NFL Nation: New England Patriots
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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 49ers in 2012:
Dream scenario (14-2): The 49ers pick up where they left off last season. They continue to force turnovers and protect the football while dictating field position with their dominant special teams. This time, however, the offense has more firepower.
Receiver Michael Crabtree backs up coach Jim Harbaugh's comments suggesting Crabtree has all-time great hands. A rejuvenated Randy Moss strikes fear into secondaries. Quarterback Alex Smith, armed with sufficient weapons, strikes for explosive plays more frequently. The offensive line, stabilized by Alex Boone's emergence as a top young guard, sustains drives on third down and finishes them in the red zone.
Rookie receiver A.J. Jenkins hits stride in December as the 49ers clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs heading into Week 17. Colin Kaepernick throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the regular-season finale as San Francisco eliminates division-rival Arizona from playoff contention. Sufficiently rested, the 49ers score a dominating victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, delivering San Francisco its first Super Bowl title since the 1994 season.
Nightmare scenario (6-10): The odds catch up to Smith when the Detroit Lions' Ndamukong Suh delivers a controversial hit at the knees in Week 2. Kaepernick isn't ready, Moss loses interest and the offense can't score enough points. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has the Denver Broncos looking like contenders.
The 49ers realize they were fortunate to have Smith start 18 games the previous season despite taking 51 sacks. They realize how risky it was going into the season without a proven right guard. How hard would it have been to pay one of the veteran options the team considered in free agency? That's a question reporters keep asking, even though none of them said much before the season. The question stings now that Smith is done for the season and Kaepernick is running for his life.
Tough defense and special teams keep the 49ers reasonably competitive. The coaching staff does its best to stabilize the situation. The 49ers compete and steal victories from other teams with quarterback issues. In the end, however, they become the latest team to suffer a hard fall after posting a glittering record the previous season. Rock bottom arrives when Sando notes, again, that the 13 teams finishing 13-3 from 2004 to 2010 averaged 8.3 victories the following season.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 49ers in 2012:
Dream scenario (14-2): The 49ers pick up where they left off last season. They continue to force turnovers and protect the football while dictating field position with their dominant special teams. This time, however, the offense has more firepower.
Receiver Michael Crabtree backs up coach Jim Harbaugh's comments suggesting Crabtree has all-time great hands. A rejuvenated Randy Moss strikes fear into secondaries. Quarterback Alex Smith, armed with sufficient weapons, strikes for explosive plays more frequently. The offensive line, stabilized by Alex Boone's emergence as a top young guard, sustains drives on third down and finishes them in the red zone.
Rookie receiver A.J. Jenkins hits stride in December as the 49ers clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs heading into Week 17. Colin Kaepernick throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the regular-season finale as San Francisco eliminates division-rival Arizona from playoff contention. Sufficiently rested, the 49ers score a dominating victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, delivering San Francisco its first Super Bowl title since the 1994 season.
Nightmare scenario (6-10): The odds catch up to Smith when the Detroit Lions' Ndamukong Suh delivers a controversial hit at the knees in Week 2. Kaepernick isn't ready, Moss loses interest and the offense can't score enough points. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has the Denver Broncos looking like contenders.
The 49ers realize they were fortunate to have Smith start 18 games the previous season despite taking 51 sacks. They realize how risky it was going into the season without a proven right guard. How hard would it have been to pay one of the veteran options the team considered in free agency? That's a question reporters keep asking, even though none of them said much before the season. The question stings now that Smith is done for the season and Kaepernick is running for his life.
Tough defense and special teams keep the 49ers reasonably competitive. The coaching staff does its best to stabilize the situation. The 49ers compete and steal victories from other teams with quarterback issues. In the end, however, they become the latest team to suffer a hard fall after posting a glittering record the previous season. Rock bottom arrives when Sando notes, again, that the 13 teams finishing 13-3 from 2004 to 2010 averaged 8.3 victories the following season.
» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.
Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.
Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Buffalo Bills in 2012.
Dream scenario (11-5): It would be a dream for Bills fans to see their team back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. The last time we saw Buffalo make the postseason, the Bills were the victim of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. It has been a long line of disappointments and underachieving since that historic play. (Many Bills fans still contend that was a forward pass, by the way.) This year’s team looks poised to break the streak. This is the best team, on paper, that Buffalo has had in a long time. The offense will be dangerous if quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick improves his consistency in the passing game and Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and the running game stay consistent. Buffalo also made improvements to the defense, including drafting corner Stephon Gilmore in the first round and adding stud defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Chances are, everything won’t fall into place for Buffalo. But this is a sleeper team that does have a chance to make a jump and contend for the playoffs.
Nightmare scenario (5-11): Despite all the additions, there is no guarantee the Bills and their coaching staff can bring it all together in one year. What if Fitzpatrick continues to play like the second half of 2011 and is not the long-term solution? What if the defense struggles to make the transition to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt? What if big injuries again decimate this team? A lot can go wrong for the Bills, especially in a division where the reigning AFC champion New England Patriots are expected to dominate. The Bills are trying to catch up and cannot afford to make many mistakes in the AFC East. They were 1-5 against division foes last year. Bills head coach Chan Gailey is only 10-22 in his first two years in Buffalo. He has more talent than he has ever had with the Bills. There are no excuses for Gailey this year. It’s still somewhat of a mystery whether Gailey can coach. But we will find out in 2012.
» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.
Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.
Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots in 2012.
Dream scenario (15-1): The Patriots take advantage of the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL on their way to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Barring injury, it's hard not to see New England winning at least 11 or 12 games this year. Note the dream scenario is 15-1, not 16-0. The pressure of going into the playoffs undefeated is immense. New England found out the hard way after the 2007 season, when they came up just short in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. It would be easier for New England to get that loss out of the way early so the pressure of a perfect season won't be on their shoulders late in the year. The AFC East looks ripe for the Patriots once again. They went 5-1 against the division in 2011, which is key to winning the AFC East and vying for home-field advantage in the AFC.
Nightmare scenario (9-7): Is 9-7 really a nightmare? Not for most teams. But it's Super Bowl or bust for New England, and a nine-win season with the chance to miss the playoffs is probably the worst this team could do considering its talent and easy schedule. Significant injuries are the only thing I can see derailing the Patriots from another playoff run. Quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2008 and New England still finished 11-5. But this is a different team, especially on defense. A significant injury to Brady, especially early in the season, would be a nightmare and make the Patriots an ordinary team again. I'm not convinced this team is good enough, especially defensively, to hold up like it did a few years ago without its future Hall of Fame quarterback. Also, who knows if Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer is good enough to lead the charge? Maybe in time, but the Patriots don't want to find out next season.
Patriots will struggle in post-Tom Brady era
May, 23, 2012
May 23
11:21
AM ET
By
James Walker | ESPN.com
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireWithout Tom Brady under center, the New England Patriots become just an ordinary team.But all of that comes to an end when Brady retires.
Brady, who turns 35 in August, says he wants to play in New England until he's 40. That is great news for the Patriots, because they will struggle the second the future Hall of Famer hangs it up.
Things that have become foreign to New England the past dozen years will become routine again. New England will have down years and miss the playoffs -- just like everybody else. The Patriots won't survive various injuries -- just like everybody else. The Patriots also will run through a few quarterbacks, too -- just like everybody else.
On Wednesday, ESPN.com examined potentially dominant teams in 2015
Here are four reasons New England will struggle in the post-Brady era:
No. 1: Patriots won't immediately find Brady's replacement
Brady's story is once in a generation. He's a former sixth-round pick who slipped through the cracks to become one of the top five quarterbacks of all time. Brady had the drive and “it" factor to become the greatest player in franchise history. Brady often is compared to Joe Montana, because they share a similar story about 20 years apart.
The chances of New England finding another Brady anytime soon are slim.
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Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?
Stew Milne/US PresswireWill Ryan Mallett be ready to take over for Tom Brady when the future Hall of Famer is ready to hang it up?What about Brian Hoyer? The undrafted quarterback has shown small flashes but certainly not enough to warrant Pro Bowl status. The drop-off going from Brady to 99 percent of other quarterbacks will be steep.
Even if Mallett or Hoyer turn out to be viable starting quarterbacks, neither will be nearly as good as Brady. Is Mallett or Hoyer a future Hall of Famer? Probably not. Will either quarterback perennially make the Pro Bowl? Not likely.
New England has been able to overcome poor defense, injuries and at times average receivers to still be competitive. Brady was great enough to carry the Patriots through various weaknesses. That no longer will be a luxury in New England. It will be much harder to get everything right with other areas of the team, especially if the quarterback position is in flux.
No. 2: The offense is old
Brady is turning 35 in August. No. 1 receiver Wes Welker is 31. Starting receiver Brandon Lloyd is 30. Longtime left tackle Matt Light just retired this offseason. Guard Brian Waters may follow, if not this year then soon after.
When Brady is gone, it's likely all of these important offensive pieces will be gone as well. A Patriot offense without Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Light, Waters, etc. means New England is virtually starting over in a few years.
The Patriots still have a couple young stars in tight end Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. But consider this: One tight end probably will bolt in free agency. Both Gronkowski and Hernandez -- two of the top five players at their position -- have rookie contracts set to expire in two years. Both will be looking for huge paydays, and New England can't do that with two players at the same position.
New England most likely will throw the money truck at Gronkowski, perhaps making him the highest-paid tight end, and let Hernandez walk. Brady also will be 37 and possibly retired or on his last legs by the time both tight ends will look for extensions. Returning to New England's offense long-term won't be as attractive two years from now for a pending free agent like Hernandez.
No. 3: Sun is setting on Belichick
Belichick just turned 60 years old. How much longer will Belichick coach the Patriots?
Belichick has coached in the NFL in some capacity for 37 years. He is approaching his fourth decade in the league.
Even head coaches have a shelf life. Belichick currently is the NFL's fourth-oldest head coach behind Tom Coughlin (65) of the New York Giants, Romeo Crennel (64) of the Kansas City Chiefs and, by a few months, Chan Gailey (60) of the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps we are also witnessing the last few years of Belichick roaming the sidelines.
A good debate topic in New England would be who contributed more to the Patriots' dynasty the past dozen years: Brady or Belichick? Both are Hall of Famers. But in my opinion, Brady's development and dominance at quarterback is a stronger factor in New England's success. Belichick would not have won all those games, division titles and championships in New England with shoddy quarterback play. Brady remained dominant and kept the team afloat, even when Belichick struggled coaching the defense, which is Belichick's specialty.
No. 4: The rest of the AFC East will catch up
I often call the AFC East the "Brady and Belichick division." They're the great equalizers who keep the Patriots on top.
But without Brady in a few years, and perhaps Belichick, all four teams are back to an even playing field. Who will be the top quarterback in the AFC East when Brady retires? Ryan Tannehill? Mark Sanchez? Tim Tebow? Someone else?
Maybe all four teams will have average quarterback play. That means the Patriots, New York Jets, Bills and Miami Dolphins must rely on other areas to be successful and win the division.
Can the Patriots rely on their defense to lead the way? Not right now. Not even close. New England is in no position to overcome poor quarterback play, and that probably won't change overnight.
I expect Brady to play at least two more years (2012 and 2013) at an elite level. He may opt to play beyond that. But after age 37, there's no guarantee Brady can continue to take the physical pounding and play at such a high level that we have become accustomed to. We've already seen nagging injuries bother Brady more than ever over the past couple of seasons.
Brady is a special talent the organization will probably never see again. So enjoy the success now, Patriots fans. New England will come back to earth and be an ordinary team again in 3-5 years.
Some New England Patriots observers are still scratching their heads regarding defensive back Devin McCourty's sophomore slump. He went from a Pro Bowl corner in his rookie year to a player who couldn't consistently cover receivers in 2011.
McCourty provided some answers this week. He told the Boston Herald he played with a separated right shoulder since Week 10 of the regular season. McCourty returned after two games, but it appears he was more injured than he was letting on.
McCourty struggled mightily down the stretch for New England's 31st-rated defense. He was eventually moved to safety during the Patriots' playoff run. McCourty didn't require offseason surgery but says he's still not 100 percent.
The Patriots hope McCourty just suffered a down year. They need cover corners, and McCourty proved he can make plays when he had seven interceptions and two forced fumbles as a rookie.
Terrell Owens is campaigning to get back into the NFL, and his current targets are his first team and the team in which his previous quarterback plays for.
OwensOwens went on “The Drive” on 95.7 The Game in San Francisco, in an interview that will air Monday, and said he’d like to play for either the 49ers or the Raiders. Let’s get this straight: Owens would like to play for any team. But thus far, there have not been any takers. Owens was out of football in 2011, and he turns 39 in December.
Yes, he’s a hard sell.
Yet, he is pushing for a chance to reunite with quarterback Carson Palmer. They played in Cincinnati together in 2010, and Owens worked out with Palmer and some Oakland receivers this offseason.
“If I had to prefer a team, I’d probably want to end where I started, but other than that, that’s not possible, but at the same time, anything can happen. That being said, there’s really only one team left in the Bay Area who I haven’t played for, that really, at this point in time is a viable option, and that’s the Oakland Raiders,” Owens said, “Given the opportunity, if that’s on their radar for me to come in and help them win some ball games, and ultimately help them try to win a championship, then I’ll take that challenge on.
"I definitely feel I have a lot of football left in me. I think Carson knows that. The guys that saw me running around, those receivers, they saw me first hand, so it’s just a matter of someone giving me an opportunity to make that happen. If that’s the case with the Raiders, I’ll assess that when the time comes.”
The reality is, it doesn’t matter if Owens is interested in playing for the Raiders. There are a lot of people in the world who would like to play for the Raiders. What matters is what Oakland’s brass wants. Thus far, it appears Oakland is satisfied with its young core of receivers. As I have expressed often, I think it is the right call.
Let’s see what fifth-round pick Juron Criner can do. Taking away repetitions from him in favor of a rusty 38-year-old with a history of being a locker-room distraction doesn’t make any sense.
In other AFC West news:
Tight end Dallas Clark reportedly visited the Patriots this week. He recently visited the Chiefs.
In an Insider piece,
Mel Kiper says he thinks Kansas City linebacker Justin Houston will build upon his strong rookie season.
Denver signed fifth-round pick Malik Jackson. He is the team’s second draft pick to sign.

Yes, he’s a hard sell.
Yet, he is pushing for a chance to reunite with quarterback Carson Palmer. They played in Cincinnati together in 2010, and Owens worked out with Palmer and some Oakland receivers this offseason.
“If I had to prefer a team, I’d probably want to end where I started, but other than that, that’s not possible, but at the same time, anything can happen. That being said, there’s really only one team left in the Bay Area who I haven’t played for, that really, at this point in time is a viable option, and that’s the Oakland Raiders,” Owens said, “Given the opportunity, if that’s on their radar for me to come in and help them win some ball games, and ultimately help them try to win a championship, then I’ll take that challenge on.
"I definitely feel I have a lot of football left in me. I think Carson knows that. The guys that saw me running around, those receivers, they saw me first hand, so it’s just a matter of someone giving me an opportunity to make that happen. If that’s the case with the Raiders, I’ll assess that when the time comes.”
The reality is, it doesn’t matter if Owens is interested in playing for the Raiders. There are a lot of people in the world who would like to play for the Raiders. What matters is what Oakland’s brass wants. Thus far, it appears Oakland is satisfied with its young core of receivers. As I have expressed often, I think it is the right call.
Let’s see what fifth-round pick Juron Criner can do. Taking away repetitions from him in favor of a rusty 38-year-old with a history of being a locker-room distraction doesn’t make any sense.
In other AFC West news:
Tight end Dallas Clark reportedly visited the Patriots this week. He recently visited the Chiefs.
In an Insider piece,
Denver signed fifth-round pick Malik Jackson. He is the team’s second draft pick to sign.
» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.
Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.
Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East to Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.
Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.
It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, where it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.
Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.
But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best Moore can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Dolphins and why.
Some starting NFL quarterbacks have one challenger breathing down their neck waiting to take their job. But very few incumbents have two quarterbacks gunning for them. That is the situation Matt Moore of the Miami Dolphins is in.
Moore is coming off a career year, going 6-3 in his last nine starts for Miami in 2011. He was the second most consistent quarterback in the AFC East to Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. However, that wasn't nearly enough for Moore to enter this season as Miami's unquestioned starter. He has to compete with veteran David Garrard in training camp.
Even if Moore fends off Garrard in the short term, he would still have to fight off Dolphins first-round pick Ryan Tannehill in the long term. Tannehill is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. How quickly Tannehill will take over depends on the rookie's learning curve and Moore's ability to win games.
It's a high-pressure situation for Moore, where it appears nothing will be good enough in Miami. Moore is entering the final year of his contract, and even if he puts up big numbers, Tannehill is expected to take his job for good in 2013.
Moore proved last season that he can handle pressure. He pulled the 0-7 Dolphins out of the gutter by infusing new energy. Miami played solid football in the second half of the season.
But this is a situation Moore won't survive with the Dolphins. The best Moore can hope for is to beat out Garrard and get enough playing time this year to show another team he can be a long-term starter.
Wes Welker signs his franchise tender, Suzy and Adam discuss which player-team contract issue will present the biggest problem, and Jeff Fisher wants a clean slate for Sam Bradford.
Chad Ochocinco is known to be different. When everyone goes right, Ochocinco usually goes far to the left.
OchocincoThat is why it's no surprise that Ochocinco showed his sincere and heartfelt support for NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on Friday. The New England Patriots receiver is one of the few players -- at least publicly -- who backs Goodell 100 percent after a rough year that included a lengthy lockout, increased fines, the bounty scandal and high-profile deaths that may be linked to football-related injuries.
The NFL is booming. But this is an unprecedented time of dissension between current and former players and the league office. The league is facing various lawsuits. Goodell also is tweaking the game -- some believe too much -- in the name of safety. Many players disagree with his methods or motives, or both.
Ochocinco addresses many of those issues in his letter to Goodell, whom Ochocinco refers to as a father figure.
"You are in one big [expletive] catch-22 and quite frankly, I am not sure there is any solution," Ochocinco wrote. "One thing I think can help is killing the NFL PR machine."
Goodell is stern, corporate and to the point. Ochocinco is boisterous and playful. Yet the two always got along, despite several fines Ochocinco has received over the years.
Do not expect many players to follow Ochocinco and write emotional letters in support of Goodell. Right or wrong, Ochocinco is on an island when it comes to player support of Goodell.
Perhaps the end of Ochocinco's letter was most pertinent for Patriots fans. According to Ochocinco, he will have a bounce-back year and plans to do a lot of touchdown celebrations in 2012. Ochocinco scored just one touchdown all last year.

The NFL is booming. But this is an unprecedented time of dissension between current and former players and the league office. The league is facing various lawsuits. Goodell also is tweaking the game -- some believe too much -- in the name of safety. Many players disagree with his methods or motives, or both.
Ochocinco addresses many of those issues in his letter to Goodell, whom Ochocinco refers to as a father figure.
"You are in one big [expletive] catch-22 and quite frankly, I am not sure there is any solution," Ochocinco wrote. "One thing I think can help is killing the NFL PR machine."
Goodell is stern, corporate and to the point. Ochocinco is boisterous and playful. Yet the two always got along, despite several fines Ochocinco has received over the years.
Do not expect many players to follow Ochocinco and write emotional letters in support of Goodell. Right or wrong, Ochocinco is on an island when it comes to player support of Goodell.
Perhaps the end of Ochocinco's letter was most pertinent for Patriots fans. According to Ochocinco, he will have a bounce-back year and plans to do a lot of touchdown celebrations in 2012. Ochocinco scored just one touchdown all last year.
Stephen J. Cohen/WireImagePatriots stars Tom Brady, left, and Wes Welker were all smiles at the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. There is one thing for certain about the Patriots: You do not fight the machine. Welker is facing an uphill battle he cannot win. Many have tried before him and failed. Welker is not the exception.
Welker has yet to sign his franchise tender and hasn't decided how long he's going to protest New England's one-year, $9.5 million offer. The potential distraction has been held to a minimum thus far. But it would only grow stronger if Welker continues to skip New England's offseason program.
The Patriots' mandatory minicamp is scheduled for June 12. The best advice is for Welker to have his mind made up by that time. Missing New England's current voluntary program is not a big thing. But if Welker also chooses to skip the Patriots' three-day veteran minicamp, that is when he's hurting the team in the eyes of the coaching staff.
At that point the gloves may come off with the Patriots -- and Welker doesn't want that.
New England is emotionless and shrewd in negotiations. Just ask three-time Super Bowl winner Willie McGinest, who apparently still carries some level of bitterness about how he was handled by the Patriots at the end of his career. McGinest recently got into a Twitter spat with Welker about his contract situation and delivered this stern message.
"We're all expendable at Patriot Place," McGinest tweeted to Welker.
McGinest is right. NFL players in general are expendable, but even more so in New England.
Welker needs to be more mindful of how Patriots players often are treated like replaceable and interchangeable parts. It happened to McGinest, who spent the final three years of his career with the struggling Cleveland Browns. It happened to Richard Seymour, who was great for eight seasons with the Patriots and suddenly shipped to the Oakland Raiders for a first-round draft pick. The Patriots also traded future Hall of Fame receiver Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings when Moss grew unhappy about his contract.
Welker should know better. No one player is above the team in New England. That is the Patriot Way.
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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesNew England signed four free-agent receivers, but can any of them match Wes Welker's production?
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesNew England signed four free-agent receivers, but can any of them match Wes Welker's production?Welker remains steadfast in shedding the franchise tag for a long-term contract.
"Through my body of work, through the past five years, I think what I've done I've earned a long-term deal,” Welker recently told ESPN Boston Radio. "It's what I am looking for and what I want. Hopefully that's the case and hopefully we come to something where we can make that happen."
Do not think for one second that New England is not prepared for the worst. All the Patriots have done this offseason is sign wide receivers.
New England signed receivers Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Anthony Gonzalez and Donte’ Stallworth in free agency. All are productive veterans who have a chance to add something to the offense. The Patriots also re-signed veteran Deion Branch, backup Matthew Slater, and drafted rookie receiver Jeremy Ebert. Chad Ochocinco and Julian Edelman also remain on the roster.
New England will have an elite passing game next season with or without Welker.
If Welker decides to stage a lengthy holdout, Lloyd and Gaffney would be the starters, while Branch, Gonzalez, Stallworth and Ochocinco compete in training camp for backup roles. New England also runs a lot of two tight-end sets with Pro Bowler Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This is still a very deep and talented group of targets for Brady, who also has a knack for making everyone around him a couple of notches better.
Despite 122 receptions and 1,569 yards last year, the Patriots have found a way to make Welker replaceable. But that's only if Welker chooses to be and doesn't sign his franchise tender.
There's always a chance the Patriots could have a change of heart between now and August. New England has the salary-cap room to extend the 31-year-old Welker and give him the long-term security he's seeking. But it's going to be on the Patriots' terms, not Welker's.
The next move should be the best move by Welker. He should sign the franchise tag, take the $9.5 million and see if anything changes over the next several months at Patriot Place.
Last week ESPN.com's blog team examined big questions around the NFL. I had four in the AFC East that need to be answered that you can check out here.
This week we want to look at four smaller questions about the AFC East. Credit goes to NFC East blogger Dan Graziano for the idea.
Will the Jets improve safety play?
Opponents found the weakness in the New York Jets' defense in the second half of last season. The Jets were exploited time after time over the middle of the field, particularly by opposing tight ends. It was part of the reason the Jets lost their final three games.
Will New York improved its safety play in 2012? The Jets are banking on LaRon Landry to be an upgrade over Jim Leonhard. Landry is a bigger hitter but his coverage skills are questionable. Landry also has injury concerns. Eric Smith struggled last season but will get another year in the starting lineup. Neither safety is known for coverage.
The corners -- Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie -- will do their job. But the Jets could have the same issues over the middle if Smith and Landry don't step up.
Will Shawne Merriman contribute?
Where does Merriman fit with the 2012 Buffalo Bills? It depends mostly on Merriman's health. The outside linebacker is trying to return from back-to-back season-ending Achilles injuries.
Buffalo could use a rejuvenated "Lights Out" coming off the edge this year. The Bills have made it a point to improve their pass rush by investing most of their free-agent dollars on starting defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Merriman has lacked the burst he had earlier in his career. But if he can add several sacks to the pile for the Bills, that would be a huge bonus.
Can the Miami Dolphins find a second pass-rusher?
Speaking of pass-rushers, the Dolphins have one in Cameron Wake, who just received a $49 million extension. But who will take the pressure and double-teams off Wake, which was a major issue last season?
Miami's defense is strong in many areas. The team is expected to use more 4-3 looks under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Wake will be a threat on one edge, but someone needs to step up on the opposite side.
Miami's second-leading player in sacks last year was Jason Taylor, who is retired. Maybe defensive lineman Jared Odrick has the potential to fill the void. The Dolphins also drafted Olivier Vernon in the third round to bolster the pass rush.
Will Patriots' running game produce?
The reigning AFC champion New England Patriots improved their defense. They upgraded their wide receivers and signed several offensive linemen.
But what about New England's running game? The Patriots did little at tailback. They lost leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis and signed Joseph Addai, which is a downgrade. Addai averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season.
The key will be the development of second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. New England hopes one or both players make a big jump in Year 2. The Patriots will be a pass-heavy team. There's no denying that. But the running backs have to make the most of their opportunities when quarterback Tom Brady isn't throwing the ball.
This week we want to look at four smaller questions about the AFC East. Credit goes to NFC East blogger Dan Graziano for the idea.
Will the Jets improve safety play?
Opponents found the weakness in the New York Jets' defense in the second half of last season. The Jets were exploited time after time over the middle of the field, particularly by opposing tight ends. It was part of the reason the Jets lost their final three games.
Will New York improved its safety play in 2012? The Jets are banking on LaRon Landry to be an upgrade over Jim Leonhard. Landry is a bigger hitter but his coverage skills are questionable. Landry also has injury concerns. Eric Smith struggled last season but will get another year in the starting lineup. Neither safety is known for coverage.
The corners -- Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie -- will do their job. But the Jets could have the same issues over the middle if Smith and Landry don't step up.
Will Shawne Merriman contribute?
Where does Merriman fit with the 2012 Buffalo Bills? It depends mostly on Merriman's health. The outside linebacker is trying to return from back-to-back season-ending Achilles injuries.
Buffalo could use a rejuvenated "Lights Out" coming off the edge this year. The Bills have made it a point to improve their pass rush by investing most of their free-agent dollars on starting defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Merriman has lacked the burst he had earlier in his career. But if he can add several sacks to the pile for the Bills, that would be a huge bonus.
Can the Miami Dolphins find a second pass-rusher?
Speaking of pass-rushers, the Dolphins have one in Cameron Wake, who just received a $49 million extension. But who will take the pressure and double-teams off Wake, which was a major issue last season?
Miami's defense is strong in many areas. The team is expected to use more 4-3 looks under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Wake will be a threat on one edge, but someone needs to step up on the opposite side.
Miami's second-leading player in sacks last year was Jason Taylor, who is retired. Maybe defensive lineman Jared Odrick has the potential to fill the void. The Dolphins also drafted Olivier Vernon in the third round to bolster the pass rush.
Will Patriots' running game produce?
The reigning AFC champion New England Patriots improved their defense. They upgraded their wide receivers and signed several offensive linemen.
But what about New England's running game? The Patriots did little at tailback. They lost leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis and signed Joseph Addai, which is a downgrade. Addai averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season.
The key will be the development of second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. New England hopes one or both players make a big jump in Year 2. The Patriots will be a pass-heavy team. There's no denying that. But the running backs have to make the most of their opportunities when quarterback Tom Brady isn't throwing the ball.
I remember interviewing Matt Light in the New England Patriots' locker room this past January after their playoff win over the Denver Broncos. Light was funny, engaging and most importantly calm and at peace, which is not the norm in the playoffs.
Two weeks later, Light was preparing for Super Bowl XLVI against the New York Giants. I spent time at his podium with other media twice in Indianapolis. Again, I was pleasantly surprised how relaxed Light was in such a high-pressure situation. The biggest game of the year was upcoming, and Light was the left tackle responsible for protecting quarterback Tom Brady against the NFL's most formidable defensive line.
Although I didn't know it at the time, it didn't surprise me when reports began to surface that Light would retire after 11 seasons. Light made it official Monday with a formal ceremony in Foxborough, Mass.
Light is a rarity in the NFL, because he knew when to walk away. He's 33, appears in good health and has the rest of his life ahead of him with his family and children. Light also is a three-time Super Bowl champion and three-time Pro Bowler.
"When you know it's your time, you just know," Light said, according to ESPNBoston.com.
Light could have played another year or two at a high level. He was under contract with the Patriots one more season and had a starting job waiting for him. Light wasn't forced to retire, like so many former NFL players. Light chose to retire.
At a time when football injuries, concussions and post-NFL life are being put under the microscope, Light provides a beacon of hope that retired players can walk away from the game they love just fine. The key is for players to be mentally and physically prepared for the next phase, which is not always easy.
I usually don't like to look beyond this season in the NFL because so much can change in a year. But ESPN's resident scout Todd McShay has an interesting mock draft up for 2013.
It's a very early projection. But let's take a look at what McShay has in store for the AFC East:
Miami Dolphins
Pick: No. 8
McShay's pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Thoughts: McShay projects Miami to take one of the best pass-rushers next year. Jones recorded 13.5 sacks as a junior, and expectations are high for Jones in 2012. Pass-rushers are always needed. For example, Dolphins outside linebacker Cameron Wake is entering the final year of his contract and is in the middle of a dispute with the team.
New York Jets
Pick: No. 9
McShay's pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
Thoughts: I'm surprised McShay and Scouts Inc. project New York to have a top-10 pick next year. Are the Jets on their way to another implosion, as the No. 9 overall pick suggests? If that's the case, McShay sees the Jets drafting another pass-rusher in Mingo. This is the norm for Jets coach Rex Ryan. But I think running back and offensive tackle could be more pressing needs by the end of next season.
Buffalo Bills
Pick: No. 17
McShay's pick: Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech
Thoughts: The Bills didn't draft a developmental quarterback this year. So I understand why McShay sees Buffalo taking one in the first round in 2013. Buffalo will need to have someone ready to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick in the next few seasons. But I was surprised that it was Thomas over Oklahoma's Landry Jones, who has more buzz entering this year. But both players will settle it on the field to determine who is the second-best quarterback prospect behind Matt Barkley of USC.
New England Patriots
Pick: No. 32
McShay's pick: Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State
Thoughts: Once again, it's interesting that McShay and Scouts Inc. are vaguely predicting a Super Bowl title for New England. The Patriots have so many receivers already that I'm finding it hard to see New England drafting that position in the first round. The Patriots have few holes. But maybe cornerback or running back could be early targets, depending on how things play out this season.
It's a very early projection. But let's take a look at what McShay has in store for the AFC East:
Miami Dolphins
Pick: No. 8
McShay's pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Thoughts: McShay projects Miami to take one of the best pass-rushers next year. Jones recorded 13.5 sacks as a junior, and expectations are high for Jones in 2012. Pass-rushers are always needed. For example, Dolphins outside linebacker Cameron Wake is entering the final year of his contract and is in the middle of a dispute with the team.
New York Jets
Pick: No. 9
McShay's pick: Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
Thoughts: I'm surprised McShay and Scouts Inc. project New York to have a top-10 pick next year. Are the Jets on their way to another implosion, as the No. 9 overall pick suggests? If that's the case, McShay sees the Jets drafting another pass-rusher in Mingo. This is the norm for Jets coach Rex Ryan. But I think running back and offensive tackle could be more pressing needs by the end of next season.
Buffalo Bills
Pick: No. 17
McShay's pick: Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech
Thoughts: The Bills didn't draft a developmental quarterback this year. So I understand why McShay sees Buffalo taking one in the first round in 2013. Buffalo will need to have someone ready to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick in the next few seasons. But I was surprised that it was Thomas over Oklahoma's Landry Jones, who has more buzz entering this year. But both players will settle it on the field to determine who is the second-best quarterback prospect behind Matt Barkley of USC.
New England Patriots
Pick: No. 32
McShay's pick: Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State
Thoughts: Once again, it's interesting that McShay and Scouts Inc. are vaguely predicting a Super Bowl title for New England. The Patriots have so many receivers already that I'm finding it hard to see New England drafting that position in the first round. The Patriots have few holes. But maybe cornerback or running back could be early targets, depending on how things play out this season.
Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots was the last person to coach future Hall of Fame linebacker Junior Seau. Belichick signed Seau at the tail end of his career and was Seau's coach for his final four seasons in the NFL.
Seau died Wednesday at the age of 43. Belichick released a statement on Seau Thursday:
Seau died Wednesday at the age of 43. Belichick released a statement on Seau Thursday:
"A day later, it is still hard to believe. Of all the players I have coached, nobody was more full of energy and vitality than Junior Seau. He respected and inspired every single person he came in contact with -- players, coaches and support staff. His defied the odds by playing two decades in the NFL at a level and with a youthful spirit rarely seen but appreciated by everyone. Junior will always be remembered as a intense Hall of Fame player from the old school. He was a charismatic icon. At the same time, as a human being he was as caring, warm and lovable as they come. That’s what I will miss most of all. It was a privilege to have coached Junior Seau. My condolences to his family."

