NFL Nation: Reality Check 2009

Reality check: Jets

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
12:03
PM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham


Are the New York Jets for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.

What the Jets have accomplished: They've quickly and forcefully responded to the cynics who insisted that rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez wasn't ready and rookie head coach Rex Ryan would require a transition phase to get his defense where it needed to be.
Al Bello/Getty Images
Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has played with poise in his first three games.

So much for either of those theories.

Both Sanchez and the Jets' defense have been superb. Sanchez has played with the command of a fourth-year pro. He has established a reasonably high standard of expectation each week with solid performances against the Houston Texans, New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans. The undefeated start has buoyed the confidence he arrived with. The kid is harboring no doubts, and that augers well.

But even more spectacular has been Ryan's aggressive defense. You had to think it would take the former Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator a few games to get the Jets' defense running how he wanted it, especially minus outside linebacker Calvin Pace. But it was humming from Jump Street. With the help of Ravens translators Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, the entire unit has picked up Ryan's devil-may-care philosophy and is thriving.

What’s ahead: It's easy to imagine the Jets getting better as the season evolves. Sanchez will get increasingly comfortable as the offensive leader. Pace will return from his suspension in Week 5.

They need to avoid a critical injury, and they must get their ground game churning. Perhaps the club's two biggest strengths heading into the season were the offensive line and talent at running back.

The Jets have two Pro Bowlers (Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) and the reigning Doak Walker Award winner (Iowa rookie Shonn Greene) in their backfield, but they're struggling to generate yards.

Jones is coming off one of the greatest rushing seasons in Jets history and led the AFC. But take away two long fourth-quarter runs in the season opener, and Jones is averaging 2.3 yards a carry.

Realistic outcome: Three games is a small sample, but based on what we've seen so far, the AFC East should come down to the Jets and Patriots.

The Miami Dolphins won't be able to defend their division title, not after stumbling to a 0-3 start and losing their leader, quarterback Chad Pennington, for the season. The Buffalo Bills appear to be playing over their heads a little. Injuries and inexperience on the offensive line will catch up with them eventually.

So maybe you can go ahead and call the Jets division favorites. They scored a victory over the Patriots in Week 2. But it's a long season, and the Patriots should improve as the season progresses. Slot receiver Wes Welker and linebacker Jerod Mayo will return from knee injuries. Their younger players will get better, too.

But how about this? The Jets will be done with their division schedule by Dec. 3, when they play the Bills in Toronto. If they can continue to stash away early victories, catching them in the final month will be extra difficult.

Reality Check: Giants

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
12:03
PM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley


Are the Giants for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.

 
  AP Photo/Stephan Savoia
  Giants coach Tom Coughlin has managed through tough injuries to start the season.
What they've accomplished: The Giants already have beaten two of their division rivals -- the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins -- and they manhandled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. More important, they've won all three games without some important players. Giants coach Tom Coughlin is one of the best in the league at dealing with adversity and the Giants have had plenty. Losing safety Kenny Phillips for the year with a knee injury is a tough setback and the Giants have been playing without cornerbacks Aaron Ross and Kevin Dockery. The win over the Cowboys was certainly the most impressive. There was a ton of emotion inside Cowboys Stadium that night, but the Giants kept their poise. I think most of us believe the Giants are "for real."

What's ahead: The Giants have had a long injury list each week and now we can add running back Ahmad Bradshaw. I think there are a couple injuries along the offensive line -- tackle Kareem McKenzie and guard Rich Seubert -- that could linger. The Giants have some good depth at most positions, so they'll have to be really smart about managing all the injuries. In terms of schedule, the Giants should be fine against the Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) and Oakland Raiders (1-2) the next two weeks. Things will get interesting when they travel to New Orleans to play the Saints (3-0) on Oct. 18. But there's a three-week stretch in December that should help tell the story. The Giants will play division opponents in consecutive weeks. I think they'll be sitting alone in first place after that stretch. And honestly, they'll probably have a little cushion heading into those games.

Realistic outcome: Even some of the best teams are going to have a hiccup along the way. Last year's Giants team faltered against the Cleveland Browns, but they bounced back and made a good run leading up to Plaxico Burress' evening in the Latin Quarter. I think it's very realistic to think this team could go 13-3 -- and 14-2 would not shock me. Circle the Nov. 1 game at Philly. If the Giants win that one, they should be in the driver's seat for the division title. I just don't see that many stumbling blocks -- especially for a team that loves playing on the road.

Reality Check: Broncos

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
12:01
PM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com’s Bill Williamson


Are the Broncos for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
Coach Josh McDaniels has the Broncos playing well going into the tough portion of the schedule.

What they’ve accomplished: The Broncos are one of the most intriguing of the seven teams to go undefeated thus far. Many around the league thought it would take Denver all season to win three games after a tumultuous offseason. But the Broncos have been outstanding in the early going. No, they haven't conquered world-beaters as they defeated Cincinnati (on a miraculous last-second play), Cleveland and Oakland. But any win in the NFL is impressive and two of the Broncos’ victories have come on the road. Denver absolutely dominated Cleveland and Oakland. The Broncos are playing fantastic defense and have allowed a league-low 16 points. The defense is much improved and it appears to be very physical. Offensively, new head coach Josh McDaniels has his system working. It is playing timely offense, fueled by a strong running game. The Broncos make few mistakes and are very prepared. It’s early, but Denver is clicking.

What’s ahead: We’re going to find out if Denver is a contender or a pretender in the coming weeks. Denver faces top teams in eight of its next 10 contests. It also plays at Philadelphia in Week 16. Denver's next five games are at home against Dallas and New England and on the road at San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Games against the New York Giants and Indianapolis also loom. I guess the 1972 Dolphins and 1985 Bears were busy. This is a tough stretch and the Broncos know it. But Denver is confident, well-prepared and McDaniels knows a lot about playing in pressure games. The team is healthy and it feels like it can navigate this stretch competitively.

Realistic outcome: It is very difficult to expect the Broncos to run through this schedule without difficulty. But early success gives Denver some breathing room. If Denver goes 5-5 in the next 10 games it will be 8-5 and probably in the playoff mix heading to the stretch run. Denver has to keep winning at home and steal a couple of road games. It has to take advantage of its two remaining games against Kansas City and its home game against Oakland. Denver can’t stumble in winnable games. If Denver can stay healthy, I think it can stay in the race. This doesn’t look like a team that will fall apart. I think it will only get better under McDaniels. Realistically, the Broncos can be a factor in the playoff race.

Reality Check: Ravens

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
12:01
PM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com’s James Walker


Are the Ravens for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.

What they’ve accomplished: The Ravens have jumped out to a 3-0 start, but they’re also 7-1 in their past eight games dating back to their playoff run last season. (They also went 4-0 in the preseason.) So this is a team accustomed to winning and that had high expectations even before the national media began to catch on.
James Lang/US Presswire
A fast start to the season has Joe Flacco in the early MVP conversation.

Second-year quarterback Joe Flacco placed himself in the early MVP conversation with 839 yards, six touchdowns and a 101.4 passer rating in his first three games. His maturation has single-handedly altered Baltimore from a defense-heavy team to a balanced team that can beat you in a variety of ways. The Ravens are second in the NFL in total offense and seventh in total defense.

A fast start has Baltimore one game ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) and two games ahead of the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) in the rugged AFC North.

What’s ahead: The Ravens have three very tough games coming up, starting Sunday on the road against the New England Patriots (2-1). That will be a statement game involving two AFC contenders who may also meet at some point in the playoffs. Then the Ravens face the upstart Bengals (2-1) and NFC powerhouse Minnesota Vikings (3-0) in back-to-back weeks.

Baltimore will learn a lot about itself in those three games. The Ravens could certainly benefit from winning in this stretch not only in terms of respect, but also from the standpoint of potential tiebreakers. Barring an unexpected collapse, the Ravens will be one of the six AFC playoff teams this year. So seeding is very important.

Last season, Baltimore was able to win two straight road games in the playoffs before running out of gas in its third road game in the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh.

Realistic outcome: Health permitting, the sky is the limit for the Ravens. AFC North teams have a great track record in the playoffs this decade, and it seems that it took a fast start to remind people Baltimore was just one quarter away from reaching the Super Bowl last season.

The Ravens are picking up where they left off and appear even more dangerous this season. They're one of the few teams that can win games in a lot of different ways. The Ravens can beat you running the football. Now they can beat you passing the football. And they were always able to win with defense.

Baltimore nearly reached the Super Bowl the hard way last year. But if the Ravens continue to take care of business in the regular season, making other teams come through M&T Bank Stadium would make their goal of getting to Miami a lot easier to achieve.

Reality Check: Vikings

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
12:00
PM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert


Are the Vikings for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.
Podcast: Football Today
Get into the 3-Point Stance with Len Pasquarelli on the latest news, and Kevin Seifert discusses the powerful NFC North. Football Today


What they’ve accomplished: Minnesota’s first two wins came against Cleveland and Detroit, who are a combined 1-5. In each game, the Vikings trailed at halftime before storming back in the third quarter. They made it to 3-0 on the strength of Brett Favre’s miraculous 32-yard touchdown pass to Greg Lewis with 12 seconds remaining Sunday against San Francisco.

Along the way, they’ve proved their offense is most effective when it runs through tailback Adrian Peterson, not Favre. Their defense uncharacteristically gave up 218 rushing yards in the first two games, but it clamped down hard on the 49ers. One major area of concern: Already their special teams have given up two touchdowns, putting them on a pace to shatter last year’s NFL record of seven special teams touchdowns.

There are no style awards in the NFL, of course, so the nature of the journey matters little relative to where it ends.
Genevieve Ross/Getty Images
Will Brett Favre lead the Vikings to the promised land or break down after Week 11?

What’s ahead: All four games against their primary NFC North competitors, Green Bay and Chicago, starting with Monday night’s showdown with the Packers. The Vikings also face a difficult out-of-division slate of games, including matchups against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants.

Honestly, the biggest obstacle the Vikings face is Favre’s stamina. He’s already taken a number of brutal hits as he approaches his 40th birthday and semi-joked that he was ready to collapse Sunday during his postgame news conference.

As we discussed this spring, Favre’s production has dropped dramatically after his 11th game in each of the past four seasons. The Vikings are a good team without Favre, but their hopes for a push to the Super Bowl depend on him maintaining a high level of play for all 16 games.

Realistic outcome: Based on their talent level, the Vikings should be considered among a handful of early favorites to win the NFC. They would consider it a huge disappointment if they didn’t win the division and advance at least a couple of games through the playoffs. This team is built to win now.

Think of everything it has going for it. The Williams Wall in all likelihood will remain intact as the StarCaps legal issue works its way through Minnesota courts. The Vikings have their best quarterback since Daunte Culpepper challenged for the MVP award in 2004. They have an early favorite for Rookie of the Year in Percy Harvin, one of the league’s top pass-rushers in Jared Allen and a great clutch kicker in Ryan Longwell. There aren’t many holes here, and so far all of their bets have paid off.

Reality Check: Saints

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
12:00
PM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas


Are the Saints for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.
Luc Leclerc/US Presswire
Pierre Thomas rushed for 126 yards and two scores in the Saints' Week 3 win over Buffalo.


What they’ve accomplished: The 3-0 start is probably better than any realistic expectation in the preseason. The Saints were supposed to be without starting defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant for the first four games, but the NFL decided on the eve of the season to at least postpone their suspensions. Although Smith and Grant have been painted as underachievers in the past, they’re playing well as part of a rebuilt New Orleans defense. That’s been a key in the fast start as the Saints have had road wins against Buffalo and Philadelphia. The defense has gotten better each game and the Buffalo win showed the Saints don’t always need to rely on their offense. There also has been a little luck involved with the Saints facing Matthew Stafford and Kevin Kolb in their first career starts. But this team is in line for a little luck after going through a bunch of injuries and a brutal schedule that featured an international game last year.

What’s ahead: Sunday’s game with the Jets suddenly has become a showdown of undefeated teams, and the Superdome should be rocking with enthusiasm. The remaining schedule does include teams like the Giants and Patriots, but it also includes two games with Tampa Bay and Carolina and single games with St. Louis and Washington. The Saints have a bye next week and that will help running backs Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas rest up and that’s a positive. It’s been nothing but positives for this team so far. At worst, the Saints will go through the first quarter of the schedule at 3-1.

Realistic outcome: The Saints already have created separation with the rest of the NFC South, and Atlanta remains the only realistic challenger. With Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey healthy, the New Orleans offense is even better than last year and Drew Brees is having a an MVP type of season. The defense already is solid under new coordinator Gregg Williams and it should only get better in time. The Saints finally have balance throughout the team and that should pay off with a playoff berth. This team might be able to go deep into the playoffs if it continues to click on both sides of the ball.

Reality Check: Colts

October, 1, 2009
10/01/09
11:59
AM ET

Other 3-0 teams: Giants | Vikings | Saints | Jets | Ravens | Colts | Broncos

Posted by ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky


Are the Colts for real? The NFL Blog Network breaks down each of the seven teams that started the season 3-0.

What they’ve accomplished: The Colts ' road to 3-0 has featured three distinctly different styles of wins.

They held on in a nail-biter against Jacksonville, scoring only 14 points but getting a good defensive effort and preventing the Jaguars from driving to a field goal at the end that could have won it.

In front of a "Monday Night Football" audience they saw the Dolphins execute the keep-away formula with great success. But even with less than 15 minutes of possession, Peyton Manning was able to engineer enough offense to win.

In Arizona in Week 3, the Colts got a well-rounded effort, making the Cardinals pay for mistakes on both sides of the ball and coasting to their most comfortable victory.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Peyton Manning’s consistency at quarterback is a big reason the Colts are 3-0.

Manning has been incredibly precise, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and getting the lion’s share of the balls to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, while finding some big plays to Pierre Garcon after losing Anthony Gonzalez to injury early in the opener.

They won all three despite continuing difficulties running (86 yards a game, 3.5 a carry) and stopping the run (125.7 yards a game, 4.3 a carry).

Not only have things gone well for the Colts, but they’ve seen things go badly for their three division rivals, meaning they’ve already built a significant lead on the 1-2 Texans and Jaguars and the 0-3 Titans.

The Colts are at 3-0 for the fifth time in the last seven years. Running out to a lead in the AFC South is a way of life for the Colts since realignment. It’s a tiring way of life for the rest of the division. Indianapolis is the rabbit, everyone else a greyhound.

“It is remarkable they’ve been able to do it,” Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio said. “You know, they really could have been 0-2. We had a shot and ended up losing 14-12. Miami certainly had a shot and the Colts end up pulling that one out. So, got to give them credit, they’re making the division chase them again and that’s something they’ve been able to do over the last seven or eight years.”

What’s ahead: Indianapolis has its toughest work ahead. It has two games against Tennessee, which will be desperate to make up ground and knows how to play the Colts close, and two against Houston, a team determined to close the gap. The Colts also get San Francisco, New England, Baltimore, Denver and the Jets.

The Titans, 49ers, Ravens, Broncos and Jets are all equipped to play the sort of game the Dolphins did against Indianapolis, running the ball and doing everything possible to minimize Manning’s time on the field. Third-down defense is one area that will have to improve to prevent such blueprints from working. So far, the Colts are allowing offenses to convert half their chances. One other issue that hasn’t been big yet but could be is left tackle, where Charlie Johnson hasn’t proved to bee a 16-game-caliber guy yet.

But even as things get more difficult, this team looks capable of weathering the stretches of games it labels “storms.”

“I do think one thing, we have a mentally tough team,” Manning said. “We don’t really get distracted very easily. We’re prepared for what we call storms. You might have some storms, which are things that just kind of go bad. We handle those. We overcome those. We put the previous series behind us, either offensively or defensively.

"Whether it’s a touchdown or it’s a fumble or an interception, it’s over with right away, and we move on to the next series. I think that’s something you have to do in close games, and you truly concentrate on the series or the play at hand. Hopefully, you can execute it when it comes down to it.”

Realistic outcome: The Colts have won 12 or more games in a record six consecutive seasons, and there is no reason to conclude that barring major injuries they won’t extend the string.

While mainstay players like Manning, Wayne, Clark, Jeff Saturday, Ryan Lilja, Dwight Freeney (currently hurt), Robert Mathis and Antoine Bethea continue to play well, young contributors like Garcon, Austin Collie, Donald Brown and Tyjuan Hagler are improving and adding more.

An AFC South title certainly looks like a realistic outcome for the Colts. Whether they can get a Lombardi Trophy to pair with the one they brought home from 2006 is another question.

They’ve misfired in the playoffs more often than not. But in a year when pundits went heavily with New England and Pittsburgh as the AFC favorites, Indianapolis could just as easily advance to represent the conference in Miami on Feb. 7.
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