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DAVIE, Fla. -- There is no bigger boom-or-bust prospect in the 2012 draft than former Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Is he the next prolific NFL quarterback, or simply a product of pre-draft hype that led to becoming a top-10 pick?

Opinions vary. But the Miami Dolphins believe they have the answers to the Tannehill question. Miami has more inside knowledge on Tannehill than any other team and drafted its quarterback of the future with the No. 8 overall pick Thursday night.

Tannehill will rejoin Dolphins offensive coordinator and former Aggies coach Mike Sherman, who says Tannehill is a star in the making. There are many critics who believe Tannehill is fool's gold, but the Dolphins are very confident they made the right choice.

"This was an all-in decision," Dolphins general manager Jeff Ireland said firmly. "From the football side, our scouts, our coaches ... we all felt very, very good about it."

Ireland hit the nail on the head. The Dolphins are betting the foreseeable future of the franchise on Tannehill -- for better or for worse.

If Tannehill develops into an upper-echelon quarterback, the Dolphins finally have the biggest piece to change their misfortunes. If Tannehill is a bust, it will set Miami back another three or four years.

"We're excited and thrilled," Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said of their first-round pick. "I've always said you need to be strong at the quarterback position, and now that's one of the strengths of this team. So I couldn't be happier."

The pick doesn't come without pressure. It's been 29 years since the Dolphins drafted a quarterback in the first round: Dan Marino in 1983. Those are some big shoes to fill.

It's also no coincidence Miami hasn't had a legitimate, franchise quarterback since Marino retired in 2000. The list of mediocre starting quarterbacks since included Cleo Lemon, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley, John Beck and most recently Chad Henne. Tannehill will try to avoid being the next name on this infamous list.

Tannehill had only 19 career starts in college. There is a learning curve with Tannehill that isn't as steep for other top quarterback prospects like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, who went No. 1 and No. 2 to the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins, respectively.

The good news is Tannehill is not expected to play in 2012. Barring unexpected injuries to Miami veteran quarterbacks Matt Moore and David Garrard, Tannehill probably will hold a clipboard next season. This will provide Tannehill ample time to learn the NFL game.

Dolphins rookie head coach and former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin kept Aaron Rodgers on the bench for several years before he became a starter and it worked out fine. But that wasn’t what Tannehill wanted to hear on draft day.

"I want to compete, that's just the competitor in me," Tannehill said in a conference call with the South Florida media. "Obviously with competition comes learning. It doesn't have to be a hostile competition. It's just competing."

Ireland said he’s going to leave Tannehill's playing time next season up to the coaching staff. But chances are, we won't know much about Tannehill until 2013. The boom-or-bust talk will have to wait for at least a year.

But Tannehill's ceiling is high if things go right in Miami. It also doesn't hurt that the quarterback competition in the AFC East is not very stout. It's pretty much Tom Brady, and then there's everyone else.

Tannehill has the physical ability to potentially rise above the struggling quarterback pile in the division that includes Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow. If Tannehill becomes the second-best quarterback in the AFC East over the next two or three years, that's a huge advantage for the rebuilding Dolphins.

Remember this day, Dolphins fans. Tannehill is the draft pick that will either change Miami's misfortunes or extend the team's misery for several more years. The Tannehill mystery won't be solved overnight, but Miami feels it found the piece to eventually build this struggling franchise into a winner.

"I don't know if this energizes the fan base. What energizes the fan base is winning," Ross said. "I'm looking to field a winning team, because energizing a fan base only lasts a very short period of time.

"We're talking about winning in the long haul."

"Here's an opening statement you can take to the bank: The New England Patriots will win the AFC East." -- AFC East blog, Nov. 11, 2011

Remember six weeks ago when I guaranteed the Patriots will win the AFC East? The statement sparked plenty of doubt and harsh criticism. Simply scan through the comments section of that blog and see for yourself.

Most readers thought this was the year the New York Jets would capture the division. Some even thought the Buffalo Bills had a shot. Well, we've seen how that turned out.

Now it's time to take it a step further. Here is another prediction you can take to the bank: The Patriots (11-3) will represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI.

Sorry Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Broncos and Jets fans. This is the year New England runs through the AFC playoffs.

Here are four reasons why you will see the Patriots in Indianapolis in February:

Reason No. 1: Tom Brady

When it comes to quarterbacking in the AFC, there's Brady and there's everyone else. Brady is the biggest trump card New England has. No team in the conference can match it.

Here are potential quarterbacks Brady could face in the playoffs: T.J. Yates, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco and an injured and gimpy Ben Roethlisberger.

Brady is 3-0 against Sanchez and Tebow this season by a combined score of 108-60. We've already seen how those scenarios play out. Those three games against the Jets and Broncos weren't close.

Houston's Yates is a rookie fifth-round draft pick and former third-string quarterback. Do you think Yates can out-duel Brady in Yates' first postseason? Flacco of Baltimore has been inconsistent this year and is notorious for not playing well in playoff games.

The Steelers' Roethlisberger is Brady's biggest competition at quarterback. Pittsburgh is the only AFC playoff team to beat New England this season. But Roethlisberger isn't the same player after suffering a high-ankle sprain. He had three interceptions and a fumble in Monday's loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Roethlisberger at 50 percent cannot beat Brady clicking on all cylinders. High-ankle sprains are serious injuries that take at least a month (if not more) to heal. It could be even longer for Roethlisberger if he continues to play on it leading up to the postseason.

The two playoff quarterbacks with the best chance of out-dueling Brady in the playoffs are Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints and Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers. But both are in the NFC and have to deal with each other first. New England will only have to worry about one of those quarterbacks once the Patriots get to Indianapolis.

Reason No. 2: Home-field advantage

The road to the Super Bowl most likely goes through Gillette Stadium. All the Patriots have to do is beat a pair of AFC East bottom-feeders -- the Miami Dolphins (5-9) and the Bills (5-9) -- at home the next two weeks.

That will be a huge advantage for the Patriots in the playoffs. New England is 5-1 at home this season and 22-1 in its last 23 games at Gillette Stadium. (The Patriots did drop of pair of playoff games, but we will get to that later.)

With two home games to finish the regular season and probably home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Patriots won't play on the road until they reach the Super Bowl. At that point, it will be a neutral site against the best team from the NFC.

Teams like the Jets (2-5) and Ravens (3-4) have looked awful on the road this year. The Steelers (4-3) have been slightly above average away from Heinz Field. That could come into play if those teams travel to New England in January.

Also, for all the criticism New England's defense has received, the group plays its best football at home. New England is allowing just 18.2 points per game at Gillette Stadium, versus 23.5 points per game on the road. The Patriots' offense will score plenty of points. Therefore, New England will be very tough to beat if its defense maintains its home scoring average in the postseason.

Reason No. 3: Patriots are hottest team in the AFC

Remember the Packers last year? They got hot toward the end of the season and rode the wave all the way to the Super Bowl.

This year's New England team is even hotter than the Packers were in 2010. The Patriots have won six in a row and most likely will enter the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak.

Momentum means a lot this time of year. The Patriots have it. No other team in the AFC can make that claim. The Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos and Jets are all coming off losses. Behind the Patriots, the hottest team in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers (7-7), who have won three in a row but may not make the playoffs.

Overall, the AFC is a flawed conference this year. The Steelers have a horrid offensive line and a gimpy quarterback playing on one leg. The Ravens are an enigma on the road. The Texans are trying to win playoff games with a rookie at quarterback. And the Jets and Broncos don't have enough offensive firepower and simply aren't good enough to make a title run.

There are no complete teams in the AFC and that leaves it wide open for a hot team with home-field advantage like the Patriots to advance to the Super Bowl.

Reason No. 4: Motivation not to be one-and-done

As hard as it is to believe, the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since the 2007 season. That will change this year when a focused and motivated New England team takes the field in January.

Brady and coach Bill Belichick will not allow the Patriots to be one-and-done for the third year in a row. The stakes are too high.

Their legacies are on the line. The Hall of Fame pair do not want to be remembered for losing early-round playoff games in the second half of their Patriot careers as much as their three Super Bowls in the first half. It's starting to get to that point, especially if the Patriots suffer another early exit this season.

It's been four years since New England last experienced playoff success. That's an eternity for Brady and Belichick, who are accustomed to winning big games. Time also is running out for Brady to make another Super Bowl run. He's 34 and only has a few elite years left. The Patriots will not squander this opportunity.

Expect to see Brady versus Brees or Brady versus Rodgers in Super Bowl XLVI.

MIAMI -- I know what you’re thinking: What to do on the sleepy Sunday night between the Championship Games and the Super Bowl?

I have it: Come join some of the funniest, most knowledgeable people that write NFL blogs at ESPN.com for a live conversation over on NFL Nation Live. You’ll have me, Tim Graham, Mike Sando, John Clayton and maybe some surprise guests all checking in with insightful observations and witty banter.

It all starts right here at 7 p.m. ET. We’ll have a good time. I promise you.

MIAMI -- Soon I’ll be starting the trek over to the Pro Bowl. Colleagues Mike Sando (NFC West) and Tim Graham (AFC East) will be joining John Clayton in a pseudo-live chat throughout the game. Please join us here at NFL Nation Live at 7 p.m. ET.

I read through many of your comments from Saturday’s post on Bryant McKinnie’s dismissal from the NFC team. Many of them were legitimate and one stood out. This from Vikes4ever70:

“Hey KS, I don't think Bryant McKinnie was/is the only NFC north member at the pro bowl. How bout another blog that is about one of them, instead of taking every chance you get to focus on one negative incident involving a Viking.”

I don’t know about taking “every chance,” but you’re right in this regard: It’s time to stop giving McKinnie any more attention. Instead, we’ll focus the rest of our coverage on Aaron Rodgers, Steve Hutchinson, Johnny Knox and the rest of the NFC North players who actually braved the week of practice and will participate in this game.

I’ll check back in a few hours from Sun Life Stadium. Until then, let’s take a Sunday afternoon spin around the division:

• At the very least, it looks like Mike Martz is a serious contender for Chicago’s offensive coordinator job. He met Saturday with Bears quarterback Jay Cutler in Nashville, Tenn. Here are reports from the Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times.
• Offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, both pending free agents, are the Packers’ two highest priorities this offseason, writes Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
• Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has a Q&A with former Packers tight end Mark Chmura, who will be inducted into the Packers Hall of Fame. Chmura: “You know, I've said I'm sorry 100 times. I don't know how many more times I can say it.”
• John Niyo of the Detroit News looks at a relatively rare occurrence for the Lions: Relative continuity on the coaching staff.
• The Lions will improve their defense, one way or the other, with the No. 2 pick in the 2010 draft, writes Nicholas J. Cotsonika of the Detroit Free Press.