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TheFault17 makes a welcome point after reading about Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson making a positive impression during rookie minicamps over the weekend.

"A third-round QB looks good against other rookies and undrafted players? Who would have thunk it?" he writes. "Not hating on Wilson at all, but there's way too much stock put in rookie minicamps. Is it September yet?"

It's definitely not September, but it's never too early for keeping things in their proper perspective.

A year ago, the NFL lockout led teams to cancel offseason camps entirely.

That did not stop Patrick Peterson from scoring four touchdowns on punt returns for the Arizona Cardinals. It did not stop Aldon Smith from leading the San Francisco 49ers in sacks with 14. It did not prevent mid-round picks K.J. Wright and Richard Sherman from becoming solid starters for the Seattle Seahawks.

Bruce Miller, a seventh-round pick from Central Florida, became the 49ers' starting fullback despite playing defensive end in college. Then there was undrafted free agent Doug Baldwin, who led the Seahawks in receiving.

Perhaps these rookies would have enjoyed even greater success with some additional on-field prep time in the spring. This year, I'll be interested in revisiting some of the rookie camp storylines to see which ones, if any, proved helpful.

RENTON, Wash. -- Where NFC West teams still have needs heading into the final four rounds of the 2012 NFL draft:

• Arizona Cardinals: offensive tackle. The team chose receiver Michael Floyd over tackle Riley Reiff in the first round. That was understandable, but without a second-round choice, the Cardinals weren't going to find a starting tackle in this draft, most likely. Taking cornerback Jamell Fleming in the third round drove home that reality.
• St. Louis Rams: outside linebacker. Other teams in the division have found starters after first couple rounds. Seattle did it with K.J. Wright in the fourth round last year. San Francisco found NaVorro Bowman in the third previously. The Rams have the first pick of the fourth round Saturday. Perhaps there's a linebacker worth taking there.
• San Francisco 49ers: guard. The 49ers traded back from the third round into the early fourth. Finding an interior offensive lineman isn't a huge priority at this point. Only seven linemen are active on game days, anyway. But if the 49ers saw one good enough to push Daniel Kilgore and Alex Boone for the starting job at right guard, that could be a consideration?
• Seattle Seahawks: tight end. The team lost John Carlson in free agency and decided against signing 32-year-old Visanthe Shiancoe before the draft. Shiancoe could still be a fallback, presumably, but with only three tight ends off the board in the first three rounds, that could be a position to consider.

Should be another fun day. I'm set up and ready to go. The video above does feature some NFC West talk. Jon Gruden's thoughts on Russell Wilson were interesting. Gruden likes the new Seattle quarterback's potential.

RENTON, Wash. -- There were no bold strikes up the draft board for NFC West teams Thursday night.

There was resignation among those hoping the St. Louis Rams would emerge with a No. 1 wide receiver for quarterback Sam Bradford. The Rams traded down instead, taking LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers after wideouts Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd vanished from the talent pool right before St. Louis picked.

There was the expected in Arizona, where the Cardinals went with Floyd over tackle Riley Reiff, no slam dunk but a widely projected scenario in recent weeks.

There was waiting in San Francisco, where the 49ers did not pick until No. 30, where they selected Illinois receiver A.J. Jenkins shortly after two top guards landed elsewhere.

And then there was utter shock in Seattle, where the Seahawks used the 15th overall choice for a player with more time logged in jail than in the mainstream media mock drafts circulating recently.

The Seahawks could have had pass-rushers Quinton Coples, Melvin Ingram or Chandler Jones, but instead they went with West Virginia's Bruce Irvin, a former junior-college transfer with a rough past, a sensational first step and a history with Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who once recruited him to USC.

Irvin is not Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas or Dwight Freeney. He is not even Von Miller or Jevon Kearse. The Seahawks think he'll become that type of player quickly, however, and they are not shy about leaving that impression. It's an upset if Irvin fails to reach double digits in sacks this season, to hear the Seahawks speak of him.

"This guy comes off the ball like Dwight Freeney and Von Miller and Jevon Kearse," general manager John Schneider said.

Irvin is not for everyone. At 6-foot-3 and 248 pounds, he's a pure pass-rusher, not a player with the strength to anchor against the run on early downs. Irvin represents what Carroll wants for the "Leo" role manned capably by Chris Clemons in recent years. Irvin will play immediately as a situational pass-rusher. The plan will be to groom him as Clemons' successor eventually.

"He is exactly the makeup that you are looking for," Carroll said. "This goes all the way back to Charles Haley and Chris Doleman and Derrick Thomas. That is the kind of effect this guy has a chance to have. He has a lot to learn. He is going to have to grow up with us and learn our system. But the makeup of this player is so rare. He looks like a carbon copy of Von Miller rushing the passer."

Seattle spent big to retain run-stuffing defensive end Red Bryant in free agency. The money Bryant commanded means he'll be on the field for early downs. And with Clemons coming off an 11-sack season, that meant the Seahawks weren't looking for an every-down defensive end. They were looking for a player with a unique set of skills, and Irvin fits on that front. His 6.7-second time in the three-cone drill was the fastest for any player at the scouting combine.

"This position is so rare to find a guy that runs this fast," Carroll said.

Irvin follows a pattern in Seattle. Bryant is much bigger than the typical defensive end. Brandon Browner (6-4) and Richard Sherman (6-3) are taller than the typical cornerback. Kam Chancellor is the biggest strong safety in the league. Earl Thomas might be the NFL's fastest free safety. Linebacker K.J. Wright stands 6-4 and is rangier than most.

Now comes Irvin, who played wide receiver in high school before flunking out as a junior. Irvin was living on the streets for two years, at one point keeping his possessions in a bag. He spent a couple weeks in jail after allegedly robbing a drug dealer. Irvin pulled himself together, earned his GED and landed, eventually, on the football team at Mount San Antonio College.

"I went through a lot of stuff in my life," Irvin said. "I've seen a lot. The average person would not be on this call."

Nothing came of a more recent arrest for destruction of property.

"The Lord knew it was B.S.," Irvin said, drawing laughter from reporters huddled around a conference-call speaker at Seahawks headquarters.

A year ago, the Seahawks shocked draft analysts by selecting tackle James Carpenter with the 25th overall choice. Carpenter hadn't appeared in many first-round mock drafts, but the Seahawks weren't the only team with a first-round grade on him. Pittsburgh and Green Bay also liked him. An injury derailed Carpenter last season, making it tough to evaluate that choice. The Irvin selection was similar in that virtually no one projected the move.

So far, though, Carroll has usually been right when targeting specific defensive players for specific roles. And there is precedent within the division for surprise first-round selections making an immediate impact.

The 49ers selected Aldon Smith seventh overall last year when few projected the Missouri pass-rusher to San Francisco. Smith, unlike Irvin, was widely considered a top-15 prospect by analysts. Smith finished his rookie season with 14 sacks, finishing behind only Miller in defensive-rookie-of-the-year balloting, even though conventional wisdom suggested Smith would need time to develop.

Smith succeeded right away largely because the 49ers used him properly, asking him to do the one thing he could do best: rush the passer.

The bar has been set high for Irvin.

"I'm just a great athlete," Irvin said. "I'm going to do great things for this organization. The sky is the limit for me."

What's going on: Our eight divisional bloggers are participating in an ongoing mock draft Monday. Each blogger can make selections or trade picks for the four teams in his division.

The latest: I selected Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones for the Seattle Seahawks with the 27th overall choice, acquired from New England as part of a deal involving the 12th pick.

My rationale: The Seahawks like defensive players with unusual physical characteristics. Jones has freakishly long arms and would upgrade a pass rush that was lacking in 2011. "Highly athletic, vine-armed, havoc-wreaking pass-rusher with rare dimensions and a developing frame to fill out and become a pass-rushing force," Nolan Nawrocki writes in his annual draft guide for Pro Football Weekly. Seattle still needs help at linebacker, but this draft is deep at that position, according to Seahawks general manager John Schneider. The team landed starting linebacker K.J. Wright in the fourth round a year ago. Finding an impact pass-rusher later would be more difficult. Jones fills a primary need, and he does so 15 selections later than the Seahawks were originally scheduled to select. That seems like a welcome development for the Seahawks, who get another chance to help themselves at No. 31.

What's next for the NFC West: The San Francisco 49ers hold the 30th choice.

The NFC West received only a belated dishonorable mention when Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. listed teams set up poorly for the 2012 NFL draft.

Atlanta, New Orleans, Oakland and the New York Giants made the list. Williamson generally likes where NFC West teams stand, and I would agree, but here are potential concerns for each team in the division:

• St. Louis Rams: The Rams are set up beautifully for the long term after acquiring additional first-round picks in 2013 and 2014. They could use a true difference-maker at wide receiver, a clear No. 1 to stand out from a group with pretty good depth. Drafting a wide receiver at No. 6 would make sense, but what if the Rams aren't comfortable with taking Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd that early? Could they feel pressure to reach? I think they'll have the long term in mind. Coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead are just starting out. Sure, their team needs playmakers, but time is on their side. Having an additional second-round choice puts the Rams in even stronger position for this draft.


• Seattle Seahawks: The team has no fifth-round pick thanks to the Marshawn Lynch trade. But after signing quarterback Matt Flynn and helping the pass rush with Jason Jones' addition, the Seahawks should face little pressure to draft for need in the first round. The Seahawks would ideally move back from the 12th overall slot, adding picks -- perhaps a fifth-rounder to make up for the one Seattle sent to Buffalo. The team could use a starting middle linebacker. There's good depth at that position in this draft, meaning the Seahawks can come out OK even if Luke Kuechly is not available. Seattle found starting linebacker K.J. Wright in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, which had less depth at the position.


• Arizona Cardinals: Teams prefer to enter a draft with at least one pick in every round and no glaring needs. The Cardinals have no second-round choice. They also have a clear need for an offensive tackle. That combination could put pressure on the Cardinals to select a tackle in the first round. What if there are no tackles worthy of the 13th overall selection? Arizona has done a good job favoring value over need in multiple instances over recent drafts. Taking running back Ryan Williams in the second round last year comes to mind as one example. Ideally, the Cardinals would move back in this draft, pick up a second-round choice and still find a tackle to further solidify their line. They might have to move back into the early 20s to get a second-rounder, unless they were comfortable giving up later-round picks as part of a deal.


• San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have one pick in every round, and no glaring needs. Picking 30th overall isn't very exciting, but neither are the 49ers' needs. They could use an interior offensive lineman (yawn). They could find room for the right receiver, cornerback or safety. Depth for the front seven could be nice. What about running back? Oh, and if tight end Coby Fleener is there, he could make sense too. The 49ers could go in just about any direction, a good thing for a team coming off a 13-3 season. The only complaint is picking so late, but that's a small price to pay for winning.

Any other concerns for these teams? These are the ones that come to mind for me.

Seattle Seahawks fans might recall linebacker David Hawthorne, then an emerging player, firing his agent and waiting til the last minute before signing a new contract in 2010.

Hawthorne was an exclusive-rights free agent at the time, meaning he had one choice: take a minimal one-year offer or hold out.

Exclusive-rights free agents usually re-sign as a matter of course, but not Hawthorne.

That series of events came to mind Tuesday when the New Orleans Saints announced they had reached agreement with Hawthorne as an unrestricted free agent.

A humbling market for inside linebackers suggested the Seahawks might be able to re-sign Hawthorne at a bargain rate, but pride sometimes intervenes. Players forced to take less money than anticipated sometimes feel more comfortable doing so elsewhere.

It's too early to say whether that was the case with Hawthorne. Initial news reports said contract terms were not available.

While Hawthorne led the Seahawks in tackles over the past three seasons, the Seahawks made other players higher priorities this offseason. They re-signed Red Bryant to a $35 million deal. They signed Matt Flynn for three years and $19 million.

Hawthorne visited Detroit and New Orleans. With the Saints, he joins former Seahawks teammate Will Herring. Hawthorne also gets a chance to start at middle linebacker if and when incumbent Jonathan Vilma serves a bounty-related suspension, as yet unannounced.

The Seahawks are hurting for experienced depth at linebacker, but their leadership has welcomed the opportunity to address needs in the draft. K.J. Wright, a fourth-round choice in 2011, played well enough right away for the team to feel good about dumping Aaron Curry. Malcolm Smith, a seventh-rounder in 2011, is another young prospect.

Seattle appeared likely to address linebacker in the 2012 draft with or without Hawthorne in the picture. Boston College's Luke Kuechly is one option in the first round. The Seahawks have also fared well finding defensive starters in the middle rounds, from Wright to starting cornerback Richard Sherman, to Pro Bowl strong safety Kam Chancellor.

Re-signing veteran linebacker Leroy Hill is another option for Seattle.

Brock Huard, Mike Salk and I spent 13-14 minutes Thursday discussing where the Seattle Seahawks stand heading toward the 2012 NFL draft.

One question: Should the team focus on adding a front-line receiver to help new quarterback Matt Flynn, or should finding pass-rush help (and possibly linebacker help) stand as top priority?

I lean toward making pass-rush help a higher priority while the team finds out whether Flynn has the ability to maximize the existing weapons and make full use of additional ones.

The chart shows which players accounted for the Seahawks' 33 sacks last season.

Five of the players with at least 3.0 sacks are unsigned and/or will not return.

Anthony Hargrove has agreed to terms with Green Bay, Leroy Hill is unsigned and Raheem Brock is not expected back. Jason Jones, signed from Tennessee, should help pump up the numbers to a degree. But there's definitely room for another contributor.

Audio here.

NFC West thoughts as NFL free agency runs through its second day:

• The Seattle Seahawks' free-agent visit with Steve Hutchinson calls attention to the team's situation at left guard. Robert Gallery's $5 million salary and $1.5 million bonus represent a steep price. If the Seahawks are going to pay $6.5 million for a left guard in 2012, Hutchinson would appear to be the better value. Re-signing Paul McQuistan for depth at guard and tackle could also make sense.
• Free-agent quarterback Chad Henne canceled his visit to the Seahawks after reaching an agreement on a contract with Jacksonville. Seattle still plans to meet with Matt Flynn, but the team has proven it will show restraint at the position when dealing with unproven prospects. That was the case last offseason when Seattle resisted acquiring Kevin Kolb. Flynn fits into a similar category.
• The San Francisco 49ers continue to consider a long list of options at wide receiver. Brandon Lloyd, Chaz Schilens and Mario Manningham are possibilities. Eddie Royal could become an option as well, Matt Barrows reports. The 49ers obviously hope to cover themselves at the position in free agency, taking off pressure to target any one position early in the draft.
• Former 49ers guard/tackle/center Adam Snyder gives the Cardinals improved depth on their offensive line. Losing him can be a positive for the 49ers if it forces them to seek an upgrade at the position. Veteran players such as Snyder are easy to coach. Sometimes teams get comfortable with them at the expense of upgrading. The 49ers came out OK last offseason after losing center David Baas to the Giants.
• The Seahawks and St. Louis Rams both have interest in former Tennessee Titans defensive lineman Jason Jones. Jones struggled at defensive end last season. He would play tackle with the Rams or Seahawks. St. Louis has the greater need. Seattle could use Jones as depth behind Red Bryant and as an inside pass-rusher.
• Seahawks linebacker David Hawthorne plans to visit New Orleans. The Saints should know him well. Hawthorne had a combined 21 tackles and one interception against New Orleans in two games during the 2010 season (one in postseason). He faced the Rams six times when new Saints defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was head coach in St. Louis. Hawthorne is an NFL success story as an undrafted free agent-turned-starter. Seattle needs help at linebacker whether or not Hawthorne returns. K.J. Wright can move from the strong side to the middle if needed.
• The Cardinals remain largely in a holding pattern while awaiting a decision from Peyton Manning. Other veteran free-agent quarterbacks are signing deals around the league. That's no big deal for Arizona if the Cardinals are comfortable paying a $7 million bonus to keep Kolb. But if Manning signs elsewhere and Arizona wants to sign a cheaper alternative to Kolb, the pickings could be slim. Matt Hasselbeck comes to mind if Manning lands in Tennessee.
• The Rams' interest in former Houston Texans tackle Eric Winston has led to a potential visit.

Thanks for coming along.

Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The games are not yet here, of course, but most teams have long since shifted their mindsets forward.

Tuesday brought a first look at free agency for NFC West teams. Now comes a first look at the draft, to be revisited as teams add and subtract players in free agency.

Thanks to those who left comments suggesting topics for this space. I've targeted a few for future items and drawn on the general thrust — more free agency and draft stuff, please — for this one. The comments affirmed how much we look forward to NFL offseasons.

Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. offered general thoughts on potential considerations for each team.

Here we go ...

St. Louis Rams

First-round position: second overall.

Three primary needs: WR, OLB, OL

In the spotlight: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Mocking it up: Kiper has the Rams selecting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon. McShay has them selecting USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil.

Muench's thoughts: "The first thing that jumps out at me is the value at No. 2. Blackmon is the best receiver in the group, but No. 2 is way too rich to take a receiver in this draft, especially Blackmon, who is not Julio Jones or A.J. Green. The Rams need help at outside linebacker, but the value is not there. This defensive tackle class is very poor. When you look at those offensive tackles and what the Rams have already spent on the position, I understand the hesitation, but going after Kalil or Iowa's Riley Reiff, depending on which one they like, would make sense. Reiff is more balanced and fundamentally sound. Kalil has more talent. Blackmon would make sense if the Rams traded back, but if they are stuck at No. 2, offensive tackle makes the most sense."

Sando's follow-up: The top two needs listed are the same ones I listed in a similar item one year ago, but there are new needs sprouting up. Defensive tackle was the third need one year ago, and it remains a big need for St. Louis. The situation on the offensive line is unsettled enough to give that position a priority. Using another early choice for a tackle would not inspire much excitement in St. Louis. The need for playmakers appears paramount. Whatever the Rams do, they absolutely, positively must give quarterback Sam Bradford a fighting chance. Another season filled with sacks and injuries could inflict long-term damage to his career. Coach Jeff Fisher and coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will gear the offense toward the ground game in an effort to protect Bradford.

Seattle Seahawks

First-round position: 11th or 12th overall

Three primary needs: QB, DE, LB

In the spotlight: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Mocking it up: Kiper has the Seahawks selecting South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram. McShay thinks Alabama running back Trent Richardson could be the choice.

Muench's thoughts: "The Seahawks are not in a great spot given their needs. Quinton Coples from North Carolina could be the edge rusher who starts from Day One and is more than just a situational player, but I do not think he'll be there when Seattle picks. He is almost 6-foot-6 and weighs 281 pounds. A lot of guys with his talent protect themselves during the offseason, but Coples worked his butt off at Senior Bowl practices and had a great game, too. Ingram does not have great size, but he is explosive enough and strong enough to play defensive end. At quarterback, there's a big drop after Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Ryan Tannehill could go at the end of the first round, but No. 11 or 12 is way too rich. Brock Osweiler moves very well for a quarterback of his height. These are interesting guys and all it takes is for one team to fall in love with them, but you are reaching if you do it at No. 11 or 12. The reality is that there are so few good quarterbacks in most drafts. It usually doesn't work out when you force the issue."

Sando's follow-up: Finding a long-term quarterback remains the top priority for the Seahawks, but once again the planets appear reluctant to align for them. Parting with Matt Hasselbeck and passing over Andy Dalton have left Seattle with Tarvaris Jackson and developmental quarterback Josh Portis. Chasing after Peyton Manning could make sense for the Seahawks. They have good young players. Adding a front-line quarterback could put them over the top in the division. Linebacker has replaced the offensive line as a primary need for the Seahawks. That should not be the case, in theory, because the team had so much invested in a couple of relatively young linebackers. Aaron Curry and Lofa Tatupu are gone, however, and David Hawthorne is a free agent. The team could move K.J. Wright into the middle.

Arizona Cardinals

First-round position: 13th

Three primary needs: OT, LB, WR

In the spotlight: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Mocking it up: Kiper has the Cardinals taking Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin. McShay has them taking Martin's teammate, guard David DeCastro.

Muench's thoughts: "Kalil and Reiff are the highest-rated tackles. I doubt either one will be there at No. 13. Martin makes sense because of his upside more than anything, but he is not a mauler. He could be gone at 13 if there is a run on tackles, but he might be a reach that early, anyway. There is another dropoff after him, too. This is not a great tackle class. Thirteen is a little early for Kendall Wright, the Baylor receiver, even if he has a good combine. Wright's stock is rising, but because of his size (5-10, 194), he won't win as many one-on-one battles. There was a big jump from 2010 to 2011 in his consistency with his hands and his route running. Adding a pass-rusher is more interesting for me because Ingram and Alabama's Courtney Upshaw could fit. Upshaw doesn't have that idea closing speed, but his initial burst and power are impressive. He can get off blocks. He will be a productive edge rusher. Some 3-4 teams prefer taller outside linebackers, but Arizona and Pittsburgh have gotten away with shorter guys. Ingram and Upshaw are both in that 6-1 or 6-2 range. Neither will be great in coverage, but that has been overrated a little bit. Basically, he has to be able to hold up in underneath zone."

Sando follow-up: The Cardinals haven't drafted an offensive lineman early since selecting Levi Brown fifth overall in 2007. If Brown returns, it will be at a reduced rate. Upgrading the pass protection seems important, in my view, because quarterback Kevin Kolb has not shown great pocket awareness. He has also had injury problems. Landing Manning would obviously change those dynamics. Manning has succeeded for years without top talent across the line. The depth at receiver could use stabilizing, particularly if Early Doucet becomes the latest secondary Arizona target to depart. But with Larry Fitzgerald on the team, the position is in good hands. Very good hands. Some Cardinals fans have pointed to strong sack numbers as evidence Arizona doesn't need to make significant upgrades in that area. Have you ever met a defensive coordinator satisfied with his pass rush? O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho have shown promise. They are not good enough for the Cardinals to lean back in their chairs and feel great about their outside rush for the next few years.

San Francisco 49ers

First-round position: 30th

Three primary needs: WR, CB, OL

In the spotlight: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Mocking it up: Kiper points to South Carolina receiver Alshon Jeffery as a possibility. McShay goes with Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard.

Muench's thoughts: "Blackmon, Michael Floyd and Wright will be gone. That is your top tier of receivers. In a perfect world, you hope Wright or Floyd slips to you. Floyd makes sense in that scheme because of his ability to stretch the field, which could help Michael Crabtree underneath and Vernon Davis over the middle. Wright has speed, but he is not the traditional target to win one-on-ones. After that, we have three receivers with second-round grades. LSU's Rueben Randle, Jeffery and Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu are all vertical threats who must work on their route running. Randle might fit the Jim Harbaugh offense because he is quicker off the line. Jeffery must work on his release. Sanu might be the best for that scheme because he is a better route runner and is more consistent with his hands, but he has not shown the same kind of big-play ability. Jeffery's stock has fallen; he doesn't separate particularly well. He did have a good game against Dennard, who is a solid second-round prospect, but he is much bigger than Dennard. Sanu's size is insane and he has great body control, but can he keep his weight down? I do like Dennard at corner. He didn't have a great Senior Bowl week and he is small, but he is tough and I think that is going to go a long way to slow down receivers at the line of scrimmage. He has a short memory and that is so important. Janoris Jenkins and Kirkpatrick are two corners to watch. Both have off-field concerns. I think someone will fall in love with Jenkins and take him before the 49ers pick. Kirkpatrick is a bigger, longer corner. He can be physical. There is a good chance neither makes it that far, but if they do, it would be hard for San Francisco not to snatch one. More than likely, that would offer more value than any receiver they could get in that spot."

Sando follow-up: The 49ers have few obvious, immediate needs. That is a credit to their personnel department and to their coaches. Smith's expected return puts off for at least one season the need for San Francisco to pursue a quarterback. It probably removes the 49ers from the Manning conversation. I think the 49ers have tremendous flexibility picking this late in the draft. They do not need to target a receiver even though the position could use reinforcing after injuries knocked out Josh Morgan and diminished what Braylon Edwards could offer. Re-signing Carlos Rogers would stabilize the cornerback position, as well. The 49ers could justify going in just about any position with this pick.

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending:

Final Power Ranking: 21
Preseason Power Ranking: 25

Biggest surprise: Seattle's ground game continued building momentum after the Seahawks lost three starting offensive linemen to season-ending injuries. Losing rookies James Carpenter and John Moffitt from the line's right side threatened depth and continuity. Losing left tackle Russell Okung for the final four games should have been disastrous heading into games against Julius Peppers, Justin Smith and Calais Campbell. Instead, Seattle charged forward with Paul McQuistan at left tackle. Marshawn Lynch led the NFL in rushing yards over the final nine weeks of the season. He was fourth over the final four weeks, when McQuistan was in the lineup. Lynch needed only 15 games to top 1,200 yards rushing even though Seattle never started the same offensive line more than three games in a row. Line coach Tom Cable proved his worth.

Biggest disappointment: The Seahawks invested millions in free-agent weapons Sidney Rice and Zach Miller without getting much receiving production from either. Miller was a mainstay as a blocker, but Seattle did not maximize his talent as a receiver. Both Rice and Miller missed games to injury. They combined for 57 receptions, 717 yards and two touchdowns. Miller had 60-685-5 by himself with Oakland in 2010. Seattle went all season without getting a touchdown reception from a tight end. Rice underwent shoulder surgery this week and expects to require 3-4 months rehabilitation.

Biggest need: Quarterback and pass-rusher head the list. Those are arguably the two most important positions on any team. The Seahawks have done an admirable job building up their roster with emerging young talent, but they appear unlikely to take a big step forward without addressing those two key areas. The draft will be pivotal; a coin flip with Kansas City will determine whether Seattle drafts 11th or 12th overall.

Team MVP: Lynch, in a landslide. The adage about running backs being relatively replaceable did not apply to Seattle in this case. No back in the league ran as violently as Lynch this season. He ran through and over opponents, breaking free from packs of defenders. The Seahawks expect to add another big back through the draft or free agency, but there is only one Lynch. Re-signing him is a top priority.

In with the new: A strong rookie class made immediate contributions while offering promise for the future. Carpenter, Moffitt, linebacker K.J. Wright, cornerback Richard Sherman, receiver Doug Baldwin and receiver Ricardo Lockette showed enough to factor next season. All but Lockette project as starters. Another rookie receiver, Kris Durham, is returning from injury and has the size to become a Mike Williams type. Carpenter's future could be at guard if the team decides to stick with Giacomini at right tackle.

Nearly five months have passed since I set team-by-team expectations for the NFC West based on what I'd seen at training camps.

The San Francisco 49ers outperformed expectations. The St. Louis Rams fell far short. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks finished right about where I had projected, but there were more ups and downs along the way than almost anyone could have anticipated.

Let's reconcile expectations with results and try to learn something along the way.

St. Louis Rams

Projected wins: 8

Actual wins: 2

Following up: A tough schedule meant the Rams would need quarterback Sam Bradford to make significant improvement under new coordinator Josh McDaniels. I expected that to happen after speaking with Bradford and McDaniels in some detail during camp. I also expected the Rams' defense to remain a strength after adding veteran role players from winning organizations. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Injuries played a significant role on offense in general and at cornerback, a position I outlined as lacking sufficient depth. But the offensive line wasn't playing well even when the starters were together.

Lesson learned: Bradford and the Rams struggled down the stretch to close out the 2010 season. That should have invited more skepticism from me. I gave Bradford and McDaniels the benefit of the doubt based on Bradford's poise and the confidence both showed heading into the season. The narrative of an ascending young quarterback should not have been so persuasive. Adding veteran role players seemed to make sense at the time because the Rams weren't making significant financial commitments to them. However, signing so many older players meant the team lacked young depth. That should have set off alarms.

Arizona Cardinals

Projected wins: 7-8

Actual wins: 8

Following up: It's tough to take full credit for nailing this projection given how it happened. The team started 1-6 and rallied to 8-8 despite never getting much from newly acquired quarterback Kevin Kolb. I thought Arizona would have needed more games from Kolb to improve its record by three victories. Arizona's ability to manufacture victories through the return game and fourth-quarter rallies made up the difference. The concerns I raised about Kolb's durability in relation to the Cardinals' pass protection hit the mark. The defense showed more improvement than I had anticipated.

Lesson learned: Never underestimate strong safety Adrian Wilson. I had a hard time believing Wilson would hold up physically through a full season after suffering a torn biceps tendon during camp. Wilson not only held up, he got stronger as the season progressed. Wilson even earned a trip to the Pro Bowl. The Cardinals drove home a couple additional lessons this season. They showed that wheeling and dealing aggressively in free agency and through trades can build excitement without delivering immediate results. They also reminded us to withhold final judgments until late in a season. The view from 8-8 looks a lot better than the one from 1-6. But as we look ahead to 2012, we should not assume the Cardinals will continue on their recent trajectory. Every season is different.

San Francisco 49ers

Projected wins: 6-7

Actual wins: 13

Following up: My general feel for the team was accurate. How it would translate into victories was not. I thought the 49ers would be difficult to analyze in the short term because they had a new coaching staff. I thought better-than-expected play at quarterback could quickly upgrade their prospects. And I figured lower expectations from the outside would help. "I am saying there's a chance," was how I put it back in August. A chance for 13-3? Never saw that coming. In retrospect, I should have listed the 49ers' win range as "6+7" instead of 6-7.

Lesson learned: New coach Jim Harbaugh and staff impressed during camp, but I underestimated how much competent coaching would mean for the 49ers right away. The current coaches have done a phenomenal job fitting together how the offense, defense and special teams complement one another. While I allowed for the fact that San Francisco's defensive changes were by design, I wasn't convinced they would pay off. They did, and hugely. The 49ers' personnel people also get credit for resisting temptations to spend lavishly in free agency. They trusted their instincts and got great contributions from NaVorro Bowman and Carlos Rogers in particular. They paid Ray McDonald and parted with Aubrayo Franklin when no one was saying they should do those things. So, if and when the 49ers let players walk in free agency, we should realize things could be going to plan.

Seattle Seahawks

Projected wins: 5-7

Actual wins: 7

Following up: The Seahawks met expectations and probably exceeded them after suffering so many injuries to their offensive line and elsewhere. Seattle was, as expected, a team "eager to let young players develop before acting more boldly to upgrade the quarterback position in the offseason." The Seahawks were an easy team to read for those not blinded by coach Pete Carroll's public support for Tarvaris Jackson. They still need another pass-rusher and better play at quarterback to take the next step.

Lesson learned: Tom Cable is a fantastic offensive line coach, for one. Also, general manager John Schneider and the Seahawks' personnel people should get the benefit of the doubt on their evaluations. They repeatedly got positive results when turning to young players. They replaced Lawyer Milloy with Kam Chancellor and came out way ahead. They replaced Aaron Curry with rookie K.J. Wright and were correct, again. They continually churned the roster and made themselves deeper. They turned a project from the CFL (Brandon Browner) into a Pro Bowl first-alternate even while rookie fifth-round choice Richard Sherman became their best corner. So, if the Seahawks do not show interest in Green Bay quarterback Matt Flynn, we can trust it's because Schneider, formerly of the Packers, knows better.

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FALLING

1. Candlestick Park. Better make that Candlestick Dark, Candlelit Park or some other electricity-deprived variation. The 49ers' stadium, although steeped in tradition, already was notorious as an outdated, substandard NFL stadium. Having two power outages knock out the lights during "Monday Night Football" only reinforced perceptions. December was shaping up as a rough month for the old stadium even before Monday night. The 49ers recently secured funding for a new stadium in Santa Clara.

2. Top two wideouts from 2005 draft. San Francisco's Braylon Edwards (third overall) and Seattle's Mike Williams (10th) have struggled to make an impact lately. The 49ers made sure that would continue for Edwards when they named him inactive Monday night. The Seahawks placed Williams on injured reserve after their 2010 receiving leader suffered a broken ankle against the Chicago Bears in Week 15. With Sidney Rice aboard, Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate emerging and Kris Durham coming back as a potential Williams type, there are no assurances Williams will remain in the team's plans for next season.

3. NFC West draft status. All four division teams lost ground in the 2012 draft. The St. Louis Rams fell to 2-12 with a defeat to Cincinnati, but their strength of schedule improved relative to the Minnesota Vikings' strength of schedule. As a result, the Vikings overtook the Rams for second in the tentative order. Every other NFC West team won in Week 15. That was great for San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle as the regular season winds down. It won't help in the draft, of course.

RISING

1. 49ers' playoff credibility. Beating the previously 10-3 Pittsburgh Steelers on a national stage left the 49ers with surging confidence after a three-game stretch featuring two defeats. The 49ers improved to 11-3 and remained ahead of New Orleans in the race for the second seed in the NFC. They showed they could beat a playoff-caliber team through defense, special teams and improved play in the red zone. Alex Smith, Aldon Smith and various other 49ers played well enough to deserve mention here as well.

2. Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks quarterback. Jackson completed 15 of 19 passes after halftime to help the Seahawks turn a 14-7 deficit into a 38-14 victory at Soldier Field. Jackson has three touchdowns with no interceptions over Seattle's past three games. The Seahawks are 3-0 in those games and have reached 7-7 thanks largely to Jackson's improved play. Seattle now has every reason to bring back Jackson as its starter heading into next season. The plan would still remain for the Seahawks to draft or otherwise acquire a younger quarterback to begin developing in 2012. On a side note, lots of other Seahawks deserved consideration in this spot, from Red Bryant to K.J. Wright to Brandon Browner and others.

3. Cardinals' 2010 draft haul. Second-round pick Daryl Washington is an emerging star. Third-rounder Andre Roberts caught a touchdown pass for the second week in a row. Fourth-rounder O'Brien Schofield collected two sacks, forcing a game-altering fumble on one of them. Fifth-rounder John Skelton posted another comeback victory, improving his record to 4-1 as the Cardinals' starting quarterback this season. Even veteran safety Kerry Rhodes, acquired from the New York Jets for a 2010 fourth-round pick, played a strong game Sunday. First-round pick Dan Williams is on injured reserve. Nothing the Cardinals can do about that.

Thoughts on the Seattle Seahawks during their 38-14 victory over the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Week 15:

What it means: The Seahawks kept themselves alive in the NFC playoff picture through a mix of big-play defense and special teams, backed by continued efficient play from quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. The team has matched its victory total from last season and can finish with a winning record by beating San Francisco (home) and Arizona (road) in the final two weeks.

What I liked: Strong safety Kam Chancellor forced an early turnover. Also in the first half, free safety Earl Thomas picked off a pass deep in Seahawks territory. Defensive tackle Red Bryant scored on an interception return set up by K.J. Wright's quarterback pressure. Cornerback Brandon Browner scored on an interception return. Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown for the 10th consecutive game in which he has played. Lynch ran more effectively than the raw stats indicated. His average suffered from a 2-yard scoring run and some unfortunate early play calling in the red zone. Jon Ryan and the punt coverage team pinned the Bears deep in their own territory to give Seattle an early edge in field position. Jackson got hot early in the second half, finding Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu for long gains, setting up another Lynch TD, this one to tie the game. Jackson completed 19 of 31 passes for 227 yards, one touchdown and a 94.4 NFL passer rating.

What I didn't like: The Seahawks, by pitching the ball outside to Leon Washington instead of hammering straight ahead with Lynch, conceded the conventional running game on their first possession in the red zone. Seattle also left its backup left tackle, Paul McQuistan, alone against Bears defensive end Julius Peppers on a third-and-13 play from deep in Seattle territory. That unsurprisingly led to a sack, forced fumble and Bears touchdown to erase a 7-0 Seahawks lead. Center Max Unger, though enjoying a strong season overall, remained inconsistent with his shotgun snap placement. He was too high against St. Louis last week and too low this week, resulting in fumbled snaps both times.

What's next: The Seahawks are home against the 49ers in Week 16.

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FALLING

1. Josh McDaniels, St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator. The Rams were more than a few play calls away from beating the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Still, it was tough to justify the Rams' play selection near the goal line. Sending injured quarterback Sam Bradford on a naked bootleg made no sense. Running five consecutive plays from the 1 before finally handing off to Steven Jackson was also a head-scratcher. The joke will be on the rest of us, however, if McDaniels becomes a candidate to succeed Todd Haley as the Kansas City Chiefs' head coach.

2. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers quarterback. Smith suffered through arguably his worst game of the season during a 21-19 defeat at Arizona. He completed less than half his passes, averaged less than five yards per attempt and took five sacks. Smith finished the game with a 9.4 Total QBR score, his lowest of the season. He was not the only one to blame, of course. Pass protection was shaky. The running game was inconsistent. Play calling was questionable at times.

3. Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals quarterback. It's tough ranking any Cardinals player on the falling list after the team ended a five-game losing streak to the 49ers. This was a rough one for Kolb on a personal level, however. He took a sack, lost a fumble and absorbed a concussion on the Cardinals' third offensive play. Kolb left the game and missed a chance to build on his performance against Dallas the previous week. He has now missed four full games and most of a fifth.

RISING

1. Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona Cardinals head coach. The Cardinals have won five of their last six games to claw their way back from a 1-6 start to the season. This was the sort of reversal Cardinals ownership needed to see after the team had gone 3-15 over an 18-game period. Whisenhunt preached patience. He was right about the defense needing time under a first-year coordinator. He was right about the team developing younger talent on defense. He was right about the season turning eventually. Whisenhunt could not catch a break previously, but he caught a big one Sunday. His attempt to challenge a 49ers reception prevented San Francisco from running a successful fake field goal. The turnabout produced at least a 10-point swing for Arizona.

2. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks receiver. The undrafted rookie opened the game with a 37-yard kickoff return. He blocked one punt, downed another at the St. Louis 6-yard line and added a 29-yard touchdown reception. Baldwin was one of several young Seattle players making a positive impact. Rookie linebacker K.J. Wright finished the game with eight total tackles, three tackles for loss, two quarterback hits, one sack and one pass defensed.

3. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals receiver. Yes, Fitzgerald's stock is already through the roof. He gets special mention here following a performance that was extraordinary even by his standards. Seven receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown told only part of the story. Fitzgerald threw the key block on Early Doucet's 60-yard touchdown. He helped limit the 49ers to a field goal by tackling Dashon Goldson during an interception return. He turned a potential Goldson interception into a spectacular leaping grab and 46-yard touchdown for Arizona. Fitzgerald set up another Cardinals score with a 53-yard catch-and-run.

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FALLING

1. Rams/Seahawks special teams. St. Louis had its game-winning attempt at a field goal blocked as regulation expired against Arizona. The Rams then allowed the second-longest punt return in NFL history. Seattle did a better job on its coverage teams, but Leon Washington muffed a kickoff return, forcing the Seahawks to begin a drive at their own 5-yard line. The Seahawks also had a field goal try blocked. Another attempt barely sailed through after the Cowboys tipped the ball. These teams aren't good enough in other areas to tolerate basic breakdowns on special teams.

2. Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks quarterback. This was Jackson's most erratic performance of the season and one that validated the criticisms accompanying him from Minnesota to Seattle during the offseason. The Seahawks did not feel comfortable from a protection standpoint using their no-huddle offense extensively against Dallas. That seemed to hurt Jackson, who had been effective using those tactics. Life doesn't appear to get much easier for Jackson in the short term. He's got a game against Baltimore next.

3. Seahawks linebackers. Seattle's run defense entered Week 9 leading the NFL in yards per carry allowed. That ranking fell to third after the team had no answer for Cowboys rookie DeMarco Murray. Linebackers missed tackles and appeared out of position at times. The Cowboys won quite a few blocking battles. They had success running behind fullback Tony Fiammetta. Linebacker K.J. Wright seemed to learn some rookie lessons in this game.

RISING

1. Arizona Cardinals special teams. Patrick Peterson's winning 99-yard punt return followed Calais Campbell's game-saving blocked field goal during a 19-13 victory over the Rams. Cornerback Richard Marshall made a key block during Peterson's return. Peterson gets most of the credit, though. The Cardinals could very well be 0-8 instead of 2-6 without his touchdown returns against Carolina and St. Louis. Meanwhile, Campbell credited teammates Darnell Dockett, Clark Haggans and David Carter for helping him break through to block the field goal try. The Cardinals had to have those plays to break their six-game losing streak.

2. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks running back. Lynch rushed for 135 yards, his highest total since signing with Seattle, during an otherwise forgettable 23-13 defeat at Dallas. Establishing the ground game in the second half of the season probably stands as the Seahawks' top priority. This was a good first step. Lynch ran hard and found wider running lanes. He has now scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last four games, a first for a Seahawks runner since Shaun Alexander in 2005.

3. Bruce Miller, 49ers fullback. The 49ers converted Miller from defense to offense upon drafting him in the seventh round from Central Florida this year. Miller has gotten extensive playing time with an injury sidelining veteran starter Moran Norris. He has improved significantly and broke through as a skill player Sunday with a 30-yard touchdown reception during a 19-11 victory over the Washington Redskins. Most fullbacks go their entire NFL careers without making a play such as that one. Miller needed only eight games.