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Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different than in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace long-time stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not posses the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft won’t be remembered as the flashiest in NFC South history. That honor belongs to the 2011 draft -- probably forever.

It’s tough to top a draft in which quarterback Cam Newton went No. 1 to Carolina, Atlanta traded up for receiver Julio Jones and New Orleans traded back into the first round to get running back Mark Ingram. Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pretty good splash, this year’s NFC South draft wasn’t filled with drama.

Instead, it was filled with very deliberate picks that addressed big needs all around the division.

BEST MOVE

No pick set the division's tone for this draft better than Carolina's selection of Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 9 overall.

There’s nothing really flashy about Kuechly, but the Panthers didn’t need flash this time around. They got that with Newton, and he gave them a prolific offense. But that offense was only enough to carry the Panthers to a 6-10 record last season. Carolina couldn’t play defense, and opponents have run all over the Panthers the last few seasons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers should go with a defensive tackle in the first round. But there were two reasons they didn’t. They weren’t enamored of any of the first-round prospects at that position. They also feel pretty good about what they already have at defensive tackle. Ron Edwards, a big free-agent pickup last year, is coming back from an injury that kept him out last season, and the Panthers think he can anchor their defensive line. They also used two third-round picks on defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Sione Fua last year.

The Panthers believe they have the personnel to clog up the middle. Kuechly should be able to come in and do what he does best. He can roam the field and be the kind of tackling machine he was in college. This guy had as few flaws as any player in the draft and is ready to make an instant impact. It remains to be seen whether Keuchly or Jon Beason will play the middle and which one will slide outside. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, the Panthers now have a deep linebacker corps that should be able to stop just about any running game.

RISKIEST MOVE

You could say the Saints made a risky move by using their first draft pick on a player who didn’t even play his college ball in the United States. They drafted Regina (Canada) defensive tackle Akiem Hicks with the No. 89 overall pick in the third round.

The fact Hicks didn’t play against elite completion means there is obvious risk with this pick. But why not take a shot when you’re this late in the third round? Hicks has tremendous upside, and he was good enough to be recruited to LSU before leaving for Canada. The Saints have a great history of discovering gems (Jimmy Graham, Jahri Evans and Marques Colston) later in the draft. They took a risk, but it might pay off.

Hicks should at least have a chance at some playing time early on. The Saints don’t have much behind Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle. Hicks could end up in the rotation very quickly, and the Saints could end up looking very smart for taking this risk.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Bucs haven’t been exciting in any way in quite some time. But they provided virtually all of the excitement within the division in this draft. General manager Mark Dominik shrewdly made some trades that gave the Bucs the ammunition to move up twice and come out of the draft with three instant starters.

Get over the fact that Dominik used the No. 7 overall pick on a safety, Alabama’s Mark Barron. The Bucs weren’t sold on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne for reasons we don’t know. They were sold on Barron, and safety might have been the weakest position on their roster heading into the draft. Trading down from No. 5 to No. 7 started a process in which Dominik was able to manipulate the draft with trades that gave him two other starters -- running back Doug Martin and outside linebacker Lavonte David.

The Bucs traded back into the first round to get Martin late Thursday night. They were without a second-round pick Friday night. But they saw David sitting there, they had the ammunition, and they pounced. No NFC South team needed more help from this draft than the Buccaneers, and Dominik made sure they got help that will matter right from the start.

FILE IT AWAY

Atlanta’s selection of Wisconsin fullback Bradie Ewing in the fifth round might not seem like a big deal on the surface. For now, Ewing is probably nothing more than a special-teams player. But the Falcons also were looking a year or two down the road when they made this pick. Veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli is coming off a major injury, and he’ll turn 32 in June. It was time to find someone to groom as Mughelli’s eventual successor.

The Oakland Raiders’ first pick in the 2012 draft will be near the end of the third round at No. 95. They were awarded the pick (and two others) in the compensatory draft Monday. The Raiders are hoping to score a quality player (perhaps a starting outside linebacker) with the pick. Let’s look at the recent history of the No. 95 pick:


My take: This list is an indication that scoring late in the third round is no sure thing. Graham is, of course, a star and he was the best player taken in his round that year. Manningham is a productive player, but there are also lot of misses on this list.

There’s a lot of talk out there about how Atlanta free agent Curtis Lofton isn’t a three-down linebacker. At the very least, it’s coming from fans and media members. It also might be coming from teams, as Lofton has been making the rounds, but has yet to sign with anyone.

Maybe new Atlanta defensive coordinator Mike Nolan doesn’t view Lofton as a guy he wants on the field on passing downs, and maybe that’s why the middle linebacker was allowed to test free agency in the first place. Maybe other teams are buying into the same theory, and maybe that’s why Lofton hasn’t gotten a big contract.

But I’m wondering if this knock on Lofton is fair and accurate. As far as being fair, I’ll admit Lofton isn’t the best cover guy in the league. But I also don’t think he’s a total liability, unless you put him into one-on-one coverage against someone like New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham. There are a lot of linebackers that struggle with Graham, and that’s why more and more teams are using defensive backs to cover tight ends. In my eyes, Lofton is average (maybe slightly below average) as a cover guy for a middle linebacker.

That’s why I’m wondering how the perception suddenly became that he’s horrible in coverage. The numbers say Lofton was good enough to be a three-down linebacker for the Falcons the past three seasons. The numbers say he was good enough to be on the field for more than 95 percent of Atlanta’s defensive snaps each of the past three seasons.

I went back and looked them up. Lofton played 99 percent (986 of 996) of Atlanta’s defensive snaps last season. In 2010, Lofton was on the field for 933 of Atlanta’s 977 defensive snaps (95.5 percent). In 2009, Lofton participated in 986 of 1,034 defensive snaps (95.4 percent). The only season he wasn’t a three-down linebacker was 2008. That’s when Lofton was a rookie, and the Falcons also had Keith Brooking and Michael Boley. That season, Lofton played in just 55.6 percent (573 of 1,030) of the defensive snaps. But, after that season, Boley and Brooking were gone, and Lofton was elevated to full-time status.

Whatever Lofton lacks in coverage skills, I think he makes up for with his ability as a run-stuffer and a leader. Maybe he doesn’t deserve to be paid like a top-five linebacker. But I think Lofton is a linebacker who can be on the field most of the time.

The Saints had him in for a visit Monday, and the Buccaneers are keeping an eye on Lofton’s situation (mainly to see if his asking price drops). The Falcons already have moved on by signing Lofa Tatupu, and they have second-year pro Akeem Dent.

But the Saints seem to be looking for someone to replace Jonathan Vilma, and the Bucs aren’t sure if they’re keeping Mason Foster in the middle or moving him to the outside. I say one of these two teams should take a shot on Lofton. He’s an upgrade over what the Saints and Bucs currently have in the middle.

For that matter, I also think Lofton is better than what the Falcons currently are planning on going with at middle linebacker. Maybe an Atlanta return remains a possibility, if Lofton's price tag falls far enough.

The man who made the New Orleans Saints could end up breaking them.

Drew Brees arrived in 2006 as the Saints and the city of New Orleans were still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He brought instant credibility, a brand of offense the world had never seen before and sustained success for a franchise that had been hapless through most of its existence. He also played a vital role in rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf South region.

Now, the price tag on all that is coming due. Brees is scheduled to become a free agent on March 13. He and the Saints are negotiating, but the reports indicate the two sides remain far apart. That, in itself is a little unbelievable because the parameters of this deal are obvious. Brees deserves to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.

He’s coming off a year in which he set the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,476) and he should get at least as much as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who average $18 million per year.

I have no doubt that, when all is said and done, Brees will remain with the Saints. If negotiations on a long-term deal continue to fail, the Saints will simply put the franchise tag on their franchise quarterback.

But, either way, this is when we could begin to see the beginning of the end of the Saints as we know them.

They’re not going to be the same team they were last season when they went 13-3. They might not even be the same team they were in 2010 when they went 11-5. And they certainly aren’t going to be the same team they were in the magical 2009 season when they won the Super Bowl.

They’ll have their same quarterback and that’s a great start. But the economics of his contract mean the Saints aren’t going to have the same quality of players at a lot of other positions. That’s not Brees’ fault, or the team’s fault. It’s simply reality in the modern NFL.

By the time next season rolls around and everything has shaken out, the Saints could be taking several steps back. They’ll still have a high-powered offense because they’ll have Brees, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, but that offense might not be quite the machine it’s been the last few seasons. That’s because some parts are going to be gone and they can’t truly be replaced.

On defense, which wasn’t an area of strength to begin with, the Saints have a new coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo, who needs new pieces to execute his scheme. He’s not going to be able to get all he needs – at least not this offseason.

So you’re looking at an offense that probably will be a notch or two below what it’s been in recent seasons. And you’re looking at a defense that’s probably going to be far from dominant.

Gee, that sounds pretty much like the Saints were in 2007 and ’08. They scored a lot of points, but the offense wasn’t quite perfect. The defense was far below perfect. That added up to mediocre seasons that didn’t end in trips to the playoffs.

That could be what the Saints face in 2012.

We haven’t even seen the full fallout yet, but we can start looking ahead and, no matter how you slice it, it’s tough to paint a pretty picture.

Brees isn’t the only big-name free agent the Saints have, but he’s the only one they’re absolutely sure to keep. The same can’t be said for guard Carl Nicks and wide receiver Marques Colston. It definitely can’t be said for receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter, who aren’t on the Nicks/Colston level, but they’ve been valuable contributors.

At absolute best, the Saints will be able to sign Brees and then place the franchise tag on either Nicks or Colston. At worst, they use the franchise tag on Brees and Colston and Nicks both walk.

You don’t replace Nicks. He’s the best guard in the NFL and he may be just hitting his prime. Although the Saints have another very good guard in Jahri Evans, they no longer would have the unquestioned best guard tandem in the NFL.

Without Nicks, Brees would lose his best protector. Any quarterback, even Brees, isn’t quite as good when he’s getting pressured (think back to last season’s stunning loss to St. Louis).

Colston’s probably not on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he’s been Brees’ favorite target since they joined forces in 2006. Colston’s had 1,000-yard receiving seasons in five of his six years. He’s a big target that’s not afraid to go over the middle. Take him away and take Meachem away and the Saints would still have Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Adrian Arrington. Moore and Henderson are nice, experienced receivers, but they don’t do the things Colston does.

And where are you going to get a receiver that does anything close to what Colston does and where are you going to get a guard that’s anywhere near as good as Nicks when you’ve got no cap room to sign free agents and no first-round draft pick?

So let’s subtract a few points a game from the Saints’ offense going forward. And we’re only just beginning to talk about a defense that could end up giving up more points than it has in recent seasons.

This defense isn’t loaded with talent and we soon could see subtraction by subtraction. This salary-cap jam almost certainly will force them to let Porter walk. That’s not that big a deal. The Saints have a top-flight corner in Jabari Greer and it’s pretty apparent they’ve been preparing for Porter’s eventual departure by drafting Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick in recent years.

But the cost of keeping Brees, and maybe Nicks or Colston, means it’s almost certain the Saints are going to have to trim some cap room by releasing some prominent defensive players or at least restructuring their contracts.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith are likely the top two targets for that. Although both are aging and Vilma’s coming off a knee injury, those two have been New Orleans’ defensive leaders throughout coach Sean Payton’s time. Take Vilma away from a group of linebackers that’s ordinary and you’ve got a group of linebackers that’s less than ordinary. And you're without the next guy in the leadership chain after Brees.

Again, the Saints don’t have the currency (cap room or prime draft picks) to make major upgrades here. Take Smith away from a pass rush that hasn’t even been ordinary and you’ve got the potential for huge problems.

Unlike predecessor Gregg Williams, whose defensive philosophy was to be opportunistic and create turnovers, Spagnuolo believes in playing more of a shut-down defense and he likes to generate almost all of his pressure from the front four. With Smith, the Saints have one guy up front that can rush the passer. Without him, they won’t have any.

Good luck trying to find a guy in the middle rounds of the draft or a low-priced free agent that will step right in and give you double-digit sacks. Spagnuolo’s a good coach and his hiring set off celebrations in New Orleans. But a coach is only as good as the players around him and Spagnuolo’s probably not going to have a great deal of defensive talent in his first year.

That could be the story of the Saints in 2012.

They kept their quarterback and that will at least keep them competitive, but they’re not going to be taking steps forward if their roster is wiped out and the cap situation keeps them from being rebuilt.

The Tennessee Titans might be looking for help at safety early in the draft. Could an injury that kept a prime prospect out of the combine help that prospect slip to the Titans at No. 20?

Alabama safety Mark Barron looks to be a player who could solve a big issue in Tennessee. He’s a big (6-foot-1, 213 pounds), rangy playmaker who should be an opening day starter. He played both free and strong safety for Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban.

“Big safety, athletic, smart, rare size and frame,” a scout told me at the combine. “Runs the show in a difficult defense to absorb. Very good kid. No issues. Coaches love him and trust him. Immediate starter wherever he goes. Injury is the only way he is available at 20.”

Barron underwent double sports hernia surgery after the Crimson Tide won the national championship, so he’s still in a rehab stage and didn’t work out at the combine.

“I feel good,” he said. “As far as me working out, I’m just doing rehab. I feel good, I feel like I can do whatever I need to do. I just haven’t been cleared to do certain things. That’s where I’m at right now...

“I don’t have an exact time for when I’ll be 100 percent but I plan on working out late March… From what I’ve heard, it’s not going to really affect anything as far as where I get drafted.”

ESPN’s resident physical therapist Stephania Bell said once Barron’s fully healed from the sports hernias, he won’t have a health issue.

Titans GM Ruston Webster said he doesn’t think an injury that won’t be a concern down the road generally has much impact on the draft position of a player.

“People are going to draft off what they see on film,” he said. “… Mark Barron is a big, tough, instinctive safety. He’s got size, he can play in the box and he can play deep.”

Like guards, safeties are generally not regarded as first-round priorities. Jeremy Mills of ESPN Stats & Information said 4.4 percent of first-round picks have been used on safeties over the past 10 years. Nearly three times as many first-round picks have been used on corners in that timeframe.

I understand that when there isn’t much talent there, as the case was last year. Rahim Moore was the first safety off the board in 2011, 13 picks into the second round to Denver. There wasn't a safety selected in the first round in 2009, either.

But any chance at a difference-making safety should be regarded the same as at any other position. Maybe it should be viewed as an even bigger opportunity, because it's rarer.

“I feel like it’s very hard for us safeties to get in the first round, so I think that shows you that the position of safety is being undervalued,” Barron said. “… If a guy’s a good player, then he’s just a good player. I don’t see why, position-wise, if you have a better player that’s a safety and then you have a corner that might not be a better football player, I don’t see a reason why the corner should go ahead of the safety.

“I’ve seen it happen. I just don’t understand it but that’s not my position to pick.”

When the Titans drafted Texas safety Michael Griffin 19th overall in 2007, they were oddly wary of how the move would be regarded. They went on an extensive, pointless charade of calling him a cornerback. After wasting a lot of time with him at corner, he started the seventh game of his rookie season -- at safety.

Now he’s heading for free agency. The Titans would be wise to attempt to upgrade rather than retain him, as he’s far too inconsistent, missing tackles at key times and playing his best only when those around him are doing the same. I want my safeties to be steady.

The Titans' GM-turned-president, Mike Reinfeldt, was a successful NFL safety. Griffin was Tennessee’s first first-round pick with Reinfeldt at the helm. Webster is now the GM who will have the strong hand in making the draft-day calls, and the Titans shouldn’t be wary of taking a safety in the first round again if Barron is there -- provided they've not restocked in free agency.

The importance of a player like him is on the rise.

He can be a key countermeasure in gaining ground in nightmare matchups with tight ends such as Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez of the Patriots and Jimmy Graham of the Saints.

“He can cover tight ends,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said of Barron. “I need him to cover Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and he can do that.”

Not all analysts are in love with the Alabama safety, however.

“I think there is a good chance there will be no safeties that get drafted in the first round,” said Russ Lande, a former scout who now is a draft analyst for The Sporting News and GM Jr. “The reality is Barron is a good football player, but he’s not a premier athlete and there are teams that definitely have questions about his ability to be effective in deep pass coverage.

“Although I think he’s a good player who’s going to be a solid starter, I think there is a real likelihood he will be there at 20, that he will even be there in the second round.”

One of the things most teams do like about Barron is his experience at Alabama. He was the glue of a complex defense. The Titans will likely be more straightforward, but they sure could use a guy like that.

The team that drafts Barron will be expecting an intelligent player who can be plugged in, learn quickly and reliably play a scheme.

“We played in a very difficult defense, first of all,” Barron said. “We did a lot of different schemes. As far as communicating, I had a lot to do with that on the back end. I feel like sometimes I brought some energy with the hits that I made and things of that nature. So, I did a lot of different things.”

INDIANAPOLIS -- Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley just skipped through Lucas Oil Stadium, stopping to speak with a handful of reporters before meeting with general manager Ted Thompson here to finalize his new two-year contract.

Finley made clear that he didn't want to test the open market and couldn't envision a better situation for his future growth -- and another payday -- than Green Bay. As we discussed earlier Thursday, Finley could put himself in prime position in 2014, when the NFL's salary cap is expected to rise and two of the NFL's best tight ends, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, probably will have signed lucrative extensions.

"It was a no-brainer to sign a two-year deal," Finley said, "and come back to the table at 26 when Jimmy Graham done hit it and Gronkowski done hit it and raised the market. I'm going to be back then, knocking on the door."

As a blog community, I think we can all say we're looking forward to it.

First in a daily series on NFC North players who are candidates to receive their team's franchise tag. The window for tagging players opens Monday and closes March 5.

The Green Bay Packers have several candidates for their franchise tag, but most public discussion has centered around tight end Jermichael Finley. He is part of a Packers free agent class that also includes quarterback Matt Flynn and center Scott Wells, but the price tag for quarterbacks (projected to be $14 million) makes Flynn a less likely franchise target. Conventional wisdom, meanwhile, suggests the Packers should be able to reach an amicable long-term agreement with Wells.

Finley's case is interesting on several levels. As we noted during the regular season, the NFL's new collective bargaining agreement changed the calculations for franchise tags in a way that makes it a more attractive tool for the Packers to retain Finley's rights. The franchise tag is no longer the average of the five highest-paid players at a given position. Instead, it is the average of the highest salaries at the position over the past five seasons.

Franchise numbers for 2012 haven't been announced, but it's expected to be around $5.5 million for tight ends. From a team standpoint, that figure is quite reasonable for a 24-year-old tight end who caught a career-high eight touchdown passes in the first 16-game season of his career in 2011. From a financial standpoint, most NFL teams would be happy to lock up an ascending free agent tight end for $5.5 million in cash and salary-cap commitment.

Is there anything Finley can do to fight that eventuality, short of holding out? Although neither Finley nor his agent have spoken publicly about it, several media outlets have suggested the possibility that he could declare himself a wide receiver, based on how often the Packers use him in the slot or split wide. That designation would qualify Finley for a significantly higher franchise number, perhaps double the one for tight ends, and give him more leverage in a long-term negotiation.

There is some precedent for appealing the position classification for franchise players. In 2008, Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs spurred the NFL and NFL Players Association to create a new defensive end-linebacker position for the 3-4 scheme. The change elevated his franchise value by about $500,000.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Finley lined up as a receiver on a little less than half of his total snaps in 2011 (roughly 409 of 883). I'm not sure if he could argue he is a wide receiver, but you wonder if the recent trend toward receiving tight ends -- led by the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski and the New Orleans Saints' Jimmy Graham -- might eventually lead to a new hybrid franchise tag.

In the end, Finley's value lies in his production relative to his position. He had one of the better seasons for a tight end in the NFL last season, catching 55 passes for 767 yards to go along with the eight touchdowns. But if you applied those numbers to a receiver, they would hardly be considered elite.

It's usually a better situation for all parties to find common ground on a long-term contract. But unless the franchise tag for tight ends turns out to be much higher than projected, the Packers are in a fine spot with one of their best players.

Let’s assume New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis is able to work out a deal to re-sign quarterback Drew Brees. It will be complicated and expensive, but it’s also pretty much guaranteed to happen.

The Saints want it to happen, Brees wants it to happen and every Louisiana resident from Bogalusa to Lake Charles wants it to happen. Then, let’s assume that Loomis also is able to find a way to re-sign guard Carl Nicks and receiver Marques Colston. Those assumptions aren’t as solid as Brees re-signing because there are only so many ways to cut the pie that is the salary cap.

But, let’s just hypothetically say, Loomis, who has a pretty good track record, gets all three deals done. Aside from re-signing a few lower-level free agents, maybe bringing in a free agent or two and conducting a draft without a first-round pick, Loomis’ work would seem to be pretty much done. But that may not be the case.

The Saints have another potential contract situation percolating. As best I know, there haven’t been any threats or holdouts, but the Saints almost have to do something about the contract of tight end Jimmy Graham.

He remains under contract through 2013. Perhaps more than any other player in the NFL, Graham has outperformed his contract and that generally leads to a new deal.

In 2011, only his second year in the NFL, Graham had one of the best seasons ever by a tight end. He caught 99 passes for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s 25 and he’s only going to get better.

When you look at Graham’s production and potential, it’s easy to make a case he’s the NFL’s most underpaid tight end. Heck, he might be the most underpaid player in the NFL, period.

Graham’s still playing on his rookie contract, which was standard for the third-round pick he was in 2010. But he’s scheduled to make only $540,000 in 2012 and $575,000 in 2013.

Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez signed a one-year extension at the end of the 2011 season that will pay him just about $7 million. Gonzalez might be the best tight ever. But Gonzalez also is on the downside of his career and I don’t think there’s any doubt Graham’s better at this point.

In 2011, the average tight end salary was $1.27 million and Graham’s far better than average. In terms of average per year, Graham ranked No. 33 in the NFL, according to contracts that were in effect for 2011. For context, Tampa Bay backup Luke Stocker ranked two spots ahead of Graham.

I think you can make a pretty strong case that Graham needs to jump up at least 30 spots to be paid what he’s worth. Again, I don’t think Graham’s threatening a holdout and he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would resort to that kind of tactic.

But Graham is obviously a core player for the Saints and he’s a guy they want to keep happy. Yeah, they could play hardball and make Graham play out his rookie contract. But that’s bound to create at least some resentment.

The guy has become one of the league’s two or three best tight ends. It doesn’t have to happen immediately. But, at some point, the Saints need to pay Graham like one of the league’s best tight ends.

As they near their 50^th year of existence, the New Orleans Saints finally have a legacy.

The arrival of coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees in 2006 has made the Saints one of the league’s top teams since and they won the franchise’s first Super Bowl in the 2009 season. But the real cool thing is the recent success undoubtedly has helped people remember some of the bright spots of what had been a mostly inglorious franchise history.

The latest example of that came Saturday as offensive tackle Willie Roaf was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This summer, Roaf joins linebacker Rickey Jackson, a 2010 inductee, as the only player to spend the bulk of his career with the Saints in the Hall of Fame.

Roaf’s selection was more than deserved. In a 13-year career, he was an All-Pro seven times and a Pro Bowl selection 11 times. He also was selected to the All-Decade team for the 1990s and 2000s.

Roaf played for the Saints from 1993 through 2001 and then went onto finish his career with the Kansas City Chiefs. His final season was 2005. There’s no doubt Kansas City fans are celebrating this one as well, but this is bigger for New Orleans because Roaf spent the bulk of his career there.

The Saints weren’t great during Roaf’s tenure. They won two NFC West titles (that’s the division they played in before the NFC South came into existence in 2002), but little else. That could have worked against Roaf, but it didn’t. His résumé was strong enough because he was viewed as one of the elite tackles of his era.

He and Jackson now represent the Saints in the Hall of Fame, even though this isn’t like baseball’s Hall of Fame, where an inductee has to choose which team’s cap he wants forever on his plaque.

Roaf did some time with Kansas City and Jackson also played in San Francisco. But they’ll be viewed mostly as Saints and that’s great for the franchise’s legacy.

There’s some pride from the old days now and the legacy is only going to continue to grow with the success of the modern-era Saints. It’s a virtual certainty that Brees will join Jackson and Roaf five years after his retirement. And there could be more. Tight end Jimmy Graham is only in his second season, but he’s showing signs he can be an all-time great.

Guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks are generally viewed as the best in the league at their position. If they keep that going, they could also get there. If Payton continues to pile up wins and offensive records, he someday could be a candidate.

The Saints have built a legacy through the years, but Roaf’s selection takes it to another level and there’s going to be plenty more to come.

The 2011 season was memorable across the NFC South for many reasons, both good and bad. We saw the Saints go 13-3 while setting all sorts of records and we saw Tampa Bay fall apart about as completely as any team ever has.

We saw the Atlanta Falcons, at times, look like a great team and, at other times, look very ordinary. We saw the rebirth of the Carolina Panthers, who ended the season as a team very much on the rise.

So let’s take a look back at the season with a lists of awards and “bests’’ and “worsts’’.

Most Valuable Player: This one’s as easy as it gets. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees carried the Saints and set a new single-season record for passing yardage.

Most Valuable Player (non-quarterback): This one’s not all that difficult either. New Orleans’ Darren Sproles set a new NFL record for all-purpose yards. He also made it impossible for opposing defenses to match up with the Saints.

Defensive Player of the Year: This one’s difficult because the NFC South isn’t known for strong defense. It also didn’t help that Carolina linebacker Jon Beason, who might be the division’s best overall defensive player, missed almost the entire year with an injury, and New Orleans middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma was slowed by a knee injury most of the season. That’s why I’m going with Atlanta’s Sean Weatherspoon. Look around the division and tell me if there’s a guy who makes more big plays. I couldn’t find one.

Rookie of the Year: This is almost as easy as giving Brees the MVP. Carolina’s Cam Newton wins easily. He set a rookie record for passing yards and had more rushing touchdowns in a season than any quarterback in NFL history. His “Superman’’ celebration truly fits.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: This one’s not as obvious as Newton. But when you give it a little thought, Tampa Bay defensive end Adrian Clayborn easily was the best rookie defender in the division. Clayborn was one of only about two or three bright spots for the Bucs. He showed he’s a complete defensive end — one who can rush the passer and play the run.

Best Performance by a Second-Year Player: Weatherspoon was a candidate for this, but the nod goes to New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham. He had one of the best seasons ever by a tight end. I know the Saints have a lot of pressing contract issues and Graham is under contract for three more seasons. But at some point this offseason, they should give Graham an extension and a huge pay raise. Graham’s only making minimum wage. If ever a player has outperformed his contract, it’s Graham.

Coach of the Year: I respect the job Ron Rivera did in Carolina, but I’ve got to go with New Orleans’ Sean Payton. He got his team to 13 wins, despite having his knee shattered in a sideline collision.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Prior to Payton’s injury, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael had lived in the shadows of the head coach. But Carmichael started calling the plays when Payton went down. Payton let that continue the rest of the season and the Saints kept winning.

Executive of the Year: It has to be Carolina general manager Marty Hurney. In one offseason, he hit two home runs on two of the biggest challenges a general manager can face. He hired Rivera, who is well on his way to being a good head coach. More important, Hurney found a franchise quarterback in Newton. Many doubted Newton prior to the draft. Hurney did his homework and it paid off.

Best Turnaround: The Panthers might have won only six games, but that’s triple what they won last year.

Worst Collapse: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had one of the biggest collapses in NFL history. They started 4-2, then lost their final 10 games while appearing totally out of control on and off the field.

Best Offseason Move: There’s no doubt it was the signing of Sproles. He was the best free-agent signing in the entire NFL. And for those Tampa Bay fans who like to bash their ownership and front office for not bringing in Sproles, the fact is you never had a chance. The Bucs and other teams made inquiries about Sproles, but were told it wasn’t going to happen. All along, Sproles was headed nowhere else but New Orleans, for a reunion with former San Diego teammate Brees. They continued spending their offseasons together. Brees was recruiting Sproles throughout the lockout and, in New Orleans, Brees gets whatever he wants.

Worst Offseason Move: That would be Tampa Bay not finding a running back to pair with LeGarrette Blount. It didn’t have to be Sproles and the Bucs weren’t wrong in letting Cadillac Williams go. But they should have gotten a legitimate NFL running back who could catch passes out of the backfield and pass-block. Blount can’t do either — and the Bucs made a severe miscalculation by thinking he could be an every-down back.

Best Bounce-Back Season: The winner here is Carolina receiver Steve Smith. In the offseason, he wasn’t sure he wanted to stay in Carolina. Once he caught a few passes from Newton, everything changed. Smith was back to being the dominant receiver he was a few years back.

Worst Disappearing Act: Soon after signing with the Atlanta Falcons, defensive end Ray Edwards proclaimed himself the "missing link.'' Instead of leading the Falcons to a Super Bowl, Edwards simply was missing most of the season. He played the run all right, but Atlanta’s pass rush didn’t improve and that’s why he was signed.

Best Off-Field Decision: You can accuse Tampa Bay’s ownership management of being inept all you want. After a 4-12 season, it’s fair game. But someone very high hope with the Bucs made an excellent decision when the team turned down the opportunity to appear on HBO’s “Hard Knocks.’’ Whoever that wise person was realized that it might not be such a great idea to open the organization to cameras around the clock. Those cameras could have captured things wouldn’t have looked great – things like assistant coaches trying unsuccessfully to explain the uncomplicated art of pass-blocking to Blount or a gregarious former coach taking the camera crew on a late-night tour of Tampa.

Equipment Manager of the Year: That’s Carolina’s Jackie Miles, of course. I used to say Derrick Brooks was the best player in NFC South history. Now, I’ll admit Brees has at least caught up to Brooks and maybe surpassed him. But, if I had to pick a third guy who’s the best at what he does in the history of the division, it would be Miles. To those who know him, the man’s a legend in many ways and could end up being the first equipment manager in the Hall of Fame.

It was a big year for offense in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints set all sorts of records. The Carolina Panthers lit up scoreboards and, when the Atlanta Falcons were on, they sometimes were spectacular.

That made for some difficult choices, but here’s my All-NFC South offense.

Tackle: Jordan Gross, Panthers. He’s getting along in years, but Gross is still the best tackle in the division.

Tackle: Jermon Bushrod, Saints. This was a really tough call because Tampa Bay’s Donald Penn seemed destined for this spot, but his play slipped as the Bucs collapsed and lost their last 10 games. I refuse to put any offensive lineman from Atlanta on this team, so I’m going with Bushrod almost by default. I know he made the Pro Bowl, but I’m not convinced Bushrod is anything more than an ordinary left tackle. But he’s better than any other tackle the NFC South had to offer.

Guard: Carl Nicks, Saints. He might be the best guard in the NFL.

Guard: Jahri Evans, Saints. If Nicks isn’t the best guard in the NFL, then Evans is.

Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers. He’s becoming a Pro Bowl regular and might be the best center in the league.

Wide receiver: Steve Smith, Panthers. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton came along and revitalized Smith’s career. But I also think Smith deserves a lot of the credit for Newton’s success.

Wide receiver: Marques Colston, Saints. I went back and forth on this one between Colston and Atlanta’s Roddy White and Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams also got some consideration. I’m joking. Williams didn’t get one bit of consideration. White’s numbers were slightly better than Colston’s in terms of catches and receiving yards. But Colston missed a couple games with a broken collarbone and still had very nice numbers in an offense where there are a ton of other options. White had nice numbers, but he didn’t look like the dominant receiver he was a year ago. White led the league in drops.

Tight end: Jimmy Graham, Saints. This one was easy. Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez had a very nice season and is the best tight end in history. But Graham had one of the most prolific seasons ever by a tight end in only his second season. Graham should only continue to get better and, if he stays healthy, he could eventually pass Gonzalez as the best tight end ever.

Fullback: Jed Collins, Saints. In his first real NFL season (Collins was with Cleveland in 2008), he emerged as a steady role player in the league’s best offense. Collins didn’t have much in the way of numbers, but his blocking was a key factor in the offenses’ success. If Atlanta’s Ovie Mughelli hadn’t gotten injured, he’d be in this spot. But Collins is a worthy replacement.

Running back: Darren Sproles, Saints. Sproles ended up with an NFL record for all-purpose yards. Out of the backfield, he contributed as a runner and receiver and created enormous matchup problems for opposing defenses.

Running back: Michael Turner. Yeah, I'm going with two running backs because it's my team, I can want and there are two guys that deserve to be on here. Turner looked slow for most of the second half of the season. But he still rushed for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's not a bad season by any measure.

Quarterback: Drew Brees, Saints. He threw for a league-record 5,476 yards and also passed for 46 touchdowns. Brees has been great for a long time, but he took his game to another level. He’s the reason the Saints won 13 games without a defense.

Drew Brees is capable of many great things. But you can’t go to the miracle well 63 times in a game and expect it to produce every time.

That was proved Saturday as Brees and the New Orleans Saints lost 36-32 in a divisional playoff game to the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.

History will tell us this was one of the best games in playoff annals, coming as it did with four lead changes in the final 5 minutes and San Francisco’s winning touchdown with 9 seconds remaining. History will be right, because this game was exciting all the way around.

But the surrounding hysteria might get in the way of history, so let’s go ahead and go on the record with one very important item that cannot be overlooked: You can’t go deep into the postseason with Brees and Brees alone.

That’s what the Saints tried to do, and it came painfully close to working. They had Brees attempt 63 passes. He completed 40 of them, and it looked like he had the miracle the Saints needed when he hit tight end Jimmy Graham with a 66-yard touchdown pass with 1:37 left.

But football -- particularly when it’s in the postseason and on the road -- is about much more than a quarterback, even if he’s surrounded with Graham, Darren Sproles and Marques Colston.

You must have defense, special teams and a running game. The Saints had none of those things against the 49ers, and that’s why they lost.

They simply asked too much from Brees, and they should have known better.

Just go back and look at New Orleans’ three losses during the regular season. There’s a little lesson here.

In the opener at Lambeau Field, Brees attempted 49 passes -- a number that would end up as his regular-season high. He lost a shootout to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, and there’s no shame in that. But look closely at the Saints' other two losses, because they came against inferior opponents. In an Oct. 16 defeat to Tampa Bay, the last game the Buccaneers won, Brees attempted 45 passes.

Oh, and then there’s that inexplicable loss to St. Louis two weeks later. Brees attempted 44 passes in that game. Win either the St. Louis or Tampa Bay game, and the Saints are the No. 2 seed and playing at home, where they were undefeated in the regular season.

There’s a line of demarcation where too much Brees becomes a bad thing. It’s somewhere in the low 40s. Yeah, Brees threw 44 times in victories against Houston and Jacksonville, 45 times in a three-point win over Carolina and 47 in a December victory against Tennessee. But none of those was pretty, and Houston was the only playoff team among that bunch.

In games in which Brees attempted 43 or fewer passes, the Saints were 8-0. They also were at their best in those games. They had a running game, some defense and no huge mistakes by the special teams.

But the Saints apparently didn’t notice that trend. They put too much on Brees on Saturday, and they did have some valid reasons for that. Brees didn’t help matters with two interceptions, and the Saints turned the ball over three times in the first quarter.

They fell behind 17-0. Then, they let Brees bring them back but didn’t do anything to help him. The running game, which had been so much better than last season’s, was nonexistent. Sproles, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas combined for only 13 rushing attempts and 32 yards.

Thomas left the game with an apparent concussion after losing a fumble near the goal line in the first quarter. Without him, the New Orleans offense became predictable. When Ivory was in the game, it was obvious the Saints were running. When Sproles was in there, it was obvious they were throwing.

And they threw way too often against a defense that can generate pressure. On his 63 drop-backs, Brees was sacked three times. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Brees was under duress an additional 17 times. When under duress, Brees completed five of 16 attempts (31.3 percent). Brees also threw away five passes after throwing away only eight during the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs.

Again, there should have been a lesson from the regular season. The most times Brees was sacked or under duress (17) was in the St. Louis loss. Against Green Bay, Brees was sacked or under duress on 12 of his drop-backs.

The more often you have Brees drop back, the more you’re asking for trouble, especially when you have two All-Pros at guard but very ordinary tackles.

However, the biggest letdown of all came from the defense. It happened twice after Brees brought the Saints all the way back to take the lead.

The New Orleans defense was pretty good in the 2009 championship season, but it’s fallen off dramatically since then. After doing a decent job against the 49ers most of the game, it totally collapsed in the final four minutes.

The Saints allowed Alex Smith to score on a 28-yard run, the longest of his career. No one should ever confuse the slow-footed Smith with Steve Young. But now, in addition to Young, he’s going to get compared to Joe Montana.

After the late touchdown to Graham, Smith took the 49ers on a drive for the ages. He hit tight end Vernon Davis with a 14-yard touchdown pass to win the game with 9 seconds left. Matched up against strong safety Roman Harper most of the game, Davis finished with seven catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints should have known going into the game that Harper on Davis was a huge mismatch, but they kept letting it happen and they kept making Smith look great when it mattered most.

This game showed what’s been suspected since after the Saints won their Super Bowl. Their defense isn’t that good anymore.

That’s obvious now, and there are bound to be ripples, maybe even big waves, after this loss. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ contract just expired, and there already has been speculation he could be joining his old buddy Jeff Fisher in St. Louis. Coach Sean Payton, who once gave up part of his own salary to get Williams, might not stand in the way of a move after this one.

It’s going to be a busy offseason for the Saints. They must sign Brees to a new contract because his deal is up. The Saints have other expensive potential free agents such as Colston and guard Carl Nicks.

There’s no doubt the Saints will keep Brees and, in the process, probably make him the league’s highest-paid quarterback. But as they look at their salary-cap situation after taking care of Brees, they should take a long, hard look at their roster.

It’s time for some changes. You can do all sorts of flashy things and break lots of records by letting Brees carry your team. But he can win a championship only when he has some help around him.

It’s time to give Brees that help.

Thoughts on the New Orleans Saints’ 36-32 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday at Candlestick Park.

What it means: You can’t defy conventional wisdom. In a game that will go down as a postseason classic, the Saints broke almost every rule and tradition. But they still lost in the end, as tight end Vernon Davis scored a touchdown with 9 seconds remaining. That capped a game that had four lead changes in the final 3 minutes, 53 seconds. The Saints came painfully close to proving they could win on the road, outdoors and in the postseason. They almost showed you can turn the ball over five times and still win. They also came close to proving wrong the old adage that defense wins championships. But there were no miracles this time.

What I liked: The game was as exciting as any you’ll ever see. It had drama and surprises from start to finish. San Francisco jumped out to a 17-0 lead at home, but Drew Brees rallied his team and put the Saints right back in the game. New Orleans’ defense played surprisingly well most of the day, right up until the end.

What I didn’t like: New Orleans’ defense folded when it mattered most. Alex Smith, who has never been confused with Tim Tebow, broke loose on a fourth-quarter touchdown run. Then, after Brees put the Saints ahead with a touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham, the defense collapsed again. Smith, who had been considered a bust for most of his career, brought back memories of Steve Young and Joe Montana with his game-winning drive. Davis abused strong safety Roman Harper most of the day, and he did it again when it mattered most.

What’s next: An offseason that’s starting sooner than expected for the Saints. There are some key personnel matters to deal with. Brees is no longer under contract. He undoubtedly will return to the Saints, but he’s going to take up a lot of salary-cap room. With Marques Colston, Carl Nicks and several other key players scheduled to become free agents, the Saints will have to make some big decisions. They also could have change on the coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ contract is expiring, and there is speculation he could be joining his old friend Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.