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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Let’s note right up front that that dream record would also include at least two postseason wins, which would be a first in the era of coach Mike Smith, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan. In their time, the Falcons have played the days after Christmas exactly like they’re the days after Christmas. There’s been a huge letdown when January has rolled around.

That’s putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Falcons. But that might be a good thing. Smith has said postseason failures have caused him to rethink how he does a lot of things. There’s little doubt those failures played a role in the hiring of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, moves that might get the Falcons over the hump.

There are a lot of scouts and coaches around the league who believe Ryan was held back by former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and the defense never established any sort of identity under Brian VanGorder. The Falcons can score with any team if Ryan is allowed (and has time) to throw the ball downfield to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Nolan is preaching about the need to be more aggressive on defense.

Nightmare scenario (8-8 or anything worse): Let’s face it, the only way the Falcons are a .500 (or worse) team is if they have several major injuries or a huge implosion. This is a team that is loaded with individual talent on both sides of the ball. Or so it seems.

When coordinators go, head coaches and key players tend to lose their insulation. If Koetter can’t get more out of Ryan than Mularkey did, the Falcons suddenly have a huge issue at quarterback. If Nolan can’t get guys such as Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson to do more than they did for VanGorder, then maybe it’s not all about the coordinators or offensive and defensive schemes.

Owner Arthur Blank has said Smith isn’t on the hot seat, no matter what happens this season. But I think Smith is at least entering the same territory Tony Dungy once did in Tampa Bay. Smith is getting labeled as a nice guy who can win a lot of games in the regular season but can’t win in January. If this team doesn’t win a playoff game, Smith officially is on the hot seat. If this team somehow fails to even make the playoffs, Blank might be forced to rethink his statement. This team is too talented not to win.

The Giants deal with Hakeem Nicks' foot injury, Falcons coach Mike Smith on his playoff struggles, and Marcellus and Schlereth read between the lines when Mark Sanchez talks at Jets' organized team activities.

As we told you a little bit ago, a league source said the Atlanta Falcons have declined an opportunity to be the featured team on HBO’s “Hard Knocks" this summer.

Now, let’s delve into this a little deeper so we can understand why the Falcons made this decision.

First off, the Falcons explored the possibility of being the featured team very thoroughly. There was intrigue throughout their building and the franchise fully realized that appearing on the show during training camp could help greatly in raising the national profile of a franchise that hasn’t been all that successful until recent years. Virtually every department in the building was involved in discussions about whether the Falcons should accept the invitation.

This wasn’t an easy decision, and the Falcons did have serious interest. In the end, though, they declined. The decision should not be viewed as a knock on the show, the source said. The Falcons saw plenty of positives, but they ultimately decided it was in their best interest – and in the best interest of their fans – to turn it down.

The Falcons want all their focus for the 2012 season to be solely on the field. This makes plenty of sense. The Falcons are facing a critical season. They’ve had four straight winning seasons, but haven’t won a playoff game in that span. After losing to the New York Giants in a January playoff game, owner Arthur Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith pledged to do everything in their power to get the team to the next level.

Instead of making a major splash in free agency, the Falcons chose mostly to retain their own players. There’s a strong belief in the building that new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will bring a change in schemes and attitude that could take the Falcons a step forward.

As intriguing as “Hard Knocks’’ was from a business and marketing standpoint, the decision ultimately came down to football. The Falcons didn’t want to put added pressure on Koetter and Nolan as they tried to install new schemes. Although the Falcons generally are a quiet team, they did recognize some potential dangers in opening all their doors to cameras for training camp. Receiver Roddy White can be outspoken and flamboyant at times and having cameras on him at all times could have presented the potential for controversy. There are a few other players on the roster that also could have brought some risk if the Falcons had decided to open things up.

In the end, the Falcons decided to go about their business quietly. I think that sends a pretty strong message. They’re focused totally on taking the next step and they want to do it by doing everything the right way on the football field. “Hard Knocks" might have brought them attention in the short term.

But the best and purest way the Falcons can enhance their national profile is going out and winning games, especially playoff games.

Breakdown: The Falcons might as well go ahead and appear on HBO’s “Hard Knocks’’ during training camp because they’re going to be regulars on national television. They’ll play two Monday night games (Week 2 against Denver and Week 16 at Detroit), once on Sunday night (against Dallas in Week 9) and a Thursday night game against the New Orleans Saints in Week 13.

This will be the second consecutive season the Falcons have been featured in four prime-time games. This gives Atlanta a chance to really raise its national profile to the highest level in franchise history. That brings pressure, but it also brings a world of opportunity for a franchise that’s trying to get over the hump and win a playoff game for the first time since coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan have been around.

You’ve got to like the fact the Falcons don’t play the New York Giants until Dec. 16. That will be a rematch of last season’s playoff disaster. By that point, we should have a pretty good idea if the Falcons are legitimate contenders and facing the Giants should be a reminder of where they’ve been and where they might be going.

Complaint department: The Falcons play at New Orleans on Nov. 11 and host the Saints on Nov. 29. That’s two games against the Falcons’ biggest rival in 18 days. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather see at least one of these games being played in the last week or two of the season.

Back and forth: The people who made the schedule played it right down the middle on the Falcons. Amazingly, the Falcons don’t play back-to-back home games or consecutive road games all season. They alternate between home and road games all through the season.

Falcons Regular-Season Schedule (All times Eastern)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
Week 2: Monday, Sept. 17, Denver, 8:30 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, at San Diego, 4:05 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, Carolina, 1:00 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, at Washington, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, Oakland, 1:00 PM
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 28, at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, Dallas, 8:20 PM
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, Arizona, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Thursday, Nov. 29, New Orleans, 8:20 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, at Carolina, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, NY Giants, 1:00 PM
Week 16: Saturday, Dec. 22, at Detroit, 8:30 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM

I shared my thoughts with you Wednesday on why the Atlanta Falcons could be a good fit on HBO’s “Hard Knocks’’ this summer.

That’s when we found out the Falcons were getting strong consideration. Now, there’s an updated report that they’ve been offered to be the team featured on the show throughout training camp and the preseason. So, the ball is in the Falcons’ court, and there likely will be some high-level meetings at their Flowery Branch facility before a final decision is made.

One person that’s likely to have a big voice in all this is coach Mike Smith. Some coaches like to keep their teams out of the spotlight, and I’d generally say Smith falls into that category. He’s a low-key guy without much of an ego. But when you look at Smith’s history -- and the current state of the Falcons -- it’s not difficult to see him embracing the opportunity, and intentionally putting some potential distractions in front of his team.

Back when “Hard Knocks’’ made its debut in 2001, Smith was a low-level defensive assistant with the Baltimore Ravens. He also is the brother-in-law of former Baltimore coach Brian Billick. The Ravens were the first team to be featured on “Hard Knocks’’ and Smith had an up-close view of the thinking that went into the team accepting that role and how the process worked.

The Ravens were coming off their Super Bowl victory. At the start of training camp, Billick was asked about why the Ravens chose to be on “Hard Knocks.’’ Thanks to AFC North colleague Jamison Hensley, who covered the Ravens for The Baltimore Sun back in those days and was able to dig up the following quote from his archives.

“I can't imagine much that would be thrown at us in terms of a distraction during the season that we would not have already experienced,’’ Billick said. “Very truthfully, training camp is about providing learning experiences, and that's what this is for my players."

Billick wanted his players to be prepared for the spotlight. They didn’t get back to the Super Bowl, but the 2001 Ravens did go 10-6 and won a playoff game before getting eliminated.

Smith has had four winning seasons since taking over the Falcons. But he’s never won a playoff game. Clearly, the Falcons are a team looking to get over the hump.

Smith might follow the lead of his brother-in-law and embrace the spotlight as a way to help his team take the next step.

In this recent column, Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank talked quite a bit about the importance of continuity.

He cited it as a reason why the Falcons didn’t make a big splash in free agency. That pretty much backs up the philosophy that’s been recited by the Falcons since the arrival of general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith in 2008 -- draft well, keep your core players for the long term, and supplement them with free agents when necessary.

You’ve got to give the Falcons credit for practicing what they preach. This offseason marked the first time that a big portion of a Dimitroff/Smith draft class became eligible for free agency, and the Falcons did a good job of keeping the players they wanted. They re-signed receiver Harry Douglas, safety Thomas DeCoud, and defensive end Kroy Biermann. Quarterback Matt Ryan and offensive tackle Sam Baker, the top two Atlanta picks from 2008, remain under contract. The Falcons did lose middle linebacker Curtis Lofton, a player they had interest in keeping.

The Falcons gave Lofton an offer before free agency, but he had a different figure in mind. Lofton ended up signing with New Orleans for a lot less than his original asking price, and the Falcons are prepared to move on with either veteran Lofa Tatupu or second-year pro Akeem Dent in his place. Ryan is likely to get a contract extension at some point, and the Falcons might use the final year of Baker’s contract to make a decision on if he’s a long-term answer.

I just got some numbers that back up what the Falcons have been saying. When it comes to retaining drafted players, the Falcons are among the league leaders in the Smith/Dimitroff era.

Of the 32 players drafted by the Falcons since 2008, 26 are on the roster. That’s 81.3 percent, which puts the Falcons second only to the Minnesota Vikings, who have an 82.1 percent retention rate in that same time frame (the percentages were current as of early Tuesday afternoon). For the sake of comparison, Denver ranks last in the league by retaining only 48.6 percent of the players drafted since 2008. For more context, Tennessee (77.8 percent) and Houston (75 percent) are the only other teams with a retention rate of 75 percent or better.

Most of the rest of the NFC South also has fared well in retaining draft picks since 2008. Tampa Bay, which has been preaching a philosophy similar to Atlanta’s, ranks No. 7 in the NFL at 70 percent. Of the 31 players the Buccaneers have drafted since 2008, 21 remain on the team.

Although the Saints have had the second-fewest number of picks since 2008, their retention percentage is fairly high at 68.2 percent. Of the 22 players New Orleans has picked, 15 remain on the roster.

Carolina is the only NFC South team in the bottom half of the league in retention. The Panthers are No. 21 at 61.8 percent. They’ve had 34 picks, and 21 remain on the roster.

The Atlanta Falcons shocked more than a few of their fans when they didn’t go after defensive end Mario Williams in free agency.

As owner Arthur Blank explained in this column from Saturday, coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff chose to stick with continuity instead of making splashy moves. Salary-cap considerations factored into that.

There was speculation that the Falcons would let veteran defensive end John Abraham leave when he revealed before the start of free agency that he wanted a deal worth $12 million per season. Abraham didn’t get that kind of money on the open market and he’s back with the Falcons on a three-year contract that averages $5.5 million.

Abraham will turn 34 next month, but the Falcons still believe he can be the key to their pass rush. He had 9.5 sacks last season and 13 in 2010.

“John has been our most productive pass-rusher since we’ve been here,’’ Smith said at the recent NFL owners meeting. Chronologically, his age may say one thing, but his body says another. John will still command how they’re going to block him and that’s going to open other options for (new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan) and what we want to do schematically.’’

The Falcons don’t have a first-round draft pick and may pursue another pass-rusher at some point in the draft. But they still view Abraham as their top threat up front. Defensive end Ray Edwards, Atlanta’s big free-agent signing last year, had just 3.5 sacks last season. The Falcons are expecting more out of Edwards, as well as rotation players Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury. They also want more production out of the middle of their defensive line. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux had just one sack after producing a combined 10 sacks in 2009 and 2010.

“You don’t want to have just one guy that’s getting all the production,’’ Smith said. “You want other defensive linemen and linebackers being productive pass-rushers. If you look at Coach Nolan’s 14 years as a defensive coordinator, he’s been one of the most productive on third down. You want to have a scheme that puts added pressure on the quarterback on third downs."

Given the way Atlanta Falcons fans have reacted to what the team has done (or, more accurately, not done) this offseason, I was expecting Arthur Blank to pull out earmuffs as he reached into his pocket just before the start of an interview last week.

It didn’t happen. Instead, the owner of the Falcons pulled out a pair of sunglasses. This was a rare step outside during the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. He slipped on the shades, surveyed the Atlantic Ocean, sat down on a bench and started explaining, in great detail, the course his team has chosen.

Maybe this will, once and for all, stop all the screaming in Atlanta about how the Falcons didn’t pursue Mario Williams and didn’t really do much of anything in free agency. Blank’s got a detailed answer for that and, when you listen, it should all start to make sense.

There was a moment when I looked directly at Blank, but could have sworn I was seeing and hearing Gene Hackman. It was almost exactly like the scene in “Hoosiers," where the basketball coach played by Hackman firmly tells a referee “my team is on the court," after a player fouls out and the coach elects to go with four players instead of turning back to a player who had defied orders.

Blank has said “My team is on the field."

Yeah, the marquee free-agent signings have been linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai. And Atlanta fans aren’t exactly jumping up and down about the fact that the Falcons re-signed defensive end John Abraham and center Todd McClure, who wouldn’t have surprised anyone if they decided to retire. Throw in the re-signing of role players Thomas DeCoud, Jason Snelling and Harry Douglas and it’s easy to see why a lot of Atlanta fans believe the Falcons haven’t done a single thing to get better after ending last season with an embarrassing playoff loss to the New York Giants.

But Blank has an explanation, so let’s hear it.

“I feel good about where we are,’’ Blank said. “I know we didn’t make a big splash going into free agency. But that really wasn’t our intention going into this year. We really felt we had a lot of talent. We were fortunate that we had the opportunity to bring in the two new coordinators and a few other coaches. At some points, it’s not even a matter of if the contents are correct. Sometimes, it’s a matter of who is delivering the message and whether the players are hearing it or not.’’

The man makes a good point. The 2011 Falcons that went 10-6 and never really played with a lot of consistency were essentially the same team that went 13-3 and played with a great deal of consistency in 2010. The 2012 Falcons have largely the same roster as the previous two teams. In the eyes of Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith, the problem last season and the reason this team hasn’t won a playoff game under the current administration isn’t about the roster.

Maybe the roster was just fine, but the coaching staff and the schemes were holding back the Falcons. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left after the season to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left after the season to become the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Both men left on their own, but I get the impression that if they hadn’t, they might have been shown the door.

Let’s be honest here. Mularkey’s offensive system reached its peak in 2010 and didn’t get any better even with the addition of talented rookie receiver Julio Jones last season. VanGorder’s defense was solid, but never dominant, which was a disappointment because the Falcons have some individual talent on defense. Mularkey’s been replaced by Dirk Koetter, and VanGorder’s been replaced by Mike Nolan.

“I love the selections that Smitty and Thomas made,’’ Blank said.

I get the sense that the days of Matt Ryan rolling out and almost always checking down are over. I get the sense that the days of sitting back in the Cover 2 are long gone.

“Dirk and I have had numerous discussions in terms of what our players are capable of doing,’’ Smith said during the meetings. “I think, first and foremost, you have to design your schemes toward what the players are capable of doing. We’ve spent a lot of time identifying the strengths and weakness of all our guys and what they do well and what they don’t do well, and we want to put together an offense that accentuates their strengths.’’

In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to be handing the ball to Michael Turner 300-plus times a season. They’re going to try to take some shots downfield with Jones and Roddy White and they’re going to get versatile second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. They also will try to put Ryan in a position where he can go from being a good quarterback to an elite one.

Smith said he’s had similar discussions with Nolan, the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, who also has had success as a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Nolan is noted for producing aggressive defenses. Some minor tweaks to attitude and scheme could provide an upgrade over the VanGorder units that never were able to establish any sort of identity.

Blank made quite a bit of noise after the loss to the Giants about how simply getting to the playoffs wasn’t good enough. He wants his team to win playoff games and contend for the Super Bowl.

That really hasn’t changed. But, after the heat of the moment cooled a bit, Blank, Smith and Dimitroff sat back and realized they weren’t all that far from where they wanted to be. Early in his days as an owner, Blank was portrayed as hands-on and reactionary. I don’t think those descriptions really fit him anymore and I think he’s learned from his past. I think Blank is at a stage where he remains plugged in but trusts Smith and Dimitroff to make the football decisions.

“I went back and studied this over a long period of time in the NFL and studied the great teams,’’ Blank said. “Consistency is very important in terms of leadership with coaches and players. The great teams, what they have done is they’ve kept their head coaches for a longer period of time, kept their general managers for a longer period of time and they identified early enough their core players and they extended them. The football staff has done a great job of identifying the players that can help us and keep them.’’

The salary cap also was a factor in the Falcons’ approach to the offseason. Pursuing Williams or some other big names in free agency would have meant sacrificing continuity. The only key player the Falcons lost was middle linebacker Curtis Lofton -- and that was a calculated loss. Lofton wanted a lot of money and Atlanta placed a limit on his value. If they’d made just one or two big moves in free agency and kept Lofton, guys like Abraham, McClure, DeCoud, Douglas and Snelling wouldn’t be on the roster. Other players would have had to have been cut to free up cap room. The Falcons could have made a splash, but it would have left them with all sorts of holes.

“What you have to look at is, this is not like baseball,’’ Blank said. “There are limits. This is real money and not monopoly money. That’s one of the beauties in the NFL is that in July and August fans of every team think their team has a chance to go to the playoffs or to go to the Super Bowl and win it. The salary-cap system forces you to make some tough choices. Thomas and Smitty and their staffs made these choices because they believe they were the ones that will give us the biggest bang for the buck going forward. I certainly tested their logic and asked questions, but I think their plan was all very sound and well formulated.’’

Like it or not, Blank is putting his team (the one chosen by Smith and Dimitroff) on the field this fall. You might not like it now and that’s fine with Blank. He thinks you’ll like it a lot more as the season goes along.

USA Today sports television writer Michael Hiestand throws out a fascinating suggestion, writing that the New Orleans Saints should be featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks’’ this summer.

It would be a fascinating story -- a close-up look at a team preparing to go through a season without suspended head coach Sean Payton. There could be even many more layers to this story before training camp arrives. Bill Parcells could be in Payton’s place and it’s possible multiple players also could be facing suspensions. This is unprecedented stuff for an NFL team and the drama could be tremendous.

Would the Saints accept if the show is offered to them? Tough question. In normal years, I’d say no. Payton runs a tight ship and I’d have a tough time seeing him giving cameras total access to his team. But this is not a normal year. Despite all the turmoil that has come out of the bounty program, the Saints have some charming players that could put this team back in a positive light. This might not be a bad move.

Could any other NFC South teams be candidates for the show?

The Atlanta Falcons last year made some vague statements that they could be interested if the time was right. Atlanta has the kind of veteran team that could probably handle the distractions that might come with this. But I have a tough time seeing coach Mike Smith being in favor of opening up his locker room and meeting rooms to the world.

The Carolina Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise and quarterback Cam Newton is a media darling. That could make the Panthers interesting to HBO and NFL Films. But as long as Marty Hurney is the general manager, I don’t see the Panthers going down this road.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were courted for the show last season and former coach Raheem Morris was lobbying for his team to be on the show. Ultimately, the Bucs declined. They said they wanted to make sure their young team was at a point in its development where it could handle potential distractions. That was probably a wise move because last season showed the Bucs were far from a finished product. My early impressions of new coach Greg Schiano are that he’s not the kind of guy that would want to put his team in the spotlight. That could change once Schiano’s been around a year or two, but I’m guessing the Bucs aren’t interested this year.

We’ve been talking a lot about the Buccaneers and Panthers and what they may do in the draft and that’s mainly because they’re the only two NFC South teams with a first-round pick.

The Saints don’t pick until the third round, but now that we’re into April, it’s a good time to start talking about the Falcons and what they might do in the second round (at No. 55 overall).

A lot of people are talking about Atlanta getting a left tackle. But you don’t usually find future All-Pro tackles deep in the second round. The Falcons could take a tackle somewhere in this draft, but coach Mike Smith recently made it sound like the team will give Sam Baker one more chance.

When asked about tackles that might be available in the second round, ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay ticked off a group (Florida State’s Zebrie Sanders, Cal’s Mitchell Schwartz and Mississippi’s Bobby Massie) that he referred to as "third-tier offensive tackles."

“Bobby Massie would probably be the best available and maybe best case scenario coming out of Mississippi,’’ McShay said in a recent conference call with the national media. “I don't know that he's going to fall all the way there, but if he does it's a possibility. Zebrie Sanders from Florida State, there is a good chance he'll be there. He kind of fits what they want to do. He fits that Florida State zone-blocking scheme, and I think he has the athleticism to play left tackle, but I'm not necessarily convinced of it. It's always hard to plug your left tackle, and it's not going to be easy to do.’’

I’m not sure it makes sense for the Falcons to take a “third-tier offensive tackle’’ with their first draft pick. They were reluctant to play interior linemen Joe Hawley and Mike Johnson right away when they drafted them in the middle rounds in 2010. I don’t see them being more willing to play a rookie right away at left tackle.

McShay brought up another interesting scenario for the Falcons with their second-round pick and this guy should be familiar to Atlanta fans. McShay mentioned Georgia cornerback Brandon Boykin as a possibility and he did it enthusiastically.

“He's just so fast,’’ McShay. “Everything he does is fast. I think his instincts need to improve. I know his instincts need to improve. He's late diagnosing some throws. When they put him in the zone, he can get lost a little bit, and that's not really his strength. But he's such a good athlete. He can absolutely fly. His vertical leap is just insane. He's just so physically gifted. You see the suddenness, the explosiveness. To me, maybe he's just a nickel corner, but maybe you get production out of him on the offensive side if you're creative enough. You definitely get production out of him and potentially some big plays in the return game.’’

Hmm, I have a tough time seeing Smith, who usually is viewed as a conservative type, letting someone play offense and defense. But, then again, maybe owner Arthur Blank can get in Smith’s ear about that possibility. Blank has developed a pretty strong relationship with Deion Sanders, who once played a little offense in addition to cornerback. Sanders also was a top-notch return man.

That’s a skill that could make Boykin particularly attractive to the Falcons. They recently let return man Eric Weems leave via free agency.

Sometime this week, Arthur Blank and Matt Ryan will get together. It’s something the owner of the Atlanta Falcons and his quarterback do every offseason.

It’s nothing overly formal and shouldn’t be looked at as Ryan’s performance review -- that’s done by the coaching staff and general manager Thomas Dimitroff. This meeting is generally more about Blank and Ryan discussing the state of the franchise, and that means they’ll also touch on Ryan’s development.

At the NFL owners meetings last week, I asked Blank for a summary of what he plans to discuss with Ryan and if he has any specific message for his quarterback.

“He’s grown as a quarterback,’’ Blank said. “He’s grown as an individual. He’s obviously a great team leader. People recognize that and identify with him. He’s exactly what you would want in the CEO of a business. He’s the first to work and the last to leave. He works the hardest and studies. He provides all kinds of leadership on and off the field. I’m thrilled where he is.’’

It’s one thing to be thrilled, but I don’t think Blank, Ryan, the coaching staff and front office are satisfied with what the Falcons accomplished last season. Although Ryan had the best statistics of his career, the Falcons went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. They have yet to win a playoff game since the arrival of Ryan and coach Mike Smith in 2008.

It’s pretty safe to assume that fact will be brought up when Blank and Ryan meet.

“He understands this, that to become an “elite’’ quarterback in the league, you’ve got to win playoff games,’’ Blank said. “Smitty understands that. Thomas understands that. I think we’ve done a remarkable job the last four years considering it took us 42 years to have any back-to-back winning seasons. But there are three seasons in the NFL. There’s a preseason, a regular season and a postseason. We haven’t played well in the postseason. Smitty understands that, Thomas understands that and we need to change that. And Matt certainly understands that as well.’’

I asked Blank what Ryan has to do to take that next step. The owner sounded like he believes his quarterback remains headed in the right direction.

“All the things he’s doing are things he has to continue to do," Blank said. “He has to continue to have humility. He has to continue to be willing to learn and grow. He has to be excited about the opportunity to get better and I think he does all that. I think the worst thing you can see in a leader whether it’s on a football team or in business, is to see someone say 'I’ve gotten as much as I can get and I’ll just keep performing that way.' But you have an opportunity to grow throughout life, professionally as well as personally. I think he has that mentality. It’s not just words with him. He really believes that. We’re fortunate to have him as our franchise quarterback and look forward to a long relationship with him."

They were first-round picks and that alone created enormous expectations for Atlanta offensive tackle Sam Baker and defensive tackle Peria Jerry.

Baker was taken in 2008, the same year the Falcons drafted quarterback Matt Ryan. The theory was, the Falcons would have their franchise quarterback and the protector of their franchise quarterback for the next decade or so. Jerry was taken in 2009 and was expected to be a dominant run stopper as well as provide a little interior pass rush. On paper, both picks looked like smart moves at the time.

In cold, hard reality, Baker and Jerry never have lived up to the expectations of Atlanta fans. They haven’t even come close. Baker was viewed as serviceable at first, but he’s regressed in the eyes of fans. And their perception was pretty close to reality last season, when journeyman Will Svitek ended up starting ahead of him. Jerry’s career simply was cursed almost right from the start. In the second game of his rookie season, Jerry tore up his knee. The Falcons and Jerry have never officially described the injury, but let’s just say Jerry tore just about everything in his knee. He barely has been a factor since.

That’s why there was speculation Baker and Jerry would be cut this offseason. But, guess what? That’s not happening. Our first clue came when free agency started. If the Falcons were going to pull the plug on Baker and Jerry, it would have happened before free agency started in March because that would have given the Falcons some much-needed cap room.

But, now, we’ve got even more concrete proof. I sat down with Atlanta coach Mike Smith during the NFL owners meeting earlier this week. I asked him specifically about the futures of Baker and Jerry.

In each case, Smith, as straight-forward a coach as I’ve ever dealt with, said the Falcons remain “committed’’ to Jerry and Baker.

Let’s start with Baker. This one might be painful to fans, but it’s a little easier to see what Smith is saying. The reality is, you just don’t find a franchise left tackle in the draft when you’re not picking until the second round. There wasn’t anything close to a franchise left tackle in free agency. In that situation, sometimes it’s best to stick with what you’ve got instead of reaching. Apparently, that’s what the Falcons are planning to do.

“We are very committed to Sam Baker,’’ Smith said. “I think Sam has a long future with us.’’

Smith is the kind of coach that likes to say most positions are open to competition in training camp. I think that’s true at left tackle, where Baker will have to compete with Svitek and anyone else the Falcons might bring in between now and then. But I also got the impression the Falcons are hoping Baker steps up and claims the job. I’m not saying Baker will ever be a Pro Bowler, but I think this guy has been banged up a lot more than people realize. I get the impression the Falcons think Baker can be adequate or slightly better than that, if he’s healthy.

“I think that Sam has shown a lot of resiliency,’’ Smith said. “Sam really has worked through a lot of injuries throughout his career. He’s played through a lot of things. Sam, in my mind, was playing very well through the first five or six games last season until he was injured and had to have the procedure done on his back, which put him out for a very significant amount of time.’’

Jerry’s a bit of a different story. I think the Falcons pretty much have accepted the fact, he never will be a superstar. But Smith made it sound like there still is a spot on the roster for Jerry as a role player.

“We’ve committed to Peria Jerry and Peria ended up playing about 30 percent of the snaps (last season),’’ Smith said. “He was a rotational player. He had some production, but it wasn’t consistent production throughout the year.’’

I reminded Smith how he said he thought Jerry would bounce back and have a big impact last season because he was further out from the knee surgery. That obviously didn’t happen and I asked Smith if Jerry’s knee still was holding him back last season.

“I can’t say that it is an issue,’’ Smith said. “It was a significant injury. I don’t know that Peria was the same guy he was before the injury. You see his ability to get up the field at times and we still feel he can be a very productive player for us.’’

I wouldn’t look for Jerry to suddenly jump into the starting lineup. Corey Peters has developed into a very solid defensive tackle. The other starter is Jonathan Babineaux. Although he’s coming off a sub-par season, it wasn’t all that long ago that Babineaux was the best defensive tackle in the NFC South. I’d look for Jerry to continue to rotate in behind those two guys. If he can be a little more consistent and productive than he was last season, I think the Falcons will be content with Jerry as their third defensive tackle.

“We need to be more consistent,’’ Smith said. “Not only Peria, but across the board on the defensive line.’’

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- With Curtis Lofton moving to the New Orleans Saints as a free agent, Atlanta coach Mike Smith isn’t ready to say who his new starting middle linebacker will be.

The candidates obviously are veteran Lofa Tatupu and second-year pro Akeem Dent. The fact is Smith doesn’t even want to pick one right now. He wants this thing to sort itself out on the field.

“I think those two guys are coming to camp and will compete for the Mike linebacker position,’’ Smith said during this week’s owners meetings. “They’ll be on even terms. It’s an open competition. We believe in open competition. We believe you get what you earn and you earn what you get.’’

Coaches often spew clichés about open competitions, but don’t mean them because they’ve already made a decision or at least are leaning strongly in another direction. But, in this case, I think Smith is being completely honest.

He wants the competition between Dent and Tatupu to play out naturally. There’s really not a bad option here. In a best-case scenario, I think the Falcons would be thrilled if Dent steps forward and shows he’s ready for the starting job. He’s the guy they want there in the long term anyway. But I don’t think the Falcons will go into a panic if Dent’s not ready to start. Tatupu is their insurance policy. He sat out last season and should be rested and healthy. He once was a very good player in Seattle and might have something left in the tank.

I also get the impression that whoever wins the job might only be a two-down player. Part of the reason the Falcons didn’t want to pay Lofton big money was because new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan didn’t want to use him on passing downs. I’m not sure they want to use Dent or Tatupu in those situations either.

The Falcons have two quick and athletic outside linebackers in Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas. I don’t think they’d mind going with them on passing downs.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- Although there is no lockout this year, the three younger starting quarterbacks in the NFC South are facing some unique offseason hurdles.

Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith said Monday at the owners meetings he wishes quarterback Matt Ryan already was working with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Prior to the lockout, offseason programs used to start in mid-March. But the collective-bargaining agreement signed last summer changed the rules for offseason programs.

Ryan and the Falcons can’t start their offseason program until April 16. It’s the same for the Carolina Panthers and second-year quarterback Cam Newton. At least Newton will be playing in the same offense he was in last season with coordinator Rob Chudzinski. But Newton had no offseason program last season and will face a shorter one than teams had in the past.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Josh Freeman catches a bit of a break because league rules allow teams with new coaches to start their offseason programs two weeks earlier than other teams. The Bucs have a new coach in Greg Schiano and Freeman will have to quickly digest a new offense with coordinator Mike Sullivan.

Although the New Orleans Saints face an uncertain future with coach Sean Payton scheduled to begin a suspension April 1, they should have an advantage in this area. They’ve got a veteran quarterback in Drew Brees, assuming he signs his franchise tender or agrees to a new contract before the offseason program starts. Payton built one of the league’s most prolific offenses and Brees has mastered it. No matter who is acting as head coach of the Saints, the offensive system isn't likely to change at all and the shortened offseason shouldn’t present as much of a challenge as it does for Ryan, Freeman and Newton.

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank has given a ringing endorsement of coach Mike Smith.

There’s been some talk in league circles that Smith could be on the hot seat because he’s failed to win a playoff game despite having a winning record in each of his first four seasons. Blank strongly shot down that talk in a conversation with Pete Prisco.

"I think if you tell me Mike Smith is on the hot seat, then find a hot seat on the North Pole," Blank said. "That's as hot a seat as he's on. That perception is about as far from the truth as you can get."

Some of the speculation out there has included suggestions that Smith could be out of a job if he doesn’t win a playoff game in the 2012 season. But Blank told Prisco that Smith is safe, no matter what happens next season.

"Absolutely," Blank said. "He will be fine. He will be here for a very long time."

I think Blank sincerely believes that and he should because Smith is the best coach in franchise history. In a position where many have mercurial personalities, Smith is an exception. He’s a steady hand and I think that’s why his team has been a consistent winner in the regular season. But I also think part of the reason Blank believes Smith will be around is because the owner firmly believes the coach and the Falcons are gong to take the next step next season. Right after their playoff loss to the Giants last season, Blank publicly said that simply getting to the postseason isn’t acceptable.

Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff know that and I’m pretty sure they feel the same way. They’re both competitive guys and they don’t like coming up short in the postseason any more than Blank does.

There’s a good foundation in Atlanta and Blank doesn’t need to put pressure on Smith and Dimitroff to take the next step. They’ve put that pressure on themselves. The Falcons already have changed offensive and defensive coordinators and made other switches on the coaching staff. They’ve been quiet in free agency so far, but I expect Smith and Dimitroff to make a couple of calculated strikes at some point.

Despite the ugly loss to the Giants and some inconsistency in the regular season, I still view the Falcons as a team with the arrow pointing up. There will be some tweaks -- for the better -- in the offensive and defensive schemes. There will be some personnel added in free agency and the draft.

There also have been lessons learned in each of the four seasons that came up short of the ultimate goal. Smith and Dimitroff are sharp guys. They’re also very analytical. Fans can say the Falcons haven’t done anything this offseason and that’s true from a personnel standpoint. But Smith and Dimitroff haven’t been sitting still.

I’m sure they’ve used the past few months figuring out how they can take the next step.