ESPN NFL

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Saints in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): The ending of this dream is simple. It ends exactly where it starts -- in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. That’s the site of this season’s Super Bowl and there’s no sweeter vision in the eyes of Saints’ fans than watching their team win the NFL’s biggest spectacle at home. If revenge is sweet, this would be 1,000 times sweeter.

New Orleans fans and players are mad about how severely the NFL punished the Saints for their bounty program. They would love it if Roger Goodell hands the Saints the Lombardi Trophy in their own building.

It actually could happen. Think about it: Other than suspended coach Sean Payton, the Saints really haven’t lost that much from a team that went 13-3 last season. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma also is suspended for the entire season, but Vilma’s age (30) started to show last year. The Saints are better off with Curtis Lofton at middle linebacker. The Saints also will have to get through the first four games without suspended defensive end Will Smith.

But, other than that, this team remains loaded with talent. Drew Brees and the offense always will put up a bunch of points. If new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can make the defense better, the Saints easily are a playoff team. They’ll be motivated by an us-against-the-world mentality, so anything is at least possible.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): It’s easy to say Payton had a great system in place and a veteran team, so the assistants can just run the show and it will be business as usual. I tend to agree with that theory. But what if the importance of a head coach is even greater than we realized? And what if the emotional weight of the most turbulent offseason in NFL history catches up to the Saints?

That’s when all bets are off and when things could start falling apart. Since winning the Super Bowl in the 2009 season, the defense hasn’t been very good. The greatness of the offense has been enough to carry the Saints to the playoffs the past two seasons, but it hasn’t been great enough to carry them deep into the postseason. There’s no doubting Spagnuolo has a good defensive mind, but he might not have all the personnel he needs to run his scheme successfully.

Well, the easy thing to say is the offense will carry this team no matter what. But even if Payton wasn’t suspended, it’s hard to imagine the offense being even more productive than last season. Take Brees and the offense back down to what they were in 2007 and ’08, give New Orleans a defense that’s no better than last year and the Saints could tumble to a middle-of-the-pack team.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:

Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia last offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.

Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.

The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.

Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame Game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.

By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.

For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.

James Harrison doesn't always criticize NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in a tasteful manner, but you have to give the Steelers linebacker some credit for standing up to him again and again.

Other players would have gone silent after receiving more than $100,000 in fines from the NFL and becoming the first player suspended under the league's stricter guidelines for player safety. Not Harrison. He goes after Goodell harder than he does Joe Flacco.

Harrison doesn't take shots at Goodell simply out of bitterness. His beef is with Goodell's power, which goes unchecked in certain situations.

That's why Harrison is applauding Jonathan Vilma's defamation lawsuit against Goodell. "It is really a win-win, whether he wins the case or if he loses it," Harrison said Wednesday. "If he loses it, it shows that Goodell does have too much power and if he wins it, it opens up the floodgates."

You can dislike Harrison for his controversial hits. You can think Harrison is disrespectful and crossed the line with Goodell last year when he said, "If that man was on fire and I had to piss to put him out, I wouldn't do it. I hate him and will never respect him."

Still, you have to be impressed how Harrison doesn't care that he puts a bigger target on his back every time he speaks out like this. He's been fined. He's been suspended. But Harrison won't be muted when it comes to Goodell.

Don’t look for quick rulings on the appeals of the suspensions of New Orleans linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith.

Wrapping up an owners meeting in Atlanta, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said he will not rule on the appeals until after grievances filed by the NFL Players Association have been resolved. One grievance previously was heard by an arbitrator, but not ruling has been issued. Another grievance is scheduled to be heard by a system arbitrator May 30. Goodell also said he can foresee a release of evidence in the Saints’ bounty scandal after the appeals process is over.

Goodell declined comment on a defamation lawsuit filed by Vilma.

Goodell said he knows a lot of fans are unhappy with the suspensions he’s handed out to players, coaches and Saints general manager Mickey Loomis. Appeals for Loomis and the coaches already have been heard and their suspensions have been upheld. But Goodell said he’s looking forward to meeting with the players during the appeals process.

“That’s what the appeals process is for,’’ Goodell said. “You want to hear what the players have to say. When we get to the appeals, we’ll be able to talk about it and we’ll be able to hear from one another.’’

Welcome to Courtroom Football, the sequel. Following the 2011 version, “The Lockout,” we now have the 2012 version, “The Bounties.”

Following NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s suspensions of Saints head coach Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis, which went (relatively) smoothly, Goodell’s player suspensions haven't been received quietly.

The NFLPA first filed two grievances -- one heard Wednesday, one to be heard on May 30 -- advancing different legal theories to remove jurisdiction from Goodell. Now Jonathan Vilma has raised the stakes with a defamation lawsuit against Goodell. Seeking to clear his name and reputation -- and perhaps pick up monetary damages along the way -- Vilma has filed in his “home court” in the Eastern District of Louisiana, requesting a jury trial in front of likely Saints fans.

The suit advances two basic arguments:

Defamatory statements

The comments at issue are 1) a March 2 memo and March 21 release, both alleging Vilma had offered $10,000 to any player who knocked Brett Favre out of the NFC Championship Game in 2010, and 2) a May 2 release alleging Vilma assisted Gregg Williams in establishing and funding the bounty program, and that Vilma had personally placed a bounty on Kurt Warner and Favre.

Vilma argues, as he has tweeted publicly, that he neither established a bounty program nor contributed any funds to such an enterprise.

Vilma argues Goodell’s statements are false and injurious to Vilma’s professional and personal reputation, a reputation tarnished to the public, to NFL clubs, and to future potential employers outside the NFL.

Need for evidence

Vilma argues that Goodell has not revealed any direct evidence demonstrating the Saints bounty program existed, relying on “at best, hearsay, circumstantial evidence and lies." This merges with the NFLPA’s repeated requests for more detailed and specific evidence.

With Goodell having negotiated -- through the collective bargaining agreement -- the continuing right to be the ultimate arbiter on player conduct, the NFLPA has no ability to go inside Goodell’s decision-making process. Now that Vilma has taken this out of the realm of the personal conduct policy into court, the NFLPA hopes that -- through Vilma -- this will provide them the evidence they have been requesting.

NFL response

Goodell’s lawyers -- and there is quite a roster -- will immediately try to have the case dismissed, arguing Vilma's claims are “pre-empted, ” as disputes between players and the commissioner are expressly governed by the CBA.

In the event the case is not dismissed, Goodell will argue that Vilma, as a well-known NFL player, is a "public figure" thus required to show "actual malice" and knowingly false statements by Goodell, a high standard of proof.

My sense is that the NFL’s concern here is less with the merits of the defamation suit and more with the discovery phase of the trial, if it gets to that, where Goodell would have to disclose sensitive information that he has been unwilling to share with the NFLPA or the public to this point.

Where there is a lot of money at stake, and there is here, there will be lawyers and lawsuits. Welcome to the return of Courtroom Football. Stay tuned.

New Orleans Saints fans, who have been screaming for the NFL to produce more evidence in the bounty scandal, just might get their wish.

Linebacker Jonathan Vilma has filed a defamation lawsuit against NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. The suit claims Goodell made false statements about Vilma while discussing the league’s investigation of the bounty system. Vilma has drawn the harshest punishment of any player, drawing a suspension for the 2012 season. The league has identified Vilma as a leader of the bounty program and said he put up money as an incentive for Saints defenders to injure opponents.

Vilma has repeatedly denied those allegations and he did it again Thursday on his Twitter account.

"As I've said before..I NEVER PAID, NOR INTENDED TO PAY ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY,TO ANY PLAYER FOR INTENTIONALLY HURTING AN OPPONENT. "Maybe this will get some people(‘s) attention."

Vilma already has appealed the suspension to Goodell and the NFL Players Association has filed grievances on behalf of Vilma and the three other suspended players. But the lawsuit against Goodell ups the stakes.

It may take the ball out of the NFL’s court. When Goodell was playing judge and jury, the NFL only revealed the evidence it wanted to. In a court of law, the NFL could be forced to reveal all of its evidence and where it came from.

The lawsuit asks for unspecified legal damages, but I don’t think Vilma is simply looking for money. I think he’s trying to clear his name and resume his career. Vilma is the only person to take to the legal system so far, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the coaches, administrators or other players who have been punished or named in the investigation follow his lead.

Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless discuss Jonathan Vilma's tweets about his meeting with an arbitrator about his penalty for the Saints' bounty program.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the New Orleans Saints and why.

Long before the news of the bounty scandal broke, it was clear the Saints needed to do something dramatic on defense. Gregg Williams’ system worked nicely in the 2009 season as the Saints went on to win the Super Bowl. But defensive breakdowns were the main reason why the Saints lost a playoff game to Seattle in the 2010 season and to San Francisco last season.

That’s why the Saints quickly replaced Williams with Steve Spagnuolo as soon as the season ended. His chore is to build a more consistent defense and get away from Williams’ philosophy of taking big gambles in hopes of producing turnovers. Spagnuolo’s had success before by getting pressure almost exclusively from his front four and letting the back seven focus on pass coverage and run support. But middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma has been suspended for the season and defensive end Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games.

The Saints added Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne and they should make up for the loss of Vilma. But while Smith is out and even after he returns, Spagnuolo has to find ways to get a strong pass rush from a group of guys (aside from Smith) that don’t have a strong history of putting pressure on the quarterback. Spagnuolo’s defense doesn’t have to be dominant.

If the Saints can just come up with some stops at key times, Drew Brees and the offense are good enough to outscore anyone.

Mort sees big things for the Chiefs this year, Cris Carter elaborates on his bounty comments, and the 32 Crew has some advice for Adrian Peterson when he returns from knee surgery.

New Orleans Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who has been suspended for the entire 2012 season for his role in the team's bounty system, appealed his suspension Monday.

Appeals of player suspensions in the New Orleans Saints’ bounty program haven’t been filed yet, but the NFL Players Association has gone ahead and started the legal ball rolling.

The union filed a grievance with the NFL’s vice president of labor arbitration and litigation, Buckley Brooks. The NFLPA also has asked for system arbitration.

The filings claim that the punishments “violated the (league’s) duty of fairness to the players.” The union also claims various procedural requirements of the collective-bargaining agreement were violated, including the limits of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s authority, and a failure to disclose sufficient evidence.

The league has said all along that the ultimate decision on any discipline rested with Goodell.

The union also claims that a big chunk of the three-year bounty program doesn’t even qualify for discipline. The union says that part of the collective-bargaining agreement, signed last summer, stipulated that the league agreed to overlook any conduct matters from prior to the agreement.

Much of the specific evidence cited in the announcement of the punishments was related to games in the playoffs at the end of the 2009 Super Bowl season.

New Orleans linebacker Jonathan Vilma has been suspended for the entire 2012 season, and linebacker Will Smith will be suspended for the first four games. Former New Orleans defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove, now with Green Bay, drew an eight-game suspension, and linebacker Scott Fujita, now with Cleveland, will be suspended for the first three games.

An attorney from the private sector who advised the NFL during the Saints bounty investigation disputed linebacker Jonathan Vilma's claim that he did not intend to pay bounties for knocking Kurt Warner and Brett Favre out of playoff games in the 2009 season and the he never set out to intentionally hurt another player.

“The evidence overwhelmingly supported the charges,’’ Mary Jo White, a former U.S. attorney, said in a conference call with the media Thursday. “I haven’t seen the statement that Mr. Vilma may have issued. He plainly, as were the other players, was invited to participate with counsel in an interview to provide his side of the story if there was a different side of the story. He declined to do that.

“If you look at the press release issued yesterday, plainly the conduct there is quite specific as to bounties being pledged by Mr. Vilma. On two occasions, you know the identities of whom the bounties were placed on, the amount of the bounties and when they were placed. There is very, very strong evidence from multiple independent sources reporting those charges.’’

White also said that defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove (now with the Green Bay Packers) said he was told to lie about the bounty program when asked about it in 2010. Hargrove since has signed a declaration admitting the bounty program existed and he took part in it. White was asked if Hargrove disclosed who initially told him to lie to investigators.

“He did, but I don’t think it is appropriate to reveal that,’’ White said.

White went on to repeatedly emphasize how strong the NFL's evidence was. You can read more of what she had to say here.

Is there any hope after the bounty scandal?

Going an entire season without coach Sean Payton is far from ideal. But, aside from that, the Saints -- by planning, luck or a combination of the two -- didn’t come out of this horrid offseason with nearly as many offseason problems as they could have.

Really, all they're losing as far as personnel is defensive end Will Smith for the first four games of the season. Yeah, I know linebacker Jonathan Vilma has been suspended for the entire season. With all due respect to Vilma, he was a great player a few years ago, but he’s on the downside of his career and the Saints upgraded when they signed free-agent Curtis Lofton. Just for insurance, they also signed linebackers David Hawthorne and Chris Chamberlain. Throw the new guys in with Scott Shanle, Martez Wilson, Jonathan Casillas and Will Herring, and the Saints are stronger at linebacker than they were last season.

If new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can figure out a way to generate a pass rush without Smith (and improve it when he returns), the Saints will be just fine on defense. We already know they’re just fine on offense, assuming quarterback Drew Brees’ contract situation gets worked out. There might be a few more weeks or months of drama on that end, but I don’t see any way the Saints go into the season without Brees' having a long-term deal.

Get Brees back in there, and the Saints could combine marketing campaigns with the NBA’s Hornets, who were just purchased by Saints owner Tom Benson. The Saints truly are a hornet’s nest right now. They (and their fans) are steaming mad at the NFL, the media and pretty much everyone outside of their world. You can see an “us-against-the-world mentality’’ building. As motivational ploys go, that’s not a bad one. Oh, here's a little more motivation. The Super Bowl is in New Orleans. The Saints and their fans could show up the NFL if they make it to the Super Bowl.

There have been so many subplots to the New Orleans Saints’ bounty program that some significant ones have gotten lost in the shuffle.

Thanks to Jeff Schultz for bringing attention to one of them. In this column, Schultz writes about the role and stance the NFL Players Association has taken and suggests the union change its name to “the Union of People We Feel Like Representing."

He’s got an excellent point. In its statement after the suspensions of Jonathan Vilma, Will Smith, Scott Fujita and Anthony Hargrove were announced, the union said it had “not received any detailed or specific evidence from the league of these specific players’ involvement in an alleged pay-to-injure program."

That’s a pretty standard line from the NFLPA. Think back to last year’s lockout. How many times did we hear the union say that the NFL would not share information how much each team was making, even though the league repeatedly said the union had been supplied with as much information as possible.

It’s a similar story this time. Former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has admitted the bounty program took place and there is that damning audiotape of Williams talking to his players the night before last season’s playoff game at San Francisco. The NFL also has said that multiple sources said Vilma offered $10,000 of his own money for bounties on Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. The NFL said Smith assisted Williams in establishing and funding the bounty program. The league also said Hargrove submitted a “signed declaration to the league that established not only the existence of the program at the Saints, but also that he knew about and participated in it’’. The league also said Fujita pledged a significant amount of money to the bounty program.

What more evidence does the union want?

Obviously, the union is prepared to stand by Vilma, Smith, Hargrove and Fujita, who just happens to be a member of the NFLPA’s executive committee, as they make their expected appeals. Any union should stand by its members because they pay dues that should bring them support from their union.

But this is where things head to an area that looks to be painted in multiple shades of gray. The NFLPA will try to protect the four suspended members.

That screams out one huge question -- what about the union’s hundreds of other members? They pay dues too and, presumably, that buys them protection as well. Shouldn’t the union be standing by Favre and Warner, who paid dues for years? And shouldn’t the union be protecting Carolina quarterback Cam Newton and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who the league said were also targets of the bounty program?

By standing so firmly with the suspended players, the union seems to be giving the appearance it doesn’t care about its other members or their safety and welfare. I’m sure the union would dispute that and say it cares about all its members and there’s probably truth in that.

But perception is everything. And the way the union has handled this thing so far sure make it look like it has a serious conflict of interest on its hands.

Maybe the union should step aside on this one. I don't see how you fully can stand up for the rights of your players when one group is trying to hurt another group. The union can pick a side, if it wants. But maybe choosing to not pick a side and staying out of this one is the only way the union can avoid the perception of a conflict of interest.

The gap between the New Orleans Saints' savagely stated intentions and their on-field actions provides an opening to question the punishment handed down by commissioner Roger Goodell.

Jonathan Vilma's season-long suspension for helping to establish and fund the program carries particular interest in the NFC West.

"Multiple independent sources also confirmed that Vilma offered a specific bounty -- $10,000 in cash -- to any player who knocked Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner out of the 2009 divisional playoff game and later pledged the same amount to anyone who knocked Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre out of the 2009 NFC Championship Game the following week," the NFL announced in meting out the punishment.

Saints defensive end Bobby McCray did knock Warner from the game for a time with a crushing hit following an interception, but Warner himself feels as though the Saints did not cross a line with their actions that day.

Warner's comments to Burns & Gambo on Arizona Sports 620 made clear his feelings:

"I could have been seriously hurt every time I stepped on that football field. There is no question that players went out to hurt me and knock me out of games many times throughout my career, whether or not there was a $10,000 bounty on me. Again, I look at it and say, 'Did somebody hit me harder in that situation because the bounty was there?' I don't know. I don't believe so. I believe that was a situation [on the McCray hit] that was set up perfectly for any defensive player, and any defensive player would have taken it. And it was a clean hit and it was a bigger man hitting a smaller man who wasn't prepared for it. And i got crushed.

"I would be mad if someone took a shot at me that was outside the rules of engagement to try to hurt me. If i got hurt because of that, then I would be extremely angry and to me that would cross way over that line.

"I believe that there have been defensive linemen in the locker room many a times say, 'Hey, the first one to knock Kurt out of the game, I'm buying dinner or I'm doing this after the game or whatever. I believe that stuff has gone on for years and years and years. And it wasn't the intention of taking a cheap shot. It was the intention of giving their team a benefit from knocking out a good player on the other team. No doubt in my mind, that that has gone on for years.

"There have been games where I felt like, 'They're really just trying to take me out of this game. They're going a little above and beyond.' I didn't feel that in that playoff game against the Saints. I felt it was a good, hard, competitive football game where the hits on me were clean."

While Goodell is punishing the Saints specifically, he's attacking the bounty mind-set in general. Punishing Vilma and the Saints so harshly may or may not be fair to them. The NFL culture is the broader target.

Vilma and the Saints aren't being punished this week for the hits they put on Warner. League officials already reviewed those hits after the game as a matter of course. The punishment attacks the intentions and makes it easier for the NFL to counter in court allegations it hasn't taken player safety seriously enough.

Note: The video above features discussion on the punishment for Vilma and other players. Warner did not participate in that discussion.