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There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not posses the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.

As they approached their second-round position Friday night, the Detroit Lions sure seemed to be sitting pretty. A team with a shortage of cornerbacks was looking at a nice group of second-tier defensive backs whose time on the market appeared up. In addition, the draft's top center was still available if the Lions were inclined to secure a future replacement for starter Dominic Raiola.

With their No. 54 overall pick, the Lions passed on Wisconsin center Peter Konz, who ultimately went one slot later to the Atlanta Falcons.

They turned away a trio of cornerbacks: Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward, Montana's Trumaine Johnson and Central Florida's Josh Robinson. Hayward went at No. 62 to the Green Bay Packers, Johnson at No. 65 to the St. Louis Rams and Robinson at No. 66 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Lions? Naturally, they went for a 24-year-old slot receiver who tore his anterior cruciate ligament last November. Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles will join a seemingly crowded position group that also includes Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and 2011 second-round pick Titus Young.

I got a number of immediate reactions along these lines of this one from @breynolds0324: "Sadly, best case he is 4th receiver. That secondary made [Matt] Flynn a multimillionaire. Feel like we are a secondary away from SB."

I understand where you're coming from, and perhaps some of you were assuaged when the Lions drafted Louisiana-Lafayette cornerback Dwight Bentley in the third round. But I feel like many of you allowed your immediate emotions to overtake rational thought, and more importantly, what should be a clear understanding of how the Lions operate under general manager Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz.

You can object to the relative lack of attention the Lions have paid their secondary during this rebuilding process. Feel free to dispute their assessment of the talent they've passed over. But by now, like it or not, you should have come to expect that they will follow their board in as much of a vacuum as any team in the NFL. And I hope you also realize that approach has left the Lions short in the secondary but is probably the single-biggest factor in their return to contention.

"You don't solve needs by drafting poor players," Lions coach Jim Schwartz told reporters in Detroit. "… There's a discipline that goes into it. You have to be able to stick with that philosophy. The philosophy is: 'Talent rules the board.' … If you chase need, you're chasing a moving target. What looks like a need one day might not be a need another day. If you have the discipline to say, 'Hey look, let's get good football players that fit a philosophy that we have a plan for, that continue to be the highest rated guys on your board,' then you're going to be successful over the long run.

"Even in this organization in the past, I think everybody knows some examples where this organization reached for certain players because of needs. I don't see how that solves your need. When it's all said and done, the need is still there."

It would be reasonable to question whether, say, Hayward would have been a reach at No. 54 when the Packers selected him just a few spots later. But the more relevant question is whether the Lions would have left a more talented player on the board. And in the Lions' evaluation, they would have. That made their decision easy Friday night at No. 54.

Broyles is one of the most productive receivers in the history of college football, having caught an NCAA-record 349 passes in his career. Just five months after surgery to repair his ACL, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.57 seconds. Mayhew, whose success in recent drafts grants him some leeway in making such judgments, told reporters: "If the guy were healthy now he'd have been gone way before our pick."

And while they are in fact stacked at the front end of their depth chart, the Lions in reality were one injury away from not being able to use offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's three-receiver set. Burleson, meanwhile, will turn 32 this summer. In other words, the Lions could be a year or two away from having an obvious need at receiver. As we discussed Thursday, the key to orderly transitions is acquiring the replacement before he is needed.

Look, the Lions don't need me to be an apologist for a decision -- and thus far, an entire draft -- that might not have much impact on their 2012 team. You have a right to dispute it. But you shouldn't be surprised, and the Lions' success to this point earns them at least a partial benefit of the doubt from me.

The Detroit Lions' decision to use a second-round draft pick on Oklahoma receiver Ryan Broyles is one we probably shouldn't examine too thoroughly until we've had a chance to hear from all concerned parties.

The fact is that Broyles tore an anterior cruciate ligament five months ago and hasn't fully recovered. He didn't work out at the NFL scouting combine but did get on the field for his pro day.

The Lions are relatively deep at receiver with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young. Broyles was a highly touted prospect before the injury, and so the success of this pick would seem to rest with his recovery and what plans the Lions have for him among their crowded receiving corps.

Regardless, you wonder how much either of the Lions' top two picks -- offensive lineman Riley Reiff and Broyles -- will contribute in 2012. That's not necessarily a bad thing. It could be seen from a position of strength, but it also means the Lions still haven't addressed their cornerback or safety positions. More a bit later this evening.

I typically put my best virtual stiff arm on all attempts to project the division finish until at least after the draft, if not once after training camp. It's a fun debate whenever we have it, but I figure we should at least have a strong sense of the makeup of each roster before diving in.

So consider this post a preview to that inevitable discussion, spurred by an interesting analogy from Detroit Lions receiver Nate Burleson during an appearance this week on the NFL Network. (Video here.)

Burleson was asked if the Lions are ready to win the division. His full response:

"I think so. I don't want to sit here and tell you what we're going to do. Obviously I'm confident in the team. We lost a couple close games to Green Bay, split with Chicago, and had a good showing against Minnesota last year.

"But from an outside perspective, I think everybody looks at it like this: Green Bay is driving the car. Up front in the passenger seat is Chicago. In the back, you've got the Vikings and you've got the Lions. We're sitting there begging them, asking them, 'Are we there yet, are we there yet?'

"It's time for us to get out of the car and see who wants to drive. The division is up for anybody who wants it. We've got a tough division, and I like it."

Why are the Bears in the front seat and why are the Lions still in the restless kids' area? Perhaps Burleson was recognizing -- fairly, I think -- that the Bears had a step on the Lions last season until quarterback Jay Cutler's fractured thumb changed the outlook. Would the Lions have been a playoff team if Cutler stayed healthy? Fair question.

The Packers, who won the Super Bowl in 2010 and were 15-1 last season, will get the benefit of the doubt in most national discussions. But if the point of Burleson's response was to suggest this is a three-team race (sorry, Vikings), then I'm on board. The Lions did enough last season to be rightfully included in the discussion with the Packers and Bears. Let's see if anyone's draft changes the parameters of this debate.

The Detroit Lions have accomplished the difficult, complicated and expensive task of retaining the core of the team that lifted them to their first playoff appearance in a decade. The final domino to fall was middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch, who agreed to a five-year contract hours before his potential replacement was scheduled to visit the team's practice facility.

Tulloch's deal means that 21 of the Lions' 22 offensive and defensive starters from last season are now under contract. The exception is cornerback Eric Wright, whom the Lions wisely chose not to pursue once the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offered him a pricey five-year contract worth $37.5 million.

Otherwise, however, the Lions systematically took care of business over the past month, navigating a tight salary cap situation by using most every tool at their disposal. At times, it required premium cash outlays that not every NFL team would commit to.

In summary, the Lions:

• Restructured the contracts of quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Nate Burleson and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, freeing up some $16 million in cap space.
• Used the franchise tag to prevent the departure of defensive end Cliff Avril, a move that in essence guarantees Avril a one-year deal worth $10.6 million.
• Issued a second-round tender to linebacker DeAndre Levy, essentially giving him a one-year deal worth $1.927 million.
• Took a $1.6 million cap credit as their share of an NFL discipline that took cap space away from the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys.
• Freed up about $9 million more in cap space by extending the contract of receiver Calvin Johnson. For the moment, at least, Johnson is the NFL's highest-paid player with an eight-year deal worth a total of $132 million, of which $60 million is guaranteed.
• Re-signed left tackle Jeff Backus to a two-year deal worth $10 million.

Although it took the longest, Tulloch's agreement was no less important than any of those we just ran through. Tulloch made a substantive impact on the Lions' defense as both a leader and a sure tackler. He proved exceptionally durable, playing on all but 19 of their defensive snaps in 2011, and provided a true fixture that allowed Levy to play a more a natural role on the outside.

Negotiations stalled to the point where the Lions scheduled free agent David Hawthorne for a visit. (Funny how the timing often works.) In the end, however, the Lions have managed to keep together their best team in a generation, and now they can look for ways to supplement it through secondary free agency and the draft.

In a matter of a few hours, it appears the Detroit Lions have cut enough salary cap space -- or, more accurately, pushed enough of it to future years -- that they can avoid cutting any any players in order to comply with the NFL's salary cap limit by Tuesday's deadline. Let's quickly catch up on what they've done and try to get a handle on what it means.

The Lions opened the day more than $11 million above the cap, but multiple reports, including this one from the Detroit Free Press and another from the Lions' web site, have confirmed the team restructured the contracts of quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Nate Burleson. The team reduced Stafford's cap number by more than $7 million and Burleson's by $2.175 million.

Meanwhile, the agent for defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh told Fox Sports Detroit that Suh has also agreed to a restructure, and Suh's new cap number will low enough to account for more than $11 million in total cap savings when combined with the restructures of Stafford and Burleson.

We don't yet know how much under the cap the Lions will enter the NFL's new league year with Tuesday, but a rough estimate would put them about $5 million under at this point. A few other points to keep in mind:

1. The Lions will need a certain portion of that surplus to sign their draft picks.
2. They'll need enough room to re-sign linebacker Stephen Tulloch, who appears set to test the free agent market.
3. The Lions have yet to announce the restricted free agent tenders they presumably will give to linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive tackle Sammie Hill. The minimum combined cap hit of those two tenders will be $3.8 million.
4. Pushing $7 million in cap space into the final three years of Stafford's deal means he will be in a position similar to receiver Calvin Johnson next year at this time. If my math is right, Stafford's salary cap number will exceed $20 million for 2013. Johnson's cap number is about $22 million at the moment, and it will stay that way unless he and the Lions agree to a long-term extension.
5. Stafford's restructure was absolutely necessary and shouldn't result in any change in the cash he will receive in 2012, but it should also work in Stafford's favor when those long-term negotiations begin. The higher Stafford's base salary, the higher is eventual franchise tag number would be. That eventually serves as a baseline for negotiations.
6. The Lions have the option to borrow more cap space, about $1.5 million, from future years under the NFL's new collective bargaining agreement.
7. This is important: While it's not ideal, pushing cap commitments ahead isn't necessarily an irresponsible financial approach. The NFL's new television contracts will kick in for the 2014 season, an event that is expected to elevate the league's total cap space considerably.

We're going to get some mileage out of the research I did, and had forwarded to me, for our 2011 All-NFC North team. The first installment is left over from the debate that ultimately led me to choose Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson over the Minnesota Vikings' Percy Harvin.

I checked out their playing time as part of comparing their production. As it turned out, Nelson and Harvin were on the field for almost exactly the same amount of time. Nelson played 609 snaps and Harvin 605. (All numbers in this post exclude penalties, which means they vary slightly from the figures we've used during the season.) The percentages of their team's total snaps were close as well: 58.9 for Nelson and 58.4 for Harvin.

That makes sense for Nelson, who was part of the NFL's deepest receiving corps. But I have a hard time understanding how Harvin -- by far the Vikings' best receiver in 2011 and one of their few playmakers -- was on the sideline for more than 40 percent of a mostly punchless team's snaps.

Across the NFL, 54 receivers played a higher percentage of their team's snaps than Harvin did. That includes teammate Devin Aromashodu, who eventually stepped into the starting lineup after Bernard Berrian's departure and Michael Jenkins' injury. Aromashodu caught 26 passes while playing on 674 snaps, 69 more than Harvin. (Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe led Vikings pass-catchers by playing 76.1 percent of the team's snaps.)

I think we all assumed that Harvin would be the Vikings' No. 1 receiver, and it was immediately surprising when he played about half of the snaps in the Vikings' first two games. At the time, coach Leslie Frazier said: "We have certain packages where we want to feature him, and not necessarily overuse him, but use him to help our football team."

Many of us dropped the issue given Harvin's season-long productivity, but in the end the Vikings finished the season with the NFL's fifth-fewest passing yards while their best receiver was on the sideline for 41.6 percent of their plays. That's hard to defend.

On the other hand, it's possible the Vikings believed Harvin would be more effective with managed snaps. He did, after all, catch a career-high 87 passes while rushing for 345 yards out of the backfield. The Vikings also had him as their primary kickoff returner on 30 of the kickoffs they faced.

Frazier denied during the season that his playing-time plan for Harvin was related to his migraine history, but it's worth noting that Harvin had no reported issues this season. Did the limited contact contribute to that? Assuming Frazier was being truthful, the two events were coincidental.

Regardless, in the big picture Harvin is too young to be on a pitch count. He won't turn 24 until May. It's true that he was managing a rib injury late in the season, but that doesn't account for 431 plays on the sideline. There is every reason to believe that Harvin could and should play at least as much as the No. 1 or No. 2 receivers on other teams.

For context, here are the NFC North receivers who played a higher percentage of snaps than Harvin in 2011:

• Calvin Johnson: 93.2
• Nate Burleson: 87.1
• Aromashodu: 65.1
• Titus Young: 63.1
• Greg Jennings: 62.2
• Roy Williams: 59.6
• Nelson: 58.9

Consider that Jennings played more snaps in 12 1/2 games before suffering a knee injury than Harvin did in 16. In the end, Harvin had the best year of his career when playing limited snaps. The Vikings must spend part of this offseason deciding if that was the reason, or if they artificially capped his production by overcompensating on his playing time.

» Wild-Card Final Word: Bengals-Texans | Lions-Saints | Falcons-Giants | Steelers-Broncos

Three nuggets of knowledge about Saturday's Lions-Saints wild-card game:

Historic battle: I did my best this week to make our preview coverage about the actual game and its matchups, as opposed to just how unprecedented a victory Saturday night would be in recent Lions history. (Here's a link to our handy "Lions-Saints" tag.) But here goes: The Lions are one of two NFL teams never to have won a wild-card playoff game, tallying an 0-6 record since its advent, according to ESPN Stats & Information. They haven't won a playoff game of any sort since the 1991 season, and its been 54 years since they've won a playoff game on the road. (A 31-27 victory at the San Francisco 49ers in the 1957 Western Conference playoffs.) The Lions are 11-point underdogs against a Saints team that hasn't lost at home this season. It's no surprise that the Twitter hashtag #shocktheworld has emerged this week. For any number of reasons, there aren't many people counting on a Lions victory Saturday night.

More than Megatron: Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams noted this week that "guys that are 6-5 end up being 5-5 when they get flipped over on their head," an obvious reference to Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. But no matter how much attention the Saints pay to Johnson, they'll no doubt be aware of the impressive across-the-board production the Lions got during their 3-1 finish to the regular season. Johnson caught 27 passes and four touchdowns over that span, but tight end Brandon Pettigrew also caught 27 passes, while receiver Nate Burleson had 22 and Titus Young 17. Young scored four touchdowns, Pettigrew two and Burleson one. The Lions aren't likely to win if Johnson gets shut out, but they have the capacity to compete even if he is limited, especially if quarterback Matthew Stafford can beat the Saints' blitz as we discussed earlier this week.

Impact player: As the quarterback, Stafford will have more opportunities to impact the outcome of the game than any other Lions player. But a close second will be any of the Lions' key pass-rushers up front. Whether it's Ndamukong Suh or Kyle Vanden Bosch or Cliff Avril, someone needs to make Saints quarterback Drew Brees uncomfortable in the pocket early and maintain the pressure for the duration. Otherwise, Brees will pick the Lions apart. In the teams' first meeting, the Lions put Brees under duress on only three of his 38 dropbacks. He completed 26 of his resulting 36 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Suh, Vanden Bosch and Avril have each had dominant games at one point or another in their careers. At least one of them must produce another Saturday night.

The Detroit Lions this season have provided anecdotal evidence of what has long been asserted through statistical analysis: Penalty totals don't necessarily correlate with winning percentage.

The Lions ranked third in the NFL this season in accepted penalties (128) and second in the amount of yards lost (1,075). They drew national attention for committing three post-whistle personal fouls in their Week 13 game at the New Orleans Saints, but even after cleaning up that issue, they exceeded their season averages in three of their subsequent four games, as the chart shows.

Those numbers coincide with what Lions coach Jim Schwartz preached in the days after that Saints game: The timing and nature of the penalty is more important than the raw totals. Against the Saints, the Lions were penalized 11 times for 107 yards, but also had 113 yards in gains nullified by those penalties. Three offensive pass interference calls against receiver Nate Burleson, along with post-whistle mistakes by receiver Titus Young, tight end Brandon Pettigrew and kick returner Stefan Logan, caused a disproportionate amount of the damage.

"The one thing you don't want to do in a game like that is give away anything for free," Schwartz told New Orleans-area media. "In a playoff game you want to earn it. You want your opponent to have to earn it. That's one thing we need to do better Saturday than we did the last Sunday night game."

Given a choice, I'm sure Schwartz would prefer that his team lower the penalty average Saturday night. But as long as they avoid penalties that, as he said, give away yards for free, I'm guessing he can live with it.

Suzy, Mort, and Tedy debate if the Pats can overcome defensive woes, why the 49ers aren’t considered contenders, and in Did You Hear That?, Nate Burleson says the Lions are relaxed and ready to take on the Saints.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

Because I am immature and ridiculous, I present this question: Who would you take in a fight: James Bond or John Rambo? The cool, cunning and well-equipped secret agent or the slightly deranged veteran who takes on the world at every turn?

So goes the pop-culture analogy swirling in my head as we hurtle toward Thursday's showdown at Ford Field. There are a number of reasons this matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions is so appealing, and we'll get to them all, but at its core it features teams with polar personalities and styles that can't coexist on a football field.

The Packers' surgical precision is embodied by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who leads the NFL with a 72.3 completion percentage and, these days, limits his on-field emotion to an occasional fist pump. ("The Belt" has recently been reserved for paid advertisements.) The Lions, meanwhile, play every game as if they're avenging past injustices. They are emotional, often angry and not beyond pushing the far boundaries of the rules.

One approach will prevail Thursday over the other. The Lions will either overwhelm the Packers with energy, trying to win their first Thanksgiving Day game in seven years, or the Packers will slice through that emotion with professional calculation.

"We'll be going to a hornet's nest," Packers defensive lineman B.J. Raji said. "We're the defending champions, and those guys are at home with a chance to knock us off in front of a national television audience. They're probably going to be jacked up. They beat us last year [at Ford Field] and they almost beat us at home. They believe they can win. It's our job to convince them they can't."

The Lions are doing their best this week to limit the fuel they add to an already-charged situation. This game has been sold out for months, and last week the Lions sold an additional 1,500 standing-room tickets in less than 30 minutes. Ford Field will be as frenzied as it was for the return of "Monday Night Football" last month, an atmosphere that contributed to nine false-start penalties by the Chicago Bears.

Receiver Nate Burleson couldn't resist taking a subtle shot at Rodgers' currently-running State Farm commercial, saying he might perform the "discount double check when I score just to give him a shout out." But for the most part, the Lions understand the diminished utility in antagonizing a team as steely as the Packers.

"If you start thinking about all the things that go into this game," Burleson told reporters in Detroit, "you get away from what really matters -- getting the win. We just want to win the game."

Yes, this is one game where the Lions won't need to emit guttural roars to be noticed. As the Packers have plowed through the season, many of us have looked ahead and thought the Lions could present their first true matchup problem.

As the charts show, the Lions' strengths -- on paper, at least -- match up favorably against the Packers.


The Lions have a top-five pass defense no matter what category you consider, one that at least gives them a chance to slow down Rodgers if their defensive line provides its usual pressure and physicality. And the success of their own passing game puts them in position to exploit the Packers' most obvious vulnerability.

Generally speaking, the Lions have the capacity to match the Packers score for score, along with a defense that stands as good of a chance as any to steal a few possessions. These are two of the top three scoring offenses in the NFL, another reason this game has such national appeal.

In the end, however, I really think this game will come down to poise. The Packers are at their best when operating in a cocoon, keeping their opponents at a safe distance while they speed down the highway in Q's latest contraption. The Lions get an edge on opponents by knocking them out of that comfort zone, blowing them up with energy and anger.

That's why Packers running back Ryan Grant told reporters that this game "is about us." The Lions' extracurriculars have "nothing to do with us," Grant added.

"We have to take care of our business on our end," he said. "Every week, we look … to maintain our discipline. It has nothing to do with what the other man does. We know what we need to do. The challenge isn't necessarily dealing with their discipline."

Can the Packers maintain their poise? Or will the Lions get under their skin just enough to slide those matchups in their favor? I'll be in the front row with popcorn and 3-D glasses to find out.

A few thoughts on a wild game at Ford Field:

What it means: Down 24-7 in the second quarter, the Detroit Lions outscored the Carolina Panthers 42-11 the rest of the way to clinch their seventh victory of the season and keep pace with the Chicago Bears in the NFC wild-card picture. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Lions are the first team in NFL history to overcome 17-plus point deficits to win three games in the same season. The others were in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings (20-0) and Week 4 at the Dallas Cowboys (27-3). No lead is safe against this team.

Welcome back Mr. Smith: Raise your hand if you saw this kind of game coming from tailback Kevin Smith, who re-signed with the team only two weeks ago. Smith scored three of the Lions touchdowns, accounting for 201 combined yards rushing and receiving. The only Lions player in the past 50 years to average more than Smith's 8.8 yards per carry Sunday is Hall of Famer Barry Sanders. Most of us had given up on the Lions getting game-changing production from their backfield in any sense, much less as a runner. The Lions thought so little of Smith that they declined to bring him to training camp. Could he be their answer? What a story that would be. Said Lions coach Jim Schwartz: "There are a lot of great stories in the NFL and I’m sure there are a lot of storylines today, but I think the NFL would be hard-pressed to find a better story than Kevin Smith."

StaffordWatch: Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw two first-quarter interceptions, putting him in a similar situation as last Sunday against the Bears: In a pass-only catch-up mode while hampered by a fractured right index finger. But I thought Stafford got it together on the possession after the Panthers took their 17-point lead. He hit receiver Nate Burleson for a 15-yard pass on third-and-12, and ultimately completed the final six passes of a 12-play drive that made clear the Lions weren't going away. Stafford completed 77.8 percent of his passes and followed those two interceptions with five touchdown passes. That's what a quarterback does when he wants to take his team to the playoffs.

SuhWatch: Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh finished with two tackles, but don't let the box score fool you. He had a whale of a second half, forcing one of Cam Newton's four interceptions with a strong inside rush. I'm not sure if Suh has impacted a game more this season than he did Sunday.

What's next: The Lions will host the Green Bay Packers in their annual Thanksgiving Day game, beginning a stretch that will include two games against the Packers and one against the New Orleans Saints. That schedule is what made Sunday's victory so crucial to the Lions' playoff chances.

CHICAGO -- This is what we want from our NFC North football, isn't it? We want two hard-hitting teams bashing heads, before the whistle and after, for 60 minutes. We love it when weather conditions affect the game. We live for all-out brawls that reduce our heroes to raw gladiators.

We got all of that Sunday at Soldier Field, a confluence of conditions that brought out the best in one team and the worst in another. The Chicago Bears played their best game of the season, and the Detroit Lions their worst, in a 37-13 victory. The Bears' decisive performance left the NFL world little choice but to embrace their playoff viability, while the Lions' meltdown at least gives us reason to question their short-term future.

"It wasn't clean and it wasn't quiet," Bears quarterback Jay Cutler said. "I know that."

Indeed, the Bears scored twice on defense and once on special teams, accounting for more than half of their point total on a day when wind gusts approached 40 miles per hour. Their offense totaled only 216 yards and 12 first downs but made only one damaging mistake, a second-quarter fumble on an exchange between Cutler and tailback Matt Forte.

In other words, they played quintessential Bears football in a game that brought them even with the Lions at 6-3.

On the other hand, the Lions let the physical nature of the game get to them. Fumbles by Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson scuttled their first two drives and led to an early deficit. Quarterback Matthew Stafford followed with four interceptions, doubling his season total; Stafford attributed the performance more to wind and not a fractured right index finger. The Lions committed only four penalties, but three were personal fouls, and they were fortuante to escape penalty when Stafford instigated a fourth-quarter brawl.

Lions coach Jim Schwartz accurately attributed the loss to "turnovers and the returns for touchdowns" and said "it had nothing to do with physical play." He added: "I'll match our guys up against their guys anytime. That is a tough, physical team. We are a tough, physical team, but this game turned out the way it did because of turnovers and the return game. No other reason."

Well, yes and no. I think we can agree that the hard-hitting Lions are as physical as any team in the league. But what counts is how you perform in that context. The Lions couldn't hold on to either the ball or their heads amid that environment.

Johnson fumbled when Bears defensive end Julius Peppers clocked him in the first quarter. On the next possession, Burleson couldn't hold on when cornerback Tim Jennings raked his arms.

More examples: Bears cornerback Charles Tillman knocked the ball lose from Johnson on a near-touchdown in the second quarter, then pushed through him in the third quarter for an interception he returned for a touchdown.

"We played the way we wanted to play," linebacker Brian Urlacher said. "I don't think you're going to lose too many games playing like that on defense. That's as dominant as I've been around since I've been here, I think. They had [393] yards, whatever, they were late in the game."

The Lions were equally as physical, but it didn't induce any game-breaking plays. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh somehow ended up with Cutler's helmet in his hands after one run in the second quarter. Rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley was called for unecessary roughness against Cutler in the fourth quarter, but Cutler didn't let the pressure prompt future mistakes.

We can't say the same about Stafford, who lost his temper in the fourth quarter while Jennings returned the final interception. As Jennings ran out of bounds, Stafford disengaged himself from Bears cornerback D.J. Moore by flipping him to ground. Moore jumped off the ground and dove for Stafford before players from both teams jumped in.

"Just trying to get him off of me best I knew how," Stafford said. "I guess he didn't like the way I did it. And he wanted to ask me about it."

Asked if he liked the way he did it, Stafford smiled and said, "Yup."

Stafford wasn't penalized, but Moore was ejected from the game. In the coming days, we might hear about fines and possible suspensions for leaving the bench. Moore admitted he was wrong but said Stafford grabbed him by the helmet and implied officials didn't eject Stafford "because he's a little more important for the league."

Lions players were livid after seeing an opponent jump on their quarterback and were willing to overlook Stafford's role in the fracas. "That [expletive] is not going to fly around here," center Dominic Raiola said. "They can say all they want. They can say, 'Look at the scoreboard, blah blah blah.' We're not going to back down from anybody, no matter when it is, where it is, the game is lost on the field. All the extra [expletive], we're not going to put up with."

Burleson said that when an opponent "is out there having fun, that really pisses us off."

Overall, that's great. That means winning and losing is important to the Lions, something you couldn't always say about their teams in recent years.

I've felt for months that the Lions are a team capable of earning a playoff spot, and I haven't wavered even as they've hit a midseason rough spot that reached three losses in four games Sunday. In reality, those defeats have come to three good teams: the Bears (6-3), the San Francisco 49ers (8-1) and Atlanta Falcons (5-4).

In my mind, there is still every reason to include the Lions in the playoff chase. Had the season ended Sunday, they would have joined the Bears as an NFC wild-card team. But to remain in that position for seven more weeks, the Lions need to take a page from the Bears' performance Sunday.

It's not enough just to be physical. Execution amid brutality is what wins November and December games in the NFC North. The Lions managed half of that formula Sunday. The Bears are now 6-3 because they've mastered it.

As you know, we've been running a MegatronWatch for much of 2011 to track Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson's assault on the NFL record for touchdown receptions in a season. Johnson will need 12 more in the second half of the season to tie, and 13 to break, the record of 23 set by Randy Moss in 2007.

Moss caught 12 in the final eight games of that season, and John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information looked into just how he did it. Quite simply, the New England Patriots gave him an overwhelming opportunity as they pursued a 16-0 regular-season record.

The Patriots targeted Moss on 95 passes, including 25 in the end zone, over that final eight-game stretch. For comparison, the Lions targeted Johnson 74 times, including 10 in the end zone, during the first half of 2011.

Typically, NFL passing games tend to be less proficient as the weather turns in November and December. That means Johnson will need to be more efficient than Moss to approach the record, unless the Lions significantly change their target structure. Already, they are throwing a hefty 9.25 passes per game in his direction.

The chart shows how quarterback Matthew Stafford has split his throws among the Lions' top five pass-catchers this season. (In the video at the bottom of this post, or soon to be, I tried my best to quell your concerns about receiver Nate Burleson's quiet first half.) The Lions' stable of receivers and pass-catchers provides Stafford with credible alternatives to forcing the ball Johnson's way, as evidenced by his four interceptions in 299 attempts.

The Lions' second half will open Sunday against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, and it's worth noting the Bears did a decent job for most of their Week 5 game against Johnson. Locking against cornerback Charles Tillman for a good portion of the game, Johnson had six passes thrown his way. Johnson caught five of them, and the Lions capitalized on a rare occasion when the Bears tried to cover him with two safeties -- a play that ended in a 73-yard touchdown.

Skill and good fortune are necessary ingredients for raising the bar on history. So is opportunity, and in the end, that's what could determine whether Johnson has a great season or a record-breaking one.