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Todd Archer ran some numbers, and his conclusion is that the Dallas Cowboys struggle with the draft. Here's some of his data:

Since 2007, the Cowboys have drafted 47 players and only 18 remain. That’s not good. After a quick perusal of the NFC East, it’s the worst percentage (38.3%) of any team in the division. From 2007-12, Philadelphia has 28 of 59 picks left (47.5%); Washington has 24 of 48 picks (50%) and the New York Giants have 24 of 46 picks left (52%).

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In the last three years, which should be the core of a team, the Cowboys have 15 of 21 picks left. The Eagles are the worst with 23 of 33 picks. Washington is the best at 21 of 27 and the Giants have 16 of 22 picks remaining.

The point of entry for Todd's analysis was a discussion about whether they should have moved down in the 2011 draft, when they stayed put and took Tyron Smith at No. 9 and whether they were wise to move up in 2012, when they used their first-round pick and their second-round pick to draft Morris Claiborne. Todd thinks last year's move and 2011's non-move were mistakes. I agree, as I think most of you know, about last year. Because I think Smith will be a franchise left tackle, I don't hold the 2011 decision against them.

But what I see here is a clue about how the Cowboys play the top of the draft, and it's a discouraging one. It appears to me that Jerry Jones, who ultimately makes these decisions, falls in love with a player and does what he can to get him, the rest of the draft be damned. And a roster as thin with top-level talent as Dallas' has been for the last couple of years needs to make the second, third and fourth rounds more productive than the Cowboys usually have.

They love Claiborne as a keystone piece for the future, and that's fine. But had they held onto that second-round pick, they might have been able to come out of the first two rounds with, for example, Fletcher Cox and Peter Konz. (Yes, they'd have had to move up for Cox, but likely not with a second-rounder in the deal.) Two starting pieces instead of one. This is the approach Dallas needs to take this year -- finding a new starting offensive lineman in the first round and then looking for immediate contributors, on either line or at safety, in Rounds 2 and 3.

When they dealt away their second-round pick last year, a lot of Cowboys' fans said that was OK because they always mess up the second round anyway. But 2011's second-rounder was Bruce Carter and 2010's was Sean Lee. They also got DeMarco Murray in the third round in 2011. These are players on which they're attempting to build their future core, and it would be wise to keep in mind the value those picks (and those that follow them) have when things get hot and heavy tomorrow night and the temptation to grab a player they love overrides the value of the pick or picks needed to get him.

Remember, when we critique a draft in progress on this blog, we're not making predictions about how guys will play, because we can't and neither can anyone else. We're looking at the value of the picks and how they were used -- whether they could have waited until the fifth or sixth round for a guy they took in the fourth, for example. That's what you'll find here Thursday night through Saturday night, and we'll have a close eye on the Cowboys, of course, since this is a gigantic draft for them and they can't mess it up.

It has to be a bittersweet time for the Atlanta Falcons with center Todd McClure saying he’s going to retire.

A formal announcement is expected after owner Arthur Blank returns from next week's NFL meetings. Let’s start this off by sending some kudos McClure’s way. Drafted by Atlanta in 1999, McClure has been a fixture on the offensive line through some very good times and some bad times. He’s been a class act all the way and still was playing at a high level last season.

But McClure said it’s time to move on.

That means it also is time for the Falcons to move on. Replacing McClure’s leadership and experience won’t be easy. But the Falcons do have some other options at center and they’ve prepared for this moment by drafting Peter Konz and Joe Hawley in recent years.

The most likely scenario is Konz, who started at guard the second half of last season, shifting to center. That’s the position Konz played in college. If Konz makes the move, it could clear the way for Garrett Reynolds to move back in as a starting guard.

Reynolds began last season as a starter. But he suffered an injury and was replaced by Konz.

The Atlanta Falcons continue to follow through on their pledge to retain most of their own free agents.

The team just announced guard Garrett Reynolds has agreed to terms on a two-year contract. Reynolds could have become an unrestricted free agent.

Keeping Reynolds gives the Falcons flexibility on the offensive line. Reynolds started the first six games of last season at right guard before being placed on injured reserve. Rookie Peter Konz stepped in and played well. But Konz’s long-term future could be at center.

That means Reynolds has a chance to end up as a starting guard again. Reynolds also has the ability to play tackle. The Falcons still are trying to re-sign left tackle Sam Baker, who can become an unrestricted free agent Tuesday.

Time to check in on the most significant injuries for Sunday’s game involving NFC South teams.

New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham (ankle) will be a game-time decision, according to assistant head coach Joe Vitt. But Graham seemed to progress as the week went on and I think there’s a decent chance he’ll play Sunday at Denver. Vitt also said linebacker David Hawthorne (hamstring) will be a game-time decision. Hawthorne missed a lot more practice time than Graham, so it might be another week before we see him.

Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson (hip) is listed as probable. He’s going to have to play a lot because backup Antwan Applewhite (knee) is out and Thomas Keiser (elbow) is doubtful.

The Falcons declared receiver Harry Douglas (ankle/knee) will be out for Sunday’s game at Philadelphia. That means the Falcons will have to turn to either Drew Davis or Kevin Cone as their third receiver. Right guard Garrett Reynolds (back) is listed as questionable. That could clear the way for rookie Peter Konz to get his first start.

The Friday injury reports for Sunday’s games are out, so let’s take a look at the most significant injuries around the NFC South.

Atlanta is listing safety William Moore (hip), center Todd McClure (pectoral) and fullback Lousaka Polite (hamstring) as questionable. If Moore can’t go, veteran Chris Hope likely would get the start. If McClure is out, the Falcons could go with either Joe Hawley or Peter Konz. If Polite sits out, I’d expect to see some of Jason Snelling at fullback, but I’d also expect to see the Falcons do the same thing they did last week and use some reserve offensive linemen at fullback.

The Carolina Panthers could be without two key defensive players as they play Seattle. Middle linebacker Jon Beason (knee) and cornerback Chris Gamble (shoulder) did not practice Friday and are listed as doubtful. The Panthers could play it safe and start Jason Phillips in the middle. Or they could take a chance and move outside linebacker Luke Kuechly to the middle, where he played in college. Kuechly isn’t off to a great start and switching positions could make things more difficult for him. Second-year pro Josh Thomas is the likely alternative if Gamble can’t go.

Receiver Lance Moore and linebacker David Hawthorne have been ruled out for Sunday night’s game with San Diego. With Moore out, veteran Greg Camarillo, who was re-signed this week, should get some playing time. Hawthorne missed last week’s game and so did his backup, Jonathan Casillas. But Casillas is expected to play this week, so the Saints will have to choose between him and Will Herring.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a bye, so there is no injury report for them.

Thoughts on the Atlanta Falcons' 27-3 victory against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday:

What it means: This was a huge win on many levels. The Falcons are now 3-0 and in first place in the NFC South. But this one was about a lot more than simply adding to the division lead. This was a statement game for the Falcons, who were playing on a short week after defeating the Denver Broncos on "Monday Night Football" and then had to fly across the country to face a good team. Only good teams are capable of doing that and the evidence is starting to mount that the Falcons are a very good team.

Defense continues to shine: There’s no question the Atlanta defense was responsible for Monday night’s victory. There's no question it was very instrumental against the Chargers, who were unable to score a touchdown. The Falcons forced two first-half turnovers (an interception and a fumble recovery) and that allowed them to take control of the game. They finished the game with four takeaways. It’s kind of amazing how quickly and thoroughly new coordinator Mike Nolan has transformed this defense into a unit with an aggressive identity. Makes you wonder why Steve Spagunolo hasn’t been able to do anything even remotely close with the New Orleans defense he took over. The Falcons and Saints were battling to hire Nolan and Spagnuolo. I’m not sure who the first choice was in either place, but it certainly looks like the Falcons got the right guy.

Controlling the game: Aside from the 20-0 halftime score, the most amazing stat of the first two quarters was time of possession. The Falcons held the ball for 20:21, while the Chargers had it for only 9:24.

Matty Ice for MVP: It’s hard to argue that Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan isn’t a legitimate MVP candidate so far. Ryan only helped his case Sunday, completing 30 of 40 passes with three touchdowns. All three of those touchdowns came in the first half. Ryan has thrown for eight touchdown passes with only one interception. By the way, he also is undefeated.

Moore from Moore: After Monday night’s victory, I wrote that Atlanta safety William Moore had the game of his life. There wasn’t much of a letdown Sunday. Moore was steady in coverage and also forced and recovered a fumble late in the game. Fellow safety Thomas DeCoud also had another good game, coming up with two interceptions. I could see either Moore or DeCoud making the Pro Bowl. I could also see linebacker Sean Weatherspoon ending up there and maybe even linebacker Stephen Nicholas, who easily is off to the most productive start of his career. That’s pretty impressive because defensive end John Abraham is about the only Atlanta defensive player that has gotten any Pro Bowl consideration in recent years.

Roaming outside the dome: Since coach Mike Smith and Ryan have been around, there’s been a perception that the Falcons aren’t a very good outdoor team. Well, it might be time to rethink that. The Falcons won convincingly outdoors in San Diego and they did the same thing in the opener at Kansas City. The best news of all is that the Falcons only have four more outdoor games on their schedule. They play at Washington Oct. 7 and at Philadelphia on Oct. 28 and the weather in the Mid-Atlantic usually doesn’t get bad until later in the fall. The Falcons are at Tampa Bay Nov. 25 and November weather in Tampa is generally nice. The final outdoor game is Dec. 9 at Carolina. December weather in Charlotte can go either way, but going into North Carolina in December isn’t anything like going into Green Bay in December.

Memo to Smith and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter: Whatever that play was where you had rookie offensive lineman Peter Konz line up at fullback with 12:21 left in the fourth quarter, rip it out of your playbook. The Falcons also had two tight ends in on that formation and Ryan ended up throwing his first interception of the season on a red-zone pass intended for Tony Gonzalez. If you’re going to use that formation, run the ball because you don’t have enough receivers to spread out the defense.

Turner bounces back: Atlanta running back Michael Turner was quiet and ineffective in the first two weeks and he also had to deal with being charged with DUI early Tuesday morning. Turner got off to a slow start against the Chargers, but finished with 80 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Most of Turner’s rushing yards came in the second half. That’s something the Falcons need more of as the season goes on. If they can keep getting off to fast starts, they can use Turner and the running game to run down the clock later in the game. With Turner's contribution and some help from Jacquizz Rodgers and others, the Falcons finished with 119 rushing yards.

What’s next: The Falcons host the Carolina Panthers next Sunday at the Georgia Dome.

By now, you already know the Atlanta Falcons aren’t predicted to come in fourth, third or second place in the NFC South. They will win the division, according to the consensus of ESPN.com’s panel of experts.

Here’s the link to the Falcons’ preview page, and you’ll see there the panel was split in its thoughts on the Falcons. I had them finishing second and Adam Schefter ranked Atlanta third, but that wasn’t enough to pull the Falcons out of the top spot because every other panelist had them finishing first.

Here’s what I wrote about the Falcons:

Five things you need to know about the Falcons:

1. An all-new look: Although the Falcons have had four straight winning seasons, they are kind of starting over on offense and defense. They've got new coordinators in Dirk Koetter (offense) and Mike Nolan (defense), and it's clear there is a lot of pressure on the Falcons to win a playoff game for the first time since coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan arrived in town. With players such as Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers, Ryan has plenty of weapons. It's Koetter's job to figure out how to get more explosive plays out of this offense than predecessor Mike Mularkey. It's a similar story on defense, where Nolan inherits quite a bit of individual talent, but he needs this unit to establish a more aggressive identity than it had under Brian VanGorder.

2. The under-300 club: The Falcons repeatedly have said they want to limit Turner's carries and keep him fresh throughout the season. But that doesn't mean the Falcons suddenly will abandon the running game or Turner. You can bet Turner isn't going to get anywhere close to the 376 carries he had in 2008, but I still see him getting somewhere between 230 and 250 carries. The Falcons might throw the ball a little more often than in the past. But the difference will be made up by Rodgers. He didn't play a lot as a rookie, but the Falcons have big plans for him this season. He can do some things in the passing game that Turner can't, but Rodgers also is going to get some runs between the tackles.

3. It's all on the line: A lot of people talk about the pressure on Ryan and Smith. But I think the real pressure is on the offensive line. That unit was perhaps the most disappointing group last season. Ryan didn't throw the deep ball as much as the Falcons wanted, almost entirely because the offensive line couldn't protect him long enough. Other than bringing in offensive line coach Pat Hill and drafting Peter Konz, who might or might not start right away, the Falcons didn't have much turnover on the offensive line. The key is left tackle Sam Baker. He lost his starting job last season, but the Falcons say Baker was limited by injuries and is healthy now.

4. Help wanted: For far too long, Atlanta's pass rush has been defensive end John Abraham and not much else. That has to change, because Abraham is 34, and even if he has another good season, the Falcons need to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Defensive players have indicated they expect to blitz a lot more in Nolan's scheme. Linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas have enough quickness to be effective pass-rushers, and some members of the secondary will be asked to blitz at times. But the real key will be defensive end Ray Edwards. He didn't produce much after signing as a free agent last year. But as with Baker, the Falcons say Edwards wasn't healthy last season and is now.

5. What's left in the tank? After the Falcons traded for Asante Samuel, there was a report that Philadelphia coach Andy Reid parted with the veteran cornerback because he sensed a steep decline. Samuel has taken exception to that, and the Falcons wouldn't have made the move if their personnel people sensed a serious problem. The Falcons aren't looking for Samuel to be the player he was five years ago. They just want him to be a role player as another strong cover corner to go with Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson.

I saw some signs the Atlanta Falcons can be the team they want to be in Thursday night’s 24-19 preseason loss to Cincinnati.

There were some explosive plays on offense, a turnover created by the first-team defense, some steady pressure by defensive end Ray Edwards and even a few screen passes.

Quarterback Matt Ryan played until midway through the second quarter and the rest of the starters were done by halftime when the Falcons led 13-10. Not much mattered after that, but there were lots of encouraging signs from the starters. Let’s run through some observations:

• Ryan’s numbers (18-of-21 for 174 yards and a touchdown) look spectacular and he completed his first 11 pass attempts. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Ryan’s first eight passes were mostly short ones and he didn’t have a long completion until connecting with Roddy White for a 24-yard gain on his ninth pass. He followed that with a 21-yard pass to Tony Gonzalez and later had a downfield completion in traffic to Julio Jones. Ryan seemed under pressure early, but the offensive line seemed to settle down as time went on. Ryan also missed slightly on a deep throw for Jones. The ball was well thrown, but it went off Jones’ fingertips.

• In his first two preseason games, Ryan has completed 27 of 34 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns.

• Speaking of the offensive line, Garrett Reynolds got another start at right guard and it looks like he could remain there. There had been thought that rookie Peter Konz would overtake him. But Konz went down with an apparent leg injury in the third quarter. Konz did return to the game, but it remains to be seen if he'll be healthy enough to play in the third preseason game. If Konz doesn't start in the third preseason game, then the starting job likely belongs to Reynolds.

• Ewards, who played hurt and wasn’t productive last year, was a definite factor against the Bengals. I saw him get good pressure on Andy Dalton once and he also chased down a ball carrier in the backfield.

• Speaking of maligned defensive linemen, former first-round pick Peria Jerry continues to play well. He’s starting in place of the injured Corey Peters. Jerry had a sack on Dalton, although he did get called for a late hit two plays earlier. Still, it was nice to see Jerry show some of the skills that made him a first-round pick. If he keeps playing the way he has been, he might have a chance to move ahead of Peters or at least get significant time in the rotation.

• Jerry wasn’t the only interior lineman producing pressure. Jonathan Babineaux sacked Dalton, but the play was nullified when Babineaux was called for a face-mask penalty. I watched the replay several times and saw no indication that Babineaux’s hand ever got close to Dalton’s face mask. I think the replacement refs botched that call.

• Thomas DeCoud and William Moore have made some noise that they believe they can be one of the best safety tandems in the league this year. That seems like a long shot, if you go simply by what they’ve done in the past. But there was a moment against the Bengals when it looked like that could become a reality. Moore stripped the ball from running back Brian Leonard and DeCoud quickly pounced on the fumble.

• The Falcons appear to be very serious about throwing more to their running backs. Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers and Lousaka Polite each caught passes. Polite, who recently was signed to provide depth at fullback, caught a short touchdown pass. I’m not sure I want to see too many passes to Turner and Polite in the regular season because I don’t see either of the making big plays after the catch. But I think Rodgers has the skill to do that and he should be targeted often. Also, Rodgers had a very nice run between the tackles in the second quarter. A lot of people think Rodgers can’t run between the tackles because he’s short. But the Falcons believe Rodgers is thick enough to run up the middle and I think you’ll see a fair amount of that this year.

• Speaking of Rodgers, he also got a long look at punt returner and kickoff returner. The highlight was a 29-yard punt returner, before giving way to Dominique Franks, who is competing for the job as the punt returner. Rodgers is competing for the kickoff return job with his brother, James.

• I saw some good and bad things out of cornerback Asante Samuel. He did a nice job going up with A.J. Green for a pass and breaking it up. But Samuel also got beat badly by Green on a 55-yard touchdown pass. Samuel sat on a short route, looking like he thought he could jump in and intercept. But Green took off downfield and left Samuels to chase him.

• I keep liking what I see out of undrafted rookie quarterback Dominique Davis. He throws well and is athletic. He might be raw, but I think the Falcons could develop him into something if they keep him around. I think Davis could be an upgrade over No. 3 quarterback John Parker Wilson. Davis looked great with the fourth team. The Falcons might be wise to give him a look with the second or third team in the final two preseason games.

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- As you first watch and listen to the Atlanta Falcons in training camp, you quickly realize something is different.

They’ve got a bunch of marquee players (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner, John Abraham and Asante Samuel), but the buzz isn’t about them. Instead, most of the talk is about two new assistant coaches -- offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. That’s understandable, because a lot of people thought the Falcons needed some major changes after they got thumped by the New York Giants in the first round of last season’s playoffs.

With offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey (now head coach in Jacksonville) and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder (now defensive coordinator at Auburn) leaving, Koetter and Nolan are big storylines. They might not have star power all by themselves, but watch and listen a little more and you’ll see the two new coaches have plenty of star power behind them.

“Mike Nolan and Dirk Koetter have done a fine job of bringing their respective systems to the table and working with (coach) Mike Smith and the rest of the staff and developing a system that is melding well with all of our coaching opinions,’’ general manager Thomas Dimitroff said. “It’s a collaborative effort. It’s not just one stamp from one coordinator or the other. It’s been really interesting seeing everyone come together on the respective sides of the football to develop this new system.’’

In conversations with Smith and Dimitroff, each repeatedly emphasized that key players (the guys listed above and a few others) have had extensive input into what the Falcons will do on each side of the ball. As soon as league rules allowed coaches and players to get together in the offseason, Ryan and Koetter began meeting regularly and discussing what the playbook should look like.

“There are a lot of things we’ve done well over the last few years, and the first thing Dirk asked me was what I liked and what I felt most comfortable with,’’ Ryan said. “Then, we took the things I said and looked at our production in those situations and some of it was surprising because we didn’t have as much success as I would have thought in some of the things I said I was most comfortable with, and we had some pretty good success with some of the things I didn’t necessarily think I liked.

"We also watched a lot of film of Jacksonville (where Koetter was offensive coordinator last year), and we talked a lot about why they did certain things at certain times. There was a lot of very good give-and-take. He’s extremely open to input, which is great for players, and I know he sat down and did the same thing with some other guys. But he also has his own opinions and is firm on his own opinions, and I like that about him.’’

The Falcons have been very public about some of the ways their offense will change. They said they don’t want Turner having to endure a 300-carry season. They said they want to use the screen pass more, after almost completely ignoring it in recent years. And they’ve made it very clear that they want to improve their downfield passing game.

What the actual playbook looks like is likely to be a combination of what both Koetter and the Falcons have done in the past.

The changes on defense are likely to be similar because Nolan also has consulted extensively with his key players. Nolan has spent 14 years as a defensive coordinator in the NFL, seven of them in the 4-3 defense and seven in the 3-4. The Falcons will continue to use the 4-3 as their base, but there could be some 3-4 looks and principles.

“We just have a lot of different things that we can do,’’ outside linebacker Sean Weatherspoon said. “We’re going to be aggressive. We’re not being passive at all. Our mindset is that we want to go out there and dictate. We don’t want to adjust to what an offense is doing. We want to put it on them to make changes.’’

That would be a change from the VanGorder days, when the Falcons had some individual talent and a fair amount of overall success, but never really had an identity as a defense. The Falcons will be different on both sides of the ball.

“When you have new eyes, so to speak, you get a different view,’’ Smith said. “We may have had a view that this guy’s strengths are A, B and C and his weaknesses are D, E and F, and a new guy comes in and, because he’s coming from a different perspective, he sees it differently. I think that’s interesting in terms of evaluating your roster because you have two new sets of eyes.’’

Maybe the eyes will have it. Maybe the new coordinators and new playbooks will be enough to help the Falcons win a playoff game for the first time since Smith, Dimitroff and Ryan arrived in 2008.

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. The running game with Turner’s limit on carries. Despite all the talk about the downfield passing game, I don’t think the Falcons want to suddenly just abandon the running game. Turner still is powerful and can help open things up for the passing game. The Falcons just don’t want to wear him out. They’ve used Jason Snelling at times to give Turner some rest, and Snelling will be involved again this season. But I don’t think he’s really the guy the Falcons are looking at to pick up a big chunk of Turner’s carries.

I’m almost certain they have big plans for second-year pro Jacquizz Rodgers, and I think those plans might be a lot bigger than people realize. That’s largely because Rodgers is bigger than the Falcons realized when they drafted him last year.

“Jacquizz is not little,’’ Smith said. “He’s short, but he’s thick. People projected him to be a third-down back, a change-of-pace back. I think the guy has the skill set to play on all three downs. One of the things that stood out to me more than anything is his ability to pass protect. A lot of times, your change-of-pace back, you’ve got to get him the ball and not ask him to be a part of the protection. I don’t think that’s the case with Jacquizz. I think Jacquizz is an all-around back that can play on all three downs.’’

Translation: The Falcons aren’t looking for Rodgers to be what Jerious Norwood once was. They want him to be more like what Warrick Dunn once was.

2. Positive reinforcement. I don’t know if they were veiled shots at Mularkey, VanGorder and former middle linebacker and defensive leader Curtis Lofton, but I think it was significant that Smith and Dimitroff repeatedly used the word “positive’’ when they talked about the coaching styles of Koetter and Nolan, and as they talked about the leadership qualities Samuel brings, and what kind of leader they expect Weatherspoon to become.

“Sean is such a positive guy,’’ Smith said. “He is vocal, but he’s never negative in the way he speaks. He’s always very positive.’’

Samuel was described in the same way. So were Nolan and Koetter.

I never sensed a lot of negativity from Mularkey, VanGorder or Lofton, but I also never sensed any of them were rah-rah guys. It sure seems like Smith and Dimitroff feel their team needed more positive reinforcement.

3. The pass rush. For far too long, Atlanta’s pass rush has consisted of Abraham and almost nothing else. Maybe fellow defensive end Ray Edwards steps up after an injury-filled season that limited him to 3.5 sacks. Or maybe reserves Lawrence Sidbury and Kroy Biermann produce more. But I get the sense Nolan isn’t looking to have only defensive ends rush the passer.

“The way practice is going right now, we’re really excited about getting the linebackers more involved in rushing the passer,’’ Weatherspoon said. “Even in seven-on-seven, we’re going. That will help those guys out there on the edge because now offenses are going to have to account for us all day. It’ll be better because we’ll be able to keep them on their heels.’’

And it won’t be just the linebackers. Look for the cornerbacks and safeties to also get plenty of opportunities to blitz.

REASON FOR OPTIMISM

Time to fly. A lot of great young quarterbacks have seemed to hit a wall early in their careers. Even Peyton Manning had a reputation for not being able to win the big one early in his career, and look how that’s worked out. I’m not saying Ryan is going to turn into the second coming of Manning, but I think this is the year in which Ryan finally can earn a firm spot in the category of elite quarterbacks.

The guy has done some very good things in his first four seasons and he’s worked very hard to bulk up this offseason, so that he’s not worn down when the playoffs roll around. Ryan has a good arm, excellent mental skills and a strong work ethic. But, for some reason, he just hasn’t been able to take the next step. Last year, the Falcons brought in Jones to give him another weapon to go with White and Gonzalez. This year, they brought in Koetter, who has obvious instructions to get the most out of Ryan’s skills.

When you keep doing things the right way, sooner or later it’s all bound to click.

REASON FOR PESSIMISM

The offensive line. This was a big problem spot last year. Ryan frequently didn’t have enough time to throw the deep ball. The Falcons got rid of offensive line coach Paul Boudreau and replaced him with Pat Hill, who has a nice history with offensive lines. They also used their second-round pick on guard Peter Konz.

But were those two moves enough to bring dramatic improvement up front? Should the Falcons really be sticking with Sam Baker at left tackle? And even if they want to give Baker another shot, shouldn’t they at least have brought in a viable alternative in case he struggles?

I know a lot of fans think the Falcons should have done more up front. But the Falcons think they’ve done enough. We’ll find out who is right soon enough.

OBSERVATION DECK

• The Falcons lost a steady return man when Eric Weems left as a free agent. They’ve thrown out a lot of names, including some undrafted rookies, as candidates to take Weems’ spot as the punt and kickoff returner. But this is a team with a lot at stake this season, and I don’t see the Falcons handing either job to an untested rookie. I think they play it safe and go with third receiver Harry Douglas as their punt returner. He could also be an option on kickoff returns. If not, reserve cornerbacks Dominique Franks and Christopher Owens, as well as Rodgers, could be possibilities.
• Ever since he was drafted in 2010, I’ve been expecting to see some flash from wide receiver Kerry Meier. Part of that is because the Atlanta coaches still talk about the former college quarterback as a guy that can play just about any position. Meier missed his rookie season with an injury and didn’t get a lot of playing time last year. But I did see him make a couple of nice catches in camp and also saw him getting work as the backup holder on field goals and extra points. Meier may have a tough time getting much playing time at wide receiver because the Falcons are so deep. But Koetter might be able to throw off some defenses by lining up Meier at H-back, fullback and tight end at various times.
• I don’t want to raise hopes artificially, but I saw defensive tackle Peria Jerry working with the first-team defense while I was at camp. He seemed to show a little of the burst that made him a first-round pick in 2009. But Jerry tore up his knee early in his rookie season and has been reduced to a role player. He’s getting the first-team work because Corey Peters is temporarily sidelined with an injury. Peters’ starting job will be there when he gets back. But the Falcons would get a tremendous boost if Jerry can give them some production as a backup.
• Veteran center Todd McClure has been getting all the first-team work early in camp. But I think the Falcons would be wise to take a long look at Joe Hawley and maybe even start him in a preseason game or two. McClure is 35, and there is no question he’s slowing down. I can see a scenario in which McClure wears out or gets hurt as the season goes on, and Hawley gets thrown into the starting lineup. The better long-term approach might be to go with Hawley as the starter and have McClure as a fallback option.
• I don’t know what the Falcons are going to do about a No. 3 tight end after Gonzalez and Michael Palmer. They have six tight ends in camp. At least while I was there, the one that seemed to stand out was Tommy Gallarda. He looks like he can catch the ball a bit. More importantly, he’s 6-foot-5 and 259 pounds and looks like he can block.
• A lot of fans are excited about third-round pick Lamar Holmes. They believe he could end up beating out Baker for the starting left tackle job in training camp. That’s not going to happen. The Falcons are going to give Baker every benefit of the doubt. If he’s injured or really struggles, they’ll turn to Will Svitek. Holmes is viewed as a project, and it could be a couple of years before he gets on the field.
• Since the arrival of Samuel, the common assumption among many fans is that Dunta Robinson will be the nickelback and Samuel will start opposite Brent Grimes. That’s not as automatic as most think. Yes, Robinson will play the nickel position, lining up inside against slot receivers on passing downs. But that doesn’t mean Robinson won’t be starting and playing the outside on running downs. Samuel’s age, 31, is a concern, and the Falcons may not want to overuse him. They may start Robinson and, when they go to the nickel package, insert Samuel on the outside and slide Robinson inside.

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. – Falcons coach Mike Smith termed the release of veteran guard Vince Manuwai as a "football decision.''

The translation there is simple. Manuwai, who sat out last season and spent part of his career with Smith in Jacksonville, wasn’t injured. The Falcons simply decided they like what they’ve seen out of their younger guards early in training camp and they’re going to go in that direction.

Garrett Reynolds, who started seven games at right guard last season, seemed to get most of the first-team work during Saturday afternoon’s practice. But rookie Peter Konz, Joe Hawley, Mike Johnson and Andrew Jackson also are in the mix. Hawley also can play center, while Johnson also can play tackle.

“We’ve got a real competitive situation across the board on the offensive line,’’ Smith said. “I think you’ll notice that we’re rolling the guys. They’re not all going out right now, first team or second team. We’re going to roll them in and out, look at the different combinations and come up with the best combination of seven offensive linemen. That’s important, it’s not just the first five, but seven offensive linemen because you’ve got to have the backups cross-train. We’ve got to have a second snapper, an emergency snapper. We’ve got to have tackles that can play guard and guards that can play center.’’

Left guard Justin Blalock and right tackle Tyson Clabo might be the only guys who are penciled in as starters right now. The Falcons also are hoping left tackle Sam Baker can bounce back from the injuries that hampered him last season. If not, Will Svitek could be an option. Veteran Todd McClure is the incumbent starter at center. But McClure is 35 and, if he’s showing signs of slowing down, Hawley could be a candidate to start at center.

Some other quick notes out of Saturday’s practice:

• Brent Grimes, who is carrying the franchise tag, might have another role than just playing cornerback: He has been getting some work as a punt returner. That’s a job that’s wide open after the departure of Eric Weems via free agency. Smith said wide receiver Harry Douglas and cornerback Dominique Franks also have been fielding some punts. Smith said he also may look at some young players on punt returns soon.

• The play of the day came on a jump ball between two of Atlanta’s best athletes. Grimes had good coverage on a pass that was thrown high for wide receiver Julio Jones. Grimes, whose vertical leap has been measured at more than 40 inches, went up as high as he could. But Jones, who also has some spring in his legs, came down with the ball.

• The runner-up for play of the day came from a surprising combination. Backup quarterback Chris Redman hooked up with undrafted free agent Kenny Stafford on a touchdown pass of about 45 yards.

• Speaking of backup quarterbacks and undrafted free agents, I was pretty impressed by the arm strength of Dominique Davis from East Carolina. He can throw the heck out of the ball. But the potential problem I see is that every pass comes at full speed and there’s not a lot of touch.

• The Falcons are currently carrying six tight ends. Veteran Tony Gonzalez is the starter and Michael Palmer did some good things last season. But the third roster spot at tight end appears to be up for grabs. There’s a lot of camp and four preseason games ahead that will determine a lot. But I did see Tommy Gallarda make one very nice catch in traffic over the middle.

• I got some one-on-one time with veteran defensive end John Abraham, who touched on a lot of subjects (including his thoughts on new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, his decision to return to Atlanta after testing free agency, his belief that maligned teammate Ray Edwards is ready for a big season and some other things). I’ll share those with you over the coming days. I’ll be back out Sunday and Monday, watching the Falcons practice and doing interviews, and we’ll run their Camp Confidential profile later next week.

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- So much for that Atlanta free-agent class of 2012. It basically is all gone.

Moments before hitting the practice field, the Falcons announced they have released guard Vince Manuwai. That comes after the Falcons released middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu, who suffered a season-ending injury.

Manuwai and Tatupu both sat out last season and signed with the Falcons this spring. Atlanta drew lots of criticism for not being more active in free agency. They didn’t give big money to Tatupu or Manuwai because both were older and had a history of injuries. The Falcons also viewed the two veterans as short-term solutions, at best.

We’ll find out more on Manuwai’s release after practice. But I think it’s fair to speculate that the Falcons decided to stick with a group of young interior linemen that they have stockpiled. They drafted guard/center Peter Konz in the second round this year. They also have Joe Hawley, Garrett Reynolds and Mike Johnson. It’s likely the Falcons will let those guys compete for the starting guard job opposite Justin Blalock.

I’m off to the practice field and will be back with more in a few hours.

The Panthers, Buccaneers and Saints have completed their minicamps.

The Atlanta Falcons are next. They’ll hold their minicamp Tuesday through Thursday and then break until the start of training camp. It’s kind of fitting that the Falcons chose to do their minicamp the latest of the four in the NFC South. This offseason, the Falcons elected to take a different path than the Panthers and Bucs. And the Falcons certainly didn’t have to deal with any of the things the Saints had thrown at them.

Atlanta has had -- by far -- the quietest and calmest offseason in the NFC South. The Falcons chose to re-sign most of their own free agents and not pursue any big names from the outside. They didn’t have a first-round draft pick and their only major move was trading for cornerback Asante Samuel. There is a school of thought within the Falcons that they already had a pretty good roster and the additions of coordinators Mike Nolan and Dirk Koetter could be all that’s needed for this team to start winning postseason games.

But that doesn’t mean the Falcons are completely sitting still. There might not be much drama, but the Falcons have some things that have to be settled between now and the start of the regular season. Let’s take a look at a few hot spots.

The offensive line: This was a problem area last year, as the Falcons weren’t able to protect quarterback Matt Ryan well enough to allow him to successfully throw a lot of deep balls. The Falcons know that has to change and they used their second-round draft pick on guard/center Peter Konz and a third-round choice on tackle Lamar Holmes. Konz is very much in the mix for a starting job immediately. Holmes won’t be fully healthy until training camp, but it’s not all that realistic to expect a third-round choice to start immediately at tackle because Tyson Clabo is set on the right side and the Falcons don’t want a rookie trying to protect Ryan’s blind side to open the season. The Falcons seem ready to give Sam Baker another chance at left tackle. They believe injuries held him back last year and that he’s healthy now.

If not, the Falcons might have to turn back to Will Svitek, who took Baker’s job last season. Aside from Clabo, guard Justin Blalock is the only certain starter on the offensive line. The Falcons have been working Konz at guard and he likely will stay there because he’s taller (6-foot-5) than the prototype center. If Konz shows he’s ready to start, the Falcons will let Joe Hawley compete with veteran center Todd McClure. Although McClure’s been the line’s leader for a long time, he’s nearing the end of his career and the Falcons would like to get younger on the line.

The pass rush: Veteran defensive end John Abraham still produced 9.5 sacks last season and the Falcons are betting he can have another similar season. But they need more than Abraham. Ray Edwards, Kroy Biermann, Lawrence Sidbury and Jonathan Massaquoi are being watched closely and there is hope that one, or several, of them can impact the pass rush. But I think Nolan is going to have to get creative and bring some blitzes to really have much of a chance at disrupting passing games.

Jacquizz Rodgers: The Falcons repeatedly have said they plan to limit Michael Turner's carries. They also have said they want to get Rodgers, a second-year pro, more involved in the offense. Rodgers needs to use minicamp, training camp and the preseason to show he’s ready for an increased role. Koetter also will have to be creative in carving out that role. Turner’s a power back and Rodgers is a speed back. The previous offense didn’t have a lot of things designed for speed backs. But Koetter fared pretty well with Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville, so I’m sure he’s got some new twists for Rodgers.

A lot of rookies will make an immediate impact in 2012. Here are six to watch in the NFC South.

Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina: Kuechly will be many experts’ choice for the 2012 defensive rookie of the year. I get that and really can’t argue that selection. The No. 9 pick should start from day one at middle linebacker or on the weak side.

James Anderson should be pretty safe as the Panthers’ starting strongside linebacker, but Jon Beason and Thomas Davis are returning from season-ending injuries. Considering Davis' extensive injury history, it doesn’t seem wise to count on him -- although he’s a heck of a player when healthy. Beason is a team leader and when right, one of the better linebackers in the league. Like Kuechly, Beason is able to line up in the middle or on the weak side -- maybe even at strongside linebacker considering the Panthers’ great overall skills at the position.

But I am confident Kuechly will quickly find a starting spot -- and probably won’t relinquish it for years to come. He is an every-down linebacker who excels in coverage. Kuechly is always around football, takes excellent angles to the ball carrier and is a very sound tackler. This is a very productive player. My biggest worry about Kuechly is the group playing in front of him. The Panthers are quite weak at defensive tackle and the overall ability of this defensive line to protect Carolina’s linebackers gives me some pause.

Amini Silatolu, OL, Carolina: The Panthers’ second-round pick arrives to the NFL from a tiny college football program, Midwestern State, where he was the left tackle. So why do I expect Silatolu to make an instant impact? Because he is a big-time prospect who is ideally suited for guard at this level. Carolina will be getting Jeff Otah back at right tackle, a massive powerful run-blocker.

Silatolu is in the same mold as Otah with an abundance of size, physicality and utter nastiness. Silatolu should open the season as the starting left guard between Jordan Gross at left tackle and Ryan Kalil at center. The vastly underrated Geoff Hangartner will start at right guard, giving the Panthers what should be one of the very best offensive lines in the NFL. Silatolu will have some growing pains and the preseason might not always be pretty, as the jump in competition is greater for him than most NFL rookies, but I expect him to solidify a great line and get better and better as the season progresses. It might not be long before Silatolu is among the better guards in the entire league.

Peter Konz, G, Atlanta: Konz was a steal for the Falcons with the 55th pick. He should be an instant starter and upgrade at right guard, a position that was a massive problem for Atlanta in 2011. Konz is best at center but should do quite well at guard, assuming he can stay healthy. Injuries have been a problem for Konz and are the main reason he fell so far in the draft.

Over time, I am sure Atlanta expects Konz to take over as the leader of its offensive line and inherit the starting center job from Todd McClure, who is now 35 years old. Konz has excellent size and long arms, especially for a center. He isn’t overpowering, but he uses his bulk well and should continue to get stronger. Konz moves well too, but isn’t exceptional in this area. He could stand to use his hands better, but that is coachable. Overall, Konz is a very NFL-ready prospect who should help to shore up one of the weakest areas of the Falcons’ roster.

Mark Barron, S, Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay moved back at the top of the draft and ended up grabbing Barron with the No. 7 selection. Many thought that was too early for Barron. That is understandable. He is not a rare athletic safety specimen like Eric Berry, Earl Thomas or Sean Taylor -- other early selections at the position. But Barron is very NFL-ready, versatile, a big-time leader and a great fit in today’s NFL that is loaded with freak-of-nature tight ends such as the Saints’ Jimmy Graham, who obviously resides in the division.

The Bucs were very light at safety before this draft and there were few elite prospects from which to pick. Tampa Bay will ask Barron to do a lot of different things in terms of his alignment, coverage responsibilities, blitzing and run support. Barron can handle a deep-half assignment as well as doing battle with wide receivers, tight ends and running backs in man coverage. Barron also will spend plenty of time near the line of scrimmage and is an excellent run-support defender and tackler. Barron’s leadership, intellect and feel for the game might be his best qualities. The Bucs’ defense desperately needs a major infusion of all those traits.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay: As I noted earlier in my blog post about the NFC South running backs, I fully expect Martin to take over the lead back spot in Tampa Bay before very long. Martin is exactly what Greg Schiano is looking for at the position.

The Buccaneers will be a run-first team and have invested quite a bit in their offensive line to pave the way. A great interior runner who also is very effective outside the tackles and as a receiver, Martin is in line for a lot of touches. The Buccaneers did not trade back into the first round to select a running back to not use him. And because LeGarrette Blount is a liability in the passing game, the door is wide open for Martin to thrive.

Schiano believes in bludgeoning his opponents with a powerful running game and a back who can do a lot of things well. The Bucs will then surely take shots deep downfield, most likely to newly acquired receiver Vincent Jackson, off play-action to utilize Josh Freeman’s great arm strength. In the passing game, Martin should be very friendly to Freeman as both a dump-off option when the quarterback is in trouble and as a schemed option to get Martin matched up against opposing linebackers.

Lavonte David, LB Tampa Bay: David could be every bit as impactful as the two teammates drafted ahead of him. At No. 58 overall, David is the lowest-drafted player on this list. Without much competition on the Buccaneers’ roster, David should grab the starting weakside linebacker job by the throat. He is perfectly suited for this role in Tampa Bay’s scheme, and he is extremely well-equipped to immediately handle all the coverage responsibilities of an every-down linebacker at this level.

Undersized but very fast, David is a missile to the ball carrier. Like Kuechly, David is extremely active and productive. He isn’t 49 draft picks worse than Kuechly and might even be in a better situation to make an instant impact. Keep an eye on David -- he might just surpass Kuechly and every other defensive rookie to claim that defensive rookie of the year honor. Tampa Bay paid a heavy price to trade up to land David, but I think it will pay off nicely.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com. Follow Matt Williamson on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL.

Did the Falcons do enough to get tough enough up front?

The Falcons went hard after offensive linemen in the draft. They took Wisconsin guard/center Peter Konz in the second round and Southern Mississippi tackle Lamar Holmes in the third. They also added guard Vince Manuwai in free agency.

The plan seems to be to throw Konz and Manuwai out there with guard Justin Blalock, center Todd McClure, guard Garrett Reynolds and guard/center Joe Hawley. The Falcons will let them all compete in training camp and and then decide which combination gives them the best interior. Konz probably will emerge as a starter, and either he or Hawley could replace McClure, who is aging fast. That should improve the interior of the offensive line, but what about the outside? Left tackle Sam Baker struggled last season, and the fact that Holmes was sitting there in the third round is a pretty good indicator that he’s not ready to step in and be a stud left tackle.

If the Falcons really are serious about throwing downfield more, they have to give quarterback Matt Ryan more time. The Falcons still may have to add a left tackle (Marcus McNeill) to compete with Baker if they really want to solidify their offensive line.

Speaking of solidifying lines, the Falcons haven’t done much on the defensive side, and that also was a problem area last year. They brought back veteran defensive end John Abraham, but they don’t have any other especially strong pass-rushers. I wouldn’t count on an immediate impact from fifth-round pick Jonathan Massaquoi. Guys like Ray Edwards, Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury have to step up, or the Falcons have to go try to find a pass-rusher in what remains of free agency.

After acquiring Wisconsin guard/center Peter Konz in the second round, the Atlanta Falcons have moved ahead of the New Orleans Saints. At least that’s the way the voters see it in our post-draft power rankings.

The Falcons moved up to No. 12, one spot better than in our March 20 rankings. The Saints dropped to No. 13, two spots below where they were in March.

I’m just guessing here, since I don’t have a vote, but I really don’t think the draft had all that much of an impact. I’m guessing all the turmoil surrounding the Saints, including possible player suspensions for the bounty program, are the real reasons New Orleans tumbled in the eyes of the voters. Let’s keep in mind, no matter what happens with possible player suspensions, the Saints still will have an explosive offense -- as long as Drew Brees’ contract situation gets resolved.

I am a little surprised that Carolina and Tampa Bay didn’t come out of the draft looking better in the eyes of the voters. The Panthers drafted linebacker Luke Kuechly in the first round and he should help improve their defense. But, somehow, the Panthers who were ranked No. 18 in March, dropped to No. 21. I don’t get that one at all.

Tampa Bay, which added likely starters Mark Barron, Doug Martin and Lavonte David, stayed at No. 24 --the same spot they were in back in March. I don’t get that one either.