether we see Gronkowski at 70 percent or 90 percent is up to how well his rehabilitation goes. But he has to be accounted for as long as he’s on the field. This could mean more chances for fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez. He’s slightly more athletic and stretches the field more than Gronkowski, which may work better against the Giants’ defense. Should we make our predictions now, Dan, or wait until next week? What say you?

Graziano: As I tell my followers every time they ask, I make my predictions on Fridays. So I’m going to wait until Friday, Feb. 3, to make my pick for this game. That gives me another week-plus to mull over whether the Giants have an answer for the Gronk, and I look forward to talking it over with you in Indy, James. See you there in a few days.

OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- Ravens running back Ray Rice said the "fondest moment" of his four-year NFL career came in the 2009 playoff game in New England, when he broke an 83-yard touchdown run on the first playoff from scrimmage.

It was the longest rushing play in Ravens history and the second-longest rushing touchdown in NFL postseason history.

"When you can do something that special in a playoff game in another team's stadium, that was huge," Rice said. "And that's something that I'll cherish for the rest of my life. And obviously, we didn't go on and win the Big Dance, but playoffs are [what] separates everybody. There's a reason why there's only four teams, and there's only one true champion at the end of the year. But when you can do something special in the playoffs, it's definitely remembered. And, that's something that I'll definitely take with me for the rest of my life."

But how many Patriots really remember it? Only two starters from that New England front seven will start Sunday against Rice and the Ravens (defensive tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo).

"I think they've gotten over it," Rice said of his playoff run. "Obviously, they're back in the AFC Championship Game, and if I'm not mistaken, besides the playoffs, the last time we faced them we didn't win that game. And they did a great job of containing me."

In the last meeting (October 2010), Rice was limited to 88 yards on 28 carries, a 3.1-yard average. His longest run was eight yards.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. New York Jets' playoff chances: It was just one week ago that the talented but inconsistent Jets controlled their own playoff fate. It was a simple formula: Win the final two games and they're in. But the Jets laid their second egg in a row, to the cross-town rival New York Giants. Now, the Jets need to beat the Dolphins and get a ton of help. Three teams need to lose next week or the Jets will be watching the playoffs from home. This team had Super Bowl expectations entering the season. The Jets have no one to blame but themselves if they don't get into the postseason.

2. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer: The Jets have the NFL's 27th-ranked offense. Although there's plenty of blame to go around, the offensive coordinator will probably get the brunt of it. Schottenheimer has underachieved with talented weapons such as tight end Dustin Keller, receivers Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress and running backs Shonn Greene, Joe McKnight and LaDainian Tomlinson. There are already rumblings in New York that Schottenheimer's job may be in jeopardy. I think, at the very least, Jets head coach Rex Ryan and the front office will take a hard look at ways to improve the offense and its coaching staff in the offseason.

3. Miami Dolphins' draft stock: The Dolphins are 5-10 and currently own the No. 8 overall pick in April’s NFL draft. Sounds good, right? Well, not so much. Miami is searching for a top quarterback and may be on the outside looking in this offseason. Three very good quarterback prospects were expected to be available: Stanford's Andrew Luck, Baylor's Robert Griffin III and USC's Matt Barkley. Luck will be gone with the first pick, Griffin is projected to go before No. 8 and Barkley opted to return for his senior season. The Dolphins could roll the dice with Oklahoma's Landry Jones, but he's considered a drop-off from the other three college quarterbacks. It's looking more and more like Miami could stay with Matt Moore in 2012 or see whether there are any intriguing veterans available in free agency.

RISING

1. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots linebacker: New England needs someone to step up defensively down the stretch. Mayo is the most likely candidate to do it. He is coming off his best game of the season in a key win over Miami. Mayo recorded 13 tackles and a season-high two sacks. Mayo is one of the few consistent players on New England's inconsistent defense. Keep an eye on Mayo in the playoffs.

2. Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo Bills cornerback: Buffalo fans expected more from McKelvin when the team drafted him in the first round in 2008. The Bills were counting on McKelvin to develop into a shutdown corner. That hasn't been the case. But one area where McKelvin has been as good as advertised is his ability to return kicks, which came in handy during Buffalo's win over the Denver Broncos. McKelvin set a team record with 136 punt return yards, including an 80-yard touchdown in the second quarter that was Buffalo's final lead change.

3. Wes Welker, Patriots receiver: What more can you say about Welker? He continues to produce and had another big game against Miami. Welker recorded 12 receptions for 138 yards. Teams are focusing on Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski more, which should open up opportunities for Welker. Welker was targeted 19 times last week by Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Welker has 116 receptions for 1,518 yards in what will surely be another Pro Bowl season.

Here are seven notes and observations after Week 16 in the AFC East:

• New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan will not be on the hot seat. I already hear grumblings coming from Jets Nation, but it's not going to happen. Ryan is too good a coach. He led the Jets to back-to-back AFC title games in his first two years. Ryan is not the issue in New York. His problem is his brash trash-talking makes him an easy target. I can go down a list of many things that went wrong with the Jets this year before I get to Ryan. But his boastful ways place the biggest spotlight on him when things go bad.
[+] Enlarge
Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US PresswireMark Sanchez still must prove he's the long-term answer at quarterback for the Jets.
• If quarterback Mark Sanchez doesn't improve his accuracy next offseason, he's going to have a hard time proving he's the long-term solution in New York. Most great quarterbacks complete about 60-65 percent of their passes. Sanchez has been hovering around the mid-50s his entire career and hasn't shown much improvement in three seasons. Sanchez misses too many open receivers, particularly deep, which either leads to interceptions or leaves big plays on the field. Sanchez has some strengths, but accuracy is a major weakness that is hard for teams to overcome. He threw a career-high 59 times Saturday against the New York Giants and only completed 30 passes for a 50.8 completion percentage.
• The New England Patriots got the best of both worlds against the Miami Dolphins. New England received a scare by falling behind 17-0 at halftime, but rallied to win, maintaining the inside track on home-field advantage. This game was enough to serve as a wake-up call for the Patriots. Despite seven straight wins, they cannot go on cruise control. It was a good learning tool that head coach Bill Belichick can build on late in the season.
• Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo had his best all-around game of the season against Miami. He led New England with 13 tackles, two sacks and two additional hits on the quarterback. I like the idea of giving Mayo more opportunities to get to the quarterback. Mayo is at his best when he's attacking, as oppose to reacting. Saturday's game marked Mayo's first two sacks of the season. Mayo only has 5.5 for his career.
• Jake Long tearing his biceps was the worst possible news for the Dolphins' left tackle. Long is going into a contract year in 2012. Any chance he had of Miami giving him an extension this offseason might have ended with this season-ending injury in December. Long will miss the Dolphins' final game and has a lengthy rehabilitation process ahead. Miami would be wise to let Long play out the final year of his contract and see how he bounces back from this major injury. Eventually, Long will be looking to become one of the NFL's highest-paid offensive linemen.
• With the Detroit Lions clinching a playoff spot last weekend, the Buffalo Bills are alone with the longest non-playoff streak in the NFL. It will be a dozen years and counting for the Bills since they last made the postseason. This season, Buffalo got off to a fast start but fizzled down the stretch. According to ESPN's Stats and Information, the teams with the second and third longest streaks are the Houston Texans (nine seasons) and San Francisco 49ers (eight seasons). Both will make the playoffs this season, leaving a huge gap between Buffalo and the next team -- the Cleveland Browns (eight seasons).
• Finally, parity is alive and well in the NFL. The league is doing exactly what its supposed to, considering the amount of average teams. An astounding 14 clubs are in position to finish 8-8 or 7-9 this season. Other than the Green Bay Packers (14-1), there are no true dominant teams. Fans love that nearly every team has a shot. There is a fine line for most teams being in or out the playoffs.

The AFC East has been "Tebowed" twice already this season.

In Week 7, the Miami Dolphins led 15-0 in the fourth quarter before Tim Tebow led the Denver Broncos to 18 straight points in an overtime victory. It was Tebow's first start of the 2011 season.

In Week 11, the New York Jets allowed Tebow to drive Denver 95 yards in the final minutes for the game-winning score. It was capped by Tebow's 20-yard touchdown run with 58 seconds remaining.

Are the New England Patriots Tebow's next victim?

The Patriots (10-3), winners of five straight, will travel to Sports Authority Field at Mile High to face Tebow and the equally hot Broncos (8-5). Teams have been unable to solve Tebow and Denver's read-option offense for four quarters. The Broncos have won six in a row. They are 7-1 with Tebow under center and in first place in the AFC West.

This will be an intriguing challenge for Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. He's developed a reputation as a defensive mastermind and is known to come up with schemes to confuse quarterbacks. But that hasn't been the case for Belichick this season. New England has the NFL's worst-rated defense, allowing 416 yards per game.

Rex Ryan and New York's defense couldn't stop Tebow. Neither could Miami and veteran defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

Will Belichick find the right formula to stop the Tebow train?

"They're at the top of their game," Belichick said of Tebow and Denver's offense this week. "Hopefully, it's our target to get to the top of ours by Sunday."

The good news for New England is its run defense is solid. The Patriots are ranked 13th against the run. Players like defensive tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Jerod Mayo should allow New England to match Denver's physically up front.

The Broncos lead the NFL in rushing with an average of 156.2 yards per game. Tebow is at his best when he's a dual threat with his legs and arm. He's thrown for 1,290 yards and rushed for an additional 517 yards.

"Tim is a strong runner, good athlete, he can hurt you out of the pocket," Belichick said. "We've faced other quarterbacks like that. The big thing is just the whole offense. They run the ball, they have different types of running plays, running attack and then they have a lot of good receivers and they throw the ball down the field. There are a lot of challenges there."

Denver likes to run the ball the first three quarters to eat up clock and limit possessions. That keeps games close for Tebow to pull it out in the end.

With New England's defense struggling, expect the "Tom Brady factor" to play a huge role in this game. This game will be as much about Brady versus Tebow as it is Tebow versus New England's defense.

Often, Brady is New England's best defender. The MVP candidate has been stellar. The Patriots are second in the league in total offense (424.4 yards) and third in scoring (30.5 points). Last week was a perfect example as Brady continued to put up points to barely stay ahead of the Washington Redskins. New England won that game, 34-27.

A shootout between Brady and Tebow definitely favors New England. Therefore, Brady scoring early and often against Denver's defense is key to pressuring Tebow to match that production. Five of Tebow's seven wins have come by scoring fewer than 20 points.

"I think that's the difference," said Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. "That's something that the Broncos haven't faced yet -- the firepower that they're going to have to deal with Sunday. Denver's defense is quite good, but not against Brady and those guys.

"I think Denver's defense is in for a long day. Brady is going to put up 28-35 points against just about anybody, including Denver. In the end, I think that gets Tebow out of his game. Even though he's getting better as a passer, that‘s not the game they want to play with him."

New England's biggest fear is keeping the game close in the final minutes. That is when Tebow is unleashed and becomes a completely different player. Many in Denver call the fourth quarter "Tebow Time."

According to ESPN's Stats & Information, Tebow has the NFL's highest Total Quarterback Rating (96.3) in the fourth quarter. This season Tebow has performed better than everyone down the stretch, including Brady (83.0) and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (91.7).

"They've had a lot of production," Belichick said of Denver's offense late in games. "I wouldn't say it's dramatically different. It's not like they run out a new whole thing. They’ve done it in different ways — they’ve done it throwing the ball, running the ball, driving it, making big plays. We’ll have to obviously study it a little bit more carefully but from what I’ve seen, they’ve made plays when they had to make them, critical plays."

The challenge for Belichick and New England is to get a big enough lead in the first three quarters, especially on the road. That way, the Patriots can avoid being the latest team to get "Tebowed."

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Rob Ryan. The Dallas Cowboys' defensive coordinator was a hot name on the head-coaching rumor mill a couple of weeks ago. But lately, Ryan's defense hasn't been able to stop anyone. He seems to blitz when he shouldn't blitz, to not blitz when he should ... the kinds of things that happen when your coverage in the secondary is failing you. And it's failing Ryan big-time right now. Terence Newman has regressed throughout the season. Mike Jenkins looks like an injury waiting to happen. And the guys behind the starting corners aren't playing well at all. Of all the Cowboys' collapses this year, the one that might haunt them the most if they don't end up in the playoffs is blowing a 12-point lead in the final six minutes against the Giants on Sunday night.

2. New York Giants secondary: The Giants as a whole are rising, as they're back on top of the division by virtue of a tiebreaker and in spite of the four-game losing streak they just ended. But if you watched Sunday's game, you noticed the Cowboys weren't the only team in it that couldn't get a stop on the back end. Giants coach Tom Coughlin called his team's coverage issues a "grave concern," and the Giants need to get some things fixed in the secondary these next two weeks against Rex Grossman and Mark Sanchez before they see Tony Romo & Co. again in what could be a critical Week 17 rematch.

3. Santana Moss, Redskins receiver. Normally one of the Washington Redskins' most solid and reliable offensive performers, Moss cost his team a chance to send Sunday's game against the Patriots into overtime. An offensive pass interference penalty moved the Redskins back as they were driving for the tying touchdown, and Grossman's final throw of the game went off Moss' hands and into the arms of Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo for an interception that ended all hope. It hasn't been the greatest year for Moss, who missed games earlier in the season with a broken hand, but Sunday was a low point.

RISING

1. Eli Manning, Giants quarterback. He's been here before, but Manning just keeps on rising and rising and rising. His 400 passing yards in his latest comeback victory established a new single-season career high. He's over 4,000 yards for the third year in a row and one of four quarterbacks who are threatening to surpass Dan Marino's single-season NFL record of 5,084 yards. If Aaron Rodgers hadn't already locked up the award, Manning would be in the MVP race. He's led five game-winning touchdown drives this year for a team that has only seven wins. If the Giants' run game can look as good as it looked Sunday behind a resurgent Brandon Jacobs, the way Manning's playing could make them one of the best offenses in the league in the final month.

2. Felix Jones, Cowboys running back. Sadly for Cowboys rookie running back DeMarco Murray, his season is over because of a severe ankle injury he suffered in the first quarter of Sunday's loss. That means a lot more carries for Jones, who was the starter earlier this season before he got hurt and Murray took over. Jones looked fresh and spry and more than capable Sunday. The problem now is that they have practically nothing behind him, so the priority has to be keeping Jones from getting hurt. I imagine the Cowboys will throw the ball more over their final three games, but when they run, they'll ask Jones to do the running.

3. Philadelphia Eagles defense. They totally cooled off a red-hot Miami team Sunday, knocking quarterback Matt Moore out of the game and shutting down the Dolphins after an early Brandon Marshall touchdown. First-year defensive coordinator Juan Castillo is working new guys into new roles and expanding what the defense is capable of doing. It was the best the defense has looked all year and the way the Eagles had hoped they'd be able to play consistently this year. The talent is there, and if the scheme and focus issues are settled, it may be enough to carry the Eagles to a strong finish, even if it is too little too late.

A few thoughts on the Washington Redskins' hard-fought loss to the Patriots at FedEx Field on Sunday:

What it means: Pure heartbreak! The Redskins got as far as the New England 5-yard line in the final minute with a chance to tie it. But veteran receiver Santana Moss made two costly mistakes that prevented it from happening. Moss was flagged for an offensive pass interference penalty that moved the Redskins back to the 15, and then a Rex Grossman pass bounced off of Moss' hands and into those of Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo for the game-clinching interception. The Redskins fall to 4-9 and ensure their third consecutive season with a losing record.

Offense shows heart: Clearly, the New England defense is abominable. But the number of personnel losses the Redskins have suffered this season should have rendered their offense incapable of moving the ball against almost anyone. This was not the case Sunday, as Grossman consistently found receivers when he needed to. No Fred Davis? No problem. Grossman completed passes to seven different receivers. Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney each went over 90 yards receiving, and Moss was over 80. Roy Helu racked up a manly 126 yards on 27 carries. The balance on offense was remarkable -- 34 run plays and 35 pass plays. It was the fifth game this year in which the Redskins ran the ball on at least 40 percent of their offensive plays and the first such game that they lost. But considering they were playing without both starting tackles after Jammal Brown got hurt in warm-ups, it was probably the best the offense has looked all year. They outgained the Patriots 463 yards to 431.

Streak continues: The interception wasn't his fault, but it did extend Grossman's streak to nine straight games with at least one interception. He also lost a fumble in the end zone earlier in the game, and the Patriots recovered it for a touchdown.

Defense holds its own: The Redskins' defense gave up 27 points, but it held Tom Brady and the Patriots to 5-for-11 on third downs (while the Redskins' offense went 7-for-14 on third downs), and Josh Wilson's interception in the end zone set the Redskins up for their chance to tie the game. Brady looked to be at least a little bit off his game in the second half (for him, at least), and I imagine the Redskins were able to put some real defensive positives on film.

What's next: The Redskins travel to New Jersey on Sunday to play the New York Giants with a chance to mess up the Giants' season. They got New York's season off to a rotten start by beating them Week 1 in Washington, and a victory next Sunday at the Meadowlands could severely damage, if not end, the Giants' playoff hopes.

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FALLING

1. Miami Dolphins' poise: The Dolphins (0-6) are setting records for being inept. They are the first team to blow a 15-point lead in the final three minutes since the NFL-AFL merger, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Once Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow got hot, Miami completely unraveled on offense, defense and special teams. The Dolphins' defense allowed two late touchdown drives to Tebow, the special teams failed to recover an onside kick, and Miami quarterback Matt Moore's sack and fumble led to Denver's game-winning field goal. It was a teamwide collapse.

2. Tony Sparano, Miami head coach: The Dolphins' coach is one of the AFC East leaders in the "falling" category this season. He dropped his ninth straight game as head coach. The Dolphins also are an astounding 1-12 in Sparano's last 13 home games. It's just a matter of time before Miami makes a coaching change. It could happen next week or at the end of the season. But Miami can't continue down this path beyond the 2011 season.

3. New York Jets in the first half: This may sound like nitpicking -- New York eventually came back to beat the Chargers -- but the Jets have started slow for the past month. New York trailed at halftime in three of its past four games. The Jets led at halftime only against the winless Dolphins, 14-6, in that span. New York overcame a 21-10 deficit last week against the Chargers. The Jets are 4-3 and cannot continue to rely on second-half rallies if they want to make the playoffs.

RISING

1. Shonn Greene, Jets tailback: The AFC East blog has been critical of Greene's lack of production all season. So it's fair to give Greene credit when he has a great game. Green rushed for a season-high 112 yards on 20 carries. He ran strong between the tackles against the Chargers and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. The Jets can win a lot of games if Greene runs this way more consistently. This is the first 100-yard game for Greene in 2011.

2. Plaxico Burress, Jets receiver: Burress had the most impressive four-catch, 25-yard performance a receiver can have. Burress was unstoppable in the red zone against San Diego. He scored all three of New York's touchdowns to lead the Jets to a 27-21 win. The Jets invested $3 million into Burress for games like this. He's a big body who can make quarterback Mark Sanchez's job a lot easier when the offense is clicking.

3. Rest for Patriots and Bills: The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots should benefit from the bye week. Both teams had injuries and gave key players two weeks to heal. For the Patriots, Pro Bowl linebacker Jerod Mayo is improving and has a chance to return against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo is expected to get back starting linebacker Chris Kelsay. Linebacker Shawne Merriman (Achilles) also said last week he expects to play against Washington, but nothing has been made official by the Bills.

OAKLAND -- Rapid reaction from the Patriots’ 31-19 win over the Raiders:

What it means: The Patriots improve to 3-1, while the Raiders -- who were using this game as a measuring stick to see where they stand in the AFC -- drop to 2-2. The Patriots took advantage of Raider penalties and turnovers to post the win. The defense looked vulnerable for large stretches of the game, but provided enough resistance in critical situations, while also benefitting from a few Raider gifts. This wasn’t a convincing effort, but the Patriots will obviously take it.

Injury to Mayo a top story: Patriots defensive captain Jerod Mayo left the game in the second quarter with a knee injury and did not return. He had to be carted to the locker room at halftime. The Pro Bowl linebacker plays every snap, leads the huddle, and also tops the team in tackles. In addition to Mayo, running back Danny Woodhead limped off at the end of the second quarter and did not return.

Turning point at end of half: Much like last week’s game in Buffalo, a key turning point came at the end of the first half, and this time it went in the Patriots’ favor. The Raiders were driving with a chance to go ahead 17-14 when Oakland quarterback Jason Campbell gift-wrapped an interception to safety Patrick Chung in the end zone. The Patriots drove down for a field goal in what was a 10-point swing, and then got the ball at the start of the third quarter and scored a touchdown (24-10).

Welker simply remarkable: What else can be said when it comes to Wes Welker? At the quarter-point of the season, he has had an MVP-worthy stretch. He finished with nine catches for 158 yards and a touchdown Sunday. When the Patriots need a big play, it’s usually Tom Brady looking to Welker.

Ridley continues to rise; running game shows life: Rookie running back Stevan Ridley (10 carries, 97 yards, TD) had his best day as a pro, getting his most extended playing time and contributing with an impressive 33-yard touchdown run in the second half. Ridley played five snaps in the first half, but saw more time in the second half as Woodhead was sidelined with an injury. Overall, the Patriots’ running game was a big part of the victory, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis (16 carries, 75 yards and a TD) also running well. The Patriots were balanced and answered the physical challenge.

Turns out Seymour helps Patriots: Former Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour helped the Patriots, as he was flagged for unnecessary roughness and a face mask on the Patriots’ first drive. The Raiders had seized some early momentum at that point, but Seymour gave it back. It might have been a case of him being too fired up to play his former team.

Another INT for Wilfork: The Patriots’ secret weapon on pass defense? That would be 6-foot-2, 325-pound defensive lineman Vince Wilfork. For the second time in three weeks, Wilfork had an interception, this one coming in the fourth quarter on a short pass across the middle. Given the team’s thinned depth at cornerback ... (sarcasm intended).

Raiders not yet in the elite discussion: After beating the Jets last week, the Raiders had their fans excited that perhaps they were ready to enter the discussion of the AFC’s top teams. But their undisciplined and sloppy play in this game made them look like the “same-old” Raiders.

What’s next: The Patriots host the Jets next Sunday (4:15 p.m.). It will be the Jets’ third straight road game.

TAMPA -- Rapid reaction after the Patriots throttled the Buccaneers, 31-14, in both teams' second preseason game:

Domination from top units. The Patriots looked sharp on both sides of the ball, opening a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. It was 28-0 at the half. Quarterback Tom Brady was on his game; outside of failing to execute in a two-minute situation at the end of the first half, he directed an offense that played at a regular-season type pace. Meanwhile, the defense had a nice mix of tight coverage and pressure, forcing two three-and-outs to open the game. It was 14-0 by that point as the Patriots' first-stringers smoked the Buccaneers' top players. The Patriots' top units look loaded.

Ochocinco's takes big hit, responds. The first Tom Brady-to-Chad Ochocinco connection got off to a tough start, with Brady's first pass to No. 85 over the middle resulting in Ochocinco taking a big hit from linebacker Mason Foster that drew a personal-foul penalty. After another incompletion along the sideline, Ochocinco gathered in an 8-yard touchdown from Brady on a play-action fake out of a three-tight end set. Ochocinco left the football in the end zone, hardly celebrating. In all, Ochocinco was charted on the field for 24 snaps (including penalties). His stat line: 2 catches, 14 yards, 1 TD.

Starters play throughout first half. Playing time is often a big question in preseason games and Bill Belichick kept his top players in the game throughout the first half. Rookie left tackle Nate Solder, who started, played two series into the second half. The Patriots were shorthanded in the secondary, so they had some top players still on the field in the second half.

Attacking defense, led by Carter and Mayo, shines. After a 2010 season in which the Patriots struggled to generate pressure on a consistent basis out of their base alignment, tonight looked like a different unit. They were swarming, led by linebacker Jerod Mayo (2 sacks) and defensive end Andre Carter, who was bringing it off the right edge. Impressive.

Running game gets it going. The offensive line/tight ends and running backs Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis get deserving praise, as the Patriots steamrolled the Buccaneers. First-half totals on the ground: 117 yards on 17 carries (6.9 avg.) and two touchdowns.

Health questions with Fletcher, Lockett and Woodhead. Areas to monitor on the health front in the days to come are with linebacker Dane Fletcher (thumb), safety Bret Lockett (thigh/groin) and Woodhead (shaken up on fourth-quarter punt coverage). Woodhead was smiling on the bench at the end of the game.

Mallett throws a pick-six. After an impressive performance in the preseason opener, rookie quarterback Ryan Mallett struggled, throwing a pick-six on his first drive which opened the second half. It was returned 69 yards for a touchdown by cornerback Elbert Mack, with Mallett getting crunched on the return. No. 2 quarterback Brian Hoyer, who played sparingly as he was inserted into the game mid-drive twice as a way to keep him sharp, also almost threw a pick-six. Not a great night for the backups after a strong showing in the preseason opener. Overall, the second half was sloppy for the Patriots' reserves.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Rapid reaction from the Patriots' 47-12 win over the Jaguars in the preseason opener:

A night for backups. Bill Belichick sat several key players, quarterback Tom Brady; receivers Chad Ochocinco, Wes Welker and Deion Branch; defensive lineman Vince Wilfork; cornerback Devin McCourty and linebacker Jerod Mayo among them. This gave Belichick a chance to evaluate some younger players, while at the same time not rushing things with key personnel after just seven full-pad practices. You had to be a hard-core fan to sit through all of this one, but in all, it was a productive night for a first preseason game.

Taylor Price one of the big stories. The second-year receiver was excellent, the highlight play coming with a back-of-the-end-zone, fingertip, toe-tapping touchdown grab. Price later showed his speed on a long catch-and-run play. Price is behind Ochocinco, Branch and Welker on the depth chart, but he ensured that he's not in jeopardy of missing the final roster cut. Impressive night.

Quarterback situation looks sharp. Between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, the Patriots appear to have one of the best backup quarterback situations in the NFL. Both were impressive.

Rookie RB Stevan Ridley shines. Third-round pick Stevan Ridley showed up for camp on time and took advantage of extended reps as second-rounder Shane Vereen had yet to sign and veterans BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris could not yet practice. That showed tonight. Ridley's confidence and hard-charging style was evident on two touchdown runs and he showed good hands on a touchdown catch. Agents generally don't get a lot of praise, but Ridley's agent -- Andy Simms -- gets a tip of the cap from here. Simms is also the agent for McCourty and for two years in a row he's made sure his clients were there for the first day of practice, putting them in the best position to succeed.

Tough night for CBs Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite. Both played into the fourth quarter. That's a hard fall for Butler, the 2009 second-round pick was an opening-day starter last season. Butler and Wilhite look to be on the roster bubble.

Nate Solder passes first test. The first-round pick played the entire first half at left tackle. He was hardly noticed, which meant he did his job well.

Dane Fletcher a top performer on defense. The second-year linebacker started and led the defensive huddle. He finished with five tackles while delivering a bit hit in the process. A strong special teams player as a rookie (he made the club as a free agent), he showed he's ready if called upon as a middle linebacker in the event of injury to Brandon Spikes.