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MIAMI -- Tony Dungy wasn't the only one who thought the Indianapolis Colts would blow out the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV.

"I did too," Colts tackle Ryan Diem said Sunday night.

The Saints' 31-17 victory proved quite a few people wrong, most notably Dungy, who should have known better than to suggest Peyton Manning would breeze through the Saints' defense on his way to a second Super Bowl title.

"I think they're going to be so far ahead," the former Colts coach had told the New York Times, "that people are going to say, 'Oh, ho-hum, he played a good game, they won by two scores, the Colts won their second championship.' "

The comments created a ripple, but Dungy mostly got a free pass while Gregg Williams, the Saints' less stately defensive coordinator, took heat for suggesting the New Orleans defense would rough up Manning with "remember-me" hits.

Dungy's prediction read more like something from Rex Ryan at an MMA event than anything befitting the man NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has anointed as league ambassador. The prediction was so strong, so unflinching, so seeming inconsistent with Dungy's usual form that I figured he had to be right. Certainly Dungy wouldn't speak out so strongly if the Saints were the better team.

"I don't think it's going to be close," Dungy had said.

The Colts were going to win in a blowout.

"A blowout?" Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma said. "Well, it didn't happen."

The Saints needed overtime to beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship game even though Minnesota suffered from five turnovers, critical penalties and questionable coaching decisions. Logic said the Colts would never suffer so many mistakes. But logic would also fail to explain what the Saints were feeling. From their perspective, this was the only just outcome after the organization stuck it out in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina.

Manning and the Colts were a great team, perhaps even the better team on paper, but the Saints felt they were playing for a greater purpose.

"They are really hard to prepare for," Saints linebacker Scott Fujita said of the Colts, "but the Saints were on a mission and for us it was about much more than just football -- much more than just football.

"I think you could see the stadium, we must have had Colts fans outnumbered six, seven to one. Throughout the city all week, the black and gold just poured into Miami to take over the city. I'm getting text messages all week from friends in the U.K., friends in Italy, saying the whole football world is behind us. This is bigger than just the game. The Saints are the world's team."

The Saints defied convention with an onside kick to open the second half. They went for it on fourth down when a field goal would have been the politically safe call. Cornerback Tracy Porter jumped the route for the interception he returned 74 yards for the clinching touchdown with 3:12 remaining.

We could view these high-stakes gambles as the Saints' acknowledgment that taking chances was their only hope against Manning, but that would be missing the mark. The Saints bet big on themselves and won.

"We have been the best team in the NFC," safety Roman Harper said. "We knew nobody was going to give it to us. We have to go out there and take it. Nobody picked us, nobody believed in us but us and ourselves and our locker room and our city and our families. We went out and proved everybody wrong today."

Starting with Tony Dungy.

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Once the season reached the conference championship games, Bill Cowher knew that he had to support one team in particular.

"I was pulling for the Jets because that was old-time football," Cowher said. "That was run the ball, play defense."

Sounds downright archaic, doesn't it? Run, run, run. Tackle, tackle, tackle. Win a 17-14 game if you have to.

The NFL has evolved into a passing game. The best teams know how to throw the ball well and often. The Super Bowl features the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints, the second- and fourth-ranked passing teams. The NFC Championship Game was a duel between the NFL's top two quarterbacks based on passer rating.

That's why Cowher was so sentimental about the ground-and-pound Jets.

"The game has changed," Cowher said. "It caters to throwing. Clearly, if you have a quarterback you can do so much more. It's a game that definitely has gone [against] the defense. Quarterbacks can't get hit. Receivers can't get hit. Anybody going over the middle can't get hit."

Cowher foresees a more balanced Jets offense next season. Behind backfield bulldozers Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, they led the NFL in rushing at 172.2 yards a game, but they ranked 31st in passing at 148.8 yards a game.

No team threw fewer passes than the Jets did. The Buffalo Bills were closest, but threw 48 more times.

"What the Jets did with Mark Sanchez, they took a rookie quarterback and went pretty far with him," Cowher said. "Now they've got to expand that by throwing, but don't lose sight of the foundation."

A few days after creating a bit of a ruckus, Oakland Raiders corner Nnamdi Asomugha says he was kidding when he told me and a couple of other reporters he and New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis lobbied Jets coach Rex Ryan to put them on the field together.

While my blog about Asomugha's comments was written with a fanciful tone and pointed out the proposal was fantasy, I did ask him several followup questions in an attempt to measure his sincerity.

"I'm dead serious," Asomugha told me on the Sun Life Stadium field after Sunday night's Pro Bowl. Since his comments were posted, other outlets, most notably Pro Football Talk, speculated about possible tampering charges for the Jets.

"The only thing we were 'dead serious' about was the fact that it would be fun to one day play on the same team. That's all," Asomugha wrote in an e-mail to San Francisco Chronicle reporter David White. "We were two guys enjoying the Pro Bowl and completely clowning around during the week. We were playfully recruiting each other; I was talking about getting him to Oakland and vice versa."

Asomugha also wrote he's "a proud Oakland Raider" and wanted to terminate any notions he wants out.

White goes on to explain that Asomugha is known as a jokester with a deadpan delivery.

MIAMI -- One night after New York Jets coach Rex Ryan upheld his rivalry with the Miami Dolphins, one of his players maintained an ongoing feud with a divisional foe.

After the AFC defeated the NFC 41-34 in the Pro Bowl on Sunday night, Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis rehashed what has turned into a delectable grudge match with New England Patriots receiver Randy Moss.

"Will he fight through tough coverage? Everybody knows Randy Moss," Revis said. "Sometimes he takes plays off. Sometimes he don't. That's his game now. He's still a great player, and he still manages to make plays."

Revis also said Patriots slot receiver Wes Welker is tougher to cover than Moss.

"He's a scrapper," Revis said of Welker. "He can do all the option routes you can draw up, and he gets open all the time."

Two weeks ago, Revis called Moss a "slouch" during an interview with NFL Network analyst Deion Sanders. During the season, Revis and Moss went back and forth over perceived lack of respect.

Moss had four receptions for 24 yards against Revis in Week 2 but claimed Revis had significant help from safety Kerry Rhodes.

"Just trying to cover it up because Randy Moss didn't have a great game," Revis said Sunday night. "You always see Randy Moss catching 160 yards, 180 yards, two, three touchdowns. That day wasn't his day. That happens sometimes in football.

"My thing is, just give respect to where it's due and next time try to game plan better to make plays."

In their Week 11 rematch, Moss had five receptions for 34 yards and a point-blank touchdown Revis couldn't be blamed for allowing.

As for Ryan giving Dolfans the finger Saturday night in South Florida, Revis said: "We're still human. People got feelings. People do things. It's not the right thing to do, but he did it. He did the right thing by apologizing. Now you just move forward."

MIAMI -- A few AFC thoughts and observations from its 41-34 victory in Sunday night's Pro Bowl at Sun Life Stadium.

I just heard one of the scariest ideas anybody has mentioned to me in a long time.

The AFC's starting cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha, want to play on the same team. As fantastical as that notion might be, it's frightening to consider.

Oakland Raiders star Asomugha was smiling when he brought up the dream scenario, but insisted he was "dead serious" and has spoken to New York Jets coach Rex Ryan about it.

"Me and Revis have been talking to Rex to try to do something," Asomugha said. "You may see us in the future. There's a little bit of talk going on. Either he's coming to Oakland or something else will happen."

Said Revis: "Me and him have talked about it, but I can't really control that situation. I don't know if he can either."

As much of a nightmare as it would be for opposing quarterbacks, it would be just as daunting for a team's capologist to figure out a way to pay them both. Asomugha has two years left on a three-year, $45.3 million contract that made him the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history.

Revis, considered by most to be the NFL's top cover cornerback, might make more than that soon.

"That's a lot of money they're going to be pushing around," Revis said, "but that'll be tough for quarterbacks. I'll tell you that."

Revis and Asomugha on the field together would elicit memories of Mike Haynes and Lester Hayes for the Oakland Raiders in the 1980s.

"In a league where the art of man-to-man has kind of gone out of style, that could bring it back," Asomugha said.

"You always want that as a player, to have that guy on the other side of you that's equally as talented and can make plays. It fuels you a little bit. We'd been joking around with [AFC coach] Norv Turner throughout practices all week, and with [NFL commissioner] Roger Goodell. He said they probably wouldn't allow us on the same team."

Denver Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil wasn't thrilled to see defensive coordinator Mike Nolan leave for the Miami Dolphins.

Dolfans would love for them to reunite in South Florida.

"It's a possibility," Dumervil said, "but we'll see what happens in Denver."

Dumervil would be an unrestricted free agent if the owners and players hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement by March 5. But an uncapped season seems inevitable, and in that case, Dumervil would be a restricted free agent because he wouldn’t have the required number of accrued seasons.

Dumervil led the NFL with 17 sacks in his lone season under Nolan.

"It was great playing with him," Dumervil said. "I only got to play with him one year, but I had fun, I probably had one of my best years. I felt I was productive throughout my career before Nolan, but being able to move to linebacker enhanced my durability and allowed me to be more effective down the stretch."

I asked if other Pro Bowlers have been in his ear, lobbying to get him interested in joining their teams.

"That would be tampering," Dumervil said. "I can't snitch on nobody."

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback David Garrard went to the Pro Bowl with a chip on his shoulder.

Garrard made the Pro Bowl roster as a bazillionth alternate. But he made it because of a series of injuries and Peyton Manning reaching the Super Bowl.

Garrard completed eight of 14 passes for 183 yards and one touchdown for a 125.6 passer rating.

"It's so awesome," Garrard said. "One of my goals coming into the game was to just be relevant and show all of the people who said 'What is he doing in there? The Pro Bowl had dropped off a few pegs,' that I do belong."

Cincinnati Bengals receiver Chad Ochocinco badly wanted to reprise his preseason kicking exhibition against the New England Patriots and kick a field goal or an extra point in the Pro Bowl.

Miami Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter had given his blessing on a final field goal in the waning moments, but the AFC ran out the clock.

"The game was too close for me to go out there and have fun," Ochocinco said. "Usually, if we were up by a little bit, it would've been fun to go do it, but it was too close to even attempt it."

MIAMI -- The line that separates fun-loving and juvenile is a thin one.

New York Jets coach Rex Ryan crossed it Saturday night, when he was caught on camera displaying a middle finger to Miami Dolphins fans at a mixed martial arts event in Sunrise, Fla.

Ryan has flirted with trouble all season because of his gregarious personality and recently reiterated his regret over getting into a sophomoric exchange with Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder during training camp.

Yes, Ryan is hilarious. But occasionally he goes too far and embarrasses the Jets.

"It was stupid and inappropriate," Ryan said in a statement released by the club. "I wouldn't accept that type of behavior from one of the coaches or players and it’s unacceptable from me. I apologize to the Jets organization, the National Football League and NFL fans everywhere."

Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum admonished Ryan.

"Rex showed extremely poor judgment, and his conduct was inappropriate," Tannenbaum said in the statement. "He knows he was wrong, has apologized and we have accepted his apology. Any other actions regarding this incident will be addressed internally by the organization."

The NFL has been known to impose fines for obscene gestures. Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams was fined $250,000 for giving the Buffalo Bills sideline a double middle finger salute from his suite in November. Newsday's Bob Glauber reports the NFL will look into the Ryan situation.

On the humiliation scale, what Ryan did seems pretty minor in my book. He's out in public, not at an NFL event, apparently not wearing Jets gear and presumably getting badgered enough by Dolfans to respond.

That said, as head coach of the Jets, Ryan will find himself in many similar encounters with his brash personality. He's easily recognizable, and he needs to be prepared to handle taunts from opposing fans, especially when he's on the turf of a divisional rival.

"I'd like to thank everybody here in Miami. I know they love me," Ryan said with a grin during a ringside interview shown within Bank Atlantic Center.

"I want to just tell everybody in Miami, hey, we're coming to beat you twice next year."

Yeah, that might get the Dolfans a tad restless.

The Jets went to the AFC title game this year, but the Dolphins beat them both times they played.

INDIANAPOLIS -- There's no way to think beyond the pain when the incision still stings and the inflammation throbs.

The New York Jets weren't interested in talking about great accomplishments or exceeding logical expectations, not so soon after Peyton Manning's surgical performance drained their postseason life.

"It's too fresh of a wound to say anything to make yourself feel better," Jets safety Jim Leonhard said of any buck-up-little-camper talk.

The Jets' charmed season ended Sunday amid a blizzard of blue and white glitter fired from sideline cannons in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Indianapolis Colts came from behind to jilt the Jets 30-17 for the AFC crown.

"Everybody's disappointed that we didn't go to the Super Bowl, especially when we were this close," Jets left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson said, almost spitting out the words. "We didn't do everything that we needed to win. But at the same rate, we did do a lot of great things.

"I can't even say we're second. Nobody wants to be third or fourth. Maybe in a week or two it will be different."

Implausible as it seemed before the game, the Jets looked like they would sabotage the coronation, giving the crowd of 67,650 a collective coronary by building an 11-point lead late in the second quarter.

Manning calmly swayed momentum before halftime and, by the third quarter, staked the Jets in the heart -- repeatedly.

"With Peyton Manning, if you can't disrupt his rhythm he's going to kill you," Jets coach Rex Ryan said, "and we couldn't disrupt it enough."

And so it ended for the Jets, their captivating run falling about 23 minutes short of the Super Bowl.

The Jets have plenty to be thrilled about for the future, but they couldn't bring themselves to consider any of it.

"It's hard to be proud right now, but we came a long way," left guard Alan Faneca mumbled with a dismissive shrug. "We fought through a lot of stuff. We came together as a team. Yeah, there's stuff to be proud of."

The Jets defied the odds over the past couple months.

They trudged onward without Pro Bowl nose tackle Kris Jenkins, Pro Bowl kick returner and running back Leon Washington and special-teams legend Larry Izzo, all lost to season-ending injuries along the way.

They helped rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez decipher the NFL in the nick of time. Even though Ryan declared them mathematically eliminated from the postseason race after Week 15, they won their final two games and received an astronomical amount of outside help to slip into the playoffs.

On the road throughout the playoffs, the Jets upset a pair of division champs to reach Indianapolis, known as the Crossroads of America.

The Jets might look back on Sunday as the crossroads of their organization.

"Maybe this football team needed to get here and have this experience in order to take the next step," Leonhard said. "We thought we were ready this year. Maybe we weren't. We have to take this experience and learn from it."

There were all sorts of reasons for Sunday's loss:

• Rookie running back Shonn Greene, their playoff MVP, suffered a rib injury in the third quarter and carried 10 times for 41 yards. The Jets' offense stalled in his absence, failing to score again.
• Inside linebacker Bart Scott's ankle injury carried into the game and rendered him "a one-legged man," Ryan said. Scott made two tackles.
• The Jets decided to use young cornerback Dwight Lowery instead of veteran Lito Sheppard, a move Manning said pleasantly surprised him. Nickel back Donald Strickland went down with a groin injury in the first quarter.
• Darrelle Revis playing like an All-Pro wasn't enough. Manning made Revis Island seem like Grenada.
• Jay Feely missed field goals from 44 yards and 52 yards, not only failing to score points, but also forfeiting prime field position.

Even so, dissecting what went into the final score of a single excruciating game is pointless when you have much broader issues to reflect upon and such a luminescent future ahead.

The Jets are an organization on the rise. As Leonhard mentioned a few times, "You never know when an opportunity like this is going to come again." But the Jets established themselves as a team to fear for years to come.

A foundation for long-term success is well in place. They're a defensive colossus and will get Jenkins back next season. The Jets might have the NFL's best offensive line, with Pro Bowlers from center to left tackle.

Perhaps even more significant, Sanchez grew up before our eyes over the final five weeks. He played with poise Sunday, completing 17 of 30 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns with one interception that was overthrown but also tipped.

"Mark played great, and hopefully that's the thing that we're seeing from this point on," Ryan said. "You see that confidence that he has. He knows our offense. He's comfortable.

"When we come back, we'll be able to hit the ground running, which obviously is a lot different than how we entered this season."

We probably saw the baton passed from veteran running back Thomas Jones to Greene. Second-year tight end Dustin Keller emerged as a money target with a touchdown reception in each of their three playoff games.

"We're close. There is no question," Ryan said. "We accomplished a heck of a lot. We thought we could win it all. We really did. We don't need a whole lot."

Except maybe some time to heal.

INDIANAPOLIS -- The New York Jets pushed for about as long as a team could without reaching the Super Bowl.

The Jets held a two-score lead in the first half and led by four points almost 37 minutes into their AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts.

The Jets couldn't land the knockout blow on the mighty Colts and eventually succumbed to Peyton Manning's pinpoint passes.

Manning delighted a record Lucas Oil Stadium crowd by leading the Colts back to a 30-17 victory and snuffing a magical Jets campaign that exceeded anyone's expectations outside of their own.

With the Super Bowl in sight, the Jets seemed to be a team of destiny. Head coach Rex Ryan declared them eliminated from the playoff hunt after a Week 15 loss, but the planets aligned and they slipped into the tournament. Then the Jets beat a pair of division champions on the road to reach the AFC title game.

The Colts rolled up 461 yards on the NFL's best defense.

The Jets' top-ranked pass defense allowed 153.7 yards per game in the regular season, but Manning fired all over the field for 377 yards and three touchdowns, two in the second half.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez was sensational for most of the day, completing a lot of difficult throws. He went 17-of-30 for 257 yards and two touchdowns with an interception.

New York's offense took a hit when running back Shonn Greene suffered a rib injury. Green was the offensive catalyst in the first two playoff games, but with him sidelined for much of the game, banged-up veteran Thomas Jones was forced to carry the load.

Jones finished with a team-high 42 rushing yards, a far cry from what the ground-and-pound Jets were used to all season.

INDIANAPOLIS -- AFC South raconteur Paul Kuharsky and I were sharing a plate of wings when NFL reporter Sal Paolantonio stopped by our booth.

Paolantonio, while unashamedly swiping celery sticks from our plate, shared an exchange he had a few minutes earlier with Buddy Ryan after the New York Jets arrived at their downtown hotel for Sunday afternoon's AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Ryan predicted a shutout victory for the New York Jets.

Buddy Ryan's son, Rex, is trying to get the Jets into their first Super Bowl since they defeated the Baltimore Colts 41 years ago. Buddy Ryan was a Jets assistant coach. A guy named Joe Namath made a bold proclamation before that game.

Paolantonio, who as a Philadelphia Inquirer reporter rode shotgun with Buddy Ryan when the Eagles' team bus circled Soldier Field the night before the infamous Fog Bowl in 1988, jotted down the dialogue so I could share it on the blog.

Sal Paolantonio: "What do you think of the Jets' chances?"

Buddy Ryan: "Well, we were 16-point underdogs in '68. What are the Jets, seven-point underdogs? So we got a good chance."

SP: "How will you know it's going well in the first half?"

BR: "Nobody scores."

SP: "What's your prediction for the game?"

BR: "Twelve-nuthin'."

INDIANAPOLIS -- For weeks I've been harping on how critical it is for the New York Jets to maintain a one-score game. That allows them to keep pounding the ball and prevents them from leaving their fate to Mark Sanchez's rookie right arm.

There's another type of one-score game the Jets must be mindful of Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.

A score, as in Gettysburg address parlance, also means 20. That's been a magical number of points for the Jets. When they've surrendered 20 or more points this season, they are 0-5. When they've allowed less than 20 points, they are 11-2.

The Jets gave up an NFL best 14.8 points per game in the regular season. They've allowed 14 in each of their playoff victories over the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers.

"It's still a burr in my saddle that we gave up seven touchdowns without the defense being on the field because that number would be less than that," Ryan said this week at the Jets' facility in Florham Park, N.J. "It's just that it shows that we understand how to keep people out of the end zone for the most part."

The most points the Jets yielded in a victory this season was 17 against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3. The Jets also held the Atlanta Falcons to 10 points in Week 15, but lost.

The Colts averaged 26 points in the regular season and posted 20 on the Baltimore Ravens last weekend.

"They score about as well as anybody," Ryan said. "So it's a huge challenge. If we're going to keep Indianapolis from scoring 14 points, that's even a stretch for me to say. I know one thing: We're darn sure going to try."

Ryan-influenced defenses have had their troubles against Colts quarterback Peyton Manning.

Since Ryan joined the Ravens' defensive staff in 1999, his teams have given up an average of 26.1 points a game, not counting the Week 16 game in which Colts coach Jim Caldwell pulled Manning with almost six minutes left in the third quarter.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Jim Caldwell inherited a plum job when Tony Dungy left the Colts. Skeptics say all he had to do was not mess up a good thing.

He hasn’t.

The Colts' half of the first tandem of rookie coaches to work against each other in a conference championship game likes to keep things simple.

But he’s also done plenty to put his imprint on the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, too.

Unlike Rex Ryan of the Jets (Here’s Tim Graham’s companion post on Ryan) and a very high percentage of new NFL coaches, Caldwell didn’t have to engineer a culture change and he didn’t have to take part in a roster retooling. In the time he might have spent doing that somewhere else, he’s been able to focus on other details that have helped ensure the Colts maintained their standards.

When it comes to communicating with his team, the root of his weekly message isn’t a sermon, it’s bullet points. Or, more specifically, bullet words.

Three words.

Each week he starts Wednesday with an explanation of those three words. Each pregame he bangs again on those points of emphasis.

“I think it’s a very effective way to get his point across and you’re not working with Mensa members in here most of the time,” guard Ryan Lilja said. “Keep it simple stupid, know what I mean? You jot those things down, you hang on to them all week.

“Before the game you don’t want to read six paragraphs of notes from every meetings. You want to say, ‘You know what, let’s play with passion and pride and confidence this week’ or whatever it may be.”

Want this week's words? Yeah, me too. They're not telling.

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Jim Caldwell quietly eased into his promotion as Indianapolis Colts head coach. The transition was virtually seamless when Tony Dungy retired, abdicating to his designated heir.

Then there's Rex Ryan, the New York Jets coach who arrived with an eruption and set about an upheaval of an entire organization's persona.

This was no caretaker of successes past. Ryan, with a magnetism as large as his physique, a gravitational pull as it were, quickly became the center of the Jets' universe.

Ryan and Caldwell will intersect orbits Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Rookie head coaches never have squared off for a conference title. One of them will be the fifth rookie coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl.

AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky wrote about Caldwell's straightforward and succinct approach to coaching the Colts. He won 14 regular-season games, an eye-popping amount, yet only two more than the year before.

Ryan, meanwhile, finished the regular season 9-7, the same record as the Jets did last year under Eric Mangini. But their versions couldn't have been more different.

"This wasn't about Eric," Ryan said this week at the Jets' facility. "This was about me coming in. I was going to be true to myself. I never really needed to get advice from anybody else. I was coming here, open minded. I just wanted to put our plan in place, and that was what I focused on. It wasn't about things were done this way or that way. That meant nothing.

"I could have followed anybody here, but I was going to try to put together what I thought was a vision for our team and building a winner."

Ryan has transformed the culture in Florham Park. The Jets toiled under the austere watch of Mangini, who was fired after falling short of the playoffs with Brett Favre slinging interceptions about.

Now the Jets are all about fun and smack talk. The players are free to speak their minds, and with Ryan in charge their minds entertain fanciful thoughts. He talks them up like they're superstars. He makes bold predictions about meeting Barack Obama in the White House and being Super Bowl favorites after barely qualifying for the playoffs.

"You've got to prove him right," Jets safety Kerry Rhodes said. "If he has that much confidence in you to say that you're the best, you've got to go out there and prove it for him.

"When he says stuff, he's not just saying it to say it. At the end of the day, he's held accountable for what he says. If you don't live up to what he said, it kind of gives him a slap in the face."

AFC Championship: Graham | Kuharsky » NFC Championship: Seifert | Yasinskas

Three nuggets of knowledge about Sunday's AFC Championship Game between the New York Jets (11-7) and Indianapolis Colts (15-2):

1. Rex Ryan doesn't have a favorable history against Peyton Manning. Ryan established his reputation as a defensive genius during his decade with the Baltimore Ravens, and despite overseeing some of the greatest units of this generation, he has been unsuccessful in trying to solve Manning. When the Jets beat the Colts in Week 16, Manning left the game with a 15-10 lead. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter should be charged with that loss, much like a reliever with a blown save. Eliminating that game, Manning has gone 6-1 against a Ryan-influenced defense. Manning has posted big points, too. Only once have the Colts been held to under 20 points, when they scored 15 to eliminate the Ravens from the 2006 playoffs.

2. Time of possession will be critical for the Jets. The Miami Dolphins established the offensive blueprint for defeating the Colts when they met on Monday night in Week 2. The Dolphins nearly knocked them off by dominating in time of possession, obnoxiously holding onto the ball for 45 minutes, 7 seconds. Problem is, the Dolphins' defense played like cardboard cutouts and surrendered 10.2 yards per play in a 27-23 loss. The Jets' defense can contain the Colts better than the Dolphins. If the Jets maintain no worse than a one-score deficit, then their offense will be able to keep handing off to Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones against the 24th-ranked run defense. The benefit would be twofold: It would prevent Mark Sanchez from being forced into a shootout and will keep Manning off the field.

3. The Jets can't expect to get multiple big breaks again. A lot of talk in the Jets' locker room this week justified the notion they can go toe-to-toe with the Colts because they played them so tightly a month ago in Indianapolis before Manning and other starters were removed from the game. But the Jets can't deny the repeated blessings they received before then. How often can they count on Brad Smith to return a kickoff 106 yards? What about blocking another extra point? Can the Jets count on another below-standard Manning performance and expect him to misfire with Reggie Wayne as often as he did the last time? No, no and no.

AFC Championship: Graham | Kuharsky » NFC Championship: Seifert | Yasinskas

Three nuggets of knowledge about Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the New York Jets (11-7) and Indianapolis Colts (15-2):

1. One big difference from the first game: Pierre Garcon did not play in the first matchup, and Rex Ryan said the Jets saw a lot of two tight-end sets from Indianapolis on Dec. 27 before the Colts shut it down. Ryan’s not expecting that this time. He knows the Colts will line up predominantly in three-wide receiver formations featuring Reggie Wayne, Garcon and Austin Collie. With Dallas Clark in the mix, the Colts hope to get the Jets in nickel and dime and test the depth of their secondary. Look for some short stuff to Collie over the middle as an alternative to runs if the Colts can’t move it much on the ground.

2. Keep manageable downs and distances on offense: The Colts know they probably aren’t going to do a lot of damage running the ball, but they will seek to maintain some sort of balance. Joseph Addai does pretty well on runs that appear to be shut down, wriggling for at least a couple yards. And Manning and the entire operation need second-and-eight, not second-and-12. Rushes for losses and sacks are the sort of setbacks that can get the Colts' precision offense off track and give the Jets' defense a spark.

3. Inexperience won’t kill these kickers: Kickers have made just 57.7 percent of their field goals in the playoffs. (Check out colleague Jeffri Chadiha's story on the topic.) That mark was 81.3 percent during the regular season. But the Jets have Jay Feely in his ninth season and the Colts have Matt Stover in his 20th. Feely is 9 for 12 in eight postseason games, including 2-for-2 this postseason. Stover, filling in for Adam Vinatieri, is 19 of 24 in the playoffs overall and is also 2-for-2 this postseason. Looking for a long one at the end? Peyton Manning will likely have to give Stover a few more yards than Mark Sanchez will have to give Feely, who’s younger and stronger.

INDIANAPOLIS -- The 2009 Indianapolis Colts needed to be stouter.

Item No. 1 on virtually every team's list of needs after the 2008 season was defensive tackle. A new head coach with a new defensive coordinator would still want quick interior linemen, but a little more beef would help the team better tamp down the run.

Thus, the Colts selected Fili Moala out of USC in the second round of the 2009 draft. They grabbed Terrance Taylor from Michigan in the fourth round. They recruited Adrian Grady from Louisville as an undrafted free agent. They ultimately brought back veteran Ed Johnson, who had been waived early in the 2008 season.

Things were going to appear a whole lot different between veteran defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Months later, here stand the Colts, a game away from their second Super Bowl in four seasons. The three defensive tackles who will key the run-stopping efforts Sunday against the New York Jets in the AFC Championship Game are... the same three guys they intended to replace with upgrades.

New York has a Pro Bowl center in Nick Mangold and a Pro Bowl left guard in Alan Faneca, two key pieces of an offensive line that blocks for the NFL’s top rushing team. The Colts will counter with starting defensive tackles Antonio Johnson, Daniel Muir and Eric Foster as the primary changeup.

Of all the "upgrades," only second-rounder Moala stuck -- and he's inactive when the guys ahead of him are healthy.

The three holdovers are used to beating long odds. Antonio Johnson was signed off the Tennessee Titans' practice squad in early November 2008 and played eight games with the Colts that season. Muir was a waiver claim from the Green Bay Packers in late August 2008. Foster was an undrafted free agent from Rutgers signed in 2008.

And so it’s no-names versus big-names in the trenches when the Jets have the ball at Lucas Oil Stadium, and it could be the matchup most telling in who wins the AFC title and advances to the Super Bowl.


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