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When the Detroit Lions hired Jim Schwartz as their coach in 2009, hope emerged from the sports analytics industry. Had it gained a patron saint? Schwartz, after all, had acknowledged his interest in the subject during his time as the Tennessee Titans' defensive coordinator, and some girded for the kind of non-traditional, out-of-the-box thinking it might lead to.

There was an obvious test case. Ever since David Romer's groundbreaking 2006 paper, advanced analysts have encouraged NFL coaches to be more aggressive on fourth down. Research showed that the cost of failing was not as severe as conventional wisdom might suggest, especially when compared to the benefits and likelihood of success.

If anything, however, Schwartz has fallen on the conservative side of his already-cautious NFL brethren, providing us an NFC North illustration of the larger trend. Despite objective research and data, coaches still have relatively little stomach for eschewing field goals and punts in favor of the possibility for a touchdown or continuing a drive.

Our friends at Football Outsiders recently published a ranking of the "Aggressiveness Index" for every 2012 coach, measuring how often he went for it on fourth down relative to the league average. The study includes fakes but eliminates obvious catch-up situations as well as plays in the final 10 seconds of a half.

As you can see in the chart below, the NFC North's most aggressive coach last season was the Green Bay Packers' Mike McCarthy, who went for it 11 times in 108 qualifying opportunities. Close observers of the Packers' season, of course, would recognize that at least a few of those occasions were partially related to place-kicker Mason Crosby's midseason slump.

Minnesota Vikings coach Leslie Frazier went for it four times in 104 opportunities, while Schwartz did so on only two of 98, the second-lowest total in the NFL.

Why am I circling back on this topic now? As NFC West colleague Mike Sando and I discussed during an Inside Slant podcast last November, the NFL arrival of former Oregon coach Chip Kelly could shake up current thinking on fourth downs in the way that Schwartz's mere interest in the general topic of advanced analysis did not.

Kelly's aggressiveness on fourth down at Oregon wasn't necessarily an outlier in the college game but would surely stand out in his new role with the Philadelphia Eagles. (As the Philadelphia Daily News noted, Oregon converted 20 of 31 fourth-down attempts last season, double what most NFL teams tried.)

Kelly has downplayed his potential to carry over those trends to the NFL, telling the Daily News that there is a "fallacy and reality" to what he did. His place-kicker's leg strength played a role in decisions, Kelly said, and rarely did he go for it on his side of the field -- a riskier proposition to be sure.

Regardless, here's hoping that Kelly provides a spark that will spread in a copycat league. Fourth downs are the kind of dramatic and intensely strategic plays that can add another layer of intrigue to a game and spur an entire week of conversation and debate.

Consider one of the simplest examples from the original paper Romer wrote as an economics professor at Cal-Berkley.

It's fourth down and goal at the 2-yard line early in a game, a scenario that provides a near-automatic field goal. According to Romer's research, going for it in that situation historically led to a touchdown 43 percent of the time.

Most coaches look at those odds and choose the 100 percent chance of three points rather than about a 50-50 chance of seven. The analyst would say the expected payoff is about the same.

Why? If you fall short of the touchdown, the opponent takes over inside the 3-yard line. Historically, you're still in pretty good position to get the ball back close to scoring position.

My guess is it will take a long time to drag even the most free-thinking coaches into a more aggressive fourth-down approach. The bottom line is that it's scary to give up a near-certain chance for points at a given moment. But that doesn't mean we can't hope. This season, I'll do my best to track our coaches' decisions in such situations and compare them to the risks presented by historic research. We'll see where it goes.

The Minnesota Vikings drafted Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes because, according to coach Leslie Frazier, "he'll be a guy that will come in and help match up with some of the receivers in our division and our league as well."

Rhodes is a solid 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, and he brings a reputation for press coverage from the ACC. Presumably, his size will be important if and when he is matched up on the likes of Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson and others, and at least one of them has already noticed and noted his arrival.

Marshall responded to Rhodes' exuberant draft-night tweet in this subtle but notable way:

“@xavierrhodes27: Vikings!!!!!!!! Baby I'm loving it.”Congrats bro Glory to God. We'll meet soon. twitter.com/BMarshall/stat…

— Brandon Marshall (@BMarshall) April 26, 2013

And we're off…

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- I stood late Thursday night in the Minnesota Vikings' practice facility, mildly surprised that "Crazy Rick" Spielman had used neither of his first-round picks on Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o. Presently, an alarmed staffer cut into Spielman's news conference.

"Rick has to go," the staffer said. "He'll be back with you soon."

Anxious, Spielman jumped off a podium and sprinted upstairs to the Vikings' draft room.

Ah, I thought. Here we go. At the end of a long night, Crazy Rick would find a way to make the long-assumed decision to bring Te'o to Minnesota.

Reporters gathered around phones and a television.

ESPN's Adam Schefter announced partial terms of a deal the Vikings were considering: Surrendering four draft choices to move back into the first round to make a third selection.

Was it Te'o?

Was it a playmaking receiver the Vikings so desperately needed after trading Percy Harvin?

Drama played out in real time Thursday night for the Vikings, who made the biggest splash of the NFL's first round -- and they didn't even take Te'o. They benefitted from an unexpected drop by Florida defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, scooping him up at No. 23, and two picks later grabbed a big cornerback in Florida State's Xavier Rhodes.

Spielman and coach Leslie Frazier then departed the draft room to begin conducting media interviews. On the way out of the door, Frazier asked Spielman if there was a chance to trade back into the first round for one of several players the team had targeted.

According to Frazier, the consensus was no. "Was looking like probably Friday," Frazier said afterward.

So as the draft moved on, Spielman walked downstairs to speak to beat reporters. Frazier popped on a local radio show. In that moment, a call arrived for those who remained in the draft room. The group included assistant general manager George Paton and director of college scouting Scott Studwell.

The New England Patriots were willing to give up the No. 29 overall pick, but it would be costly. If the Vikings wanted back in, they would have to give up choices in the second, third, fourth and seventh rounds of this draft.

Spielman and Frazier quickly reconvened. Even if they met the Patriots' demands, they would have five picks remaining (one in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds, along with two in the seventh). The Vikings had Tennessee receiver Cordarrelle Patterson ranked as the draft's second-most explosive receiver after West Virginia's Tavon Austin, and Spielman said: "We felt like he could be that much of a difference-maker."

So the trigger was pulled, the Vikings drafted Patterson and finished the day with three first-round selections, the first team to have more than two first-rounders since the St. Louis Rams in 2001.

(Te'o, by the way, was not drafted in the first round. With no picks available until the fourth round, the Vikings would have to make another deal to draft him. Chances are they'll need to fall back on a third-tier prospect Saturday.)

I bring you that play-by-play in part because I saw it happen in front of my bloodshot eyes and in part because it demonstrates how the draft doesn't just surprise the fans and media members watching from the outside. Sometimes, it takes the teams aback as well.

In the old days, Spielman and Frazier might have been standing on a patio having a stress-relieving cigarette after selecting Rhodes. In 2013, they were fulfilling media obligations and planning for Day 2.

Yes, it was a startling night from start to finish in Minnesota. The Vikings had rolled through 1,000 separate draft scenarios during pre-draft work, according to Spielman, and Floyd "was not in one" of them. The early guess is that Floyd, discussed by media analysts at one point as a top-five prospect, fell because of the startling run of offensive linemen and pass-rushers ahead of him.

Sometimes, players drop because of previously unreported character issues, but Spielman insisted Floyd checked out "very clean" and admitted the Vikings considered trading up to make sure they got him. Floyd figures as the heir apparent to veteran Kevin Williams, who will be 33 in August and is entering the final year of his contract.

It wasn't stunning to see the Vikings draft a cornerback, but Rhodes' 6-foot-1 frame suggested he would be off the board as well in a league that cherishes big cornerbacks. The Vikings liked Rhodes so much at No. 25 that they shut the door on all possible trade-downs, of which there were several.

At that point, everyone -- including Spielman and Frazier -- all figured the Vikings' night was over. They thought they had a chance to trade up in the second round Friday and draft Patterson, but when the Patriots called, they decided not to take a risk.

"We were very, very aggressive there," Spielman said, acknowledging the high price tag. Patterson spent only one season at Tennessee after playing at Hutchinson (Kan.) Community College, but the Vikings envision him in a role that a raw receiver could fill. He'll start off as a punt and kickoff returner, where Spielman boasted Patterson "is magic" and can "do just as much or more as Percy [Harvin]." They'll also feature him in some of the simple bubble screens and backfield plays they used Harvin in to capitalize on his open-field running ability.

For a refresher on our pre-draft discussion on Patterson, here is a link to his Sports Science video.

The Vikings were hoping to get better in the first round of this draft, and I think they accomplished that. But even they were surprised by how it happens. Sometimes that's how it goes.

 
NFL players are much more willing to accept a reduced role when it will come behind elite players, and I wonder if that's part of Antoine Winfield's thought process as he nears an agreement with the Seattle Seahawks. ESPN's Ed Werder reported the impending deal earlier Wednesday.

With the Seahawks, Winfield would play as a nickel cornerback behind starters Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, arguably the NFL's top tandem. He would be appropriately positioned on a top defense rather than artificially bumped down the depth chart to make room for younger players. The Minnesota Vikings were also planning a reduced role before releasing Winfield last month, but presumed starters Chris Cook and Josh Robinson don't measure up to what the Seahawks boast. If I'm Winfield, I'm more willing to step back for Sherman and Browner than Cook or Robinson, neither of whom outplayed him last season.

Vikings coach Leslie Frazier has repeatedly expressed interest in bringing back Winfield, but they lost their exclusivity by releasing him rather than negotiating a reduced salary first. It's not entirely clear why the Vikings did it that way, and it makes you wonder if Frazier wanted Winfield back more than some of the organization's other decision-makers.

I don't think Winfield harbors ill will toward the Vikings. He's simply taking advantage of his opportunity as a free agent to shop for the best situation. The Seahawks probably offer that.

Percy Harvin was an MVP candidate with the Minnesota Vikings in mid-October, and then he was expendable five months later -- traded to the Seattle Seahawks at age 24.

The move made little sense on the surface. Teams generally do not trade uniquely talented players entering the primes of their careers.

There had to be more to this story, but how much more? How much risk did the Seahawks assume when they paid three draft choices to the Vikings and more than $25 million in guarantees to Harvin? Four days at the recent NFL owners meeting in Phoenix provided an opportunity to chase down answers. Not that Vikings coach Leslie Frazier was much help.

"There are a lot of layers to this situation," Frazier said, "and one day, when [we] sit down and write this book, we'll divulge all the layers. But it's complicated."

The Seahawks have been much clearer about their motivations. They see Harvin as a unique talent and someone whose unrelenting competitiveness -- a source of trouble for Harvin, particularly in his youth -- mirrors the very essence of coach Pete Carroll's program. When they connected with Harvin over Skype immediately following the trade, the multidimensional receiver had a message for them: He couldn't wait to practice against a secondary featuring combative cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner.

That kind of talk has obvious appeal for Carroll, who has made competition his mantra. But where the Seahawks see competitiveness, a general manager from another team saw risk.

"Harvin has been kicked out of programs his whole life," the GM said. "Not just in the NFL, but in high school and junior high. He has never proven to be sustainably coachable."

Harvin always had the talent. He won Virginia high school state championships in the long jump, triple jump, 100 meters, 200 meters and 4x100-meter relay -- all in the same year. But his involvement in multiple heat-of-the-moment altercations led to repeated suspensions, an arrest and even his banishment from a high school sports league. A reported positive test for marijuana at the combine threw up another red flag.

Those incidents are ancient history. Harvin has never served an NFL suspension despite playing in an era when commissioner Roger Goodell has embraced a law-and-order approach to the role.

Harvin, drafted 22nd overall in 2009 after dominating at the University of Florida, has at times been as dynamic as any player in the NFL, scoring touchdowns as a receiver, runner and kickoff returner.

"The best all around player I ever seen or you'll ever see!" teammate and reigning MVP Adrian Peterson tweeted after the Vikings shipped Harvin to Seattle two weeks ago. "I feel like I just got kicked in the stomach."

Only injuries and spotty quarterback play have limited Harvin as a pro. But he was outspoken about his unhappiness in Minnesota last offseason. Reports of trade demands surfaced again more recently, strengthening perceptions of Harvin as difficult.

"I think that’s classic of a competitor that sometimes they push the limits," Carroll said. "You like that because that’s who they are. I don’t have any problem with that. I don’t have any problem with guys being highly, highly competitive. There’s an understanding that we had to come together on. We’ve already talked to Percy. I want him to be as competitive as he can be. We need to make sure it always helps our football team."

The teams drafting Jason Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Mark Sanchez, Andre Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Maybin, Knowshon Moreno, Larry English and Robert Ayers ahead of Harvin would have been much better off selecting Harvin despite repeated warnings. The teams drafting those players never could have leveraged them into what the Vikings are getting from Seattle. Not even close.

Which leads back to the question at hand: How much risk is Seattle taking?

General managers polled at the NFL owners meeting raised a few concerns from a Seahawks perspective.

• Financial risk: Committing $25 million guaranteed to an enigmatic, regularly injured player made some uncomfortable. The Vikings did not come right out and call Harvin uncoachable, but Frazier's comments certainly left that impression. Again, teams don't trade away supremely talented 24-year-old players without reason. The Seahawks are getting a player the Vikings couldn't manage. Not only that, they are empowering that player with all that guaranteed cash.
• Questionable trade-off: Giving up premium draft choices was another issue for some. Seattle traded the 25th and 214th picks of the 2013 draft and a 2014 third-rounder to the Vikings. The players Seattle could have drafted in those slots would have played under team-friendly rookie contracts. For example, the deal Dont'a Hightower signed with the New England Patriots as the 25th pick in 2012 could count less than $8 million against the cap over its four-year life. Harvin's contract is scheduled to consume $67 million in salary-cap space over its life.
• Locker-room implications: The Seahawks have a long list of young, talented players in line for new contracts over the next couple of years. They approach those negotiations having proved in spectacular fashion their willingness to pay absolute top dollar for a player who has never scored a touchdown or made a tackle for them. While it's debatable whether Seattle could have gotten hometown discounts from Kam Chancellor, Sherman, Earl Thomas or the others, they can forget about it now.

The Seahawks can answer the concerns pretty convincingly.

Carroll's ability to reach players is arguably unsurpassed in the NFL. Not many coaches could pull off piping hip-hop music into practices without coming off as phony, but Carroll does that and more. He is the antithesis in style and probably substance to Brad Childress, the uptight former Vikings coach. And with Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell signing off enthusiastically on the trade after coaching Harvin in Minnesota, the Seahawks proceeded without the reservations some teams would have brought to the deal.

"Darrell had a great relationship with Percy that I found out, after talking with Percy, was reciprocated," Carroll said. "They worked together really well. He raved about his competitiveness, raved about his work ethic, raved about his talent. It was just total positive, supportive perspective from Darrell on him. The best perspective that we could have called on was what Darrell told me. That cemented the idea, 'Let’s go for it.'"

The Seahawks, unlike the Vikings, also have a dynamic young quarterback to keep Harvin happy. Harvin flourished when Brett Favre was the Vikings' quarterback. Russell Wilson arrives at Seahawks headquarters around 6 a.m. during the offseason, demonstrating a competitive will that Harvin has said intrigued him.

"It just resonated with Percy," Carroll said.

Giving up high draft picks for the right to overpay a veteran prospect goes against what the Seahawks and most teams believe in philosophically. Seattle obviously felt as though the 25th pick in the draft wasn't likely to return a player with nearly the dynamism Harvin will offer from the beginning. The 2014 third-round pick that was part of the deal represents what Seattle would pay to move up five or six slots in the first round this year.

I was most interested in the potential fallout with Chancellor, Sherman, Thomas and the Seahawks' other Pro Bowl-caliber players working under cheap rookie deals. All will presumably welcome adding to their roster a playmaker with Harvin's credentials, but the dollar signs in their eyes had to grow in size as well.

"We are taking care of all of our guys, every single one of our guys," Carroll said. "We're working Kam right now and we're going to continue to work our guys."

Chancellor is scheduled to earn $1.3 million in 2013, the final year of his contract. Receiver Golden Tate is also scheduled for free agency in a year. Thomas and Sherman are signed through 2014. They're like planes circling over an airport, each eager to land a big-money deal.

One rival coach downplayed the consequences a Harvin-type contract will have in a locker room.

"Players understand the business side of the game," the St. Louis Rams' Jeff Fisher said. "The business side always sorts itself out. Guys go into that last year and tend to pick it up.

"Those things aren't a distraction. Maybe they are discussed off-campus, but not in a locker room."

The Seahawks' ongoing negotiations with Chancellor provide one test case. Recent history suggests Seattle could have other options as well. Chancellor was a fifth-round pick. So was Sherman. The Seahawks have a couple of fifth-round choices in the 2013 draft. Continuing to draft well would remove pressure from negotiations.

"We're not going to pay guys ahead of [schedule] just because we're working with their contracts," Carroll said, "but we know as our guys come up, those are all managed for the future and we have a big plan for all that.

"[GM] John [Schneider] has worked hard at it. And because we have worked so hard at it, we were in position where we had free-agency money to spend and hopefully we will continue to be able to manage it in that fashion."

HIGH ABOVE THE MIDWEST -- I know what you're thinking, even as I blog from the friendly skies en route to NFC North headquarters. Many of you are tweeting it my way: Now that the Chicago Bears and Brian Urlacher have parted ways, would the Minnesota Vikings follow up on their reported discussions with the free agent middle linebacker?

It's true that the Vikings, like the Bears, don't have a starting-caliber middle linebacker on their roster. But all I can tell you is that signing Urlacher would contradict nearly everything that Rick Spielman has said and done in the 15 months since he has been the Vikings' general manager. If anything, Spielman has worked systematically to make the roster younger and to find long-term answers at positions of need rather than applying Band-Aid measures.

A few hours before the Bears announced their decision, I asked coach Leslie Frazier about the team's plan at middle linebacker. Jasper Brinkley, the Vikings' 2012 starter, has signed with the Arizona Cardinals, leaving the position barren at the moment.

"We've got the upcoming draft to try to address it," Frazier said, "and we'll also look at what's available in NFL free agency. It's definitely a position we need to address. We have a void there and we've got to find the right guy. It's a big part of our defense. We have to get better at the middle linebacker position."

Frazier made clear he wants a "three-down middle linebacker" who stays on the field in nickel situations and said "our defense will take a big step this season" if one can be found.

Some of you might like the idea of signing Urlacher and drafting a middle linebacker as his heir apparent. Whether or not Urlacher would like that idea is another question. And in the end, it's really hard to imagine Spielman liking that idea. Stranger things have happened, but this one would be pretty strange.

PHOENIX -- As of this moment, the Minnesota Vikings' top three cornerbacks are Chris Cook, Josh Robinson and A.J. Jefferson. If that concerns you, rest assured the Vikings' coach feels the same way.

"Oh no," Leslie Frazier said Wednesday at the NFL owners meeting. 'We want to definitely add more competition at that position. Chris has been injured in his career and has been off the field for different reasons. Josh is going into his second season. You hope he would continue to ascend but you don't know. And A.J. hasn't proven he can do it 16 games in a row. So we need to address that position in this draft for sure."

The bigger question is whether the Vikings' incoming rookies will compete with that trio, or if Frazier and the Vikings can talk veteran Antoine Winfield into returning in a reduced role after his surprising release earlier this month.

Frazier said he has spoken about the possibility with Winfield, who has yet to take any free-agent visits, and seems encouraged by the possibility.

"He made me believe that that was a possibility, that things could work out here," Frazier said, "that he would be back in Minnesota. I know there are other teams that are calling him to see what his interest is in continuing to play. He gave me the impression that he would like to be able to be back in Minnesota. Now it's just a matter can we work things out financially to his liking as well as to our team's liking."

If he returned, Winfield would serve as the Vikings' third cornerback and play only in nickel situations, a downshift that would cut his snaps by about a third based on how often the Vikings were in nickel last season.

"He's very comfortable being back in that role alone," Frazier said. "That's the best thing for our team. That's the best thing for him, to be able to keep him on the entire field the entire season. He had no qualms with that. He understands why."

Veteran cornerbacks haven't seen much action in this free-agent market, justifying the business end of the Vikings' decision to release Winfield and his $7.25 million base salary. But without knowing how they will fare in the draft, to this point they've left themselves thin at the position. There is no doubt the Vikings would be better off with him on their roster.

PHOENIX -- Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte called it "absurd." Leslie Frazier worried that his MVP running back would be subjected to an increasing number of hits to his knee. The NFC North generated as much opposition to the NFL's proposed crown-to-helmet penalty as any other division, but in the end -- as we discussed Sunday -- the nebulous "player safety" tag has once again carried the day.

All four NFC North teams voted for a rule that passed overwhelmingly Wednesday. Frazier and the Vikings produced a notable about-face; Frazier had reiterated concerns as recently as an hour before the vote, during the NFC coaches breakfast here at the NFL owners meeting. After the vote, however, Frazier said: "The overriding factor regarding player safety kind of overrode [our] concerns."

Look, we all know what happened here. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has made player safety a priority, both for the long-term health of players and the long-term viability of the game. Creating "safer" rules puts those efforts in writing and creates a paper trail, in both a practical and legal sense. I'm pretty sure the NFL doesn't want coaches or other employees publicly questioning its efforts to do so, regardless of the issues at play. The league is making a macro movement in spite of whatever micro issues it might cause.

The rule makes sense in the abstract -- a player shouldn't be allowed to, as the rule is worded, "deliver a blow with the top/crown of his helmet against an opponent" -- but there are practical ramifications that make you wonder how it will be enforced.

Forte noted that running backs naturally lower their shoulders to protect themselves from contact and to break tackles. As a result, the head lowers as well. Will officials recognize the difference between that and an intentional lowering of the head to initiate contact? Frazier wondered if defensive players would go low on tailback Adrian Peterson to avoid the 15-yard penalty of hitting his helmet with theirs.

In the end, those issues won't dissipate. We'll probably have some questionable calls to discuss this season. But go ahead and book it: Anytime a rule change is attached to "player safety," its chances of passing is excellent. It's a sign of our times.

PHOENIX -- In January, the Minnesota Vikings picked up a one-year option on coach Leslie Frazier's contract rather than negotiate a long-term extension. When the move was announced in February, Frazier didn't hide his surprise and disappointment before pledging to push forward into the 2013 season.

Here at the NFL owners meeting this week, I got a chance to speak with Vikings owner/president Mark Wilf about a number of topics, including Frazier's contract. I asked Wilf if he felt compelled to speak with Frazier or otherwise reiterate his support in light of public discussion about the implications of the decision.

Wilf said there has been ample communication on the issue, made clear the team's expectation is to win the NFC North in 2013 and strongly downplayed the possibility of opening negotiations during the season.

"We have a great relationship with coach Frazier," Wilf said. "We've had a lot of communicating back and forth on that. But now we're turning the page to the 2013 season and our focus is on, first, winning our division, which is a very tough division, and we want to get back to where we were a few years ago, and that's the top of our division. We know it's competitive, but that's our No. 1 focus. From there, hopefully it's our best opportunity for our ultimate goal, which is to win the championship."

I don't think that means an NFC North title will be required for Frazier to keep his job in 2014, but it's clear the Vikings want to see more than they saw last season. Asked if there was a possibility of addressing Frazier's contract during the season, as the Vikings did in 2009 with former coach Brad Childress, Wilf said: "Once the season goes, we're not discussing any contractual relationships or anything of that sort."

So one way or the other, the Vikings will face a franchise decision next offseason. There are no more options in Frazier's contract, meaning he is signed through 2014. Given most teams' reluctance to enter a season with a "lame duck" coach in the final year of his contract, the Vikings almost certainly will give Frazier an extension after the 2013 season or fire him. The stakes are as high for this franchise as they have been in a while.

We're Black and Blue All Over:

PHOENIX -- The Detroit Lions drafted a left tackle in the first round of the 2012 draft. In 2013, their longtime left tackle retired. But it's apparently not as simple as connecting the dots between the retirement of Jeff Backus and the presumed ascendance of Riley Reiff at the position.

Speaking to Detroit-area reporters at the NFL owners meeting, general manager Martin Mayhew said "I could see [Reiff] at left tackle" this season but left open the possibility he could play another position as well. Mayhew also touted inexperienced backups Jason Fox and Corey Hilliard as promising, and noted that Reiff can play several positions.

Your best left tackle on the roster should play the position, even if he can also play guard. It's much easier to find a guard than a left tackle, generally speaking. The Lions' indecision on Reiff's position could indicate mixed beliefs on his attitude as a long-term left tackle.

On the other hand, Mayhew might simply not want to telegraph his draft strategy at No. 5 overall. If he names Reiff the starter, it probably rules out the possibility that he would draft a left tackle in the first round.

Continuing around the NFC North:

• The Lions' pursuit of big-time free agents is over, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
• Running back Jahvid Best could spend 2013 on the Lions' physically unable to perform list, notes Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com.
• Lions receiver Calvin Johnson restructured his contract and saved the team $3.4 million against the 2013 salary cap, notes Brian McIntyre of Yahoo's Shutdown Corner blog.
• The Chicago Bears have completely revamped their leadership roles over the past three years. Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune explains.
• Linebacker Brian Urlacher will need to take a massive pay cut to remain with the Bears, writes Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
• The Bears are pursuing free agent tight end Steve Maneri, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
• Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has details of the pay cut Green Bay Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk took last week. In essence, he will earn $7.25 million less than he was scheduled to over the next three seasons.
• Receiver Greg Jennings spoke with retired quarterback Brett Favre before leaving the Packers and signing with the Minnesota Vikings, notes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
• Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette outlines some offseason changes underway in Green Bay.
• Vikings coach Leslie Frazier is upbeat about his team's offseason, writes Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune.
• Vikings ownership has high expectations for Frazier, notes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.

Receiver Greg Jennings agreed to a five-year contract Friday night with the Minnesota Vikings, and here is my highly controversial and thoroughly debatable takeaway:

The deal makes perfect sense for the Vikings. It elevated them from having zero legitimate NFL receivers on their roster to one. You have to start somewhere.

It made plenty of sense for Jennings' former team, the Green Bay Packers. They have three dynamic receivers on their roster and need every ounce of salary-cap space to re-sign key players at other positions -- most notably quarterback Aaron Rodgers and linebacker Clay Matthews.

Where it gets complicated is the impact of this decision on Jennings himself. Whether he admits to it or not, Jennings had an extraordinarily difficult verdict to render -- assuming the Packers had at least made a cursory offer to bring him back for 2013.

And no, I'm not talking about the phantom offense of jumping from one NFC North team to another. I realize some of you will have a hard time understanding this, but Jennings had no obligation to be "loyal" to the Packers or the Packers' fans. This is a business, and as an unrestricted free agent, Jennings had a rare opportunity as a blue-chip player to make a decision based solely on what is best for him and his family. He had every right to capitalize on that.

But was signing with the Vikings best for Jennings? I'm a little hesitant to draw dramatic conclusions because we don't, as of this moment, know how much of a choice he had. We don't know if the Packers made a remotely competitive offer or if the Vikings were his only option.

Think about it for a moment, however. On many levels, Jennings is entering a much less stable environment than the one he left. The Vikings don't have a long-term commitment to either their coach or their quarterback; coach Leslie Frazier and quarterback Christian Ponder will have to excel in 2013 to ensure a return in 2014. The Vikings can't offer the same level of offensive skill players that at least played a role in Jennings' success with the Packers, and for the fun of it, let's also note they're going to make two stadium transitions in the next four years.

Perhaps the Packers made Jennings' decision easy by making only a cursory offer, or less. Maybe Jennings, who already has a Super Bowl ring, liked the idea of spearheading a renaissance in an offense much less formed than the Packers'. But I understand why it took him a few days to take this visit, much less agree to terms on a contract, and I give him credit for accepting a much bigger challenge. (And yes, I know, probably for much more money.)

The move leaves the Packers exactly where we figured they would be when the offseason began: With a receiving corps led by James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. It probably increases the chances of high-priced tight end Jermichael Finley remaining with the team, and it leaves room for the Packers to draft and/or develop the next Greg Jennings. That's how they roll, like it or not.

For the Vikings, of course, it was almost mandatory to sign a player with the pedigree of a No. 1 receiver. The departure of Percy Harvin left them with Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright as the "top" receivers on their roster. That duo would have offered minimal support for Ponder as he gears up for the most important season of his career, and as of now it means that Jennings can count on heavy attention from opposing defenses.

Some might argue that Jennings will rue the day he chose Ponder over Rodgers, if in fact he had a legitimate choice to make there. I would suggest that a first-class receiver, and Jennings certainly counts as one even if his absolute best days are behind him, can elevate a quarterback's play. The Vikings' offense needs more work -- I don't like the idea of Simpson or Wright starting alongside Jennings any more than you do -- but it was going nowhere without a receiver of Jennings' caliber.

As we move into the weekend, we can say with some confidence that the Vikings are better off with Jennings and that the Packers weren't weakened much, if at all, by his loss. Jennings? We'll soon see what lies behind the door he chose.

We started this long day discussing receiver Greg Jennings' pending visit with the Minnesota Vikings, and so we'll end it there as well.

According to multiple reporters in full stakeout mode, Jennings spent Thursday night at dinner in downtown Minneapolis with general manager Rick Spielman, coach Leslie Frazier and defensive end Jared Allen, among others. If this visit follows the form of other such events, the group will reconvene Friday at the Vikings' practice facility to continue discussions.

Typically, that's the time when contract figures and other business matters are handled. For what it's worth, there is no reading into the details of this visit. I've seen the Vikings sign players after taking them out to dinner the night before, and I've seen others leave town without a contract. All we can say is that Jennings is interested enough to make the trip and listen.

We'll let you know of any and all updates Friday.

 
That didn't take long. Hours after the Kansas City Chiefs released quarterback Matt Cassel, the Minnesota Vikings scooped him up. We're not yet sure of the financials, but obviously the Vikings quickly met Cassel's price in the shrinking market of available veteran quarterbacks.

The first thing many of you are asking is whether Cassel will be given a chance to beat out starter Christian Ponder, who struggled during parts of the 2012 season but finished strongly. The Vikings have repeatedly denied any plans to stage a training camp competition. Meanwhile, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Cassel is expected to get a chance to win the job.

Here's how I would put it: Cassel has 48 career starts and led the Chiefs to the playoffs in 2010. He struggled the past two years and committed 19 turnovers in nine games in 2012. But he is a good enough player, with enough pedigree and experience, that Ponder would be vulnerable if he regresses or otherwise struggles early in the 2013 season.

That wasn't the case last season with fellow youngster Joe Webb in the No. 2 role, and here is how coach Leslie Frazier put his expectation for the position while speaking to reporters last month:

"We really like the progress that Christian has made for us, Christian Ponder, and we expect in his third season he's going to take another jump, and part of that will be what happens this offseason. So, we're not at a point where we're looking for a quarterback to come in and move Christian at all. We expect him just to keep getting better. So, it’s a little bit different for us at the quarterback position than maybe some of those teams you mentioned. We feel like we have our guy in place. We just want to see him keep improving."

At the very least, I think we can all agree that the Vikings are in better shape with a 31-year-old backup (in May) who has 48 career starts on his résumé than Webb, an athletically gifted but still raw passer who bombed in a surprise start against the Green Bay Packers in the 2012 playoffs. Frazier said last month that Webb would compete with whatever veteran the team brought in for the No. 2 job, but I don't envision a scenario where Webb beats out Cassel in training camp.

So the next question becomes: What will the Vikings do with Webb? It wouldn't make much sense to have him collect dust as a No. 3 quarterback, given his athletic skills. Is this the offseason the Vikings commit to developing him as a multipositional player?

Here's what Frazier said about that possibility last month:

"If we got to the point where we felt that there was somebody that beat Joe out, you've go to do whatever you've got to do to make your team better. If we felt like that was the best thing for Joe and the best thing for the team, then you consider it. That would be saying that you found someone that is better than Joe."

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest the Vikings have found someone better than Joe. We'll see soon enough whether that sparks a long-awaited experiment. But have they found someone better than Ponder? Based on what we know about Cassel's recent play, the Vikings had better hope not.

Are two NFC North teams bidding for free agent receiver Greg Jennings? That's the word from several reporters, including Alex Marvez of Fox Sports.

According to Marvez, Jennings is considering a return to the Green Bay Packers if he doesn't sign first with the Minnesota Vikings. The unofficial deadline for the Vikings, notes Rob Demovsky of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, could be midnight Wednesday.

The Vikings, with somewhere around $20 million in salary cap space, are in position to pay Jennings whatever they need to. They re-signed veteran Jerome Simpson earlier Tuesday but obviously have a huge need at the position following their trade of Percy Harvin.

Jennings' skills as an intermediate route runner, and his smooth after-the-catch style, would certainly mesh with the Vikings' offensive scheme. The Vikings can probably offer him more money and playing time, which are of course important. On the other hand, there is no way they can compete in a quarterback comparison, a key factor for receivers.

The same goes for franchise stability. Jennings is undoubtedly aware that Vikings coach Leslie Frazier is entering another prove-it year after the team declined to offer him a contract extension. The chances of the Vikings having a different coach in 2014 is a lot higher than the possibility of a change in Green Bay.

Jennings could face a tough decision, and it's worth noting he has come nowhere close to burning bridges with the Packers. He could wind up there after all, if he's willing to sacrifice some money and perhaps a few snaps.

The Minnesota Vikings planned to use veteran cornerback Antoine Winfield in a part-time role last season and were admittedly surprised that he made it through all 16 games as a full-time starter. As Winfield approached his 36th birthday, however, the Vikings clearly weren't counting on another such surprise.

The Vikings were poised to release Winfield on Tuesday after he refused a pay cut commensurate with the part-time role they once again had planned for him. (Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com has more.) He was set to earn $7.25 million in 2013 and count the same amount against the salary cap, which is decent money for a No. 1 corner. The move was surprising but, in retrospect, perhaps we should have expected it. Vikings coach Leslie Frazier said last month at the NFL scouting combine that playing full-time in 2013 "is not good for him [and] I don't think it's the best thing for our team." NFL teams rarely pay players higher salaries than their projected role calls for, making Winfield a primary candidate for a pay cut.

But it's also easy to understand why Winfield would balk after tallying a career-high 101 tackles and breaking up 12 passes in his remarkable renaissance season. Winfield's surprising play was one of several reasons the Vikings outpaced all projections and won 10 games last season. Regardless of the salary he might fetch in a market glutted with veteran defensive backs, Winfield might not have appreciated the gesture.

So comes to an end a remarkable tenure in which Winfield earned distinction as arguably the NFL's toughest pound-for-pound player. Since the moment the Vikings signed him in 2004, Winfield was a tackling technician, rarely out of position and almost never allowing someone to escape his grasp, and his coverage was good enough to be a three-time Pro Bowl player.

His departure leaves the Vikings with two unproven young players atop their depth chart at cornerback: Chris Cook, a second-round draft choice in 2010 who has never played in more than 10 games in a season; and Josh Robinson, a third-round draft pick last year who served as the Vikings' nickelback for part of his rookie year.

My guess is the Vikings' master plan included one more year with Winfield before his contract expired after the season. Cook and Robinson were going to ascend at some point. Now, it appears that economics and pride have made that time now.