ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Jaguars in 2012.

Dream scenario (10-6): Mike Mularkey’s offensive scheme does for Blaine Gabbert what it did early on for Matt Ryan in Atlanta. Gabbert silences his stable of critics, playing with a newfound poise and confidence and finding himself in situations where he’s comfortable and can show off the arm that was a big reason he was a top 10 pick.

The second-year quarterback is well-protected as he works his way through progressions and spreads the ball around to a much-improved receiving corps headed by Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon. With the passing offense faring far better, Maurice Jones-Drew's hammer hits even harder because his carries are less predictable.

Defensively, the team is healthy all season long in karmic payback for last year’s slew of injuries.

Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton put it all together with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny playing great behind them, and no one can even ponder running up the middle against the Jaguars. Rookie second-rounder Andre Branch provides a serious boost to the pass rush and the linebackers get involved in pressuring the quarterback. When they don’t get a sufficient push, the coverage holds up.

And rookie punter Bryan Anger regularly hits bombs and pins teams deep, semi-justifying his third-round draft status.

Mularkey wins coach of the year as the Jaguars qualify for the playoffs.

Nightmare scenario (4-12): New coaches, a new system and new receivers don’t make for a new Gabbert, and he struggles in his second season much as he did as a rookie. A rough start means the fan base calls for backup Chad Henne, and Mularkey finds himself in a tough spot with a quick quarterback controversy.

Henne eventually gets the call but doesn’t play much better, so the team is over-reliant on the run game. The defense, meanwhile, can’t overcome the lack of a pass rush. It gives up too many passing yards and too many big plays because quarterbacks have time to wait for targets to break open. Then the Jaguars begin to blitz more to amp things up, but pay a price by giving up big plays out of high risk, high-reward situations.

Owner Shahid Khan, used to life as a businessman who wins, says or does something controversial that makes things even messier. The Jaguars actually finish a game worse than they did in Jack Del Rio’s final season, leaving Denver’s defensive coordinator shrugging and people removing some responsibility for 2011 from him.

Nickel defenses are played more than ever in the NFL.

But the AFC South may be moving the other direction in games against each other.

The Texans are comfortable lining up with three wide receivers or splitting tight end Owen Daniels out into spread formations. The Jaguars and Titans figured to remain running back-centric. If the Titans get a bounce-back from Chris Johnson, they will likely run more. Of course those two teams can spread things out with the intent to run, of course.

But two games when AFC South teams loaded up with nickel packages are likely to change.

The departure of Peyton Manning from the Colts means one team that dictated constant nickel defenses is being altered. New coach Chuck Pagano has talked about running and stopping the run and GM Ryan Grigson said Monday he expects the Colts to be a fullback team.

A linebacker is typically going to stay on the field against a two-back set. The lack of a precision passing offense and weapons like Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon will make it tougher for the Colts to dictate a team's defensive personnel, or to take advantage of it.

"The third linebacker or the nickel corner?” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said at the owners meetings, repeating a question about what’s more important. “You look at your schedule and say, 'OK, what are we going to play this year? Are we going to be in nickel all year, or are we going to be trying to stop the run?' I think that's what things will come down to.

“One year you might be out there in nickel defense 60 or 70 percent of the time. The next year it could be 50. It all starts with your division. When Peyton was at Indy, if we didn't have three good corners we were in trouble every time we played them. So I think you've kind of got to build your roster to compete in your division, No. 1, and make that decision."

This means the Jaguars will have two more games where they can play more with their great linebacking trio of Paul Posluszny, Daryl Smith and Clint Session on the field together.

This means the Titans' new nickelback -- whether he's an outsider or Ryan Mouton, Chris Hawkins or Tommie Campbell -- isn't going to be as important against Indy as recent ones have been.

This means DeMeco Ryans' replacement in the Texans base defense, Darryl Sharpton, will get additional snaps.

Is that better or worse? As good as Andrew Luck will be coming out of Stanford, defenses are going to want to play the rebuilding Colts in 2012.

The sort of bold move the Jaguars were due to make thanks to plenty of salary-cap room and a new owner who’s talked about being all-in has arrived.

While the Jaguars signed receiver Laurent Robinson and backup quarterback Chad Henne, the addition of former Giants cornerback Aaron Ross is a bigger move.

Adam Schefter reports the Jaguars and Ross have agreed on a three-year deal worth up to $15.3 million.

Ross should bring the Jaguars a great deal in play and leadership -- he started in both the Giants’ Super Bowl wins over the Patriots.

Corner depth was the Jaguars’ second-biggest need on defense, behind only the sort of special pass-rushing end that many teams are searching for fruitlessly.

Jacksonville had previously re-signed Rashean Mathis, a one-time staple. He’s coming off a torn ACL, however, and his deal is an incentive-laden one-year package.

The Jaguars now have Ross, Derek Cox, Mathis and nickel corner Drew Coleman.

That’s a pretty solid stable to fill out the defensive backfield with safeties Dawan Landry and Dwight Lowery.

Despite managing to re-sign end Jeremy Mincey, end and receiver remain the primary needs.

The defense is an end away from being loaded, having now added a quality six pack of veterans in the past two seasons: linebackers Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, safeties Landry and Lowery and corners Ross and Coleman.

Bill Lubinger and Rich Exner of the Cleveland Plain Dealer put together a comprehensive free-agency scorecard.

They tracked what every team in the league has done from 2006-2011, and matched up winning percentages during that time.

That’s hardly scientific.

But all different kinds of signings count the same here.

• Signing defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to a monster contract and getting minimal production, as Washington did.
• Signing a big free agent who gives you all you hoped for, as the Texans did with cornerback Johnathan Joseph, or the Jaguars did with Paul Posluszny.
• Signing a cheap guy you think can emerge, as the Titans did with defensive end Jason Babin, and getting fantastic production.
• Signing a player like defensive end Aaron Kampman, who the Jaguars have gotten minimal production from as he has dealt with knee injuries.

Still, it’s interesting to consider the list in totality.

Here’s how the AFC South placed:

Hat tip to Scott Kendrick of the Florida Times-Union blog.

The Jaguars won’t be as active in free agency this year as they were last year, according to general manager Gene Smith, writes Tania Ganguli of the Florida Times-Union.

I hope that doesn’t prove to be the case. The team could go a long way toward solving at least two of its three primary issues -- receiver, end, cornerback -- in free agency and it has the money.

Smith: "I think [owner Shahid Khan] understands the philosophy is to build your team through the draft. I think most teams have figured that out. Where you don’t want to be is in pro free agency year in and year out. That’s not our philosophy. It’s to supplement the college draft."

Sure, the philosophy is to build through the draft. But the core players you need on your roster left from the drafts before Smith got control aren’t really around. So now you get those guy in free agency, the way the Jaguars got Paul Posluszny, Clint Session and Dawan Landry last year.

I hope the Jaguars don’t avoid free agency on principle, to prove they are centered on building though the draft. Mario Williams or Robert Mathis or Vincent Jackson or Brandon Carr -- better yet a couple of those guys -- can help transform the Jaguars.

Smith can have the semantics.

Emphasize that free agency is supplemental all you like.

Just so long as you’re not going forward thinking a good draft can do the bulk of the work to get Blaine Gabbert the weapons he needs and to give the Jaguars the special pass-rusher they covet.

Khan’s pushed his chips to the middle for the table and has said he’s all in.

All in means at least a couple big moves in free agency.

Monday we presented the All AFC-South offense. Today we move to defense and special teams.

I felt like there was a worthy candidate at every spot, and beyond wrestling with choosing between Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis for a defensive end spot, I didn’t have any gigantic struggles.

To accommodate the personnel of the 3-4 Texans along with the 4-3 Colts, Texans and Titans, we created a 12-man defense with four linemen and four linebackers. It seemed like a fair approach to me that stops short of bastardizing the team.

DEs: Houston rookie J.J. Watt was a giant presence from the start, serving as a key piece of the team’s revamped front. He was easily the division’s rookie of the year. Mathis gets the nod over Freeney but it could have gone either way. They both had fewer chances because teams threw less against them, but remained quite effective.

DTs: Antonio Smith of the Texans played end in base and tackle in nickel and his versatility was really highlighted in the 3-4 system. Casey was not at a similar level, but the Titans rookie was a stout and reliable run-stopper.

OLBs: The Jaguars were stacked at linebacker thanks to their free-agent shopping. On an upgraded defense, Daryl Smith really got to show himself a fine player. In Houston, Connor Barwin blossomed into an 11.5-sack guy who was constantly around the quarterback.

ILBs: Brian Cushing was a terror for the Texans, proving an excellent fit as an inside backer for Wade Phillips. At his best, he was something to behold. The same can be said for Jacksonville’s Paul Posluszny. He gave the Jaguars everything they were looking for in terms of production and leadership as a free-agent acquisition.

CBs: Houston’s Johnathan Joseph was the AFC South MVP in my eyes. The Texans hit a home run by adding Joseph, a settling force in the secondary who played sticky coverage all season. Tennessee’s Cortland Finnegan didn’t produce on the same level, but his willingness and ability to shift inside and play a physical brand of nickel was a positive factor for the Titans' defense.

S: The Texans' move of Glover Quin from nickel corner to strong safety worked out beautifully and they are trend-setters in terms of having guys with corner skills playing in the middle of the field. He was steady and productive. Dwight Lowery showed good smarts and awareness for the Jaguars at a spot that was a huge hole the previous season. Signing him will be a priority.

K: Rob Bironas of the Titans missed just three field goals all season. While Jacksonville’s Josh Scobee missed only two, he tried fewer. And Bironas had a division-high 44 touchbacks

P: The Colts' Pat McAfee gets the edge over the Titans' Brett Kern in a very close race. Punting out of trouble was more important more often for Indianapolis, and McAfee’s net average was hurt by less than stellar coverage but shouldn’t offset his slightly bigger leg.

PR, KR: There was no outstanding work done in these spots for anyone in the division, so we pretty much go chalk. Jacksonville punt returner Deji Karim led the division in punt return average, Tennessee kick returner Marc Mariani led in kick return average.

ST: Kassim Osgood of the Jaguars continued to be a top guy in coverage work.

» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending.

Final Power Ranking: 27
Preseason Power Ranking: 19

Biggest surprise: The Jaguars added six new veterans to their lineup of top-12 defensive players and once the group jelled it played very productively. Jacksonville finished sixth in overall defense, making giant strides from 2010 and maintaining the gain even as it lost a load of quality contributors to injury. Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, who finished the season as interim coach after Jack Del Rio was fired, did good work in his first season as the defense's playcaller. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny was the sort of centerpiece tackling machine the team envisioned when signing him away from Buffalo as a free agent.

Biggest disappointment: The Jaguars didn’t intend for rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to start 14 games before they felt he was ready to take over. But by cutting David Garrard (who later wound up having back surgery) just a week before the season started and bailing quickly on veteran Luke McCown, they went against their own plan and paid a huge price for it. Jacksonville’s pass offense was worse than anyone could have anticipated, averaging just 136.2 yards per game. The NFL’s best passing offense in New Orleans averaged 334.2. Gabbert may not have been much better operating behind better protection and with more dangerous weapons at receiver, but it sure would have been good for him to have had a chance to find out. Tight end Marcedes Lewis killed the team with his disappearing act after he got his payday.

Biggest need: While the defense will need a pass-rushing end and at least one cornerback, the attention has to be focused on the offense. Mike Thomas was the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2011 but slumped badly after he got a contract extension and was not equipped to work as the primary guy. He should be the third option in 2012, working primarily out of the slot. The Jaguars need big, fast and physical receivers who can threaten downfield and go get the ball for Gabbert or whoever winds up playing quarterback.

Team MVP: Unquestionably, running back Maurice Jones-Drew. He’s just the fifth back since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to lead the league in rushing on a team with the NFL’s worst passing offense. That means with no threat to keep defenses honest, he ran consistently against stacked boxes and still produced in a giant way. There are always worries about wear and tear on him, yet he finished very strongly with no sign of tapering off. The Jaguars need to get other guys who are good with the ball in their hands so they can rely on him less, extend his window, and increase the chance he’s on a winning team.

Still searching for pressure: How long have the Jaguars needed a consistent pass-rush threat off the edge? It seems they are always looking. Jeremy Mincey is a great, high-energy player, but he’d benefit greatly from having a player opposing offenses have to game plan around. Yes, the franchise missed badly when it traded up to No. 8 for Derrick Harvey in the 2008 draft and counted on its second pick the same year, Quentin Groves, to help rush too. They are mistakes they still haven’t made up for. Knee injuries and rehabilitation have meant Aaron Kampman has played in only 11 games in two seasons and will be hard to bank on.

» NFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South » AFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South

Perfect sense: Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew and Texans running back Arian Foster are two of the AFC South’s running backs, though Baltimore’s Ray Rice is the starter. MJD is on the verge of his first rushing title a season after Foster led the league in ground yards. Johnathan Joseph qualifies as one of the best veteran additions in the league and deserves his spot as a backup to Darrelle Revis and Champ Bailey.

Made it on rep: Indianapolis defensive end Dwight Freeney is the division’s lone starter. He remains a premier pass rusher who’s a very tough player to block. The last two weeks when the Colts have won showed how feared he and Robert Mathis remain, as the Titans and Texans were overeager to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand. But on one of the league’s very worst teams, Mathis may have had a better season. And while Antonio Smith and J.J. Watt of the Texans are 3-4 ends who don’t get the glory that comes with taking the quarterback down as often, a case could be made for either as a bigger contributor to his team’s success this season.

Got robbed: The Texans are currently the No. 2 defense in the NFL and have been in the top slot for much of the season. Four Houston defenders -- outside linebacker Connor Barwin, inside linebacker Brian Cushing, Smith and Watt -- are alternates, though we don’t yet know where in the pecking order. While outside linebacker is loaded and it’s tough for 3-4 ends to get in, Ray Lewis has missed a lot of action with a toe injury. I suspect both Cushing and Jacksonville's middle linebacker, Paul Posluszny, have been more influential for their teams this season. Texans center Chris Myers should represent one of the league's best offensive lines. The Titans got no one on the initial roster. Kicker Rob Bironas has been remarkable and qualifies as their best candidate. But the AFC’s kicker, Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski, has certainly had a big year.

Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. The Houston Texans' confidence: They will say otherwise, but coming off of two bad losses the Texans have to be wondering about themselves. They got pushed around by Carolina, and their vaunted defense fell apart in the final minutes, allowing the Colts to drive to a game-winning touchdown. I was among those questioning this team’s mental makeup coming into the season. I thought they’d answered that question resoundingly as they ran away with the division. Is it creeping back in now?

2. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ dealings with tight ends: Marcedes Lewis will be a headliner on the AFC South All Disappointment Team, and if not for Chris Johnson, he’d be the captain. Saturday in Nashville, he pulled up on one ball across the middle for fear of a hit from notorious thumper Michael Griffin, the Titans safety (#sarcasm). On the other end, the defense let Tennessee’s Jared Cook run wild. The coverage call on Cook’s 55-yard touchdown pass that sent the safeties wide and left middle linebacker Paul Posluszny covering Cook deep down the middle was disastrous.

3. The Houston Texans’ third-down offense: On last week’s list, it was third-down defense. The Colts allowed them just one conversion in 10 chances, and that one came on a pass that bounced off Antoine Bethea twice. This team can win with games centered on defense and the run game. But if the offense can’t convert third downs and stay on the field for some extended drives, the strain on those two areas becomes too much and the margin of error shrivels.

RISING

1. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver: He talked leading up to the Colts' home finale about wanting to go out with a bang in case it turned out to be his last game as a Colt at Lucas Oil Stadium. I saw one early route where I thought his effort was questionable. But he sure cranked it up as Dan Orlovsky threw his direction 14 times. He pulled in eight receptions for 106 yards and cradled the game-winning touchdown after a 1-yard catch that provided the winning margin for Indianapolis in its second consecutive win. He’s heading toward free agency and it’s clear he can still produce. How much longer is the question.

2. The Tennessee Titans’ discipline: Mike Munchak has preached discipline from his first day as the Titans coach. Saturday, when he didn’t get a postgame question about a penalty-free performance, he didn’t leave the podium before jokingly pointing it out. It was the first time the franchise didn’t draw a flag in a game since 1972. Meanwhile the Titans benefited from six calls against the Jaguars that gave Tennessee 28 yards and three first downs.

3. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans tight end: Following the best game for a tight end in franchise history -- 169 yards -- he’s in range of the franchise record for tight end receiving yards in a season. He’s a receiver-like threat who I believe has been under-used by offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck since Kenny Britt went down early in the season. Cook killed the Titans with a lost fumble in the loss at Indianapolis. The effort against the Jaguars was an excellent rebound. The Titans need to find ways to get him the ball Sunday at Reliant Stadium.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Titans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer polls his quarterbacks on their three favorite plays out of each week’s game plan.

Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker and Rusty Smith all voted this week for a deep crossing route.

It was a play the Titans ran with great success in a 23-17 Christmas Eve win over the Jaguars that kept Tennessee in contention for the sixth and final berth in the AFC playoff field.

The Titans need to finish in a three-way tie at 9-7 with the Bengals and Jets or with the Bengals and Raiders to earn the No. 6 seed.

The trio of signal-callers often votes the same way in separate, secret balloting which influences Palmer’s approach, Hasselbeck said.

“It’s mental telepathy or something,” he said. “We get along really well, we like the same plays. They think we’re cheating off of each other, but we’re not.”

Rarely does the favored play contribute so heavily to a favored result.

Hasselbeck leaned on it heavily and posted strong passing numbers despite two interceptions, with 24 completions in 40 pass attempts, for 350 yards and a touchdown.

Tight end Jared Cook is a big, fast, receiver-like threat. He disappears at times and has not been featured the way many of us expected he would be this season. In Week 15 he lost a deadly fumble in Indianapolis when the Titans were mounting a charge.

But he keyed this Titans win with eight catches for 169 yards and the 55-yard score on a mismatch with Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, who was left in an unreasonably difficult spot by the coverage.

No tight end for the Titans or Oilers ever collected so much receiving yardage in one game. The previous record was 150 by Houston’s Dave Casper in 1980.

While the Jaguars have a strong front seven, they do not have particularly threatening edge pass-rushers. That helped the Titans feel comfortable lining Cook up less often next to a tackle, and more often in a two-by-two set, as if he were a receiver in a four-wide formation.

Nate Washington, also in a slot, typically drew nickelback Drew Coleman in coverage. Hasselbeck said that also helped get Cook into open space more often than usual.

Cook said the Titans talked all week about the opportunities they’d find against an injury-depleted Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are without both their starting corners, Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox, and played Saturday minus starting safety Dwight Lowery. That meant Ashton Youboty and Morgan Trent started at corner and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah was in the lineup at safety.

Youboty suffered a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter, and couldn't finish the game. He was replaced by David Jones, a player Jacksonville decided was not part of its future at the end of training camp.

Combine all that change with a gimpy Chris Johnson, who sprained an ankle last week, and the Titans decided to push it with the pass.

“We kind of looked at the first-15 script and saw there was a little change up from the normal,” Cook said, referring to the preordained 15 plays the Titans wanted to run out of the gate if the situations permitted for them. “We kind of got excited. So kudos to coach Palmer for kind of doing that and catching the defense off guard.”

Not to harp, but… While the Titans are over last week’s loss at previously winless Indianapolis, I can’t help wonder how things might be different for them had they taken this approach a week earlier against the Colts, who rush the passer better but also have a secondary minus three starters.

“It’s just hard to predict games,” Hasselbeck said.

It’s hard, too, to predict what happens in all the games that influence the Titans’ chances next week.

But the Texans are locked into the third seed, and have nothing to gain with a win and nothing to lose with a loss. If the Titans find their way in, their opponent isn’t in question. They’ll go right back to Houston for a wild-card game.

The Titans know they’ve blown a ton of chances that would have left them in a better spot.

“We’re alive,” guard Jake Scott said. “That’s all you can ask for right now. We’ve got to handle our business and hope for the help that we need.”

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Thoughts on the Tennessee Titans’ 23-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars at LP Field Stadium.

What it means: The Titans remain alive for the No. 6 seed in the AFC with a win that moved them to 8-7. They still need a win at Houston and help to qualify for the postseason. The Jaguars fell to 4-11.

What I liked, Titans: A week after the Titans were far too conservative against a Colts defense lacking in the secondary, they found a weak spot to attack down field against a team missing three starters in the secondary. Tight end Jared Cook caught eight passes for 169 yards and a touchdown, finding himself alone with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny a few times. That’s a franchise record for tight end receiving yards in a game. Dave Casper had 150 for the Oilers in 1980.

What I didn’t like, Jaguars: The Jaguars had too many three-and-outs and were in third-and-long far too often. With ineffective plays on first downs, they just couldn’t get a lot of drives started. The defense set things up several times. They had two interceptions and a fumble recovery that could have really gotten them back in the game, but the offense managed to convert them into just 10 points.

Second-guess city: A pass play on fourth-and-1 from the Tennessee 9-yard line wound up intercepted by Michael Griffin. It’s easy to say they should have handed off to Maurice Jones-Drew. But they should have handed off to Maurice Jones-Drew.

What I wonder: How in the world can Jones-Drew top 100 yards and be in the lead for the rushing title when the Jaguars passing offense has been so ineffective this season?

What’s next: The Titans head for Houston, where they hope to mess up Houston's playoff positioning and squeeze into the postseason field. The Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts. If they beat Indianapolis, the Jaguars assure Indianapolis of the top pick in the April draft.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — And now a few thoughts about tight ends.

They’ve figured prominently in the first half of the Jaguars-Titans game. Tennessee leads 17-10.

Jared Cook, who’s not lived up to expectations this season, has found seam after seam and has six catches for 136 yards and a touchdown for Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans.

Marcedes Lewis, who’s not lived up to expectations this season, pulled up on a ball he could have caught for the Jaguars out of fear of a hit from Michael Griffin. Griffin’s hardly been doling out giant pops this season. Blaine Gabbert’s gotten one catch out of Lewis, same as Zach Potter and half as many as Colin Cloherty.

The Titans should continue to attack using Cook, who’s gotten himself in one-on-one situations with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, who’s not equipped to survive such a matchup.

It was unreasonable to expect Lewis to pull in 10 touchdowns this season the way he did last season. But certainly he should have more than zero, and he should be a featured piece of an offense severely lacking at receiver.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Texans third-string quarterback Sunday felt compelled to take some snaps from center Chris Myers during intermission.

Tight end Owen Daniels sure hoped he wasn’t needed, but with Matt Leinart out and rookie T.J. Yates the only other active quarterback dressed for the game, he knew he was one play away from potential action.

“I was just trying to stay focused on my job at the current time,” Daniels said after the Texans beat the Jaguars 20-13 at EverBank Stadium. “But if the worst-case scenario came along, our coaches make sure we know the game plan pretty well. I had confidence that I could go in there and hand the ball off or maybe make a simple throw.”

The Texans were conservative with Leinart in his first start in place of injured starter Matt Schaub. They were even more conservative when they had to turn to Yates, who was in uniform for his first NFL regular-season game.

The fifth-round draft pick out of North Carolina hit 8 of 15 passes for 70 yards and played well enough to help his team turn a 20-10 lead, built while Leinart was in the game, into the win.

Now they are prepared to go forward with Yates as their starter. Multiple reports quickly surfaced that Leinart was finished for the year with a left collarbone injury, one he suffered in 2007 with Arizona. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported "all indications are it's broken."

Gary Kubiak was unwilling to share details of Leinart's injury, suffered as he was hit by Jeremy Mincey. The coach said the X-rays from EverBank Stadium were unclear, which sounded a little like a dog-ate-my-homework deal once Leinart spoke.

“I think there is a pretty strong possibility that I won’t be coming back this season,” Leinart said. “But we’ll see what the doctor says.”

So the Texans will likely move on with their third starting quarterback in three games.

“It’s why we drafted him,” offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said of Yates. “He’s a calm guy, he’s a smart guy and he knows what we do. We’ll see how it goes the next couple days, the next week. If that’s what we have, that’s what we’ll get done.”

The Texans signed Kellen Clemens to be their third quarterback after Schaub went on IR last week. Now they will shop again, and a newcomer will have a chance to challenge Clemens to be Yates’ backup. (Clemens was inactive Sunday as the Houston suited up two quarterbacks, just as it has all year.)

Barring a clean X-ray from Houston that overrides what Leinart was feeling, it will be Yates who gets the call next week against Atlanta and beyond. The Texans prefer a quarterback who’s spent time studying their system and understanding its nuances. They believe such a guy can fit in well with a team that can win by featuring the run game and strong defense. They believe that’s better than a big-name quarterback outsider who is unfamiliar with what Kubiak, Dennison and quarterback coach Gregg Knapp do.

So don’t expect any trips to Mississippi by Texans officials to talk to Brett Favre or any phone calls to check on the health of David Garrard.

Instead, expect a more open game plan for Yates.

Right tackle Eric Winston said the Texans were wary of anything against the Jaguars that could get Yates hurt because they didn’t want to test Daniels’ quarterbacking skills. It’s a mistake, Winston emphasized, to put too much in to what the rookie did, or didn’t do.

“I think next week you’ll see a much different T.J. because he can make some huge throws,” Winston said. “He’s much more athletic than Schaub or Leinart. That will work well with some of what we do. He can get out of the pocket, he can make some throws. I am not worried at all. I think that he'll meld well with what we’re doing in the play-action game.”

They Texans can’t oversimplify game plans. Those plans don’t have to be 100-plays deep, and the Texans don’t need 100 plays to win.

Yates has been a sit-and-learn, third-string guy until Sunday. He’s unlikely to be Cam Newton or Andy Dalton as a starter.

But he is surrounded by a better team. He spent a good share of the summer during the lockout working with Schaub and Dan Orlovsky in Houston. And he has run the scout team for the bulk of the season.

“T.J. man, he’s a professional NFL quarterback,” defensive back Sherrick McManis said. “He’s definitely got room for improvement and needs time to grow like most of us. But on scout team he’s done exactly what he’s supposed to do.”

Yates said while that work is intended to mimic the opponent of the week, the Texans do their best to shape it for him in a way that translates to their own scheme.

“Every week we try to get the same things from our offense into other offenses,” he said. “Kind of tie it into our offense as much as possible.”

After running eight plays at the end of the second quarter, Yates returned to the field after the half with Schaub.

Schaub, who’s wearing a protective boot on his right foot and will soon have surgery, told Yates that a lot of people will tell him how to move forward. Houston’s starting quarterback told him: Stay calm, be confident in yourself, you’re ready to play, don’t think too much.

He did well enough.

Now the expectation is he will step into the spotlight and be under far greater scrutiny.

Next week against the Falcons is a game the Texans might have lost even with Schaub. A trip to Cincinnati the week after won’t be easy either.

Then, however, the team that would be the AFC’s top seed if the playoffs started today finishes with Carolina at home, a trip to Indianapolis, and Tennessee at home.

Houston might still win 10 or 11 games with Yates at quarterback.

What it can do if it wins the AFC South and goes to the playoffs will be a much different question.

“They have a big-time offensive line and a great running game, but in our league you’ve got to be able to do both,” Jacksonville linebacker Paul Posluszny said. “They are a good team. They’ve scored a lot of points in the past.

“But a lot of that, I think, was because Schaub does a great job managing that offense. That’ll be a challenge for them for sure.”

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jaguars very likely have a coaching change coming. Their GM isn’t under contract for next season. They pulled their rookie starting quarterback in the course of Sunday’s 20-13 loss to Houston that dropped their record to 3-8.

So how do they hold things together moving forward for five more games?

“A lot of things are going against us right now, that’s for sure,” said veteran linebacker Paul Posluszny, whose high-level play continued with seven tackles and a forced fumble. “But for this team, we’ve still got to be able to compete til the very end. We’re professionals, we’re going to act like it, we’re going to do our job to the best of our abilities regardless of the situation.”

Jack Del Rio pulled Blaine Gabbert in favor of Luke McCown with roughly 7 minutes left in the game, searching for a spark. A coach who seemingly passed the buck to offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter a week ago for poor play-calling and clock management at the end of last week’s loss in Cleveland said this move was all his.

The Jaguars pulled within a score, but couldn’t convert a fourth-and-2 at the Houston 40 with 1:16 left.

Del Rio indicated Gabbert is his starting quarterback until he says otherwise, but of course, he could say otherwise at any time.

“When he was called on, he went in there and gave us a spark,” Del Rio said of McCown.

Gabbert made some good throws and led a great second-quarter drive with consecutive passes of 31 yards to running back Maurice Jones-Drew, 25 yards to rookie receiver Cecil Shorts and 14 yards to Marcedes Lewis. But then from the 3, they couldn’t punch it in as Lewis dropped an easy touchdown.

Perhaps only on a subconscious level the Jaguars deflated after the resulting field goal that put them ahead 10-7, and the Texans got better.

Jacksonville didn’t have a drive longer than eight plays after that. Eight of their 10 subsequent possessions ended with a punt, a turnover or on downs.

“It’s a tough situation for him,” Posluszny said of Gabbert. “Blaine is our guy. He’s the quarterback. He’s the quarterback of the future for this team. Obviously he didn’t play as well as he wanted to, so they made a switch.”

Gabbert and McCown combined to be sacked seven times, with four coming from Texans outside linebacker Connor Barwin, who made it a tough day for right tackle Guy Whimper.

Maurice Jones-Drew said he and everyone on offense took the quarterback change personally.

“When they pull your quarterback, they are saying something about you,” he said. “We have to continue to work to get better.”

Gabbert had a post-game demeanor befitting a guy who had a bad day and was benched. McCown said the 10th overall pick in the draft has a great willingness to work hard to get improve.

"He's growing, he's getting better," McCown said. "We've just got to hang with him."

That was conveyed to Gabbert.

“I think it’s why we are all here, I think it’s why we are all in the NFL,” he said. “We worked hard to get here and we’re working hard to stay here.”

» Midseason MVPs: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Here are my picks for midseason most valuable player for each team in the division:

Houston Texans: Johnathan Joseph

We could go with many differeny players here on a team that’s looking like a lock to win the division. But the veteran cornerback who was signed as a free agent has helped calm down a secondary that was a disaster last season. Now, last season's 30th-ranked defense is first in the league, and teams are wary of throwing in his direction. He’s a guy opponents are conscious of all the time, and the Texans didn’t have anyone that registered like that in the secondary last season. In a defensive transformation, Joseph's been key. He’s got three interceptions and 10 passes defended.

Indianapolis Colts: Pat Angerer

The second-year linebacker is far from a Pro Bowler, but on a team in shambles he’s one guy you can point to who’s been consistently productive and actually has upside. He’s been credited with 97 tackles, 22 more than the next most productive Colt, safety Antoine Bethea. Angerer's shift to the middle and performance in the spot since Gary Brackett was lost for the season to an opening day shoulder injury has been a success. His play puts Brackett's future into question.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Paul Posluszny

A veteran addition has been just the sort of middle linebacker Jacksonville was hoping for when it signed him away from the Buffalo Bills. He’s been a consistent and steady leader in the right place at the right time, making tackles and forcing teams to try to take the ball elsewhere. The Jaguars are thrilled with the defensive leadership he’s provided and questions about his one alleged weak spot, his coverage skills, aren’t anything we’ve been talking about. He leads the team with 100 tackles.

Tennessee Titans: Matt Hasselbeck

Hold off on talking about how the Titans aren’t going to contend for a playoff spot so they should turn to Jake Locker. Hasselbeck has been a huge presence in transforming the locker room and carrying the messages of his coaching staff into practice. He’s had great protection and made a lot of good throws. With lousy receivers once Kenny Britt went down, things can be a struggle, but he’s been the right guy to fight through. He's got 13 touchdowns versus six interceptions.