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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): Quarterback Christian Ponder makes a big leap in his second season, spurred in part by confidence in his new offensive line. Ponder makes good use of his two pass-catching tight ends, Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, and either Jerome Simpson or Greg Childs provides a legitimate downfield threat. Tailback Adrian Peterson (knee) is back to full strength early in the season, if not in Week 1. The Vikings get a big return on overhauling the middle of their defense and aren't hindered by starting one rookie safety (Harrison Smith) and perhaps two (with Robert Blanton). In a tough division, they're thrilled to finish with a winning record.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): The Vikings show no improvement from 2011, giving them a three-year record of 12-36. Ponder's inconsistency raises questions about his future with the franchise. Peterson returns but isn't a dominant runner any longer. The defense implodes because of its inexperience and lack of playmakers in the back end. It's clear the franchise has another year or more to go before matching the rest of the division.

Have the Minnesota Vikings put quarterback Christian Ponder in position to succeed in 2012?

Ponder finished his rookie season with a series of injuries and poor decisions, playing behind a patchwork offensive line and with a limited set of weapons in the passing game. The Vikings' short-term future is tied to Ponder's development, so here is what they did for him this offseason:

They drafted Matt Kalil to take over at left tackle, a move that allows Charlie Johnson to move to left guard and accomplishes a significant re-make of the offensive line. They signed pass-catching tight end John Carlson to pair with another smooth pass-catcher, Kyle Rudolph, and signed athletic receiver Jerome Simpson, who will be eligible to play in Week 4. Finally, they drafted a pair of Arkansas receivers in Jarius Wright and Greg Childs.

The idea of having multiple tight end targets makes sense for a young quarterback, and Ponder should have more confidence this season in his backside protection. Percy Harvin and Simpson could pair up as a decent playmaking duo at receiver, but depth remains a question mark. Ponder will be in a better position than he was last season, but the talent around him could still be improved.

I'm not sure what it means, if anything, but the Minnesota Vikings have produced a unique draft quirk as we approach the final few rounds of the NFC North draft.

To this point, they have drafted three sets of college teammates among their first seven picks. Here's the rundown:

• USC: Left tackle Matt Kalil (No. 4 overall) and tight end/fullback Rhett Ellison (No. 128). Ellison told Minnesota reporters that he was stunned to be drafted.
• Notre Dame: Safety Harrison Smith (No. 29 overall) and cornerback Robert Blanton (No. 139).
• Arkansas: Receivers Jarius Wright (No. 118 overall) and Greg Childs (No. 134). Wright, and Childs, in fact, were high school teammates and grew up together in Arkansas.

The Notre Dame connection is especially notable when you consider the Vikings already have three former Irish players on their roster: Tight ends Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson, along with center John Sullivan.

Tweeted quarterback Christian Ponder: "I'm going to have to figure out how to deal with all of these golden domers."

Thanks to AFC West colleague Bill Williamson, we've known for a few hours that the Minnesota Vikings were likely to make tight end John Carlson their first free-agent signing. And now ESPN's Adam Schefter has confirmed Carlson agreed to a five-year deal worth $25 million during a visit Wednesday.

Carlson is a Minnesota native and figures to team with fellow Notre Dame alumnus Kyle Rudolph to form a potent set of pass-catching tight ends. One of general manager Rick Spielman's top goals is to surround young quarterback Christian Ponder with more playmakers in the passing game, and that can be accomplished through the addition of a tight end as easily as a wide receiver.

The question on Carlson is his health, which the Vikings presumably checked out in great detail before finalizing Wednesday's agreement. He missed all of last season with the Seattle Seahawks because of a torn labrum, and he hasn't played since suffering a scary concussion during the Seahawks' 2010 divisional playoff game at Soldier Field.

It was the third concussion Carlson has suffered in his football career, according to reports at the time, and he was taken off the field in an ambulance. We have our fair share of experience with concussions here in the NFC North, but at this point we have to defer to the Vikings' medical staff as it relates to Carlson.

A few thoughts on a wild game at the Metrodome with the Broncos winning 35-32:

What it means: In shades of their early-season struggles, the Minnesota Vikings lost another halftime lead and found a way to lose this game at the end. They are 2-10 and the best news is that they maintained their position near the top of the 2012 draft.

PonderWatch: We saw the best and worst of rookie quarterback Christian Ponder, who threw for 381 yards and three scores but also had two game-defining interceptions. Part of me wants to give Ponder credit for that kind of production in the absence of tailback Adrian Peterson. Ponder also appeared to be playing on a gimpy leg. But he threw his first interception into the hands of Mario Haggan, resulting in a 16-yard return for a score. And his second put the Broncos in position for Matt Prater's game-winning 23-yard field goal as time expired.

HarvinWatch: Receiver Percy Harvin, who missed practice Friday because of an illness, was the Vikings' big playmaker in the absence of Peterson. Harvin turned two short passes into long touchdown plays in the second half and finished with 156 receiving yards. He also took another five carries out of the backfield. I like the way the Vikings are using Harvin on offense under new coordinator Bill Musgrave.

Secondary woes: When Tim Tebow completes 10 of 15 passes against you for 202 yards and two scores, and isn't intercepted, you know you've got some issues in your secondary. Rookies Brandon Burton and Mistral Raymond saw plenty of action and, not surprisingly, struggled at times. The biggest insult: The Broncos offense scored 28 points using basically a traditional offense. They didn't need to resort to the option and Tebow had only four carries.

Highlight reel: Rookie tight end Kyle Rudolph gave fans something to think about for the future by reaching over safety Quinton Carter to haul in a 19-yard touchdown reception. You can't ask more from a tight end in the red zone than to render the defender helpless with his size.

What's next: The Vikings will play at the Detroit Lions next Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

Adam of Winnipeg spurred an interesting thought during Tuesday's SportsNation chat:

Adam (Winnipeg)

I have to say, After Randall Cobb's week 1, I was reaaaally hoping that Titus Young would be good after the Lions chose him over Cobb. Now I feel good, Titus' hands are exceptional. What do you think?

Kevin Seifert (2:45 PM)

Very different players and being used in different ways. We did a Have at It on that during the offseason, and I think we concluded that Young would get a lot more chances on offense than Cobb. So far, it's gone that way.

Yes, in May we debated whether Young or Cobb would have a more productive rookie season. As it turns out, we could have expanded that question to a rookie pass-catcher for each NFC North team, three of whom were drafted in a span of 20 picks in the second round this past April. The fourth wasn't drafted at all.

The Minnesota Vikings selected tight end Kyle Rudolph with the No. 43 overall pick. The Detroit Lions followed by taking Young at No. 44 overall. Cobb went to the Green Bay Packers at No. 64, and Dane Sanzenbacher signed with the Chicago Bears as an undrafted free agent.

Each of the four has demonstrated at least the potential of a rookie impact. None of their statistics jump out at you, but through three games you've probably seen enough to start forming an opinion. So we'll put it this way: Which rookie pass-catcher has most impressed you early on?

A few thoughts and notes:

• Young has caught nine passes for 140 yards, making some particularly difficult catches over the middle along the way. "He's going to make a lot of plays in this offense," Lions coach Jim Schwartz said. "He's a young player and still has a ways to go, but he made some really big-time catches. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he's got really strong hands, and he's fearless going across the middle."
• Cobb has caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown. He's averaging 45.8 yards on four kickoff returns, most famously his 108-yarder in Week 1, and 7.3 yards on six punt returns. The Packers are picking and choosing their spots to use him on their talented offense. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Cobb has been on the field for 36 of 204 offensive snaps.
• Rudolph has caught four passes for 54 yards in the Vikings' pass-challenged offense. He has looked smooth and run purposefully in the seams, and it's easy to envision him developing into a force when and if the Vikings' offense settles into a more efficient state.
• Sanzenbacher instantly became a favorite of Bears quarterback Jay Cutler in training camp and is getting extra playing time in the slot because of Earl Bennett's chest injury. He's caught nine passes for 66 yards and is tied for second in the NFL among rookie receivers with two touchdowns.

Tell me your thoughts in the comments section below. As always, I'll publish a representative sample, along with my own thoughts, by the end of the week. Have at It.

The best thing we can say about Week 4 of the preseason is that it's over, at least here in the NFC North. The next time one of our teams is on the field, it will be for real. In between, roster cutdowns from 8o to 53 will take place. The deadline is Saturday evening.

A quick rundown of Thursday evening's activity, which featured four fun but meaningless victories:

Chicago Bears 24, Cleveland Browns 14
Final preseason record: 2-2
Of interest: Only a handful of Bears starters played. One of them, defensive tackle Henry Melton, registered an encouraging sack of Browns quarterback Seneca Wallace in the first quarter. ... It was interesting, but probably not newsworthy, that Chris Spencer started at center alongside the rest of the Bears' first-team offensive line. Just a night off for veteran Roberto Garza. ... Backup quarterback Caleb Hanie took a step in the right direction, completing 7 of 10 passes for 83 yards and dropping a perfect pass into the far corner of the end zone for a 19-yard touchdown to receiver Johnny Knox. ... Tailback Chester Taylor started but managed 27 yards on 10 carries in what was presumably a showcase stint. But an injury to tailback Khahlil Bell might change the Bears' plans for Taylor, depending on its severity.

Detroit Lions 16, Buffalo Bills 6
Final preseason record: 4-0
Of interest: Most starters played one series. ... Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw a 39-yard pass to receiver Calvin Johnson on the game's first play, allowing Stafford to finish the preseason with this line: 25 completions, 33 attempts, 395 yards, five touchdowns and a 154.7 passer rating. ... Receiver Maurice Stovall produced a nice final argument for a roster spot, downing a punt at the Bills' 8-yard line and catching a 16-yard touchdown pass from Shaun Hill in the first quarter. ... Running back Jerome Harrison was untouched until the end of his 47-yard run in the first quarter. ... Rookie punter Ryan Donahue got the first punt of the night, for whatever that's worth, and averaged 44.0 yards on four punts. Veteran Nick Harris averaged 51.5 yards on two punts.

Green Bay Packers 20, Kansas City Chiefs 19
Final preseason record: 3-1
Of interest: Some starters, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, played one series. Rodgers' final pass of the preseason was an 8-yard touchdown to tight end Tom Crabtree. Rodgers finished the preseason with 37 completions in 47 attempts for 395 yards and four touchdowns for a 130.1 passer rating. ... Tailback Ryan Grant's 23-yard run to start the game came after strong blocks from tight end Andrew Quarless and right tackle Bryan Bulaga. ... Linebacker Vic So'Oto has put on a late charge for a roster spot. Thursday night, he had 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown. ... Not that it's a big concern, but quarterback Matt Flynn had one of the ugliest lines you'll see: two completions in 10 attempts for 12 yards and an interception, good for a 0.0 passer rating.

Minnesota Vikings 28, Houston Texans 0
Final preseason record: 2-2
Of interest: Nearly every starter sat out this game. Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder put on an unexpected display of his scrambling ability, running for 61 yards on eight carries, before leaving midway through the third quarter. Some were nice improvisational plays. A few were necessary when blitzers came free. And a few came after the point when he should have thrown the ball. All in all, however, Ponder left the Vikings with a positive impression after completing 10 of 16 passes for 83 yards, including a 5-yard touchdown to tight end Kyle Rudolph. ... With their top three running backs sidelined, the Vikings gave a workout to rookie Caleb King, whom they signed last month after no one selected him in the supplemental draft. King finished with 62 yards on 19 carries, including two touchdown runs.

Short echoed the concerns of some other Minnesota Vikings I've heard from during Tuesday's SportsNation chat:

The Vikings' offense looks eerily similar to the one [Brad] Childress ran his first couple of seasons here: run, run, 2-yard slant pass on third down, close your eyes and hopefully fall forward for the first down. How can they expect fans to endure that again? They simply have no one who can stretch the field. Your observations, please.

The question reminded me of the guys who used to sit at the Metrodome, in full Childress costume, carrying a mock playcard that showed two plays: "Chester Taylor right" and "Chester Taylor left." Anyway, while I'll admit the Vikings offense hasn't been too exciting or productive yet this summer, I would caution about drawing too many conclusions about preseason playcalling. And it's also worth noting that two of their most explosive pass-catchers, receiver Percy Harvin and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, have been sidelined by injuries.

Here are the raw numbers, for the record: The Vikings first-team offense unofficially has run 31 plays over four possessions this summer. It has gained 135 yards, including 81 on its final drive last Saturday against the Seattle Seahawks, along with eight first downs and three points.

Based on everything we've heard from coach Leslie Frazier and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, the Vikings won't attempt to replicate the downfield passing success they achieved in 2009 and tried to carry over to 2010. This offense will revolve around tailback Adrian Peterson. It will look for occasional big plays from Harvin and wisely take advantage of two really skilled pass-catching tight ends in Shiancoe and rookie Kyle Rudolph.

(Worth noting from Mark Craig of the Star Tribune: "No player in camp has looked better" than Rudolph.)

But I would be careful about putting that general philosophy in the same category of what Childress ran in his early years with the Vikings. From a pure football perspective, Musgrave's scheme is inherently different than Childress'.

Musgrave has said often that he'll tailor his playbook to the skills of his players, and we'll delve into that plan soon here on the blog. But for now, it's worth noting that even the basic terminology and concepts have a different origin than Childress' west Coast scheme.

We all like to put titles on offensive and defensive schemes, so here is how Musgrave described his during a summer interview with The Daily Norseman blog:

"Well, our language is based more on the Ron Erhardt system. Of the three different systems that have withstood the test of time in the NFL, you could count Don Coryell's number system, of course Paul Brown and Bill Walsh's West Coast offense system, and Ron Erhardt's system, which has been run for years, with the Pittsburgh Steelers, now with coach [Ken] Whisenhunt in Arizona. Of course it's being run in Atlanta with Mike Mularkey, and portions of it are being implemented in New England, and with the Giants. So our offense will be rooted in that base language."

For perspective, consider that both the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions run a version of Coryell's number system. The Green Bay Packers, of course, use West Coast terminology and concepts. The Vikings, then, will use the same terminology as the Cardinals, Falcons and Steelers, among others.

In the end, I think the 2011 Vikings will feature the run and won't have nearly as many downfield passing plays as they did in 2009 and parts of 2010. But will it be Adrian Peterson left, Adrian Peterson right and a 2-yard pass to a blocking tight end? It's too early to know that.

The Detroit Lions will be the first NFC North team to get on the field for a training camp practice, and so it makes sense for them to have made signing their draft class a high priority. After a flurry of agreements Thursday afternoon, the Lions are down to one unsigned rookie: First-round pick Nick Fairley.

The Lions have a 10:15 a.m. practice scheduled for Friday morning.

Chicago Bears

Signed

• Round 5(a): Linebacker J.T. Thomas
• Round 5(b): Quarterback Nathan Enderle

Unsigned

• Round 1: Offensive lineman Gabe Carimi
• Round 2: Defensive tackle Stephen Paea
• Round 3: Safety Chris Conte

Detroit Lions

Signed

• Round 2(a): Receiver Titus Young
• Round 2(b): Running back Mikel Leshoure
• Round 5: Linebacker Doug Hogue
• Round 7: Offensive lineman Johnny Culbreath

Unsigned

• Round 1: Defensive tackle Nick Fairley

Green Bay Packers

Unsigned

• Round 1: Offensive lineman Derek Sherrod
• Round 2: Receiver Randall Cobb
• Round 3: Running back Alex Green
• Round 4: Cornerback Davon House
• Round 5: Tight end D.J. Williams
• Round 6(a): Offensive lineman Caleb Schlauderaff
• Round 6(b): Linebacker D.J. Smith
• Round 6(c): Defensive end Ricky Elmore
• Round 7(a): Tight end Ryan Taylor
• Round 7(b): Defensive tackle Lawrence Guy

Minnesota Vikings

Unsigned

• Round 1: Quarterback Christian Ponder
• Round 2: Tight end Kyle Rudolph
• Round 4: Defensive tackle Christian Ballard
• Round 5: Cornerback Brandon Burton
• Round 6(a): Offensive lineman DeMarcus Love
• Round 6(b): Safety Mistral Raymond
• Round 6(c): Center Brandon Fusco
• Round 6(d): Linebacker Ross Homan
• Round 7(a): Defensive end D'Aundre Reed
• Round 7(b): Receiver Stephen Burton

Amid the frenzied free agent market, NFL teams are also trying to get their draft classes signed in time for the training camps they want to open in the coming days. So lets resurrect our annual draft tracker to keep you abreast of who has signed and who is left.

To this point, the Chicago Bears are the only team with confirmed draft pick signings at this point.

I'll post new versions of this bad boy regularly but not necessarily after every transaction.

Chicago Bears

Signed

• Round 5(a): Linebacker J.T. Thomas
• Round 5(b): Quarterback Nathan Enderle

Unsigned

• Round 1: Offensive lineman Gabe Carimi
• Round 2: Defensive tackle Stephen Paea
• Round 3: Safety Chris Conte

Detroit Lions

Unsigned

• Round 1: Defensive tackle Nick Fairley
• Round 2(a): Receiver Titus Young
• Round 2(b): Running back Mikel Leshoure
• Round 5: Linebacker Douglas Hogue
• Round 7: Offensive lineman Johnny Culbreath

Green Bay Packers

Unsigned

• Round 1: Offensive lineman Derek Sherrod
• Round 2: Receiver Randall Cobb
• Round 3: Running back Alex Green
• Round 4: Cornerback Davon House
• Round 5: Tight end D.J. Williams
• Round 6(a): Offensive lineman Caleb Schlauderaff
• Round 6(b): Linebacker D.J. Smith
• Round 6(c): Defensive end Ricky Elmore
• Round 7(a): Tight end Ryan Taylor
• Round 7(b): Defensive tackle Lawrence Guy

Minnesota Vikings

Unsigned

• Round 1: Quarterback Christian Ponder
• Round 2: Tight end Kyle Rudolph
• Round 4: Defensive tackle Christian Ballard
• Round 5: Cornerback Brandon Burton
• Round 6(a): Offensive lineman DeMarcus Love
• Round 6(b): Safety Mistral Raymond
• Round 6(c): Center Brandon Fusco
• Round 6(d): Linebacker Ross Homan
• Round 7(a): Defensive end De'Aundre Reed
• Round 7(b): Receiver Stephen Burton

» NFC: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South » Unrestricted FAs

A look at the free-agent priorities for each NFC North team:

Chicago Bears

1. Assemble a starting offensive line: As we've noted many times, the Bears have held off any public discussion about their five linemen pending the results of free agency. Well, we're here. It's time for the dominoes to start falling. The first will be whether center Olin Kreutz re-signs. It's generally expected, but nothing is guaranteed. Then, the Bears need to decide whether to pursue any starting-caliber guards or tackles. You would think they'll seek at least one new starter. Will they raid the Atlanta Falcons' glut of linemen? Might they take a flyer on Robert Gallery? We'll know soon enough.
2. Establish a strongside linebacker: The position has largely been held by Pisa Tinoisamoa and Nick Roach over the past two years, but both have expiring contracts. It makes sense to re-sign at least one given the lack of offseason work for a presumptive new starter, and Roach is the younger of the two. If the Bears have another player on the roster they've targeted for this job, it's not readily apparent. While they're at it, the Bears should seek depth at defensive tackle following the release of Tommie Harris. They did draft Stephen Paea, but the Bears might pursue Seattle Seahawks free agent Brandon Mebane as well.
3. Sift through receivers: From a media perspective, at least, there has been more offseason talk than ever suggesting the Bears will/should/might/ pursue a free-agent receiver. This year's class is deep, from Sidney Rice to Santonio Holmes to Randy Moss, and a number of other veterans could be available via trade. Coach Lovie Smith has said he wouldn't mind a receiver bigger than his current trio of sub 6-footers, and Devin Hester has lobbied publicly to sign Santana Moss. I think the increased discussion is largely a product of lockout boredom, but it wouldn't hurt the Bears to add depth so that Hester can be used more efficiently.

Top five free agents: Center Olin Kreutz, safety Danieal Manning, punter Brad Maynard, linebacker Nick Roach, linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa.

Detroit Lions

1. Sign a starting cornerback: The Lions' top cornerbacks under contract are Alphonso Smith and Nate Vasher. Chris Houston, who started 15 games last season, is a free agent, so it's possible the Lions will bring Houston back. Or they could seek an outside upgrade, be it Nnamdi Asomugha or Ike Taylor or Johnathan Joseph. Lions Fever would spike if they can land Asomugha, but they would have to use most of their salary-cap space to do it. For several reasons, the odds are against it.
2. Sort out the linebacker position: DeAndre Levy is the only linebacker assured a 2011 starting job, but even Levy can't be totally sure if he will play outside or in the middle. That answer will come only after the Lions sift through the available free agents. They could pursue one with a background in the middle, perhaps Stephen Tulloch. Or they could seek an outside linebacker to replace the released Julian Peterson. One of their outside positions is likely to be decided by a training camp competition among incumbents.
3. Evaluate right tackles: Early indications have been that Gosder Cherilus has made progress from microfracture surgery on his knee. If there is any question, however, the Lions might want to bolster their depth. Corey Hilliard did a decent job as Cherilus' replacement late last season. But keeping quarterback Matthew Stafford healthy is at a premium this season. Do the Lions want to face the possibility of opening the year with a backup plan at right tackle?

Top five free agents: Linebacker Bobby Carpenter, cornerback Chris Houston, linebacker Landon Johnson, quarterback Drew Stanton, safety John Wendling.

Green Bay Packers

1. Stay the course: It's been well-documented that general manager Ted Thompson hasn't participated much in free agency over the past few years, and it's hard to imagine him changing tack dramatically this summer. Thompson's most important decisions will be deciding which of his pending free agents to re-sign and which ones he should allow to depart.
2. Re-sign place-kicker Mason Crosby: Thompson gave Crosby a second-round tender in February in the event Crosby wound up as a restricted free agent. That move suggested Crosby is in the Packers' future plans and makes re-signing him one of the first orders of business now that he is an unrestricted free agent. Crosby has had some difficulties over the years, but kicking in Green Bay is difficult given the weather and he has made some important adjustments. Concerns about his kickoffs should be minimized by the NFL's decision to move them up 5 yards.
3. Think twice: The Packers appear set to let defensive end Cullen Jenkins depart. They can do so knowing they have a number of intriguing young players to compete for that job, from Mike Neal to C.J. Wilson to Jarius Wynn. But another player the Packers might lose, Daryn Colledge, doesn't have an obvious replacement. Would the Packers shift T.J. Lang from backup tackle to guard? Would first-round draft pick Derek Sherrod, their projected left tackle of the future, get a crash course on step down? It's something to think about and, given the lack of an offseason, might spur further discussion about re-signing Colledge.

Top five free agents: Guard Daryn Colledge, place-kicker Mason Crosby, defensive end Cullen Jenkins, receiver James Jones, running backs John Kuhn/Brandon Jackson.

Minnesota Vikings

1. Address receivers: Are the Vikings about to bid farewell to receiver Sidney Rice, a 24-year-old who is one year removed from an 83-catch Pro Bowl season? There is nothing they can do to stop it at this point, and Rice seems intent on at least testing his value on the open market. The Vikings spent most of last season searching for a suitable replacement when Rice was injured, and that job will intensify this summer. They have added an additional pass-catching threat in rookie tight end Kyle Rudolph. But if they lose Rice, the Vikings must either sign or trade for an established veteran to join Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian (if he makes the team).
2. Find a kicker: The Vikings made no known effort before the lockout to re-sign veteran Ryan Longwell, who has converted 43 of 46 kicks over the past two seasons. It's possible they'll make their move now. But they did not draft a kicker, and if Longwell signs elsewhere, the Vikings will have to scour the always-murky free-agent market. I'm guessing they already have a plan on this issue, but we haven't smoked it out yet.
3. Establish QB depth: We all know that rookie Christian Ponder eventually will assume the starting job. But are the Vikings comfortable with Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar as their only alternatives should Ponder need some development time? I'm not sure about that. I also wonder if making Webb the No. 2 quarterback would limit his opportunities to contribute in other ways, perhaps as a receiver or a kick returner. For that reason, it would make sense for the Vikings to seek a quarterback with more experience to pair with Ponder.

Top five free agents: Defensive end Ray Edwards, linebacker Ben Leber, place-kicker Ryan Longwell, receiver Sidney Rice, nose tackle Pat Williams.

Does Christian Ponder have the kind of team around him to succeed the way Mark Sanchez did with the Jets in his rookie year?

That was the question proposed to me. First off, I will define the "success" that Sanchez had during his rookie season as how far the Jets went into the playoffs, rather than how well the rookie signal-caller performed on the field -- which didn’t impress me.

So, by those standards, I think the answer here is no. Of course, like every team in the NFL, free agency will have a major effect on the Vikings. They could lose exceptional players such as Ray Edwards and/or Sidney Rice. And they obviously will add some new faces during the process as well.

But still, I find it hard to believe that Minnesota ends up as a playoff team in 2011. I love Adrian Peterson. And if Rice is re-signed, the Vikings' skill position players could be very strong with a starting unit of Peterson, Rice, Percy Harvin (another player I love), Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph as the base personnel. You could do a lot worse than surrounding a first-round rookie quarterback with those five.

And, I am very high on Ponder and see him as the most pro-ready quarterback in the 2011 draft class. He is smart, athletic and comes from a more advanced offensive system than many of his fellow high draft pick quarterbacks. I expect Ponder to adjust quite quickly to the NFL, all things considered.

But where the argument in the Vikings' favor falls short is along the offensive line, on defense and with their divisional foes. Of those three factors at work, the defense is the thing that I feel best about for Minnesota to make a deep playoff run. But in reality, outside of Kevin Williams, Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, Chad Greenway, E.J. Henderson and Edwards (if he returns), I don’t see enough quality players or depth on this side of the ball for Minnesota to end up among the top half of the league defensively.

Minnesota’s offensive line, particularly the run blocking, is a huge worry for me. And that isn’t a good recipe for a rookie quarterback. I also think this line is going to prove to be very difficult to fix during just one free-agent period before the season starts. There isn’t one starter with whom I am really comfortable -- and that includes Steve Hutchinson -- nor is there much position versatility among the top linemen on this club.

But maybe the biggest hurdle for the Vikings in 2011 will be their divisional opponents. I don’t think I am alone in saying that Packers are the strongest team in all of football. The Bears, of course, were a final four team last season. Could the Bears take a step backwards? Sure. But I still think they have more going for them than Minnesota right now. And Detroit is building an amazing young nucleus of talent that looks ready to burst out.

So, as it stands during the first week of July, I see the Vikes as the fourth-place team in the NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph was one of many NFC North rookies sitting in Wednesday's session of the NFL Players Association-sponsored rookie symposium. He heard a now-viral talk given by former NFL coach, and current ESPN analyst, Herm Edwards. Rudolph tweeted his favorite line from Edwards: "Everyone wants to get to Heaven, But no one is willing to die."

That's a dramatic way of saying there is a price to be paid to reach your goals. I like it, mostly because it's true.

Green Bay Packers receiver Randall Cobb tweeted simply: "Herm Edwards just preached."

To hear more of Edwards' talk, watch the video.

As some of you might know by now, new Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder has organized and financed a minicamp for Vikings players this week at an IMG Academy in Florida.

Sunday night, IMG indicated that 11 Vikings players were planning to attend. Among the names on that list: Receivers Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian, along with tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

According to multiple reporters who are on the scene, none of those four had arrived as of Wednesday morning. According to Viking Update, Ponder provided explanations for three of the absences. I'm sorry, but that tweet will go down as the greatest list of excuses since Ferris Bueller took a day off.

In sum: Harvin lost his phone, Shiancoe had a late conflict and Berrian missed a flight.

Hopefully. the dog didn't eat their playbooks.

To be fair, no one was obligated to attend this event. There will be other opportunities to gather before the ostensible start of training camp. But now I think you know why some teams are conducting their players-only workouts in private. Namely: to avoid public pressure to attend and discourage public criticism for skipping it.

But I think we can agree that if there is any value to players-only workouts during a lockout, it's to develop timing between quarterbacks and skill players. When the quarterback is new, as Ponder is, you can add a few exponents to that value.

Ponder has taken on a difficult task as a rookie quarterback, trying to operate as a leader in the absence of any alternatives even before he has formally met most of his teammates. He has succeeded in reaching a few of them. Here is the list through a day and a half of practices: Receivers Greg Camarillo and Emmanuel Arceneaux, tight end and Kyle Rudolph, quarterbacks Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar, center Brandon Fusco and safety Mistral Raymond.

I don't think we should draw any long-term conclusions, or develop any deep-seated conspiracy theories, about the Vikings' four most prominent pass catchers all coincidentally being unable to attend this minicamp. I mean, who hasn't lost their phone? Or missed a flight? Let's just say that Ponder is finding out how the NFL works -- a little more each day.

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- The Denver Broncos will likely not get an impact player at their biggest area of need.

The Broncos have made four picks in the first three rounds of the draft and they have yet to take a defensive tackle. Denver bypassed Marcell Dareus at No. 2 and Marvin Austin and Stephen Paea in the second round. Several other defensive tackles went in the first three rounds.

Denver coach John Fox acknowledged that Denver still needs to find help at the position. He indicated it would be a target area once free agency starts. With the two best running games in the NFL in the AFC West -- Kansas City was No. 1 and Oakland was No. 2 in 2010 -- this is an area the Broncos have to address at some point.

Denver didn’t get a chance to take Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph in the second round, so keep an eye out for Portland State’s Julius Thomas. He is a former college basketball player.

Denver took Miami right tackle Orlando Franklin at No. 46. That's the last pick the Broncos got in the Brandon Marshall trade with Miami. Miami also sent Denver a second-round pick last year that Denver used in the trade to take Tim Tebow at No. 25. Franklin is expected to start as a rookie.

I’m surprised that San Diego GM A.J. Smith, a noted draft trader, used all five of his picks in the first three rounds. I thought he’d make at least one deal.

Being taken in the second round didn’t even “cross the mind” of new San Diego linebacker Jonas Mouton.

Some of the better prospects available heading into the fourth round include Oklahoma State running back Kendall Hunter, Texas linebacker Sam Acho, Fresno State linebacker Chris Carter and North Carolina linebacker Quan Sturdivant.