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Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different than in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace long-time stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

When we last checked in with USC left tackle Matt Kalil, he had shown up at the NFL scouting combine at a svelte 306 pounds spread out over his 6-foot-7 frame. He discussed plans to "bulk up" to around 310 pounds but made clear he was never going to be one of the hulking 330-pound monsters many of us associate with elite left tackles.

I caught up with Kalil over the weekend as part of his work with the Gatorade Sports Science Institute, where he spent some time setting future conditioning goals and overhauling his nutrition plan. He said he weighed in at 310 or 311 pounds at all four pre-draft visits he made over the past few months, including one with the Minnesota Vikings, and said he might approach 315 pounds by the time the 2012 NFL regular season begins.

But to give you an idea of the type of metabolism Kalil has, nutritionists have designed a daily 6,500-calorie diet to maintain whatever weight he lands on throughout the season. For context, the United States Department of Agriculture recommends 2,000 calories per day for many age groups, but athletes typically need more and Olympic swimmer Michael Phelps has consumed 12,000 during some training activities.

"I probably don't look like I weigh 310 pounds because I'm so tall," Kalil said. "But how much you weigh is overrated sometimes. Obviously you can't be 268 pounds and block a 300-pound defensive end, but I don't think [the difference between 310 and 330] is going to mean as much in my situation. I believe it's more about how you work on your trade and improving as a player, which I'm trying to do every day.

"You look at Joe Thomas [of the Cleveland Browns] and he's 311, 312 pounds. Jordan Gross [of the Carolina Panthers] is 303 or 305 pounds. In this line of work, it's about how strong you are and how good your technique is as much as how much you weigh."

Indeed, at 306 pounds during the combine, Kalil put together arguably the most impressive workouts of any offensive lineman. As we noted in February, most of his speed work qualified as the second-best scores at the combine.

Why are we spending so much time discussing Kalil's seemingly thin frame? Because there really isn't much else to pick at him about, a reflection of how universally he's considered the best non-quarterback prospect in the draft. It's also why almost no one has bought assertions from Vikings general manager Rick Spielman that a left tackle might be a lower priority than offensive playmakers or even cornerbacks at the top of the draft.

Based on what I can tell, it would stun the NFL from top to bottom if the Vikings draft someone other than Kalil at No. 3, regardless of the skills of Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon and LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne.

A trade market could materialize for those who want assurance they can draft Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and Kalil could be off the board if they Vikings move down far enough. Otherwise, Kalil and the Vikings appear to be in the final stages of engagement before the big ceremony April 26. Kalil has visited the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills as well, and he is taking what amounts to a forced neutrality on his landing spot.

"Crazier things have happened I guess," he said. "You can never really expect where you're going to go, and it's probably the wrong mindset to be set on a certain team. So I'm open-minded and working on staying in my routine until the draft starts."

Kalil has one more week of routine before leaving for New York City and draft festivities. And that gives us 11 more days of noise before what sure seems inevitable finally happens.

On this Thursday morning, the punishment of the New Orleans Saints for the bounty program continues to dominate the news stories and opinion pieces around the NFC South. As a matter of fact, there are virtually no non-Saints headlines across the division. So let's take a run through what's being talked about.

This editorial in the New Orleans Times-Picayune says that Saints fans deserve more of an explanation of why the penalties against the Saints were so harsh. I think there was plenty of explanation in the report the NFL released to the media. It was, by far, the most detailed report I’ve seen on an NFL disciplinary matter. It named names and went into deep detail. If you really want more of an explanation than that, be careful what you wish for. There could be even more things that loyal fans don’t want to hear.

Here’s an unflattering portrayal of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, who is the target of wrath for many Saints fans. I understand that, but I think they’re way off target and blind in their loyalty. Goodell wasn’t the one who broke rules, lied and didn’t listen to his boss. Sean Payton, Gregg Williams, Mickey Loomis and Joe Vitt were the ones that did all that. Don’t shoot the messenger.

It’s kind of amazing how their can be such strongly different reactions to the same thing in different areas. Atlanta columnist Jeff Schultz thoroughly agrees with Goodell’s decision.

Same thing in Charlotte, where columnist Tom Sorensen wrote that Goodell didn’t undermine football, “he preserved it’’.

In Tampa, columnist Marty Fennelly writes that there’s blood in the NFC South water and it’s time for the Buccaneers to strike. The Bucs have some major building to do, and as long as they have Drew Brees, the Saints aren’t going to simply fall apart. But it’s a valid point. There have been plenty of instances of teams going from worst to first in the NFC South, and there’s little doubt the Bucs have improved their roster with what they’ve done so far this offseason.

Carolina general manager Marty Hurney said it was very disappointing to see franchise quarterback Cam Newton named as one of the players the Saints targeted with their bounty program. Carolina veteran offensive tackle Jordan Gross said the bounty program was “appalling,” but added he wasn’t surprised to hear about it.

Goodell said he expects to meet with NFL Players Association leader DeMaurice Smith and union leaders soon. He said he’ll listen to their recommendations for penalties against players involved in the bounty system. But the ultimate decision rests with Goodell. Given the severity of Wednesday’s penalties against coaches and the front office, I’d expect the punishment for players will involve suspensions and heavy fines.

The Carolina Panthers are keeping guard Geoff Hangartner, according to ESPN’s John Clayton.

Hangartner has agreed to a three-year deal. The terms weren’t immediately available.

But the re-signing of Hangartner solidifies one guard position while leaving a bit of a question at the other. Veteran Travelle Wharton was carrying a cap figure in excess of $7 million as the Panthers worked to get under the cap for the start of free agency. It’s unclear if the Panthers have restructured Wharton’s contract or made any roster moves involving him yet.

Hangartner originally was drafted by the Panthers in 2005. He left as a free agent for two seasons in Buffalo but was re-signed last preseason as the Panthers had several injuries at guard. Hangartner wound up starting all 16 games. He also gives the Panthers a bit of flexibility because he has the ability to play center if needed.

If Wharton is staying with the Panthers, the team has what looks like a strong offensive line on paper. Center Ryan Kalil and left tackle Jordan Gross each have been to the Pro Bowl. Right tackle is a bit of a question mark with Jeff Otah missing most of the last two seasons with injuries.

With the NFL combine kicking off, let’s take a look at several of the potential story lines involving the NFC South during the draft-preparation event:

Double dipping again? Last year, Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik used his first two picks on defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. The year before that he used his first two picks on defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. In that same draft, Dominik also took two receivers almost in succession, with Arrelious Benn coming in the second round and Mike Williams in the fourth. If there’s a position where I can see Dominik doubling up this year, it’s cornerback. It’s unclear what the future holds for Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib.

Sitting it out: The Saints and Falcons don’t have first-round picks. But their scouts and coaches should be paying close attention to all the top prospects. You never know who might fall out of the first round, like Bowers did last year. More importantly, there’s no guarantee the Saints or Falcons stay out of the first round. They both have aggressive front offices and both are in a win-now mode. I can see either one trading back up into the first round.

Flip a coin: That literally is what it will come down to in deciding who gets the No. 8 pick and who gets the No. 9 pick between Carolina and Miami. The coin flip will be held Friday in Indianapolis. Carolina general manager Marty Hurney is an extremely superstitious guy and I’m guessing he’s carrying some sort of coin that he thinks is lucky. By the way, Hurney is so superstitious that he’s hoping for the No. 8 pick for another reason besides the fact it’s one spot higher than No. 9. In the 2003 draft, the Vikings failed to turn in their pick on time. The Panthers wound up jumping ahead of them and taking offensive tackle Jordan Gross. He’s had a pretty nice career, so Hurney probably is hoping for a repeat.

In need of a hit: Like coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan, Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff is under a bit of pressure if the Falcons don’t advance deep into the playoffs next season. Owner Arthur Blank has said simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough. He wants to contend for the Super Bowl. Dimitroff has had mixed success with his first-round picks. Ryan and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon have worked out pretty well and Julio Jones looks like he can be an elite player. But defensive tackle Peria Jerry and offensive tackle Sam Baker have had their careers stall. Dimitroff is going to be busy in free agency, but he needs to pull a starter somewhere out of this draft and it would be especially nice if that guy was a defensive end or a left offensive tackle.

In need of a pass rush: The problem with new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo’s scheme is that the Saints don’t have the personnel to run it effectively yet. Spagnuolo likes to generate almost all his pressure from the front four. Outside of veteran defensive end Will Smith, the Saints don’t have any real pass-rush threats on the line. The Saints almost certainly will address that in the draft.

It was a big year for offense in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints set all sorts of records. The Carolina Panthers lit up scoreboards and, when the Atlanta Falcons were on, they sometimes were spectacular.

That made for some difficult choices, but here’s my All-NFC South offense.

Tackle: Jordan Gross, Panthers. He’s getting along in years, but Gross is still the best tackle in the division.

Tackle: Jermon Bushrod, Saints. This was a really tough call because Tampa Bay’s Donald Penn seemed destined for this spot, but his play slipped as the Bucs collapsed and lost their last 10 games. I refuse to put any offensive lineman from Atlanta on this team, so I’m going with Bushrod almost by default. I know he made the Pro Bowl, but I’m not convinced Bushrod is anything more than an ordinary left tackle. But he’s better than any other tackle the NFC South had to offer.

Guard: Carl Nicks, Saints. He might be the best guard in the NFL.

Guard: Jahri Evans, Saints. If Nicks isn’t the best guard in the NFL, then Evans is.

Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers. He’s becoming a Pro Bowl regular and might be the best center in the league.

Wide receiver: Steve Smith, Panthers. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton came along and revitalized Smith’s career. But I also think Smith deserves a lot of the credit for Newton’s success.

Wide receiver: Marques Colston, Saints. I went back and forth on this one between Colston and Atlanta’s Roddy White and Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams also got some consideration. I’m joking. Williams didn’t get one bit of consideration. White’s numbers were slightly better than Colston’s in terms of catches and receiving yards. But Colston missed a couple games with a broken collarbone and still had very nice numbers in an offense where there are a ton of other options. White had nice numbers, but he didn’t look like the dominant receiver he was a year ago. White led the league in drops.

Tight end: Jimmy Graham, Saints. This one was easy. Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez had a very nice season and is the best tight end in history. But Graham had one of the most prolific seasons ever by a tight end in only his second season. Graham should only continue to get better and, if he stays healthy, he could eventually pass Gonzalez as the best tight end ever.

Fullback: Jed Collins, Saints. In his first real NFL season (Collins was with Cleveland in 2008), he emerged as a steady role player in the league’s best offense. Collins didn’t have much in the way of numbers, but his blocking was a key factor in the offenses’ success. If Atlanta’s Ovie Mughelli hadn’t gotten injured, he’d be in this spot. But Collins is a worthy replacement.

Running back: Darren Sproles, Saints. Sproles ended up with an NFL record for all-purpose yards. Out of the backfield, he contributed as a runner and receiver and created enormous matchup problems for opposing defenses.

Running back: Michael Turner. Yeah, I'm going with two running backs because it's my team, I can want and there are two guys that deserve to be on here. Turner looked slow for most of the second half of the season. But he still rushed for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's not a bad season by any measure.

Quarterback: Drew Brees, Saints. He threw for a league-record 5,476 yards and also passed for 46 touchdowns. Brees has been great for a long time, but he took his game to another level. He’s the reason the Saints won 13 games without a defense.

» NFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South » AFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South

Perfect sense: Drew Brees’ sixth Pro Bowl selection is no surprise. He’s already thrown for more yards in a season than any player in history and has led the Saints to a 12-3 record. The only downer here is that Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers was selected as the starter ahead of Brees. Consider that a likely precursor to what will happen with the Most Valuable Player award. But, hey, I’m sure Brees would rather start the Super Bowl than the Pro Bowl. The other slam-dunk choice in the NFC South was New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham. He’s only a second-year, pro, but this former college basketball player is on his way to one of the best statistical seasons ever for a tight end. This is Graham’s first Pro Bowl selection. There probably will be a lot more in the future.

Made it on rep: When you’re playing on a great team, you sometimes can ride the coattails of your teammates. I have to think that’s what happened in the case of New Orleans left tackle Jermon Bushrod. Brees’ numbers certainly show the Saints are doing some good things on the offensive line. But those are coming mostly from guards Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans, who just happen to be the starters for the NFC. Bushrod has turned into a solid left tackle, but he’s far from elite. In fact, Carolina’s Jordan Gross, even though he missed some time with injury, would have been a much better choice. Some scouts also will tell you Tampa Bay’s Donald Penn, at least at times, is better than Bushrod.

Got robbed: Rodgers and Brees were the obvious choices as the first two quarterbacks. But I seriously thought Carolina rookie Cam Newton had a very real chance to be the third quarterback. He’s not. Eli Manning ended up on the roster. Manning’s decent, but he’s not a special player. Newton is a special player. He’s already thrown for more yards than any rookie quarterback in history and has run for more touchdowns than any quarterback in history. You can also make the case that New Orleans’ running back/return man Darren Sproles should be on the roster. Sproles was only on the ballot as a return man and Arizona’s Patrick Peterson got the nod there. But I think there’s a good chance Sproles will be added at some point as a “need’’ player because any team could use a guy like Sproles.

Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.

A quick reminder that the fan portion of voting for the Pro Bowl ends Monday.

Here’s the link to the ballot if you want to hit the polls at the last minute.

I won’t tell you who to vote for, but I’ll throw out some names I think are worthy of consideration. On offense, I’d think about New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan, Atlanta running back Michael Turner, Carolina receiver Steve Smith, Atlanta receiver Roddy White, New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham, Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez, Carolina tackle Jordan Gross, New Orleans guards Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans and Carolina center Ryan Kalil.

On defense, I’d consider Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson, Atlanta defensive end John Abraham, Atlanta defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux, Atlanta linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Curtis Lofton, New Orleans cornerback Jabari Greer and New Orleans safety Malcolm Jenkins.

On special teams, I think New Orleans punter Thomas Morstead, Tampa Bay punter Michael Koenen, Atlanta kicker Matt Bryant and New Orleans return man Darren Sproles are worth considering.

We’ve already unveiled our midseason All-NFC South defense. Now, it’s time for the offense.

As I said in the post on the defense, that’s not exactly the strong side of the ball in this division. The offense is the strong side and there were lots of tough choices. I felt I had to reach in a few cases on the defense. On the offense, I felt like I was forced to leave off some very good players.

Here’s the offense:

Tackle: Jordan Gross, Panthers. He’s been one of the best in the business for a long time. Gross has weathered some tough times, but, like a lot of other Carolina veterans, he’s been energized by the arrival of rookie quarterback Cam Newton.

Tackle: Donald Penn, Buccaneers. He’s gone from an undrafted free agent in 2006 to the Pro Bowl last season. Penn’s play has continued to improve this season and he’s one of the few Tampa Bay players who has performed consistently well this season.

Guard: Carl Nicks, Saints. Lots of people say Nicks and teammate Jahri Evans form the best guard tandem in the business. I think their play has fallen off a bit this year, but that might be because there’s been a lot of shuffling on the rest of the offensive line. But, on pure talent, Nicks remains an elite guard.

Guard: Davin Joseph, Buccaneers. I’m taking him over Evans (and Carolina’s Travelle Wharton, who got some consideration) because Joseph has been consistent.

Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers. Carolina had the franchise tag on Kalil before signing him to a big contract in the preseason. Kalil hasn’t disappointed. He’s one of the league’s top centers and still has more upside.

Tight end: Jimmy Graham, Saints. In a division that’s loaded with talented tight ends, Graham stands above the rest, even though he’s only in his second season. He’s become a huge part of the offense and is on pace for somewhere around 100 catches. He presents all sorts of matchup problems for defenses and makes the Cover Two almost useless against the Saints.

Wide receiver: Steve Smith, Panthers. He’s having one of the best years of his career and no one has been more energized by Newton’s arrival than Smith.

Wide receiver: Marques Colston, Saints. Although Colston missed some time with a broken collarbone, he’s putting up nice stats. I picked him over Atlanta’s Roddy White, who slipped a bit in the first half of the season, but could explode at any time.

Running back: Michael Turner, Falcons. He’s on pace for almost 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Perhaps the best news of all is Turner has his yards per carry average back up to 4.4, after it dipped to 4.1 last season.

Running back: Darren Sproles, Saints. I’m going with two running backs because it’s my team and I can make the rules. I’m also going with two running backs because Sproles deserves to be on this team. We knew this guy was a decent player in his San Diego days. But the Saints have put him in positions where he’s been great.

Fullback: Ovie Mughelli, Falcons. Yes, Mughelli’s done for the season with an injury. But, before that happened, he was clearly the best fullback in the NFC South. He provided excellent blocking for Turner and also was a bit of a threat as a receiver.

Quarterback: Drew Brees, Saints. He’s on pace for more than 5,000 passing yards and he clearly has been helped by the arrival of Sproles, a player Brees helped recruit. His 11 interceptions are a bit troubling, but you’re going to have some turnovers when you throw as often as the Saints.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Ron Rivera was talking specifically about his defense, but he might as well have been summing up the state of the entire Carolina Panthers team.

“Our guys are going to learn and they’re going to understand those things and get better,’’ the first-year head coach said. “When they get better, people need to watch out.’’

Maybe people should start watching out for the Panthers now. They defeated the Washington Redskins 33-20 on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium.

That alone isn’t going to make Carolina’s season. The Panthers are 2-5, and I’ll go way out on a limb and say they’re not going to make the playoffs this season. That will come in the future. But they will have an impact on the NFC South race the rest of this season.

They have two games with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and one each with the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. They’ve already played the Saints and Falcons pretty closely, but ended up doing the same thing they did in their other three losses. They squandered chances to win.

That’s why beating the Redskins, who came in with a winning record, marked a big step for the Panthers. They never trailed in this game, and their defense, a problem spot all season, came up with three sacks, an interception and two fumble recoveries.

That’s huge progress, because this is a defense that’s playing even more young guys than planned because of season-ending injuries to linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis, and defensive tackle Ron Edwards.

“I take my hat off to the defense,’’ left tackle Jordan Gross said. “It was our best performance by far. They gave us the ball in good field position a lot and they made some big stops. I think they’ve only got room to go up from here and I’m excited about that.

Gross is one of just a handful of Panthers who were with the team in 2008 -- the last winning season. He’s been to Pro Bowls and so has wide receiver Steve Smith. They’re also the players remaining from the team that went to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2003 season.

Gross and Smith know how to win on the NFL level. But most of the Panthers haven’t experienced that on a consistent basis.

In the first six games, which included a win against Jacksonville, the Panthers have shown plenty of positive signs. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton started faster than anyone expected and energized Smith, who looks like he did in the middle of the last decade. Tight ends Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey have brought a dimension the offense hasn’t had since Wesley Walls left, and the running game (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart) has shown some flashes.

But the Panthers played porous defense, and even Newton and the offense were responsible for some crucial late-game mistakes that had kept the Panthers from winning.

“The fans have been so great,’’ Rivera said. “Wherever I’ve been, they’ve thanked me for us being close. It’s kind of frustrating, but, at the same time, I really appreciate that. But we want to give them victories. It’ll be great to say, 'Hey, we got one.'’’

But the moral victories were beginning to wear thin on some fans. Having a quarterback who can go out and throw for 400 yards in a game can only bring so much excitement when you’re piling up losses.

“I said to our team before the game, 'It’s our time. We deserve this,'’’ Gross said.

Coming close wasn’t good enough for Gross, Rivera, the front office, ownership and a growing number of fans.

“You don’t want to make too much out of one win or get too excited, but this team needs to win,’’ Gross said. “We can feel what it’s like to win and be excited, and hopefully everybody can remember this formula.’’

The formula actually is pretty simple in theory, and the Panthers were able to follow it throughout the entire game against Washington.

“Get the lead, keep it, and it’s a whole different ballgame,’’ Gross said.

It was a different ballgame as Newton had a very efficient day, completing 18 of 23 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown, and also running for 59 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers combined for 175 rushing yards, and the defense limited the Redskins to two field goals in the second half.

“When I walked out (of the locker room), I know the guys started talking about, 'Hey, we’ve got another opportunity to keep it going,'’’ Rivera said.

The Panthers do have an opportunity to build the first winning streak of Rivera’s tenure. The Minnesota Vikings (1-6) come to town in Week 8. After that, Carolina has a bye week. After that, the Panthers could start playing the role of spoiler for the rest of the NFC South in the second half of the season.

“We feel good about ourselves,’’ middle linebacker Dan Connor said. "That’s how you can start to build some momentum.''

You can see Rivera’s building something very promising in Carolina, and this victory might have been a nice step in that process.

“Sometimes you open up a restaurant and it’s under new management,’’ said Smith, who had seven catches for 143 yards. “Sometimes you just have to blow up the restaurant and start all over. That’s what Coach Rivera has done. He just didn’t slap a new menu on there. He did it all over -- new paint, new walls, new furniture and everything.’’

The paint is starting to dry and the furniture is starting to get comfortable. At some point down the road -- and it might not be that far off -- the rest of the NFC South is going to have to watch out for the Panthers.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 4:

Remember the Saints: On paper, Atlanta’s trip to Seattle looks like the perfect get-well game for a team that’s been struggling. Logic says this should be an easy win for the Falcons. But logic said the same thing the last time an NFC South team went into Seattle. That was in January, when the Saints came for a playoff game and wound up getting beat by the Seahawks. Seattle may not have a great team, but it’s a very tough place for a team to come into. Crowd noise, the long trip and the time change can all be factors. Just ask the Saints.

Matchup of the week: That would be Carolina left tackle Jordan Gross against Chicago defensive end Julius Peppers. Gross has more experience than any player in the league at blocking Peppers. Before joining the Bears last season, Peppers spent eight seasons in Carolina. Gross was drafted in 2003, the year after Peppers, and the two squared off in practice on a daily basis for most of their seven seasons together. Peppers probably won’t be able to fool Gross, so he’ll have to rely mostly on his pure athletic ability.

Carrying the banner: When the Saints play at Jacksonville on Sunday, they’ll be representing more than themselves. They’ll be representing the NFC South, and they have a chance to end an embarrassing streak. No NFC South team ever has won a regular-season game in Jacksonville. The Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons and Panthers each are 0-2 in trips to Jacksonville.

Watch out for Roman Harper: The New Orleans safety is a little bit like Tampa Bay cornerback Ronde Barber in that he’s one of the best pass-rushing defensive backs in the NFL. That may be a little like saying someone has the strongest throwing arm of any first baseman in baseball, but it could be a big factor Sunday when the Saints face Jacksonville rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Since 2006, Harper has 12 sacks, the most by any safety in that span. Harper already has 2.5 sacks this year. You can bet defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will be blitzing Harper -- and some other defenders -- frequently against Gabbert.

History doesn’t matter in this one: The Colts and Buccaneers are playing on Monday night, which automatically brings back memories of the last time the two teams played a Monday night game. That was 2003, and the game was the official mark of Tampa Bay’s stumble after winning a Super Bowl championship. The Bucs led that game 35-14 with four minutes left in regulation. Peyton Manning engineered a dramatic comeback to force overtime, and the Colts kicked a field goal to win it. But Manning’s hurt and won’t play. Aside from Barber, no other Tampa Bay player was involved in that game. In fact, most of the young Buccaneers were in high school or junior high at the time.

Now that the Carolina Panthers have stepped into this century, the NFC South has a new look from top to bottom.

Cam Newton is flinging footballs, the Panthers are scoring points, and the days of John Fox signing off on a third-and-long draw play to Nick Goings are history. The Panthers have their franchise quarterback in Newton, which gives them something in common with the Saints, Falcons and Buccaneers.

Newton joining New Orleans’ Drew Brees, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman just might make the NFC South the league’s only division with four franchise quarterbacks. That’s great.

But, now that everybody has a franchise quarterback, this division isn’t going to be settled by a quarterback. All four teams now are capable of scoring points in bunches.

The team that wins the NFC South this year will be the team with the best defense. Think about that for a second. Suddenly there is no clear-cut favorite. The division filled with elite quarterbacks doesn’t have a blue-chip defense or anything close to it.

The days of Fox taking the Panthers to the Super Bowl purely with defense and Monte Kiffin doing the same with Tampa Bay were almost a decade ago. While the NFC South was becoming a quarterback-driven division in a quarterback-driven league, everybody sort of forgot about defense.

It’s time to remember the old adage that “defense wins championships,’’ because that’s what it’s going to come down to in the NFC South. That’s a scary prospect no matter which of the four teams you root for.

None of them are loaded with defensive talent, and none of them are off to great defensive starts. Based on yardage allowed through two games, the NFC South has three bottom feeders.

Carolina is No. 26 at 406.5 yards a game. Atlanta is No. 27 at 412 and Tampa Bay is No. 28 at 414.5. The Saints are No. 12 at 322.5, but before Who Dat Nation gets too carried away, let’s remember the Packers hung 42 points on New Orleans in the opener.

There’s not even a truly dominant defensive player in the NFC South. On offense, you can go beyond the quarterbacks and point to guys like Atlanta receiver Roddy White, Carolina left tackle Jordan Gross, Tampa Bay tight end Kellen Winslow and Atlanta running back Michael Turner. You can say they’re in the top five in the league at their position and nobody’s going to give you much of an argument.

Try that on defense? Tampa Bay cornerback Ronde Barber and Atlanta defensive end John Abraham are the biggest names, but they’re at the end of their careers. New Orleans safety Malcolm Jenkins and Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson are budding stars, but they haven’t done it long enough.

The best overall defensive player in the division might be Carolina linebacker Jon Beason, and he’s out for the season with an injury. So who’s going to step up and play enough defense to win the NFC South?

Let’s take a look at the candidates.

New Orleans. This is a defense that can go two ways, as evidenced by the Super Bowl championship in the 2009 season and the playoff collapse at Seattle last season. The Saints are never going to be one of those defenses that shuts you down for an entire game.

With Brees, they don’t have to be that type of defense. They just have to be opportunistic like they were in 2009. Coordinator Gregg Williams is an aggressive guy, and he’s going to take chances and call blitzes all season long.

If this defense can just come up with some turnovers at key times and stop a few drives, the Saints could go a long way. But they’ll need the pass rush to force some mistakes so players like Jenkins, linebacker Jonathan Vilma and cornerback Jabari Greer can come up with the big plays.

Atlanta. This is the one defense that I think has the potential to be good all the way around, but it’s not there yet. It’s kind of ironic that coach Mike Smith comes from a defensive background, but hasn’t been able to totally play his kind of defense in his first three seasons.

That could change this year. Abraham still has a little left and he’s starting to get some help from defensive end Ray Edwards, the Falcons’ big acquisition in free agency, and defensive tackle Peria Jerry, who is starting to remind people why he was a first-round pick in 2009.

If defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux can get healthy, the Falcons could have the type of defensive line that allows linebackers Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon, cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson, and safety William Moore to become playmakers.

Tampa Bay. Like Smith, Raheem Morris comes from a defensive background. Like Smith, his defense is a work in progress. But Tampa Bay’s defense might not be as close to breaking through as Atlanta’s.

The Bucs are incredibly young in the front seven. But there is plenty of potential. Defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers were the team’s first two draft picks this year, and defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Brian Price were the top two draft picks last year. The Bucs are starting rookie Mason Foster at middle linebacker and he’s already flashing potential.

It might take the Bucs some time to get this defense going. Then again, Morris and his staff have been known to get quick results from young players. They won 10 games last season when Freeman was in his first full season as a starter.

Carolina. Ron Rivera also has a defensive pedigree, but he’s been dealt a tough hand. Beason and fellow linebacker Thomas Davis are out for the season, and the Panthers started losing defensive tackles in training camp.

But there’s hope because Carolina potentially could have the division’s best pass rush with defensive ends Johnson and Greg Hardy. They could force some turnovers and give Newton some help. A little defensive help is really all that’s needed in the NFC South.

The offenses are going to dominate this division. But one defense is going to decide it. Which one? It’s too early to say.

They all have potential, but the one that maximizes it at the right time and makes itself a little bit different from the rest is going to be the NFC South champion.

SPARTANBURG, S.C. -- You’ve heard plenty about the lockout over the past few months, but it actually was in effect in Charlotte since 2008.

The moment owners opted out of the previous labor agreement, Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson realized there were tough financial times ahead. He immediately decided he wasn’t going to spend big money on long-term deals for players or coaches (the Panthers didn’t add a single unrestricted free agent in 2009 or 2010) because Richardson wanted to protect everyone else who worked for his franchise during the tough times.

That’s why defensive end Julius Peppers was allowed to walk in free agency last year. That’s why John Fox was allowed to be a lame-duck coach entering a 2010 season that turned into a nightmare. Despite having a roster filled with a reasonable amount of individual talent, the Panthers went 2-14 and fan apathy reached an all-time high.

But Richardson’s entire philosophy changed the moment the labor situation was resolved. He took the lock off his checkbook and began paying huge money to keep players such as defensive end Charles Johnson, running back DeAngelo Williams, linebackers Jon Beason, James Anderson and Thomas Davis, add free agents such as kicker Olindo Mare and trade for tight end Greg Olsen. Including rookies, Richardson already has written checks for more than $100 million in signing bonuses.

Throw in the fact that Ron Rivera has replaced Fox and the Panthers chose quarterback Cam Newton with the first pick of the draft and there suddenly is optimism the Panthers can quickly escape the label of being one of the league’s worst teams.

“That’s the one thing I’ve learned from being a Carolina Panther for going on nine years is that you never know what kind of a team we’re going to field from year to year,’’ veteran left tackle Jordan Gross said. “Things can change dramatically, and I think they are going to here. I love Coach Rivera’s philosophy and the staff he’s put together. They’re committed to winning, and the organization has shown that as well with what it has done with getting new guys and re-signing our own guys. I think we can be as good as we want to be.’’

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. Will Newton be savior of this franchise? It’s way too early to even have a clue if the guy who only played one full season at Auburn will succeed in the NFL. But the most important thing to keep in mind is that the Panthers aren’t asking Newton to be their savior -- at least not right away.

The hope in Carolina is that Newton will get a reasonable grasp of the offense in training camp and show it in the preseason games. If he does, he’ll be the opening-day starter. The Panthers don’t want to prolong the inevitable and start the season with Jimmy Clausen because Newton clearly is their future.

The playbook can expand as time goes on, but the organization believes that Newton can step right in behind an offensive line that should be good and can take advantage of a strong running game, very good tight ends and wide receiver Steve Smith.

2. What will the new offense look like? The popular thing to do in Carolina is assume that the departure of Fox and offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson means the Panthers are suddenly going to start throwing the ball all over the field.

They will throw more, but the Panthers won't pass as often as people think. That would be foolish with a rookie quarterback and it would border on insanity to keep the ball out of the hands of running backs Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Under new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, there will be significant differences from the Fox/Davidson era.

Chudzinski came from San Diego and plans to use an offensive scheme that’s based on what the Chargers do. You’ll see more passes to the tight ends, a big reason the Panthers brought in Olsen and Jeremy Shockey. You’ll see plays designed to get Smith away from double coverage. But don’t expect Newton to step right in and immediately be Philip Rivers.

3. What will the defense look like? Rivera has a defensive background. His coordinator is Sean McDermott, who spent time in Philadelphia. Some personnel changes in the middle of the defensive line will allow Beason, Anderson and Davis to again become play-making linebackers. That’s going to make this defense look a little like Fox’s defense of a few years back. But the real change will be a new philosophy that involves taking risks and being aggressive. The Panthers didn’t blitz much last year and didn’t have much success when they did. That’s going to change. McDermott’s going to use those athletic linebackers as blitzers and, with Johnson and Greg Hardy already up front, Carolina suddenly could have a dynamic and disruptive pass rush. The secondary is not loaded with big-time talent, but it could look a lot better if quarterbacks are forced into mistakes.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Granted, it’s early, but the Panthers are hopeful receiver/return man Armanti Edwards will make an impact. A second-round pick last year, Edwards was a non-factor as a rookie. That was largely because Fox believed the former college quarterback did not belong in the NFL. He barely let Edwards on the field as he made a statement to an owner and front office that wanted the lame-duck coach to embrace a youth movement. But Fox is gone and there’s sudden optimism about Edwards. The team didn’t know it until after the lockout ended, but it was delighted to find out that Edwards reached out to veteran punter Jason Baker during the offseason. The two worked out together frequently and Edwards made dramatic improvement in his ability to catch punts. There’s a good chance he could be the main punt and kickoff returner this season. He also could be involved in certain packages as a wide receiver.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

The perception is the Panthers have done just about everything they’ve wanted to in free agency. But that’s not quite reality. According to a league source, the team made a strong play for free-agent receiver Santana Moss, offering him a three-year deal worth $15 million. Moss took the deal back to the Redskins, who matched it, so he elected to stay in Washington. That one shook the Panthers a bit. Although they have high hopes for young receivers Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, they want to pair a proven veteran with Smith to start the season. Look for them to bring in another veteran at some point before the start of the regular season.

OBSERVATION DECK

• Keep your eye on the cornerbacks who remain on the market or come available over the next few weeks. The Panthers let Richard Marshall leave via free agency. They still have Chris Gamble and Captain Munnerlyn, but a team that has been so aggressive this offseason isn’t going to sit still at this position. The Panthers will sign a cornerback with starting experience at some point. They’re just waiting for the right guy at the right price.
• The Panthers pushed veteran kicker John Kasay out the door and handed Mare a $4 million signing bonus. Kasay, 41, remained accurate on field goals, but the feeling was that he no longer had the leg strength to make long kicks. Mare’s 38 and still can make long field goals. But the biggest reason the change was made wasn’t about field goals. It was about kickoffs. The Panthers carried a kickoff specialist the past few years and didn’t want to waste a roster spot by doing that again. With the league moving kickoffs up 5 yards this year, the team believes Mare can produce a lot of touchbacks.
• Don’t overlook running back Mike Goodson. As long as Williams and Stewart are healthy, he’s not going to get a bunch of carries. But Goodson was one of the few bright spots from last season and the new coaching staff noticed him on film. He can do a lot out of different things out of the backfield, and the coaching staff believes there's a role for Goodson. Think of a scaled-down version of what New Orleans did with Reggie Bush and plans to do with Darren Sproles.
• Perhaps the most unsung move the Panthers made all offseason was hiring Mike Shula, the son of legendary coach Don Shula, as quarterbacks coach. He's had ups and downs as an NFL coordinator and college head coach at Alabama. But Shula has grown from it all and is a very good quarterbacks coach and teacher. If Shula can develop Newton or Clausen into a big-time quarterback, the world finally might give this guy his due.
• The return of right tackle Jeff Otah is more significant than many realize. Otah missed all last season with a knee injury but is fully healthy now. That’s going to have a huge impact on the running game.
• Ryan Kalil signed his $10 million franchise tender and the team hasn’t talked to him about a long-term deal. But that’s simply because the front office has been so tied up making other moves. This team realizes Kalil is still young and already considered one of the best centers in the game. As soon as things settle down a bit, expect Kalil to be offered a big long-term deal.

They were 2-14 last season, so the Carolina Panthers can’t have much talent, right?

Actually, that’s quite wrong. Last year’s debacle had a lot more to do with John Fox’s status as a lame-duck coach and failure to embrace a youth movement than the talent level. The Panthers had guys like Jon Beason, Jordan Gross and Steve Smith on their roster.

They also had guys like Charles Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, James Anderson and Richard Marshall. Those last four guys are potential unrestricted free agents and they’re a big part of the reason why this Insider post ranks the Panthers as one of five teams with the most to lose in free agency. All four of those guys could get significant interest from other teams because they all have talent.

Carolina fans shouldn’t get too frantic about that. The Panthers should have more than $40 million in salary-cap space and they’re going to make a hard push to keep their own players. They could let Marshall walk.

But they’re going to do everything in their power to try to keep Johnson, Williams and Anderson. Talks were held with all of their agents before the lockout and they know the Panthers want to keep them.

» AFC Future Stars: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

A team-by-team look at the players I expect to be the most dominant in the NFC South from 2014 to 2016.

The rules on our Dream Team of Tomorrow are simple. We’re not looking at the best players of today.

We’re looking down the road. Yes, Drew Brees still might be going strong in 2014. John Abraham might even be adding sacks at that time. But they’ll be on the downside of their careers.

We’re looking for the rising stars -- the guys who will be dominant from 2014 through 2016 and maybe beyond that. We’re looking for the next generation.

Matt Ryan, Falcons quarterback: You can make a case that Ryan already is considered a star. He came into the league in 2008 and has led the Falcons to a winning record in each of his three seasons and two playoff berths.

But Ryan’s not a superstar just yet. He’s right on the cusp and I’m willing to predict he’ll be fully in his prime by 2014. For Ryan truly to be considered an “elite’’ quarterback, he’s got to win a playoff game. He’ll be winning playoff games soon enough because the Falcons continue to do what they have since Ryan joined them.

They continue to look at every possible way to make him great and that process is nearing completion. They surrounded Ryan with a running game (Michael Turner) as a rookie and Roddy White blossomed as a receiver. The Falcons threw Tony Gonzalez into the mix as a safety valve at tight end.

But they took their biggest step yet this year when they made a daring move up in the draft to get Julio Jones. Line him up at wide receiver across from White and the Falcons should have two guys who can stretch the field.

White’s made some noise this offseason about how Atlanta’s offense can be somewhat like the St. Louis Rams when they were “The Greatest Show on Turf.’’ He just might be right. If he is, Ryan will be one of the greatest quarterbacks on earth.

Josh Freeman, Buccaneers quarterback: The ceiling is unlimited on this kid. Last year was his first full season as a starter and he almost single-handedly carried the Bucs to a 10-6 record, a season after they went 3-13.

Freeman threw 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions while surrounded with a cast of offensive players that was very young in some areas and not all that talented in some others. A lot of people say the Bucs had an easy schedule last season and that they overachieved.

That might be true, but I’m not buying into the theory that the Bucs are going to take a step back. They found the first true franchise quarterback they’ve ever had. As long as he’s around, the Bucs are going to be competitive.

Freeman’s much more than just a physical specimen. He’s grown into the role of the leader of this franchise faster than anyone ever expected.

Malcolm Jenkins, Saints free safety. With Brees and Jonathan Vilma, the Saints have the best natural leadership in the NFC South at the moment. Wherever Brees and Vilma are in 2014 through 2016, the Saints will be near the top of the heap.

That’s because they have a superstar in the making in Jenkins, who comes with the same kind of intangibles as Brees and Vilma. At its core, football comes down to making big plays and winning games. As a first-year starter last season, Jenkins showed he can do that.

Remember the Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas? The Saints were on the verge of losing when Jenkins came from behind and stripped the ball from receiver Roy Williams. The Saints ended up winning and coach Sean Payton said Jenkins made “one of those plays that inspires everybody on the team.’’ Two weeks later, he did it again, intercepting St. Louis’ Sam Bradford twice and returning one of them for a touchdown.

Jenkins came out of college with all the physical tools, but people around the Saints will tell you they’re even more impressed with his work on the practice field and in the film room. There should be a lot more inspiring plays from Jenkins in the future.

Ryan Kalil, Panthers center. He’s only 26 and he’s been to the Pro Bowl the past two seasons, despite playing on bad teams. Scouts, coaches and players around the league will tell you he’s one of the two or three best centers in the league and his reputation will grow rapidly if Carolina can make some improvements after last year’s 2-14 season.

The Panthers already placed the franchise tag on Kalil for this year in an effort to make sure he doesn’t get away. They view him as the emerging anchor of their offensive line as Jordan Gross gets older.

At some point, the Panthers will lock Kalil up to a big long-term deal. There’s a reason for that. They just drafted Cam Newton, whom they view as their franchise quarterback. They want to make sure he’s receiving snaps from and being protected by a franchise center.