NFL Nation: Kevin Kolb
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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:
Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia last offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.
Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.
The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.
Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.
Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame Game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.
By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.
For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:
Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia last offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.
Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.
The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.
Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.
Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame Game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.
By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.
For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.
SeattleAztec from San Diego asks whether Matt Flynn might be the "most developed" quarterback in the NFC West after learning from Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.
"Alex Smith and Sam Bradford seem to be the least developed with having multiple offensive coordinators and no great vets to learn behind," he writes. "Kevin Kolb had a good upbringing in Philadelphia and Arizona has shown an ability to handle QBs, but Flynn had the benefit of learning in the Green Bay system. Learning behind Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy will give him an advantage, assuming he wins the starting job. Thoughts?"
Mike Sando: Flynn's background with McCarthy and the Packers appealed to the Seahawks. McCarthy, with nothing more than a compensatory draft choice to gain from advocating for Flynn in free agency, gave glowing reviews in conversations with the Seahawks. Those conversations appear more credible based on Seahawks general manager John Schneider's long association and friendship with McCarthy.
"We really respect the job that they’ve done with their offense and their quarterbacking and Matt is a beneficiary of that, so therefore we are also," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said after signing Flynn in March. "His process to learn as Aaron Rodgers has learned has really been helpful to him. There are a lot of similarities in their style of movement and decision-making, play and conscience that I think helps us."
That doesn't necessarily mean Flynn will be the "most developed" quarterback in the division. A few thoughts on what the other NFC West quarterbacks have going for them:
Circling back to the original question, we could make a case that Flynn should be the most developed quarterback in the division.
Other factors go into success, of course. Bradford and Smith were No. 1 overall choices, indicating that teams thought they were more talented than Flynn, a seventh-rounder who drew moderate interest in free agency this offseason. And if the Seahawks were convinced Flynn were the answer, they would have had less reason to use a third-round choice for a quarterback after signing Flynn.
I do think Flynn's background with the Packers was crucial for the Seahawks. Schneider's first-hand knowledge of Green Bay's quarterback training techniques was a factor.
"Alex Smith and Sam Bradford seem to be the least developed with having multiple offensive coordinators and no great vets to learn behind," he writes. "Kevin Kolb had a good upbringing in Philadelphia and Arizona has shown an ability to handle QBs, but Flynn had the benefit of learning in the Green Bay system. Learning behind Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy will give him an advantage, assuming he wins the starting job. Thoughts?"
Mike Sando: Flynn's background with McCarthy and the Packers appealed to the Seahawks. McCarthy, with nothing more than a compensatory draft choice to gain from advocating for Flynn in free agency, gave glowing reviews in conversations with the Seahawks. Those conversations appear more credible based on Seahawks general manager John Schneider's long association and friendship with McCarthy.
"We really respect the job that they’ve done with their offense and their quarterbacking and Matt is a beneficiary of that, so therefore we are also," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said after signing Flynn in March. "His process to learn as Aaron Rodgers has learned has really been helpful to him. There are a lot of similarities in their style of movement and decision-making, play and conscience that I think helps us."
That doesn't necessarily mean Flynn will be the "most developed" quarterback in the division. A few thoughts on what the other NFC West quarterbacks have going for them:
- Smith (49ers): Jim Harbaugh should know the position better than any head coach in the division. Smith has more experience than any quarterback in the division. Harbaugh and Smith meshed well last season. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman and quarterbacks coach Geep Chryst round out what looks like a solid support group. Smith has finally had time this offseason to work on his mechanics. He's getting a second season in the offense. Spending one season with McCarthy and a second with Norv Turner probably counts for something, too, despite the passage of time.
- Kolb (Cardinals): Kolb did not practice with the Cardinals until 38 days before the 2011 opener. That made it tough for Kolb to learn a new system and settle into the role. Injuries derailed Kolb once he finally did get experience in the system. The Cardinals fired quarterbacks coach Chris Miller and promoted receivers coach John McNulty to the position. Arizona valued McNulty enough to block Tampa Bay from pursuing him as its offensive coordinator. The team's new receivers coach, Frank Reich, was an NFL quarterback for 14 seasons. What does it all mean? It's a little early to tell.
- Bradford (Rams): New coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was with Mark Sanchez previously. One line of thinking says Schottenheimer led Sanchez as far as Sanchez could go, then took the fall when Sanchez failed to carry more of the offensive load. Another line of thinking says Schottenheimer couldn't get Sanchez past a certain point. Bradford is on his third coordinator in as many seasons. The Rams went through 2011 without a quarterbacks coach. The new quarterbacks coach, Frank Cignetti, coached the 49ers' Smith under coordinator Jim Hostler in 2007. That was one of the worst offensive seasons in 49ers history. Hostler took the blame. It's tough to fault Cignetti in that context, but also tough to offer a strong endorsement without seeing results.
Circling back to the original question, we could make a case that Flynn should be the most developed quarterback in the division.
Other factors go into success, of course. Bradford and Smith were No. 1 overall choices, indicating that teams thought they were more talented than Flynn, a seventh-rounder who drew moderate interest in free agency this offseason. And if the Seahawks were convinced Flynn were the answer, they would have had less reason to use a third-round choice for a quarterback after signing Flynn.
I do think Flynn's background with the Packers was crucial for the Seahawks. Schneider's first-hand knowledge of Green Bay's quarterback training techniques was a factor.
» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Arizona Cardinals and why.
The 2012 season should be less challenging for Kevin Kolb than the one that came before it, but Kolb still qualifies for consideration on a varied list of NFC West players with tough roads ahead. Quarterback is a difficult enough position without the added burden of unrealistic expectations. The $12.4 million annual average Arizona paid to Kolb demanded immediate production, and at a high level. Kolb struggled, raising the stakes for 2012.
Kolb should benefit from the added preparation time this offseason affords players in general. Last year, Kolb remained property of the Philadelphia Eagles until late July. Rules prevented him from practicing with his new teammates until Aug. 4. This year, Kolb gets a full offseason to master the offense. The Cardinals also expect Kolb's fundamentals to improve now that the detail-oriented John McNulty has shifted over from receivers coach to handle quarterbacks.
Kolb faces at least three tough challenges.
First, he must hold off John Skelton for the starting job. Skelton faces no pressure as a 2010 fifth-round draft choice earning $490,000 in base salary. Skelton scored points with fans and the team for his role in a few fourth-quarter comeback victories last season. Skelton has also proved durable, which leads into the second challenge for Kolb: staying healthy. Concussions have knocked Kolb from the lineup in Philadelphia (2010) and Arizona (2011).
Finally, Kolb enters what is clearly a make-or-break year for him with no assurances that the Cardinals can protect him adequately. Arizona has questionable pass-protection credentials at both tackle spots. Kolb did not demonstrate much feel for the pocket last season. The Cardinals did add weaponry for Kolb by using a first-round pick for Michael Floyd. Floyd, unlike Kolb, will be given a couple of years to develop.
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Arizona Cardinals and why.
The 2012 season should be less challenging for Kevin Kolb than the one that came before it, but Kolb still qualifies for consideration on a varied list of NFC West players with tough roads ahead. Quarterback is a difficult enough position without the added burden of unrealistic expectations. The $12.4 million annual average Arizona paid to Kolb demanded immediate production, and at a high level. Kolb struggled, raising the stakes for 2012.
Kolb should benefit from the added preparation time this offseason affords players in general. Last year, Kolb remained property of the Philadelphia Eagles until late July. Rules prevented him from practicing with his new teammates until Aug. 4. This year, Kolb gets a full offseason to master the offense. The Cardinals also expect Kolb's fundamentals to improve now that the detail-oriented John McNulty has shifted over from receivers coach to handle quarterbacks.
Kolb faces at least three tough challenges.
First, he must hold off John Skelton for the starting job. Skelton faces no pressure as a 2010 fifth-round draft choice earning $490,000 in base salary. Skelton scored points with fans and the team for his role in a few fourth-quarter comeback victories last season. Skelton has also proved durable, which leads into the second challenge for Kolb: staying healthy. Concussions have knocked Kolb from the lineup in Philadelphia (2010) and Arizona (2011).
Finally, Kolb enters what is clearly a make-or-break year for him with no assurances that the Cardinals can protect him adequately. Arizona has questionable pass-protection credentials at both tackle spots. Kolb did not demonstrate much feel for the pocket last season. The Cardinals did add weaponry for Kolb by using a first-round pick for Michael Floyd. Floyd, unlike Kolb, will be given a couple of years to develop.
The Ravens lose Terrell Suggs, Caveman says the Steelers are getting back to basics, and Kevin Kolb has the upper hand on starting in Arizona.
Player trades aren't as common in the NFL as they are in baseball or some other sports, but the Philadelphia Eagles do seem to be a rare exception. As Zach Berman pointed out in this New York Times story from a week and a half ago, since Howie Roseman became GM 27 months ago the Eagles have made more trades involving players (i.e., not just draft picks) than any other team in the league. (They were tied with Seattle at 15 at the time the story was published, and they traded Asante Samuel a few days later).
Now, on the topic of how the Eagles do with these trades, we turn to Sheil Kapadia, who has broken down the return the Eagles have received on two recent high-profile deals -- the ones that sent quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb out of town.
As Sheil shows, the picks the Eagles got back from McNabb have netted them safety Nate Allen and linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Casey Matthews. That's two projected 2012 defensive starters and a guy, in Matthews, who will get at least some playing time. Not a bad haul for a player it's now clear was basically done at the time of the deal. Yes, McNabb did beat the Eagles once while with the Redskins in 2010, but he hasn't made a significant contribution since he left Philadelphia.
The Kolb trade brought back cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and the picks that produced defensive end Vinny Curry and cornerback Brandon Boykin. Rogers-Cromartie is projected to be a starting cornerback for the 2012 Eagles. Boykin could be the nickel corner and a factor in the return game. Curry is likely to factor into the pass-rush rotation. Not a bad return for a quarterback who would have been their backup in 2011 had they kept him.
When you watch the Eagles' defense in 2012, you should get some idea why it's so important to Andy Reid to be deep at the quarterback position. This is why he drafted Nick Foles this year -- in the hopes that he eventually gets something out of him, whether it's actual playing time for the Eagles or something of value in trade. It's about more than just having good backup options behind starter Michael Vick. It's about how much quarterbacks are worth in today's NFL. By trading two of them over the past three offseasons, the Eagles have helped build their 2012 defense.
Now, on the topic of how the Eagles do with these trades, we turn to Sheil Kapadia, who has broken down the return the Eagles have received on two recent high-profile deals -- the ones that sent quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb out of town.
As Sheil shows, the picks the Eagles got back from McNabb have netted them safety Nate Allen and linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Casey Matthews. That's two projected 2012 defensive starters and a guy, in Matthews, who will get at least some playing time. Not a bad haul for a player it's now clear was basically done at the time of the deal. Yes, McNabb did beat the Eagles once while with the Redskins in 2010, but he hasn't made a significant contribution since he left Philadelphia.
The Kolb trade brought back cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and the picks that produced defensive end Vinny Curry and cornerback Brandon Boykin. Rogers-Cromartie is projected to be a starting cornerback for the 2012 Eagles. Boykin could be the nickel corner and a factor in the return game. Curry is likely to factor into the pass-rush rotation. Not a bad return for a quarterback who would have been their backup in 2011 had they kept him.
When you watch the Eagles' defense in 2012, you should get some idea why it's so important to Andy Reid to be deep at the quarterback position. This is why he drafted Nick Foles this year -- in the hopes that he eventually gets something out of him, whether it's actual playing time for the Eagles or something of value in trade. It's about more than just having good backup options behind starter Michael Vick. It's about how much quarterbacks are worth in today's NFL. By trading two of them over the past three offseasons, the Eagles have helped build their 2012 defense.
First impressions on the Arizona Cardinals' performance in the 2012 NFL draft:
What I liked: The Cardinals appeared to resist reaching to fill needs. The approach left Arizona with a huge need for an offensive tackle heading into the third day, but with no second-round choice entering this draft, the Cardinals lacked flexibility. They stayed patient amid criticism and drew high marks for landing Mississippi tackle Bobby Massie in the fourth round. We don't know whether Massie will become a good player, but we do know some had him rated as a potential second-round choice, and Arizona got him in the fourth.
Question marks: The team's decision to acquire Kevin Kolb last offseason hung over this draft. The Kolb trade gave the Cardinals' second-round choice to Philadelphia, preventing Arizona from seriously considering any of the four offensive tackles teams drafted in the round. Mitchell Schwartz (Cleveland Browns), Jonathan Martin (Miami Dolphins) and Jeff Allen were gone before Arizona would have chosen, but Mike Adams (Pittsburgh Steelers) was still there. Martin and Allen went within four choices of Arizona's slot in the round, close enough for the Cardinals to have considered trading up, had they still possessed the pick.
Trending: Arizona and Tennessee are the only teams to have drafted zero offensive linemen in the first three rounds over the past five drafts. Both teams lean on Hall of Fame guards to coach up the position, but the Cardinals in particular haven't had enough young linemen to develop. That changed in this draft. The Cardinals selected three offensive linemen after drafting zero in any round over the previous two drafts. That's a start, even if the team didn't take one early.
Veteran put on alert: Kolb. The Cardinals used their first-round pick for receiver Michael Floyd. Running back Ryan Williams, a second-round choice last year, will be returning from injury. Arizona drafted Massie to stabilize the line. With five of seven picks going for offense, including one to select a developmental quarterback, it's time for Kolb to produce.
What I liked: The Cardinals appeared to resist reaching to fill needs. The approach left Arizona with a huge need for an offensive tackle heading into the third day, but with no second-round choice entering this draft, the Cardinals lacked flexibility. They stayed patient amid criticism and drew high marks for landing Mississippi tackle Bobby Massie in the fourth round. We don't know whether Massie will become a good player, but we do know some had him rated as a potential second-round choice, and Arizona got him in the fourth.
Question marks: The team's decision to acquire Kevin Kolb last offseason hung over this draft. The Kolb trade gave the Cardinals' second-round choice to Philadelphia, preventing Arizona from seriously considering any of the four offensive tackles teams drafted in the round. Mitchell Schwartz (Cleveland Browns), Jonathan Martin (Miami Dolphins) and Jeff Allen were gone before Arizona would have chosen, but Mike Adams (Pittsburgh Steelers) was still there. Martin and Allen went within four choices of Arizona's slot in the round, close enough for the Cardinals to have considered trading up, had they still possessed the pick.
Trending: Arizona and Tennessee are the only teams to have drafted zero offensive linemen in the first three rounds over the past five drafts. Both teams lean on Hall of Fame guards to coach up the position, but the Cardinals in particular haven't had enough young linemen to develop. That changed in this draft. The Cardinals selected three offensive linemen after drafting zero in any round over the previous two drafts. That's a start, even if the team didn't take one early.
Veteran put on alert: Kolb. The Cardinals used their first-round pick for receiver Michael Floyd. Running back Ryan Williams, a second-round choice last year, will be returning from injury. Arizona drafted Massie to stabilize the line. With five of seven picks going for offense, including one to select a developmental quarterback, it's time for Kolb to produce.
» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South
The shift in NFL disciplinary emphasis from off-field behavior to on-field safety should serve the NFC West well over the coming months.
The division took calculated gambles early and often in the 2012 NFL draft, selecting players with rap sheets as varied as the players' on-field skill sets.
But player safety is trumping player behavior as the prevailing NFL issue these days, and NFC West teams aren't likely to draw much scrutiny for their decisions, at least initially.
Five of the first 10 players NFC West teams selected had, at various times, faced accusations relating to drunken driving (Michael Floyd), robbery (Bruce Irvin), marijuana possession (Janoris Jenkins), attempted strangulation (LaMichael James) and resisting arrest (Trumaine Johnson).
They were not all charged nor convicted. They are not necessarily bad guys, of course. But each carried red flags into the evaluation process. Each represents a heightened risk for his new NFC West team.
What's going on here?
A theory: Pete Carroll, Jeff Fisher and Jim Harbaugh, in particular, are three of the higher-profile, more highly paid coaches in the NFL. Higher-paid coaches tend to have more power (Carroll and Fisher demanded personnel influence as a condition of employment). Coaches also tend to listen to their assistants. They might be more apt to take chances, confident in their ability to manage players.
Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt, also well-compensated and facing a pivotal year at quarterback, has made it clear that he's a believer in drafting with character in mind. He also might need to win his bet on Kevin Kolb, perhaps one reason the Cardinals, having done their homework on Floyd, took the first calculated gamble among NFC West teams.
Arizona made Floyd the second receiver drafted, taking him at No. 13. Irvin went to Seattle two spots later, followed by Jenkins to St. Louis (39th), James to San Francisco (61st) and Johnson to the Rams (65th).
BEST MOVE
The Rams' pre-draft move to trade back four spots from the second overall pick set up their next three drafts, beginning with this one.
Moving back again from sixth to 14th overall brought a 2012 second-rounder in return, leaving the Rams with six of the first 96 overall selections -- the most for any team in recent seasons (New England had six of the first 97 picks in the 2009 draft).
With three second-round choices this year, the Rams felt comfortable taking a chance on Jenkins, a player widely regarded as a first-round talent. Jenkins might have the ability to make this draft for the Rams, but taking him at No. 39 and amid so many other early selections insulated the team from undue risk.
The Rams move forward with four first-round selections over the next two drafts. They're in position to get better the right way through the draft.
RISKIEST MOVE
There were a few candidates for consideration, including the Cardinals' decision to draft a wide receiver instead of an offensive tackle at No. 13.
But Irvin's selection with the 15th overall choice stands out given his background, one-dimensional nature and the surprise factor associated with his selection.
Irvin dropped out of high school, lived on the streets for two years, was arrested on robbery charges and more recently was charged with disorderly conduct. His life and career have been trending in the right direction for a few years, but with so few analysts projecting Irvin for the first round, the Seahawks can expect louder than usual criticism if Irvin fails to develop.
Seattle could have drafted Fletcher Cox, Quinton Coples, Michael Brockers, Melvin Ingram or Chandler Jones among the defensive players available when the Seahawks were scheduled to select with the 12th overall choice. They traded back and took Irvin after Philadelphia took Cox at No. 12 and St. Louis took Brockers at No. 14.
MOST SURPRISING MOVE
We could double up on Irvin in this space, but the 49ers deserve a mention as well.
They made Illinois receiver A.J. Jenkins a surprise selection with the 27th overall choice. Analysts knew San Francisco might consider a receiver in the first round, but if any of them projected Jenkins as a possibility in that slot, that would be news to me.
Personnel people I've spoken with said they liked Jenkins. The Rams reportedly had him ranked not far behind Justin Blackmon, the first receiver selected.
Receivers Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery and Rueben Randle drew more mention before the draft. All were available when the 49ers selected Jenkins, as were Brian Quick and Ryan Broyles, all taken in the second round. The 49ers will get an up-close look at Quick, drafted by the Rams. But Jenkins was the player they wanted.
FILE IT AWAY
The quarterback situations in Seattle and Arizona have become more competitive.
The Seahawks used a third-round choice for Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, a strong-armed quarterback with fantastic intangibles. Concerns over Wilson's 5-foot-11 height knocked him down draft boards, but a third-round pedigree in Seattle should put Seahawks quarterbacks Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson and Justin Portis on notice.
Arizona used a sixth-round choice for San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley. The Cardinals have shown a willingness to let less-heralded quarterbacks compete for playing time. John Skelton and Max Hall over the last couple seasons come to mind. With Kolb and John Skelton battling for the starting job, Lindley arrives as a potential alternative for the future.
The 49ers did not head into this draft needing to draft a quarterback, but this is a good time to recall the move they made to acquire Colin Kaepernick in the second round a year ago. Alex Smith is the incumbent starter, but his contract gives the 49ers an easy out after one or two seasons.
The shift in NFL disciplinary emphasis from off-field behavior to on-field safety should serve the NFC West well over the coming months.
The division took calculated gambles early and often in the 2012 NFL draft, selecting players with rap sheets as varied as the players' on-field skill sets.
But player safety is trumping player behavior as the prevailing NFL issue these days, and NFC West teams aren't likely to draw much scrutiny for their decisions, at least initially.
Five of the first 10 players NFC West teams selected had, at various times, faced accusations relating to drunken driving (Michael Floyd), robbery (Bruce Irvin), marijuana possession (Janoris Jenkins), attempted strangulation (LaMichael James) and resisting arrest (Trumaine Johnson).
They were not all charged nor convicted. They are not necessarily bad guys, of course. But each carried red flags into the evaluation process. Each represents a heightened risk for his new NFC West team.
What's going on here?
A theory: Pete Carroll, Jeff Fisher and Jim Harbaugh, in particular, are three of the higher-profile, more highly paid coaches in the NFL. Higher-paid coaches tend to have more power (Carroll and Fisher demanded personnel influence as a condition of employment). Coaches also tend to listen to their assistants. They might be more apt to take chances, confident in their ability to manage players.
Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt, also well-compensated and facing a pivotal year at quarterback, has made it clear that he's a believer in drafting with character in mind. He also might need to win his bet on Kevin Kolb, perhaps one reason the Cardinals, having done their homework on Floyd, took the first calculated gamble among NFC West teams.
Arizona made Floyd the second receiver drafted, taking him at No. 13. Irvin went to Seattle two spots later, followed by Jenkins to St. Louis (39th), James to San Francisco (61st) and Johnson to the Rams (65th).
BEST MOVE
The Rams' pre-draft move to trade back four spots from the second overall pick set up their next three drafts, beginning with this one.
[+] Enlarge
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesManuevering for additional picks meant the St. Louis Rams could take a chance on defensive back Janoris Jenkins.
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesManuevering for additional picks meant the St. Louis Rams could take a chance on defensive back Janoris Jenkins.With three second-round choices this year, the Rams felt comfortable taking a chance on Jenkins, a player widely regarded as a first-round talent. Jenkins might have the ability to make this draft for the Rams, but taking him at No. 39 and amid so many other early selections insulated the team from undue risk.
The Rams move forward with four first-round selections over the next two drafts. They're in position to get better the right way through the draft.
RISKIEST MOVE
There were a few candidates for consideration, including the Cardinals' decision to draft a wide receiver instead of an offensive tackle at No. 13.
But Irvin's selection with the 15th overall choice stands out given his background, one-dimensional nature and the surprise factor associated with his selection.
Irvin dropped out of high school, lived on the streets for two years, was arrested on robbery charges and more recently was charged with disorderly conduct. His life and career have been trending in the right direction for a few years, but with so few analysts projecting Irvin for the first round, the Seahawks can expect louder than usual criticism if Irvin fails to develop.
Seattle could have drafted Fletcher Cox, Quinton Coples, Michael Brockers, Melvin Ingram or Chandler Jones among the defensive players available when the Seahawks were scheduled to select with the 12th overall choice. They traded back and took Irvin after Philadelphia took Cox at No. 12 and St. Louis took Brockers at No. 14.
MOST SURPRISING MOVE
We could double up on Irvin in this space, but the 49ers deserve a mention as well.
They made Illinois receiver A.J. Jenkins a surprise selection with the 27th overall choice. Analysts knew San Francisco might consider a receiver in the first round, but if any of them projected Jenkins as a possibility in that slot, that would be news to me.
Personnel people I've spoken with said they liked Jenkins. The Rams reportedly had him ranked not far behind Justin Blackmon, the first receiver selected.
Receivers Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery and Rueben Randle drew more mention before the draft. All were available when the 49ers selected Jenkins, as were Brian Quick and Ryan Broyles, all taken in the second round. The 49ers will get an up-close look at Quick, drafted by the Rams. But Jenkins was the player they wanted.
FILE IT AWAY
The quarterback situations in Seattle and Arizona have become more competitive.
The Seahawks used a third-round choice for Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, a strong-armed quarterback with fantastic intangibles. Concerns over Wilson's 5-foot-11 height knocked him down draft boards, but a third-round pedigree in Seattle should put Seahawks quarterbacks Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson and Justin Portis on notice.
Arizona used a sixth-round choice for San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley. The Cardinals have shown a willingness to let less-heralded quarterbacks compete for playing time. John Skelton and Max Hall over the last couple seasons come to mind. With Kolb and John Skelton battling for the starting job, Lindley arrives as a potential alternative for the future.
The 49ers did not head into this draft needing to draft a quarterback, but this is a good time to recall the move they made to acquire Colin Kaepernick in the second round a year ago. Alex Smith is the incumbent starter, but his contract gives the 49ers an easy out after one or two seasons.
Jerry Lai/US PresswireKevin Kolb will now have another receiving threat in Michael Floyd.For one, it gives quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and John Skelton another physically impressive weapon opposite Larry Fitzgerald. The move also made sure the division-rival St. Louis Rams would not emerge with one of the two highest-rated receivers in the draft. Left unknown: to what degree the Rams wanted one of those wideouts.
The Rams were scheduled to pick sixth overall when Jacksonville traded ahead of them to take Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon, the highest-rated wideout in the draft. The Rams then traded back to No. 14. That selection was approaching when the Cardinals selected Floyd.
Arizona still needs an offensive tackle, in my view, and the team could have a tough time finding an immediate starter without a second-round choice this year.
Meanwhile, it's looking like the Rams will not find a receiving weapon until the second round, at the earliest. We'll find out soon enough. The Rams are on the clock.
Fitz as GM: A look at recent track record
April, 23, 2012
Apr 23
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By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A great wide receiver does not always make for a great general manager.
Larry Fitzgerald appears to have been right last season, however, when he called Arizona Cardinals first-round draft choice Patrick Peterson a "can't-miss" prospect.
Fitzgerald is now backing Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd as a first-round candidate for the Cardinals in 2012, according to a passage near the bottom of this page featuring Peter King's predraft thoughts. Sounds like a decent idea to me, and if Fitzgerald is supportive, that can only help. He can be a fabulous mentor.
Fitzgerald backed Kevin Kolb as an option via trade last offseason. That move has yet to pay off, although one lockout-affected season wasn't much to go on. While Fitzgerald was part of a Cardinals contingent to meet with free-agent quarterback Peyton Manning last month, the receiver remained matter-of-fact in his public comments. There was no need to say anything that would make Kolb's job tougher.
Larry Fitzgerald appears to have been right last season, however, when he called Arizona Cardinals first-round draft choice Patrick Peterson a "can't-miss" prospect.
Fitzgerald is now backing Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd as a first-round candidate for the Cardinals in 2012, according to a passage near the bottom of this page featuring Peter King's predraft thoughts. Sounds like a decent idea to me, and if Fitzgerald is supportive, that can only help. He can be a fabulous mentor.
Fitzgerald backed Kevin Kolb as an option via trade last offseason. That move has yet to pay off, although one lockout-affected season wasn't much to go on. While Fitzgerald was part of a Cardinals contingent to meet with free-agent quarterback Peyton Manning last month, the receiver remained matter-of-fact in his public comments. There was no need to say anything that would make Kolb's job tougher.
How to add talent without draft, free agency
April, 21, 2012
Apr 21
8:51
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Justin from Phoenix understands criticism over the Arizona Cardinals' relative inactivity in free agency. However, he notes that running back Ryan Williams and cornerback Greg Toler will be returning after missing the 2011 season with injuries. In his view, the team will be adding a couple of impact players.
Mike Sando: The Cardinals must have their fingers crossed on Williams, who really did stand out at training camp before suffering a torn patella tendon. That was a serious injury. Might Williams need an extended period -- perhaps several games or even the full season -- to get all the way back?
A healthy Toler would quietly give the Cardinals a potentially strong group of corners. Patrick Peterson, A.J. Jefferson, Toler and William Gay all have starting experience.
Nose tackle Dan Williams, who suffered a freak arm injury at San Francisco last season, is another key player the Cardinals expect to have back. We could throw quarterback Kevin Kolb into that category as well. He'll get a fresh start after battling head and toe injuries last season.
I've put together a chart showing notable NFC West players returning from injuries suffered last season. Seattle's James Carpenter and Walter Thurmond are not expected to be ready for training camp or even the regular season. They are candidates for the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Carpenter in particular will need an extended period to recover from his knee injury, general manager John Schneider said recently.
Tight end Nate Byham is the only San Francisco 49ers player on the list. The 49ers were generally healthy last season.
Byham projected as an outstanding blocker before suffering a season-ending knee injury. His expected return to a group featuring Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker should restore the position.
With Walker entering the final year of his contract, we've discussed the possibility of San Francisco drafting Stanford tight end Coby Fleener. However, Walker's value on special teams and his growth as an all-around tight end could make keeping him a priority. In that case, where would Fleener play?
Mike Sando: The Cardinals must have their fingers crossed on Williams, who really did stand out at training camp before suffering a torn patella tendon. That was a serious injury. Might Williams need an extended period -- perhaps several games or even the full season -- to get all the way back?
A healthy Toler would quietly give the Cardinals a potentially strong group of corners. Patrick Peterson, A.J. Jefferson, Toler and William Gay all have starting experience.
Nose tackle Dan Williams, who suffered a freak arm injury at San Francisco last season, is another key player the Cardinals expect to have back. We could throw quarterback Kevin Kolb into that category as well. He'll get a fresh start after battling head and toe injuries last season.
I've put together a chart showing notable NFC West players returning from injuries suffered last season. Seattle's James Carpenter and Walter Thurmond are not expected to be ready for training camp or even the regular season. They are candidates for the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Carpenter in particular will need an extended period to recover from his knee injury, general manager John Schneider said recently.
Tight end Nate Byham is the only San Francisco 49ers player on the list. The 49ers were generally healthy last season.
Byham projected as an outstanding blocker before suffering a season-ending knee injury. His expected return to a group featuring Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker should restore the position.
With Walker entering the final year of his contract, we've discussed the possibility of San Francisco drafting Stanford tight end Coby Fleener. However, Walker's value on special teams and his growth as an all-around tight end could make keeping him a priority. In that case, where would Fleener play?
Breakdown: The Cardinals drew two prime-time games, both against division opponents, as part of a schedule that should let them avoid a second consecutive slow start.
Arizona, which rallied to 8-8 last season after a 1-6 start, plays three of its first four games at home, beginning with Seattle's visit to University of Phoenix Stadium.
The Seahawks and Cardinals played two close games last season, including a Week 17 matchup in Arizona that went into overtime. The 2012 season picks up where the 2011 season left off, in other words. That's a welcome early development for the division as these teams seek to close ground on the defending NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.
Playing five of the first eight games at home sounds even better for Arizona knowing two of the road games during that stretch fall against St. Louis and Minnesota, teams coming off difficult seasons. Of course, this presumes the Cardinals will put forth a more respectable effort in the Metrodome this time around.
Kevin Kolb has to be looking forward to a Week 3 home game against his former team, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Complaint department: The Cardinals drew a division-high five games kicking off at 1 p.m. ET, the earliest possible time slot and one coach Ken Whisenhunt has lamented over the years. While the Cardinals finished strong last season in rallying to 8-8, question marks at quarterback made it tougher for Arizona to command additional prime-time games -- the surest way for a Western team to avoid the early starts. Overall, though, the Cardinals came out OK. They get a Week 10 bye between road trips to Green Bay and Atlanta, but that portion of the schedule does feature four of five games on the road.
Home sweet home: The Cardinals are opening at home for the second consecutive season and only the fourth time since the team relocated to Arizona for the 1988 season. They can thank their new stadium for providing relief from the scorching Arizona sun. More road games late in the season can be tough, but the Cardinals are home against Detroit and Chicago in Weeks 15-16, followed by their shortest road trip of the season, albeit to San Francisco, site of arguably their worst 2011 performance.
Cardinals Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, Seattle, 4:15 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, at New England, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, Philadelphia, 4:05 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, Miami, 4:05 PM
Week 5: Thursday, Oct. 4, at St. Louis, 8:20 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, Buffalo, 4:05 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 21, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 8: Monday, Oct. 29, San Francisco, 8:30 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, St. Louis, 4:15 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, at Seattle, 4:15 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, Detroit, 4:05 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, Chicago, 4:15 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
Arizona, which rallied to 8-8 last season after a 1-6 start, plays three of its first four games at home, beginning with Seattle's visit to University of Phoenix Stadium.
The Seahawks and Cardinals played two close games last season, including a Week 17 matchup in Arizona that went into overtime. The 2012 season picks up where the 2011 season left off, in other words. That's a welcome early development for the division as these teams seek to close ground on the defending NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.
Playing five of the first eight games at home sounds even better for Arizona knowing two of the road games during that stretch fall against St. Louis and Minnesota, teams coming off difficult seasons. Of course, this presumes the Cardinals will put forth a more respectable effort in the Metrodome this time around.
Kevin Kolb has to be looking forward to a Week 3 home game against his former team, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Complaint department: The Cardinals drew a division-high five games kicking off at 1 p.m. ET, the earliest possible time slot and one coach Ken Whisenhunt has lamented over the years. While the Cardinals finished strong last season in rallying to 8-8, question marks at quarterback made it tougher for Arizona to command additional prime-time games -- the surest way for a Western team to avoid the early starts. Overall, though, the Cardinals came out OK. They get a Week 10 bye between road trips to Green Bay and Atlanta, but that portion of the schedule does feature four of five games on the road.
Home sweet home: The Cardinals are opening at home for the second consecutive season and only the fourth time since the team relocated to Arizona for the 1988 season. They can thank their new stadium for providing relief from the scorching Arizona sun. More road games late in the season can be tough, but the Cardinals are home against Detroit and Chicago in Weeks 15-16, followed by their shortest road trip of the season, albeit to San Francisco, site of arguably their worst 2011 performance.
Cardinals Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, Seattle, 4:15 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, at New England, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, Philadelphia, 4:05 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, Miami, 4:05 PM
Week 5: Thursday, Oct. 4, at St. Louis, 8:20 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, Buffalo, 4:05 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 21, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 8: Monday, Oct. 29, San Francisco, 8:30 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, St. Louis, 4:15 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, at Seattle, 4:15 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, Detroit, 4:05 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, Chicago, 4:15 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
AP Photo/Aaron M. SprecherAndrew Luck developed as a high school quarterback playing seven-on-seven ball in Texas.It amounted to fast-break basketball on grass: a summer tournament seven-on-seven football game.
Stratford High School coach Eliot Allen watched it unfold from his usual spot in the back of an end zone, not interacting with the kids representing his school against Dez Bryant and Lufkin High.
Over two 20-minute halves with a running clock, at a furious pace where he had to throw the ball within four seconds of the snap against coverages that had no concern for the run, Andrew Luck didn’t throw an incomplete pass.
“He’s accuracy was unbelievable,” Allen said. “That one game he didn’t have an incomplete pass, I’ve never see it before or since. He throws such a catchable ball.”
When the Indianapolis Colts make Luck the first pick in the draft on April 26, the Stanford quarterback will enter the league rated by many scouts and evaluators as the most pro-ready quarterback since John Elway.
While Luck’s refined his remarkable touch as the leader of the Cardinal, he honed it early on in Texas seven-on-seven summer ball. He participated even as a rising ninth-grader, and Allen says Luck easily played 75 such games before moving onto college, contests that were crucial to the early development of good habits and exquisite ball placement.
2012 NFL Draft
Rd. 1: April 26, 8 p.m. ET
Rd. 2-3: April 27, 7 p.m. ET
Rd. 4-7: April 28, Noon ET
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“Watching Andrew grow and develop into a quarterback was nothing short of amazing,” said Raffield, who now coaches A&M Consolidated High School in College Station. “The seven-on-seven allowed him to really develop his game. When you are out there as a quarterback running the offense, it’s not plays being called by a coach. You’re the guy doing it. You’re becoming your own offensive coordinator …
“His junior and senior year he had an amazing ability to place the football. The accuracy was phenomenal. He understood pass coverages. It gave him such advantages. I didn’t know he’s wind up being an NFL first-round draft pick, but I knew he was special.”
The summer before Luck’s senior year in 2007, his team finished second in Texas and played in a national tournament in Los Angeles. There, football staffs of high schools from California and Florida coached their players, Allen recalled.
It doesn’t work that way in Texas, where a state organization runs the leagues and tournaments. A high school’s coaches might help arrange leagues, tournaments and officials, but players work under the watch of others. Stratford uses former players from their team as summer ball coaches.
Texans coach Gary Kubiak was a St. Pius X High School (Houston) and Texas A&M quarterback well before seven-on-seven summers started. He joked if he had a chance to play that much, people would have discovered he wasn’t any good.
Klein Kubiak, a Strake Jesuit High School receiver who graduated in 2009 and now plays at Rice, played in the same district and overlapped with Luck. So as Gary Kubiak followed his son, he saw Luck play in tournaments. He’s also seen just how much the competition and setting have done for Texas signal-callers.
“He was very impressive,” Gary Kubiak said. “I think there is a lot of growth going on in those leagues right now. On a Saturday afternoon, those kids might play six of those games.
“I just think you can’t get enough of those repetitions. It’s almost like having two spring balls. It’s almost gotten a little bit year round, kind of like baseball.”
Such summer-league play takes place in a lot of states now. But Texas was a pioneer.
So it’s no coincidence that the three top quarterbacks in this draft -- Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill -- are all from Texas.
“Think about these names,” said Tennessee Titans quarterback coach Dowell Loggains, who started at quarterback for Cooper High School in Abilene in 1997 and 1998 in both summer seven-on-seven and regular fall football. “Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton, Colt McCoy, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Kevin Kolb, Robert Griffin, Case Keenum.
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Danny Murphy/Icon SMITitans QB coach Dowell Loggains attributes the recent influx of quarterbacks from Texas into the NFL to all the extra reps they get.
Danny Murphy/Icon SMITitans QB coach Dowell Loggains attributes the recent influx of quarterbacks from Texas into the NFL to all the extra reps they get.Other states may be taking note and trying to copy, Loggains said. But it’ll be tough for many to match or top Texas because of the facilities and money high school football has in the Lone Star State.
Added ESPN analyst Jon Gruden when asked about Texas’ production of quarterbacks: “Obviously if you go to Texas, you can probably find passing tournaments going on right now, and if they're not going on right now, they'll be going on later this afternoon and for sure tomorrow and the next day. They throw the ball and have organized passing camps more than any place I've ever been.”
Allen said seven-on-seven forces quarterbacks to figure out ways to beat man-to-man coverage with two-deep safeties and that doing so at an early stage of their football careers is invaluable. Against such a look from the secondary in an actual high school game, a quarterback would hand off most of the time.
“You don’t win those games playing defense,” Allen said. “It reveals a quarterback’s accuracy and I don’t think you can simulate stiff coverage in a better way. Andrew was very good at it. He can throw the deep ball. A lot of people give him a hard time about not being able to throw the deep ball. He was great at it. But his deal is, he just wants to get first downs.”
As a high-schooler, Loggains said he thought the summer opportunity was “awesome.”
And it made it a heck of a lot easier to get time and work with receivers, who might not show up for an informal session on a Tuesday night, but wouldn’t miss a chance to play in a game with a score and a title on the line.
The proliferation of seven-on-seven play actually influenced the game at all levels.
Coaches found they had quarterbacks equipped to run spread offenses in high school, and moved away from traditional run-heavy, defense-centric schemes. They then fed those quarterbacks to colleges, where the spread continued to spread.
And when those quarterbacks landed in the NFL, teams had no choice but to employ some spread concepts, willingly or unwillingly, to try to take advantage of their quarterbacks’ strengths.
“When we had Vince Young, we had to mix in a lot of that with [offensive coordinators] Norm Chow and Mike Heimerdinger,” Loggains said.
Rather than an NFL idea trickling down, a byproduct of a high school idea trickled up.
And one scout I spoke with said he sees no end to it.
“That’s the new craze, the seven-on-seven stuff,” he said. “Texas has been doing it longer and it’s the most organized state. How many good quarterbacks have come out of Texas the last 10 years? A ton. The more reps you get at anything, the better you’ll be at it.
“It’s why I stink so bad at golf.”
Torry Holt got the timing right for his retirement news conference Wednesday at St. Louis Rams headquarters.
The Rams' seven-time Pro Bowler offered a formal goodbye while NFC West teams searched for receivers with comparable skill.
The latest 2012 NFL mock draft
from Mel Kiper Jr., a two-rounder with explanations for every selection, sends three receivers to NFC West teams in the first round alone.
We get the hint even though this division features a couple all-time greats in Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald. The Rams in particular need upgraded weapons, but the other teams in the division could use help as well.
And while Kiper did not send a receiver to Seattle in the first round, knowledgeable Seahawks fans know their team hasn't had a Pro Bowl player at the position since Brian Blades in 1989 (another receiver, Alex Bannister, made it as a special-teamer in 2003).
The symmetry with Holt and the Rams is striking. The team drafted Holt sixth overall in 1999, and a trade-down with Washington this offseason has given them the sixth pick again this year. That is where we pick up the conversation, using Kiper's mock as a starting point.
6. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.
Kiper's give: The possibility remains that St. Louis could move off this spot, but if they stay here and get Blackmon, they'll immediately upgrade a huge weakness, which is the lack of talented options for Sam Bradford in the passing game. Blackmon's speed is adequate, but his smarts, ball skills, route-running and work habits translate to a guy that can contribute immediately, which is what this offense desperately needs.
Sando's take: Kiper had cornerback Morris Claiborne heading to the Rams in his previous mock. Blackmon went to Cleveland at No. 4 in that scenario, but with running back Trent Richardson working out impressively following knee surgery, Kiper has the Browns taking Richardson instead of Blackmon. That left Blackmon for the Rams. We've debated on the blog whether Blackmon would be a reach with the sixth pick. We do know Blackmon would address a primary need, and that most analysts consider him a legitimate choice among the top 10 selections. The Rams are trying to bolster the position in free agency to diminish the need heading into the draft, but they aren't going to find a young talent such as Blackmon on the market at this time. The Rams own the 33rd and 39th picks as well, giving them an opportunity to find playmakers beyond the sixth choice, should they prefer to do so. Kiper had the Rams taking Michigan State defensive tackle Jerel Worthy and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams in the second round.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Kiper's give: Even if [Boston College linebacker Luke] Kuechly is still on the board, it would be tough for Seattle to pass on perhaps the safest 4-3 DE option available. Coples has prototypical size, can play every down as a pass-rusher and has a solid arsenal of moves to get to opposing quarterbacks, but with the size and discipline to be a force against the run. Seattle can't go wrong here with either the top LB or DE available. This defense is close to being considered among the NFL's finest.
Sando's take: The word "safest" isn't particularly comforting for Seahawks fans. Aaron Curry was considered the safest pick in the 2009 draft. Coples was my choice for Seattle in the recent NFL Blog Network mock. Then, Kuechly was not available. Kiper previously had Seattle taking Ryan Tannehill in this spot, but Tannehill was off the board this time and the Seahawks weren't in the QB market, anyway, after signing Matt Flynn. Some have criticized Coples for inconsistent effort. Pete Carroll constantly emphasizes competition, but the Seahawks have shown they can get good results from defensive players with varied résumés and reputations. Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Alan Branch come to mind. The draft plot thickens considerably for Seattle if Kuechly does slip past the top 11 choices. The word "safe" has applied to Kuechly as well. The Seahawks have obvious needs for a pass-rusher and a linebacker, so Coples and Kuechly make sense as projected picks. Kiper had the Seahawks taking Oklahoma linebacker Ronnell Lewis in the second round.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Kiper's give: Another pick I'll stick with, Floyd is a great complement to Larry Fitzgerald and will help Arizona maximize the options for Kevin Kolb. The offensive line could use help, but Floyd has proven that he'd be a good value here. Think of Atlanta getting Julio Jones to take some pressure off Roddy White last year. Floyd could fill a similar role.
Sando's take: Some might recall Kiper sending Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin to the Cardinals a couple mocks ago. Martin fell from the first round entirely in Kiper's next version before resurfacing in the 20s of this one. The Cardinals need help at tackle after failing to address the position in free agency. (Demetress Bell's agreement with Philadelphia takes away one option under consideration for Arizona.) I get Kiper's thinking on Floyd. Arming Kolb with sufficient options is important. I've offered a counterpoint in the video posted atop this entry. In short, the Cardinals have already armed Kolb with highly drafted weapons at running back, receiver and tight end. The case can be made that Kolb needs to make better use of the existing weapons. To do that, he'll have to gain a stronger grasp of the playbook this offseason. He'll also need to stay on the field, something he hasn't been able to do. Improved pocket awareness would help. Landing a tackle seems like a necessity, but how? I sent Courtney Upshaw to the Cardinals in our Blog Network mock, figuring pass-rushers are more valuable than receivers or offensive linemen. Stanford guard David DeCastro was available to Arizona in Kiper's latest mock. Would the Cardinals draft him to play guard, then move Adam Snyder to right tackle? Kent Somers raised that possibility and it's an interesting one. I'm not sure Snyder projects as the long-term solution at guard, let alone tackle.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
Kiper's give: Hill is the biggest home-run threat in the draft when you combine his speed and size, and it's no secret the 49ers need some help at wide receiver, even with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. He'll need an adjustment period as he gets used to doing more in terms of scheme than he was asked at Georgia Tech, but he's the kind of weapon this offense needs to expand.
Sando's take: The thinking makes sense, but the 49ers have options in this spot. Players drafted this late in the first round will likely need time before developing into starters. There's no pressure to target the most immediate need on the roster. Landing a receiver does have appeal. Moss is 35 years old and might not offer much at this stage. But the 49ers can count tight end Vernon Davis as one of their receiving options. They use two tight ends frequently. This team does not run a spread offense requiring three top-flight wideouts, in other words. And there's still a chance Michael Crabtree will take another step forward after finally getting a full offseason in the 49ers' offensive system. The team has flexibility heading into the draft, in other words. San Francisco could target just about any position with the 30th choice (quarterback would be a surprise). The 49ers can sit back and wait to see which talented players with question marks fall to them. Kiper had the 49ers taking Brandon Brooks, a guard from Miami of Ohio, in the second round. The need for guard help could subside if the 49ers sign a veteran in free agency, however. They've visited with a few.
» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Arizona Cardinals
Key additions: OL Adam Snyder, CB William Gay
Key losses: CB Richard Marshall
Sando's grade so far: C-minus. Arizona gets credit for making a strong run at Peyton Manning and securing a visit with him at Cardinals headquarters. That was a bold move and one that could have instantly transformed the Cardinals into a contending team. But it did not work. Coach Ken Whisenhunt had a point when he said the Cardinals were comfortable moving forward with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton as their quarterbacks. However, it was still telling that Arizona would aggressively pursue another quarterback eight months after allocating $12.4 million per year to Kolb. Most of the other teams making big investments in quarterbacks last offseason sat out the Manning sweepstakes.
Overall, Arizona has done little to upgrade its roster. Committing $19 million in bonus money to Snyder, Levi Brown and Kolb will not make the team $19 million better. Marshall was a valued contributor and the MVP on defense last season, according to coordinator Ray Horton. He'll be missed after signing with Miami. On the other hand, the Cardinals did win seven of their final nine games last season. Perhaps they have fewer holes than conventional wisdom suggests.
What’s next: The Cardinals need help at offensive tackle and have shown interest in Buffalo Bills free agent Demetrius Bell. The team would be fortunate to address the position before the draft. Whisenhunt has consistently defended Brown, who has played both tackle spots since 2007. The team's decision to give Brown a $7 million signing bonus as part of a streamlined contract showed Whisenhunt wasn't bluffing. But another starting tackle would help.
The Cardinals have yet to reach a long-term agreement with franchise player Calais Campbell. Getting a deal done with Campbell would reduce the defensive end's salary-cap charge ($10.6 million for now). It would reward a rising young player and head off future headaches associated with using the tag a second time next offseason.
Receiver and possibly outside linebacker are also areas where the Cardinals could use reinforcements.
San Francisco 49ers
Key additions: WR Randy Moss, WR Mario Manningham, RB Brandon Jacobs
Key losses: Snyder, WR Josh Morgan, ST Blake Costanzo
Sando's grade so far: B-plus. The 49ers had relatively few holes on their roster after a 13-3 season. Pursuing Manning provided a temporary distraction without inflicting long-term damage. The 49ers needed to keep together their core, and they accomplished that goal. Alex Smith's re-signing to a three-year deal was key. Smith will return to the team, maintaining continuity and giving the 49ers' offense a chance to build on last season. But the contract terms will not limit the 49ers' options beyond this season, a plus.
The 49ers succeeded in re-signing Pro Bowl cornerback Carlos Rogers after using the franchise tag to retain Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson. Those moves solidified the secondary. Addressing the situation at wide receiver was a top priority heading into free agency. Moss and Manningham were low-risk, high-reward additions. Both have the potential to provide qualities the 49ers were lacking last season, but neither carried a high price tag. Retaining receiver Ted Ginn Jr. restored firepower to the return game.
What’s next: Using the draft to improve the long-term outlook at receiver still could be an option. But with Moss, Manningham and Ginn on the roster, the 49ers should not feel pressured to select a wideout with the 30th overall choice in the draft. The team now has flexibility. There has been no indication that the 49ers or any team will seriously pursue Pittsburgh Steelers restricted free agent Mike Wallace, who reportedly wants Larry Fitzgerald money.
The 49ers could use a veteran right guard for insurance in case Daniel Kilgore isn't ready for the starting job. They have visited with Leonard Davis and Deuce Lutui, both former Cardinals. Keeping Snyder would have been nice, but the Cardinals paid a $5 million signing bonus to get him. That price was too high for the 49ers, who similarly balked last offseason when the New York Giants gave center David Baas an $8.5 million bonus.
St. Louis Rams
Key additions: CB Cortland Finnegan, C Scott Wells, DT Kendall Langford, WR Steve Smith
Key losses: WR Brandon Lloyd, P Donnie Jones, OLB Chris Chamberlain
Sando's grade so far: B. The Rams would get a higher grade for their offseason in general, but this item focuses on free agency. That excludes from consideration Jeff Fisher's hiring as head coach, and general manager Les Snead's ability to maximize value for the second overall pick in the draft. The Finnegan and Wells signings give the Rams welcome leadership while upgrading important positions. Langford should help the run defense.
The Rams have yet to address their playmaking deficiencies. They did not land any of the high-profile wide receivers in free agency. There's a chance Smith will recapture old form in his second season back from microfracture knee surgery, but the Rams are not counting on that. They will almost certainly emerge from free agency without even marginally upgrading the weaponry for quarterback Sam Bradford. That is a disappointment.
What’s next: The outlook remains bright for St. Louis. The team owns the sixth, 33rd and 39th choices in the 2012 draft, plus two first-rounders in each of the following two drafts. There will be time and opportunity for the Rams to add the offensive firepower they need so badly, perhaps with Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon or Alabama running back Trent Richardson at No. 6 overall.
Much work lies ahead. The Rams emerged from this week with eight fewer players on their roster than the average for the other 31 teams. Using free agency to address holes at outside linebacker and left guard would provide flexibility heading into the draft. The Rams still need a backup quarterback as well. Bradford is the only QB on the roster. It's looking like the team is serious about bringing back right tackle Jason Smith despite injury concerns and a fat contract that will presumably require adjustment.
Seattle Seahawks
Key additions: QB Matt Flynn, DT Jason Jones
Key losses: TE John Carlson, DT Anthony Hargrove
Sando's grade so far: B-plus: The Seahawks knew for months that Manning would probably hit the market and still could not secure a meeting with him. Their pursuit included a flight by coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider to Denver in a desperation move that failed to impress Manning. That was a rare disappointment for Seattle in free agency.
Re-signing Marshawn Lynch before the signing period took off much of the pressure. Re-signing Red Bryant without using the franchise tag rewarded the Seahawks for a disciplined approach to the market. That approach paid off again when the Seahawks landed Flynn without rushing into an imprudent contract. Flynn spent five days on the market before signing with Seattle. The Seahawks got him for about half as much per season as Kolb cost a year ago, without even promising him the starting job. That was impressive.
What’s next: Quarterback and pass-rusher were Seattle's top two needs heading into free agency. Flynn solved one of them for now, at least. Jones, an inside pass-rusher signed from Tennessee, should help the other area. But the need for outside pass-rush help persists. The team could use the 12th overall choice in the draft for a defensive end.
Linebacker is another obvious position of need for Seattle. Market conditions favor Seattle's re-signing veterans David Hawthorne and Leroy Hill at reasonable rates. Both were starters last season. Hawthorne visited Detroit and New Orleans in free agency, but those teams subsequently signed other linebackers. Hill turns 30 in September, has had some off-field issues in the past and should have more value to Seattle than to another team. Still, it's an upset if the Seahawks do not address linebacker in the draft.
Arizona Cardinals
Key additions: OL Adam Snyder, CB William Gay
Key losses: CB Richard Marshall
Sando's grade so far: C-minus. Arizona gets credit for making a strong run at Peyton Manning and securing a visit with him at Cardinals headquarters. That was a bold move and one that could have instantly transformed the Cardinals into a contending team. But it did not work. Coach Ken Whisenhunt had a point when he said the Cardinals were comfortable moving forward with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton as their quarterbacks. However, it was still telling that Arizona would aggressively pursue another quarterback eight months after allocating $12.4 million per year to Kolb. Most of the other teams making big investments in quarterbacks last offseason sat out the Manning sweepstakes.
Overall, Arizona has done little to upgrade its roster. Committing $19 million in bonus money to Snyder, Levi Brown and Kolb will not make the team $19 million better. Marshall was a valued contributor and the MVP on defense last season, according to coordinator Ray Horton. He'll be missed after signing with Miami. On the other hand, the Cardinals did win seven of their final nine games last season. Perhaps they have fewer holes than conventional wisdom suggests.
What’s next: The Cardinals need help at offensive tackle and have shown interest in Buffalo Bills free agent Demetrius Bell. The team would be fortunate to address the position before the draft. Whisenhunt has consistently defended Brown, who has played both tackle spots since 2007. The team's decision to give Brown a $7 million signing bonus as part of a streamlined contract showed Whisenhunt wasn't bluffing. But another starting tackle would help.
The Cardinals have yet to reach a long-term agreement with franchise player Calais Campbell. Getting a deal done with Campbell would reduce the defensive end's salary-cap charge ($10.6 million for now). It would reward a rising young player and head off future headaches associated with using the tag a second time next offseason.
Receiver and possibly outside linebacker are also areas where the Cardinals could use reinforcements.
San Francisco 49ers
Key additions: WR Randy Moss, WR Mario Manningham, RB Brandon Jacobs
Key losses: Snyder, WR Josh Morgan, ST Blake Costanzo
Sando's grade so far: B-plus. The 49ers had relatively few holes on their roster after a 13-3 season. Pursuing Manning provided a temporary distraction without inflicting long-term damage. The 49ers needed to keep together their core, and they accomplished that goal. Alex Smith's re-signing to a three-year deal was key. Smith will return to the team, maintaining continuity and giving the 49ers' offense a chance to build on last season. But the contract terms will not limit the 49ers' options beyond this season, a plus.
The 49ers succeeded in re-signing Pro Bowl cornerback Carlos Rogers after using the franchise tag to retain Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson. Those moves solidified the secondary. Addressing the situation at wide receiver was a top priority heading into free agency. Moss and Manningham were low-risk, high-reward additions. Both have the potential to provide qualities the 49ers were lacking last season, but neither carried a high price tag. Retaining receiver Ted Ginn Jr. restored firepower to the return game.
What’s next: Using the draft to improve the long-term outlook at receiver still could be an option. But with Moss, Manningham and Ginn on the roster, the 49ers should not feel pressured to select a wideout with the 30th overall choice in the draft. The team now has flexibility. There has been no indication that the 49ers or any team will seriously pursue Pittsburgh Steelers restricted free agent Mike Wallace, who reportedly wants Larry Fitzgerald money.
The 49ers could use a veteran right guard for insurance in case Daniel Kilgore isn't ready for the starting job. They have visited with Leonard Davis and Deuce Lutui, both former Cardinals. Keeping Snyder would have been nice, but the Cardinals paid a $5 million signing bonus to get him. That price was too high for the 49ers, who similarly balked last offseason when the New York Giants gave center David Baas an $8.5 million bonus.
St. Louis Rams
Key additions: CB Cortland Finnegan, C Scott Wells, DT Kendall Langford, WR Steve Smith
Key losses: WR Brandon Lloyd, P Donnie Jones, OLB Chris Chamberlain
Sando's grade so far: B. The Rams would get a higher grade for their offseason in general, but this item focuses on free agency. That excludes from consideration Jeff Fisher's hiring as head coach, and general manager Les Snead's ability to maximize value for the second overall pick in the draft. The Finnegan and Wells signings give the Rams welcome leadership while upgrading important positions. Langford should help the run defense.
The Rams have yet to address their playmaking deficiencies. They did not land any of the high-profile wide receivers in free agency. There's a chance Smith will recapture old form in his second season back from microfracture knee surgery, but the Rams are not counting on that. They will almost certainly emerge from free agency without even marginally upgrading the weaponry for quarterback Sam Bradford. That is a disappointment.
What’s next: The outlook remains bright for St. Louis. The team owns the sixth, 33rd and 39th choices in the 2012 draft, plus two first-rounders in each of the following two drafts. There will be time and opportunity for the Rams to add the offensive firepower they need so badly, perhaps with Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon or Alabama running back Trent Richardson at No. 6 overall.
Much work lies ahead. The Rams emerged from this week with eight fewer players on their roster than the average for the other 31 teams. Using free agency to address holes at outside linebacker and left guard would provide flexibility heading into the draft. The Rams still need a backup quarterback as well. Bradford is the only QB on the roster. It's looking like the team is serious about bringing back right tackle Jason Smith despite injury concerns and a fat contract that will presumably require adjustment.
Seattle Seahawks
Key additions: QB Matt Flynn, DT Jason Jones
Key losses: TE John Carlson, DT Anthony Hargrove
Sando's grade so far: B-plus: The Seahawks knew for months that Manning would probably hit the market and still could not secure a meeting with him. Their pursuit included a flight by coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider to Denver in a desperation move that failed to impress Manning. That was a rare disappointment for Seattle in free agency.
Re-signing Marshawn Lynch before the signing period took off much of the pressure. Re-signing Red Bryant without using the franchise tag rewarded the Seahawks for a disciplined approach to the market. That approach paid off again when the Seahawks landed Flynn without rushing into an imprudent contract. Flynn spent five days on the market before signing with Seattle. The Seahawks got him for about half as much per season as Kolb cost a year ago, without even promising him the starting job. That was impressive.
What’s next: Quarterback and pass-rusher were Seattle's top two needs heading into free agency. Flynn solved one of them for now, at least. Jones, an inside pass-rusher signed from Tennessee, should help the other area. But the need for outside pass-rush help persists. The team could use the 12th overall choice in the draft for a defensive end.
Linebacker is another obvious position of need for Seattle. Market conditions favor Seattle's re-signing veterans David Hawthorne and Leroy Hill at reasonable rates. Both were starters last season. Hawthorne visited Detroit and New Orleans in free agency, but those teams subsequently signed other linebackers. Hill turns 30 in September, has had some off-field issues in the past and should have more value to Seattle than to another team. Still, it's an upset if the Seahawks do not address linebacker in the draft.
Peter from Rutland, Vt., points to Anthony Dixon's failed third-and-1 rushing attempt in the NFC Championship Game as one reason the San Francisco 49ers might have signed former New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs.
This play escaped my attention in the Jacobs item Tuesday. I suspect the play-by-play file I consulted did not encompass the NFC Championship Game.
"Dixon got stuffed by the Giants on a key third-and-1 attempt," Peter recalled. "He danced instead of smashing. That's why they took a chance on Jacobs. Dixon is not a reliable power back."
Perhaps, but Jacobs failed to convert a fourth-and-1 rushing attempt in the same game, and he has never been known for his hard-nosed running.
Dixon converted both of his rushing tries during the regular season when needing a single yard on third or fourth down. He missed that one attempt during the postseason, but Jacobs converted only 4 of 8 regular-season tries and 5-of-11 overall when counting the postseason.
I went back and watched Dixon's failed play just to be sure what happened. Dixon did not set a new standard for powerful running on the play, but neither did he have much room to run.
The 49ers shuffled their offensive line and brought onto the field two defenders, Justin Smith and Isaac Sopoaga, for additional blocking. The line, left to right, featured Vernon Davis, Alex Boone, Adam Snyder, Jonathan Goodwin (center), Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Joe Staley and Smith. Sopoaga lined up to the right in an offset-I formation.
The blocking was not very good. Mathias Kiwanuka shed Smith immediately and blocked Dixon's path off tackle. Chris Canty got between Anthony Davis and Staley in time to affect Dixon. Dixon did hesitate and step to the side as he sought an opening. Again, though, the blocking was not great.
While an NFL offense should be able to pick up a third-and-1 on the ground, I've thought the 49ers needed to occasionally break from tendency in these situations, not just with a pass but with a deeper strike to Vernon Davis. Previous 49ers coaching staffs succeeded with this tactic.
The 49ers had beaten the Giants for an 18-yard pass to Delanie Walker on a third-and-1 play when the teams met back in Week 10. Perhaps the 49ers' staff knew the Giants would be ready if they tried another pass. And, as noted, the team should be able to pick up a third-and-1 rushing play.
But with such a heavy formation to the right side, the Giants were ready for Dixon. They also took advantage of the fact that Smith, though a great player, plays defense and isn't a polished blocker.
The chart shows 2011 regular-season conversion stats for NFC West running backs on third and fourth downs with 1 yard needed for a first down. There's a reason teams use quarterback sneaks.
This play escaped my attention in the Jacobs item Tuesday. I suspect the play-by-play file I consulted did not encompass the NFC Championship Game.
"Dixon got stuffed by the Giants on a key third-and-1 attempt," Peter recalled. "He danced instead of smashing. That's why they took a chance on Jacobs. Dixon is not a reliable power back."
Perhaps, but Jacobs failed to convert a fourth-and-1 rushing attempt in the same game, and he has never been known for his hard-nosed running.
Dixon converted both of his rushing tries during the regular season when needing a single yard on third or fourth down. He missed that one attempt during the postseason, but Jacobs converted only 4 of 8 regular-season tries and 5-of-11 overall when counting the postseason.
I went back and watched Dixon's failed play just to be sure what happened. Dixon did not set a new standard for powerful running on the play, but neither did he have much room to run.
The 49ers shuffled their offensive line and brought onto the field two defenders, Justin Smith and Isaac Sopoaga, for additional blocking. The line, left to right, featured Vernon Davis, Alex Boone, Adam Snyder, Jonathan Goodwin (center), Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Joe Staley and Smith. Sopoaga lined up to the right in an offset-I formation.
The blocking was not very good. Mathias Kiwanuka shed Smith immediately and blocked Dixon's path off tackle. Chris Canty got between Anthony Davis and Staley in time to affect Dixon. Dixon did hesitate and step to the side as he sought an opening. Again, though, the blocking was not great.
While an NFL offense should be able to pick up a third-and-1 on the ground, I've thought the 49ers needed to occasionally break from tendency in these situations, not just with a pass but with a deeper strike to Vernon Davis. Previous 49ers coaching staffs succeeded with this tactic.
The 49ers had beaten the Giants for an 18-yard pass to Delanie Walker on a third-and-1 play when the teams met back in Week 10. Perhaps the 49ers' staff knew the Giants would be ready if they tried another pass. And, as noted, the team should be able to pick up a third-and-1 rushing play.
But with such a heavy formation to the right side, the Giants were ready for Dixon. They also took advantage of the fact that Smith, though a great player, plays defense and isn't a polished blocker.
The chart shows 2011 regular-season conversion stats for NFC West running backs on third and fourth downs with 1 yard needed for a first down. There's a reason teams use quarterback sneaks.
