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AFC

CLINCHED: New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.

Houston Texans -- South Division.

Baltimore Ravens -- wild-card spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild-card spot.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) NE win or tie

2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:

1) BAL win

2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie

3) PIT loss

Baltimore clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) BAL win + NE loss

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie

2) PIT tie + BAL loss

Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

DENVER BRONCOS

Denver clinches AFC West Division:

1) DEN win

2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie

3) OAK loss

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland clinches AFC West Division:

1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie

2) OAK tie + DEN loss

Oakland clinches a wild-card spot:

1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:

1) CIN win or tie

2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

NEW YORK JETS

NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:

1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

TENNESSEE TITANS

Tennessee clinches a wild-card spot:

1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie

2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie

3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

NFC

CLINCHED: Green Bay Packers -- North Division and home-field advantage.

San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.

New Orleans Saints -- wild-card spot.

Detroit Lions -- wild-card spot.

Atlanta Falcons -- wild-card spot.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay clinched home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:

1) SF win

2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie

3) one NO loss

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:

1) one NO win or tie

2) one ATL loss or tie

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:

1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie

2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

NEW YORK GIANTS

NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:

1) NYG win or tie

DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas clinches NFC East Division:

1) DAL win

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:

1) two ATL wins + two NO losses

The NFL has announced that the Jan. 1 game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been “flexed’’ to 4:15 p.m. ET.

I’m guessing it’s not because the league wants to drag out Raheem Morris’ tenure for three more hours. I think it has more to do with the fact that the Falcons could be playing a game that decides where they’ll be seeded in the playoffs. The game initially was scheduled to air on FOX at 1 p.m. ET.

The league also said in the release that the Jan. 1 game between Carolina and New Orleans, which is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Fox, could be flexed. But the league said no decision on that will come until after the Saints play the Falcons on Monday night.

By the way, here’s an updated list of playoff scenarios.

AFC

CLINCHED: New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.

Houston Texans -- South Division.

Baltimore Ravens -- wild-card spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild-card spot.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) NE win or tie

2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:

1) BAL win

2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie

3) PIT loss

Baltimore clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) BAL win + NE loss

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie

2) PIT tie + BAL loss

Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:

1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

DENVER BRONCOS

Denver clinches AFC West Division:

1) DEN win

2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie

3) OAK loss

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Oakland clinches AFC West Division:

1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie

2) OAK tie + DEN loss

Oakland clinches a wild-card spot:

1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:

1) CIN win or tie

2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

NEW YORK JETS

NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:

1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie

2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

TENNESSEE TITANS

Tennessee clinches a wild-card spot:

1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie

2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie

3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

NFC

CLINCHED: Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.

San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.

New Orleans Saints -- wild-card spot.

Detroit Lions -- wild-card spot.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:

1) one GB win or tie

2) SF loss or tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:

1) SF win

2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie

3) one NO loss

San Francisco clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:

1) SF win + two GB losses

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:

1) one NO win or tie

2) one ATL loss or tie

New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:

1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie

2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

NEW YORK GIANTS

NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:

1) NYG win or tie

DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas clinches NFC East Division:

1) DAL win

ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:

1) two ATL wins + two NO losses

Atlanta clinches a wild-card spot:

1) one ATL win or tie

2) one CHI loss or tie

CHICAGO BEARS

Chicago clinches a wild-card spot:

1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

With Detroit and Dallas leading by wide margins, the Seattle Seahawks' playoff chances are flickering.

The team would need to come back from a 16-10 deficit to beat San Francisco, then defeat Arizona in Week 17. Chicago would have to win its final two games. Atlanta would have to lose its final two games.

That would produce a three-way tie for the wild-card berth, and Seattle would prevail on a tiebreaker.

Thanks to Jeremy Mills of ESPN Stats & Information for helping with the scenarios. He's grinding through all of them for all playoff-eligible teams in the league. Seattle just blocked a punt and will take over deep in 49ers territory.

Note: Seattle just took the lead.

If the playoffs started right now, the NFC South would have two representatives.

The Atlanta Falcons would be the No. 5 seed. The Falcons and Lions both are 9-5, but Detroit would be the No. 6 seed because the Falcons won a head-to-head meeting.

The 11-3 New Orleans Saints also would be in, but we can’t really say where they’d be seeded just yet. It could be No. 2 or No. 3. But the San Francisco 49ers are 10-3 and don’t play until Monday night.

The Saints can clinch the NFC South title if they beat the Falcons next week. At the moment, the Falcons would play No. 4 Dallas in the first round.

Here’s a look at how the playoff situations stand for both conferences right now.

And here’s our playoff Machine, where you can run all sorts of possible scenarios.

The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals kept alive their playoff hopes by improving their records to 7-7 with victories Sunday.

Both teams need help even if one of them wins its final two games, including a Week 17 matchup between the NFC West rivals.

We know this: Four NFC division champions and two wild-card teams will qualify for postseason. Green Bay, San Francisco and New Orleans are headed to the playoffs. Atlanta and Detroit already have nine victories apiece, so if each goes 1-1 or better to finish the season, Arizona and Seattle are out.

Atlanta plays at New Orleans and home against Tampa Bay. It's likely the Falcons will win one of those. Detroit plays at home against San Diego and on the road against Green Bay in a game the Packers might not need to win, particularly now that an unbeaten season is out of the question.

Lots of scenarios come into play if Seattle or Arizona finish 9-7 and get some help. Tie games are another possibility to consider.

I've used the ESPN Playoff Machine to produce a few outcomes of interest in the NFC. This one would send Seattle to the playoffs. This one would send Arizona.

A few thoughts after the Seattle Seahawks improved to 7-7 with a 38-14 victory at the Chicago Bears in Week 15:

• One or the other: Seattle or Arizona can earn a wild-card berth in the NFC playoffs if one of them finishes 9-7. No scenario would send both teams to the playoffs. They play one another in Week 17.
• Help wanted: Neither the Seahawks nor Cardinals control whether they will make the playoffs. Both teams need help to reach the postseason. Atlanta appears likely to clinch one of two wild-card berths. Detroit has a good shot at securing the other one. Both teams will emerge from Week 15 with more victories than Seattle or Arizona.
• Potential scenarios: ESPN's NFL Playoff Machine lets users see which teams would emerge with playoff berths based on various scenarios. This one has Seattle missing the playoffs at 9-7 and Arizona missing at 8-8. On this similar one, I gave Oakland a victory over Detroit, allowing the Seahawks to reach the postseason at 9-7. But if that scenario changes to include an Arizona victory over Seattle, the Cardinals would go to the playoffs at 9-7. Round and round we go.

More to come as the late games conclude.

Thoughts on the Seattle Seahawks' and Arizona Cardinals' playoff chances after taking a spin through the ESPN Playoff Machine:

• Playoff Machine

  
  

  Check current playoff seedings and figure scenarios through the end of the season. Playoff Machine | Scenarios
  

  The Falcons made things simpler. The Falcons already have nine victories. They face Tampa Bay in Week 17. It is likely, then, for Atlanta to finish this season with 10 victories. New Orleans already has 10 and will likely have more. It is likely, then, for the NFC South to produce two playoff teams this season. The Seahawks and Cardinals can win no more than nine games apiece.
• Which teams to root against. Seattle and Arizona fans should root for Detroit (8-5) to lose. They should root for the second-place teams from the NFC East to struggle. The Seahawks can reach the playoffs even if the Lions finish 9-7. The Cardinals can as well, but when I played around with scenarios, Arizona needed the Falcons to miss the playoffs at 9-7.
• One edge for Seattle. In at least one scenario, the Cardinals would lose a three-way tiebreaker with Dallas and Detroit if all three finished 9-7. Seattle would win that tiebreaker if the Seahawks finished 9-7 with a victory at Arizona in Week 17.
• Lots of scenarios to consider. The Playoff Machine makes it easy to see which teams would advance to the playoffs based on specific outcomes. It does not tell us all the ways specific teams could reach the playoffs. If you have that information or know where it can be found, please share. I'd like to see all the scenarios.

Games are getting under way in the not-too-distant future. Kellen Clemens gets the start for Sam Bradford in St. Louis.

Looks like Ashley Fox drew the short straw in her debate with John Clayton over which team, San Francisco or New Orleans, stood the best chance at upsetting Green Bay in a playoff game.

As well as the 49ers were playing a few weeks ago, cracks in the foundation have become more visible recently. I went into Week 14 unsure whether they would defeat the Arizona Cardinals. They lost and did not look good.

Clayton's note about 49ers kicker David Akers standing within four made field goals of tying the NFL single-season record tells us plenty.

"Field goals don't beat the Packers," Clayton wrote. "Alex Smith has produced only 25 touchdown drives. The Saints and [Drew] Brees have produced 45 touchdown drives."

A few weeks ago, I would have taken the 49ers to beat the Saints based on their defense, improving ground game and overall efficiency. New Orleans has gotten better since then. San Francisco has plateaued and, in some cases, regressed.

Perceptions can change quickly in the NFL. A 49ers victory over Pittsburgh on Monday night would alter them again. But if the 49ers lose and the Saints overtake them as favorites for the NFC's second seed, here's a tantalizing scenario to consider: San Francisco against one of its division rivals, Arizona or Seattle, in a wild-card playoff game at Candlestick Park.

Yes, I would love to cover such a game.

As a nod to 49ers fans, the scenarios I've linked in the preceding paragraph and in the chart include a San Francisco victory over Pittsburgh. The outcome of that game is irrelevant to the scenarios, however.

Courtesy of the NFL, here are the 2011 NFL Week 15 playoff scenarios.

AFC

Clinched: Houston Texans

New England Patriots -- New England clinches AFC East division with:

1) NE win OR

2) NE tie + NYJ loss or tie OR

3) NYJ loss

New England clinches a playoff spot with:

1) NE tie OR

2) CIN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie + TEN loss or tie

Baltimore Ravens -- Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with:

1) BAL win or tie OR

2) NYJ loss + OAK loss or tie OR

3) NYJ loss + TEN loss or tie OR

4) OAK loss or tie + TEN loss or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers -- Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:

1) PIT win or tie OR

2) OAK loss or tie OR

3) TEN loss or tie OR

4) DEN loss OR

5) NYJ loss

NFC

Clinched: Green Bay Packers (NFC North and first-round bye); San Francisco 49ers (NFC West); New Orleans Saints (playoff spot).

Green Bay Packers -- Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1) GB win or tie OR

2) SF loss or tie

New Orleans Saints -- New Orleans clinches NFC South division with:

1) NO win + ATL loss or tie OR

2) NO tie + ATL loss

The San Francisco 49ers would emerge from the NFC with a 15-1 record and the No. 2 seed if teams with superior records beat teams with lesser records the rest of thew way.

The 49ers would emerge from the NFC with an 11-5 record and the No. 2 seed if home teams beat road teams the rest of the way. They would finish 13-3 and secure the No. 2 seed if teams with higher rankings for total offense won out. They would finish 15-1 and secure the No. 1 seed if teams with higher defensive rankings won out.

It's possible, also, for the Seattle Seahawks to emerge from this season as the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC, among other scenarios.

Those interested in playing around with the nearly endless possibilities can check out ESPN's Playoff Machine, which allows users to produce all possible playoff seeding scenarios by tweaking results for the remaining six weeks of the season.

This will come in handy as the season progresses.

The Green Bay Packers' victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round Sunday makes it possible for the Seattle Seahawks to play the NFC title game at home.

For that to happen, the Packers and Seahawks would have to win their divisional-round games.

The sixth-seeded Packers would have to defeat the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome, where they suffered a 20-17 defeat in Week 12 despite tying the game in the final minute. The fourth-seeded Seahawks would have to defeat the second-seeded Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, where Seattle won in Week 6. These outcomes would not stand as colossal upsets.

A similar scenario helped Arizona advance to the Super Bowl following the 2008 season. The Eagles, seeded sixth that season, defeated the top-seeded New York Giants in the divisional round. The fourth-seeded Cardinals won at second-seeded Carolina the same week. Arizona then defeated Philadelphia at University of Phoenix Stadium in the NFC title game, sending the Cardinals to the Super Bowl.

A quick refresher on Week 17 scenarios affecting NFC West playoff matchups:

What we know: The Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams are playing Sunday for the NFC West title and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs. The fourth seed plays at home in the wild-card round against the fifth seed.

Scenario No. 1: New Orleans will be the fifth seed if the Atlanta Falcons beat the Carolina Panthers or the Saints lose to Tampa Bay.

Scenario No. 2: Atlanta will be the fifth seed if the Panthers beat the Falcons and the Saints beat the Bucs.

Note: The Saints and Falcons are both playing at home in Week 17. The Saints have two home defeat this season, against Cleveland and Atlanta. The Falcons have one home defeat this season, against New Orleans.

Conclusion: The NFC West champion will very likely face the Saints in the wild-card round. The Seahawks and Rams both lost in New Orleans this season.

Let’s resurrect our handy playoff scenario chart as we await Sunday’s game. Below, you’ll see every combination of wins and losses in the key NFC games today.

Here’s the short version of what you need to know for Minnesota and Green Bay:

• The Vikings need to beat the New York Giants, and for Philadelphia to defeat Dallas, in order to secure the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Otherwise, the Vikings will host a wild-card game next weekend.
• The Packers can secure the No. 5 seed with a victory at Arizona. The Cardinals may or may not be able to improve their seeding based on the results of games in Minnesota and Dallas.

Thanks to some major sleuthing from NFC West colleague Mike Sando, we have a certified chart that spells out every NFC playoff scenario entering Week 17.

You can see what it will take for Minnesota to earn the No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the playoffs. You’ll also see how Green Bay will end up with either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.

One note before I let you pore over this: Only one of the scenarios would allow for a Minnesota-Green Bay matchup on wild-card weekend. In order for that to happen, the Vikings, Packers and Cowboys would all have to lose next Sunday. That would leave the Vikings with the No. 4 seed and the Packers at No. 5.