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Are the Chicago Bears really set at offensive line?

After two consecutive seasons of patchwork along their offensive line, the Bears have declined to address their personnel in a meaningful way this offseason. They have signed one veteran free agent, little-known guard Chilo Rachal, and did not select a lineman among their six picks in last week's NFL draft.

That suggests the Bears truly do plan to begin training camp with some combination of the players they used last season, a group that will be bolstered by the return of 2011 first-round pick Gabe Carimi. Coach Lovie Smith consistently expressed confidence in the group and after the draft said: Believe me, we want to do everything we can to open up holes for our running backs and of course to protect Jay Cutler and we feel like we'll be able to do that."

No team allowed more sacks per dropback than the Bears over the past two seasons. (One for every 10.5 dropbacks.) The Bears believe their scheme under Mike Martz over that span was more to blame than the skill level of their talent. The success of the Bears' 2012 season might well ride on whether the Bears accurately attributed those problems.

On the surface, Joe Vitt’s tenure as an interim head coach in St. Louis doesn’t look very pretty.

But dig beneath the surface a little bit and you’ll find a different story. I spoke with several people who observed Vitt’s time as the Rams’ head coach in 2005, and they said he did a nice job of weathering the storm.

Vitt will be taking over as the interim head coach of the New Orleans Saints on Monday when Sean Payton begins his season-long suspension. Vitt, who has been Payton’s assistant head coach since 2006, will run the team through the offseason program, training camp and the regular season. But Vitt will have to step away at the start of the regular season and serve a six-game suspension for his role in the Saints’ bounty program. After that, Vitt will return as head coach.

General manager Mickey Loomis will serve an eight-game suspension to start the season. The Saints also could have players suspended.

There are turbulent times ahead for the Saints, but Vitt has experience in handling situations like this.

Back in 2005, he was the assistant head coach and linebackers coach in St. Louis. The Rams already were ending “The Greatest Show on Turf’’ era. With Mike Martz as the head coach, the Rams got off to a 2-3 start and there was a well-publicized feud brewing between Martz and the front office. Martz came down with a bacterial infection in his heart after five games, and Vitt was elevated to interim head coach.

By that point, injuries already were piling up. With quarterback Marc Bulger injured, the Rams had to go through a lot of that season with Jamie Martin and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Wide receiver Isaac Bruce was dealing with injuries and near the end of his career, and nothing was easy. The Rams went 4-7 under Vitt, but several people that were associated with the team or observed the Rams closely in those days said Vitt made the most out of a difficult situation.

They said Vitt kept his players playing hard. He’s known as a motivator in New Orleans, and it was the same way in St. Louis. Vitt used to show the Rams a movie the night before a game, and it always was tied to a motivational message. One movie was “Gladiator,’’ which emphasized the importance of sticking together. Under Vitt, the Rams started off 3-3, highlighted by Fitzpatrick coming off the bench to rally them to a 33-27 victory against Houston.

After that, the Rams endured a four-game losing streak, but most of those games were close. The last two were a one-point loss to Philadelphia and a four-point loss to San Francisco. Vitt wrapped up his tenure with a season-ending victory against Dallas, a team that included Payton on its staff. After that, Payton got hired by the Saints, and one of the first moves he made was hiring Vitt.

On Monday, Payton will hand over his team to Vitt. It’s not an ideal situation by any means. But Vitt has made the most out of a tough situation before, and the Saints are counting on him to do it again.

NFL executives and coaches descended on their annual meetings last week, just three months removed from the most prolific passing season in NFL history. Quarterback play has never had a more direct link to team success, and Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith could stride confidently through the halls of the Breakers Hotel knowing he has a high performer who should be entering the prime of his career.

Which brings up an interesting dichotomy. Smith, of course, is the coach who for years described his team as one that "gets off the bus running." He appeared to change course in 2010 by hiring pass-happy offensive coordinator Mike Martz, but for two years he and Martz played tug-of-war over the Bears' schematic focus. Martz is now retired, replaced by former offensive line coach Mike Tice -- who once famously referred to Chicago as a "tough guy town" that required a power running game to succeed -- and the Bears appear headed for another offensive re-set.

So here's the question: How much will the Bears pull back on their passing attack to satisfy Smith's philosophical requirements in the running game? The Bears' offseason moves to this point don't give us a clear idea, so the owners meetings seemed like a good time to ask Smith directly.

Yes, the Bears acquired Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall, giving quarterback Jay Cutler the first true downfield threat of his Bears tenure. But they also guaranteed $7 million to their new backup tailback. New general manager Phil Emery would not have allocated the resources it took to sign Michael Bush if he weren't confident that Smith needed two high-quality running backs (along with starter Matt Forte) for his offense.

He didn't say it in so many words last week, but it seems clear that Smith wants to open the 2012 season with the compromise he eventually worked out with Martz in each of the past two seasons. In 2011, in fact, it led to almost a 50-50 pass-run ratio that corresponded with a five-game winning streak.

"During the course of the season," Smith said, "our offense had a different look from time to time. When we leaned on the run, we could move the ball as well as anyone. … As far as how much different it will look, I think we'll just see consistently what we want to be, a little more than occasionally. More that as much as anything."

You might remember that the Bears threw on a higher percentage of their plays last September than any team in the NFL. Smith and Tice eventually persuaded Martz to balance his play-calling, and as the chart shows, the Bears didn't throw more than 32 passes in any game during that winning streak. But they also didn't tilt too far toward the run, with the exception of a windy Week 10 blowout of the Detroit Lions.

If I had to guess what the Bears will try to accomplish this season, that five-game window is the snapshot. If anything, Smith wants to maintain the course correction that Martz accepted only in fits and starts over the past two years. Tice has a professed love for the power running game, and Smith said simply: "Our philosophies mesh."

Smith added: "[Martz] and I had a long background together. So I knew what I was getting at the time. So, when I say 'philosophies mesh,' I'm talking about the direction I want to go now as we go forward. I knew what we were getting into. I wanted Mike, and I knew exactly what he would bring to the table. No more than that. Going forward, I felt like that was the direction we wanted to go with personnel and our running back position, and what I felt we needed to do to get back to where we belong. So, no more than that."

That's about as close as you're going to get to hearing Smith say he plans to do something differently. I don't mind saying I was in favor of Smith's initial decision to hire Martz, mostly because the Bears weren't in a position to make a gradual shift to an untested offensive coordinator or scheme. I just thought Smith would achieve better and more consistent oversight than he did.

That shouldn't be a problem with Tice, who is as strong-willed as Martz but more likely to push in Smith's direction.

The Bears are competing in a division that features two of the most explosive passing offenses in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. I'm not sure whether the Bears will be able to compete throw for throw with either team, but I'm positive they don't want to. What the Bears hope to achieve is the NFC North's most balanced offense. They are well on their way.

Jay Cutler’s former backup is going to Cutler’s former team.

ESPNChicago.com is reporting that the Denver Broncos have signed former Chicago quarterback Caleb Hanie — who played collegiately at Colorado State — to a two-year deal.

Hanie, 26, played well in relief of Cutler in the NFC title game in the 2010 season. However, he was dreadful as Cutler’s injury replacement in 2011, going 0-4 as a starter. The Broncos like the mobile, athletic Hanie because they think he is a better fit for their offense than he was for Mike Martz’s in Chicago.

I thought the Broncos would try to sign a more experienced veteran like recent San Diego cut Billy Volek. The Broncos talked to Volek, but were more interested in Hanie.

Hanie will be the man in Denver if Peyton Manning – who missed the entire 2011 season with a neck injury – can’t play. The Broncos are convinced Manning will be fine.

Let’s face it: The Broncos will be dire straits if Manning, 36, misses a huge chunk of time, regardless of who is the backup. In Hanie, Denver gets a player it thinks can adjust to its system. Watch for Denver to perhaps add a quarterback in some point in the draft.

Let's take a moment to review.

As the Chicago Bears' offense collapsed last season, then-injured quarterback Jay Cutler made a nuanced plea for schematic continuity without directly endorsing the return of offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

A month later, the Bears replaced Martz and promoted offensive line coach Mike Tice into the role.

A few weeks after that, the Bears hired a quarterbacks coach whom Cutler once endorsed for Martz's job and is obviously a personal favorite. Jeremy Bates was one of the Denver Broncos' offensive assistants during Cutler's time there.

On Feb. 20, Cutler spoke openly during an ESPN 1000 interview about his desire for a big receiver and specifically acknowledged his continuing friendship with Brandon Marshall, who at the time was a member of the Miami Dolphins. Tuesday, less than an hour after the NFL's free agent and trading period opened, the Bears acquired Marshall for a pair of third-round picks.

What Jay wants, Jay gets.

Maybe he should have asked for Jake Long, Reggie Bush and a private plane as well.

In all seriousness, I know some of you will think that new general manager Phil Emery and coach Lovie Smith have gone out of their way to placate, suck up to and otherwise make their quarterback happy. But I wouldn't look at it quite that way.

What the Bears have done is take most every step available to maximize the huge investment they made in Cutler in their historic 2009 trade for him.

It's fair to expect an elite quarterback to raise the production of those around him, but the Bears hadn't given Cutler much to work with since his arrival. They traded away his best receiver, tight end Greg Olsen, and hoped he could make it work with former college teammate Earl Bennett, a kick returner trying to play receiver in Devin Hester and a raw speedster in Johnny Knox. Last year's signing of veteran Roy Williams proved a laughably inadequate response to their positional weakness.

It's also fair to expect a quarterback to find common ground with his coordinator, but Cutler has now bid farewell to two of them in his three-year Bears career. The hope now is that Cutler can resume his lockstep relationship with Bates, and get enough flexibility from Tice, to eliminate the red tape and bureaucracy that has stifled the team's offense at times in recent years.

There is no such thing as a perfect environment in the NFL, and it's worth noting that pass protection has probably been the single biggest issue the Bears offense has faced since Cutler arrived. Regardless, the Bears have surgically repaired much of the ruins around him.

Cutler has been reunited with his favorite coach and top receiver, and frankly it's on him to make it work. The Bears have reinforced their commitment to their franchise quarterback. The rest is up to him.

Here's one way to think about Tuesday's news from the Chicago Bears: It all goes back to Greg Olsen.

Bear with me for a moment.

(Sorry.)

General manager Jerry Angelo was fired because he ran a front office that was willing to trade Olsen because the Bears' current scheme placed low priority on tight ends. And offensive coordinator Mike Martz was sent away because he ran a scheme that, among other things, couldn't adequately incorporate a player of Olsen's unique skills.

Obviously, last summer's trade of Olsen is one of many flash points that led to what happened Tuesday. But now more than ever, I find his late-July departure from Chicago to be a tight illustration of what should never, ever, ever, never, ever happen in an NFL franchise.

Olsen was the Bears' first-round draft choice in 2007. He had the size of a tight end, but was faster than most, and had receiver-like ball skills that are heavily valued by most NFL teams. His career peaked in 2009, when he caught 60 passes for 612 yards and eight touchdowns, but his impact was limited in a Martz offense that mostly asked tight ends to block and excluded them from the kind of matchups Olsen had already shown he could beat.

His production dropped to 41 receptions in 2010, and with Martz set to return, Angelo couldn't justify extending Olsen's contract when he was destined to be a supplemental contributor. So Angelo traded Olsen to the Carolina Panthers, who promptly signed him to a four-year contract extension worth about $23 million and watched as he caught 45 passes for 540 yards and five touchdowns.

The Bears, meanwhile, had only one player catch more than 37 passes, and that was running back Matt Forte (52 receptions).

Martz committed the first cardinal sin in this episode by not building his scheme around the skills of his players. And Angelo committed the second, not only by presiding over that mistake but compounding it by taking his eye off the horizon.

Martz had turned down a contract extension entering the season, starting the clock on his eventual departure. As the general manager, Angelo needed to hedge on Martz's future and protect an asset that would be of value beyond the potential end of Martz's tenure. Every other coordinator in the NFL, including whoever takes the Bears' job, has a scheme that would use Olsen more than Martz did.

Coach Lovie Smith apparently believes that Kellen Davis could be a similar player, but after catching 28 passes in four seasons, Davis represents hope rather than serious projection. In the end, the Bears traded away one of their best players because he didn't fit a scheme that they summarily dumped five months later. That should never happen.

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 20
Preseason Power Ranking: 13

Biggest surprise: The Bears installed little-known Henry Melton into the critical "three-technique" position on their defensive line, hoping that the converted running back/defensive end could play the role of interior playmaker last filled by Tommie Harris about five years ago. Melton had his ups and downs, but he finished with seven sacks in 15 games. The only defensive tackle in the NFL with more sacks was Tommy Kelly of the Oakland Raiders, who had 7.5. Melton will have to even out his game to be a long-term starter, but no team is going to turn down seven sacks from an interior defensive lineman.

Biggest disappointment: Backup quarterback Caleb Hanie spent nearly four years in the organization before the Bears called on him for extensive service. No matter the situation, that's a reasonable timeframe for a quarterback to develop into a useful asset. When Hanie took over a 7-3 team, it was fair to think he could navigate the Bears toward the playoffs. Instead, he was benched after four consecutive losses, punctuated by nine interceptions and 19 sacks, and helped scuttle the Bears' postseason hopes. You can't blame Hanie for everything that went wrong during that stretch, but the quarterback is the most important player on the field and Hanie obviously didn't do enough to win a game. The Bears deserve some blame for failing to develop him, but in the end the responsibility lies with the player.

Biggest need: Amazingly, it's a toss-up between two positions that annually draw offseason discussion around this team: receiver and safety. Quarterback Jay Cutler has obvious chemistry with receiver Earl Bennett, but it's also clear that Devin Hester is best left primarily as a returner and that veteran Roy Williams is on his last legs. The Bears traded away tight end Greg Olsen because he didn't fit into now ex-coordinator Mike Martz's system, and they enter this offseason with a far-too-limited number of reliable pass-catchers. Meanwhile, there is reason to believe that 2011 third-round pick Chris Conte merits a look as a starting safety in 2012, but 2010 third-rounder Major Wright hasn't shown much progress and the Bears desperately need a playmaker in the back end.

Team MVP: Part of me wants to say that tailback Matt Forte deserves the award. Amid a public negotiation about his expiring contract, Forte was leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage when he suffered a season-ending sprained knee in Week 13. But the Bears' collapse after Cutler's injury, especially before Forte was sidelined, demonstrated how valuable he really is. The Bears averaged 32 points per game during a five-game winning streak prior to his injury. In a 1-5 finish, they averaged 14.2 points per game. Sometimes, as they say, you don't know what you've got until it's gone.

Whither Hester? In Week 10, Hester returned a punt 82 yards against the Detroit Lions for his 18th career touchdown return. That left him one behind Deion Sanders' NFL record. But illness and a sprained ankle dramatically limited Hester's impact thereafter. He caught only four passes in the Bears' final seven games, and over that stretch he managed three returns for more than 30 yards. Hester is the type of player who could have helped overcome the ineffective offense Cutler left behind. His disappearance is a little-mentioned, but highly important, factor in their 8-8 final record.

Tuesday afternoon brought us what most of us figured was the only possible news the Chicago Bears would bring us this week: Offensive coordinator Mike Martz will not return in 2012.

Quarterbacks coach Shane Day, a Martz protégé, will also leave the organization. Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com has the details.

Martz's status has seemed shaky for most of his two-year tenure in Chicago. Both seasons required substantive midseason shifts in play calling and personnel usage, giving the Bears a balanced identity that didn't look much like Martz's storied scheme. Whether Martz willingly made those changes or had them foisted on him is an issue that was never resolved and is now moot.

I've argued the value of continuity on several occasions, noting that quarterback Jay Cutler will soon be playing for his fourth different offensive coordinator in the past five years. The Bears have an opportunity to minimize the change if they promote offensive line coach Mike Tice, as we've discussed, and it appears that Tice will receive strong consideration for the job.

Tice shares the same offensive roots as Martz but values the power running game and has a two-year head start with the Bears' personnel over anyone they might hire. He has never been an offensive coordinator, nor has he been a primary playcaller, and his promotion would rob the Bears of his drill-by-drill expertise on the offensive line. But there are no perfect candidates and Tice might well be the Bears' best option.

Stay tuned. Who knows what's next.

Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith turned down two opportunities this week to support offensive coordinator Mike Martz, once in a teleconference with Minnesota reporters and a second time when queried by Chicago-area media. Smith, in fact, angrily questioned why the topic was germane before the season ends.

Smith's rare loss of public composure suggests Martz's status is a sensitive subject, both for him and within the Bears organization. I suppose it's possible that Smith hasn't begun the process of evaluating Martz, whose contract expires after the season. But generally speaking, it's not a good sign for an assistant coach when his boss won't say anything comforting about his future.

So as the Bears presumably mull a future without Martz, they'll have to weigh his performance versus the value of continuity. They'll need to decide which is more important, and if there is a way to maintain what they did well this season even while hiring a new coordinator.

As rumors of Martz's demise swirled this season, I wrote several times about the collateral damage of regularly swapping offensive coordinators. The value of continuity within a scheme is reflected annually in the NFL's best teams. As the chart shows, eight of the nine teams who have qualified for the 2011 playoffs have employed the same offensive coordinator and/or used the same scheme for at least the past three seasons.

Martz has certainly displayed some pocks since the Bears hired him in 2010, most notably by opening each season with a skewed pass-run ratio that needed substantial adjustment by midseason. Would Martz's well-known stubbornness outweigh the detriment of starting over? Remember, the Bears' offense was humming in November before quarterback Jay Cutler suffered a season-ending thumb injury. In a subsequent interview, Cutler made clear he doesn't want to start over.

"If you look at the offenses around the league that are really good -- Green Bay, the Patriots, the Saints -- there is consistency there," Cutler said. "They've been in the same system. They've had the same offensive coordinator. They've had the same receivers, tight ends, guys around them that have grown up in the system.

"If you want to be an elite offense in this league, that's what you have to do. You can't keep shipping guys in and out. You can't keep doing different offensive coordinators left and right. It's hard on quarterbacks and it's hard on everyone to learn that kind of stuff."

Cutler offered the quintessential argument for maintaining continuity, and the Bears have had enough success under Martz to make it a reasonable possibility. But if Smith and general manager Jerry Angelo decide to hire a new offensive coordinator, is it possible to maintain most of their scheme?

The answer is maybe, with several caveats and an acknowledgement that I don't know how interested the candidate would be. But if the Bears elevate offensive line coach Mike Tice, they'll have a chance to build off their midseason success in 2011 and minimize the teardown that usually occurs in coordinator transitions.

Tice and Martz have much different personalities and personal histories, but their football backgrounds aren't as dissimilar as you might think. They both have roots in the Don Coryell "three-digit" offense, a scheme Tice learned while playing for ex-Washington Redskins coach Joe Gibbs. Similar to Martz, Tice likes to throw downfield and isn't interested in the shorter passing routes featured in West Coast offenses. With Tice as their offensive coordinator, the Bears could build off the terminology and scheme they have installed over the past two years.

And if his time as the Minnesota Vikings' head coach is any indication, Tice also values some of the adjustments the Bears have made in the past two seasons: Balance with the running game and more liberal use of tight ends to block and provide important outlet receivers against pressure.

Over four seasons with the Vikings, Tice's teams produced 8,140 rushing yards, an average of 2,035 per season. And in half of those years, Tice's leading receiver was tight end Jermaine Wiggins, who caught a combined 140 passes in 2004 and 2005.

Based on Cutler's public request for more balance, quicker drops and better protection, my guess is that he would be on the same philosophical page as Tice. And after being on the same team for the past two years, they should have at least some level of personal acquaintance and be ahead of where a coordinator from outside the building would start.

And now, the caveats. Tice was a quarterback at the University of Maryland, a tight end for 14 seasons in the NFL and has been a long-time offensive line coach. But despite that pedigree, he has never been an offensive coordinator and has never been the primary playcaller of a team. That's not to say he couldn't do it. It's just that after 15 years as an NFL coach, he hasn't done it yet. (We should note that the same was true for current Bears defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli when he was installed in 2010.)

Second, Tice has restored his reputation over the past two years as an exceptional offensive line coach. Elevating him to offensive coordinator almost certainly would rob the Bears of that drill-by-drill expertise. It's difficult, if not impossible, to do both jobs. They would have to hire a new offensive line coach to replace him.

The Tennessee Titans were prepared to offer Tice their offensive coordinator job last offseason. The Bears denied the Titans' request for an interview, giving Tice a new contract instead. For that reason alone, I would imagine the Bears would at least discuss Tice as a possibility if they let Martz go. It wouldn't be a slam-dunk hire, but it would fall well short of starting over. That alone would make Tice worth careful consideration.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Certainty in the short term, Chicago Bears: Their season derailed by injuries to quarterback Jay Cutler and tailback Matt Forte, you wonder if the Bears are approaching the end of days for their nucleus of the past eight years or so. Already, they have bid farewell to center Olin Kreutz, tight end Desmond Clark, tight end Greg Olsen and defensive tackle Tommie Harris. Linebacker Lance Briggs asked for a trade last summer. Will the Bears oblige him this winter? Will they start over on offense (again) by replacing offensive coordinator Mike Martz? And is there any chance that general manager Jerry Angelo, 62, will retire this winter, as rumored? Those questions are at least fair game at this point.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: Sunday's turnover-riddled performance was one of the worst for an NFL quarterback in the last four seasons, according to the Total Quarterback Rating system. Above all else, Ponder carried with him into the draft a reputation for smart play and solid decision-making. There are typically a combination of factors that go into a stretch of turnovers, and that includes a lack of playmakers surrounding the quarterback. But there is no defending some of the mistakes Ponder has made. He was dealing with a hip pointer last week, but for his sake I hope he is able to play Sunday against the New Orleans Saints. The Vikings need to see him bounce back from the inevitable adversity rookie quarterbacks face.

3. Left tackle confidence, Green Bay Packers: The decision to rotate Marshall Newhouse and rookie Derek Sherrod makes me nervous. Perhaps it was too much to expect Newhouse, the final pick of the fifth round in the 2010 draft, to be able to hold down the position indefinitely while starter Chad Clifton recovered from a hamstring injury. Newhouse doesn't fit the pedigree of an NFL left tackle. He's 6-foot-4, and fair or not, starting-quality left tackles aren't usually available late in the fifth round. Sherrod, on the other hand, is of classic left tackle size and was the Packers' first-round pick in 2011. If anyone projects as Clifton's long-term replacement, it's Sherrod. But I hate seeing a playoff team's left tackle position unsettled in Week 15. That's asking for trouble.

RISING

1. Cliff Avril, Detroit Lions defensive end: I wonder how many people outside the NFC North realize that Avril -- and not Kyle Vanden Bosch or Ndamukong Suh -- leads the Lions in sacks. Avril added two more to his season total Sunday against the Vikings and how has a career-high nine through 13 games. Avril has also forced six fumbles, a figure that is tied with Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs for the NFL lead. As we discussed Monday, Avril has made himself some money this season. The only question is whether the Lions will be the ones writing the check next year.

2. Moment of truth for Packers receiver Jordy Nelson: The caveat has followed Nelson this season, even as he has caught 51 passes for average of 18.8 yards and scored a team-high 10 touchdowns. He has been beating favorable coverage, the theory goes, after opponents prioritize receiver Greg Jennings and tight end Jermichael Finley. That might have been the case for some of Nelson's big plays this season, but now we'll get an opportunity to see what Nelson can do against what figures to be more attention from opponents as Jennings recovers from a sprained knee. The guess here is that Nelson won't miss a beat.

3. Arrow, Detroit Lions: They have absorbed more than their share of national criticism this year, but the Lions are also deserving of some significant big-picture praise. Sunday's victory over the Minnesota Vikings, as nail-biting as it was, ensured the franchise its first non-losing season in a decade. Their next victory would be their first winning season since they finished 9-7 in 2000. In all reality, 9-7 represents the high point of what most national observers thought possible for this team. For as hard of a time as I've given coach Jim Schwartz this season, he would deserve a special award -- Coach of the Past Three Years -- for turning out a winning record so quickly after the 0-16 disaster of 2008

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Our "Watch" series: At various times this season, Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen was on pace to break the NFL record for sacks in a season. Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson was on track to contest the single-season record for touchdown receptions and Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte was in contention to set a new record for all-purpose yards. All three have fallen off those record paces, unfortunately. Allen has one sack in his past three games, Johnson has one touchdown catch in his last four games and Forte has produced 246 all-purpose yards over his last four games and is now sidelined by a sprained knee. All three players have had great seasons, of course, and their record pace was fun while it lasted.

2. Roy Williams, Chicago Bears receiver: Williams hasn't inspired much confidence with his underwhelming showing this season, and I can't imagine a quarterback on the Bears' roster feeling good about throwing in his direction after he turned what should have been a touchdown into a game-changing interception Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Quarterback Caleb Hanie delivered a perfectly placed ball into Williams' chest at the goal line late in the fourth quarter. But Williams bobbled it, knocked it into the air and ultimately couldn't prevent Chiefs safety Jon McGraw from making the interception. The score would have tied the game at 10. Ultimately, the Bears lost 10-3.

3. Direction in Detroit: This week might be the most critical in the tenure of Lions coach Jim Schwartz. The NFL made his job as team disciplinarian easy last week by handing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh a two-game suspension. The league isn't likely to step in on the cases of receiver Titus Young, tight end Brandon Pettigrew and kick returner Stefan Logan, all of whom received costly personal fouls Sunday night in the Lions' 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints. I'm sure some people don't enjoy watching that kind of football, but the real issue Schwartz has is that the penalties have impacted his team's competitiveness. Schwartz is facing the prospect of benching three prominent players during a playoff run. His response to this crisis will go a long way toward determining whether the Lions make the playoffs.

RISING

1. Debate in Minnesota over quarterback Christian Ponder: On the one hand, Ponder threw for a career-high 381 yards and had the first three-touchdown game of his career Sunday against the Denver Broncos. On the other hand, he committed three costly turnovers in a 35-32 loss. He now has nine turnovers in six starts this season. Are we seeing the typical hot-and-cold performance of a rookie quarterback, especially one that had no offseason work due to the NFL lockout? Or is that excuse making? Reasonable people could occupy both sides of that argument.

2. Intrigue surrounding Mike Martz, Chicago Bears offensive coordinator: In recent weeks, we've seen reports that Martz has interest in several college football openings, including Arizona State and UCLA. Sunday, ESPN reported that Martz appears unlikely to return to the Bears when his contract expires after the season. Monday, Bears coach Lovie Smith said those reports have been "made up" because, as the man who hires and fires assistant coaches, he could be the only credible source on the topic. Some of what we have seen lines up with classic contract leveraging: creating the perception of a market for a soon-to-be free agent. Some of it could reflect the hope of others in the Bears organization. I'm not sure. But I'll repeat my earlier sentiment: Martz is far from perfect, but starting over with a new coordinator and/or scheme would be a destructive setback for quarterback Jay Cutler and render moot two years of roster maneuvering to fit Martz's player requirements.

3. Cash accounts, Green Bay Packers: The Packers launched the fifth stock offering in franchise history Tuesday morning, putting up 250,000 shares at $250 apiece to help pay for a looming $143 million expansion and renovation project for Lambeau Field. It's a little early for a progress report, but I know I had a hard time even accessing the dedicated website (www.packersowner.com) to see what all the fuss was about. Most every NFL team solicits public money for stadium projects, but in this case, only the people interested in contributing have to participate. Taxpayers with no interest in football have no obligations.

Suzy and Mort discuss the Vikings' release of Donovan McNabb; Herm Edwards debates his choice for Rookie of the Year, and in Did You See That?, LeBron James and Kevin Durant take their talents to the flag football field.

I listened to Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler speak Wednesday in a news conference and also in an appearance on ESPN 1000. For all of you pop culture nuts, Cutler confirmed he is once again engaged to Kristin Cavallari and had a humorous exchange of wedding ideas on "The Waddle & Silvy Show."

But to me, the takeaway from both appearances was Cutler working hard to temper expectations that he will play again this season. The Bears have expressed a level of optimism that Cutler either doesn't share or isn't willing to confirm so as to avoid unrealistic expectations.

A week after undergoing surgery that placed three screws and two pins in his fractured right thumb, Cutler acknowledged the possibility that he won't play again until the 2012 season.

"I've got to be smart about it obviously," he said. "I would want to play next week if they would let me. But I don't think that's going to be in the cards. It could be that I'm done for the season. I just have to be smart about it and realize there is a long-term picture here, but at the same time I want to be out there and I know that my teammates want me to be out there."

There are five weeks remaining in the regular season, and Cutler said he was given a post-surgery timeframe of three to 10 weeks to remove the pins. (The screws will remain in his thumb.) Cutler could conceivably play before the pins are removed, and he said he chose a surgeon who expressed confidence he could return quickly. But Cutler clearly doesn't want to raise expectations about his status.

"I don't want to say it," Cutler said on ESPN 1000. "I don't want to jinx it. I don't to get people excited. … I feel good about it, but you never know what's going to happen."

If he is indeed done for the year, the next big step in Cutler's career will be finding out whether he will have to learn a new offense next year or if the Bears will bring back offensive coordinator Mike Martz, whose contract is expiring. Speaking on ESPN 1000, Cutler echoed some of the thoughts we discussed last month on this topic. He didn't offer a glowing personal reflection of his time with Martz but made clear he prefers him over starting over.

"I don't want to learn a new offensive system, I know that," Cutler said. "I think we have a good thing going here. ...

"We're building something here," he added. "If you look at the offenses around the league that are really good -- Green Bay, the Patriots, the Saints -- there is consistency there. They've been in the same system. They've had the same offensive coordinator. They've had the same receivers, tight ends, guys around them that have grown up in the system.

"If you want to be an elite offense in this league, that's what you have to do. You can't keep shipping guys in and out. You can't keep doing different offensive coordinators left and right. It's hard on quarterbacks and it's hard on everyone to learn that kind of stuff."

I totally agree. Cutler was playing arguably the best football of his career when he was injured earlier this month. Martz had made his share of questionable decisions over the past two years, but what he has achieved with Cutler is undeniable and shouldn't be sacrificed if at all possible -- no matter when Cutler gets back on the field.

Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith has confirmed that quarterback Jay Cutler has a broken right thumb. As ESPN's Adam Schefter and Merril Hoge discuss in the video below, the chances of the Bears acquiring a short-term starter at this point are remote. That leaves backup Caleb Hanie at the helm of a 7-3 team that appeared to have a direct path to the playoffs before Cutler's injury.

Who is Caleb Hanie? Bears fans know him as an athletic scrambler with a live arm who has produced some exciting preseason moments. Players and coaches consider him a friendly youngster who understands his place in a veteran locker room, one who earned respect for the way he has handled the notorious scrutiny of offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

For the rest of you, let's take a quick look at the player whom the Bears hope can maintain their approach to the playoffs:

Age: 26

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 222 pounds

How acquired: Signed with the Bears in 2008 as an undrafted rookie from Colorado State, where he started 28 games over four seasons and set the school record for completion percentage (64.2) as a senior.

Experience: Has appeared in six games over the past three years. He has thrown 14 regular-season passes, and he tossed another 20 in a relief appearance during last season's 2010 NFC Championship Game.

Playing style: The best way to describe Hanie's game is "wide open." He is quick to leave the pocket and fast enough to make plays when he does it. In parts of 13 career preseason games, Hanie has scrambled 17 times for 92 yards and a touchdown. That style has left him open to turnovers, however. He has committed eight turnovers in those preseason games, including six interceptions.

Turning point: Martz demoted him to third string in 2010, advocating for washed-up veteran Todd Collins to be signed in his place, and appeared unconvinced on Hanie's candidacy to be the No. 2 quarterback late in the 2011 preseason. Ultimately, Hanie won the job with a sparkling performance in the Bears' final preseason game, completing seven of 10 passes without a turnover and finishing with a 128.3 passer rating.

Future look: In a sign of how they viewed Hanie just a few months ago, the Bears extended a low tender when restricted free agency began in July. A team could have signed him to an offer sheet without giving the Bears compensation. After the lockout, no team was willing to do so. So Hanie is making $1.2 million this season and will be an unrestricted free agent this winter. While he wouldn't have wished Cutler any harm, he has received a well-timed opportunity to make a case for himself on the free agent market.

Whoa. I was all set to spend the evening writing about the wild six-week playoff sprint we seemed set for here in the NFC North when the game-changer arrived: Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler broke the thumb on his throwing hand Sunday. Cutler finished the Bears' 31-20 victory over the San Diego Chargers but he appears likely to miss the rest of the regular season.

Let's not bother playing doctor and asking why Cutler's season could be in jeopardy because of a broken thumb, while Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has played two games with a fractured right index finger. They are different injuries entirely. Cutler apparently needs surgery to fix his injury.

What's important is that the Bears are facing a quarterback change during the most crucial and competitive portion of their season. They will have to navigate the transition well to backup Caleb Hanie to keep pace with the rest of the NFC's playoff contenders. Otherwise, the advantage goes to the Lions, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, all of whom are in the NFC playoff picture.

Cutler hasn't necessarily played at a Pro Bowl level this season, but he has mostly avoided mistakes and, most importantly, has been a consistent starter during the Bears' five-game winning streak. Over that stretch, he has thrown seven touchdown passes with three interceptions and taken a modest five sacks. The Bears have something good going, obviously, and it's hard to imagine that rhythm moving uninterrupted to a new quarterback.

Hanie has yet to start a game in his four NFL seasons and, while well-regarded throughout the league, hasn't always appeared to have the full confidence of offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Bears signed veteran Todd Collins to sit ahead of Hanie on the depth chart in 2010, and Martz finally signed off on Hanie as the backup this summer after a few preseason bumps.

Hanie left most everyone with a good impression after his second-half performance in the 2010 NFC Championship Game, in which he completed 13 of 20 passes for 153 yards and kept the Bears competitive against the Packers. But there is a big difference between the adrenaline of spot relief and taking over a team during the playoff stretch, and to be fair to everyone, Hanie has never gotten the opportunity to show us whether he can handle such an assignment.

I don't think the Bears' playoff hopes have been completely scuttled. You don't want to minimize the loss of a starting quarterback, but the Bears have won plenty of games in recent years on the strength of their defense and special teams. Their formula works when the quarterback minimizes mistakes more than anything else.

And at this point, the NFC playoff crowd is limited. There are eight teams legitimately fighting for six playoff spots. (I'm not counting anyone with a record below .500 even though they could technically finish 10-6.) The Bears probably need to split their final six games, and maybe win four of them, to clinch a playoff spot. Can they do that with an untested quarterback? We're about to find out.