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Brandon from St. Paul, Minn., wants to know how contracts work for undrafted free agents.

"I could be mistaken," he writes, "but I can't imagine many receive multi-year deals. What happens when someone like Doug Baldwin proves to be a huge asset?"

Mike Sando: Baldwin became the first undrafted rookie free agent since Bill Groman in 1960 to lead his ream in receptions and receiving yardage.

That was great for Baldwin, but arguably even better for the Seattle Seahawks.

The collective bargaining agreement requires undrafted rookies to sign three-year deals. Baldwin received a $17,500 signing bonus on a deal averaging about $470,000 per year. That's great money in the real world, but not for an NFL player leading his team in key statistical categories.

Baldwin is pretty much stuck. The Seahawks hold his rights for the next two seasons. At that point, they can tender him as a restricted free agent, discouraging other teams from making offers. The team could seek an extension at any time, but I see little reason for the Seahawks to do that at this point.

Brandon's question is a good one as teams hold camps for drafted and undrafted free agents. All four NFC West teams have rookie camps beginning Friday. The undrafted free agents will sign three-year deals. Quite a few others will participate in camps on a tryout basis, with three-year deals potentially awaiting them.

Securing mandatory three-year deals for undrafted free agents stood as a small victory for NFL owners in labor negotiations. Teams can terminate those contracts at any time without paying future salaries, but players have no realistic recourse if they perform well enough to stick around. Holding out wouldn't make any sense.

Baldwin wasn't the only undrafted rookie to make an impact in the NFC West last season. The 49ers were happy with defensive linemen Demarcus Dobbs and Ian Williams. They'll have left guard Mike Iupati's younger brother, Andrew, in camp on a tryout basis this weekend, Matt Barrows reports.

Seattle's Brandon Browner was undrafted and new to the NFL last season, but he had played professionally in Canada.

Raise your hand if you had the San Francisco 49ers selecting Aldon Smith with the seventh overall choice in the 2011 NFL draft.

Not seeing many hands out there. Not seeing any hands, actually.

OK, let's try this again.

Raise your hand if you had the Seattle Seahawks selecting James Carpenter at No. 25.

Hmmm. Not seeing many hands out there. Not seeing any, actually.

Do not feel bad. Even if you knew which 32 players would become first-round picks in a given NFL draft, there would be more than 263 decillion possible combinations.

The number looks like this: 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000.

With that in mind, our 2012 NFL Blog Network mock draft comes guaranteed not for accuracy but for its ability to promote conversation, a process that has already begun here on the NFC West blog.

"Kendall Wright pick makes no sense" CHI-TOWN-BULLS protested upon seeing the Baylor receiver projected for the49ers at No. 30.

More on that in a minute.

We penciled in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III at the top with a reasonable degree of confidence. Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon fell third through sixth. Most choices seemed logical, but somewhere among the top five or 10 selections, an NFL team breaks from projected form, tapping into those 263 decillion combinations.

Two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars obliterated mock drafts by selecting Tyson Alualu with the 10th pick. Last year, four quarterbacks went among the top 12 choices, with Christian Ponder a surprise choice for Minnesota at No. 12.

My thinking for the NFC West was rather straightforward:

• Rams at No. 6: Blackmon was an easy choice. The team has an obvious need for a wide receiver. Blackmon is widely regarded as the highest-rated one in this draft class, to the point that some question whether he will be available to the Rams. Going in another direction for this mock would have represented over-thinking a simple situation. Sure, St. Louis could trade back or select a player at another position. Richardson or Claiborne would carry appeal if available. But when Blackmon was available, I turned in the imaginary card right away.
• Seahawks at No. 12. I wondered going into the mock whether Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly might be available for Seattle in this slot. Would the team take an inside linebacker that early? San Francisco fared well taking Patrick Willis with the 11th pick in 2007. Scot McCloughan, now a top Seahawks personnel executive, was the driving force behind the Willis decision. Would the Seahawks see Kuechly in a similar light? They do need help at linebacker, after all. The thought became a fleeting one when Kuechly went to Carolina at No. 9. That made it easier to focus on the highest-rated pass-rushers. Quinton Coples was the choice because he seemed to be the most talented one available, based on scouting reports.
• Cardinals at No. 13. This choice was tougher than the previous two. I went with Alabama's Courtney Upshaw, figuring he might fit the profile for a pass-rushing outside linebacker in the Cardinals' 3-4 scheme. He's on the shorter side at not quite 6-foot-2, and there is no clear consensus on whether Upshaw projects as an outside linebacker. The height factor seemed less important given that Arizona patterns its defensive scheme after the one Pittsburgh has used under Dick LeBeau. The Steelers' LaMarr Woodley (6-2) and James Harrison (6-0) get the job done. Could Upshaw enjoy situational success the way Smith did as a rookie for San Francisco last season? Receiver Michael Floyd was a consideration for Arizona. I thought the Cardinals needed improved quarterback play more than they needed improved receiver talent.
• 49ers at No. 30. Wright was the choice simply because he appeared to be the highest-rated receiver available, but the 49ers could easily go in another direction. Quite a few mock drafts have linked Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill to the 49ers, but he was not available to them in this mock, having gone 22nd to Cleveland. I was drafting more for position than for the specific player. The 49ers could use another cornerback. Perhaps Janoris Jenkins would have been a better value choice. He went 31st to New England in our mock. The 49ers could use a starting right guard, but they might already have one in Daniel Kilgore, a 2011 draft choice. Besides, how many first-round picks can one team use for offensive linemen? Current starters Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis were first-rounders. Ultimately, the 49ers are picking this late for a reason. They don't have as many clearly defined needs as less successful teams. They're in good position to keep an open mind.

I used ESPN's 2012 NFL Draft Machine to make selections and keep general track of which players remained available as the mock unfolded. Toggling between the overall list and specific position lists made it easier to balance value with need.

This conversation is to be continued.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Arizona Cardinals

Key free agents: DE Calais Campbell (franchise tag), CB Richard Marshall, OLB Clark Haggans, WR Early Doucet, T Brandon Keith, G Deuce Lutui, K Jay Feely.

Where they stand: A strong finish to the 2011 season on defense gives the Cardinals a glass-half-full feel heading into free agency. Going from 1-6 to 8-8 was an impressive achievement. Arizona does have serious concerns on its offensive line. The situation at tackle is particularly questionable even if Levi Brown returns (and maybe especially if he returns, depending on your view). The line concerns might actually dissipate some if the team lands Peyton Manning, a quarterback with the ability to beat pressure with quick throws. But tackle is still an area that needs addressing for the long term. Injuries throughout the offensive backfield raise questions about that area as well. Kevin Kolb (concussion), Beanie Wells (knee), Ryan Williams (knee) and Anthony Sherman (ankle) missed extensive time or played at a diminished level for stretches.

What to expect: The Cardinals are one of the teams chasing Manning. That pursuit could consume them for the short term. Landing Manning would signal the end for Kolb in Arizona. The Cardinals have until March 17 to exercise a $7 million option on Kolb, the quarterback they acquired from Philadelphia for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a fat contract. I'm expecting a resolution to Manning's situation before the Kolb bonus comes due simply because interest in Manning should be high enough to accelerate the process. The Cardinals had about $3 million in salary-cap space entering the week, according to ESPN's John Clayton. That figure could increase substantially once the team releases Brown or reworks his contract. Arizona still has strong coaching ties to Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, but it's an upset if the Cardinals seriously pursue any of the aging veterans recently released by the Steelers. Developing young talent is the priority now. Re-signing Marshall, who fared well at corner, should be a priority. Does free-agent linebacker Stewart Bradley still factor prominently into the team's plans, particularly at such a high price?

St. Louis Rams

Key free agents: WR Brandon Lloyd, G Jacob Bell, CB Justin King, OL Adam Goldberg, LB Chris Chamberlain, G Tony Wragge, TE Billy Bajema, WR Mark Clayton, DT Gary Gibson, P Donnie Jones.

Where they stand: The Rams have no interest in staying the course from a personnel standpoint after going 15-65 over the past five seasons. They will seek fresh talent almost across the board as Jeff Fisher's new coaching staff seeks players for its schemes. The Rams are seeking playmakers in particular, starting at wide receiver. The offensive line needs addressing, although the Rams might try to minimize the turnover at offensive tackle for the short term, figuring they cannot afford to create new needs. But former starting center Jason Brown, benched last season, appears unlikely to return. The team also needs two starting outside linebackers, starting defensive tackles and perhaps two starting cornerbacks on defense.

What to expect: Mass roster turnover. I could see the team retaining as few as one or two players from its list of 21 projected unrestricted free agents. The Rams have a disproportionate amount of their salary cap tied up in recent high draft choices Sam Bradford, Chris Long and Jason Smith. The rookie wage scale will provide them cap relief even if the team remains among the teams picking very high in the 2012 draft. Bradford and Long are cornerstones. Smith could stick around at a reduced rate. The team still has hope for him under new offensive line coach Paul Boudreau. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan and defensive lineman Jason Jones, both free agents from Tennessee, have ties to Fisher and could make sense for the Rams. Despite the need for playmakers on offense, the Rams did not use the franchise tag on Lloyd, their most talented receiver. Questions persist about how effective Lloyd might be outside Josh McDaniels' offense.

San Francisco 49ers

Key free agents: QB Alex Smith, CB Carlos Rogers, FS Dashon Goldson (franchise tag), G Adam Snyder, WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Josh Morgan, G Chilo Rachal, FB Moran Norris, LB Blake Costanzo.

Where they stand: Coach Jim Harbaugh has said it's a bit unsettling heading through the offseason with his starting quarterback unsigned. Smith and the 49ers are expected to reach agreement eventually. This relationship will almost certainly continue even if Smith does reach free agency without a deal in place. Smith would not fit nearly as well anywhere else. Harbaugh likes to use the word "equity" when describing players he wants to keep. The 49ers would rather bring back Smith than invite the disruption that Manning would bring, were they able to land him. The team needs help at wide receiver and possibly cornerback, depending upon what happens with Rogers. Getting Goldson at the relatively reasonable franchise rate ($6.2 million) was a plus for the 49ers' continuity in the secondary.

What to expect: Not a whole lot, most likely. The 49ers were a good team last season after taking a low-keyed approach to the free-agent market. They will presumably show interest in Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace and any high-profile, productive receiver with the talent to upgrade their offense. It's a small upset if the 49ers land one of them, however, because their philosophy is built on a measured approach resistant to overpaying. They will have to address the receiver position in free agency one way or another, however. Re-signing Morgan would help. Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, Mario Manningham, Plaxico Burress and Robert Meachem are among the other options in free agency. An upgrade at right guard would help the line, but the 49ers might be apt to develop 2011 draft choice Daniel Kilgore after investing first-round choices in their left tackle (Joe Staley), left guard (Mike Iupati) and right tackle (Anthony Davis).

Seattle Seahawks

Key free agents: DE Red Bryant, LB David Hawthorne, LB Leroy Hill, OL Paul McQuistan, DE Raheem Brock, DL Tony Hargrove, FB Michael Robinson, RB Justin Forsett, QB Charlie Whitehurst, LB Matt McCoy, TE John Carlson, LB Heath Farwell.

Where they stand: The Seahawks' long-term quarterback situation hangs over them as they head toward the 2012 draft with only the 12th overall choice. The team has built up the rest of its roster to a point where sticking with Tarvaris Jackson as the primary starter could hold back the team to a degree it did not through much of last season. Upgrading the pass rush is another priority for the Seahawks. With defensive end Raheem Brock publicly stumping for Seattle to land Manning, his former teammate, I couldn't help but wonder which one of them had a better shot at earning a roster spot with the team in 2012. It might be Manning, even if the Seahawks are relative long shots for his services. Brock failed to provide the pass-rush push Seattle needed opposite Chris Clemons. Linebacker is another position the Seahawks need to address, whether or not Hawthorne and Hill return.

What to expect: The Seahawks have roughly $30 million in cap space, according to Clayton, and will make every effort to land Manning. They feel they've got a shot as long as they can persuade him to get on a plane and check out what they have to offer in terms of the roster, coaching, facilities, ownership and more. If Manning goes elsewhere, I would expect the Seahawks to consider Green Bay quarterback Matt Flynn. Securing him at a price lower than what Arizona paid for Kolb would be the goal. As badly as the Seahawks want to upgrade the position, they have said they will not panic. Overpaying for Flynn could represent panic in their eyes. On the pass-rush front, I'm increasingly skeptical the team will shell out for Mario Williams. The price could be too high for a player Houston has decided to let hit the market. Re-signing Bryant is a priority, but using the franchise tag for him was never an option given the $10.6 million price. A deal slightly north of the one teammate Brandon Mebane signed seems likelier if Bryant returns.

A look at my all-NFC West picks for the 2011 season, beginning with the offense:

• San Francisco's Michael Crabtree had competition from Doug Baldwin and Brandon Lloyd for the second receiver spot behind Larry Fitzgerald. Baldwin was the best on third down. Lloyd made the most spectacular grabs. Crabtree was a starter within the division all season and an aggressive blocker. He also caught more passes. Baldwin would have made it if we had space for a slot receiver. But with Crabtree making a few big plays, including an outstanding grab for a 41-yard gain at Seattle with the NFC's second seed on the line, he had the edge.
• Arizona's Daryn Colledge edged out the 49ers' Mike Iupati at left guard. Colledge, as a seasoned veteran, was more consistent. Iupati was outstanding on his best plays. Colledge, signed from Green Bay in free agency, upped the standard for the position. I thought he was strong as a run blocker in particular.
• Seattle's Max Unger overcame a slow start to beat out Arizona's Lyle Sendlein and San Francisco's Jonathan Goodwin at center. Unger picked up his game beginning with the Seahawks' strong rushing performance at Dallas. He looks like a long-term starter.
• The right side of the offensive line won out by default. The 49ers' Anthony Davis was the only right tackle in the division to start all season. Seattle's Breno Giacomini finished the season strong and could remain the starter next season. St. Louis' Harvey Dahl was an easy choice at right guard even though he finished the season at right tackle.
• The NFC West produced four strong candidates at running back. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch was an easy choice after leading the league in rushing since Week 9. He was a threat after contact, as a receiver and even when opponents seemed to have him tackled. The Rams' Steven Jackson edged out the 49ers' Frank Gore for the other spot mostly because Gore's production diminished as the season progressed. I didn't like leaving off Gore, because I respect the way he plays, but he also dropped too many passes this season.
• Alex Smith was the easy choice at quarterback.

Those were the primary considerations. I'll be back with defense and special teams. The chart breaks down my all-division choices for offense since 2008.

The comments section is now open. As always, let's work through our differences with civility and restraint.
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» NFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South » AFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South

Perfect sense: Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson, Andy Lee, David Akers, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are past Pro Bowl selections enjoying strong seasons. Their selections made perfect sense. No St. Louis Rams made it. Steven Jackson was worthy of consideration, but the team's 2-13 record made his exclusion understandable.

Patrick Peterson's four touchdowns on punt returns made him an extremely worthy if somewhat surprising choice over Devin Hester, whose reputation figured to count for something.

It was good to see voters recognize the NFC West's talent on special teams and in the secondary. Wilson and Seattle's Earl Thomas are the starting safeties. Carlos Rogers is a starting corner and Seattle's Brandon Browner, a first alternate, could very well join him in the game itself because at least one of the NFC starters, Charles Woodson, could be playing in the Super Bowl.

Made it on rep: From the NFC West? Are you kidding? This division usually fights for whatever it can get. Wilson made it on reputation last year, but he was very much deserving this time, even though it came at the expense of Seattle's Kam Chancellor, a first alternate. None of the players selected made it on rep, in my view.

We could debate the worthiness of a few, including 49ers free safety Dashon Goldson. But he didn't have much of a rep. He made big plays for a 12-3 team and got noticed despite some inconsistencies in his game. The 49ers' success cleared the way for Goldson and another first-timer, left tackle Joe Staley.

Frank Gore always deserves consideration and his numbers say he did not make it strictly on reputation, but a case can be made that other backs were producing at a higher level more recently. Gore's dropped passes have been a problem as well.

Got robbed: Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, San Francisco's Aldon Smith, St. Louis' Chris Long and Arizona's Calais Campbell come to mind immediately.

Lynch has arguably run more impressively than any back in the conference of late. He ended the 49ers' streaks without allowing a 100-yard rusher (36 games) or a rushing touchdown (15 games). Lynch was a second alternate. He has a chance to earn a spot given that Matt Forte is injured and might not play in the game. I'm not sure which NFC back is first alternate, but Lynch would move up the list if Minnesota's injured Adrian Peterson held that distinction.

Aldon Smith has 14 sacks as a rookie, but he didn't make the Pro Bowl. In fact, Smith did not even show up on a list of 49ers alternates featuring NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Blake Costanzo, Vernon Davis, Ted Ginn Jr., Jonathan Goodwin, Mike Iupati, Ray McDonald, Bruce Miller and Donte Whitner.

Long has 13 sacks for a team that almost never faces favorable pass-rushing situations, but with multiple high-profile sack artists in the NFC, he did not make it. The Cardinals' Campbell gets overlooked playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, but he's been a dominant player. At least teammate Darnell Dockett was named an alternate.

Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.

A few changes for NFC West players stood out in final fan voting for the 2012 Pro Bowl.

The San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith moved up one spot to No. 1 among players listed as defensive tackles. Two other 49ers, guard Mike Iupati and strong safety Donte Whitner, each fell one place. Iupati is fourth. Whitner is fifth. Teammates Ray McDonald and NaVorro Bowman, each ranked fifth at their positions last time, did not crack the top five in final fan balloting.

The Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald moved up one spot to third among wide receivers.

Players and coaches vote this week. The NFL announces results Dec. 27.

The first chart shows total votes received for players ranking among the top five at their positions in final fan balloting, by division. The second chart shows NFC West players ranked among the top five and how their rankings changed since our last update one week ago.

Among players not listed, the Cardinals' Adrian Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch stand out as deserving of consideration. The impact Arizona's Patrick Peterson has made as a punt returner also stands out. There are others deserving consideration as well.

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Five things I noticed while watching the St. Louis Rams' most recent game, a 23-20 home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals:

• Defensive scheming still evident. It's been a tough season for the Rams' defense. I'm inclined to think personnel, not scheming, is primarily at fault. The coaching staff continues to draw up blitzes producing free shots on opposing quarterbacks. That was the case about five minutes into the game when the Rams brought safety Darian Stewart to the line of scrimmage at the last moment, suggesting seven defenders could be coming on a blitz. Two defenders on the left side dropped into coverage, leaving Cardinals right guard Rex Hadnot with nobody to block. The left guard and left tackle went in opposite directions to pick up their rushers, leaving a free path for Stewart to shoot into the backfield unblocked. Stewart sacked quarterback John Skelton quickly, killing the drive.
• Defense vulnerable on early downs. The Rams allowed 5.1 yards per play on first down, 8.1 yards per play on second down and 3.9 yards per play on third down. They allowed only 3.2 yards per play and no plays longer than 14 yards when using sub packages on defense, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But with Beanie Wells gashing the Rams' base defense, it's clear St. Louis needs the most improvement from its front seven, even while injuries at cornerback get most of the attention.
• Stewart could be missed in run game. The 228 yards Wells gained could have been much more without a couple open-field tackles by Stewart, the Rams' big-hitting, somewhat inconsistent safety. A concussion will prevent Stewart from playing against San Francisco.
• Rough one for Laurinaitis. The Cardinals, specifically left guard Daryn Colledge, effectively blocked Rams middle linebacker James Laurinaitis. I'll be interested in seeing how Laurinaitis fares when the 49ers' left guard, Mike Iupati, comes his way. Inside linebackers benefit or suffer from the defensive tackles playing in front of them. The Rams were without Justin Bannan in the Arizona game. Fred Robbins, coming off a career-best performance in 2010, hasn't stood out this season.
• Sharing the blame for punt return. Patrick Peterson's 80-yard touchdown on a punt return stretched a 13-10 Cardinals lead to 20-10 late in the third quarter. So many factors beyond punt coverage enabled the return. Two plays before the return, guard Jason Brown and tackle Harvey Dahl whiffed on their blocks, allowing the Cardinals to tackle Steven Jackson for a loss, setting up third-and-long. Peterson made a physical tackle to stop the Rams short on third down. And with the Rams facing fourth-and-1, a false-start penalty against C.J. Ah You prompted the Cardinals to change their personnel. Arizona had its defense on the field to prevent against a fake on fourth-and-1. The punt-return team came onto the field once Ah You's penalty changed the situation to fourth-and-6.

I'll be heading over to Candlestick Park shortly. No NFC West teams play early games this week. Sounds like a chance to check out the tailgating scene. The forecast calls for clear skies, moderate temperatures and the 49ers' first NFC West title since 2002.

Coaching changes and overall franchise instability tend to have long-term ramifications.

While Aaron Curry's new contract with the Seattle Seahawks comes after an organizational overhaul in the Northwest, Taylor Mays' trade from the San Francisco 49ers to the Cincinnati Bengals reflects changes in Santa Clara.

Mays no longer fit with the 49ers after the team fired coach Mike Singletary and replaced most of his staff. The 49ers made it clear Mays had little value to them when they notified teams throughout the league of the 2010 second-round pick's availability.

Teams had to know Mays would be a candidate for release, but the Bengals aren't exactly the most attractive suitor from a free agent's perspective. That might explain in part why Cincinnati swung a trade instead of taking their chances.

The trade will return an undisclosed draft choice, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports.

Mays joins 49ers castoffs Nate Clements and Manny Lawson on the Bengals.

The 49ers are fortunate most of their 2010 draft class still fits following the change from Singletary to Jim Harbaugh. First-rounders Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati are starters. The team thinks third-round linebacker Navorro Bowman has a bright future. Sixth-rounder Nate Byham was emerging as a top blocking tight end before suffering a season-ending injury.

Lots going on, including the San Francisco 49ers' search for a starting center.

Adding to an earlier item, San Francisco has interest in longtime Chicago Bears center Olin Kreutz, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.

• Why Kreutz would make sense: Though aging, Kreutz would provide an upgrade at the position for the 49ers. His toughness and leadership would set a positive, powerful example for a young offensive line stocked with recent 49ers draft choices. Think Mike Iupati, Chilo Rachal and Anthony Davis could learn something from him? Kreutz would also give coach Jim Harbaugh a veteran leader of his own -- someone he brought in with a specific purpose in mind -- to go with all the players Harbaugh is inheriting. Kreutz has missed only one game in the last 10 seasons and none since making 15 starts in 2002. He's as tough as they come.
• Why the 49ers might want to hold off: Kreutz is 34 years old and has to be nearing the end. Very few offensive linemen remain productive at this stage, let alone past it. The 49ers have had tough luck recently with another older center, Eric Heitmann. But wait ...

The more I try to find reasons against adding Kreutz, the more I feel like I'm stretching.

The 49ers could do a lot worse. They've drafted a couple of interior offensive linemen and hope to groom them for roles in the future. They've already invested heavily in their line through the draft. I like the idea of bringing in an established veteran center to help Harbaugh establish a mindset for younger players to follow.

» AFC Future Stars: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

A team-by-team look at the players I expect to be the most dominant in the NFC West from 2014-2016.

NFC West teams have drafted eight players among the Top 10 overall selections since 2008. No other division has landed as many.

The Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers should, therefore, have a few future stars on their rosters. And they do. I've singled out four of them, one per team, for consideration as part of our Dream Team project this week.

Russell Okung, Seahawks tackle: By now regular visitors to the NFC West blog have read plenty about the talent that makes Okung such a bright prospect at left tackle. Some Rams fans have heard enough about Okung and think their team's young left tackle, Rodger Saffold, should get stronger consideration after exceeding expectations as the 33rd player chosen in the 2010 draft. I won't bore them with more generalities. Instead, let's consider a few specific examples suggesting Okung has the temperament, not just the talent, to excel for years to come. Three examples of Okung's aggressiveness stand out as I look back on his rookie season: the way Okung drove back and ultimately ticked off Chicago's Brian Urlacher during Justin Forsett's touchdown run in Week 6; the way Okung clobbered Kansas City's Mike Vrabel in Week 12 when it wasn't really necessary; and the way Okung blasted Carolina's Captain Muderlyn during an interception return in Week 13.

Sam Bradford, Rams quarterback: The NFL's offensive rookie of the year will be only 26 years old when the 2014 season begins. The Rams went from 1-15 without him in 2009 to 7-9 with him in 2010. Bradford played a bigger role than anyone in turning around the Rams. Defenses caught up with Bradford and his diminished receiving corps late last season, but the arrow is pointing up overall. Bradford is only getting started. He had 11 touchdown passes with only one interception from Weeks 6-12. Bradford finished 2010 with rookie records for completions (354) and pass attempts (590). Only Peyton Manning has passed for more yards as a rookie in NFL history. Bradford also answered questions about his durability, playing every offensive snap.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers quarterback: This is a more tenuous projection and even a stretch. The young players I've singled out from other teams are safer bets. Guard Mike Iupati was a candidate, but even the best guards aren't really stars so much as they're valued contributors. Linebacker Patrick Willis would have been an obvious choice -- too obvious. He'll still be only 29 in 2014. Tight end Vernon Davis should remain in his prime from 2014 to 2016. He'll also be in his 30s by then, something I hadn't noticed when considering Davis for a video we shot this week. Receiver Michael Crabtree was a consideration. I went with Kaepernick because he has uncommon physical skills and a promising mental makeup, and he'll presumably get good coaching from Jim Harbaugh. He'll push veteran Alex Smith for the starting job this season. If all goes to plan, Kaepernick will be entering his third full season as the starter when the 2014 season rolls around.

Patrick Peterson, Cardinals cornerback: Peterson appeared twice on our Dream Team ballot, once as a cornerback and also as a return specialist. There's no such thing as a sure bet coming out of college. Peterson looks like one. The physical talent he possesses is obvious. His confidence and strong presence persuaded me to list him as a future star even though Peterson hasn't even lined up for a minicamp practice, let alone for a regular-season snap. Peterson's decision to drop 10 pounds to disprove speculation that he might evolve into a safety seemed to show Peterson has the right makeup. His talents in the return game will give him an opportunity to make an immediate impact, diminishing the pressure upon him to excel immediately as a cornerback.

The most recent Football Today podcast with Ross Tucker and Matt Williamson takes an in-depth, balanced look at the Seattle Seahawks' thinking in the 2011 NFL draft.

Tucker and Williamson offer points and counterpoints as to the Seahawks' decision to select Alabama tackle James Carpenter with the 25th overall choice. I'll provide a transcript covering this portion of the discussion, followed by some thoughts in conclusion.

The conversation began with Tucker noting that he had predicted Carpenter as a first-round selection based on what he was hearing from offensive line coaches.

Ross Tucker: "I talked to two teams that both really, really liked him and both said they would be surprised if he didn’t go late first round. ... A lot of people really like him. He is very physical. They think he can play four different positions. Both guards and both tackles. Played at Alabama. High level of competition. Played for Joe Pendry, who was, ironically enough, my offensive line coach my rookie year with the Washington Redskins. And evidently, Joe Pendry really talked him up to people.

"This may surprise you, but I’m not typically a big fan of drafting offensive linemen high. So, I don’t love the pick because I think you can get a guy in the third, fourth round that maybe you train him for a year or maybe even not and maybe he goes in there and plays well. Like what Marshal Yanda did with the Ravens when they took him in the third round. I think you can get good offensive linemen in the third and fourth round. And so I’m not enamored with what they did with Carpenter and I’m really not enamored with what they did getting John Moffitt in the third round. I think Moffitt is a tough guy. He looks like he is guy was willing to be physical. But I think they could get comparable players lower."

Matt Williamson: "I am a believer that you can get by with mediocre offensive line talent. They don’t have to be Orlando Pace in terms of physical abilities if you are tough and you are smart. You have to have those two attributes. A lot of those guys in turn can play multiple positions. But I can’t be real, real critical of this pick, either, because their line was so bad. They used a first-round pick on Russell Okung, who I love, at left tackle last year. Now they have a set of bookends.

"They had so many needs, they could have went in a lot of directions. A guy like Jimmy Smith would have been a really good pick. They need a lot of things in Seattle, but right tackle was certainly one of them. I don’t think it was a reach. Obviously, they are trying to get to be very, very physical. Their two offensive line selections suggest they want to run the football, they want to be a more physical football team than who they go up against. I can’t be real critical of it, although I think their draft in general was pretty blah."

Ross Tucker: "And that is the one thing I always say about the draft: Why do you think people were appalled by that pick? I’ll tell you why. Because none of them had ever seen any mock draft, James Carpenter going in the first round. If they had taken Gabe Carimi, I don’t think people would have been that appalled by it. They would go, 'OK, Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin, good player, first-round pick, I’m glad we got him.' Or if James Carpenter had been listed in a bunch of mock drafts as going at going 17 and 19. So much of what people think of your draft is based on their perceptions before the draft, which might be completely wrong."

This conversation captures the debate perfectly. Drafting two offensive linemen made great sense for the Seahawks based on their priorities and needs, but it's fair to ask whether they overvalued right tackle and guard, which qualify as non-premium positions.

The same questions apply to the San Francisco 49ers, who used 2010 first-round choices for a right tackle (Anthony Davis) and left guard (Mike Iupati), and also to the St. Louis Rams, who used the second overall choice of the 2009 draft for a right tackle (Jason Smith). The Arizona Cardinals' Levi Brown, chosen fifth overall in 2007, played right tackle until last season.

In the end, teams have no reason to regret selecting such players early if their offensive lines perform at a high level for an extended period.

» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

With Sam Bradford in place, the St. Louis Rams could sit back during the 2011 NFL draft and watch at least a dozen teams sweat over the available quarterbacks.

Counter to conventional wisdom, the rest of the division followed suit -- despite obvious, immediate and critical needs at the position.

The San Francisco 49ers were the only team in the division to target a potential starting quarterback, but they waited until the second round. Even then, Colin Kaepernick was only the sixth quarterback taken. The 49ers chose Missouri outside linebacker Aldon Smith seventh overall when Jake Locker (eighth to Tennessee), Blaine Gabbert (10th to Jacksonville), Christian Ponder (12th to Minnesota) and Andy Dalton (35th to Cincinnati) were available.

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks turned their backs on available quarterbacks round after round. The Cardinals took a running back in the second round, a pick no one saw coming. The Seahawks traded out of the second round entirely.

Hey, who needs a quarterback prospect when John Skelton and Charlie Whitehurst are under contract?

Of course, Skelton and Whitehurst might be better than the quarterbacks other teams drafted.

The Cardinals and Seahawks had too many needs to draft sketchy quarterbacks just because they needed players at the position. Everyone knows drafting quarterbacks is a risky proposition. Everyone also knows it's tough to develop a top quarterback without risking an early selection on one, at some point.

The Cardinals, Seahawks and 49ers will take their chances in free agency and/or through the trade market. San Francisco has a longer-term option in Kaepernick. The quarterbacks Arizona and Seattle passed up will have a fair amount to say about whether those teams come out looking good in the end.

BEST MOVE

The Cardinals didn't get cute when they were on the clock at No. 5 and LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson was staring at them.

Arizona needed a quarterback and could have taken any of the three passers who came off the board between the eighth and 12th picks. They could have gotten cute and tried to trade back, adding picks to help patch holes elsewhere in the roster.

But in selecting Peterson, the Cardinals landed the player some analysts ranked as the most talented in the draft. Peterson will start right away at cornerback. He should liven up the return game as well. He is the type of prospect teams should select early without reservation.

Arizona's division rivals didn't do much, if anything, to improve immediately at quarterback. They did not add dynamic receivers in the early rounds. The Cardinals should be in position to control opposing passing games to a greater degree. Peterson gives them the potential to field one of the better secondaries in the league, provided Adrian Wilson returns to health and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie bounces back from a down season.

Seattle's big receiver, Mike Williams, caught 22 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in two victories against Arizona last season. It's a big upset if a secondary featuring Peterson and Rodgers-Cromartie allows that kind of production in the near future.

RISKIEST MOVE

The 49ers passed over the available quarterbacks at No. 7 and selected pass-rush help instead.

Smith might become a good player, but if the available quarterbacks become significantly better than Kaepernick, the 49ers will be vulnerable to criticism.

The 49ers weren't blind to their need at quarterback. They traded up nine spots to select Kaepernick with the 36th overall selection. Second-round quarterbacks have a rough track record in recent seasons. Kaepernick faces a transition period as he adapts from a pistol scheme that doesn't resemble NFL offenses.

The selection of Kaepernick wasn't careless or ill-advised. Far from it. It's just that all quarterbacks carry heightened risk, and the 49ers passed over quarterbacks other teams saw as top-10 values.

The 49ers selected Kaepernick early enough to make him the heir apparent to whichever veteran they acquire, most likely. Kaepernick has the talent to reward the 49ers for the selection, particularly if coach Jim Harbaugh delivers on expectations that he can develop quarterbacks.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Cardinals ran away with this one when they used a second-round choice for Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said the Cardinals had Williams ranked 15th on their draft board. They drafted him with the 38th pick.

Taking a cornerback in the first round and a running back in the second meant the Cardinals would not use early choices to target primary needs at quarterback and outside linebacker. Selecting Peterson was easy, but taking a running back in the second round went against expectations.

Arizona already has a crowded backfield with Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower and LaRod Stephens-Howling. Wells has not yet met expectations. Hightower's contract status is in question pending a new labor agreement. Stephens-Howling has emerged as a player Whisenhunt likes to use more and more.

Where will Williams fit?

"I think basically when you talk about [Williams] versus a pass-rusher or other perceived needs, what are you basically talking about?" Whisenhunt said. "Are you talking about getting a very good football player that a lot of people had ranked very high, as opposed to a player that maybe is not as good of a football player? We're looking for players that can help make an impact. That’s what is important to us, and we feel like that’s what Ryan is."

FILE IT AWAY

The 49ers, Seahawks and Rams have all invested heavily in their offensive lines over the last few seasons.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, haven't used higher than a fifth-round pick for an offensive lineman over the last four drafts. Left guard Alan Faneca is nearing the end and could retire. Right guard Deuce Lutui is without a contract for 2011. Right tackle Brandon Keith is coming off a season-ending injury and still must prove himself as a long-term starter.

Arizona had the oldest offensive line in the NFL last season, including backups.

Meanwhile, the Rams have young bookend tackles in Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith. The 49ers have used first-round picks for left tackle Joe Staley, left guard Mike Iupati and right tackle Anthony Davis. The Seahawks have first-round tackles Russell Okung and James Carpenter, both acquired since Pete Carroll became head coach in 2010.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Draft philosophy.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals expect their draft choices to address immediate needs even if the players they choose do not start right away. They pay less lip service to the "best player available" mantra than some teams.

"There is a line you walk between both of them, where you draft the best available player for your need," coach Ken Whisenhunt explained before the 2010 draft. "You always consider where your depth is, where your greatest margin of improvement is going to come, and that is kind of what we look toward when we do that."

The Cardinals put together two draft boards. One rates players on overall NFL potential. The other lists the 120 players Arizona would consider drafting, taking into account the Cardinals' needs as well.

San Francisco 49ers

General manager Trent Baalke puts an old-school emphasis on measurables in the belief that bigger, stronger athletes hold up better over the course of a season. His former boss, Scot McCloughan, shared the same philosophy, which he traced back to Ron Wolf.

I expect that philosophy to continue. It fits well with new coach Jim Harbaugh's belief in establishing a power running game to facilitate play-action opportunities.

The first three players San Francisco selected in the 2010 draft -- tackle Anthony Davis, guard Mike Iupati and safety Taylor Mays -- fit the "size matters" philosophy.

St. Louis Rams

The Rams feel good enough about the foundation they've built to tolerate more risk than they were willing to accept when GM Billy Devaney and coach Steve Spagnuolo were in the early stages of remaking the roster.

We saw that last year when the Rams used a third-round choice for cornerback Jerome Murphy and a fourth-rounder for receiver Mardy Gilyard. Murphy had been suspended from his college team for violating team rules. Gilyard was more flamboyant than most recent Rams choices. Draft analysts raised potential character concerns in both cases.

This is not to suggest the Rams have abandoned their core values. They are simply far enough along in the building process to expand their options.

Side note: Over the past two seasons, the Rams have used both first-round choices on players from the Big 12 Conference and both second-rounders on players from the Big Ten.

Seattle Seahawks

Any struggling team with new leadership will be active in addressing weaknesses.

The Seahawks have taken it to another level under coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider. These guys are energetic, aggressive and unapologetic. They would rather wheel and deal than stand pat, an approach that led to multiple trades in their first draft together.

The lockout will prevent teams from trading veteran players, limiting the Seahawks' options this year.

The team is more unified philosophically this year because offensive line coach Tom Cable shares more conventional views on prospects at his position. Cable's predecessor, Alex Gibbs, was more particular in what he wanted, affecting the overall approach.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: history in that spot.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills' top pick is No. 3 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: DT Gerald McCoy (Buccaneers)

2009: DE Tyson Jackson (Chiefs)

2008: QB Matt Ryan (Falcons)

2007: T Joe Thomas (Browns)

2006: QB Vince Young (Titans)

2005: WR Braylon Edwards (Browns)

2004: WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals)

ANALYSIS: Some sexy picks have been made in this spot. None of the players have been out-and-out busts, although character concerns have overshadowed a couple. Only McCoy and Jackson haven't been selected for at least one Pro Bowl. Fitzgerald is an elite receiver, arguably the best in the business. Edwards can be a dangerous playmaker when not dropping passes, which he didn't do last year. Ryan is an emerging star. Young has been a lightning rod, but he did win rookie of the year and has gone to a pair of Pro Bowls. Thomas is a star blocker with four Pro Bowls on his résumé already.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins' top pick is No. 15 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants)

2009: LB Brian Cushing (Texans)

2008: G Branden Albert (Chiefs)

2007: LB Lawrence Timmons (Steelers)

2006: CB Tye Hill (Rams)

2005: LB Derrick Johnson (Chiefs)

2004: WR Michael Clayton (Buccaneers)

ANALYSIS: This is a region of the first round where picks can break either way. There have been solid players drafted here, but no superstars. Cushing was a rookie of the year, but his career has been tainted by performance-enhancing drug usage. Clayton made an immediate impact with 80 catches for 1,193 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie, but hasn't caught more than 38 passes since. Johnson has been a solid linebacker for Kansas City, while Timmons has been an influential member of Pittsburgh's defense the past two seasons. Hill has been the biggest disappointment. He has been with four teams, starting 25 games.

New England Patriots

The Patriots' first-round picks are Nos. 17 and 28 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in those spots, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: G Mike Iupati (49ers) and DE Jared Odrick (Dolphins)

2009: QB Josh Freeman (Buccaneers) and G Eric Wood (Bills)

2008: T Gosder Cherilus (Lions) and DE Lawrence Jackson (Seahawks)

2007: DE Jarvis Moss (Broncos) and T Joe Staley (49ers)

2006: LB Chad Greenway (Vikings) and TE Marcedes Lewis (Jaguars)

2005: LB David Pollack (Bengals) and DE Luis Castillo (Chargers)

2004: LB D.J. Williams (Broncos) and CB Chris Gamble (Panthers)

ANALYSIS: Results have been mixed with these slots, but the 28th pick actually has found more starters than the 17th in recent years. Freeman showed signs of developing into a future star last year, and Cherilus has started 40 of his 43 games at right tackle. Williams and Greenway have been regular starters. But Moss and Pollock didn't work out. In the 28th slot, Odrick is the only one who hasn't been a regular starter. Injuries detonated his rookie season.

New York Jets

The Jets' top pick is No. 30 overall. Here are the last seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL teams in parentheses:

2010: RB Jahvid Best (Lions)

2009: WR Kenny Britt (Titans)

2008: TE Dustin Keller (Jets)

2007: WR Craig Davis (Chargers)

2006: RB Joseph Addai (Colts)

2005: TE Heath Miller (Steelers)

2004: RB Kevin Jones (Lions)

ANALYSIS: What strikes me is that all seven selections not only are offensive players, but also ball handlers. Perhaps teams in the back of the draft feel they can gamble a little bit and try to hit big on a skill position. Whatever the reasoning, it seems to have worked. This has been a successful spot. Jones and Addai rushed for 1,000 yards as rookies. Best appears to be the Lions' running back of the future. Miller and Addai have gone to Pro Bowls. Britt was the Titans' leading receiver last year. Keller is one of the NFL's better tight ends.

New San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has repeatedly offered praise for quarterback Alex Smith.

The two have met several times, leaving the rest of us to focus on whether bringing back Smith could make sense for the 49ers heading into an uncertain offseason. We've spent less energy discussing whether returning to the 49ers would make sense for Smith.

Getting a fresh start in a new place could help Smith shake the expectations that arguably dragged him down as the first player chosen in the 2005 NFL draft. But the grass is not always greener someplace else and there's a decent chance San Francisco could stand as Smith's best option, as I noted in response to a New Zealand-based 49ers fan, Mike, during a recent Facebook exchange.

Smith might be unlikely to find another situation featuring:

• A sharp offensive-minded head coach. Smith's previous head coaches, Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary, had defensive backgrounds. Both had their strengths, but neither handled quarterback situations very well. Smith questioned Nolan's motives and raised concerns about Singletary's demeanor during games. Harbaugh understands NFL quarterbacks. He was one, after all.
• Players Smith knows and likes. Vernon Davis and others have consistently backed Smith. Smith has friends on the team.
• Enough talent on the roster to be competitive. The 49ers are starting over from a coaching standpoint, but they have more talent than the typical rebuilding team. They opened the 2010 season with the youngest starting offense in the league, a unit featuring multiple recent first-round draft choices (Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and Smith).
• A division as unsettled as the NFC West. The 49ers were 6-10 last season and still finished only one game out of first place.
• An unsettled quarterback situation. If Smith signed right now, he would be the best quarterback on the roster and the favorite to start. There's no guarantee the 49ers will land a player clearly more talented before the regular season.

Smith will have to consider options elsewhere, of course, and the 49ers will look to upgrade. But these specific criteria could, in the end, trump the overriding notion that a fresh start would be best no matter what.