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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady spent time with teammate Wes Welker last weekend at the Kentucky Derby. Between the schmoozing and excitement of horse racing, Brady should have given his top receiver a subtle message and said, "Buddy, it's time to get back to work."

There is one thing for certain about the Patriots: You do not fight the machine. Welker is facing an uphill battle he cannot win. Many have tried before him and failed. Welker is not the exception.

Welker has yet to sign his franchise tender and hasn't decided how long he's going to protest New England's one-year, $9.5 million offer. The potential distraction has been held to a minimum thus far. But it would only grow stronger if Welker continues to skip New England's offseason program.

The Patriots' mandatory minicamp is scheduled for June 12. The best advice is for Welker to have his mind made up by that time. Missing New England's current voluntary program is not a big thing. But if Welker also chooses to skip the Patriots' three-day veteran minicamp, that is when he's hurting the team in the eyes of the coaching staff.

At that point the gloves may come off with the Patriots -- and Welker doesn't want that.

New England is emotionless and shrewd in negotiations. Just ask three-time Super Bowl winner Willie McGinest, who apparently still carries some level of bitterness about how he was handled by the Patriots at the end of his career. McGinest recently got into a Twitter spat with Welker about his contract situation and delivered this stern message.

"We're all expendable at Patriot Place," McGinest tweeted to Welker.

McGinest is right. NFL players in general are expendable, but even more so in New England.

Welker needs to be more mindful of how Patriots players often are treated like replaceable and interchangeable parts. It happened to McGinest, who spent the final three years of his career with the struggling Cleveland Browns. It happened to Richard Seymour, who was great for eight seasons with the Patriots and suddenly shipped to the Oakland Raiders for a first-round draft pick. The Patriots also traded future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings when Moss grew unhappy about his contract.

Welker should know better. No one player is above the team in New England. That is the Patriot Way.

This is not to say Welker hasn't worked hard and doesn't have a point about long-term security. This is more about wisely navigating the cruel business side of the NFL. It's all about leverage. Welker has little. New England has plenty. Sometimes it's best to accept your fate and move forward.

Welker remains steadfast in shedding the franchise tag for a long-term contract.

"Through my body of work, through the past five years, I think what I've done I've earned a long-term deal,” Welker recently told ESPN Boston Radio. "It's what I am looking for and what I want. Hopefully that's the case and hopefully we come to something where we can make that happen."

Do not think for one second that New England is not prepared for the worst. All the Patriots have done this offseason is sign wide receivers.

New England signed receivers Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Gonzalez and Donte’ Stallworth in free agency. All are productive veterans who have a chance to add something to the offense. The Patriots also re-signed veteran Deion Branch, backup Matthew Slater, and drafted rookie receiver Jeremy Ebert. Chad Ochocinco and Julian Edelman also remain on the roster.

New England will have an elite passing game next season with or without Welker.

If Welker decides to stage a lengthy holdout, Lloyd and Gaffney would be the starters, while Branch, Gonzalez, Stallworth and Ochocinco compete in training camp for backup roles. New England also runs a lot of two tight-end sets with Pro Bowler Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This is still a very deep and talented group of targets for Brady, who also has a knack for making everyone around him a couple of notches better.

Despite 122 receptions and 1,569 yards last year, the Patriots have found a way to make Welker replaceable. But that's only if Welker chooses to be and doesn't sign his franchise tender.

There's always a chance the Patriots could have a change of heart between now and August. New England has the salary-cap room to extend the 31-year-old Welker and give him the long-term security he's seeking. But it's going to be on the Patriots' terms, not Welker's.

The next move should be the best move by Welker. He should sign the franchise tag, take the $9.5 million and see if anything changes over the next several months at Patriot Place.

The New England Patriots only had one weakness on offense last year: They couldn't get vertical and behind the defense.

Consider that problem solved Saturday, after the Patriots agreed to terms with veteran big-play receiver Brandon Lloyd. The move was expected for weeks, as Lloyd reunites with Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The pair were very successful during their stint together with the Denver Broncos.

Lloyd joins a dangerous cast of receivers and tight ends that include Pro Bowl receiver Wes Welker, Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski and up-and-coming tight end Aaron Hernandez. Lloyd averages 15.4 yards per reception for his career and gives future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady the deep threat he's been missing since Randy Moss. The Patriots' offense will be a matchup nightmare for opponents next season.

New England also has depth behind the starters with former Pro Bowler Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman and newly-signed receiver Anthony Gonzalez. There may be a small question with the experience of New England's stable of running backs. But look for New England to air it out anyway to set up the run.

Lloyd is a typical Patriots free-agent signing. He was not the biggest name on the market, but Lloyd should be very productive.

New England no longer has to worry about any facet of its high-powered offense for 2012. Now, the Patriots can use the rest of their resources in free agency and the draft to focus on their 31st-ranked defense.

A look at a game in which the visiting Kansas City Chiefs were eventually worn down by the New England Patriots:

What it means: The Chiefs are now 4-6 after their 34-3 loss. They trail the Oakland Raiders by two games in the AFC West. Kansas City is tied with the San Diego Chargers for last place in the division. The Denver Broncos are 5-5.

Team of streaks: The Chiefs are on their second three-game losing streak of the season. They sandwiched it with a four-game winning streak.

Getting tricky: The Chiefs used a lot of fast snaps, they used the Wildcat and they tried an onside kick. In the end, it didn’t matter. But an undermanned team on the road needs to try anything and Chiefs’ coach Todd Haley was up for anything.

Second-half blues: The Chiefs actually led this game in the first quarter 3-0. The Patriots scored all but seven of their points in the final 31 minutes of the game. The Chiefs hung in this game for a while, but the Patriots eventually overtook them in every phase of the game.

Tough start to a tough stretch: It doesn’t get any easier for Kansas City. It entered the week with the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. It plays Pittsburgh, Chicago, the Jets, Green Bay, Oakland and Denver in the final six games.

Palko wasn’t horrible: Tyler Palko had his issues and he threw three interceptions. But in his first start Palko had his moments, especially early in the game. He didn’t look like a player who was lost. After entering the game with just 13 total NFL passes under his belt, he completed 25 of 38 passes for 236 yards. The left-hander looks like a coachable player who can improve. He’ll get his chance. The Chiefs put starter Matt Cassel on the injured reserve with a broken thumb on Monday. He was injured in a loss to Denver last week. I’m interested to see how Palko responds after getting more practice time. He had a nice chemistry with receivers Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston. They had a combined 13 catches for 160 yards.

Jones plays well: Veteran running back Thomas Jones had 48 yards rushing on eight carries. The Chiefs ran for 119 yards on 26 carries.

Getting pressure: The Chiefs sacked Tom Brady three times, all in the first half. Like every other aspect of the Chiefs on Monday night, the pass-rush dwindled in the second half.

Got Gronked: New England tight end Rob Gronkowski lit up the Chiefs. He had touchdown catches of 52 and 19 yards. Kansas City simply didn’t have an answer for him.

Not so special: New England broke the game open with just less than 10 minutes remaining on a 72-yard punt return for a score by Julian Edelman.

What’s next: The Chiefs are on prime time again in Week 12. They host Pittsburgh Sunday evening.

DETROIT -- Rapid reaction from the New England Patriots' 34-10 preseason loss to the Detroit Lions at Ford Field:

Thorough beating. After two preseason games in which the Patriots looked like an elite team, they crashed back to earth in this one. The Lions took it to them in almost every facet of the game. Players can expect some hard coaching from Bill Belichick, who looked disgusted on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the Lions looked at this game as a gauge to see how they measured up with the NFL's elite. They were excellent.

Lions' pressure gets to Brady. Quarterback Tom Brady didn't look like the 2010 Most Valuable Player. His night ended after one three-and-out series in the third quarter. The Lions hit him early and Brady never got into a rhythm, missing some throws he usually makes easily. One of the few highlights was a 44-yard touchdown pass to Wes Welker in the second quarter. Overall, the Lions' powerful defensive line -- without end Kyle Vanden Bosch -- dictated the way the game was played. The Patriots' protection was spotty as Brady finished 12-of-22 for 145 yards, with one touchdown and one interception.

Welker, Connolly, Wilhite & Edelman leave with injuries. On the injury front, receiver Welker (neck), starting right guard Dan Connolly (right ankle), cornerback Jonathan Wilhite (undisclosed but walked off under own power) and receiver Julian Edelman (hand) all left the game and didn't return. Welker's last play came at the end of the second quarter when he made a hard tackle on a Brady interception.

Quiet night for Ochocinco. The chemistry with wide receiver Chad Ochocinco and Brady is not where it needs to be. In-game statistician charts Ochocinco as being targeted four times, but he finishes without a catch.

Matthew Stafford the player of the game. Credit to Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was the star of the game in finishing 12-of-14 for 200 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots couldn't generate the same type of pressure they did in the first two games. The entire defense was disjointed, with communication between the back end and front seven all over the map. Players were visibly frustrated as they talked to each other on the field after successful Lions plays. Overall, the Patriots lost a lot of one-on-one battles, particularly in the secondary. A night to forget on that side of the ball after two preseason games in which they dominated.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Music was blaring when the New York Jets swung open the steel door to the visitors locker room in Gillette Stadium.

"On to the Next One" by Jay-Z and Swizz Beatz was an appropriate anthem. The Jets had done away with the New England Patriots in such a shockingly easy manner Sunday night. Next up, the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field for the honor of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Jets trailed by a field goal for less than six minutes in the first half and led by two scores for most of the game. They eliminated the top-seeded and preordained Patriots from the playoffs 28-21 and avenged that mortifying 42-point loss six weeks earlier on "Monday Night Football."

As reporters filed into the locker room, Jets safety James Ihedigbo's voice could be heard above the cocksure lyrics and thumping bass.

"They all doubted us!" Ihedigbo yelled over and again. "They all doubted us!"

Yes, we most certainly did. I'm most definitely included.

There will be a crow shortage in butcher shops across the country. I'm eating mine with a little Caribbean jerk sauce as I write this. It's a bit gamey.

With conviction, I wrote and said on television and radio throughout the past week the Jets would not win. Like so many of you, I was certain the Patriots would smack them around. Sure, I gave conciliatory analysis on how the Jets could win: dominate on the ground, dominate on third downs and Jeff Gillooly kneecapping Tom Brady during the national anthem.

But as I mentioned in my weekly AFC East chat, people in their right mind couldn't predict the Jets to win Sunday after watching them get razed in Week 13.

Not even Jets icon Joe Namath could bring himself to pick the Jets.

"There was nobody in this room that picked us," Jets outside linebacker Jason Taylor said. "Except us."

But Taylor also acknowledged how difficult it would have been for outsiders not to side with the Patriots.

"They beat the crap out of us," he said.

That Week 13 loss was so awful that Jets coach Rex Ryan held a funeral for the game ball out on the practice field.

Saturday night on ESPN 1050 in New York, Bonnie Bernstein and I made fun of her co-host, former Jets quarterback Ray Lucas, for being a homer and forecasting a Jets victory.

Really, Ray? A sane human being? I could sense Rutgers purging his transcripts while he spoke such kookiness.

No team in NFL history had lost by at least 35 points in the regular season and then won a rematch in the playoffs. In each of the previous five instances, the losing team lost by at least two scores in the rematch.

Even so, the Jets wouldn't be denied. They backed up their boastful claims and profane insults and walloped the Patriots in their own building.

"We beat them the first game, check. They came back and beat us, check," Jets linebacker Bart Scott said. "We came in when it counted the most, checkmate."

As Scott spoke, Ihedigbo kept at it: "They all doubted us, Bart!"

"We just let you guys build them up, let them read those things," Scott continued, "and Wes Welker can go kick rocks."

The Jets won, as many prognosticators said they perhaps could, by running well (120 yards) and converting third downs (46 percent compared with the Patriots' 36 percent).

"You all probably thought I was arrogant and just talking out the side of my face," Scott said of the bold proclamations the Jets made during the week. "Look at our roster, look at their roster. We got better players all across the field.

"Perception isn't reality all the time. I guess the cream rised to the top."

Freak injuries didn't befall Brady, but he did have another pedestrian postseason game. He has lost three in a row, dating back to his lone Super Bowl loss.

Ryan highlighted Brady's recent mediocrity while preparing for the game. He showed the Jets that Brady was fallible by broaching the stats from the Patriots' previous three postseason games. Brady averaged 5.1 yards per attempt, had more interceptions than touchdowns and a 66.8 passer rating.

Before Brady completed five of seven attempts for 59 yards and a touchdown against the Jets' prevent defense on the final drive of the game, he was averaging 3.2 yards less per attempt than he did in the regular-season and had a 78.8 passer rating, 32 points below his regular-season number.

The Jets sacked him five times. Shaun Ellis got him twice.

"This was the quarterback that couldn't be touched," Scott said. "You guys talk about how great he's playing, but you know what Rex pulled out for us were his last three playoff games and what his record was and what his ranking was then.

"You guys didn't look deep enough into the notes. That's what we leaned on. We knew we had more playoff experience than that team. We knew that when the pressure was on those young guys wouldn't be able to play at a high level. We've been there, done that."

The Patriots also made some in-game blunders. On their 38-yard line, Patriots safety Patrick Chung botched a direct snap on a fake punt with 1:06 left in the first half. Four plays later, Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez connected with Braylon Edwards for a 15-yard touchdown and 14-3 halftime lead.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick refused to discuss the fake punt.

"You got the guru on the other side," Scott said sarcastically. "You talk about how great he is. Maybe you guys'll start giving our coach some credit for knowing what he's doing.

"I love my coach. Let me tell you something: I would die for that man."

Sanchez was efficient in a stadium where he'd never won before. In fact, Sanchez had one touchdown and seven interceptions in his prior Foxborough visits. Sunday, he completed 16 of his 25 attempts for 194 yards and three touchdowns.

The Jets' defense was strong despite their offense having the ball nearly 10 minutes less than the Patriots. The Patriots ran 78 plays to the Jets' 54, a ratio that would seem to favor Brady. But the Patriots converted only five third downs, two in the first half.

Subtract 11-yard runs from receivers Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman and the Patriots averaged 3.5 yards a carry.

The Jets were the better team in every phase of the sport. They walked the walk. Sanchez, not Brady, took a snap out of the victory formation and took a knee to run out the clock.

The Patriots will clean out their locker stalls this week.

"The people that say bad things about us, who doubt us, who think we're clowns just running around and talking," Jets outside linebacker Calvin Pace, "they don't know the character of the guys in this room.

"It was us against the world, coming in here. But we did it. We're on to Pittsburgh."

With head coach Tony Sparano's job in the balance, the Miami Dolphins came up small Sunday in Gillette Stadium.

The hodgepodge New England Patriots rested their top two wide receivers and best pass-rushers and shuffled backups in and out of the game throughout. Yet they still dominated the Dolphins 38-7.

The Patriots were up 38-0 with almost seven minutes left in the third quarter. The Dolphins avoided getting skunked when Davone Bess scored with 2:17 to play.

Dolphins owner Stephen Ross, who publicly declared before the season that his team was Super Bowl bound, must be embarrassed.

Ross didn't attend the game and reportedly was out of the country. Sparano, his staff and his players should pray that wherever Ross was they don't show NFL games on television.

The Dolphins were 6-5 and still had hope after Thanksgiving. They lost four of their last five games. The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions beat them in Sun Life Stadium before the preseason-mode Patriots gave the Dolphins a clear idea how far behind they are in the AFC East.

The Dolphins went 1-7 at home this season, tying their worst record in club history. The only other time they were so bad at home was when they went 1-15 the year before Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland arrived.

Ross didn't hire them. Former football operations boss Bill Parcells did with former owner Wayne Huizenga's consent. Huizenga sold the team shortly thereafter. Parcells supposedly still is with the Dolphins as a consultant, but he cleaned out his office months ago.

Ross put an emphasis on making Sun Life Stadium an entertainment destination from the moment he took over the Dolphins. One measly victory in an arena that was half-full toward the end of the season is unacceptable. And if Sparano can't motivate his players to play with any kind of edge, then how can Ross expect fans to respond at the box office?

The Patriots had nothing to play for Sunday other than tuning up for the postseason. It was like an exhibition for them.

But with jobs on the line, the Dolphins didn't show up.

Miami's offense, defense and special teams were equally disgusting. They gave up big plays all over the field. Their breakdowns were both strategic and mental. Tackling was poor. They committed bad penalties.

Chad Henne threw an interception on the opening drive and had a 29.2 passer rating in the first half. Dan Carpenter missed another field goal, this one from 40 yards. Ricky Williams fumbled, and Ronnie Brown ran six times for 14 yards in what might be the last games as Dolphins for the backfield mates.

Miami went into Week 17 with the third-ranked defense. Even with Wes Welker and Deion Branch not on the field, Tom Brady completed 10 of 16 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

The Dolphins' secondary also got torched by the immortal combo of Brian Hoyer to Brandon Tate for a 42-yard touchdown in the third quarter. One play before the bomb, the Dolphins' defensive line encroached on fourth-and-1.

The Patriots gained 502 yards -- that doesn't include Julian Edelman's 94-yard punt return for a touchdown -- and had the ball for over 36 minutes.

A call from the governor might not even save Sparano after a performance like that, and he has a direct line to Tallahassee. Dolphins cornerback Nolan Carroll's mother is Florida's new lieutenant governor.

When Ross gets around to examining what transpired Sunday in Gillette Stadium, it very well could be a lethal inspection.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Rapid reaction from the Patriots' 38-7 victory against the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium:

What it means. The Patriots finish the season 14-2 in a successful year that few saw coming because of the turnover on the roster. With the No. 1 seed having already been locked up entering the day, some of the things the Patriots were looking to accomplish were to maintain momentum, rest some injured players, and avoid serious injury. They checked out in almost every area.

Woodhead's injury bears watching. Running back Danny Woodhead left the game in the first quarter with a head injury and did not return. He appeared shaken up on the play during which he lost a fumble, and it looked like members of the team's medical staff were giving him a concussion-related test on the sideline. Woodhead remained on the sideline throughout the game. The other notable injury from a Patriots' perspective was with defensive lineman Myron Pryor, who left the game in the third quarter with an eye injury.

Green-Ellis gets his 1,000. BenJarvus Green-Ellis' 10-yard run early in the fourth quarter gave him 1,000 yards for the season, and the reaction on the sidelines showed how much it meant to the team. Bill Belichick gave Green-Ellis an embrace, as did offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, who coordinates the running game. Offensive linemen and others also approached Green-Ellis as he made his way back to the sideline, and the ball was wrapped up and put away for Green-Ellis to keep. The scene on the sideline showed that Patriots players and coaches, who often stress the importance of team, also pay attention to individual milestones and what they mean.

Brady plays into the third quarter. With much of the focus leading into the game focusing on how much the starters would play, the Patriots kept quarterback Tom Brady in the game through the first series of the second half. At that point, the Patriots had built a 31-0 lead. Elsewhere, the Patriots played it safe with Wes Welker (not on injury report) and Deion Branch (knee), declaring them inactive before the game.

Highlighting some top individual efforts. In addition to Green-Ellis, some of the top individual performances for the Patriots came from receiver Julian Edelman (94-yard punt return), tight end Rob Gronkowski (10th TD catch of the year), cornerback Devin McCourty (7th interception of the year), defensive lineman Vince Wilfork (2 sacks), outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich (2 sacks), receiver Brandon Tate (diving 42-yard touchdown catch) and quarterbacks Brady (10 for 16, 199 yards, 2 TDs) and Brian Hoyer (first career TD pass).

Dolphins' future figures to be hot topic of discussion. With the Dolphins delivering a poor performance, the future of head coach Tony Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland is likely to be a hot topic of discussion. Should they return? Also, quarterback Chad Henne and Tyler Thigpen shared snaps, which figures to lead to more questions about whether Henne is the long-term answer at the position in Miami.

What is next. The Patriots have a first-round playoff bye and will host the lowest remaining seed on the weekend of Jan. 15-16.

The annual AFC showdown is upon us, and with it come the recurring storylines.

That's right, the Indianapolis Colts will meet the New England Patriots on Sunday for an eighth straight season. The NFL's greatest ongoing interdivisional rivalry showcases two of the great organizations of this generation and renews the discussion about Peyton Manning's stats versus Tom Brady's championships.

We've decided to rekindle the debate, but before you throw your head back and groan in anticipation of the clichés, hold your horseshoes.

The purpose of this debate is to eliminate Manning and Brady and look into the future.

Which team has the better long-range outlook once Manning and Brady move on?

For the purpose of this discussion, we've set the target for 2015 -- one year beyond the length of Brady's latest contract extension -- to examine which team has the better infrastructure to cope with life minus its iconic quarterback.

Tim Graham: Time to get after it, Paul. But no weapons this time, please. I've just recently completed the physical therapy from our last debate.

Paul Kuharsky: Well, this back-and-forth will be less physically taxing, and since there is so much forecasting, you may actually be able to put your Jedi training to use.

Graham: Get this debate started we shall, hmmm?

Kuharsky: So what do the Colts and Patriots have now that's going to be a big factor for them in five years?

I count eight guys who are in their first, second or third year with the franchise who I expect will still be prime contributors in 2015. But only three of the eight fit into the framework of the four most important positions on the field -- quarterback, left tackle, defensive end and cornerback. Those players would be corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey and defensive end Jerry Hughes.

Hughes is still unproven, but it's early and Colts president Bill Polian saw the potential for him to ultimately replace a Dwight Freeney or a Robert Mathis.

Others who may still be staples when Manning is gone: receiver Austin Collie, linebacker Pat Angerer, tight end Jacob Tamme, tight end Brody Eldridge and punter Pat McAfee. Can that group be the core of a team that continues to win? I wish I could offer a solid yes or no instead of a tepid maybe.

Beyond that, we've got five drafts to consider, right? And Polian regularly finds undrafted gems. I don't doubt the Colts will have talent. But they'll need new Freeney-, Dallas Clark- and Reggie Wayne-caliber stars, plus the replacement quarterback.

Graham: Patriots overlord Bill Belichick has drawn deserved criticism for his draft failures. He has swung and missed at his share of Terrence Wheatleys and Kevin O'Connells and Chad Jacksons in the early rounds.

But when you accumulate as many picks as the Patriots have and have elite football minds evaluating the talent, those bad decisions are going to even out eventually. The Patriots appear to be warming up when it comes to successful drafting.

The Patriots went into Heinz Field and manhandled the Pittsburgh Steelers with four rookies in their starting defensive lineup (defensive end Brandon Deaderick, outside linebacker Jermaine Cunningham, inside linebacker Brandon Spikes and left cornerback Devin McCourty) and a rookie tight end (Rob Gronkowski), who caught three touchdowns. Another rookie tight end (Aaron Hernandez) ranks second on the team in catches and receiving yards. Their punter is a rookie.

They don't have as many second- and third-year contributors, but inside linebacker Jerod Mayo was defensive rookie of the year in 2008. Among the sophomores are starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and receivers Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman, who also handle return duties.

Without question, there will be a drop-off at quarterback when Brady retires, but the Patriots are loaded with core youth.

Kuharsky: The Colts may draft better, but they also draft less. Polian's not the draft pick wheeler-and-dealer Belichick is. Are those the guys who will be lining up the Manning and Brady successors?

It's a quarterback-driven league, and teams minus Manning and Brady will have major voids. We've got to talk about the replacements for the iconic quarterbacks, but it's hard to offer much conjecture on what kind of guy that will be without talking about who will be finding him.

Polian is 67 years old, and the last time I asked him about any sort of plan for retirement he gave me a head tilt and an uncomfortable expression.

Graham: I've noticed a lot of people do that around you.

Kuharsky: If things are neat and tidy, the suspicion is he and Manning -- the guy he hit the jackpot with when he picked him over Ryan Leaf -- will exit together. The next generation is waiting in the wings. Chris Polian is Indianapolis' vice president and general manager.

I'd expect Bill Polian will have a strong hand in selecting the Colts' quarterback of the future. But it will ultimately be Chris Polian who's connected to that signal-caller the way Bill Polian is connected to Manning. The younger Polian has a good reputation and good football genes, but it's hard to know how much of his father's personnel judgment he's inherited and how much he's learned. And having to replace a guy many will argue is the greatest quarterback of all time will be an awfully difficult assignment.

Graham: I don't know how long Belichick plans to coach, but even if he were to get tired of the week-to-week grind of getting his boys ready to play, it's fathomable he'll stick around to run the operation, handpicking his successor and overseeing football operations.

It would be silly to give Belichick more than a smidgen of credit for drafting Brady in the sixth round a decade ago. If Belichick truly knew what Brady was capable of, the Patriots wouldn't have passed on him until the 199th pick. So it's not like Belichick will simply wait until Brady's on the verge of retirement and automatically snag a replacement.

Kuharsky: True. But they knew more than everybody else when they finally did take him.

Graham: Belichick trusted his scout, and they unearthed a gem.

I believe Belichick's support staff is stronger than Polian's. Senior adviser Floyd Reese oversaw the Houston Oilers and Tennessee Titans' drafts when they picked Steve McNair and Vince Young. Player personnel director Nick Caserio, like a lot of Belichick's sidekicks over the years, will develop the tools to run his own show someday.

Kuharsky: I don't know that Belichick's got better support. It's just more well known and visible support.

Graham: And a high-profile owner who is willing to trust his front office, will spend money and doesn't dare meddle. That's another key component to New England's success over the past decade.

Kuharsky: Moving onto the replacement quarterback himself, Curtis Painter is Manning's current backup. But based on his work in a couple of regular-season games the team didn't care about winning at the end of last season and some preseason work, most people aren't forecasting anything special from him. And that would amount to quite a lengthy apprenticeship anyway.

Graham: You wouldn't think the Patriots have Brady's successor on the roster either. Brian Hoyer is an undrafted sophomore with virtually no experience so far. But you never can tell how these guys will develop while working alongside Brady for a few years. This is the team that identified Matt Cassel, a seventh-round draft choice who hadn't started a game since high school, as its top backup for 2008. He ended up going 11-5 when Brady blew out his knee.

Kuharsky: The Colts will need a guy for a super-tough replacement job. It would be awfully difficult for them to land in a Aaron Rodgers for Brett Favre or Michael Vick for Donovan McNabb replacement situation.

After hitting a grand slam with the No. 1 pick in 1998, odds would suggest that it will be tough for them to line up with the right guy at the right pick at the right time. The way they build, odds are Manning's heir will be a guy who plays a full college career. So he's a college freshman or a high-school senior right now, depending on their plan for easing him in.

Graham: The Colts and Patriots finish too high in the standings every year and don't get to pick until the 20s. That will make it nearly impossible to snag some golden-armed top prospect in their assigned draft positions. But the Patriots frequently go into drafts with other teams' picks -- and an abundance of them. They often have copious draft assets to move up if they want to. Or maybe the Patriots will obtain that big-ticket pick waaaaay in advance. A year ago, Belichick traded Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for their 2011 first-round selection. That's the kind of creative investing that could pay off with a high-quality quarterback prospect down the road.

Kuharsky: It will definitely be more difficult for the Colts to get to the top of a draft to get a premier guy. And there may need to be a post-Manning down-cycle for the team to get up there and find the guy. Scribes in Indianapolis often wonder aloud what happens to the Colts' crazed support if they turn into a 5-11 rebuilding project. The rest of the AFC South certainly hopes that's how it works, and that the division is a lot more wide open once Manning's not in it.

And while we're forecasting five years out, I have two questions: Will Manning still be a deadpanning TV commercial superstar? And will Brady have had a haircut?

Graham: There's one unwavering prediction I can make about hair, Paul, but it's not about Brady's.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- There was no disputing how much the New England Patriots feared Randy Moss.

The Patriots weren't going to let him return to Gillette Stadium on Sunday and make them look bad for trading him to the Minnesota Vikings. The Patriots played him physically, and they played him deep.

Their approach opened underneath and intermediate routes for Percy Harvin and didn't provide much run support to gang up on Adrian Peterson. But the strategy worked.

The Patriots essentially removed Moss from the game and then moved on from him with a 28-18 victory over the Vikings. Moss caught one pass for 8 yards and gave up on a play that should have been a touchdown, while the Patriots' new deep threat went 65 yards for a back-breaking score.

The game couldn't have developed any better for validating the controversial Oct. 6 Moss trade. The Patriots A) won without him, B) refused to let him do any damage and C) received team-wide contributions from the players expected to pick up the slack of his departure.

"I guess you can say it's a relief to get this one out of the way," Patriots cornerback Kyle Arrington said. "But there's relief to get every one out of the way. There's always going to be a storyline in every game you play."

Moss' homecoming provided a substantially bigger plot than most weeks. If not for Brett Favre Ankle Watch, the return of a controversial figure to play the team that traded him away three weeks prior would have been the hottest topic.

The Patriots ostensibly put the trade behind them. Had they not kept Moss in check, had he helped the Vikings beat the Patriots with the type of explosive performance he's famous for, then second-guessing would have been rampant.

Bill Belichick made sure Moss wouldn't hurt them Sunday. They gave up the underneath to Harvin, as many Patriots opponents did to Wes Welker when Moss was on the field with him.

Harvin had six receptions for 104 yards. Peterson ran 25 times for 92 yards and a touchdown and added five catches for 50 yards.

Welker hasn't had that kind of space since Moss departed. In those three games, Welker has 14 catches for 102 yards.

But it hasn't mattered. The Patriots are undefeated over that span and have climbed atop the AFC East after the New York Jets were shut out by the Green Bay Packers.

That's why what happened Sunday renders the Moss trade more of a footnote than an ongoing debate. The Vikings threw at him three times. He had zero catches in the first half, one for 8 yards in the second half. He drew a 24-yard pass interference call on safety Brandon Meriweather, but Moss gave up on the play when the flag was thrown and he failed to catch the ball at the goal line for what would have been an easy touchdown.

Perhaps just as significant as muzzling Moss were the performances of several players who must come together to fill his void for the rest of the year.

Second-year receiver Brandon Tate showed off open-field speed with his first NFL offensive touchdown in the third quarter to give the Patriots a lead they wouldn't surrender.

Tate bailed out Tom Brady on a play that broke down. Brady pirouetted to avoid the pass rush, so Tate improvised. Tate bolted up the Vikings' sideline to separate from cornerback Asher Allen. Brady made the toss to a wide-open Tate at about the Vikings' 45-yard line. Tate ran diagonally across the field, pulling away from Allen and bidding safety Madieu Williams adieu.

"He's so dangerous in the open field," Brady said. "He's tough to tackle. It was great to see the back of his jersey, running. That was pretty sweet."

Running back Danny Woodhead had a rushing touchdown and led the Patriots in receptions with five for 45 yards. In the fourth quarter, he picked up a colossal first down on a third-and-12 reception with the Patriots up by just a field goal. Woodhead gained 16 yards to keep the chains moving, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis eventually scored to punctuate a monster second half. Green-Ellis ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns after the intermission.

Although Brady has conceded the Patriots' offense isn't as good without Moss, the team is getting along just fine, thank you.

"The coaches do a great job of using all the guys," said Deion Branch, the receiver who replaced Moss in roster terms. Branch was stretching his tight hamstring on the sideline when Tate sprinted into the end zone. "We're one solid group, a pretty good group. Nobody's selfish. We all want the football, but there's only one ball.

"It just goes to show you the depth that we have. Julian [Edelman] can do the same things. He's not on the field, but his time will come, too."

The day after the Patriots traded Moss, Belichick called a news conference and reminded everyone there's a reason they've won more games than any other team over the past decade. To paraphrase: "We know what we're doing." Belichick might as well have worn his three Super Bowl rings and theatrically wiped his brow when he said it.

"You know how I feel about Randy," Belichick said shortly after his team pushed to 6-1 and embraced Moss on the field. "I've talked about him many times. He's a Hall of Fame receiver and made a lot of great contributions here. I'm glad I had the opportunity to coach him. He was a special player to coach.

"But today he was the competition. That's the way it is in this league."

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Baltimore Ravens safety Tom Zbikowski is a former prizefighter and looked like he'd just climbed into a ring. A black, hooded sweatshirt obscured his face while he meandered aimlessly in a corner of the Gillette Stadium visitors locker room, talking out loud to nobody after playing the New England Patriots on Sunday.

Zbikowski muttered a run-on sentence about the Patriots having two weeks to prepare with a bye week and still barely beat the Ravens at home and needed their best performance to do it and just wait until the playoffs, when the Ravens will roll them again, just like they did last year in the same building and ...

That's what Tom Brady can do to his opponents, leave them talking to themselves after a game they thought they should've won but didn't.

In boxing parlance, the Patriots outslugged the Ravens to eke out a 23-20 majority decision in overtime. The Ravens outfoxed the Patriots for much of the afternoon, but a late flurry from Brady and his menagerie of receivers put them over the top.

Zbikowski has a point about the Patriots benefiting from an extra week of prep for the Ravens, a team many considered the NFL's most complete.

But Brady went into Sunday without his haymaker for the first time in four seasons. Randy Moss, the powerhouse deep threat, was running fly patterns in the Metrodome instead.

Brady conceded in an interview that aired on the NFL Network before the game "It'd be foolish to think" the Patriots would be better without Moss, and early in the game it appeared they would miss him dearly.

The Patriots' offense couldn't find a rhythm. Through three quarters, Brady was 11-of-20 for 136 yards and no touchdowns with an interception for a 55.4 passer rating. The Ravens sacked him twice and drilled him on a couple plays and the Patriots found themselves down by 10 at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis claimed a team should win 80 percent of the time when it plays as well as the Ravens did Sunday.

The problem was, a 20 percent chance for Brady might not be a bad bet.

In the fourth quarter and overtime, Brady strafed the Ravens. The Patriots went no huddle. In the fourth quarter and overtime Brady completed 16-of-24 for 156 yards and one touchdown with one interception on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of regulation time. The Ravens sacked him once.

"We did a good job of frenzying him," Ravens outside linebacker Terrell Suggs said, "but eventually he's going to make some plays."

In the first game since the Patriots reacquired Deion Branch in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks, he had nine receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown. Brady spread the ball around to slot receiver Wes Welker (seven catches, 53 yards), running back Danny Woodhead (five catches, 52 yards) and rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez (four catches, 61 yards).

Welker, Woodhead and Julian Edelman are among the interchangeable parts. The Patriots have gathered them like collectibles. Maybe that's because they're the size of action figures. No matter, they get the job done.

"You have those tight ends and those itty, bitty receivers running all over the place," Ravens linebacker Jarret Johnson said.

Ravens safety Dawan Landry chuckled when asked if the Patriots were any easier to defend without Moss on the field.

"They're still the Patriots," Landry said. "They got rid of [Moss] for a reason. They feel like the guys they have can get the job done. I think they can. They'll be OK."

New England couldn't blow the top off Baltimore's defense without Moss. Brady went deep just twice, a long incompletion to Brandon Tate and the 44-yard jump ball before overtime.

New England's game plan, however, wasn't much different.

Receivers worked the sidelines, underneath crosses, screens. They're finely tuned that way, and even though Baltimore could stick an extra defender nearer the line of scrimmage without Moss to worry about (Welker didn't have a single third-down catch for the first time since opening night 2009), versatile receivers running precision routes with a quarterback who can throw darts will keep any offense dangerous.

Moss "is one of the greatest vertical guys in the game, but they're not going to adjust their game plan to one guy," Johnson said. "You'd have to account for him because he's so good, but they're just going to plug another guy in.

"When you got that scheme and Tom Brady, you're going to be good. They're a heady team. ... I'm not going to sit here and give some epic speech about how great he is, but it's easy. They're going to attack where you're vulnerable, and that's what they did."

The Patriots have been doing that since Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe nine years ago. Brady has been the common denominator, not Moss.

Defenses might have less to fear without Moss streaking up the field, leaping over a defender for a grab or making a one-handed stab in the end zone.

But if they don't stop Brady, then there's a good chance they'll be muttering to themselves about what they'll do next time in a rematch.

There has to be a sigh of relief coming from several defensive backs in the AFC North. Three division teams caught a break Wednesday as the New England Patriots traded future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings.


Not only does Moss leave the AFC, but the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns all get to face the Patriots this year without one of the league's best deep threats. New England's next game -- the first this season without Moss -- will be Oct. 17 against Baltimore. It will be a rematch of last season's wild-card victory by the Ravens.

The Patriots also play the Browns on Nov. 7 and the Steelers a week later on Nov. 14. Moss caught five passes for 59 yards in New England's 38-24 win against the Bengals in Week 1.

New England's passing game is not nearly as dynamic without Moss. Wes Welker, Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman now highlight the Patriots' receiving corps.

This trade definitely hurts the Patriots (3-1) in their quest to reach the Super Bowl. The AFC is deep, and the AFC North also has at least two teams --Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-1) -- considered strong title contenders. It could only help teams like the Ravens and Steelers if one playoff contender makes itself less formidable with a huge in-season trade.

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- First impressions from the Patriots’ 38-30 victory over the Bills:

What it means: The Patriots (2-1, 1-1 AFC East) get back in the win column after living all week with the bad taste of last week’s 28-14 loss to the Jets. It’s an important win, as it comes in the AFC East and is the second part of a three-week stretch of all division games. The Bills drop to 0-3 overall and 0-2 in the division.

What’s next. The Patriots visit the Dolphins in a Monday night clash on ESPN. The Dolphins host the Jets Sunday night in a game that will also reshape AFC East picture.

Danny Woodhead a surprise story. When the Patriots signed the former New York Jet last Saturday, some assumed that it was solely a case of gamesmanship leading into the team’s game against the Jets. But Woodhead was a key performer in this game, with a 22-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. He added a 15-yarder in the fourth quarter as he was part of the team’s plan to fill the void created by losing Kevin Faulk’s to a torn right ACL.

Patriots defense does enough, but still a concern. The Patriots’ defense rose up in some crucial situations, such as third down, but this was an overall shaky performance from the unit. The secondary, in particular, had a rough day as the Bills seemed energized by the quarterback change with Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over for Trent Edwards, which created more of a deep-ball threat.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis an unsung performer. When the game was close in the third quarter and the Patriots needed a sustained drive, the third-year running back delivered some hard-charging running. Green-Ellis helped settle the Patriots’ offense down at a time when the team had to adjust on the fly without Fred Taylor (toe injury). He also showed situational awareness by staying in bounds on the team’s final drive.

Aaron Hernandez emerging as big part of the Patriots’ offense. For the second straight week, the rookie tight end had six catches (for 65 yards), while adding a 13-yard run. The Patriots combined Hernandez, receiver Julian Edelman and running back Danny Woodhead to replace Faulk, and it was an effective plan.

C.J. Spiller shows why he’s a first-round draft pick. The Bills running back was a sparkplug, with a 5-yard touchdown reception, long run of 19 yards, and a 95-yard kickoff return for a score. He’s explosive, and this game had to be what Buffalo general manager Buddy Nix had in mind when selecting Spiller ninth overall.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- The New England Patriots have scratched running spy -- I mean, running back -- Danny Woodhead and will dress receiver Julian Edelman for Sunday afternoon's game against the New York Jets.

New England Patriots

• Running back Danny Woodhead
• Receiver Taylor Price
• Guard Nick Kaczur
• Guard Quinn Ojinnaka
• Tackle Steve Maneri
• Defensive lineman Brandon Deaderick
• Linebacker Dane Fletcher
• Cornerback Terrence Wheatley

New York Jets

• Quarterback Kellen Clemens
• Running back Joe McKnight
• Guard Vladimir Ducasse
• Tackle Patrick Brown
• Tight end Jeff Cumberland
• Defensive tackle Marcus Dixon
• Defensive tackle Howard Green
• Outside linebacker Calvin Pace

On the day the New Orleans Saints held their Super Bowl parade, long before the free-agency period opened and the draft took place, Scouts Inc. analyst Gary Horton examined the top three needs of every NFL team heading into the offseason.

Now that we've gone through offseason workouts, minicamps, training camps and three preseason games, let's take a look at each AFC East need and determine whether it was addressed.

Buffalo Bills

1. Outside linebacker: At the time of Horton's analysis, he didn't know Aaron Schobel would retire. Schobel would have been Buffalo's best pass-rusher in its new 3-4 defense. The Bills signed free agent Reggie Torbor and are hoping a group that also includes Chris Kelsay, Chris Ellis and Aaron Maybin will suffice. Need addressed? No.

2. Left tackle: The Bills chose to stick with Demetrius Bell. The Bills still haven't drafted a tackle earlier than the fifth round since 2002. Of the two they did draft, fifth-rounder Ed Wang is hurt and seventh-rounder Kyle Calloway already has been released. The Bills did sign Oakland Raiders free agent Cornell Green to play right tackle. Need addressed? No.

3. Quarterback: The Bills did next to nothing at quarterback, drafting long-term project Levi Brown in the seventh round and letting Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm shoot it out. Edwards won a not-so-open competition. Need addressed? No.

Miami Dolphins

1. Wide receiver: Did the Dolphins address this need? Hmmm ... Let's see ... Oh, wait. That's right. They traded for Brandon Marshall, who has recorded triple-digit receptions in three straight seasons. Marshall was one of the most enormous transactions of the offseason. Need addressed? Yes.

2. Free safety: The Dolphins drafted Reshad Jones in the fifth round, but sophomore Chris Clemons has held down the position admirably. It won't be tough to outplay last year's starter, Gibril Wilson. Need addressed? Yes.

3. Nose tackle: The situation actually got worse and worse after Horton formed his analysis. Jason Ferguson was suspended eight games for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. The Dolphins re-signed Ferguson, but then he retired. The Dolphins didn't draft a nose tackle, choosing to convert defensive end Randy Starks instead. Starks is undersized for a traditional 3-4 nose tackle, but Dolphins coach Tony Sparano has claimed Starks' speed has upgraded the position. Need addressed? Yes.

New England Patriots

1. Outside linebacker: Horton wrote "This defense must generate pass-rush pressure from its outside linebackers, but the Pats are devoid of playmakers and have virtually no depth at this position." They've gotten shallower with the release of Adalius Thomas, who started their playoff game. Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess are back and penciled in as the starters. The Patriots drafted pass-rusher Jermaine Cunningham 53rd overall, but he has been too hurt to get on the practice field. Need addressed? No.

2. Wide receiver: Wes Welker was looking at a potentially long rehab at the time Horton wrote his offseason preview. Randy Moss' age also was a concern. But Welker's recovery has been quick. Moss has looked phenomenal. Emerging youngsters Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate and third-round draft pick Taylor Price should be more than enough. Need addressed? Yes.

3. Defensive end: Little did Horton know how badly the Patriots would need help here. Left end Ty Warren is done for the year because of a hip injury. Right end Jarvis Green split for the Denver Broncos. The Patriots signed free agent Gerard Warren and have moved last year's super reserve, Mike Wright, into the starting lineup. Need addressed? No.

New York Jets

1. Defensive end: Horton's concern was with the age of incumbents Shaun Ellis and Marques Douglas. Ellis is back. Douglas was a free agent who departed for the Dolphins. The Jets didn't draft any defensive linemen and didn't sign any notable free agents there. They did move Vernon Gholston from outside linebacker to defensive end. Need addressed? No.

2. Safety: Compared to the Jets' banner acquisitions, Brodney Pool was a blip. The Cleveland Browns gave up on him because of recurring concussions, but the Jets' medical staff found his problem was related to migraine headaches. He's a multifaceted safety with a nose for the ball, interception four passes in 10 games last year. Need addressed? Yes.

3. Wide receiver: The Jets practically stole Santonio Holmes from the Pittsburgh Steelers for a fifth-round draft choice. Holmes was the MVP of Super Bowl XLIII and was coming off a 1,248-yard season. But character issues, underscored by a four-game suspension to start the season, made him a bargain. Need addressed? Yes.

The Miami Dolphins unleashed their Wildcat offense out of desperation.

Trying to build something under new head coach Tony Sparano after a 15-loss season, they opened the 2008 campaign 0-2. Their passing game couldn't stretch the field, but they did boast a deep and talented backfield.

If only they could figure out a way to utilize multiple running backs on a given play ...

Sound familiar, Buffalo Bills fans?

New head coach Chan Gailey has a quarterback known as Captain Checkdown, a stable of running backs and nothing to lose. He also isn't afraid to get creative. After all, he helped create the "Slash" role for Kordell Stewart with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Gailey was asked Monday whether the Wildcat was possible in Buffalo.

"Oh, yeah," Gailey replied. "We consider everything. We're not so polished in one area that we can stay in that and beat people. We're going to have to consider everything."

In explaining his Wildcat philosophies, however, Gailey raised an important point that would apply not only to the Bills, but also any team interested in running the specialty offense, which features speed motion and a direct shotgun snap to a running back.

"Wildcat is an interesting proposition," Gailey said. "I don't know how long that thing will last if you don't throw out of it. You have to be able to throw out of that formation to make it last because pretty soon they're going to put everybody up there on defense.

"Defensive coaches are catching up slowly but surely. They'll get there. They're a smart group. You have to be able to have some diversity out of it in order to make something like that work."

Another significant problem for Buffalo -- and a major difference from Miami's situation in 2008 -- is they might not have the offensive line to pull it off. While a passing component is important, the Wildcat is based on a nasty ground attack. When the Dolphins relied on it in 2008, they often put tackles Jake Long and Vernon Carey next to each other on an unbalanced line.

Nonetheless, Gailey's comments got me thinking about the backgrounds of Wildcat-style playmakers around the AFC East.

Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch each have thrown one pass in the NFL and it has gone for a touchdown. But the prime candidate to be a Wildcat threat is rookie C.J. Spiller, who possesses a combination of elusiveness and, apparently, an arm. Spiller threw a pair of touchdown passes at Clemson.

The New York Jets have a pair of threats. They've lined up running back LaDainian Tomlinson (seven career NFL touchdown passes) and receiver Brad Smith (played quarterback at Missouri) in Wildcat roles at training camp.

The New England Patriots haven't dabbled much in the Wildcat for a couple of obvious reasons. They don't seem to have a versatile enough running back, and it makes little sense to remove the ball from Tom Brady's hands even for a play or two.

But the Patriots could get tricky with receiver Julian Edelman, an option quarterback at Kent State. He was more dangerous as a runner than he was as a passer, but so is Ronnie Brown. The threat of being able to do both is enough to keep a defense honest, which was Gailey's point.

"You're trying to create some kind of diversion for the defense so that they don't know where the ball is going all the time," Gailey said. "If you can do that, you've got a chance to create more open spaces for the guy that does have the ball, and hopefully they don’t know who has it all the time."