NFL Nation: Julius Peppers
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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2012:
Dream scenario (8-8): Sam Bradford takes every snap on offense for the second time in three seasons as the Rams protect their franchise quarterback with sensible play calling. It's the sixth time a Jeff Fisher-coached team finishes 8-8, but no one is complaining after the Rams' 15-65 run over the previous five seasons. Trusting offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to salvage right tackle Jason Smith becomes one of the surprise success stories of the 2012 season, and a critical one for the Rams' efforts to re-establish Bradford.
Turns out the Rams were not fibbing when they suggested Brian Quick, the receiver they took in the second round, ranked up there with first-rounder Justin Blackmon on their board. The constant threat of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead out of the backfield creates favorable matchups for Quick and the Rams' underrated receivers. Bradford publicly downplays a Week 2 victory over Robert Griffin III and Washington, but it feels good to win at home against the player St. Louis could have selected second overall this year.
Watching Janoris Jenkins score on a fourth-quarter punt return in Patrick Peterson's house improbably stakes the Rams to a 6-5 record, stirring visions of the postseason. It's certainly sweet to finally win within the division again. The Rams lose to San Francisco the following week and ultimately finish the regular season with a respectable defeat at Seattle, but the season is a success by any measure.
Nightmare scenario (3-13): Road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks expose Bradford to significant punishment as Smith and the line struggle to find their bearings. Bradford doesn't want to talk about the ankle injury he aggravated at some point in the season's first month, but it's clearly a factor. Facing Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Julius Peppers, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Cameron Wake and Clay Matthews in the first seven games leaves Bradford limping toward the bye week, his confidence shaken.
Steven Jackson continues to plug away, but we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well for the Rams. The depth at receiver is indeed improved, but Bradford doesn't have any truly dynamic weapons. Quick understandably needs seasoning, but with Blackmon and Arizona's Michael Floyd challenging rookie receiving records, the Rams look bad for trading down. It's tough finding open receivers with Smith struggling at tackle, anyway.
First-round pick Michael Brockers and free-agent addition Kendall Langford upgrade the run defense, but life as an every-down defensive end is tough for Robert Quinn. The veteran outside linebackers signed as stopgaps represent only a minor upgrade from last season. Off-field issues dog Jenkins and the defense fails to meet expectations. Critics conveniently blame Gregg Williams' suspension, but the problems are more complex than that.
The Rams head into the offseason with another high draft choice, one they'll almost certainly have to invest in a playmaker of some sort.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2012:
Dream scenario (8-8): Sam Bradford takes every snap on offense for the second time in three seasons as the Rams protect their franchise quarterback with sensible play calling. It's the sixth time a Jeff Fisher-coached team finishes 8-8, but no one is complaining after the Rams' 15-65 run over the previous five seasons. Trusting offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to salvage right tackle Jason Smith becomes one of the surprise success stories of the 2012 season, and a critical one for the Rams' efforts to re-establish Bradford.
Turns out the Rams were not fibbing when they suggested Brian Quick, the receiver they took in the second round, ranked up there with first-rounder Justin Blackmon on their board. The constant threat of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead out of the backfield creates favorable matchups for Quick and the Rams' underrated receivers. Bradford publicly downplays a Week 2 victory over Robert Griffin III and Washington, but it feels good to win at home against the player St. Louis could have selected second overall this year.
Watching Janoris Jenkins score on a fourth-quarter punt return in Patrick Peterson's house improbably stakes the Rams to a 6-5 record, stirring visions of the postseason. It's certainly sweet to finally win within the division again. The Rams lose to San Francisco the following week and ultimately finish the regular season with a respectable defeat at Seattle, but the season is a success by any measure.
Nightmare scenario (3-13): Road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks expose Bradford to significant punishment as Smith and the line struggle to find their bearings. Bradford doesn't want to talk about the ankle injury he aggravated at some point in the season's first month, but it's clearly a factor. Facing Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Julius Peppers, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Cameron Wake and Clay Matthews in the first seven games leaves Bradford limping toward the bye week, his confidence shaken.
Steven Jackson continues to plug away, but we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well for the Rams. The depth at receiver is indeed improved, but Bradford doesn't have any truly dynamic weapons. Quick understandably needs seasoning, but with Blackmon and Arizona's Michael Floyd challenging rookie receiving records, the Rams look bad for trading down. It's tough finding open receivers with Smith struggling at tackle, anyway.
First-round pick Michael Brockers and free-agent addition Kendall Langford upgrade the run defense, but life as an every-down defensive end is tough for Robert Quinn. The veteran outside linebackers signed as stopgaps represent only a minor upgrade from last season. Off-field issues dog Jenkins and the defense fails to meet expectations. Critics conveniently blame Gregg Williams' suspension, but the problems are more complex than that.
The Rams head into the offseason with another high draft choice, one they'll almost certainly have to invest in a playmaker of some sort.
A committee of ESPN experts -- including Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper, Gary Horton, Matt Williamson -- assembled this offseason to create a unique version of our traditional Power Rankings.
Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season
. The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.
The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:
Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:
1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment: The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.
6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment: Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of their key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.
17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment: Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.
31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment: Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.
Naturally, NFC North teams are featured prominently in what amounts to a three-year projection of Power Rankings for the 2015 season
. The Green Bay Packers received the top spot as the team best equipped to compete three years from now, while the Detroit Lions were not far behind at No. 6.
The file requires an Insider subscription to read in full, but I can pass along where our four teams ranked and also a glimpse at the methodology used. Here is how the committee evaluated each team and the degree of impact each category had:
- Roster (32.5 percent of total score): Players under 30 emphasized
- Coaching (20 percent): Capability and stability of current staff
- Quarterback (17.5 percent): Where quarterback play would be in three years
- Draft (15 percent): Based on team's 2012 class and how many picks available in next three years.
- Front office (15 percent): Ability to manage roster and market's attraction to free agents.
Now on to the NFC North rankings with comments from me:
1. Green Bay Packers
Seifert comment: The presence of a 28-year-old MVP quarterback and one of the NFL's top general manager-coach combinations puts the Packers on an ideal long-term path.
6. Detroit Lions
Seifert comment: Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 5,000-yard season before his 24th birthday. That's a nice start. General manager Martin Mayhew has elevated the team's talent level every season of his tenure and most of their key players -- Stafford, receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Stephen Tulloch -- are under 30.
17. Chicago Bears
Seifert comment: Jay Cutler is a legitimate franchise quarterback, but the best players on the Bears' defense are all over 30. That list includes defensive end Julius Peppers, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and cornerback Charles Tillman.
31. Minnesota Vikings
Seifert comment: Questions about quarterback Christian Ponder's long-term prospects made it difficult for the committee to project future success. There are also concerns about a lack of young impact players on defense. Defensive end Jared Allen is 30 and linebacker Chad Greenway is 29.
» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chicago Bears and why.
For months, the Chicago Bears have systematically picked off their roster holes, large and small. They traded for receiver Brandon Marshall, giving quarterback Jay Cutler his long-sought "big target." They signed backups at quarterback (Jason Campbell) and running back (Michael Bush), drafted a pass-rusher (Shea McClellin) to complement Julius Peppers, and added another big receiver in rookie Alshon Jeffery.
But rather than address two years of uneven play along their offensive line with additional personnel upgrades, the Bears instead placed their faith in new offensive coordinator Mike Tice to handle that job. The Bears are confident that Tice's background as an offensive line coach will ensure a scheme that offers his blockers plenty of help and limits the difficulty of the position they find themselves under.
In the end, however, football is about the skills of the players more than it is the schemes of the coaches. If Tice can't help the Bears' incumbent linemen play at a winning level, then the rest of the Bears' upgrades won't matter for much. That's an awful lot of pressure to put on one coach.
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Chicago Bears and why.
For months, the Chicago Bears have systematically picked off their roster holes, large and small. They traded for receiver Brandon Marshall, giving quarterback Jay Cutler his long-sought "big target." They signed backups at quarterback (Jason Campbell) and running back (Michael Bush), drafted a pass-rusher (Shea McClellin) to complement Julius Peppers, and added another big receiver in rookie Alshon Jeffery.
But rather than address two years of uneven play along their offensive line with additional personnel upgrades, the Bears instead placed their faith in new offensive coordinator Mike Tice to handle that job. The Bears are confident that Tice's background as an offensive line coach will ensure a scheme that offers his blockers plenty of help and limits the difficulty of the position they find themselves under.
In the end, however, football is about the skills of the players more than it is the schemes of the coaches. If Tice can't help the Bears' incumbent linemen play at a winning level, then the rest of the Bears' upgrades won't matter for much. That's an awful lot of pressure to put on one coach.
The Carolina Panthers are having a neighbor in for a visit Monday.
North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples reportedly is having his pre-draft visit with the team Monday. Although defensive tackles Dontari Poe and Devon Still have been commonly linked to the Panthers at the No. 9 spot, don’t rule out Coples as a possibility.
Defensive end might not seem like a huge priority for the Panthers, but coach Ron Rivera wants to make his defense as explosive as possible. Coples has the tools to be a disruptive pass-rusher and that would only help Carolina’s entire defense.
The knock you see in draft reports on Coples is that he doesn’t show up on every play. Gee, does that sound familiar to Carolina fans?
That was the exact same knock that followed Julius Peppers, another North Carolina defensive end, when he entered the league in 2002. Peppers quickly shed that label as he produced 12 sacks as a rookie. Peppers was a little streaky at times, but he produced double-digit sacks in six of his eight seasons in Carolina and offenses always had to account for him.
If the Panthers think Coples can be anything like Peppers, they have to at least consider drafting him.
North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples reportedly is having his pre-draft visit with the team Monday. Although defensive tackles Dontari Poe and Devon Still have been commonly linked to the Panthers at the No. 9 spot, don’t rule out Coples as a possibility.
Defensive end might not seem like a huge priority for the Panthers, but coach Ron Rivera wants to make his defense as explosive as possible. Coples has the tools to be a disruptive pass-rusher and that would only help Carolina’s entire defense.
The knock you see in draft reports on Coples is that he doesn’t show up on every play. Gee, does that sound familiar to Carolina fans?
That was the exact same knock that followed Julius Peppers, another North Carolina defensive end, when he entered the league in 2002. Peppers quickly shed that label as he produced 12 sacks as a rookie. Peppers was a little streaky at times, but he produced double-digit sacks in six of his eight seasons in Carolina and offenses always had to account for him.
If the Panthers think Coples can be anything like Peppers, they have to at least consider drafting him.
Have at It: The Bears and Mario Williams
March, 12, 2012
Mar 12
3:01
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
The question has arisen in our SportsNation chats, in the mailbag, on Twitter and Facebook. And each time you've asked if the Chicago Bears would pursue free agent defensive end Mario Williams, my answer has been the same. It's hard to imagine the Bears committing to a sky-high priced defensive end when they already have defensive end Julius Peppers signed to a deal that calls for cap numbers increasing from $12.4 million this season to $19.7 million in 2015.
There's nothing wrong with having two elite defensive ends, even if they account for upwards of 30 percent of your total cap space, as a Peppers-Williams pairing might. But the Bears would appear to have too many other needs -- receiver tops among them -- to afford that luxury. But in this reasoned column, Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune considers the issue from another perspective.
The Bears will have between $20 million and $25 million in cap space to work with, but I'm not ready to change my mind yet on how they should use it. I'm also not convinced that new general manager Phil Emery will be a front-line player on the free agent market.
But I reserve the right to change my mind, and as a result your thoughts are welcome in a very special offseason edition of Have at It. Let me know if you would be in favor of the Bears pursuing and signing Williams, even at the expense of other positions on their roster, and we'll circle back on the issue Tuesday morning while we're killing time and waiting for the 4 p.m. ET start of free agency. Have at It.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Tom DiPaceMario Williams could form a fearsome pass-rushing tandem with Julius Peppers, if the Bears were to land the free agent.
AP Photo/Tom DiPaceMario Williams could form a fearsome pass-rushing tandem with Julius Peppers, if the Bears were to land the free agent.Pompei: "It's true the Bears would have an inordinate investment in their defensive ends if they signed Williams. But collecting pass-rushers didn't hurt the Super Bowl champion Giants. The Lions have quite a group, too. As the subjects of the A&E series "Hoarders" might attest, you can't have too much of a good thing -- especially pass-rushers, and especially given the defensive and team philosophies the Bears subscribe to. A defensive end's value is much greater than that of a wide receiver to the Bears. It's true a great quarterback can make his receivers better. On the other side of the ball, it's the end who makes his teammates better. Many teams have won big without star receivers. Few have won without a pass rush that keeps quarterbacks up at night and down during games."
The Bears will have between $20 million and $25 million in cap space to work with, but I'm not ready to change my mind yet on how they should use it. I'm also not convinced that new general manager Phil Emery will be a front-line player on the free agent market.
But I reserve the right to change my mind, and as a result your thoughts are welcome in a very special offseason edition of Have at It. Let me know if you would be in favor of the Bears pursuing and signing Williams, even at the expense of other positions on their roster, and we'll circle back on the issue Tuesday morning while we're killing time and waiting for the 4 p.m. ET start of free agency. Have at It.
» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET
Chicago Bears
Key free agents: Tight end Kellen Davis, running back Matt Forte (franchise), cornerback Corey Graham, quarterback Caleb Hanie, defensive end Israel Idonije, cornerback Tim Jennings, quarterback Josh McCown, safety Brandon Meriweather and receiver Roy Williams.
Where they stand: The Bears will have the most salary-cap space among NFC North teams, upwards of $30 million, and have plenty of potential uses for it. Quarterback Jay Cutler needs more targets in the downfield passing game, whether it's at the receiver or tight end position. And new general manager Phil Emery must start restocking a defense led by four players more than 30 years old: Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Charles Tillman.
What to expect: It's widely believed the Bears will be in the running for free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson. But Jackson's price tag could be steep and no one knows if Emery will prove to be a big spender. It seems likely he will re-sign Davis, and Emery should also save some of his cap space to extend Forte's contract. Secondary receiver targets could include Marques Colston. Bears fans are hoping the team will pursue defensive end Mario Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bears budgeting for Williams two years after breaking their bank on Peppers.
Detroit Lions
Key free agents: Defensive end Cliff Avril (franchise), left tackle Jeff Backus, safety Chris Harris, quarterback Shaun Hill, linebacker DeAndre Levy (restricted), running back Maurice Morris, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Drew Stanton, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.
Where they stand: The Lions are tight against the salary cap after franchising Avril and aren't likely to be big spenders on the free-agent market. They could relieve the situation by reaching long-term agreements with Avril and/or receiver Calvin Johnson, who has a $22 million cap figure for 2012. Tulloch made a big impact last season after signing a one-year deal, but so far the Lions' attention has turned elsewhere.
What to expect: The Lions' best-case scenario is to keep their 2011 core together without mortgaging their future relative to the salary cap. That would mean getting Tulloch re-signed to preserve the linebacker group they upgraded last season by signing him and veteran Justin Durant, moves that allowed Levy to play on the outside. Hill seems likely to re-sign as Matthew Stafford's backup, while Stanton might test the free-agent waters to see if he has a chance to do better than third on a team's depth chart.
Green Bay Packers
Key free agents: Cornerback Jarrett Bush, quarterback Matt Flynn, running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells.
Where they stand: The Packers took care of a big challenge by signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract last month. They will let Flynn depart for a possible starting job elsewhere and it appears Grant will test the free-agent market. Discussions with Wells haven't led to an agreement, but the Packers often go to the final moments before reaching a deal. There are no obvious internal replacements for Wells, making his return a priority.
What to expect: The Packers will have some flexibility with the salary cap, but general manager Ted Thompson's aversion to veteran free agency is well known. It's been three years since he signed a veteran unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The Packers have needs at defensive line, outside linebacker and possibly at center if Wells leaves. But let's put it this way: Thompson's strong preference is to find depth and future replacements in the draft, not on other teams' rosters.
Minnesota Vikings
Key free agents: Safety Husain Abdullah, receiver Devin Aromashodu, receiver Greg Camarillo, defensive lineman Fred Evans, defensive lineman Letroy Guion, linebacker E.J. Henderson, linebacker Erin Henderson, safety Tyrell Johnson, quarterback Sage Rosenfels, cornerback Benny Sapp and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.
Where they stand: The Vikings seem poised for a major roster overhaul in their first offseason since Rick Spielman was promoted to general manager. Players like Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, Camarillo and Johnson all seem poised to move on. There aren't many positions on the team that appear secure.
What to expect: If the Vikings don't plan to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall next month, the first clue will be if they pursue a free-agent left tackle. That seems unlikely. But they'll need to combine their draft with at least a few veteran free agents if they intend to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. Cornerback could be a point of focus, where Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan are among those available. Another could be receiver. The Vikings had major interest in Jackson two years ago.
Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET
Chicago Bears
Key free agents: Tight end Kellen Davis, running back Matt Forte (franchise), cornerback Corey Graham, quarterback Caleb Hanie, defensive end Israel Idonije, cornerback Tim Jennings, quarterback Josh McCown, safety Brandon Meriweather and receiver Roy Williams.
Where they stand: The Bears will have the most salary-cap space among NFC North teams, upwards of $30 million, and have plenty of potential uses for it. Quarterback Jay Cutler needs more targets in the downfield passing game, whether it's at the receiver or tight end position. And new general manager Phil Emery must start restocking a defense led by four players more than 30 years old: Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Charles Tillman.
What to expect: It's widely believed the Bears will be in the running for free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson. But Jackson's price tag could be steep and no one knows if Emery will prove to be a big spender. It seems likely he will re-sign Davis, and Emery should also save some of his cap space to extend Forte's contract. Secondary receiver targets could include Marques Colston. Bears fans are hoping the team will pursue defensive end Mario Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bears budgeting for Williams two years after breaking their bank on Peppers.
Detroit Lions
Key free agents: Defensive end Cliff Avril (franchise), left tackle Jeff Backus, safety Chris Harris, quarterback Shaun Hill, linebacker DeAndre Levy (restricted), running back Maurice Morris, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Drew Stanton, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.
Where they stand: The Lions are tight against the salary cap after franchising Avril and aren't likely to be big spenders on the free-agent market. They could relieve the situation by reaching long-term agreements with Avril and/or receiver Calvin Johnson, who has a $22 million cap figure for 2012. Tulloch made a big impact last season after signing a one-year deal, but so far the Lions' attention has turned elsewhere.
What to expect: The Lions' best-case scenario is to keep their 2011 core together without mortgaging their future relative to the salary cap. That would mean getting Tulloch re-signed to preserve the linebacker group they upgraded last season by signing him and veteran Justin Durant, moves that allowed Levy to play on the outside. Hill seems likely to re-sign as Matthew Stafford's backup, while Stanton might test the free-agent waters to see if he has a chance to do better than third on a team's depth chart.
Green Bay Packers
Key free agents: Cornerback Jarrett Bush, quarterback Matt Flynn, running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells.
Where they stand: The Packers took care of a big challenge by signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract last month. They will let Flynn depart for a possible starting job elsewhere and it appears Grant will test the free-agent market. Discussions with Wells haven't led to an agreement, but the Packers often go to the final moments before reaching a deal. There are no obvious internal replacements for Wells, making his return a priority.
What to expect: The Packers will have some flexibility with the salary cap, but general manager Ted Thompson's aversion to veteran free agency is well known. It's been three years since he signed a veteran unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The Packers have needs at defensive line, outside linebacker and possibly at center if Wells leaves. But let's put it this way: Thompson's strong preference is to find depth and future replacements in the draft, not on other teams' rosters.
Minnesota Vikings
Key free agents: Safety Husain Abdullah, receiver Devin Aromashodu, receiver Greg Camarillo, defensive lineman Fred Evans, defensive lineman Letroy Guion, linebacker E.J. Henderson, linebacker Erin Henderson, safety Tyrell Johnson, quarterback Sage Rosenfels, cornerback Benny Sapp and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.
Where they stand: The Vikings seem poised for a major roster overhaul in their first offseason since Rick Spielman was promoted to general manager. Players like Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, Camarillo and Johnson all seem poised to move on. There aren't many positions on the team that appear secure.
What to expect: If the Vikings don't plan to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall next month, the first clue will be if they pursue a free-agent left tackle. That seems unlikely. But they'll need to combine their draft with at least a few veteran free agents if they intend to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. Cornerback could be a point of focus, where Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan are among those available. Another could be receiver. The Vikings had major interest in Jackson two years ago.
Finally: Your 2011 All-NFC North team
February, 7, 2012
Feb 7
4:30
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Getty ImagesCalvin Johnson, left, and Aaron Rodgers were easy picks for the All-NFC North team.Via Twitter, @jpberthiaume asked: "Do people really care about these 'teams?'" I guess it's a fair point. I doubt few, if any, of the players listed in the chart wrote a fifth-grade essay about their plans to one day make the All-NFC North team on ESPN.com, even if it was only because the NFC North hadn't yet been formed in those days and ESPN.com was operating out of a Bristol-based closet.
So I'll let you be the judge. This is annually a fun exercise, even if it doesn't lead to a deep understanding of the human condition or even reveal any breakthroughs about the just-completed season. If nothing else, it offers us a blank template to recognize the best-performing players in the division without the hindrance of the politics and reputation.
Some notes on some of the tight decisions, for which I seriously received input from multiple angles:
- One of the fiercest debates came at wide receiver. Everyone agreed that the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson deserved one spot, but there was a split about the other two. Did the Green Bay Packers' Greg Jennings, who missed three games because of a knee injury, deserve an automatic bid? And if he did, should the Packers' Jordy Nelson or the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin get the third spot? I thought Jennings' 67 receptions, 949 yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games merited a spot. And ultimately I chose Nelson over Harvin. I realize Harvin caught 87 passes in a punchless offense and added 345 rushing yards to his total, but in the end I couldn't overlook a player who scored more touchdowns (15) than all but four players in the NFL this season. Plus, as Hatterbot pointed out: "Rushing yards don't count in the WR category."
- I went with the Lions' Rob Sims at left guard in part on the advice of John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who noted that Sims was the only NFC North left guard to play the position for 16 games this season. Sims also had the best pass-sack ratio (19.7 passes per sack) of the group, based on video study.
- There is no doubt that the Lions' Brandon Pettigrew (83 catches) had a more productive season then the Packers' Jermichael Finley (55). But the Lions often used Pettigrew as a substitute for their punchless running game, and that's why his per-catch average of 9.4 yards was lower than any other tight end with at least 30 catches. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the average pass to Pettigrew this season traveled 6.5 yards in the air. The average pass to Finley traveled 11.4 yards. Finley caught five passes of at least 30 yards. Pettigrew's longest was 27. Both players had their share of drops, combining for a total of 15, but I thought Finley made a bigger impact on his catches than Pettigrew did.
- I really debated the Bears' Julius Peppers and the Lions' Cliff Avril at defensive end. Avril (11.5) had a half-sack more than Peppers (11) and forced twice as many fumbles. But one of the advantages we have on this team is investigating beyond the conventional numbers. Our friends at Pro Football Focus (PFF) credited Peppers with 53 quarterback pressures, the second-highest total in the NFL. Avril ranked No. 8 with 37, but in a close race, I chose the maximum mumber of plays impacted over Avril's slight edge in "playmaking" statistics.
- I used a similar approach in choosing the Vikings' Kevin Williams and the Lions' Ndamukong Suh as my defensive tackles. It's true that the Bears' Henry Melton led the NFC North's defensive tackles with seven pressures, but PFF had Suh with 27 quarterback pressures, an NFL high for an interior lineman. Williams tied for No. 3 with 25. Melton wasn't that far behind at 23, but I also took into account that the Bears nearly benched him for inconsistency at one point in the season. (Coach Lovie Smith in November: "He hasn't showed up as much. Whether teams have adjusted to him or whatever, we need to get more production from him because he's capable of it." Meanwhile, I thought Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji took a step backward in 2011. PFF credited him with only 10 stops (the cumulative number of plays made that constitute an offensive failure) in 842 snaps.
- If you want to say I chickened out at linebacker, go ahead. I originally left open the middle and one of the outside spots, but in the end I went with our division standbys: Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. For starters, Briggs was one of six non-offensive linemen to play 100 percent of his team's snaps in the NFL this season. There's something to be said for being available to your team. And while I do think that the Packers' Desmond Bishop and the Lions' Stephen Tulloch had good seasons, I couldn't find a statistic or an opinion that convinced me they were better than Urlacher. Someday, there will be turnover among NFC North linebackers. But it didn't happen this season.
- Safety play was poor throughout the NFC North, so I'm not at all ashamed to have chosen a third cornerback to replace one of the safeties on this team. It came down to the Lions' Chris Houston and the Packers' Tramon Williams. Both had their ups and downs in coverage. Houston had five interceptions and two touchdowns in 14 games, while Williams had four interceptions and one touchdown in 15 games. In the end, I chose Williams because I think it was pretty clear he was pushing through a really limiting shoulder injury for much of the first half of the season.
- I chose the Packers' specialists, kicker Mason Crosby and punter Tim Masthay. Crosby converted 24 of 28 kicks, including a 58-yarder, and ranked third in the NFL with 49 touchbacks. Masthay downed a division-high 23 punts inside the 20-yard line despite a division-low 55 punts.
- I mistakenly left off a coverage specialist from our original post. There should be no debating that the Bears' Corey Graham deserves that spot.
- Go ahead. Rip away....
Bears: Phil Emery's most important priority
February, 2, 2012
Feb 2
1:15
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Our latest discussion with Jeff Dickerson on "Chicago's GameNight" 
at ESPN 1000 generated an interesting question: What should be the top priority for new Chicago Bears general manager Phil Emery?
I broke my answer into two parts, based on the short and long terms. Immediately, Emery needs to upgrade a receiving corps after an ineffective attempt to bolster last season's group with free agents Roy Williams and Sam Hurd. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice will place a heavy emphasis on the power running game, but he also wants to throw the ball downfield and needs bigger and better targets to do that.
In the long term, however, Emery needs to address a defense built around four Pro Bowl players who are all on the wrong side of 30.
The issue isn't so much that defensive end Julius Peppers, cornerback Charles Tillman and linebackers Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are aging. All four keep themselves in excellent physical condition and played at a high level in 2011.
More worrisome is that none of the four have a potential heir on the roster. As a result, Peppers, Briggs, Urlacher and Tillman were all among the 2011 NFL leaders in playing time at their positions. We've already noted that Briggs played every defensive snap this season. The rest of the numbers are in the chart.
Urlacher will turn 34 in May. Peppers just turned 32, Briggs will be 32 in November and Tillman turns 31 later this month. It's important to note that none of them need to be replaced in 2012, at least based on their 2011 performances. But restocking so many key positions is a multiple-year project that hasn't begun.
The job of a general manger is to provide a steady infusion of talent to ensure an orderly transition at key positions, whenever possible. Emery needs to jump-start that process for the Bears' defense. It might not be time to find the next Brian Urlacher or Lance Briggs, but the Bears need to at least start thinking about it.
at ESPN 1000 generated an interesting question: What should be the top priority for new Chicago Bears general manager Phil Emery?
I broke my answer into two parts, based on the short and long terms. Immediately, Emery needs to upgrade a receiving corps after an ineffective attempt to bolster last season's group with free agents Roy Williams and Sam Hurd. New offensive coordinator Mike Tice will place a heavy emphasis on the power running game, but he also wants to throw the ball downfield and needs bigger and better targets to do that.
In the long term, however, Emery needs to address a defense built around four Pro Bowl players who are all on the wrong side of 30.
The issue isn't so much that defensive end Julius Peppers, cornerback Charles Tillman and linebackers Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are aging. All four keep themselves in excellent physical condition and played at a high level in 2011.
More worrisome is that none of the four have a potential heir on the roster. As a result, Peppers, Briggs, Urlacher and Tillman were all among the 2011 NFL leaders in playing time at their positions. We've already noted that Briggs played every defensive snap this season. The rest of the numbers are in the chart.
Urlacher will turn 34 in May. Peppers just turned 32, Briggs will be 32 in November and Tillman turns 31 later this month. It's important to note that none of them need to be replaced in 2012, at least based on their 2011 performances. But restocking so many key positions is a multiple-year project that hasn't begun.
The job of a general manger is to provide a steady infusion of talent to ensure an orderly transition at key positions, whenever possible. Emery needs to jump-start that process for the Bears' defense. It might not be time to find the next Brian Urlacher or Lance Briggs, but the Bears need to at least start thinking about it.
» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
FALLING
1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.
2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.
3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.
RISING
1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.
2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.
3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.
FALLING
1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.
2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.
3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.
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Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesBrandon Pettigrew has been a productive weapon for the Lions this season.
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesBrandon Pettigrew has been a productive weapon for the Lions this season.1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.
2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.
3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- A few thoughts from a pretty quick first half at Lambeau Field:
- The Chicago Bears are doing what most teams would like to do against the Green Bay Packers: Control the ball via the running game and keep the Packers offense off the field. The Bears have rushed for 126 yards, including 89 by Kahlil Bell, and have 207 total yards. But they haven't followed through on the second part of that approach. They have only one field goal to show for their efforts because Robbie Gould missed a 49-yarder and Packers linebacker Clay Matthews stopped another drive with an interception.
- I don't think anyone could argue with the performance of Bears quarterback Josh McCown, who has completed 6 of 9 passes. The Bears have run 24 times and are obviously going to limit McCown's exposure, but I wouldn't even blame him for the interception. Matthews sniffed out a screen and made a great individual play.
- Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke the Packers' single-season record for passing yards in a season during the second quarter. Lynn Dickey held the record previously at 4,458 yards. Rodgers appeared to injure his right hand in a collision with Bears defensive end Julius Peppers, but he has completed 14 of 19 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns.
- Did the Lambeau Field crowd boo tight end Jermichael Finley when he was unable to come up with a short catch on the right sideline? Or were they booing the officials' call? I wasn't sure. Finley caught three passes in the Packers' opening drive, including a 2-yard touchdown, but he has also missed on a couple of catchable passes as well.
- I'm not sure why the Bears are using Devin Hester as a returner. His sprained ankle is obviously limiting him and on a few plays he seemed unable to run laterally. That's a recipe for further injury.
- Although the Packers have both starting inside linebackers back on the field, it's worth noting the Packers' run defense is not at full strength. Ryan Pickett still has not been cleared to play after suffering a concussion two weeks ago.
Thoughts on the Seattle Seahawks during their 38-14 victory over the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Week 15:
What it means: The Seahawks kept themselves alive in the NFC playoff picture through a mix of big-play defense and special teams, backed by continued efficient play from quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. The team has matched its victory total from last season and can finish with a winning record by beating San Francisco (home) and Arizona (road) in the final two weeks.
What I liked: Strong safety Kam Chancellor forced an early turnover. Also in the first half, free safety Earl Thomas picked off a pass deep in Seahawks territory. Defensive tackle Red Bryant scored on an interception return set up by K.J. Wright's quarterback pressure. Cornerback Brandon Browner scored on an interception return. Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown for the 10th consecutive game in which he has played. Lynch ran more effectively than the raw stats indicated. His average suffered from a 2-yard scoring run and some unfortunate early play calling in the red zone. Jon Ryan and the punt coverage team pinned the Bears deep in their own territory to give Seattle an early edge in field position. Jackson got hot early in the second half, finding Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu for long gains, setting up another Lynch TD, this one to tie the game. Jackson completed 19 of 31 passes for 227 yards, one touchdown and a 94.4 NFL passer rating.
What I didn't like: The Seahawks, by pitching the ball outside to Leon Washington instead of hammering straight ahead with Lynch, conceded the conventional running game on their first possession in the red zone. Seattle also left its backup left tackle, Paul McQuistan, alone against Bears defensive end Julius Peppers on a third-and-13 play from deep in Seattle territory. That unsurprisingly led to a sack, forced fumble and Bears touchdown to erase a 7-0 Seahawks lead. Center Max Unger, though enjoying a strong season overall, remained inconsistent with his shotgun snap placement. He was too high against St. Louis last week and too low this week, resulting in fumbled snaps both times.
What's next: The Seahawks are home against the 49ers in Week 16.
What it means: The Seahawks kept themselves alive in the NFC playoff picture through a mix of big-play defense and special teams, backed by continued efficient play from quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. The team has matched its victory total from last season and can finish with a winning record by beating San Francisco (home) and Arizona (road) in the final two weeks.
What I liked: Strong safety Kam Chancellor forced an early turnover. Also in the first half, free safety Earl Thomas picked off a pass deep in Seahawks territory. Defensive tackle Red Bryant scored on an interception return set up by K.J. Wright's quarterback pressure. Cornerback Brandon Browner scored on an interception return. Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown for the 10th consecutive game in which he has played. Lynch ran more effectively than the raw stats indicated. His average suffered from a 2-yard scoring run and some unfortunate early play calling in the red zone. Jon Ryan and the punt coverage team pinned the Bears deep in their own territory to give Seattle an early edge in field position. Jackson got hot early in the second half, finding Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu for long gains, setting up another Lynch TD, this one to tie the game. Jackson completed 19 of 31 passes for 227 yards, one touchdown and a 94.4 NFL passer rating.
What I didn't like: The Seahawks, by pitching the ball outside to Leon Washington instead of hammering straight ahead with Lynch, conceded the conventional running game on their first possession in the red zone. Seattle also left its backup left tackle, Paul McQuistan, alone against Bears defensive end Julius Peppers on a third-and-13 play from deep in Seattle territory. That unsurprisingly led to a sack, forced fumble and Bears touchdown to erase a 7-0 Seahawks lead. Center Max Unger, though enjoying a strong season overall, remained inconsistent with his shotgun snap placement. He was too high against St. Louis last week and too low this week, resulting in fumbled snaps both times.
What's next: The Seahawks are home against the 49ers in Week 16.
» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 15:
Forget about running the ball: The San Francisco 49ers own the NFL's longest ongoing streak of games without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher. The streak dates to Ryan Grant's 129-yard game for Green Bay in Week 11 of the 2009 season. The 49ers' Week 15 opponent, Pittsburgh, hasn't allowed very many, either. Baltimore's Ray Rice (twice) and Houston's Arian Foster are the only players to rush for 100-plus yards against the Steelers since the 49ers' streak began. We should not expect much from Frank Gore and Rashard Mendenhall on Monday night, in other words.
Keep an eye on that fourth quarter: The 49ers are allowing only 14 points per game. That would be the second-lowest average allowed in franchise history if sustained over the season. Opponents have scored 42.3 percent of their points against the 49ers in fourth quarters, however. The 49ers have allowed 27 fourth-quarter points in their three defeats this season. Their past eight opponents have scored only 104 points, or 13 per game, but they scored half of them in fourth quarters. Can the 49ers finish against the Steelers?
Riding the Marshawn Lynch train: Lynch rushed for 573 yards in 12 games with the Seattle Seahawks last season. He has 969 yards in 12 games this season. While Lynch managed only 44 yards on 17 carries against Chicago in his Seahawks debut last season, his hard-nosed running gave Seattle a needed edge in an upset victory. The way Seattle won that game -- with tough defense, a big back and an efficient quarterback -- showed how coach Pete Carroll envisioned winning games. Can the Seahawks do it again?
Nothing comes easy: The Arizona Cardinals are tied with Denver for the most games decided by seven or fewer points this season (10). Fifteen total point separated Arizona from its opponents in the four games won with John Skelton as the Cardinals' primary quarterback. The opponent this week, Cleveland, has played close games against the Cardinals' NFC West rivals. The Browns beat Seattle by three (6-3), lost to St. Louis by one (13-12) and played the 49ers relatively close in San Francisco (20-10). The Browns' likely starting quarterback, Seneca Wallace, started four games last season. Two were decided by a total of four points.
Shuffling lines: The St. Louis Rams head into their game against Cincinnati having started nine players on their offensive line, tied for second-most in the NFL this season. The Rams and Seahawks are the only teams in the league without any offensive linemen starting all games at the same position, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Seattle has weathered the turnover fairly well, but facing the Bears' Julius Peppers without injured left tackle Russell Okung could be problematic.
Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 15:
Forget about running the ball: The San Francisco 49ers own the NFL's longest ongoing streak of games without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher. The streak dates to Ryan Grant's 129-yard game for Green Bay in Week 11 of the 2009 season. The 49ers' Week 15 opponent, Pittsburgh, hasn't allowed very many, either. Baltimore's Ray Rice (twice) and Houston's Arian Foster are the only players to rush for 100-plus yards against the Steelers since the 49ers' streak began. We should not expect much from Frank Gore and Rashard Mendenhall on Monday night, in other words.
Keep an eye on that fourth quarter: The 49ers are allowing only 14 points per game. That would be the second-lowest average allowed in franchise history if sustained over the season. Opponents have scored 42.3 percent of their points against the 49ers in fourth quarters, however. The 49ers have allowed 27 fourth-quarter points in their three defeats this season. Their past eight opponents have scored only 104 points, or 13 per game, but they scored half of them in fourth quarters. Can the 49ers finish against the Steelers?
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Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PresswireSeahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has 969 rushing yards in 12 games this season.
Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PresswireSeahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has 969 rushing yards in 12 games this season.Nothing comes easy: The Arizona Cardinals are tied with Denver for the most games decided by seven or fewer points this season (10). Fifteen total point separated Arizona from its opponents in the four games won with John Skelton as the Cardinals' primary quarterback. The opponent this week, Cleveland, has played close games against the Cardinals' NFC West rivals. The Browns beat Seattle by three (6-3), lost to St. Louis by one (13-12) and played the 49ers relatively close in San Francisco (20-10). The Browns' likely starting quarterback, Seneca Wallace, started four games last season. Two were decided by a total of four points.
Shuffling lines: The St. Louis Rams head into their game against Cincinnati having started nine players on their offensive line, tied for second-most in the NFL this season. The Rams and Seahawks are the only teams in the league without any offensive linemen starting all games at the same position, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Seattle has weathered the turnover fairly well, but facing the Bears' Julius Peppers without injured left tackle Russell Okung could be problematic.
Another stunning Tebowmania chapter
December, 11, 2011
12/11/11
11:30
PM ET
By
Bill Williamson | ESPN.com
Ron Chenoy/US PRESSWIRETim Tebow guided the Denver Broncos to another dramatic victory.DENVER -- Sorry Charles Barkley, but this Tim Tebow thing isn’t going anywhere.
For those of you who are like Barkley and are burned out by Tebowmania, we send our deepest regrets. It has reached a new level. Yeah, we know Tebowmania trends upward weekly. That’s why it’s rivaling the 13-0 Green Bay Packers as the story of the NFL season.
And I’m getting the feeling Tebowmania may stick around for the next, oh, 10 to 12 years. After watching Tebow and the Denver Broncos score 13 points after being shut out for the first 57 minutes, 45 seconds of the game Sunday to beat the Chicago Bears 13-10 in overtime, how can anyone honestly say Tebow is nothing more than a temporary fix?
Hours after ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported that Denver will likely decide to move forward with Tebow as its quarterback in 2012 if he leads it into the playoffs, the Tebow train kept on moving. If we are ranking Tebow's victories, Sunday’s may have been the most stunning. But that’s like picking your favorite Rolling Stones song. There are so many classics to choose from.
The victory -- combined with a 46-16 Oakland loss at Green Bay -- gave Denver sole possession of first place in the AFC West at 8-5. The Broncos lead Oakland by one game with three games to go. Denver also owns the current tiebreaker over the Raiders. At this point, it looks like Denver may be headed to the postseason for the first time in six years either as a division winner or wild-card entry. If Denver beats Kansas City at home in Week 17, the Raiders will have to finish with a better record than the Broncos to win the division because of tiebreaker reasons.
Denver is 7-1 with Tebow as its starter and has won six straight games. It is 3-0 in overtime with Tebow as its quarterback and it has won five games late with Tebow playing. Denver has trailed in the fourth quarter in all of its past four games.
Sunday, though, was incredible.
The Bears led 10-0 until Denver scored 10 points in two frenzied drives in the final 2:15 of regulation and then won it with 8:40 remaining in overtime on a 51-yard field goal by Matt Prater.
Denver punted eight times before it scored. Tebow, who was the victim of six dropped passes in the first three quarters, completed three passes (all in the first quarter) before the fourth quarter. He had 18 of his 21 completions in the fourth quarter and overtime. He was 7-of-7 on pass attempts on the Broncos’ touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Tebow was 4-for-4 with a touchdown pass when he threw outside of the pocket in the fourth quarter and overtime Sunday. He was 3-of-7 with an interception prior to the fourth quarter.
“His eyes light up when the pressure is on,” Denver receiver Eric Decker said of Tebow.
Still, several members of the Chicago defense were not overly impressed by Tebow, who completed 21 of 40 passes for 236 yards. He had 49 yards rushing on 12 attempts.
“He’s a good running back,” said Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher when asked his thoughts on Tebow after the game. Typically, Tebow was not bothered by the shot. “Coming from a really good player, that means a lot,” the unflappable Tebow said.
Added Chicago defensive end Julius Peppers: “It wasn’t anything special that he did.”
Despite those less-than-stellar assessments of Tebow, there is no doubt Denver is buying into Tebow.
“He’s huge,” Broncos coach John Fox said of his young quarterback.
Mortensen’s report makes complete sense. There is little chance Denver can dump what it has going with Tebow. First of all, if Denver makes the playoffs and tries to make a switch, fans will erupt.
Playoff Machine
Check current playoff seedings and figure scenarios through the end of the season. Playoff Machine | Scenarios
John Elway recently told Fox Sports that he plans to work with Tebow in the offseason, particularly focusing on his footwork. Remember, Tebow missed an offseason because of the lockout. This is a player who is improving quickly. An offseason of working with his coaches and Elway will help immensely.
At the present, though, the focus is on the final three games, beginning next week when Bill Belichick gets his crack at putting Tebowmania in its place. Still, Tebow and his teammates -- Denver continued to play strong defense Sunday -- have a good thing going with no signs of it slowing down.
“I think we’re rewriting the book on 'keep fighting,’” Fox said. “Our guys never blink.”
Nor does Tebowmania.
» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
FALLING
1. My ability to defend the Detroit Lions' aggression: Nothing that happened Sunday at Soldier Field will change the emerging national narrative of the Lions as a dirty team. And in all fairness, it's getting harder and harder to split hairs in explaining the difference between tough and dirty as it relates to their play. Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher said the Lions play to the "echo" of the whistle, and that's a fair and accurate way to describe it from a technical standpoint.. But visuals of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh ripping off Bears quarterback Jay Cutler's helmet, and Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford slinging the Bears' D.J. Moore to the ground by his helmet, carry far more weight in the court of public opinion. Monday, coach Jim Schwartz asked why no one was calling the hit by Bears defensive end Julius Peppers on receiver Calvin Johnson dirty. It was a "clothesline right in the neck area," Schwartz said. Technically, Schwartz is right. But the volume of instances the Lions have produced this season, explainable or otherwise, is reaching critical mass.
2. Minnesota Vikings' competitiveness vs. Green Bay Packers: The Packers are supposed to be the Vikings' top rivals, but the Vikings have produced a number of complete clunkers against them in recent years. They lost 45-7 Monday night, absorbed a 31-3 loss at home in 2010 and were embarrassed 34-3 at Lambeau Field in 2007. We should give the Packers some credit for their performances in those games, but on each occasion the Vikings seemed mentally disengaged from the start. Monday night's game seemed over as soon as the Packers' Randall Cobb returned a punt 80 yards for a touchdown -- with all of one minute and 18 seconds gone in the game. NFL teams have to show up 16 days a year. For some reason, the Vikings are habitually missing that train against a division rival.
3. Remi Ayodele, Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle: Although he has not been seeing much playing time, Ayodele had started the Vikings' first eight games as the free agent replacement for nose tackle Pat Williams. In those eight games, Ayodele was unofficially credited with two tackles. The Vikings finally replaced him in the starting lineup Monday night with rookie Christian Ballard, who is a better pass rusher. Ayodele isn't the reason why the Vikings are 2-7, but he has to qualify as one of the least productive free agent acquisitions in recent memory. He signed a three-year, $9 million deal that includes $4.25 million in 2011 compensation.
RISING
1. Canton credentials for Devin Hester, Chicago Bears returner: Hester is one return away from tying the NFL record for touchdown returns of 19, set by Deion Sanders. He's reached that precipice in less than half the career games it took Sanders and, at 29, would seem to have a number of highly productive years remaining in his career. It's reasonable to believe he'll not just break Sanders' record but ultimately crush it. So if Hester's career arc rises so high above the best returners in NFL history, it would be hard for Hall of Fame voters to ignore him. Here's the way Urlacher put it Monday: "He's the greatest of all time at what he does, and in my opinion, when you're the greatest of all time at your position you should be in the Hall of Fame. He is a first-ballot Hall of Famer in my opinion."
2. Dom Capers, Packers defensive coordinator: We don't have a recording of every word he spoke last week, but we can assume that Capers took cornerback Charles Woodson's blunt assessment of the Packers defense in stride. Capers started coaching four years before Woodson was born, but you're never too experienced to tune out constructive criticism. We'll never know what Capers would have done Monday night had Woodson not spoken out, but he certainly reinforced his reputation as a flexible manager by turning loose his players on the blitz. "That's the great thing about Dom," Woodson said. "You can talk to him. Tell him what's on your mind. Tell him what you think."
3. Bears competitiveness in the NFC North: After watching the Packers' three-phase romp Monday night, it's hard to conceive them not winning the division. But of all the teams remaining on their schedule, the Bears might be the most formidable. One way to stop a high-flying offense is to hit it in the proverbial mouth and then capitalize on mistakes. One of the few things the Vikings did to the Packers was put pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked three times and was forced to scramble away from pressure on six other plays. The Bears can put the same kind of pressure on Rodgers and are better equipped to take advantage of that situation. We'll see if the teams' Week 16 matchup carries any postseason implications.
FALLING
1. My ability to defend the Detroit Lions' aggression: Nothing that happened Sunday at Soldier Field will change the emerging national narrative of the Lions as a dirty team. And in all fairness, it's getting harder and harder to split hairs in explaining the difference between tough and dirty as it relates to their play. Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher said the Lions play to the "echo" of the whistle, and that's a fair and accurate way to describe it from a technical standpoint.. But visuals of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh ripping off Bears quarterback Jay Cutler's helmet, and Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford slinging the Bears' D.J. Moore to the ground by his helmet, carry far more weight in the court of public opinion. Monday, coach Jim Schwartz asked why no one was calling the hit by Bears defensive end Julius Peppers on receiver Calvin Johnson dirty. It was a "clothesline right in the neck area," Schwartz said. Technically, Schwartz is right. But the volume of instances the Lions have produced this season, explainable or otherwise, is reaching critical mass.
2. Minnesota Vikings' competitiveness vs. Green Bay Packers: The Packers are supposed to be the Vikings' top rivals, but the Vikings have produced a number of complete clunkers against them in recent years. They lost 45-7 Monday night, absorbed a 31-3 loss at home in 2010 and were embarrassed 34-3 at Lambeau Field in 2007. We should give the Packers some credit for their performances in those games, but on each occasion the Vikings seemed mentally disengaged from the start. Monday night's game seemed over as soon as the Packers' Randall Cobb returned a punt 80 yards for a touchdown -- with all of one minute and 18 seconds gone in the game. NFL teams have to show up 16 days a year. For some reason, the Vikings are habitually missing that train against a division rival.
3. Remi Ayodele, Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle: Although he has not been seeing much playing time, Ayodele had started the Vikings' first eight games as the free agent replacement for nose tackle Pat Williams. In those eight games, Ayodele was unofficially credited with two tackles. The Vikings finally replaced him in the starting lineup Monday night with rookie Christian Ballard, who is a better pass rusher. Ayodele isn't the reason why the Vikings are 2-7, but he has to qualify as one of the least productive free agent acquisitions in recent memory. He signed a three-year, $9 million deal that includes $4.25 million in 2011 compensation.
RISING
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Mike DiNovo/US PresswireTeammate Brian Urlacher thinks Bears return man Devin Hester belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Mike DiNovo/US PresswireTeammate Brian Urlacher thinks Bears return man Devin Hester belongs in the Hall of Fame.2. Dom Capers, Packers defensive coordinator: We don't have a recording of every word he spoke last week, but we can assume that Capers took cornerback Charles Woodson's blunt assessment of the Packers defense in stride. Capers started coaching four years before Woodson was born, but you're never too experienced to tune out constructive criticism. We'll never know what Capers would have done Monday night had Woodson not spoken out, but he certainly reinforced his reputation as a flexible manager by turning loose his players on the blitz. "That's the great thing about Dom," Woodson said. "You can talk to him. Tell him what's on your mind. Tell him what you think."
3. Bears competitiveness in the NFC North: After watching the Packers' three-phase romp Monday night, it's hard to conceive them not winning the division. But of all the teams remaining on their schedule, the Bears might be the most formidable. One way to stop a high-flying offense is to hit it in the proverbial mouth and then capitalize on mistakes. One of the few things the Vikings did to the Packers was put pressure on quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked three times and was forced to scramble away from pressure on six other plays. The Bears can put the same kind of pressure on Rodgers and are better equipped to take advantage of that situation. We'll see if the teams' Week 16 matchup carries any postseason implications.
Halftime thoughts: Eagles sloppy vs Bears
November, 7, 2011
11/07/11
10:30
PM ET
By
Dan Graziano | ESPN.com
PHILADELPHIA -- The only thing missing from the final two minutes of the first half of the "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles was circus music. A first half that had featured tough defense, ugly injuries and more than a few troubling signs for the home team, degenerated into a penalty-and-fumble-fest that gave each team a free touchdown and the Bears a 17-10 halftime lead.
Things seemed to be turning the Eagles' way in those final two minutes when Bears running back Matt Forte fumbled on third down and Eagles linebacker Brian Rolle ran the ball back 22 yards for a touchdown that tied the game at 10-10. And in spite of consecutive offside penalties that gave the Bears a first down without any time running off the clock, the Eagles managed to force a punt with a little more than a minute left. But DeSean Jackson fumbled the punt, giving the Bears the ball in the red zone. And after the Eagles appeared to force a three-and-out and a field-goal attempt, Jason Babin was flagged for roughing the passer, and the Bears converted their fresh chance with a Marion Barber touchdown.
It was a poor ending for the Eagles to a topsy-turvy half that began with some discouraging reminders of things that went wrong during their four-game losing streak. The Bears' opening drive, on which Forte alone gained 52 of the 79 yards, recalled a couple of early-season games in which the Eagles' run defense looked soft and vulnerable. And once the Eagles had the ball, quarterback Michael Vick looked shaky in his decision-making, throwing one bad interception and nearly throwing another as he seemed to be trying to force the ball into tight spots. Eight days after looking smooth, efficient and responsible in a dominating victory over the Cowboys, the Eagles' offense had a hard time getting anything going against a fired-up and rested Bears front line.
But with Bears defensive lineman Julius Peppers off the field for a few plays, Vick was able to move the Eagles down the field and into field goal range just before the two-minute warning. Alex Henery barely made the 47-yard field goal.
After that first drive, the Eagles do seem to have shored some things up on their run defense and have managed to keep Forte more or less bottled up. The question is whether they can start playing smarter football and get back the momentum. Starting safety Nate Allen is out of the game with a concussion, forcing rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett into a larger role in the secondary, and the Bears should be able to take some shots downfield as a result. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler looks excited to have receiver Earl Bennett back from injury, and is looking his way a lot on third down.
The Eagles also lost cornerback Asante Samuel for a time with ... oh, man, it hurts just to type this ... a "groin laceration." But Samuel returned to the game in the first half's final minutes and seems to have recovered. The Eagles' biggest issue Monday nigh is, once again, their own silly mistakes. We'll see if they can cut those down in the second half.
Things seemed to be turning the Eagles' way in those final two minutes when Bears running back Matt Forte fumbled on third down and Eagles linebacker Brian Rolle ran the ball back 22 yards for a touchdown that tied the game at 10-10. And in spite of consecutive offside penalties that gave the Bears a first down without any time running off the clock, the Eagles managed to force a punt with a little more than a minute left. But DeSean Jackson fumbled the punt, giving the Bears the ball in the red zone. And after the Eagles appeared to force a three-and-out and a field-goal attempt, Jason Babin was flagged for roughing the passer, and the Bears converted their fresh chance with a Marion Barber touchdown.
It was a poor ending for the Eagles to a topsy-turvy half that began with some discouraging reminders of things that went wrong during their four-game losing streak. The Bears' opening drive, on which Forte alone gained 52 of the 79 yards, recalled a couple of early-season games in which the Eagles' run defense looked soft and vulnerable. And once the Eagles had the ball, quarterback Michael Vick looked shaky in his decision-making, throwing one bad interception and nearly throwing another as he seemed to be trying to force the ball into tight spots. Eight days after looking smooth, efficient and responsible in a dominating victory over the Cowboys, the Eagles' offense had a hard time getting anything going against a fired-up and rested Bears front line.
But with Bears defensive lineman Julius Peppers off the field for a few plays, Vick was able to move the Eagles down the field and into field goal range just before the two-minute warning. Alex Henery barely made the 47-yard field goal.
After that first drive, the Eagles do seem to have shored some things up on their run defense and have managed to keep Forte more or less bottled up. The question is whether they can start playing smarter football and get back the momentum. Starting safety Nate Allen is out of the game with a concussion, forcing rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett into a larger role in the secondary, and the Bears should be able to take some shots downfield as a result. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler looks excited to have receiver Earl Bennett back from injury, and is looking his way a lot on third down.
The Eagles also lost cornerback Asante Samuel for a time with ... oh, man, it hurts just to type this ... a "groin laceration." But Samuel returned to the game in the first half's final minutes and seems to have recovered. The Eagles' biggest issue Monday nigh is, once again, their own silly mistakes. We'll see if they can cut those down in the second half.
