NFL Nation: Power rankings

After acquiring Wisconsin guard/center Peter Konz in the second round, the Atlanta Falcons have moved ahead of the New Orleans Saints. At least that’s the way the voters see it in our post-draft power rankings.

The Falcons moved up to No. 12, one spot better than in our March 20 rankings. The Saints dropped to No. 13, two spots below where they were in March.

I’m just guessing here, since I don’t have a vote, but I really don’t think the draft had all that much of an impact. I’m guessing all the turmoil surrounding the Saints, including possible player suspensions for the bounty program, are the real reasons New Orleans tumbled in the eyes of the voters. Let’s keep in mind, no matter what happens with possible player suspensions, the Saints still will have an explosive offense -- as long as Drew Brees’ contract situation gets resolved.

I am a little surprised that Carolina and Tampa Bay didn’t come out of the draft looking better in the eyes of the voters. The Panthers drafted linebacker Luke Kuechly in the first round and he should help improve their defense. But, somehow, the Panthers who were ranked No. 18 in March, dropped to No. 21. I don’t get that one at all.

Tampa Bay, which added likely starters Mark Barron, Doug Martin and Lavonte David, stayed at No. 24 --the same spot they were in back in March. I don’t get that one either.
The final edition of ESPN.com’s Power Rankings is out and two NFC South teams finished in the top 10.

The New Orleans Saints are No. 2 and the Atlanta Falcons are No. 7. The Saints finished behind only the Green Bay Packers and that’s fair enough. The Packers went 15-1 and defeated the Saints in the season opener.

But I will throw out the fact that I think the Saints are the hottest team in the league right now. I’m not saying they will beat Green Bay if they meet again in the postseason. But I think the Saints are at least capable of winning that game.

No. 7 is about right for the Falcons. They were inconsistent much of the season. But they were stronger in the second half of the season and their roster is talented enough that they could do some damage in the playoffs.

The Carolina Panthers came in at No. 23 and I think it’s safe to say they’re paying for their inability to win some close games in the first half of the season. If the rankings were based just on the second half of the season, I’d say the Panthers are definitely a top-20 team.

I think our voters were exceptionally generous in putting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 29. Let’s be real honest here: The Bucs were the worst team in the NFL by the end of the season. The Vikings, Rams and Colts were ranked below the Buccaneers. But I’ll make the case that if you had thrown the Bucs against any of those teams in the last few weeks, Tampa Bay would have found a way to lose. But this miserable season finally is over for the Bucs. They’re looking for a new head coach and some respectability.

Power Rankings: AFC East

January, 3, 2012
Jan 3
1:00
PM ET
We are down to the final set of ESPN.com’s NFL Power Rankings.

The AFC East went 2-2 in Week 17. Here is how the results impacted the final rankings.

New England Patriots (13-3)

Result: W, 49-21 against Bills

Power Ranking: No. 4 (same)

Walker's vote: No. 3 (same)

Analysis: The Patriots have won eight straight, but that wasn't enough to improve their final ranking. New England finished No. 4 behind a trio of NFC teams: Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. The Patriots remain the highest-rated AFC team and have an inside track to the Super Bowl with home-field advantage. They should be healthy following the bye. The biggest question is can the defense play well when it counts.

New York Jets (8-8)

Result: L, 19-17 against Dolphins

Power Ranking: No. 19 (down three spots)

Walker's vote: No. 17 (down one spot)

Analysis: The Jets joined the Philadelphia Eagles as the biggest flops in the NFL this season. New York coach Rex Ryan oversold this team as a Super Bowl contender. The Jets were talented in the starting lineup but didn't have the same depth as previous years. This group also wasn’t as close and had a ton of chemistry issues. The Jets are another example that chemistry matters in the NFL. New York unraveled itself with bickering, infighting and underperforming.

Miami Dolphins (6-10)

Result: W, 19-17 against Jets

Power Ranking: No. 24 (same)

Walker’s vote: No. 22 (up one spot)

Analysis: Miami sent longtime defensive end Jason Taylor out in style with a win over the rival Jets. This team isn't far away from turning things around. The Dolphins finished the year 6-3 in their last nine games. If they nail this quarterback and head-coaching search, they will be a dangerous team to watch in 2012.

Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Result: L, 49-21 against Patriots

Power Ranking: No. 25 (same)

Walker’s vote: No. 24 (same)

Analysis: The Bills gave up 49 unanswered points to the Patriots. That should be more than enough reason for Buffalo to do everything it can to upgrade the defense via the draft and free agency. It already cost former defensive coordinator George Edwards his job. The Bills showed flashes this season, particularly early. But they need to add more impact players and depth to be able to survive injuries.

NFL Power Rankings: How they voted

January, 3, 2012
Jan 3
12:30
PM ET

Take a bow, Green Bay Packers. You sailed through ESPN's NFL Power Rankings as the top team from Week 1 through the regular season.

There was lots and lots of movement beneath you, however.

Our power rankings voters -- John Clayton, Paul Kuharsky, James Walker, Ashley Fox and me -- tip our caps to the four teams making double-digit jumps from Week 1 to the present.

The San Francisco 49ers finished a league-high 23 spots higher than they started, settling in at No. 3 after peaking one spot higher. The Cincinnati Bengals finished 11th after starting dead last at No. 32. Denver (plus-13) and Tennessee (plus-11) also outperformed initial expectations relative to other teams.

These four surprise teams invited skepticism for various reasons.

The 49ers were breaking in a new coaching staff following the lockout while sticking with Alex Smith at quarterback. The Bengals were transitioning away from Carson Palmer to rookie Andy Dalton. Denver was coming off a disastrous season. Tennessee got more from Matt Hasselbeck than we might have expected.

There were underachievers, too.

The Indianapolis Colts finished 23 spots lower than anticipated, dropping from ninth amid preseason concerns over Peyton Manning's health to 32nd without their quarterback playing a single snap all season. Tampa Bay (-17), St. Louis (-14), the New York Jets (-12), Philadelphia (-11) and Minnesota (-10) also fell at least 10 places since Week 1.

Two teams, No. 1 Green Bay and No. 24 Miami, were exactly who we thought they would be. Their rankings finished right where they started. Sixteen other teams finished within five spots of where they started, with Cleveland, Dallas, Houston and Atlanta finishing within one spot of Week 1 expectations.

And now, a closer look at the rankings through Week 17, beginning with a look at how teams changed (or did not change) in the rankings from last week:

Falling (10): Oakland Raiders (-3), New York Jets (-3), Seattle Seahawks (-3), Dallas Cowboys (-2), Carolina Panthers (-2), Detroit Lions (-1), Houston Texans (-1), Cincinnati Bengals (-1), Denver Broncos (-1), Indianapolis Colts (-1).

Rising (9): Tennessee Titans (+3), San Diego Chargers (+3), New York Giants (+2), Philadelphia Eagles (+2), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Chicago Bears (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+1), Kansas City Chiefs (+1), St. Louis Rams (+1).

Unchanged (13): Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Cowboys prevailed over the Broncos at No. 13 based on the third tiebreaker, which team won most recently. Head-to-head and overall record did not come into play.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first and the Saints second.

Agree to disagree: Some of the wildly inconsistent teams generated larger disparities on voters' ballots. Oakland finished 8-8, for example, but how good were the Raiders, anyway?

A look at the teams generating high-low disparities of at least five spots in the rankings:
  • Cowboys (5): Clayton ranked them 12th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Fox ranked them 17th, lower than any other voter ranked them.
  • Raiders (5): Clayton 14th, Sando and Fox 19th.
  • Cardinals (5): Fox 16th, Walker 21st.
  • Bears (5): Kuharsky 18th, Sando and Clayton 23rd.
  • Seahawks (5): Sando 18th, Walker 23rd.
Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North maintained the highest average ranking for any division, ahead of teams from the NFC North.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:
  • Sando: Chargers (+5).
  • Clayton: none.
  • Kuharsky: Jets (-5).
  • Walker: none.
  • Fox: Cowboys (-5), Eagles (+5), Chargers (+5).
For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Buffalo, Kansas City and Seattle each defeated five teams ranked higher than them this week, tied for most in the league. The teams ranked second through fourth -- New Orleans, San Francisco and New England -- were 0-1 against higher-ranked teams (the Saints lost to the Packers, but the other teams in question did not play one another).

Eleventh-ranked Cincinnati was the lowest-ranked team without a victory over a team ranked higher this week.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:
  • Column Y features team rankings.
  • Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
  • Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
  • Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
  • The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
  • The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.
video

NFL Power Rankings: The AFC South

December, 27, 2011
12/27/11
2:14
PM ET
Last week, NFC West blogger Mike Sando ranked the St. Louis Rams as the worst team in the NFL, moving the Colts up a notch.

There was no way, given the Rams quarterback situation, that they would beat the Colts, he told me.

After another Colts win, James Walker of the AFC East and I followed suit this week. Thus Indianapolis has vaulted to 31st in this week’s ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings.

Ah, the rewards of a two-game winning streak.

I’m one-fifth of the ballot. Mike Sando breaks down the whole vote here.

If you want to contact me with your feedback, please do so via Twitter, Facebook or the mailbag.

Here’s the AFC South:


As for my complete ballot, the number in parenthesis is where I had the team ranked last week.
1) Green Bay (1)

2) New Orleans (2)

3) San Francisco (3)

4) Baltimore (4)

5) Pittsburgh (5)

6) New England (6)

7) Detroit (9)

8) Houston (7)

9) Atlanta (8) 9-6 W

10) NY Giants (13)

11) Cincinnati (14)

12) Denver (10)

13) Dallas (11)

14) Tennessee (15)

15) NY Jets (12)

16) Philadelphia (19)

17) Oakland (22)

18) San Diego (16)

19) Carolina (23)

20) Seattle (17)

21) Chicago (18)

22) Arizona (20)

23) Miami (21)

24) Kansas City (24)

25) Washington (25)

26) Buffalo (26)

27) Jacksonville (27)

28) Cleveland (28)

29) Tampa Bay (29)

30) Minnesota (30)

31) Indianapolis (32)

32) St. Louis (31)

NFL Power Rankings: AFC East

December, 27, 2011
12/27/11
2:00
PM ET
The NFL regular season is wrapping up soon. Here is how the AFC East fared in ESPN.com's Power Rankings:

New England Patriots (12-3)

Results: W, 27-24 against Dolphins

Power Ranking: No. 4 (same)

Walker's ranking: No. 3 (same)

Analysis: A come-from-behind win over the Dolphins didn't do anything for New England's power ranking. The Patriots stayed the same after overcoming a 17-point halftime deficit to improve to 12-3. The NFL has a bevy of strong teams at the top, and the Patriots may have to settle for the No. 4 spot the rest of the regular season. More importantly, New England just has to win its final game against Buffalo to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

New York Jets (8-7)

Results: L, 29-14 against New York Giants

Power Ranking: No. 16 (down four spots)

Walker's ranking: No. 16 (down two spots)

Analysis: The Jets were one of the biggest flops this week. The Jets dropped four spots to No. 16, and it was deserved after losing by 15 points to the Giants. Simply put, the Jets are a mediocre team. On paper, this group should be much better. The Jets have 11-win talent. But the Jets have zero consistency and now could end the year with a .500 record if they can't beat Dolphins on Sunday.

Miami Dolphins (5-10)

Results: L, 27-24 against Patriots

Power Ranking: No. 24 (down one spot)

Walker’s ranking: No. 23 (down one spot)

Analysis: Miami only dropped one spot after a respectable loss to the Patriots. The Dolphins probably could have beat most teams last week with a 17-point lead. But Patriots quarterback Tom Brady wouldn't allow New England to fold. The Dolphins are 5-3 in their last eight games. They're probably better than several teams rated ahead of them, but the 0-7 start will keep Miami in the 20s.

Buffalo Bills (6-9)

Results: W, 40-14 against Denver Broncos

Power Ranking: No. 25 (up one spot)

Walker’s ranking: No. 24 (up two spots)

Analysis: Buffalo finally broke its seven-game losing streak and upended the Broncos. It was one of the Bills' most impressive victories of the season, despite the game being meaningless. The Bills couldn't handle injuries or increased expectations after getting off to the fast start. The biggest bright spot is former first-round draft pick C.J. Spiller is proving that he can be a featured running back in the NFL. Buffalo is expected to drop this week's game at New England and finish with another double-digit losing season.

NFL Power Rankings: Saints stay No. 2

December, 27, 2011
12/27/11
1:47
PM ET
The New Orleans Saints enter the final week of the season as the No. 2 team in the latest edition of the ESPN.com Power Rankings.

That’s the same spot the Saints were in last week and there’s no way you could have expected them to jump over the Green Bay Packers, who are 14-1. But the 12-3 Saints are exactly where they belong. They’ve won seven in a row and have wrapped up the NFC South. Although the Saints are red hot, you can’t put them ahead of the Packers right now.

Green Bay defeated New Orleans in the opener and has a better record. There’s a way the Saints eventually can move ahead of the Packers. That’s to beat them in the playoffs.

The Atlanta Falcons lost to the Saints, 45-16, on Monday night. But that didn’t cost the Falcons anything in the rankings. They’re No. 8, the same spot they were in last week. The Falcons had been on a roll, but Monday night threw them off track. Still, they could have some extra motivation if they end up facing the Saints in the playoffs. Some of the Falcons thought the Saints were out of line by continuing to throw and let Drew Brees set the single-season passing record, long after the game was out of hand.

The Carolina Panthers climbed three spots to No. 21 after routing Tampa Bay on Christmas Eve. Amazingly, the Bucs didn’t fall, despite their ninth straight loss, which might have been the ugliest yet. They’re No. 29.

NFL Power Rankings: How they voted

December, 27, 2011
12/27/11
12:30
PM ET

Through the powers of Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Clemens, the St. Louis Rams have assumed the position as last-ranked team in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings through Week 16.

Quarterback trouble marked the comeback victory Orlovsky led for Indianapolis against Houston, and the shutout Clemens' Rams suffered in Pittsburgh. All four teams in those games played without their starting quarterbacks. This is how things went down at the bottom.

The Colts' victory and the Rams' defeat did more than flip ESPN's Power Rankings at the bottom. Those outcomes also gave the Rams a chance to secure the No. 1 overall choice in the 2012 draft. One more Colts victory, this one against Jacksonville in Week 17, would make it happen if the Rams lost at home to San Francisco.

Our rankings remained unchanged near the top. The teams ranked first through sixth are the same. The playoff-bound Detroit Lions moved up two spots to No. 7.

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 17:

Falling (12): San Diego Chargers (-5), New York Jets (-4), Arizona Cardinals (-3), Seattle Seahawks (-3), Denver Broncos (-2), Houston Texans (-2), Chicago Bears (-1), Dallas Cowboys (-1), Kansas City Chiefs (-1), Miami Dolphins (-1), St. Louis Rams (-1), Washington Redskins (-1).

Rising (9): Oakland Raiders (+5), Tennessee Titans (+5), New York Giants (+4), Carolina Panthers (+3), Cincinnati Bengals (+3), Detroit Lions (+2), Buffalo Bills (+1), Indianapolis Colts (+1), Philadelphia Eagles (+1).

Unchanged (11): Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Titans prevailed over the Jets on the third tiebreaker (which team won a game most recently). Head-to-head and overall record did not break the tie initially.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first and the Saints second. Voters varied by one spot across their ballots in votes for six teams (Ravens 4-5, Lions 7-8, Texans 8-9, Browns 28-29, Colts 31-32 and Rams 31-32).

Agree to disagree: The Eagles continued to produce the biggest disagreement as voters reconciled recently improved play with season-long struggles.

A look at the five teams generating high-low disparities of at least five spots in the rankings:
  • Eagles (7): James Walker ranked them 13th, higher than any other voter ranked them. John Clayton ranked them 20th, lower than any voter ranked them.
  • Panthers (6): Paul Kuharsky 19th, Walker 25th.
  • Seahawks (6): Sando 14th, Kuharsky 20th.
  • Cardinals (5): Fox 17th, Kuharsky 22nd.
  • Jets (5): Fox 14th, Sando 19th.
Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North widened their lead over teams from the NFC North for highest-ranked division on average. AFC North teams climbed from 13.0 to 12.2 in average ranking. NFC North teams improved from 15.1 to 14.9 on average. NFC West teams slipped back one spot to No. 7 with an 18.0 average ranking, still ahead of the 20.9 for teams from the AFC South.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:
  • Sando: Chargers (-6), Cardinals (-5), Bengals (+5), Giants (+5).
  • Clayton: Chargers (-5).
  • Kuharsky: Raiders (+5).
  • Walker: Chargers (-6), Titans (+5), Raiders (+6).
  • Fox: Giants (+6).
For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

Chicago and Buffalo have each defeated a league-high five teams currently ranked higher than them in the rankings. Tenth-ranked Cincinnati is the lowest-ranked team without a victory over a team ranked higher.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:
  • Column Y features team rankings.
  • Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
  • Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
  • Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
  • The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
  • The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

AFC East Power Rankings preview

December, 26, 2011
12/26/11
2:11
PM ET
The AFC East went 2-2 in Week 16. Here is how those games could impact this week's ESPN.com Power Rankings:

New England Patriots (12-3)

Last week: No. 4

Result: W, against Miami 27-24

Analysis: It wasn't pretty, but the Patriots picked up a key win against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins traditionally play New England tough. But it was unacceptable for Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and Co. to fall behind 17-0 at home in the first half. The Patriots got it together in the second half and overcame their biggest deficit of the season. Style points do not matter this time of year. It's all about victories. New England is one win shy of securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Projected vote: No. 2-4

New York Jets (8-7)

Last week: No. 12

Result: L, 29-14

Analysis: Stick a fork in the Jets. They are done. They did more talking than playing the past couple of weeks, and it most likely will keep the Jets out the playoffs. The Giants outplayed the Jets and showed why they are the best team in the New York City area. The Jets still have a small chance to make the playoffs, but they need a miracle. The Jets need to start evaluating their roster for next season.

Projected vote: No. 15-17

Miami Dolphins (5-10)

Last week: No. 23

Result: L, 27-24 against New England

Analysis: The Dolphins deserve a lot of credit for taking the Patriots to the limit. They gave the Patriots their strongest test in weeks despite having nothing to play for. Miami is proving to be a good destination for a potential head coach. This team is not far away from contending. The Dolphins also will have a top-10 draft pick next April.

Projected vote: No. 22-24

Buffalo Bills (6-9)

Last week: No. 26

Result: W, 40-14 against Denver

Analysis: Where was this effort and performance the past two months? Buffalo suddenly went through a time warp and reverted back to the team we saw in the first month of the season. The Bills soundly beat Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos for four quarters. That should move the Bills up a few spots. They have a lot of holes to fix, but this game showed they are not without talent.

Projected vote: No. 23-25

NFL Power Rankings: The AFC South

December, 20, 2011
12/20/11
2:00
PM ET
Three losses meant a collective drop of eight spots for the AFC South in the new edition of the ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings.

The Titans fell seven spots thanks to their loss to the previously winless Colts while the Jaguars dropped one spot after getting thrashed in Atlanta.

The most interesting element of this week’s balloting to me was that one voter, NFC West blogger Mike Sando, moved the Colts up to 31st, dropping St. Louis to last after Indy’s win over Tennessee. The rest of us left the Colts 32nd despite the win, the same way all of us left the Packers first after their loss to Kansas City.

I’m one-fifth of the ballot. Sando breaks down the whole vote here.

If you want to contact me with your feedback, please do so via Twitter, Facebook or the mailbag.

Here’s the AFC South:



As for my complete ballot, the number in parenthesis is where I had the team ranked last week.
1) Green Bay (1)

2) New Orleans (3)

3) San Francisco (7)

4) Baltimore (2)

5) Pittsburgh (4)

6) New England (5)

7) Houston (6)

8) Atlanta (10)

9) Detroit (13)

10) Denver (8)

11) Dallas (14)

12) NY Jets (9)

13) NY Giants (11)

14) Cincinnati (15)

15) Tennessee (12)

16) San Diego (16)

17) Seattle (22)

18) Chicago (17)

19) Philadelphia (18)

20) Arizona (19)

21) Miami (20)

22) Oakland (21)

23) Carolina (24)

24) Kansas City (26)

25) Washington (29)

26) Buffalo (23)

27) Jacksonville (25)

28) Cleveland (28)

29) Tampa Bay (27)

30) Minnesota (30)

31) St. Louis (31)

32) Indianapolis (32)

NFL Power Rankings: AFC East

December, 20, 2011
12/20/11
2:00
PM ET
The New England Patriots won their sixth straight game and continue to gradually climb up ESPN.com's NFL Power Rankings.

Here is how Week 15 impacted the division:

New England Patriots (11-3)

Results: W, 41-23 against Denver

Power Ranking: No. 4 (up one spot)

Walker’s vote: No. 3 (up two spots)

Analysis: I think the Patriots got shafted a little this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens lost ahead of New England, but the Patriots only moved up one spot. The San Francisco 49ers jumped the Patriots after a big win over the Steelers on "Monday Night Football." Either way, the Patriots just need to win their final two home games against Miami and Buffalo to secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC. New England will be hard to beat at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs if quarterback Tom Brady continues to play at an MVP level.

New York Jets (8-6)

Results: L, 45-19 against Philadelphia

Power Ranking: No. 12 (down two spots)

Walker’s vote: No. 14 (down four spots)

Analysis: The Jets continued their trend of not showing up on the road. They fell to 2-5 away from MetLife Stadium with an embarrassing 45-19 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Jets played their worst game all season and dropped two spots in ESPN.com's Power Rankings. I voted New York No. 14 and NFC West blogger Mike Sando vote the Jets the lowest at No. 15.

Miami Dolphins (5-9)

Results: W, 30-23 against Buffalo

Power Ranking: No. 23 (same)

Walker’s vote: No. 22 (same)

Analysis: The Dolphins are finally ahead of the Bills in the Power Rankings. I've been voting Miami ahead of Buffalo for weeks after watching both teams trend in opposite directions. Our panel finally was convinced after Miami swept Buffalo in the season series. The Dolphins deserve a lot of credit for playing hard in the second half of the season, despite inner turmoil and the eventual firing of former head coach Tony Sparano. Miami has two tough games against the Patriots and Jets to finish the season.

Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Results: L, 30-23 against Miami

Power Ranking: No. 26 (down four spots)

Walker’s vote: No. 26 (down three spots)

Analysis: The Bills continue to drop after their seventh consecutive loss. The defense hasn't stopped anyone in weeks and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been too streaky and inconsistent to lift his team. Buffalo needs to take a hard look at its roster in the offseason. The defense needs a major overhaul, but the offense also needs several pieces. Until then, Buffalo needs to try to win at least one of these next two games to help with confidence.

NFL Power Rankings: Saints No. 2

December, 20, 2011
12/20/11
1:30
PM ET
The New Orleans Saints took another step up in the latest edition of the ESPN.com Power Rankings.

The Saints, who have won six straight games, moved from No. 3 to No. 2. All five voters had the Saints at No. 2, one spot behind the Green Bay Packers.

Despite an easy win against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night, the Atlanta Falcons stayed put at No. 8. I’m not on the panel of voters, but I think I would have put the Falcons in front of the Ravens and Steelers, the two teams ranked immediately in front of them.

But my biggest gripe with this week’s vote is that the Carolina Panthers stayed put at No. 24. That comes after the biggest victory the Panthers have had in the past few seasons. They went on the road to Houston and beat a good team Sunday. I think they should have jumped up at least a couple of spots.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell one spot to No. 29 as they lost their eighth straight game and were embarrassed at home by Dallas. Winning four games early on and the ineptitude of the Vikings, Rams and Colts are the only things keeping the Bucs from ranking in the 30s. But there’s still time for them to get there.

NFL Power Rankings: How they voted

December, 20, 2011
12/20/11
12:30
PM ET

When the NFC West looks down, it sees not only the AFC South, but also the once-mighty NFC East. The view is more pleasing than at any point since divisional realignment in 2002.

Consider it a historic shift, a watershed moment, the week when light finally shined upon the no-longer-worst division in football -- except, of course, when power outages at Candlestick Park temporarily left San Francisco and Pittsburgh in the dark.

The 49ers' 20-3 victory over the Steelers on "Monday Night Football" capped a 3-1 week for the NFC West, one that moved up three teams from the division in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 16.

The 49ers moved up two spots to No. 3, passing Baltimore and New England. The Seahawks improved a league-high five spots to No. 15 after blowing out the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Cardinals climbed two spots to No. 17 after beating Cleveland.

The St. Louis Rams remained 31st and ahead of Indianapolis even though I moved them down to No. 32 on my ballot. The other voters are forgiven. They likely had better things to do than watch every snap of St. Louis' 20-6 home defeat to an utterly unimpressive Cincinnati Bengals team.

Despite the Rams' low standing, NFC West teams ranked 16.8 on average, better than teams from the NFC East (17.5) and AFC South (21.6). NFC West teams ranked just below teams from the AFC East (16.5) and AFC West (16.4).

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 16:

Falling (11): Tennessee Titans (-7), Buffalo Bills (-4), Chicago Bears (-4), New York Giants (-4), Baltimore Ravens (-3), Oakland Raiders (-3), Denver Broncos (-2), New York Jets (-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (-2), Jacksonville Jaguars (-2), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1).

Rising (12): Seattle Seahawks (+5), Dallas Cowboys (+4), San Diego Chargers (+4), Kansas City Chiefs (+3), San Francisco 49ers (+3), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+2), Detroit Lions (+2), Washington Redskins (+2), Cleveland Browns (+1), New England Patriots (+1), New Orleans Saints (+1).

Unchanged (8): Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. The Seahawks prevailed over the New York Giants at No. 15 based on the first tiebreaker, head-to-head results.

Like minds: All five voters ranked the Packers first, the Saint second and the Vikings 30th.

Agree to disagree: Walker continues to see the Eagles and Chargers as strong teams finally living up to its potential. Others continue to mark them down for overall struggles this season. That helps explain why Philly, more than any other team, invited polarizing views.

"I gave a lot of credence to how both teams are playing down the stretch in these important games," Walker said. "The Eagles and Chargers are two very dangerous teams right now. If either gets into the playoffs, look out."

Walker also kept New England ahead of the 49ers.

"The Patriots have won six straight games," he said. "The 49ers are 2-2 in their last four. San Francisco also lost the head-to-head with Baltimore. So I kept the Ravens ahead of the 49ers, too, despite an impressive win."

A look at the Eagles and the six other teams generating high-low disparities of at least six spots in the rankings:
  • Eagles (8): Walker ranked them 13th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Sando, Clayton and Fox ranked them 21st, lower than any other voters ranked them.
  • Cardinals (7): Sando 13th, Kuharsky 20th.
  • Raiders (7): Clayton 15th, Kuharsky 22nd.
  • Titans (7): Kuharsky 16th, Walker 23rd.
  • Bengals (6): Fox 10th, Sando 16th.
  • Chiefs (6): Sando 18th, Kuharsky 24th.
  • Seahawks (6): Sando 12th, Walker 18th.
Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North (13.0 average) maintained the highest ranking on average, well ahead of teams from the NFC North (15.1). The AFC South was the lowest-rated division.

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:
  • Sando: Titans (-9), Giants (-6), Cardinals (+5), Seahawks (+5), Chargers (+6), Chiefs (+9).
  • Clayton: Bills (-5), Raiders (-5).
  • Kuharsky: Seahawks (+5).
  • Walker: Titans (-9), Chiefs (+6), Eagles (+6).
  • Fox: Giants (-5).
For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:
  • Column Y features team rankings.
  • Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
  • Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
  • Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
  • The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
  • The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.
video

NFL Power Rankings: The AFC South

December, 13, 2011
12/13/11
9:14
PM ET
The AFC South can’t lose much in ESPN’s NFL Power Rankings. Last week it rated at the worst division with an average spot of 20.1, this week it actualy made a gain -- al the way to 19.6. Still last, of course.

I’m one-fifth of the ballot. Mike Sando breaks down the whole vote here.

If you want to contact me with your feedback, please do so via Twitter or the mailbag.

As for my complete ballot, the number in parenthesis is where I had the team ranked last week.
1) Green Bay (1)

2) Baltimore (2)

3) New Orleans (3)

4) Pittsburgh (5)

5) New England (6)

6) Houston (7)

7) San Francisco (4)

8) Denver (11)

9) NY Jets (8)

10) Atlanta (9)

11) NY Giants (16)

12) Tennessee (10)

13) Detroit (15)

14) Dallas (12)

15) Cincinnati (13)

16) San Diego (27)

17) Chicago (14)

18) Philadelphia (19)

19) Arizona (22)

20) Miami (17)

21) Oakland (18)

22) Seattle (21)

23) Buffalo (20)

24) Carolina (23)

25) Jacksonville (29)

26) Kansas City (24)

27) Tampa Bay (25)

28) Cleveland (26)

29) Washington (28)

30) Minnesota (30)

31) St. Louis (31)

32) Indianapolis (32)
It took five straight wins and a slip up from the San Francisco 49ers for the New England Patriots to earn their way back into the top five of ESPN.com's NFL Power Rankings. New England moved up one spot after beating the Washington Redskins this week.

The AFC East went 2-2 overall. Here is how the results impacted their ratings:

New England Patriots (10-3)

Results: W, 34-27 against Washington

Power Ranking: No. 5 (up one spot)

Walker’s vote: No. 5 (up one spot)

Analysis: The Patriots had a tougher-than-expected game against Washington. It was mainly because New England’s defense couldn’t find a way to stop Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman. That is concerning. The Patriots will face much better teams and quarterbacks in the playoffs. If they can’t stop Washington, who can they stop? But a win moved New England into the top five. The Patriots have an interesting matchup on Sunday against Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos.

New York Jets (8-5)

Results: W, 37-10 against Kansas City

Power Ranking: No. 10 (up one spot)

Walker’s vote: No. 10 (up two spots)

Analysis: The Jets continue to climb up ESPN.com’s Power Rankings. New York is back in the top 10 for the first time in a long time. The Jets have won three straight and are playing like a playoff team. They control their own destiny and currently hold the final wild card in the AFC. We will find out where New York really stands in the next two weeks when they travel to play the Philadelphia Eagles and host the New York Giants.

Buffalo Bills (5-8)

Results: L, 37-10 against San Diego

Power Ranking: No. 22 (down two spots)

Walker’s vote: No. 23 (down one spot)

Analysis: The Bills lost their sixth straight game. They were blown out by the San Diego Chargers. Buffalo is hurting and doesn’t have much left in the tank. The good news is Buffalo has a winnable game against Miami this week. Former Bills draft pick J.P. Losman could get the start for Miami. That should make the Bills the favorite at home.

Miami Dolphins (4-9)

Results: L, 26-10 against Philadelphia

Power Ranking: No. 23 (down one spot)

Walker’s vote: No. 22 (down two spots)

Analysis: The Dolphins finally let go of head coach Tony Sparano after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles. They were planning to do it at some point and rightfully got the head start on 2012. Miami will go with interim coach Todd Bowles. The Dolphins have a lot of injured players to keep an eye on this week, such as quarterback Matt Moore (head), left tackle Jake Long (back) and cornerback Vontae Davis (neck).
BACK TO TOP