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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Texans in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): Quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson return from injuries and have exemplary seasons, providing big plays that sync up beautifully with another excellent campaign by running back Arian Foster. New starters at right guard and right tackle take over and play well and the offensive line continues to be a team strength, providing time for Schaub and room for Foster. They show it’s about the scheme and players with the traits that fit it, not necessarily about the specific people in the lineup.

In conjunction with the excellent offense, Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense picks up where it left off, swarming opposing quarterbacks and finding big plays that tamp down offenses just about every week.

This talented, deep squad does not get caught up in success and shows it can stand toe-to-toe with teams like the Packers and Patriots. In so doing, the Texans give Houston something it’s never had before: a Super Bowl team.

Nightmare scenario (7-9): Schaub either can’t stay healthy or can’t return to form and he or T.J. Yates winds up throwing more to rookie receivers who struggle than to Johnson, who battles another round of leg injuries. The right side of the offensive line proves a huge issue as the team loses any hint of the cohesion that was such a key in 2011. That means trouble for Foster as well, and he doesn’t break through to the second level nearly as often as we’ve become accustomed to.

Defensively, the Texans can’t generate the kind of consistent pass rush they mounted last season as offenses do a better job countering than they did in Phillips’ first season heading up the 3-4. The secondary is asked to hold up too long and an injury to Johnathan Joseph leaves them susceptible at cornerback, the one spot where they lack depth. Opposing quarterbacks find too many big plays against them.

The return games are worse, not better, with Jacoby Jones now playing in Baltimore.

A nearly unanimous pick to win the AFC South before the season, the Texans fail to make the playoffs.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Texans and why.

Matt Schaub's been Houston’s starting quarterback for five seasons, and he’s played all 16 games only twice. You can’t blame him for a bad luck injury like last year’s right foot Lisfranc issue that required serious surgery. Still, to be a big-time quarterback, you need to be on the field.

Schaub has yet to play in a postseason game. Although the Texans weren’t able to hold everything together off their first playoff team, they still have a strong roster. This should be a playoff team that can challenge for the AFC South crown in 2012. But it won’t get to the postseason or do well in it if Schaub doesn’t have a solid, consistent and healthy season.

His contract situation complicates things. This is the final year of his deal, so he has a lot at stake. I think they’ll look to keep Schaub in place no matter what happens. If he’s banged up and the Texans don’t impress with a deep playoff run, Schaub will get less of a jackpot than he would if they ran away with the division and went to the Super Bowl.

Schaub can be excellent running coach Gary Kubiak’s offense, and the quarterback and coach are probably married for the long term. Kubiak was last year’s pressure point and he performed. This year it’s on Schaub.

ALAMEDA, Calif. – Carson Palmer gave himself a refresher course this offseason in what watching football without the modern convenience of high definition is like.

It brought him back to the late 1980s, when he watched football just because he liked what he saw without knowing the complications of the game.

This time around, it was for the benefit of his NFL career.

As part of his indoctrination into the West Coast offense, Palmer, 32, watched as much of the scheme's attack as he could. He went all the way back to the Bill Walsh San Francisco 49ers.

“It was pretty cool going back to those days,” said Palmer this week during a break in the Raiders’ organized team activities. “There were no HD films back then, so it was kind of gritty. … It brought me back to when I was 8 years old and I just wanted to see (San Francisco running back) Roger Craig score a touchdown. … You look at the game so differently now, but it was a good learning experience.”

Palmer’s West Coast cram sessions included several incarnations of the scheme. However, a primary focus was the 2010 and 2011 Houston Texans. Palmer watched every game the team played the past two seasons.

New Oakland offensive coordinator Greg Knapp was Houston’s quarterbacks coach in those seasons. Knapp is bringing a version of the West Coast offense to Oakland. He is a disciple of the 49ers’ West Coast offense and has used versions of it as a coordinator in San Francisco, Atlanta, Oakland (in 2007-08) and in Seattle.

Palmer was in a West Coast offense in his first year at USC, at age 18. In a season during which he will turn 33, Palmer must adjust to the offense in what will be a crucial year for him personally. The previous Oakland regime traded two premium draft picks for Palmer last season in a desperate attempt to stay in the playoff hunt when starter Jason Campbell went down for the season with a broken collarbone.

Oakland was 4-2 when Campbell went down. It was 4-6 after acquiring Palmer from the Bengals. Thrown into the Oakland system after holding out in Cincinnati, Palmer’s rust showed as he threw 16 interceptions and 13 touchdown passes for the Raiders.

Palmer is now comfortable in Oakland, and though he is still adjusting to Knapp’s system, he says he is thrilled with the playbook because Knapp’s offense has so many variations. There are some classic West Coast schemes, but there is also zone-blocking running and other modifications. Palmer said he believes it is the most varied offense he has been in.

He thinks it will blend nicely with Oakland’s speed at receiver. Mostly, Palmer is confident his transition to the offense will be easy because of Knapp himself.

“He’s been fantastic with me,” Palmer said. “He’s amazing. He is a teacher in addition to a coach. … It will really help me get this offense down.”

New Oakland coach Dennis Allen said Palmer was a major reason why he chose to hire Knapp as his offensive coordinator. He said Palmer’s ability to adjust to Knapp’s offense made the Palmer-Knapp pairing a “great fit” in Allen’s mind.

Allen scoffs at concern that Palmer might not be athletic enough to run Knapp’s offense. He has repeatedly said he thinks that Palmer is athletic as Matt Schaub, who flourished under Knapp in Houston. Palmer often ran around the field freely Tuesday in addition to participating in a multitude of plays, including several deep passes, which mesh with his big arm.

“He moved around today,” Allen said Tuesday. “He’s plenty athletic.”

Allen also said the key is to be flexible -- not only on offense, but on defense, where the 4-3-based Raiders will use multiple front-seven sets. Allen -- who was Denver’s defensive coordinator last season -- saw the benefit of in-season coaching when the Broncos went to an option offense for Tim Tebow midway through the season. He said Tuesday he learned from that experience.

“We are running the 'West Coast offense,' but we’re going to do a lot of things,” Allen said. “We are going to take advantage of what Carson does best.”

While hopes are high in Oakland that Palmer will show he was worth the high price, some worry about the fit. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. is in that camp.

“I have a lot of concerns with Palmer adjusting to the Raiders’ new offense,” Williamson said. “First off, it was the former staff/philosophy that wanted Palmer. He doesn’t anticipate routes well. When the receiver becomes open, Palmer throws it. Therefore, defensive backs get a better break on the ball and run-after-the-catch potential is more limited. Also, he has heavy feet and not a movement-based quarterback, which is ideally what they now want in Oakland. I do think Knapp will adapt his system to fit Palmer -- he will have to.”

To help Palmer adjust to playing for Knapp, Oakland signed Matt Leinart to be his backup. Leinart backed up Palmer at USC and the two Heisman Trophy winners have a close bond. Leinart was in Houston the past two seasons.

Leinart said this week he is happy to help Palmer with any nuances of Knapp’s offense. He said keys for Palmer will be to use bootlegs and rely on what should be a strong running game.

"I'm here for Carson, to help him with reads, to let him know that certain things are very good, just to stay on it," Leinart said. "Because when you're taught a new offense, there's things that you're not used to; you're used to doing it a certain way. Sometimes the reads are a little different. I told him today, 'Just stick with this route because it's a great route for us. It's going to be a great route for us.'"

And if he needs any reassurance, all Palmer has to do is flip on the old, gritty, grainy game film of the West Coast offense of yesteryear.

Earlier this week, Texans owner Bob McNair talked about negotiating contract extensions for coach Gary Kubiak and general manager Rick Smith.

That got me thinking: Who are the AFC South players who need contract extensions before they get anywhere close to an expired contract at the start of the 2013 league year?

Here are my top six:

1) Matt Schaub, Texans quarterback

I understand there are some non-believers. In five seasons with the Texans, Schaub has played a full slate of games only twice. He’s not been consistently clutch in big moments.

Still, I see him as a quality engineer of Kubiak’s offense. I think the team loves him and has faith in him. And although rookie T.J. Yates did some good work while filling in for Schaub last season, I don’t think the Texans would be comfortable handing the team over to Yates after he's been in the league only two seasons, especially if he plays only a little or not at all this season because Schaub is in the lineup.

I’d make sure Schaub’s fully recovered from the serious right foot injury that ended his 2011 season. If he plays well in the first month of the season, I’d talk to his agent. Even if they wait until after the 2012 season plays out, gauging his health and seeing how far he can take them, Schaub is their guy.

He’s not the best player on this list, but as a starting quarterback, he goes to the head of the line. Is he a top quarterback in the league? My count says he’s 13th or 14th among current starters. You’d like better, but can do far worse and I don’t think you can project Yates to rank any higher. The Texans aren't going to be drafting at the top of the first round, and none of the guys better than Schaub are going to be hitting the market. So there is no place to go to upgrade.

2) Connor Barwin, Texans outside linebacker

The Texans projected Barwin could be a quality pass-rusher when they drafted him out of Cincinnati in 2009 with a second-round pick. Last year, in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense, Barwin was a consistent pass-rushing force, playing nearly 95 percent of the team’s defensive snaps and recording 11.5 sacks.

Barwin is part of the reason the franchise could afford to let Mario Williams depart as a free agent. The Texans simply cannot allow Barwin to follow Williams out of town. And with the increase in 3-4 defenses around the league, there are a lot of teams that would make a play for Barwin if he came free.

3) Daryl Smith, Jacksonville linebacker

Smith’s known for being an underrated player.

He’s an anchor for the Jaguars, and I expect he’ll shine in a healthy defense in 2012. The unit has a chance to be great, and Smith will shine if the coverage behind him is good and the rush in front of him can be consistent. They have the people for both of those elements to be in place.

The Jaguars would certainly like to keep a starting linebacker corps of Smith, Paul Posluszny and Clint Session together.

4) Duane Brown, Texans left tackle

I don’t think he’s regarded around the league as a premier guy who would draw a ton of interest if he became a free agent. But he is regarded as an excellent player in the Texans' line scheme. The team is moving forward, replacing Mike Brisiel at right guard and Eric Winston at right tackle.

The Texans did what they had to in order to keep center Chris Myers. They will need to do the same with Brown. They must hold together the key pieces of what was an excellent group in 2011. Brown is vital for the success of Schaub, or Yates, as well as running back Arian Foster.

5) Jason McCourty, Titans cornerback

He’s a solid player on the rise. He plays a position where he will have a chance to establish himself as a productive leader who needs to be in place for the long term.

Cortland Finnegan is gone. And the team is weak at safety, where Michael Griffin is getting one last chance under the franchise tag and Jordan Babineaux owns a starting spot at least in part because the Titans don’t have other options.

McCourty is a smart player who should be the best member of the secondary in 2012 and beyond provided they are able to keep him.

6) Terrance Knighton, Jaguars defensive tackle

He suffered a serious eye injury in a bar incident not long ago, but indications are he should be OK for training camp. Knighton has had weight issues since he came into the league. He seems to have gained better control of that, and general manager Gene Smith made it clear to Knighton that if he proves he can remain fit he’ll be taken care of in the long run.

Knighton moves very well for a very large man, and the Jaguars believe if their defense will be good, it will be because Knighton and Tyson Alualu anchor the middle, stuffing the run and moving the quarterback off his spot.

Also not under contract for 2013 and likely worthy of new deals: Texans safety Glover Quin, Colts cornerback Jerraud Powers, Jaguars cornerback Derek Cox, Titans tight end Jared Cook and Colts receiver Austin Collie.

We’re often Doubting Thomases by nature, and that’s kind of where I fall on Matt Schaub's foot.

I’ll believe he’s ready for training camp when I see him looking 100 percent at the start of camp.

But Gary Kubiak and Schaub himself said again Monday that the quarterback will be fine for camp. His 2011 season ended Nov. 13 when Tampa Bay’s Albert Haynesworth twisted up Schaub’s right foot, causing a serious lis franc injury that needed to be repaired surgically.

“Doing great,” Schaub said at the team’s golf tournament. “Feeling real good. Making a lot of progress with rehab, so things are right on schedule ...”

“It’s just a matter of time. There’s no more major milestones, it’s just staying with the program, staying true to the plan, and really the next milestone is training camp in my opinion. That’s when everything really gets going.”

Kubiak said the team will have to hold Schaub back through OTAs and minicamp.

“If we’re not paying attention, he’ll do everything, but we’re not going to let him do that,” Kubiak said. “We’re going to put the reins on him, so to speak. He will do drill work, could throw some 7-on-7, but he will not be put in a team environment where he might get tripped up or something like that happens. He’s ready to go. It’s us being cautious with him right now.”

I think the Texans would have been a big part of the conversation about AFC favorites before cap troubles and free agency stripped out some key guys, particularly the right side of the offensive line, where guard Mike Brisiel hit the jackpot with Oakland in free agency, and Eric Winston was released to cut costs.

Still, this is a team that endured a ton of injuries last season, including losing Schaub for six regular season and two playoff games.

A healthy version of the Texans in a division where the competition isn’t particularly strong might not be in position to get a bye and home-field advantage, but would certainly qualify as the favorite to win the AFC South.

“Well, it’s great to be in that [Super Bowl contender] conversation,” Schaub said. “We’ve made a lot of strides, it’s been a lot of hard work and blood, sweat and tears put into this over the years. To finally be there is great.

“But they’re just words, and we need to go out and prove it year-in and year-out. So we need to turn around and go and be right back there at the end of the season this year.”

How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

NFL schedules are out, and Peyton Manning and the Broncos have a tough road ahead. The Texans look good with a healthy Matt Schaub; Russell Wilson draws comparisons to Drew Brees.

Considerations as the NFL's regular-season schedule release nears Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET:

• Calculating strength of schedule using records from the previous season has limitations. But as ESPN's John Clayton pointed out, significant swings in schedule strength from one season to the next do seem to influence team records. He sees the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens as teams that might have to play better to avoid losing ground.

• Strength of Schedule

  NFL team-by-team strength of schedule breakdown. Nation blog | Opponents
  

  The Giants play the NFL's most difficult projected schedule, a first for a Super Bowl champion, according to Elias Sports Bureau. AFC champion New England plays the easiest one. The team with the easiest schedule has missed the playoffs in each of the last five seasons. That includes the Patriots in 2008, when they finished 11-5 without Tom Brady, who was injured. The Arizona Cardinals have missed the playoffs three times in the last five years while playing the NFL's easiest projected schedule. Last season, the Patriots went 13-3 against the second-easiest schedule.
• The St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings play the toughest home schedules at .563. Neither team appears equipped to win many games on the road. Tough combination.
• This schedule marks the 11th since the NFL realigned into eight four-team divisions, welcoming the Houston Texans as the 32nd franchise in 2002. Since then, 27 franchises have claimed at least one of the 80 division titles available. A reflection of parity's rise? Sorry. Twenty-seven franchises claimed at least one of the 60 division titles available from 1992-2001, when there were six divisions and between 28-31 teams.
• OK, but has the distribution of those division titles changed significantly? Again, not really. Three teams won 30 percent of division titles from 1992 to 2001 (Pittsburgh, Dallas and San Francisco each have six). Three teams won 27.5 percent of division titles in the subsequent decade (New England has eight and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have seven apiece).
• The Patriots and Rams can expect bye weeks to recover from their overseas trips to face one another in London. That is reasonable, but consider this: The distance New England will travel for its game against the Rams -- 3,250 air miles each way -- only moderately exceeds the 2,720 miles Seattle will travel for its game against Miami.
• This schedule features rematches for eight of 11 postseason games from last season: Steelers-Broncos, Giants-Falcons, 49ers-Saints, Giants-Packers, Broncos-Patriots, Ravens-Texans, Giants-49ers and Patriots-Ravens. The major differences this time around: Peyton Manning instead of Tim Tebow in Denver; no Sean Payton in New Orleans; the return of Matt Schaub to the lineup in Houston; and Randy Moss' reincarnation in San Francisco.
• The three playoff games from last season without 2012 rematches: Giants-Patriots, Lions-Saints and Bengals-Texans.
• Spending 42.1875 seconds analyzing each of the 256 games on the schedule would require three hours, or the time ESPN and NFL Network have set aside for their schedule announcement shows.
• One matchup date is already set. The Cowboys and Giants open the regular season on Wednesday, Sept. 5, making this the ninth consecutive year that the Super Bowl champion has kicked off the season at home in prime time.

The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers showed interest in former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck last offseason.

What might happen if Hasselbeck hits the market again in 2012?

The question comes to mind while Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams makes a strong push for quarterback Peyton Manning.

Adams' interest, expressed emphatically over the weekend, initially seemed like bluster. But with Manning and the Titans meeting Wednesday, there's at least a chance. Manning would get to face his former team, Indianapolis, and the happy-with-Matt Schaub Houston Texans two times apiece per season.

If Manning lands in Tennessee, the Titans would proceed with 2011 first-round choice Jake Locker as their backup and projected future starter. Hasselbeck would be out.

The Cardinals could make room for Hasselbeck by declining to pay a $7 million bonus due to Kevin Kolb by Friday. We're dealing in the hypothetical at this point, but so are the teams. As much as the Cardinals want Manning, they must prepare alternate strategies. They could have a choice between Kolb and Hasselbeck if Manning landed in Tennessee. Hasselbeck would upgrade the position on the field, in my view, while giving the Cardinals a veteran mentor for Skelton.

Hasselbeck ranked about the same as Kolb in NFL passer rating last season, but much higher in Total QBR. Hasselbeck suffered from losing top receiver Kenny Britt to a season-ending injury. The Cardinals would presumably welcome his ability to make quick decisions, a problem area for Arizona last season.

Quite a few NFC West watchers have also asked whether Kolb might land in Seattle if the Cardinals released him. My sense is that Seattle could be in the market for a range of quarterbacks at sub-starter prices. Matt Flynn and Chad Henne are visiting this week. Kolb would present another option if the Cardinals parted with him.

Manning would be the only available quarterback Seattle would pay starting money this offseason, in my view. Previous reports have suggested the Seahawks were not in contention. The latest news story from ESPN's Chris Mortensen offers at last some hope even though Seattle does not appear to be under consideration at this time.

"Manning has not eliminated any of the teams with which he has previously met -- the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, or Miami Dolphins, nor has he closed the door on possibly meeting with other teams," the story says.

As for the 49ers, they appear most likely to re-sign Alex Smith. Hasselbeck would be an obvious alternative for them if he became available and Smith's situation with the 49ers changed.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Let's hop around to seven things I took away from the NFL scouting combine with an AFC South takeaway on each:

1. There are a lot of intriguing receivers, but some insiders don’t expect even Justin Blackmon to be a quick, high-impact guy like A.J. Green and Julio Jones were last year. It’s the beginning of hole-punching season and scouts and analysts will pick people apart. But while there are a lot of talented receivers coming out, if you are a team that needs immediate impact, one strong opinion says you’d be wise to shop in a pretty good free-agent market.

What it means to the division: The Jaguars have to land at least one big-time guy in free agency. I nominate Vincent Jackson. The Colts need to hold onto Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon.

2. The top guys seem like sure things: Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III and USC left tackle Matt Kalil could go 1-2-3 if someone trades into St. Louis’ No. 2 pick. I’ve not heard anyone raising any real issues with any of the three or with LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne. The quarterbacks are expected to be franchise guys, the tackle can protect a franchise guy and the corner can take away the franchise guy’s top target.

What it means to the division: There is no suspense at all about what the Colts are going to do and Luck’s combine visit to Lucas Oil Stadium was the first of many. Claiborne could be irresistible if he is there at No. 7 for the Jags.

3. Position values can be overrated. Historically, guards and safeties are not regarded as early first-round values. But this draft may feature singular guys at each spot, and it makes little sense to pass on Stanford guard David DeCastro or Alabama safety Mark Barron if you have a hole at the position. They are both drawing raves.

What it means for the division: Both probably disappear after the Colts and Jaguars have picked first and seventh but before the Titans pick 20th.

4. Quinton Coples is going to be a scary pick. The North Carolina defensive end gets some people talking about Julius Peppers. But his effort in his final year with the Tar Heels was questionable at best. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said it looked like Coples “had a union deal” the way he went through the motions. The team that takes him won’t have a guarantee joining its roster, it'll have a guy a defensive line coach will need to figure out.

What it means for the division: The Jaguars could go into the draft still needing a rush end, but the knocks on Coples don’t make him seem like a match with GM Gene Smith at all.

5. There is a flurry of new information teams will be gathering for a couple more days. But when scouts and personnel executives get back to their offices Wednesday, the film will once again be the prevalent measure they put to work as they stack their boards. Forty times, bench press numbers, Wonderlic scores and interview notes will all factor into grades. But the most significant information gained in Indianapolis is typically the hands-on medical information training staffs gather. Details of issues there may also be the biggest secrets.

What it means for the division: Nothing different than for anyone else. We don’t know what we don’t know, and the intrigue is a big part of why this whole process is so insanely popular.

6. News nuggets from coaches and GMs are more and more difficult to pry loose at this stage of the year. We learned Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu had knee surgery, the Colts have made a contract offer to Pierre Garcon he didn’t accept, the Texans still see Matt Leinart and T.J. Yates competing for the No. 2 quarterback job and the Titans might overpay for a veteran edge rusher. Beyond that? Not much. A lot of generalities as secrecy ruled the day.

What it means for the division: Run through the AFC South coaches and GMs. Who’s the most dynamic, chatty guy of the bunch? I think it’ll be Colts coach Chuck Pagano in time. Five of the eight guys are in their first or second season in the job. Everyone is pretty reserved at this point, even the veterans of the group, Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak of the Texans.

7. We need to go find the specifics of a different rule every year. Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and Pagano both said they had not seen Peyton Manning throw. They didn’t say they aren’t allowed to see Manning throw. As it turns out, though, NFL rules don’t allow for executives beyond medical staff to watch even a rehabilitating player work at this point. While I don’t believe there is a decision still to be made, it’s interesting that the Colts' new duo at the top will only be able to hear reports from medical people and not see for themselves by the March 8th bonus deadline for Manning.

What it means for the division: Every team in the division will have a question at quarterback heading into camp: Is Matt Schaub’s foot healed? Can Matt Hasselbeck hold off Jake Locker? Does Blaine Gabbert get better? And how effective can Luck be from the start?

INDIANAPOLIS -- T.J. Yates showed himself to be a capable NFL quarterback after both Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart went down for the Texans, winning the franchise’s first playoff game.

But Gary Kubiak just told the media at the NFL scouting combine that Yates won’t go into camp as the No. 2 if he has the same three quarterbacks on the roster now.

“If we lined up going into camp tomorrow and I’ve got all three of those guys back, I know who my one is,” Kubiak said. “I think what I would do is have T.J. and Matt [Leinart] go back and battle for the backup spot behind Schaubie.

“I think both of those guys did well with their opportunity. It’s hard to fault Leinart with what happened to him. He played a half of football and was playing very well (before getting hurt). They’re still both young players making their way to the top.”

But the Texans need to find cap savings, and Leinart is due a $3 million base salary in 2012. He could be at risk because of that.

Kubiak is confident that Schaub will be recovered from surgery to repair a Lisfranc foot injury in plenty of time for camp.

The coach said Schaub called him last week to invite him to play a round of golf.

“He’s doing great,” Kubiak said. “… He’s out of his boot, he’s walking, he’s doing everything he can do. He’s in every morning. I think our expectations are for him, once we get to [organized team activities], he will do everything, probably be excluded out of team work just to keep him out of harm’s way.

“But all indications are that he will be full speed sometime in May and will be ready to go in camp."

At long last, we start to unveil ESPN.com’s All-AFC South Team.

We’ll start with the offense.

It’s a tough assignment.

The second guy at some spots -- like Houston running back Arian Foster -- is superb, while the top guy at other spots was hardly as good and was not so clearly better than his competition.

But we forge ahead.

WRs: Wide receivers were not great this season, with Andre Johnson missing too much time to be eligible and not one Jacksonville player at the position worth a look. Indianapolis’ Reggie Wayne remained productive on a team that played three bad quarterbacks and was unable to have many offensive days of note. Tennessee’s Nate Washington topped 1,000 yards and was a prime third-down target. He blossomed in a season when the Titans were desperate after Kenny Britt was lost early on.

LT: Houston’s Duane Brown gets the nod after a fine season. He was probably the second-best guy (to center Chris Myers) on one of the very best lines in the NFL. But Tennessee’s Michael Roos was very steady again and Jacksonville’s Eugene Monroe emerged as a player closer to the kind the Jaguars expected and need him to be. Both deserve mention.

LG: I struggled to find a left guard that was worthy of a spot here, so I reluctantly leave the spot open. The second-best guard in the division was Houston’s Mike Brisiel and, like Jacksonville’s Uche Nwaneri, he plays on the right. One film-watcher I spoke with said I should just go with the entire Texans group, but others thought left guard Wade Smith dropped off from his 2010 performance. Tennessee’s Leroy Harris pass-blocked well like all the Titans, but was part of the team’s run struggles.

C: Myers led Houston’s line, perhaps the best in the NFL. He’s super smart, efficient and effective. He’s also very much the group’s tone-setter and leader. Considering how much the team's scheme relies on the unit working together with lateral movements and cutting, Myers' leadership is incredibly valuable.

RG: A lot of Jaguars linemen were in and out of the lineup as the team had to shuffle and leaned on one rookie, Will Rackley. Nwaneri may have even outranked Monroe as the steadiest guy on a line that help spring Maurice Jones-Drew for a league-high 1,606 yards on a team that could hardly throw the ball.

RT: Tennessee’s David Stewart was very good, but Eric Winston had a very strong season. Winston wins out over Stewart because he was more balanced and the Texans were far more balanced.

TE: Not a great year for guys at a position that could be stacked if everyone was healthy for the full season and producing as they are capable of doing. I was leaning toward Tennessee’s Jared Cook based on a solid finish. But Cook didn't do enough early and scouting associates steered me to Owen Daniels, who was not at his best but was still a threat who helped offset the stretches without Johnson.

QB: Matt Schaub didn’t play enough for the Texans to offset Matt Hasselbeck's season. While Hasselbeck didn’t maintain the high level of play he showed early on, he was the most consistent and productive guy in the division and the only quarterback not named Warren Moon to pass for 3,500 yards for the Titans/Oilers.

FB: Greg Jones of the Jaguars blocked for the best running game in the division and the most productive running back in the division. Case closed.

RB: If we weren’t in a quarterback-dominated era and if running well translated to winning more, then Jones-Drew of the Jaguars would be in the running for offensive player of the year. Such things are not happening in today’s NFL. That does not detract from his remarkable season, which is what took to win this spot over Foster.

Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle recently wrote that if Peyton Manning is available, the Texans should be at the head of the line.

Sorry, Matt Schaub. Thanks for your service.

Schaub might be a solid quarterback, but a healthy Manning is more than solid. He is an all-time great.

No one knows if we are if we are talking about a healthy Manning, and he’d come with more risk of suffering another neck injury. Presuming he’s OK, in my view, you can look at all but six teams in the league and say the same thing Solomon is saying about the Texans. Simply insert the name of 25 other presumed starting quarterbacks in the Schaub slot in the above passage and it is intriguing.

Most teams aren’t big on scrapping long-range plans.

But most teams should be willing to change course given a chance at an all-time great quarterback in the rare instance when adding him is feasible and it would open a window during which they’d rank as a Super Bowl contender.

Much has been written about the teams most likely to court Manning the hardest: the Jets, Dolphins, Redskins and Cardinals top most lists.

Much has been said about an ideal fit: Add him to San Francisco, shore up the receivers and the Niners would be a Super Bowl favorite.

Let’s look at the scenario dreaming fans of the other three AFC South fans may be letting creep into their brains:

Houston

As Solomon writes, “Once Manning is let go he should be as interested in the Texans as they would be in him. There might not be a better fit for him in the NFL.”

The Texans could dominate a weak division. Gary Kubiak is a great offensive mind. Manning would be paired with an excellent run game and a fantastic receiver in Andre Johnson. The defense should continue to be quite good.

My feeling: It’s nice to imagine, but I just can’t picture the Texans going after him with the all-out sales pitch he’s likely to get from a lot of other places. They feel they now have good insurance for Schaub with T.J. Yates. But if you boil down the best option, it’s be Manning. Cap room would be an issue.

Jacksonville

New owner Shahid Khan has said he’s willing to spend and there is not a move that could make a bigger splash.

The Jaguars have excellent defensive personnel and if they add a rush end and re-stock at corner, they’ll be a top defense. They have the reigning rushing champ.

Their quarterback was horrible as a rookie. Put Blaine Gabbert behind Manning, acquire two or three receivers for him to throw to and the Jaguars would be instant contenders more than able to challenge the Texans.

My feeling: It makes sense and the Jaguars should take a swing even though it falls well outside their typical approach under general manager Gene Smith. I don’t imagine it’s the most attractive market for Manning, though he could really help put it, and Khan, on the map.

Tennessee

It won’t be long before those who still love Manning for what he did at the University of Tennessee clamor for him to finish his career with the Titans. It would mean the Titans part with Matt Hasselbeck and that Jake Locker would be planted on the bench longer than was the initial plan.

But put Manning on this team, with a great pass-protecting line, a healthy Kenny Britt, a stable of targets including Jared Cook, Nate Washington and Chris Johnson and the offense is instantly more dangerous.

My feeling: It’s too far outside the box for new general manager Ruston Webster to try it. But if owner Bud Adams fell in love with the idea and dictated that it happen, it would be a far better idea than the last time he forced a quarterback on his people.

I’ll go against my own credo here for one post.

Generally if you ask me now how I like a team next year, I’m going to ask for time. Can I see what they do in free agency? Can I see how they draft? Can I see what everyone else does?

But as the Texans wrap things up today, it’s hard not to look at them with a great deal of positivity. They’ve got a green neon up arrow attached to them, flashing brightly.

Never mind losing Mario Williams for the year, never mind how much time they played without Andre Johnson. If Matt Schaub hadn’t suffered a serious foot injury at Tampa Bay on Nov. 13, the Texans very well could have been one of the top two seeds in the playoffs and very well could have been the most well-rounded team in the AFC playoff field.

“You always wonder a little bit and you always will,” linebacker Brian Cushing said. “But you’ve got to play with what you’re dealt and what you have. The adversity we went through, next year’s team is going to be so much stronger from it.”

It’s dangerous to presume a team picks up where it left off.

Everybody starts from zero when training camp opens and Gary Kubiak will have to sell his guys on that, make sure that no one heads into the offseason thinking they’ve made it.

Presuming the mindset is right and everyone is healthy, this is a team that should head into the 2012 season with as good a chance to represent that AFC in the Super Bowl in New Orleans as anyone.

“We’re going to get better every year,” cornerback Johnathan Joseph said. “The sooner we can back on the field, the better. This is our first time around on the playoffs and I know that we will be back. The sky is the limit for this team.”

BALTIMORE -- Thoughts on the Texans’ 20-13 loss to the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium:

What it means: The Texans blew a gigantic opportunity to get to the AFC Championship Game. Although they outplayed the Ravens for much of the afternoon, they didn’t do enough to overcome two early mistakes and paid the price. T.J. Yates had the Texans in good position for a drive that could have forced overtime, but he threw a jump ball for Andre Johnson that was picked by Ed Reed just before the two-minute warning. The sting and regret will last a good while, but the season will be rated a giant success once we look at it from a broader perspective.

What I didn’t like: Houston committed two early gaffes that would have killed a lot of teams given the setting. Jacoby Jones foolishly misplayed a punt that the Ravens recovered, and Yates threw a bad interception to Lardarius Webb. Baltimore turned both takeaways deep in the Houston end into touchdowns. Yates wound up with three interceptions.

What I liked: The pass rush on Joe Flacco was a constant source of trouble for Baltimore. He was sacked five times, including three times by rookie end J.J. Watt in the second half. Flacco felt the heat even on the rare occasion when there was not any, but the Ravens' protection scheme was often overmatched. Johnson had 111 receiving yards, and Arian Foster had 132 rushing yards.

What I wonder: Why doesn’t Kareem Jackson turn his head or play the ball? A couple of completions from Flacco to Anquan Boldin came on excellent throws into small windows with Jackson in close coverage. If he’d turned as the ball arrived, he’d have had chances to break up a play.

What I also wonder: If Matt Schaub and Mario Williams played in these playoffs, where would the Texans be standing?

What’s next: An offseason with reset expectations for a team that’s likely the favorite to repeat as AFC South champ and be a popular Super Bowl pick. There is a big decision ahead on Williams’ contract situation. There will be a lot of rehab for Schaub, who’s recovering from foot surgery.