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GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Reason No. 6,363 why I’ll never win a Pulitzer Prize: I looked across the aisle on the flight over Monday morning and saw Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh. It wasn’t hard to recognize him.

Harbaugh told a couple of guys sitting near us that he was heading to Green Bay to support his brother, Baltimore coach John Harbaugh, in Monday night’s game against the Packers.

Interesting, I thought. Then I fell asleep.

A few hours later, the New York Times reported Harbaugh either has or will interview for the head-coaching job at Notre Dame, located a few hours away from here. (Stanford athletic director Bob Bowlsby strongly denied the report.) I could have settled the whole controversy by asking Harbaugh to explain himself. Oh well. I’ll just go back to adding up numbers wrong on the NFC North blog. Carry on.

While watching the Baltimore Ravens play the Green Bay Packers on ESPN's "Monday Night Football," keep a close eye on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

If Rodgers is untouched and comfortable in the pocket, Baltimore is in major trouble. But if Rodgers is constantly picking himself off the ground, the Ravens could collect one of their biggest wins of the season.

Baltimore's pass rush might be the biggest difference Monday for the desperate Ravens. At 6-5, Baltimore has little margin for error if it wants to make the playoffs for the second straight year.

The Ravens have struggled with sacks all season, recording just 21 in 11 games. On the flip side Green Bay (7-4) has allowed an astounding 44 sacks of Rodgers in 11 games. So something has to give.

Rest assured, the Ravens will test Green Bay's biggest weakness.

"They had some problems early in the year, because they had some injuries up front and you’ve got guys running at him full speed sometimes," Ravens defensive coordinator Greg Mattison said. "You’re either getting it off quick or you’re getting sacked. But the one thing I noticed watching all the film, [Rodgers] has steadily improved. And he’s always been a very talented quarterback."

When the Packers played the Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) in Week 2, the Bengals registered six sacks on their way to a 31-24 victory. The Ravens will try to win with a similar formula.

When Rodgers isn't on his back, he's one of the NFL's most efficient quarterbacks. He's thrown for 3,136 yards, 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His passer rating is 104.9.

Baltimore will likely attempt to generate a pass rush without one of its best defenders Monday in Pro Bowl linebacker/defensive end Terrell Suggs, who is doubtful with a knee injury. In Suggs' absence, linebacker Jarret Johnson (six sacks) has been the team's best pass-rusher. Rookie Paul Kruger also has an opportunity to pick up some of the slack.

"We’ve gone two games now without Terrell," Mattison said. "It’s been tough, but I said earlier, somebody has got to step up. And that’s what our whole deal has been, is the next guy goes in and he plays as hard as he can, and hopefully he’s got enough in the bank."

Weather also could play a factor, as it is expected to be frigid and windy in Green Bay. That could impact the passing games for both teams.

The Ravens and Packers are both built to thrive in cold weather. So look for the most physical team to prevail Monday night.

"It makes the game different, but both teams are in the conditions," Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said. "We’ve played in some playoff games, a couple of championship games, that were really, really cold. Everybody manages to stay pretty warm."

One of the NFL’s top-rated defenses is making final preparations to appear on "Monday Night Football." It ranks second in total yards, second in takeaways and fourth in third-down percentage.

I’ll tell you what. Those Baltimore Ravens are always so consiste.…

Er, whoops.

While the Ravens' defense has remained strong this season, it is the Green Bay Packers who carry those lofty Week 13 rankings into Monday night’s game at Lambeau Field. The Packers’ statistical standing has risen quietly through the season, and even some of us who follow them regularly were surprised when they emerged last weekend with the No. 1 overall defense (based on total yards allowed). The New York Jets overtook them Thursday night, but the three-day stretch was significant nonetheless. In fact, it was the first time Green Bay had climbed atop the defensive rankings for any amount of time since Week 3 of the 2001 season.

We rely heavily on numbers on this blog, but every now and then I’m reminded of the old Mark Twain quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” I’m not sure if Twain foresaw the NFL’s methods for measuring team defense, but I think it’s fair to at least debate whether the Packers have built a legitimately dominant 3-4 defense or whether the ranking supersedes their true standing.

I think we all can agree that the Ravens will provide us an important litmus test Monday night. Their defense might have slipped a bit since its apex earlier this decade, but it continues to bring an intense and aggressive mindset. Their offense, meanwhile, has grown into a balanced attack that is no longer the stepchild of this team.

So let’s consider both possibilities and then spend the rest of the weekend hashing it out, using the charts as a guide.

The case for:

• After a slow start in September, the Packers have shut down the run during the past two months. Only one of their past nine opponents has netted more than 100 yards. That stretch includes holding Minnesota tailback Adrian Peterson to 152 yards on 50 carries over two games. Overall, the Packers are limiting opponents to 89.1 yards per game, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. The emergence of defensive linemen B.J. Raji and Johnny Jolly has played a big role in that success.
• Coach Mike McCarthy transitioned to the 3-4 in part because he wanted to generate more turnovers. The Packers have responded better than all but one team in the NFL. Green Bay has scored 99 points off its 27 turnovers. Both marks rank No. 2 in the NFL.
• The Packers have an interception against every team they’ve played except for Minnesota.
• Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is making excellent use of his best player, cornerback Charles Woodson. Recognizing Woodson’s blitzing ability, Capers has actually used more “sub” packages than he has a base 3-4 this season, according to McCarthy.

The case against:

• Not everyone agrees that total yards are the best barometer of team defense. Ultimately, it comes down to how many points you give up. On that count, the Packers have been good but not elite. They rank No. 12 in the NFL, the one significant category where the Ravens outpace them.
• The Packers are 1-3 this season against teams with winning records. In the three losses, they have given up an average of 366 yards and 33 points per game. Those opponents -- Cincinnati and Minnesota twice – converted 54.8 percent of their third-down attempts. You could argue the Packers’ defense failed in three of the team’s four toughest games this season.
• With linebacker/defensive end Aaron Kampman lost for the season, the Packers don’t have a designated pass-rusher. In reality, Woodson is their best threat to sack the quarterback. Capers is heavily utilizing added pressure to get to the quarterback, blitzing with the ninth-most frequency in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Still, Green Bay’s 23 sacks rank No. 20 in the league.

Where do you fall in this argument? You’ve got until Monday night at about 8:30 p.m. ET to figure it out.