ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Titans in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): Jake Locker beats out Matt Hasselbeck in the training camp quarterback battle and never looks back. The second-year signal-caller provides huge energy for the Titans, alleviating concerns about his accuracy. He spreads the ball around to a nice stable if receivers, including Kenny Britt, who’s healthy all season, Nate Washington, who matches last year’s effort, and Kendall Wright, who catches on quickly and doesn’t look like a rookie.

With a running quarterback under center and all those receivers helping stretch the field, Chris Johnson gets room and has a big rebound year. Defenses have to decide: Stack the box and risk yielding big passes or keep numbers in coverage and see CJ break off chunks.

The pass rush fares far better than last season because Kamerion Wimbley proves to be a great signing -- one that's made even more so because the offense gives Tennessee leads that make opponents one-dimensional.

Mike Munchak is a coach of the year candidate in line for an extension as he takes the Titans to the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): They head into camp thinking they have two quarterbacks, but wind up with one getting hurt and the other struggling. Britt’s not healthy, Wright’s not effective and Johnson doesn’t rebound from last year, prompting speculation that his time as playmaker has past.

With inconsistent offense and not a lot of points, too much falls on the defense.

Teams get them in nickel and attack the guy in the slot. The Titans roll through several options there and none of them prove nearly as effective as Cortland Finnegan was. Derrick Morgan can’t mount the healthy and productive pass-rush campaign the team was banking on and Wimbley is also unable to lead any sort of consistent charge at opposing quarterbacks.

The Titans finish the year talking about how much better Locker will be in 2013. They also enter an uncertain time with Munchak and his staff, which head into the final year of their contracts not having shown they warrant extensions.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Titans and why.

Running back Chris Johnson could get away with one off season. He was a tentative runner in 2011 no matter what he or the team says about it. He got sick of early contact. He gave up too often. He went down too easily.

The Titans have made some changes that should help.

Whether Eugene Amano remains at center or is replaced, the pivot man will be next to veteran guard Steve Hutchinson. The team expects him to have a big, positive influence on the guy next to him. Fullback Ahmard Hall won’t be re-signed, so the Titans will go with Quinn Johnson or undrafted rookie Collin Mooney as the lead blocker if the Titans stick with a fullback. First-round draft pick Kendall Wright bolsters the receiving corps and should be able to threaten deep, as will a healthy Kenny Britt. An increasingly threatening passing game should help the Titans back defenses off. Take a defender out of the box, and Johnson should be more effective.

He’s also spending extensive offseason time with the team for the first time, and coaches are convinced picking apart last season and making corrections together through the spring and summer will make a difference.

Another piece of Johnson’s contract becomes guaranteed after this season. If he comes up with another dud, the team will have cause to bail.

We should schedule a Michael Crabtree discussion periodically just to get the blood pumping.

Linking to Matt Maiocco's piece from our latest "Around the NFC West" post got us talking Thursday morning.

"While fans expect 1,000-yard seasons from a player chosen with the No. 10 overall draft pick," Maiocco wrote, "the 49ers' offense is not one that features the outside receivers.

"Some view Crabtree as a bust. I am certainly not in that camp."

Indeed, there are mitigating factors to explain why Crabtree's production has lagged compared to other highly drafted receivers from the 2009 NFL class. A rookie contract dispute, injuries, the 2011 lockout, coaching turnover, a run-oriented scheme and spotty quarterback play come to mind. Of course, every team has its issues. The 49ers weren't the only ones.

"I agree with Maiocco," red n g0ld wrote. "Pretty hard to judge 'Crabs' when you consider our run-heavy scheme and that Alex Smith prefers the short passing game and tight ends."

"Yep, we're not built to have any flashy numbers out of our WRs," randdles added, "which is why I think that Randy Moss isn't gonna be particularly happy, especially with the other WRs we brought in. He might not even have one catch per game."

"It hurts me to say it," 4tni9er wrote, "but I think Crabtree would have prospered more with an offense that has more emphasis on the passing game (with another QB). There is a resistance from his side to Alex Smith, but it's getting better."

"Of all the 10 people who drafted ahead of Crabtree (Aaron Curry included), only Matthew Stafford, B.J. Raji and possibly Mark Sanchez are better value," 4949centennial wrote.

"I guess one could say it isn't primarily Crabtree's fault for the type of offense they have been running," Prominent_49ers wrote. "You would think he would produce just a bit more than what he has done so far for the team."

"I think the definition of 'bust' needs to be flushed out while trying to view Crabtree," joe_cool585 wrote. "While Maiocco may not view him as a bust, Crabtree sure as heck hasn't lived up to the reasonable expectations of a top 10 draft choice."

The first chart shows where Crabtree ranks among the eight receivers chosen in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft. The chart below shows stats for all eight of those players.

Find me a player in the league recovering from injury who’s saying he’s behind schedule or had concerns, and I’ll provide you with a reward.

Titans receiver Kenny Britt is recovering from a torn ACL. He and the team are optimistic he will be ready for opening day. All we can do is take their word for it and hope it's true.

In an appearance on The Wake Up Zone on Nashville radio this morning, he assessed where he currently stands. (Full disclosure: I work for the same radio station.)

“I’m out there running, mostly at full speed, cutting, running around,” Britt said. “The knee’s still swollen, but that comes with the territory and we’ve got three months before I get back on the field.”

Britt said he feels like the rehab is never-ending, and that it’s difficult to watch his teammates head out for work on the field that he can’t join.

The first two weeks after he had surgery following the Sept. 25th injury scared Britt, he said. Trainers wanted him to bend the knee at least 115 degrees. And he wasn’t able to go past 80.

“That worried me,” he said. “It was tough progress. Now we’re going downhill, and I am happy about that. Cutting and acceleration and things like that, they’re doing all right … Hopefully I will be back and ready to go.”

Tennessee drafted Baylor receiver Kendall Wright 20th overall, and his presence will help assure that Britt doesn’t have to try to do more than he should, sooner than he should.

Britt is a big fan of his new teammate.

“He’s running his routes,” Britt said. “I love how he separates and everything. We’ve got guys who can’t do it, some guys that could do it, but what he brings to the table is routes. There are a lot of guys out there that can’t cover his routes.”

As for some dumb stuff Britt’s done that landed him in off-field trouble, he sounded like a guy who’s maturing and will be staying out of headlines for things not involving football.

“I don’t want to waste my talent,” he said.

INDIANAPOLIS -- In Kendall Wright, the Titans add an explosive receiver who can go deep and should be a help to quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker.

Kenny Britt is still recovering from a torn ACL. But even before he’s healthy, I don’t hesitate to call Britt, Nate Washington, Wright, Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins the best group of receivers the Titans have had since relocating to Tennessee in 1997.

I’ve written tonight about how the Colts have an obligation after adding Andrew Luck to give him weapons to work with.

This pick by Tennessee suggests the Titans feel a similar obligation to Locker, the quarterback they picked eighth overall a year ago.

In 2011, Washington blossomed in a way I figured was not possible for a seventh-year man. Some of that came from his willingness to embrace an opportunity to work out of the slot when the Titans went three-wide.

Going forward they will have some options as to where to line people up when three receivers are on the field. And it should be more often than ever since the run-and-shoot days of the Oilers.

Wright should be a home run hitter.

And a Britt-Wright pairing should give the Titans a duo that can pull them further in line with the mindset of today’s winning NFL formula, where things center a lot more on throwing it than running it.

It’s easy to look at the Titans’ depth chart and circle defensive end Derrick Morgan or center Eugene Amano as players who head into 2012 under pressure.

But Morgan got some pressure alleviated by the arrival of free agent Kamerion Wimbley and there is still likely a defensive end coming in the draft. And I’m not convinced Amano will remain in the starting lineup.

So the easier, more obvious, choice for the Titans in this week's look at AFC South players under pressure is running back Chris Johnson.

He can say his numbers -- 262 carries for 1,047 yards -- didn’t turn out to be awful in 2011. He can say he’s lost no speed. He can say he ran hard.

But saying it doesn’t make any of it true.

In the open field, I think he’s still a blazer. But if he folds up into the fetal position as he did too often last season, he’ll give himself few chances to get into the open field. The sea won't part for him all the time, and he will have to find more ways to break into the second level.

I expect at least one more move by the Titans on the interior line, and if both Amano and Leroy Harris, who is heading to right guard, remain in the starting lineup they will have improved enough to hold off some level of challenge.

That should help Johnson, as should the return of Kenny Britt, the Titans’ most dangerous downfield receiver.

Johnson had a bad year, and it came after getting the contract extension for which he held out.

Now he will be part of the team’s offseason work for the first time. He’s always spent offseasons in Orlando, and said he couldn’t understand objections over it based on his production. Last year there was no offseason to be part of.

Now, if he’s not at 30 of 36 workouts, he’ll take a $250,000 cut in his 2012 salary.

While I understand frustrated fans who are ready to call him done, one bad year was simply not a big enough sample size to give up on him.

He’s a proud guy. He loved hearing how he won people their fantasy leagues and was underpaid. He’s got to hate hearing now about how people wasted their No. 1 pick on him and how he’s overpaid. I expect that to motivate him.

I can’t say for sure that he’ll be better, but I’d be surprised if the Titans cannot get more out of him given a full offseason to evaluate and fix their run-game issues.

And he has to know a second down year will prompt the team to seriously consider dropping him before another piece of that new contract becomes guaranteed.

The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers showed interest in former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck last offseason.

What might happen if Hasselbeck hits the market again in 2012?

The question comes to mind while Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams makes a strong push for quarterback Peyton Manning.

Adams' interest, expressed emphatically over the weekend, initially seemed like bluster. But with Manning and the Titans meeting Wednesday, there's at least a chance. Manning would get to face his former team, Indianapolis, and the happy-with-Matt Schaub Houston Texans two times apiece per season.

If Manning lands in Tennessee, the Titans would proceed with 2011 first-round choice Jake Locker as their backup and projected future starter. Hasselbeck would be out.

The Cardinals could make room for Hasselbeck by declining to pay a $7 million bonus due to Kevin Kolb by Friday. We're dealing in the hypothetical at this point, but so are the teams. As much as the Cardinals want Manning, they must prepare alternate strategies. They could have a choice between Kolb and Hasselbeck if Manning landed in Tennessee. Hasselbeck would upgrade the position on the field, in my view, while giving the Cardinals a veteran mentor for Skelton.

Hasselbeck ranked about the same as Kolb in NFL passer rating last season, but much higher in Total QBR. Hasselbeck suffered from losing top receiver Kenny Britt to a season-ending injury. The Cardinals would presumably welcome his ability to make quick decisions, a problem area for Arizona last season.

Quite a few NFC West watchers have also asked whether Kolb might land in Seattle if the Cardinals released him. My sense is that Seattle could be in the market for a range of quarterbacks at sub-starter prices. Matt Flynn and Chad Henne are visiting this week. Kolb would present another option if the Cardinals parted with him.

Manning would be the only available quarterback Seattle would pay starting money this offseason, in my view. Previous reports have suggested the Seahawks were not in contention. The latest news story from ESPN's Chris Mortensen offers at last some hope even though Seattle does not appear to be under consideration at this time.

"Manning has not eliminated any of the teams with which he has previously met -- the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, or Miami Dolphins, nor has he closed the door on possibly meeting with other teams," the story says.

As for the 49ers, they appear most likely to re-sign Alex Smith. Hasselbeck would be an obvious alternative for them if he became available and Smith's situation with the 49ers changed.

Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network said it first -- the Titans have a foot in the door with Peyton Manning.

Then our Chris Mortensen just tweeted:

“Peyton Manning will meet w Dolphins coach Joe Philbin & Titans coach Mike Munchak during next 3 days, scheduled away from team facilities.”

We’ve arrived, then, at Munchak’s biggest moment in his little over a year as coach of the Titans.

In 2010, he won over Matt Hasselbeck with relative ease.

Little did we know that he would be building off of that sales pitch to one less than a year later for an all-time great.

Munchak is a Hall of Fame player, an up-and-coming coach and an intelligent businessman. He can sell.

Can he outsell John Elway?

Munchak doesn’t have Elway’s personality or Super Bowls, but I think he’s got a shot.

He’s got an offensive coordinator in Chris Palmer who worked with Manning’s brother, Eli, as quarterback coach for the Giants when they beat the Patriots the first time for a Lombardi Trophy.

He’s got a line that might be the best pass protection line Manning’s ever played behind.

He’s got Kenny Britt getting healthy. He’s got a No. 2 receiver in Nate Washington, who got way better when they upgraded to Hasselbeck.

He’s got a dynamic tight end in Jared Cook who finished strong.

He’s got Chris Johnson looking to rebound, who could really benefit from a leap from the passing game.

So long as Munchak can explain how GM Ruston Webster, who was disinclined to chase Manning, has come to terms with Bud Adams’ mandate to go get him, he’s got enough to make a compelling case.

The last time Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams forced a quarterback on his brain trust, things didn’t pan out so well.

“VY is my guy,” wound up causing all sorts of acrimony in team headquarters as Vince Young's tenure was an overall failure.

But Adams’ declaration Sunday to Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean that he wants Peyton Manning — despite team brass indicating strongly it wouldn’t pursue him — could be an entirely different story.

Adams said he’s spoken with Manning’s agent, Tom Condon, to make his intentions clear. Team president Mike Reinfeldt and general manager Mike Webster will surely now do all they can to help execute their boss’ wishes.

“He is the man I want. Period,” Adams said. “And the people that work for me understand that. They know who I want. I want Mr. Manning with the Titans and I will be disappointed if it doesn’t happen.”

Adams indicated no decision on if a visit’s been made, but seems to believe Manning is willing to listen provided he believes Reinfeldt and Webster are in line with the owners’ desires.

Those extend beyond Manning’s playing days.

“I want him to be with me the rest of his working period of his life,” Adams said, “even when he doesn’t want to play anymore.”

There has long been speculation in Tennessee that Manning could be involved in Titans’ management or even ownership in the years to come, in large part because while succession plans are in place for the aging Adams, there is no one in his family lined up to take over his role. His grandson works in the front office, but isn’t too long out of college.

So, are the Titans the mystery team many suggested would emerge in the Manning sweepstakes?

It seems like.

The team isn’t too far away from being good.

And there are reasons Manning would consider it: Coach Mike Munchak and offensive coordinator Chris Palmer are flexible types who would be easy to work with. Pass protection was excellent for Matt Hasselbeck last season. Running back Chris Johnson has rebounding to do but would benefit from an improved passing game. A healthy Kenny Britt could be a big threat for Manning. Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Damian Williams could make for a pretty good core of options to throw to.

The defense is a work in progress, but if the Titans can find one special pass-rusher, it could be primed to make a significant jump.

Would Manning be averse to two games a year against the Colts? I don’t think he’d mind taking on his old team. But considering the feelings he expressed for Indianapolis and its fans, the idea of going back regularly to play as a guest in Lucas Oil Stadium could factor in and hurt Adams’ bid.

One other thing to consider here: With Denver and Arizona emerging as favorites for Manning’s services, just when did Adams make his feelings known to Condon? If it was days ago, OK, they could be in it. If he was late, things could have been far enough along that the Titans have a minimal chance. Maybe Adams knows he can’t get Manning, but realizes he can curry favor with his team’s fans by coming out and saying he wants him. When Manning winds up playing for someone else, the Titans can say they tried.

What if they try and succeed?

With a healthy Manning in place, the Titans could certainly challenge the Texans for AFC South supremacy and leave a bunch of teams like the Broncos, Cardinals and Dolphins scrambling for quarterback answers. One of them would likely wind up with Hasselbeck.

The Colts' release of Peyton Manning will leave a huge void in our division.

Without him in the AFC South, how does a star system that’s revolved around him for some time now align?

We’ll make two large presumptions here -- Mario Williams will be out of the division and Andrew Luck will be in it.

Here’s my order, with comments from Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.:

1. Arian Foster, Texans running back.

Production: An average of 88.5 yards rushing and 126 total yards per game, with 33 touchdowns in 35 games. That’s tremendous. Last season in the Texans' second playoff game he ran for 132 yards against a highly touted Ravens defense in Baltimore.

Personality: He’s a complex, smart guy whose interests extend well beyond football. And that’s a model a lot more people in the league should follow. He’s been the most underpaid player in the league over the past two seasons, and rather than gripe about it he offered context, showed patience and just got rewarded with a five-year contract.

Popularity: It’s giant and growing in Houston and nationally. He tweets with fans. And he's unafraid to take on big topics in social media, like his perspective on fantasy football or sharing an injury X-ray.

Williamson: “Perfect piece for this running game -- with [Adrian] Peterson injured, could be the top running back in all of football. Very versatile. GREAT all-around player on the best team in division.”

2. Andre Johnson, Texans receiver

Production: In 122 career games, he’s averaged 79 receiving yards a game and 13.7 yards a catch. He’s scored 52 touchdowns and led the NFL twice in receptions and twice in yardage while earning a spot on the All-Pro first team twice. He is a willing and effective blocker who combines size and speed.

Personality: Has done a good deal to help take the diva out of the receiver position, a trend that had reached some epic proportions. Soft spoken but strong willed, he’s shown himself to be accountable. A rock and a leader for a team that took too long to surround him with playoff talent.

Popularity: He’s absolutely beloved in Houston and qualifies as the all-time face of the young franchise. For a star of his size, he seems accessible and approachable, and appreciative that people want access and approachability.

Williamson: “With the body of work, he’s not far removed from being the best wide receiver in the NFL. He easily could rebound from injury to regain such status.”

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars running back

Production: Despite facing stacked boxes throughout his career, Jones-Drew has plowed for 73.7 yards a game and 4.6 yards a carry. He’s also been a solid receiver with at least 34 catches a season. In 93 games, he’s scored 73 touchdowns.

Personality: He’s a fun guy who’s well liked by team executives, coaches and teammates. But he can be defensive and take things way too personally. He maintains a list of reporters whom he feels slighted him, which is a bit over the top for a star of his magnitude.

Popularity: Very much the face of the franchise -- many would say too much so. He’s an affable guy who’s very well liked in Jacksonville and has built a national profile thanks largely to his fantasy football production and a regular gig on Sirius NFL Radio centered on the fantasy game.

Williamson: “No running back had a better 2011 season than MJD. He does it all with ZERO around him. A pro’s pro.”

4. Andrew Luck, presumed Colts quarterback

Production: In three seasons as the starter at Stanford, he completed 67 percent of his passes with 82 touchdowns and 22 interceptions despite not being surrounded by great weapons. His football IQ and accuracy are factors that make him such a big-time prospect. He’s underrated as an athlete who can run and jump and do a lot of things that may not be primary skills for a pocket passer but will be big factors in a well-rounded game.

Personality: He seems like a nice enough guy and is close to an engineering degree from Stanford, which tells you he’s quite smart. He stayed in school for his senior year, which showed confidence that he would be better positioned coming out after another year of school. It also suggested some perspective on football.

Popularity: He’s a huge star coming out being so strongly the consensus No. 1 pick. He has a regular-guy demeanor that will serve him well as he inherits Manning’s spot with the Colts. It may come a bit more slowly than most No. 1 picks because of that context, but if he plays as predicted, it’ll come.

Williamson: “It is all about the future/potential/hope ... and that is a terrific story. Of course, following in Manning’s footsteps factors in as well. An exceptional and rare prospect.”

5. Chris Johnson, Titans running back

Production: It dropped off in a major way last season after he got the big contract extension he was looking for. Even with a down year, he’s averaged 89.6 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards a carry and he’s scored 42 touchdowns in 63 games. Does he have the same speed he showed in his first three seasons?

Personality: In a word, brash. He’s made big predictions and the down year hasn’t stopped that. He recently tweeted that he will lead the league in rushing next season. Some view him as selfish -- and it’s a fair idea to examine as his effort was questionable at times. You won’t find a more confident guy, and he may like the star life a little bit too much.

Popularity: He was huge when he topped 2,000 rushing yards in 2009, and with 12 touchdowns in 2010 he was still one of the league’s top backs. But Titans fans (and fantasy owners who drafted him at or near the top) loved him less as Tennessee didn’t run nearly as effectively as usual in 2011.

Williamson: “We have certainly seen what a difference-maker Johnson can be. And actually, I expect his situation to improve a great deal next season with an improved interior offensive line and getting Kenny Britt back in the lineup, but there were just too many runs in 2011 where Johnson lacked competitiveness.”

Two notes:

• I struggled to choose between Johnson and Houston linebacker Brian Cushing for the last spot. But it’s hard for a defensive player to outrank a guy who has the ball all the time. And fair or not, Cushing has a dent in his national reputation because of his four-game suspension in 2010.
• Williamson said Britt and Titans quarterback Jake Locker could press for inclusion soon and I agree. For Britt it’s about health; For Locker it’s about opportunity and production.

Facebook friend Jonathan makes a simple request of the San Francisco 49ers: get Mike Wallace.

"How valuable could the 30th pick be?" he asks.

This is the most enticing argument for chasing after a young, talented restricted free agent such as Wallace, who might qualify as the best deep-threat receiver in the NFL. NFC West fans might remember Wallace's 95-yard touchdown reception against Arizona last season, or his 53-yard reception against Seattle, or his 46-yarder against St. Louis.

Wallace would give the 49ers the deep-threat wideout their rotation has been lacking.

A few considerations:

• Price: The 49ers would have to pay Wallace enough for two things to happen. One, Wallace would have to sign an offer sheet, forcing the 49ers to outbid any other suitors. Two, the deal would need to be structured so that Pittsburgh would not match it. The 49ers would then have to send their first-round choice, 30th overall, to the Steelers.
• Fit: The 49ers have carefully identified which players in their locker room to hold up as leaders. Patrick Willis, Joe Staley and Vernon Davis have gotten lucrative long-term deals. Justin Smith and Frank Gore have also been highly paid. Smith is the perfect example of a free agent from another team who was worth the investment. The 49ers would have to feel good about how Wallace would react to a payday. Signing him affects dynamics at the position, putting Wallace over Michael Crabtree and the other receivers.
• The pick: It's easy to discount the value of that 30th choice because so many draft choices fail to pan out. But that is why teams employ personnel departments. The 2009 first round was largely disappointing, but the Green Bay Packers nonetheless landed B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews. Tennessee stood pat at No. 30 and drafted Kenny Britt, who averaged 17.5 yards per reception with 15 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending knee injury early last season. Niner fans will point to the 2004 draft, when San Francisco took receiver Rashaun Woods at No. 31. But a look at receivers drafted from the 28th through 32nd picks since 2001 shows Woods was more exception than rule. Hakeem Nicks, Britt, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez, Michael Jenkins and Reggie Wayne were the other receivers in that group.
• The offense: Would the 49ers maximize their investment in a deep-threat receiver? Would Wallace open up their offense, taking them to another level? Or would the nature of the 49ers' approach and potential limitations at quarterback leave us wondering why Wallace's production had failed to carry over?

I'd have a hard time criticizing the 49ers if they made a strong play for Wallace. They need help at the position. Wallace is only 25 years old. Wallace is established and ascending.

It's true that receivers often disappoint, but very few in Wallace's position hit the market. The new labor agreement gives the best restricted free agents more freedom. This would seem to be a relatively low-risk proposition for the 49ers as long as Wallace's personality and work ethic checked out.

Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle recently wrote that if Peyton Manning is available, the Texans should be at the head of the line.

Sorry, Matt Schaub. Thanks for your service.

Schaub might be a solid quarterback, but a healthy Manning is more than solid. He is an all-time great.

No one knows if we are if we are talking about a healthy Manning, and he’d come with more risk of suffering another neck injury. Presuming he’s OK, in my view, you can look at all but six teams in the league and say the same thing Solomon is saying about the Texans. Simply insert the name of 25 other presumed starting quarterbacks in the Schaub slot in the above passage and it is intriguing.

Most teams aren’t big on scrapping long-range plans.

But most teams should be willing to change course given a chance at an all-time great quarterback in the rare instance when adding him is feasible and it would open a window during which they’d rank as a Super Bowl contender.

Much has been written about the teams most likely to court Manning the hardest: the Jets, Dolphins, Redskins and Cardinals top most lists.

Much has been said about an ideal fit: Add him to San Francisco, shore up the receivers and the Niners would be a Super Bowl favorite.

Let’s look at the scenario dreaming fans of the other three AFC South fans may be letting creep into their brains:

Houston

As Solomon writes, “Once Manning is let go he should be as interested in the Texans as they would be in him. There might not be a better fit for him in the NFL.”

The Texans could dominate a weak division. Gary Kubiak is a great offensive mind. Manning would be paired with an excellent run game and a fantastic receiver in Andre Johnson. The defense should continue to be quite good.

My feeling: It’s nice to imagine, but I just can’t picture the Texans going after him with the all-out sales pitch he’s likely to get from a lot of other places. They feel they now have good insurance for Schaub with T.J. Yates. But if you boil down the best option, it’s be Manning. Cap room would be an issue.

Jacksonville

New owner Shahid Khan has said he’s willing to spend and there is not a move that could make a bigger splash.

The Jaguars have excellent defensive personnel and if they add a rush end and re-stock at corner, they’ll be a top defense. They have the reigning rushing champ.

Their quarterback was horrible as a rookie. Put Blaine Gabbert behind Manning, acquire two or three receivers for him to throw to and the Jaguars would be instant contenders more than able to challenge the Texans.

My feeling: It makes sense and the Jaguars should take a swing even though it falls well outside their typical approach under general manager Gene Smith. I don’t imagine it’s the most attractive market for Manning, though he could really help put it, and Khan, on the map.

Tennessee

It won’t be long before those who still love Manning for what he did at the University of Tennessee clamor for him to finish his career with the Titans. It would mean the Titans part with Matt Hasselbeck and that Jake Locker would be planted on the bench longer than was the initial plan.

But put Manning on this team, with a great pass-protecting line, a healthy Kenny Britt, a stable of targets including Jared Cook, Nate Washington and Chris Johnson and the offense is instantly more dangerous.

My feeling: It’s too far outside the box for new general manager Ruston Webster to try it. But if owner Bud Adams fell in love with the idea and dictated that it happen, it would be a far better idea than the last time he forced a quarterback on his people.

We’ll wait until next week to start building the All-AFC South Team, and you’ll have a big chance to offer input there.

This week we’ll pass out hardware for individual awards.

Drum roll please:

Player of the year: Johnathan Joseph, Texans cornerback. Runner up: Brian Cushing, Texans inside linebacker.

Joseph, Cushing and Antonio Smith were the players I sorted through here, and you can make a case for any of them. While the Texans were a better defense at every level, it was the secondary that had the biggest room for improvement. Joseph’s ability to match up with a team’s best receiver eased the pressure on everyone else in the secondary and helped transform a miserable pass defense into an excellent one. In the Texans’ playoff loss in Baltimore he blanketed Ravens receiver Torrey Smith, rendering him a non-factor.

Offensive player of the year: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars running back. Runner up: Arian Foster, Texans running back.

It’s hard to fathom that Jones-Drew was the NFL rushing champ considering that defenses could regularly key on him without fear of any real threat from the passing offense, which ranked dead last in the NFL. He showed no signs of wearing down and averaged 100 yards a game. It felt like a waste on a five-win team. Foster missed some action early with hamstring issues or he would have likely challenged Jones-Drew in rushing yards. He’s a tremendous combination of power and speed and does excellent work as a pass catcher.

Rookie of the year: J.J. Watt, Texans defensive end. Runner up: Brooks Reed, Texans outside linebacker.

Watt was installed as a starter the moment the Texans drafted him and was an impactful player from his first snap. A relentless player, he was a force against the run and the pass and played beautifully in concert with the rest of the defensive front. His ability to get his hands on balls at the line of scrimmage turned into a monumental interception return for a touchdown in the playoff win over Cincinnati. Reed filled in very well after Mario Williams was lost for the season and may actually help the team decide Williams is expendable.

Best assistant coach: Wade Phillips, Texans defensive coordinator. Runner up, Mel Tucker, Jaguars defensive coordinator.

Phillips was a factor in the personnel decisions that brought Joseph, Danieal Manning, Watt and Reed into the fold for Houston. In his first year as defensive coordinator, he injected a huge dose of confidence into the Texans defenders and wisely drew up schemes that featured guys’ strengths and marked their weaknesses. The sort of turnaround the defense made in one year is practically unheard of. In Jacksonville, Tucker was given a huge boost with new personnel, but as he took over play-calling from Jack Del Rio, he excelled.

Best position coach: Dave Ragone, Titans receivers coach. Runner up, Vance Joseph, Texans secondary coach.

Ragone had no experience working with receivers coming into this job, but did fantastic work. He deserves a great deal of credit for the vast improvement and maturation of Nate Washington and the emergence of Damian Williams as a threat and Lavelle Hawkins as a guy who did some good things with the ball in his hands. In his first season with the Texans, Joseph helped some guys regain confidence while overseeing a successful move of Glover Quin from corner to strong safety.

Executive of the year: Rick Smith, Texans general manager.

He had lots of help, but completely nailed free agency, signing Joseph and Manning rather than Nnamdi Asomugha. And the top of the draft was fantastic, with Watt and Reed. As Houston suffered injuries at running back, receiver, linebacker and even punter, the Texans showed good depth and an ability to fill in holes with quality outsiders.

Best unit: Texans offensive line. Runner up: Texans linebackers.

Led by center Chris Myers, who may be the division’s most unsung player, Houston’s offensive line blocked consistently well for the run game and protected three different quarterbacks well. Left tackle Duane Brown and right tackle Eric Winston both earned mentions on various All-Pro teams. Antoine Caldwell filled in nicely when Mike Brisiel missed time at right guard. The Texans linebackers, even without Mario Williams, did spectacular, work stuffing the run and swarming quarterbacks all season long.

Worst unit: Jaguars receivers. Runner up: Colts cornerbacks.

Mike Thomas might be a No. 2 receiver and can certainly be a good No. 3, though his play in 2011 dropped off after he got a contract extension. But Jason Hill, who started as the No. 2 guy, wound up getting cut and guys like Jarett Dillard, rookie Cecil Shorts, Chastin West and Kassim Osgood did little to show they were NFL-caliber guys. Blaine Gabbert suffered the consequences. The Colts were insufficiently stocked at corner, though Jacob Lacey bounced back well late in the season after he was benched.

Most improved: Nate Washington, Titans receiver. Runner up: Connor Barwin, Texans outside linebacker.

Washington’s maturation was remarkable. An excitable guy really calmed down and settled in working under offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and Ragone and with Matt Hasselbeck. Washington figured to be better with those guys while working as the No. 2 behind Kenny Britt, but Britt was lost for the season early on and Washington wound up with a 1,000-yard season and seven touchdowns. I give him the nod because I didn’t believe he had untapped upside. That was not the case with Barwin, who the Texans have expected to be a pass-rushing force since they drafted him in 2009.

Most disappointing: Chris Johnson, Titans running back. Runner up: Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars tight end.

I don’t care what sort of defenses are offered up for Johnson. He simply did not run as hard after coming out of a holdout with a giant new contract. There were other issues, but too often he appeared to lack fire and desire. In the rare instances he wound up in a one-on-one situation he was hardly the threat he’s been in the past. If he doesn’t bounce back in 2012, the contract will turn out to be disastrous. Lewis was supposed to be transformed by his MMA training during the lockout. If it impacted him, it made him worse. Expecting another 10 touchdowns was unreasonable. Producing none was unacceptable.

Best position revamp: TIE, Jaguars safeties and Texans safeties.

Both teams were terrible at the position a year ago and despite a draft class that was incredibly thin, reshaped the spot with great results. The Texans shifted Quin from cornerback and he was very solid alongside free-agent addition Manning. The Jaguars signed Dawan Landry from Baltimore and traded for Dwight Lowery, shifting a guy who’d played mostly corner to play with Landry. Applause to both teams for fine work addressing a trouble position.

Surprise of the year: T.J. Yates, Texans quarterback.

The finish in the playoff loss to Baltimore was a big disappointment. But Yates took over a good team when Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart went down in quick succession and played beyond what could reasonably be expected from a fifth-round rookie quarterback.

Colt of the year: Pat Angerer, middle linebacker.

As Indianapolis was not mentioned here at all, we create this category for the Colts. Angerer showed himself to be a quality starter who has to be in the lineup going forward. That may mean the end of Gary Brackett, the veteran middle linebacker who was hurt in Week 1 and missed the season. Angerer is a rangy, instinctive player who’s sure to impress new general manager Ryan Grigson.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. The Houston Texans' confidence: They will say otherwise, but coming off of two bad losses the Texans have to be wondering about themselves. They got pushed around by Carolina, and their vaunted defense fell apart in the final minutes, allowing the Colts to drive to a game-winning touchdown. I was among those questioning this team’s mental makeup coming into the season. I thought they’d answered that question resoundingly as they ran away with the division. Is it creeping back in now?

2. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ dealings with tight ends: Marcedes Lewis will be a headliner on the AFC South All Disappointment Team, and if not for Chris Johnson, he’d be the captain. Saturday in Nashville, he pulled up on one ball across the middle for fear of a hit from notorious thumper Michael Griffin, the Titans safety (#sarcasm). On the other end, the defense let Tennessee’s Jared Cook run wild. The coverage call on Cook’s 55-yard touchdown pass that sent the safeties wide and left middle linebacker Paul Posluszny covering Cook deep down the middle was disastrous.

3. The Houston Texans’ third-down offense: On last week’s list, it was third-down defense. The Colts allowed them just one conversion in 10 chances, and that one came on a pass that bounced off Antoine Bethea twice. This team can win with games centered on defense and the run game. But if the offense can’t convert third downs and stay on the field for some extended drives, the strain on those two areas becomes too much and the margin of error shrivels.

RISING

1. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver: He talked leading up to the Colts' home finale about wanting to go out with a bang in case it turned out to be his last game as a Colt at Lucas Oil Stadium. I saw one early route where I thought his effort was questionable. But he sure cranked it up as Dan Orlovsky threw his direction 14 times. He pulled in eight receptions for 106 yards and cradled the game-winning touchdown after a 1-yard catch that provided the winning margin for Indianapolis in its second consecutive win. He’s heading toward free agency and it’s clear he can still produce. How much longer is the question.

2. The Tennessee Titans’ discipline: Mike Munchak has preached discipline from his first day as the Titans coach. Saturday, when he didn’t get a postgame question about a penalty-free performance, he didn’t leave the podium before jokingly pointing it out. It was the first time the franchise didn’t draw a flag in a game since 1972. Meanwhile the Titans benefited from six calls against the Jaguars that gave Tennessee 28 yards and three first downs.

3. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans tight end: Following the best game for a tight end in franchise history -- 169 yards -- he’s in range of the franchise record for tight end receiving yards in a season. He’s a receiver-like threat who I believe has been under-used by offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck since Kenny Britt went down early in the season. Cook killed the Titans with a lost fumble in the loss at Indianapolis. The effort against the Jaguars was an excellent rebound. The Titans need to find ways to get him the ball Sunday at Reliant Stadium.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- When Kenny Britt got hurt and the Titans added only Donnie Avery to their group of receivers, some fans were in a panic. They had to sign Terrell Owens, they argued, or trade for Brandon Lloyd. They had to find immediate help.

But like most teams do given such circumstances, the Titans took the patient approach. They drafted Damian Williams out of USC in the third round in 2010. They said they thought he could grow so much that he might one day be a No. 1 receiver.

They certainly didn’t hope he’d be cast in that role now, but here he is.

He has a way to go, but he’s caught a touchdown two weeks in a row and is coming off a breakout game in the win in Carolina, where he turned five catches into 107 yards, breaking the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career.

He’s shown an ability to go up and get the ball and get his feet down as he’s hit. And he’s shown the ability to evade a tackler and run after the catch.

“I think every week you are seeing a guy get better and better,” coach Mike Munchak said. “It’s confidence, it’s the opportunities he is getting. He is making the tough catch like you mentioned last week. He has caught quite a few on the sidelines now and those were some great catches for us. And when you see guys doing that, the quarterback gets more confident to throw the tough throw to him because he is going to go ahead and find a way to make that play. It’s great to see for us.

“He had some drops earlier in the year on some tough catches, but he did a good job of putting that behind him and moving forward and we need him to him to play big as we do other guys if we are going to make a run at this thing here in the last seven weeks.”

One point about Williams’ less-than-speedy development: He wasn’t working with Hasselbeck from the very beginning in training camp.

The team wasted time when Justin Gage was higher in the receiver rotation before it woke up to the fact that Gage wasn’t going to help. (Gage did drop down the preseason depth chart and was cut when rosters were trimmed.) That’s work that could have helped Williams earlier on. But that only partially explains why he’s not been better, faster.

If you don’t have players the caliber of A.J. Green or Julio Jones, the odds of getting a quick contribution from a wide receiver are typically low. If you are a player who stands to benefit from playing with Britt, but then Britt and the attention he draws disappear, things get more difficult.

“Damian has shown that he can make some plays and he’s scored some touchdowns,” quarterback Matt Hasselbeck told The Wake Up Zone on 104.5 FM in Nashville earlier this week. “He’s becoming a guy we can depend on, which is important for us.”

Williams said he and offensive coordinator Chris Palmer had a talk after the Titans' Oct. 9 loss at Pittsburgh.

“His biggest point to me is he told me, he sees more in me than I do,” Williams said. “Whether that’s true or not I don’t know, but that just lets you know he expects a whole lot from me. He probably expects as much from me as I expect from myself.”

During that loss at Heinz Field, Williams told Palmer he could beat a defender deep. Palmer responded by calling for a deep ball.

“And he's got it on cruise control, which really gets my blood pressure up,” Palmer said the week after that game. “ I told him if I die, I told my wife to sue you because you gave me a heart attack. He got the message and the one he caught for a touchdown is the type of play we expect from him.”

Those exchanges with Williams seemed to spark something.

The challenge for Williams now is maintaining what he’s been doing. From there, he needs to show he’s completely comfortable, where we don’t see any uncertainty out of him and miscommunications with Hasselbeck are minimized.

I think Williams is more self-aware than most of the receivers the Titans have brought in over the years, and that should give them some hope. Still, receivers have been passing through Nashville for years who’ve flashed and faded, and we always need to remember that context.