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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Let’s note right up front that that dream record would also include at least two postseason wins, which would be a first in the era of coach Mike Smith, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan. In their time, the Falcons have played the days after Christmas exactly like they’re the days after Christmas. There’s been a huge letdown when January has rolled around.

That’s putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Falcons. But that might be a good thing. Smith has said postseason failures have caused him to rethink how he does a lot of things. There’s little doubt those failures played a role in the hiring of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, moves that might get the Falcons over the hump.

There are a lot of scouts and coaches around the league who believe Ryan was held back by former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and the defense never established any sort of identity under Brian VanGorder. The Falcons can score with any team if Ryan is allowed (and has time) to throw the ball downfield to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Nolan is preaching about the need to be more aggressive on defense.

Nightmare scenario (8-8 or anything worse): Let’s face it, the only way the Falcons are a .500 (or worse) team is if they have several major injuries or a huge implosion. This is a team that is loaded with individual talent on both sides of the ball. Or so it seems.

When coordinators go, head coaches and key players tend to lose their insulation. If Koetter can’t get more out of Ryan than Mularkey did, the Falcons suddenly have a huge issue at quarterback. If Nolan can’t get guys such as Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson to do more than they did for VanGorder, then maybe it’s not all about the coordinators or offensive and defensive schemes.

Owner Arthur Blank has said Smith isn’t on the hot seat, no matter what happens this season. But I think Smith is at least entering the same territory Tony Dungy once did in Tampa Bay. Smith is getting labeled as a nice guy who can win a lot of games in the regular season but can’t win in January. If this team doesn’t win a playoff game, Smith officially is on the hot seat. If this team somehow fails to even make the playoffs, Blank might be forced to rethink his statement. This team is too talented not to win.

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints made this list of the NFL’s top-10 front offices.

No big surprise there. The Saints and Falcons have been consistent winners the past few years, and the front offices undoubtedly have played a big role.

But I am a little surprised that the Saints were ranked No. 9 and the Falcons came in at No. 6. New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis and the people that work for him, and Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff and the people that work with him are very good at what they do. But I think you have to give the Saints the edge here, because they have won a Super Bowl. The Falcons have won a lot of regular-season games since Dimitroff’s arrival, but they have yet to win a playoff game during his tenure.

Until that changes, I can’t justify putting the Falcons ahead of the Saints in this category. But Loomis obviously is at a critical point in his career. He has yet to get franchise quarterback Drew Brees signed to a long-term deal. Brees has admitted he’s frustrated with what he called a lack of communication. But I still think this deal will get done before the July 16 deadline for franchise players to sign long-term contracts.

If things somehow don’t get worked out and Brees sits out the season, then Loomis immediately falls off the top of this list. But Loomis has been creative and completed complicated contracts in the past. If he signs Brees to a long-term deal, then Loomis stays atop the list for the foreseeable future.

Dimitroff is a very solid No. 2 in the division. He’s had some good drafts and acquired guys like Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. But Dimitroff needs guys like Ray Edwards, Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel to step up. He also needs the Falcons to get some postseason wins.

The Panthers and Buccaneers didn’t make the list of the top-10 front offices. Given the recent history of the two franchises, that’s not surprising. But Carolina’s Marty Hurney is the dean of NFC South general managers, and he’s had some success in the past. Hurney took a major step in rebuilding the Panthers by drafting quarterback Cam Newton last year. If Newton can duplicate his rookie performance, Hurney has a chance to crack the top 10.

Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik is entering a crucial season. He outlasted former coach Raheem Morris, and Dominik's offseason looks good on paper, but he needs the players he’s drafted to start showing some positive results.

The 32 crew understands Drew Brees' frustration with Saints ownership, Benjamin Watson answers questions from Facebook, and Mark Schlereth gives his opinion on Ray Edwards' calendar spread.

Did the Falcons do enough to get tough enough up front?

The Falcons went hard after offensive linemen in the draft. They took Wisconsin guard/center Peter Konz in the second round and Southern Mississippi tackle Lamar Holmes in the third. They also added guard Vince Manuwai in free agency.

The plan seems to be to throw Konz and Manuwai out there with guard Justin Blalock, center Todd McClure, guard Garrett Reynolds and guard/center Joe Hawley. The Falcons will let them all compete in training camp and and then decide which combination gives them the best interior. Konz probably will emerge as a starter, and either he or Hawley could replace McClure, who is aging fast. That should improve the interior of the offensive line, but what about the outside? Left tackle Sam Baker struggled last season, and the fact that Holmes was sitting there in the third round is a pretty good indicator that he’s not ready to step in and be a stud left tackle.

If the Falcons really are serious about throwing downfield more, they have to give quarterback Matt Ryan more time. The Falcons still may have to add a left tackle (Marcus McNeill) to compete with Baker if they really want to solidify their offensive line.

Speaking of solidifying lines, the Falcons haven’t done much on the defensive side, and that also was a problem area last year. They brought back veteran defensive end John Abraham, but they don’t have any other especially strong pass-rushers. I wouldn’t count on an immediate impact from fifth-round pick Jonathan Massaquoi. Guys like Ray Edwards, Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury have to step up, or the Falcons have to go try to find a pass-rusher in what remains of free agency.

The Atlanta Falcons shocked more than a few of their fans when they didn’t go after defensive end Mario Williams in free agency.

As owner Arthur Blank explained in this column from Saturday, coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff chose to stick with continuity instead of making splashy moves. Salary-cap considerations factored into that.

There was speculation that the Falcons would let veteran defensive end John Abraham leave when he revealed before the start of free agency that he wanted a deal worth $12 million per season. Abraham didn’t get that kind of money on the open market and he’s back with the Falcons on a three-year contract that averages $5.5 million.

Abraham will turn 34 next month, but the Falcons still believe he can be the key to their pass rush. He had 9.5 sacks last season and 13 in 2010.

“John has been our most productive pass-rusher since we’ve been here,’’ Smith said at the recent NFL owners meeting. Chronologically, his age may say one thing, but his body says another. John will still command how they’re going to block him and that’s going to open other options for (new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan) and what we want to do schematically.’’

The Falcons don’t have a first-round draft pick and may pursue another pass-rusher at some point in the draft. But they still view Abraham as their top threat up front. Defensive end Ray Edwards, Atlanta’s big free-agent signing last year, had just 3.5 sacks last season. The Falcons are expecting more out of Edwards, as well as rotation players Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury. They also want more production out of the middle of their defensive line. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux had just one sack after producing a combined 10 sacks in 2009 and 2010.

“You don’t want to have just one guy that’s getting all the production,’’ Smith said. “You want other defensive linemen and linebackers being productive pass-rushers. If you look at Coach Nolan’s 14 years as a defensive coordinator, he’s been one of the most productive on third down. You want to have a scheme that puts added pressure on the quarterback on third downs."

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- The Green Bay Packers have received the maximum number of extra draft picks available to teams through the NFL's compensatory draft program, while the Minnesota Vikings have received two.

That's our local upshot of Monday's always-anticipated announcement of compensatory draft picks. The Packers got four extra picks and will now have 12 in next month's draft, while the Vikings will have a total of 10. Neither the Chicago Bears nor the Detroit Lions were expected to receive a compensatory pick.

The NFL doesn't reveal its exact formula for determining the extra picks, but in essence it's based on the difference in value between the free agents a team loses and the ones it signs the previous year. In 2011, the Packers bid farewell to free agents Daryn Colledge, Brandon Jackson and Cullen Jenkins, among others, and did not sign a significant free agent of their own.

The formula granted the Packers two fourth-round picks and two additional seventh-rounders. The Packers' total of 12 picks includes three in the fourth round and four in the seventh.

Meanwhile, the Vikings received two fourth-round picks, No. 33 and No. 39 in the round, after losing receiver Sidney Rice, quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and defensive end Ray Edwards in 2011. They signed nose tackle Remi Ayodele, but he made little impact.

The Atlanta Falcons have their new pass-rusher. It’s their old pass-rusher.

John Abraham has agreed to a contract that will keep him with the Falcons, Adam Schefter reports.

The deal is for three years, and financial terms have yet to be disclosed. But I think it’s safe to assume the yearly average is somewhere less than the $12 million or more Abraham said he was looking for before free agency.

The Falcons let Abraham test the market a bit and it didn’t seem like he was a red-hot commodity. Understandable because he’s about to turn 34.

That’s why I’m not sure that this was the best possible move the Falcons could have made. They could have pursued Mario Williams, who signed with Buffalo. I’m not sure if the Falcons even poked around on Williams or any other pass-rushers, but they obviously don’t have a ton of salary-cap room, so that may have prevented a flashy move.

I think Abraham’s been a very good player for the Falcons, but you have to worry about a decline in play because of his age. Abraham had 9.5 sacks last season, but 3.5 of those came against a hapless Jacksonville team.

But the Falcons are going with what they know. Their coaching staff is very familiar with Abraham and their medical and training staffs probably have a good idea if he has anything left in the tank. The Falcons must believe Abraham has something left. But it sure would be nice if the other starting defensive end, Ray Edwards, who signed a big contract last year, is more productive in the pass rush next season.

In one other bit of news that should make Atlanta fans, who have been critical of the team for staying quiet in free agency, very happy, the Falcons reportedly will visit with former San Diego left tackle Marcus McNeill next week. Aside from defensive end, left tackle might have been Atlanta's biggest need entering free agency.

The Atlanta Falcons just announced they have re-signed defensive end Kroy Biermann, which may be more significant than it sounds.

This could be a sign that veteran John Abraham won’t be returning. Although no one is going to confuse Biermann with a guy that can step in and give the Falcons double-digit sacks in most seasons, like Abraham has, this could be a piece of Atlanta’s future pass rush.

Let’s face it, Abraham has made noise about wanting $12 million a season. That’s way too much to pay a player at his age. The Falcons already have a pile of money tied up in defensive end Ray Edwards and they probably just gave Biermann a nice chunk of change (we don’t know his contract details yet).

But keeping Biermann at least gives the Falcons a decent third defensive end for their rotation. Could he move into a starting role? Perhaps, but I suspect the Falcons will go out and bring in another pass-rusher.

It could be a big-time free agent like Mario Williams. Or it could be a rookie, but the Falcons don’t have a first-round pick at the moment.

What they do have at the moment is Biermann, Edwards and even reserve Lawrence Sidbury. They probably won’t have Abraham, but they’ve got a start at defensive end and they’ll probably finish it with something bigger.

It appears veteran defensive end John Abraham will not be returning to the Atlanta Falcons.

Steve Wyche reports Abraham’s agent said he has been given indications by the team that Abraham will be allowed to test free agency. If an agent says that it probably means he’s been told there’s no chance of his client re-signing. The Falcons are usually pretty straight shooters when it comes to these matters, so it’s likely Abraham’s been told he won’t be back.

That’s not a real big surprise. Abraham was Atlanta’s top pass-rusher with 9.5 sacks last season. But Abraham is 33 and played only on a part-time basis last season while dealing with lingering injuries.

The Falcons have Ray Edwards, a high-priced free agent from last year. Edwards played the run well, but didn’t have a big impact on the pass rush. The Falcons also have Lawrence Sidbury. The indication that Abraham won’t return probably means the Falcons will try to re-sign Kroy Biermann, who can become a free agent.

But it’s not likely the Falcons will be content with Edwards, Sidbury and Biermann. They probably will add a pass-rusher in the draft or free agency.

One of the first things first-year law students are told is to look to their left, their right and at themselves. Then, they hear how at least one of the three of them won’t be there the following year. It’s the start of the weeding-out process.

The NFC South is about to go through one of its own. Give me your list of the 15 biggest names in the NFC South. Thanks, I’ve got them and I think we’ve got a pretty good consensus.

Now, I’ll tell you why a third of those names could be gone by the time the league year starts in mid-March. It happens every year in every division and it’s usually due to age, injury and salary-cap situations.

But 2012 could be the year of the facelift in the NFC South. More than usual, the faces and the names that are on the bubble are especially prominent. Let’s take a look at five big NFC South names that could be gone from their teams in the next month:

John Abraham, Falcons. He’ll turn 34 in May, which is ancient for a pass-rusher. There were signs in 2011 that Abraham was slowing down, after putting up an impressive 13 sacks in 2010. The numbers may not look terrible on the surface because Abraham did finish last season with 9.5 sacks.

But let’s put that in perspective and remember that 3.5 of those came in a game against a very bad Jacksonville team. That’s like counting home runs from batting practice. Without the Jacksonville game, Abraham had six sacks. I don’t want to hear the argument that every down year in Abraham’s career has been followed by an up one.

When a defensive end reaches 33 or 34, you generally see him trending in only one direction and that’s down. Abraham’s had a very nice run with the Falcons, but they invested a lot of money in Ray Edwards to play opposite him last year. Edwards didn’t light it up, so the Falcons may have to invest more money or draft picks in defensive ends this year.

Abraham’s also an unrestricted free agent. Could the Falcons bring him back at a reasonable rate for one more year and use him as a pass-rush specialist? Sure, it’s possible. But, with Mike Nolan taking over as Atlanta’s defensive coordinator, it might be a good time to find a new face of the Falcons’ pass rush.

Will Smith, Saints. For a long time, Abraham and Smith have been viewed as the NFC South’s top two pass-rushers. But it’s possible they’ll both be gone. Smith’s situation is slightly different than Abraham’s.

To start with, Smith remains under contract, which is precisely the reason he’s even in this discussion. Smith is scheduled to count $10.15 million against the 2012 salary cap. That’s an issue for a team that’s trying to figure out how to keep free-agent quarterback Drew Brees, guard Carl Nicks and receiver Marques Colston.

Let’s do the math real quick here. The Saints could save a $1 million roster bonus if they cut Smith before the 15^th day of the league year. If they did release Smith, the Saints would only be on the hook for $4 million against the salary cap. In other words, they could free up $6.15 million in salary-cap space.

Throw in the fact that Smith will turn 31 in July and produced only 6.5 sacks in 2011 and I think you can see the Saints have to at least consider this possibility. But there also are some things weighing in Smith’s favor. It’s not like the Saints have another dominant pass-rusher (safety Roman Harper led the team with 7.5 sacks last season) and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo likes his pass rush to come almost exclusively from the front four. That could weigh in Smith’s favor. But, if Smith really wants to shift the scales and make sure he stays in New Orleans this year, he might be willing to restructure his contract to make it more cap friendly.

Jonathan Vilma, Saints. I can hear the screams coming from fans already. Vilma’s not Brees, but he’s close to being an icon and he should be because he’s had a great run.

But let’s face the reality. Can anyone honestly say they saw greatness in Vilma this past season? He looked a step slow before and after the knee surgery that forced him to miss five games. Vilma will turn 30 in April. Anytime you’re talking about a linebacker whose game is based largely on speed, knee surgery and 30th birthdays are not good signs.

As I pointed out on Smith, economics are a big deal for the Saints. Vilma is scheduled to count $7.6 million against this year’s cap. If the Saints release him, they instantly free up $5.2 million in cap space.

Thomas Davis, Panthers. We’re purely making educated guesses on Vilma, Smith, Abraham and the final guy on the list. But Davis’ departure from Carolina is more than an educated guess. Sadly, it’s a foregone conclusion.

The Panthers took a shot on Davis last summer when they signed him to a big contract extension after he had come back from two torn ACLs. Then, he went out and suffered the same injury for the third time early last season. That’s why the Panthers basically included an “out clause’’ when they gave Davis the new contract.

His deal calls for an $8 million option bonus on the second day of the league year. That’s not going to happen. The Panthers will release Davis because it’s the only move that makes economic sense. But he is well-liked by ownership, the front office and coaches, so it’s not impossible to see Davis ending up back with the Panthers at a much lower salary if he can’t land a nice deal somewhere else.

Ronde Barber, Buccaneers. You’d like to say that Barber has earned the right to end his career as a Buccaneer whenever and however he wants to. But this isn’t a perfect world. Yes, it is possible Barber could simply decide to retire. It’s also possible he may want to continue playing and new coach Greg Schiano could want to keep him as an elder statesman. In that scenario the Bucs simply could hand Barber another $4 million contract like they did in 2011.

But it’s also possible Barber may want to continue playing and the Bucs don’t feel they need to keep a cornerback who will turn 37 in April. That’s where this one could get sticky.

The Bucs looked terribly cruel when they sent Derrick Brooks packing in 2009. This situation isn’t quite the same because Barber’s no longer under contract and maybe he makes it easy on the Bucs and simply retires.

But Aqib Talib, the other starting cornerback, is facing trial on an assault charge in Texas in March. There’s no guarantee Talib will be with the Bucs next season and it’s not like the team has a ton of other talented cornerbacks.

This might be one situation where the Bucs might be wise to ignore the youth movement they’re following everywhere else and bring back the one guy they know they can count on -- if he wants to keep playing.

The 2011 season was memorable across the NFC South for many reasons, both good and bad. We saw the Saints go 13-3 while setting all sorts of records and we saw Tampa Bay fall apart about as completely as any team ever has.

We saw the Atlanta Falcons, at times, look like a great team and, at other times, look very ordinary. We saw the rebirth of the Carolina Panthers, who ended the season as a team very much on the rise.

So let’s take a look back at the season with a lists of awards and “bests’’ and “worsts’’.

Most Valuable Player: This one’s as easy as it gets. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees carried the Saints and set a new single-season record for passing yardage.

Most Valuable Player (non-quarterback): This one’s not all that difficult either. New Orleans’ Darren Sproles set a new NFL record for all-purpose yards. He also made it impossible for opposing defenses to match up with the Saints.

Defensive Player of the Year: This one’s difficult because the NFC South isn’t known for strong defense. It also didn’t help that Carolina linebacker Jon Beason, who might be the division’s best overall defensive player, missed almost the entire year with an injury, and New Orleans middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma was slowed by a knee injury most of the season. That’s why I’m going with Atlanta’s Sean Weatherspoon. Look around the division and tell me if there’s a guy who makes more big plays. I couldn’t find one.

Rookie of the Year: This is almost as easy as giving Brees the MVP. Carolina’s Cam Newton wins easily. He set a rookie record for passing yards and had more rushing touchdowns in a season than any quarterback in NFL history. His “Superman’’ celebration truly fits.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: This one’s not as obvious as Newton. But when you give it a little thought, Tampa Bay defensive end Adrian Clayborn easily was the best rookie defender in the division. Clayborn was one of only about two or three bright spots for the Bucs. He showed he’s a complete defensive end — one who can rush the passer and play the run.

Best Performance by a Second-Year Player: Weatherspoon was a candidate for this, but the nod goes to New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham. He had one of the best seasons ever by a tight end. I know the Saints have a lot of pressing contract issues and Graham is under contract for three more seasons. But at some point this offseason, they should give Graham an extension and a huge pay raise. Graham’s only making minimum wage. If ever a player has outperformed his contract, it’s Graham.

Coach of the Year: I respect the job Ron Rivera did in Carolina, but I’ve got to go with New Orleans’ Sean Payton. He got his team to 13 wins, despite having his knee shattered in a sideline collision.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Prior to Payton’s injury, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael had lived in the shadows of the head coach. But Carmichael started calling the plays when Payton went down. Payton let that continue the rest of the season and the Saints kept winning.

Executive of the Year: It has to be Carolina general manager Marty Hurney. In one offseason, he hit two home runs on two of the biggest challenges a general manager can face. He hired Rivera, who is well on his way to being a good head coach. More important, Hurney found a franchise quarterback in Newton. Many doubted Newton prior to the draft. Hurney did his homework and it paid off.

Best Turnaround: The Panthers might have won only six games, but that’s triple what they won last year.

Worst Collapse: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had one of the biggest collapses in NFL history. They started 4-2, then lost their final 10 games while appearing totally out of control on and off the field.

Best Offseason Move: There’s no doubt it was the signing of Sproles. He was the best free-agent signing in the entire NFL. And for those Tampa Bay fans who like to bash their ownership and front office for not bringing in Sproles, the fact is you never had a chance. The Bucs and other teams made inquiries about Sproles, but were told it wasn’t going to happen. All along, Sproles was headed nowhere else but New Orleans, for a reunion with former San Diego teammate Brees. They continued spending their offseasons together. Brees was recruiting Sproles throughout the lockout and, in New Orleans, Brees gets whatever he wants.

Worst Offseason Move: That would be Tampa Bay not finding a running back to pair with LeGarrette Blount. It didn’t have to be Sproles and the Bucs weren’t wrong in letting Cadillac Williams go. But they should have gotten a legitimate NFL running back who could catch passes out of the backfield and pass-block. Blount can’t do either — and the Bucs made a severe miscalculation by thinking he could be an every-down back.

Best Bounce-Back Season: The winner here is Carolina receiver Steve Smith. In the offseason, he wasn’t sure he wanted to stay in Carolina. Once he caught a few passes from Newton, everything changed. Smith was back to being the dominant receiver he was a few years back.

Worst Disappearing Act: Soon after signing with the Atlanta Falcons, defensive end Ray Edwards proclaimed himself the "missing link.'' Instead of leading the Falcons to a Super Bowl, Edwards simply was missing most of the season. He played the run all right, but Atlanta’s pass rush didn’t improve and that’s why he was signed.

Best Off-Field Decision: You can accuse Tampa Bay’s ownership management of being inept all you want. After a 4-12 season, it’s fair game. But someone very high hope with the Bucs made an excellent decision when the team turned down the opportunity to appear on HBO’s “Hard Knocks.’’ Whoever that wise person was realized that it might not be such a great idea to open the organization to cameras around the clock. Those cameras could have captured things wouldn’t have looked great – things like assistant coaches trying unsuccessfully to explain the uncomplicated art of pass-blocking to Blount or a gregarious former coach taking the camera crew on a late-night tour of Tampa.

Equipment Manager of the Year: That’s Carolina’s Jackie Miles, of course. I used to say Derrick Brooks was the best player in NFC South history. Now, I’ll admit Brees has at least caught up to Brooks and maybe surpassed him. But, if I had to pick a third guy who’s the best at what he does in the history of the division, it would be Miles. To those who know him, the man’s a legend in many ways and could end up being the first equipment manager in the Hall of Fame.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Their season ended sooner than expected, so the Atlanta Falcons haven’t had time to come up with a title for their highlight film.

I’ll throw them a few suggestions:

• "Fourth-and-inches: Next year, we’ll just kick it."

• "Explosive or implosion?’"

• "How I lost that Jacksonville job," narrated by Mike Mularkey.

• “That Allstate commercial is not going to happen, but maybe I can fill in for that Mayhem guy," hosted by Roddy White.

Hey, wait, we just got a submission from Atlanta coach Mike Smith.

"It was a lot like our season, very inconsistent," Smith said after his Falcons lost 24-2 to the New York Giants in the wild-card round Sunday at MetLife Stadium. "We played some that were good. We played some that were not so good. I think that’s really the story of our 2011 season."

Take any of those suggestions or add your own. There are seemingly endless ways to summarize how a team with Super Bowl expectations came up dramatically short.

Since the arrival of Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan in 2008, the Falcons had been to the playoffs twice before. They lost both those games, including a home game against Green Bay last season when the Falcons were the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

But this loss was far worse because the Falcons weren’t even competitive. That was mostly their own fault, because the Giants were as inconsistent as the Falcons during the regular season. On Sunday, the Falcons made the Giants look like champions.

The offense White referred to as “The Greatest Show on Turf’’ in the preseason didn’t score. Atlanta’s points came on a safety. How does an offense that has Ryan, White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner get blanked?

“I have no idea,’’ said White, who finished with five catches for 52 yards and dropped at least two passes, after leading the NFL in drops during the regular season.

Since White has no idea, I’ll throw out a few quickies: The Falcons couldn’t run the ball (Turner finished with 41 yards on 15 carries), Ryan was held to 199 passing yards and Smith (and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey) got outcoached by Tom Coughlin and his staff. All that calls out for more detail.

Let’s start with the coaching, because this has been a huge issue before. On two different occasions, Smith elected to go for it on fourth-and-inches. On two different occasions, that decision failed miserably. Smith decided on the same thing, with the same result, in overtime during a regular-season loss to New Orleans.

The first decision to go for it on fourth down came on the first play of the second quarter. The second came with 4:21 left in the third quarter, when the Falcons were trailing only 10-2. Both times, the Falcons had Ryan, who will never be confused with Michael Vick as a runner, try a quarterback sneak. Both times Ryan came up short. The second one was far more damaging, and even more insulting to anyone with common sense. It came with Ryan lining up with an empty backfield, a clear signal of what was coming.

“It was about half a yard, maybe even less than that,’’ Smith said. “That was the play. We go through the sequence all through the week, and we felt like that was the play that we had up and we just didn’t execute it. We felt like at any point in time that we ought to be able to move the football less than half a yard with a quarterback sneak.’’

Forget the fact the Falcons could have handed the ball to Turner, who has gained more than a half yard plenty of times in his career. The Falcons tried that approach in the New Orleans loss and that didn’t work, either.

What’s more disturbing is that, unlike the Turner play against the Saints, both of these opportunities came when the Falcons were in position to attempt a field goal. Both opportunities came at points in the game when a field goal would have meant a lot.

“You could have gone ahead and attempted the field goal,’’ Smith said. “I felt and we felt as a staff, with our offense, that we could move the ball and we wanted to get seven points.’’

Instead, the Falcons ended up with two points for the day. That’s not the sum total of just a couple of coaching decisions and play calls. That’s a sign of much larger problems for a team that clearly was shooting for the Super Bowl when it dealt draft picks to trade up to get Jones in April and paid a ton for free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards as soon as the lockout ended.

Both decisions were based almost entirely on what Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff decided was lacking after last season’s playoff loss to Green Bay. They talked repeatedly about how Jones and Edwards would add “explosiveness."

Instead, the Falcons ended up with a dud of a season. People are going to start to question if Smith and Ryan ever can win a playoff game. They’re also going to start to question if the trade for Jones was wise, especially as the 2012 draft approaches and the Falcons are looking to rebuild an offensive line that was built for run blocking and showed it can't pass block no matter how many receiving weapons the Falcons have.

“Well, I think that’s a mistake,’’ Falcons owner Arthur Blank said after he was reminded the Jones trade is officially open to criticism. “Julio stepped up and did everything we wanted him to do this year. He’s going to be an outstanding receiver and player in the league. He has certainly proved his worth this year. He clearly showed his explosive capability throughout the year. You saw that in a number of games. You didn’t see it today.’’

You didn’t see much of anything offensively against the Giants and that took a toll on Atlanta’s defense as the game went on, which just compounded Atlanta’s problems.

“Our expectations for our football team and our organization are much higher than just making an appearance in the playoffs,’’ Smith said.

Blank didn’t sound like a man who was ready to do anything rash. But he sounded frustrated and made it clear he expects Smith and Dimitroff to do some serious introspective thinking as they look back at the season.

“I think the answer is you’ve got to do a thorough diagnostic on the team, the players, the coaches and personnel area on why we didn’t perform the way that we’re capable of,’’ Blank said. “The beauty of Smitty and Thomas is that they will do that. They’re not, by nature, defensive individuals. They’re thoughtful, they’re bright and they care obviously about the franchise and winning. They will do what I would want them to do which is to be objective and go through a detailed analysis and not be emotional about it. Do it from a thoughtful standpoint. Where that takes us, I can’t tell you. That’s not up to me to tell you. That’s up to them to figure it out and we’ll work on it organizationally.’’

One hint to Smith and Dimitroff: As you found out with fourth-and-inches, doing the same thing repeatedly isn’t going to work. Don’t do what you did last year and just fix two glaring holes. Fix every little hole on your team or you’ll never win a playoff game.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Thoughts on the Atlanta Falcons' 24-2 playoff loss to the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

What it means: This was much more than just a loss. This was devastating for the entire Falcons organization. Yeah, give the Giants credit for winning the game. But give the Falcons plenty of blame for losing. This team had sent out a strong signal that the Super Bowl was the goal when it traded up to draft Julio Jones and signed free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards. The Falcons didn’t even come close to the Super Bowl. For the second straight year -- and the third time in four years -- the Falcons lost their opening playoff game.

When you have those expectations and those results, you can’t expect owner Arthur Blank to remain patient forever. Coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan never have won a postseason game. Their jobs aren’t in jeopardy -- yet. But everyone around them (assistant coaches, offensive linemen and receivers who can’t hang onto passes) is suddenly on the hot seat. This loss will prompt some changes in Atlanta.

Fourth-and-nowhere: Smith elected to go for it on fourth-and-inches twice when he could have kicked field goals. That didn’t work either time. Smith also failed when he went for it in overtime against the Saints during the regular season. Anyone notice a theme here? I think you’ll be reading a lot more about this in my follow-up column.

What happened to the offense? This was a legitimate question during the regular season, but it really showed in the playoff game. The Falcons have no offensive identity, no idea whether they’re a running or passing team. Against the Giants, they weren’t either; they simply were a terrible offense. That’s a far cry from those lofty expectations I mentioned above.

Big players make big drops: Atlanta receiver Roddy White led the NFL in drops during the regular season. He escalated that in the postseason. White dropped at least two passes, possibly three and maybe even four. I’m not sure how or why, but White went from being one of the league’s most sure-handed receivers in 2010 to a drop machine this season. I’m not saying White’s done in Atlanta by any means. But he’s getting up in age, he comes with a high price tag and it wouldn’t totally shock me if he’s dangled for trade in the offseason.

Total mismatch: Atlanta’s offensive line was totally destroyed by the Giants’ pass rush. Not surprising, really. The Falcons built this line for run -- not pass -- blocking. Ryan was bad, largely because he had no chance. The Falcons already had given up on Sam Baker at left tackle. Journeyman replacement Will Svitek got exploited and showed he’s not a long-term answer. The Falcons need to get a left tackle. Problem is, they won’t have a first-round draft pick (that went in the deal for Jones), and the list of left tackles coming available in free agency isn’t too promising. Remember what I mentioned about perhaps shopping White. Oh, and Joe Hawley doesn’t look like the answer at right guard.

What’s next: An offseason of change at the Falcons’ Flowery Branch facility. This team has a ton of talent, and it won’t be blown up. But there will be significant tweaks in different areas.

Take a look at Atlanta’s Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. On the surface, they look like the perfect coach-quarterback combination.

On the heels of the fiascos involving Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino, Smith and Ryan arrived in Atlanta back in 2008. Instantly, they brought stability and credibility to a franchise that had fallen into disarray.

They’ve been winning, comfortably and calmly, ever since. They’ve had four straight winning seasons together, and that’s been joyful for a franchise that hadn’t had back-to-back winning seasons before Smith and Ryan arrived. Three of those seasons have included 10 or more wins. The Falcons are also about to make their third playoff appearance in four seasons, and Ryan established career bests for passing yards and touchdowns during the regular season.

Everything looks just fantastic for the Falcons.

But let’s push a little beyond the surface, and you’ll see this is a franchise at a critical juncture.

When the Falcons play the New York Giants on Sunday at MetLife Stadium, anything less than a victory will be a major disappointment for the Falcons. The franchise has fallen on good times, but there’s a problem with that.

It’s not enough simply to be good every year. Smith has talked several times about how the organization’s goal is not just to make the playoffs.

Smith and Ryan have never won a playoff game. They lost one they were expected to lose to Arizona in the 2008 season. They lost another to Green Bay last season when they were the No. 1 seed and the Packers were the No. 6 seed.

“There was a common theme in terms of that you can’t turn the football over,’’ Smith said. “That was the most pressing thing and both of them happened right, if you remember correctly, they both happened, one right before halftime last season and Arizona I think was the first or second play of the second half. We came out and turned the ball over and it was returned for a touchdown as well. It’s no different than regular-season football, but we’ve got to make sure that we have ball security. We cannot turn the football over in the postseason. It’s imperative.’’

Yeah, the turnovers were a common theme in the previous two playoff losses, and there’s no shame in losing to teams that went on to the Super Bowl. But here’s where that tension beneath the surface starts to ooze out.

The Falcons can’t continue to lose playoff games. A loss to the Giants will start the rumblings that Smith might be the second coming of Norv Turner -- a really nice guy who can’t win when it matters. Right after that, you’ll start hearing how Ryan’s not an elite quarterback because he can’t win big games.

When you talk to him, Ryan is as smooth a conversationalist as you’ll find. He calls reporters by name and he’ll chitchat about their hometowns or the hat of the college football team they’re wearing. He’s nicknamed Matty Ice, and he’ll tell you he doesn’t feel pressure to get the playoff monkey off his back.

“Not that much,’’ Ryan said. “I think the past doesn’t really make a difference. We had opportunities; we didn’t take advantage of those. What matters is we put ourselves in this position again and we have an opportunity to move forward. So I don’t worry about it too much. I kind of just focus on trying to prepare and play well this week and doing everything we can to take advantage of the opportunity that we have.”

One thing has become clear so far in Ryan’s career: He’s always going to say the right thing. But there is pressure percolating just under the surface for Ryan, Smith and the rest of the Falcons and, despite their denials and calm demeanor, they have to be starting to feel it.

Forget that playoff loss to Arizona in the 2008 season. That was Ryan’s rookie year, the Falcons were on the road and Arizona was a team of destiny. But that loss to the Packers in the Georgia Dome in last season’s playoffs?

Point to that as the source of all the pressure that’s growing around the Falcons now. Atlanta went 13-3 last season and had a first-round bye. The Falcons were rested and healthy, but the Packers came to town and blew them out, 48-21.

After the game, Smith and Ryan looked as flustered as they’ve ever been. General manager Thomas Dimitroff and owner Arthur Blank are two other guys who look pretty calm most of the time, but you could almost see the smoke coming out of their ears that day, because they had seen a team that they thought was going to the Super Bowl get thoroughly embarrassed.

After things settled down a bit, Smith, Dimitroff and Blank sat down and decided they weren’t too far away. What they learned from the Green Bay loss was that they needed more explosiveness on both sides of the ball.

That’s why the Falcons made the daring trade that allowed them to draft wide receiver Julio Jones, and that’s why they signed defensive end Ray Edwards to a big contract in free agency. A lot of people said the Falcons were shooting for the Super Bowl or bust.

The expectations were raised but not met during the regular season. The Falcons struggled with inconsistency and finished 10-6. At times they were very good; at other times they were ordinary. But the playoffs bring a chance for Atlanta to finally meet those expectations.

“It’s more intense,’’ Smith said. “I think it’s more intense in your preparation as a football team. It starts early in the week and I think it becomes a very intense, energetic time when you’re playing in the playoffs because it’s a situation where you’re not going to have another game if you don’t win. Everybody’s playing to play through the end of January and into February.”

But the Falcons haven’t made it to the end of January or anywhere close to February in their previous tries. They’re on very stable ground, but you can’t stand still forever.

Blank has learned from and grown from past mistakes. He’s thrilled with the stability Smith and Ryan have brought to his franchise. But Blank’s also a competitive guy and he’s not going to be patient forever.

The same is true of the Atlanta fans. The consistent winning for four seasons has been nice.

But if Smith, Ryan and the rest of the Falcons are going to ease the pressure that’s simmering just below the surface, they need to win a playoff game. If they don’t, the peace and calm that’s surrounded the Falcons the past four years will start to disappear.

ATLANTA -- Fourteen games into the season, the Atlanta Falcons finally played how they were supposed to play.

They looked like the trendy Super Bowl pick they were back in the preseason. They played with the “explosiveness’’ coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff talked about so much in the offseason. They were explosive on both sides of the ball -- and even on special teams -- and played the closest thing they have all season to a perfect game.

That resulted in a 41-14 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night at the Georgia Dome.

Granted, Jacksonville is not a good team, but we saw the first real signs that Atlanta can be a truly good one.

“That’s what we need,’’ said quarterback Matt Ryan, who completed 19 of 26 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns. He also posted a 137.3 NFL passer rating, the second highest of his career. “But I still think we can be a lot better.’’

Maybe so. However, the Falcons were a lot closer to being a strong all-around team than they have been all season, and that's encouraging. At 9-5, the season had been marked by inconsistency and it never really seemed like the Falcons were meeting expectations.

Expectations ticked upward when Roddy White said the Falcons’ offense would be “The Greatest Show on Turf’’ and free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards referred to himself as the “missing link.’’

But White, Edwards and others were missing at times earlier in the season. Recently, though, there had been signs that things were coming together.

What we saw Thursday night went beyond just a few flashes. What we saw was the team Smith and Dimitroff envisioned when they traded up in the draft to get receiver Julio Jones, and went out and signed Edwards to a big contract.

The downfield passing game, which had come on a bit in recent weeks, really clicked. White and Jones each made deep catches. White finished with 10 receptions for 135 yards and two touchdowns, and Jones had five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.

“When you take shots downfield, you’ve got to just keep taking them,’’ Ryan said. “It’s like a shooter in basketball. Even if you’re not making the shots, you keep taking them because they’re going to come.’’

The offensive numbers could have been even more inflated, but Smith began pulling some of his starters late in the third quarter. Heck, the defensive statistics could have been even better, but they were pretty darn good.

Veteran defensive end John Abraham, the guy the Falcons wanted to help when they signed Edwards, had one of the best games of what has been a very impressive career. Abraham pretty much dominated the game.

He sacked rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert 3.5 times and forced two fumbles. Abraham’s first forced fumble came when he sacked Gabbert with 46 seconds left in the first half. Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton recovered, and the Falcons kicked a field goal to take a 27-0 halftime lead.

Abraham repeated the feat on Jacksonville’s third play of the third quarter -- only that Gabbert fumble was picked up by defensive tackle Corey Peters, who rumbled 13 yards for a touchdown.

“John Abraham had a monster night,’’ said Smith, who clinched his fourth consecutive winning season for a franchise that never had back-to-back winning seasons before his arrival.

Abraham had plenty of help. He shared a sack with Edwards, who also was credited with a quarterback hurry; reserve defensive end Kroy Biermann added a sack.

The Falcons were able to generate so much pressure on Gabbert with their front four that they seldom bothered to send blitzers. Having extra players in coverage was a big reason Gabbert had only 24 passing yards in the first half, and finished with 141 yards and an interception.

“[Gabbert] holds the ball a lot,’’ Abraham said.

Abraham took the ball out of Gabbert’s grasp, and the defense came awfully close to pitching a shutout. Jacksonville’s first touchdown came on a blocked punt in the third quarter, and its only offensive touchdown came with 59 seconds left, long after many of Atlanta’s defensive starters were out of the game.

“We played well on all cylinders,’’ Abraham said. “But I wouldn’t consider it a complete game. I’d consider it a good confidence-builder.’’

That confidence and the consistent play across the board could come in very handy. The Falcons don’t have to play again until the night after Christmas. That game is at New Orleans, and the Falcons have to win it to have any chance at becoming the first team in history to win NFC South titles in back-to-back seasons.

Smith set off a minor celebration after the game when he told the players they don’t have to practice again until Tuesday.

“Four or five days off couldn’t come at a better time,’’ Ryan said.

The break might also allow the Falcons to get injured cornerbacks Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) back on the field. Having a fully healthy secondary could be crucial against the pass-happy Saints, who defeated the Falcons in overtime in their Nov. 13 meeting in Atlanta.

That loss hit the Falcons hard, coming as it did against a Saints team with which they have kindled one of the league’s top rivalries in recent years.

But the Falcons will get another shot at the Saints. This time it comes when the Falcons seem to be playing up to their potential, and they should be rested and healthy.

“That’s the advantage of a short week,’’ Smith said. “You get a long week after it. That will give us time to prepare for a team that’s playing as well as any team in the league.’’