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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Falcons in 2012.

Dream scenario (13-3): Let’s note right up front that that dream record would also include at least two postseason wins, which would be a first in the era of coach Mike Smith, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan. In their time, the Falcons have played the days after Christmas exactly like they’re the days after Christmas. There’s been a huge letdown when January has rolled around.

That’s putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Falcons. But that might be a good thing. Smith has said postseason failures have caused him to rethink how he does a lot of things. There’s little doubt those failures played a role in the hiring of new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, moves that might get the Falcons over the hump.

There are a lot of scouts and coaches around the league who believe Ryan was held back by former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey and the defense never established any sort of identity under Brian VanGorder. The Falcons can score with any team if Ryan is allowed (and has time) to throw the ball downfield to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Nolan is preaching about the need to be more aggressive on defense.

Nightmare scenario (8-8 or anything worse): Let’s face it, the only way the Falcons are a .500 (or worse) team is if they have several major injuries or a huge implosion. This is a team that is loaded with individual talent on both sides of the ball. Or so it seems.

When coordinators go, head coaches and key players tend to lose their insulation. If Koetter can’t get more out of Ryan than Mularkey did, the Falcons suddenly have a huge issue at quarterback. If Nolan can’t get guys such as Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson to do more than they did for VanGorder, then maybe it’s not all about the coordinators or offensive and defensive schemes.

Owner Arthur Blank has said Smith isn’t on the hot seat, no matter what happens this season. But I think Smith is at least entering the same territory Tony Dungy once did in Tampa Bay. Smith is getting labeled as a nice guy who can win a lot of games in the regular season but can’t win in January. If this team doesn’t win a playoff game, Smith officially is on the hot seat. If this team somehow fails to even make the playoffs, Blank might be forced to rethink his statement. This team is too talented not to win.

There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not posses the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.

Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

As it turns out, the Atlanta Falcons aren’t planning to jump over that playoff hurdle that’s been talked so much about.

They simply plan to plow right through it. The latest evidence came Friday night when the Falcons used their second-round draft pick (No. 55 overall) on Wisconsin center (more on that in a moment) Peter Konz.

It would have been very easy for the Falcons to overreact and do something crazy after an embarrassing January playoff loss to the New York Giants. Yeah, they could have made a leap in free agency for defensive end Mario Williams, which seemed to be the preferred rout by 99 of every 100 Falcons fans.

But the fact is, if the Falcons had landed Williams back in March, they wouldn’t be as good a team as they are today. Seriously.

Yeah, I know it sounds a little ridiculous to say the Falcons are better off without a guy who could have brought them double-digit sacks. But it’s the truth. Had the Falcons signed Williams, they would have had to gut their existing roster.

The salary-cap space Williams would have taken up would have prevented the Falcons from keeping guys like receiver Harry Douglas, safety Thomas DeCoud, defensive end John Abraham, center Todd McClure and running back Jason Snelling. They might not have been able to fit cornerback Brent Grimes under the salary cap with the franchise tag. Even if they did, they would have had to have made some dramatic moves -- like releasing receiver Roddy White, running back Michael Turner or fullback Ovie Mughelli.

Any or all of those moves seemed possible in the immediate aftermath of the loss in New York. But owner Arthur Blank, who earlier in his tenure may have been prone to overreacting, sat down with coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coolly came up with a plan on how the Falcons can take the next step.

Smith and Dimitroff have had four straight winning seasons, but have yet to win a playoff game. When you’ve had four straight winning seasons, you don’t blow a team up. You keep it together and fix the things that are wrong.

Without flash, that’s precisely what the Falcons have done and Friday night was just another step.

“We were really honed in on the offensive line as you can imagine,’’ Dimitroff said, moments after selecting Konz. “We need to get more stout on this offensive line.’’

There’s no doubt about that. Let’s consider this item from ESPN Stats & Information: The Falcons were one of 10 teams to average less than 4.0 yards per rush between the tackles last season. That came despite the fact they have a bruising runner in Turner.

The Falcons also didn’t do a great job of protecting quarterback Matt Ryan. That failure was the major reason why all the downfield passing we heard about after the Falcons traded up to draft Julio Jones didn’t fully materialize last year. The Falcons were soft up front and it cost offensive line coach Paul Boudreau his job.

Other than left tackle Sam Baker, a first-round pick in 2008, the Falcons really haven’t made huge investments in their offensive line. The arrival of Konz changes that.

Although he played center at Wisconsin, Dimitroff said “we’re listing him as a guard/center right now’’.

It’s no big secret McClure is at the end of his career. He’s 35 and it shows. The Falcons brought him back as insurance, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be their starting center on opening day. Guard Joe Hawley also can play center. Hawley also could factor into the situation at guard, where he played last season along with Justin Blalock and Garrett Reynolds. Add Konz to that mix and it’s pretty clear the Falcons are going to throw all their guards and centers onto the field in training camp and the preseason and see which of the three emerge as the best trio.

“Let’s come in here and have some great competition and see who can protect Matt Ryan the best,’’ Dimitroff said. “We want production and we want guys who can finish. In Peter, we have a guy who can do both of those.’’

Look, I’m not saying a guard/center from Wisconsin is going to come in the second round and push right through that hurdle all by himself. Konz is just a part of the puzzle and maybe fans can finally see that picture coming together now.

There’s a reason why Atlanta didn’t have a first-round pick this year. Jones was the first-round pick for last year and this year and he’s better than any receiver in this year’s draft. There was a reason why the Falcons didn’t make to splurge in free agency. They didn’t have the salary-cap room to do it without ripping a good team apart.

Little by little, they’ve made moves that have them gaining speed as they head for that hurdle. Just this week, they traded a late-round draft pick for four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel and quickly signed him to a cap-friendly deal.

In theory, Samuel should team with Grimes and Dunta Robinson to give the Falcons one of the league’s best cornerback tandems. In theory, Konz should team with all those other offensive linemen to make the Falcons tougher up front.

Yeah, there still are a few needs -- the pass rush, depth at tight end and maybe some more help on the outside of the offensive line. The Falcons are well aware of all that. They’ll address those needs in the rest of the draft and after it when the time and the price are right. But, now, you can see their offseason plan taking shape.

If the Falcons had gone out and paid a fortune for Williams, they wouldn’t be making solid, safe picks like Konz because they’d be desperately trying to repair all the other damage they did to their team.

The NFL draft is two days way. In Atlanta, that means people are talking about last year’s draft.

That’s mostly because the Falcons are without a first-round pick after using it as part of a package to move up 21 spots to get receiver Julio Jones in last year’s draft. Atlanta doesn’t pick until the second round (No. 55 overall).

Lots of folks are moaning about the Jones trade now and talking about how it left the Falcons without a chance to get a player who can make an instant impact at left tackle or defensive end. I get those points.

I’d like to see the Falcons upgrade on Sam Baker at left tackle and I’d like to see them get a pass-rusher to go with John Abraham in this draft. None of that’s going to come in the first round and, even if the Falcons get a left tackle and a defensive end later in the draft, they won’t make an instant impact. But I’m not looking back regretfully at last year’s trade to get Jones.

If the Falcons hadn’t made the trade, they’d be picking No. 22 in this year’s draft.

Take a look at this mock draft done by the ESPN.com Blog Network on Monday and see if there is anybody who really excites you available at No. 22. I just did and I’m not seeing much. Georgia tackle Cordy Glenn went at No. 21 and some are projecting him as a guard. I’m a strong believer that you don’t take a guard in the first round and I’m not seeing any tackle I’d take in this scenario. I’d stick with Baker and add a guy who might be able to compete with him later in the draft or in free agency.

It’s kind of the same story at defensive end. Chandler Jones and Courtney Upshaw were taken after No. 22 and neither of those are guys who likely will make a huge instant impact. You can find a defensive end with as much potential in the second round.

The Falcons already got their impact player in this draft. It was Jones. Yeah, his rookie numbers weren’t off the charts, but they were very solid. Jones came up just a bit short of 1,000 receiving yards even though he missed three games with injuries. There were moments last season when Jones looked spectacular at a position where many rookies take several years to make a true impact.

I think Jones will only get better this year and new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s scheme will find more ways to get him the ball. Jones and Roddy White are close to being on even ground right now. As White ages, it’s only a matter of time before Jones becomes the true No. 1 receiver.

The Falcons got their impact player from this draft in last year’s draft. I gladly will take Jones over anything they could get at No. 22 in this year’s draft.

As we told you a little bit ago, a league source said the Atlanta Falcons have declined an opportunity to be the featured team on HBO’s “Hard Knocks" this summer.

Now, let’s delve into this a little deeper so we can understand why the Falcons made this decision.

First off, the Falcons explored the possibility of being the featured team very thoroughly. There was intrigue throughout their building and the franchise fully realized that appearing on the show during training camp could help greatly in raising the national profile of a franchise that hasn’t been all that successful until recent years. Virtually every department in the building was involved in discussions about whether the Falcons should accept the invitation.

This wasn’t an easy decision, and the Falcons did have serious interest. In the end, though, they declined. The decision should not be viewed as a knock on the show, the source said. The Falcons saw plenty of positives, but they ultimately decided it was in their best interest – and in the best interest of their fans – to turn it down.

The Falcons want all their focus for the 2012 season to be solely on the field. This makes plenty of sense. The Falcons are facing a critical season. They’ve had four straight winning seasons, but haven’t won a playoff game in that span. After losing to the New York Giants in a January playoff game, owner Arthur Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith pledged to do everything in their power to get the team to the next level.

Instead of making a major splash in free agency, the Falcons chose mostly to retain their own players. There’s a strong belief in the building that new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will bring a change in schemes and attitude that could take the Falcons a step forward.

As intriguing as “Hard Knocks’’ was from a business and marketing standpoint, the decision ultimately came down to football. The Falcons didn’t want to put added pressure on Koetter and Nolan as they tried to install new schemes. Although the Falcons generally are a quiet team, they did recognize some potential dangers in opening all their doors to cameras for training camp. Receiver Roddy White can be outspoken and flamboyant at times and having cameras on him at all times could have presented the potential for controversy. There are a few other players on the roster that also could have brought some risk if the Falcons had decided to open things up.

In the end, the Falcons decided to go about their business quietly. I think that sends a pretty strong message. They’re focused totally on taking the next step and they want to do it by doing everything the right way on the football field. “Hard Knocks" might have brought them attention in the short term.

But the best and purest way the Falcons can enhance their national profile is going out and winning games, especially playoff games.

Given the way Atlanta Falcons fans have reacted to what the team has done (or, more accurately, not done) this offseason, I was expecting Arthur Blank to pull out earmuffs as he reached into his pocket just before the start of an interview last week.

It didn’t happen. Instead, the owner of the Falcons pulled out a pair of sunglasses. This was a rare step outside during the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Fla. He slipped on the shades, surveyed the Atlantic Ocean, sat down on a bench and started explaining, in great detail, the course his team has chosen.

Maybe this will, once and for all, stop all the screaming in Atlanta about how the Falcons didn’t pursue Mario Williams and didn’t really do much of anything in free agency. Blank’s got a detailed answer for that and, when you listen, it should all start to make sense.

There was a moment when I looked directly at Blank, but could have sworn I was seeing and hearing Gene Hackman. It was almost exactly like the scene in “Hoosiers," where the basketball coach played by Hackman firmly tells a referee “my team is on the court," after a player fouls out and the coach elects to go with four players instead of turning back to a player who had defied orders.

Blank has said “My team is on the field."

Yeah, the marquee free-agent signings have been linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai. And Atlanta fans aren’t exactly jumping up and down about the fact that the Falcons re-signed defensive end John Abraham and center Todd McClure, who wouldn’t have surprised anyone if they decided to retire. Throw in the re-signing of role players Thomas DeCoud, Jason Snelling and Harry Douglas and it’s easy to see why a lot of Atlanta fans believe the Falcons haven’t done a single thing to get better after ending last season with an embarrassing playoff loss to the New York Giants.

But Blank has an explanation, so let’s hear it.

“I feel good about where we are,’’ Blank said. “I know we didn’t make a big splash going into free agency. But that really wasn’t our intention going into this year. We really felt we had a lot of talent. We were fortunate that we had the opportunity to bring in the two new coordinators and a few other coaches. At some points, it’s not even a matter of if the contents are correct. Sometimes, it’s a matter of who is delivering the message and whether the players are hearing it or not.’’

The man makes a good point. The 2011 Falcons that went 10-6 and never really played with a lot of consistency were essentially the same team that went 13-3 and played with a great deal of consistency in 2010. The 2012 Falcons have largely the same roster as the previous two teams. In the eyes of Blank, general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith, the problem last season and the reason this team hasn’t won a playoff game under the current administration isn’t about the roster.

Maybe the roster was just fine, but the coaching staff and the schemes were holding back the Falcons. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left after the season to become head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left after the season to become the defensive coordinator at Auburn. Both men left on their own, but I get the impression that if they hadn’t, they might have been shown the door.

Let’s be honest here. Mularkey’s offensive system reached its peak in 2010 and didn’t get any better even with the addition of talented rookie receiver Julio Jones last season. VanGorder’s defense was solid, but never dominant, which was a disappointment because the Falcons have some individual talent on defense. Mularkey’s been replaced by Dirk Koetter, and VanGorder’s been replaced by Mike Nolan.

“I love the selections that Smitty and Thomas made,’’ Blank said.

I get the sense that the days of Matt Ryan rolling out and almost always checking down are over. I get the sense that the days of sitting back in the Cover 2 are long gone.

“Dirk and I have had numerous discussions in terms of what our players are capable of doing,’’ Smith said during the meetings. “I think, first and foremost, you have to design your schemes toward what the players are capable of doing. We’ve spent a lot of time identifying the strengths and weakness of all our guys and what they do well and what they don’t do well, and we want to put together an offense that accentuates their strengths.’’

In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to be handing the ball to Michael Turner 300-plus times a season. They’re going to try to take some shots downfield with Jones and Roddy White and they’re going to get versatile second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers more involved in the offense. They also will try to put Ryan in a position where he can go from being a good quarterback to an elite one.

Smith said he’s had similar discussions with Nolan, the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, who also has had success as a defensive coordinator elsewhere. Nolan is noted for producing aggressive defenses. Some minor tweaks to attitude and scheme could provide an upgrade over the VanGorder units that never were able to establish any sort of identity.

Blank made quite a bit of noise after the loss to the Giants about how simply getting to the playoffs wasn’t good enough. He wants his team to win playoff games and contend for the Super Bowl.

That really hasn’t changed. But, after the heat of the moment cooled a bit, Blank, Smith and Dimitroff sat back and realized they weren’t all that far from where they wanted to be. Early in his days as an owner, Blank was portrayed as hands-on and reactionary. I don’t think those descriptions really fit him anymore and I think he’s learned from his past. I think Blank is at a stage where he remains plugged in but trusts Smith and Dimitroff to make the football decisions.

“I went back and studied this over a long period of time in the NFL and studied the great teams,’’ Blank said. “Consistency is very important in terms of leadership with coaches and players. The great teams, what they have done is they’ve kept their head coaches for a longer period of time, kept their general managers for a longer period of time and they identified early enough their core players and they extended them. The football staff has done a great job of identifying the players that can help us and keep them.’’

The salary cap also was a factor in the Falcons’ approach to the offseason. Pursuing Williams or some other big names in free agency would have meant sacrificing continuity. The only key player the Falcons lost was middle linebacker Curtis Lofton -- and that was a calculated loss. Lofton wanted a lot of money and Atlanta placed a limit on his value. If they’d made just one or two big moves in free agency and kept Lofton, guys like Abraham, McClure, DeCoud, Douglas and Snelling wouldn’t be on the roster. Other players would have had to have been cut to free up cap room. The Falcons could have made a splash, but it would have left them with all sorts of holes.

“What you have to look at is, this is not like baseball,’’ Blank said. “There are limits. This is real money and not monopoly money. That’s one of the beauties in the NFL is that in July and August fans of every team think their team has a chance to go to the playoffs or to go to the Super Bowl and win it. The salary-cap system forces you to make some tough choices. Thomas and Smitty and their staffs made these choices because they believe they were the ones that will give us the biggest bang for the buck going forward. I certainly tested their logic and asked questions, but I think their plan was all very sound and well formulated.’’

Like it or not, Blank is putting his team (the one chosen by Smith and Dimitroff) on the field this fall. You might not like it now and that’s fine with Blank. He thinks you’ll like it a lot more as the season goes along.

Brandon Lloyd's trajectory has changed dramatically and so has that of his original team, the San Francisco 49ers. The parties will scarcely recognize one another when Lloyd pays a free-agent visit to the team Wednesday.

The 49ers won as many regular-season games last season, 13, as they did during the three seasons Lloyd spent on the roster beginning in 2003.

Lloyd, despite enjoying a bright moment or two, ranked only 93rd among NFL players with 2,370 yards receiving from 2003 through 2009, bouncing from San Francisco to Washington to Denver along the way. He improbably has 2,414 yards over the past two seasons, sixth-most in the NFL behind Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace and Wes Welker.

Playing with a long list of sub-mediocre quarterbacks surely contributed to Lloyd's disappointing first seven seasons. Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, J.T. O'Sullivan, Cody Pickett and Chris Weinke were among the starters while Lloyd was with San Francisco through 2005. Jason Campbell, Mark Brunell and Todd Collins were the starters when Lloyd was with Washington.

Lloyd's two-year run of production has come with Josh McDaniels as head coach (in Denver) or offensive coordinator (in St. Louis). McDaniels is now in New England, but if Lloyd is going to follow him there, it will be after first giving the 49ers a look.

Michael Crabtree and the newly signed Randy Moss are the top two receivers on the 49ers' roster. Josh Morgan agreed to terms with Washington. Ted Ginn Jr. is testing the market and reportedly plans to visit the Detroit Lions.

Lloyd's reputation in San Francisco as an immature player unconcerned with winning appears outdated. He is now 30 years old and meeting expectations. The 49ers have largely new leadership, creating the opportunity for a fresh start.

.

Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff drew some criticism from fans and media when he traded up 21 spots to get receiver Julio Jones in last year’s draft. That might continue as we get closer to this year’s draft because the Falcons are left without a first-round pick and they have several areas of need.

But Dimitroff said Friday at the scouting combine that he has no regrets about trading up for Jones.

"He missed three games with an injury," Dimitroff noted. "He made an impact on our football team that we enjoyed at so many levels. The fan base obviously enjoyed watching him. He's a guy that you're always on the edge of your seat waiting to watch.’’

Jones had a good rookie year and he almost certainly would have been over 1,000 receiving yards if he wasn’t injured. But Dimitroff implied that even bigger things are expected from Jones in the future.

"He works very hard athletically," Dimitroff said. "To me, he's right up there with the top ones in the league, and now going into the offseason and having the ability to work with Matt Ryan and work on the timing in the game, which is very, very important in this game, it will help him significantly."

I really have no major issues with the trade. Yes, the price was steep (the Falcons also will be without a fourth-round pick this year), but Jones showed signs he can become a special player. No. 1 receiver Roddy White isn’t getting any younger and the presence of Jones means Ryan should have a top-notch receiver for the rest of his career.

The Falcons should have some cap room to work with. That should allow them to use free agency to get what they can’t in the draft.

Mel Kiper Jr. is back with his second 2012 NFL mock draft for the first round.

We discussed the first one about a month ago, summarizing Kiper's thoughts and supplementing them with my own.

This updated look works from Kiper's updated mock, concluding with the St. Louis Rams, who hold the second overall choice.

2. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.

Kiper's give: Cleveland, Washington or maybe even Miami could slide into this spot if they want to make a move at quarterback, but Blackmon goes here in this mock because I'm not able to reflect trades. St. Louis is in desperate need of a weapon in the passing game, and will get one with one of its first two picks. Remember, it could also lose Brandon Lloyd in free agency.

Sando's take: Lloyd returning seems like a long shot with his preferred coordinator, Josh McDaniels, now in New England. The team's new general manager, Les Snead, was with Atlanta when the Falcons selected wide receivers 29th (Michael Jenkins, 2004), 27th (Roddy White, 2005) and sixth (Julio Jones, 2011). His teams never drafted a wide receiver in the second round. One way or another, the Rams need playmakers. Their needs extend far beyond receiver, however. Perhaps the combine will help better define the Rams' choices. Trading down for additional picks carries appeal in the absence of an obvious non-quarterback option for St. Louis at No. 2. Sending the second pick to the teams Kiper mentioned would be feasible given that all three -- the Browns, Redskins and Dolphins -- play outside the NFC West.

Wide receiver Randy Moss, who sat out last season, celebrated his 35th birthday Monday by saying he wants to play in the NFL in 2012.

Could he land in the NFC South?

It’s probably a long shot, but I wouldn’t say it’s completely out of the question. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.

Saints. It is possible the Saints could lose top receiver Marques Colston in free agency. If that happens, Moss could be a consideration. Of all the teams in the division, the Saints have shown a willingness to bring in veteran guys. At various times in his career, Moss has been viewed as a locker-room distraction. But that wouldn’t be a huge concern in New Orleans because quarterback Drew Brees runs that locker room with a firm hand and no one challenges him.

Falcons. Atlanta could lose third receiver Harry Douglas in free agency. That would leave the Falcons with a need to get someone to complement Roddy White and Julio Jones. The Falcons clearly are in a win-now mode. This is the kind of move I could not have seen them considering a couple of years ago, but it’s a different time for the Falcons.

Panthers. General manager Marty Hurney generally isn’t the type of guy who goes out and signs 35-year-old receivers with some baggage. But the Panthers are clearly trying to give franchise quarterback Cam Newton as many weapons as possible. I doubt Moss is the top priority and the Panthers do have some hope that Brandon LaFell will blossom in his third season and David Gettis will come back strong from an injury. Look for the Panthers to add a receiver in the draft or free agency. But, if they can’t find what they want and Moss remains available in the late spring or summer, he could become a possibility to complement Steve Smith.

Buccaneers. A 35-year-old receiver doesn’t fit Tampa Bay’s youth movement. Moss also doesn’t seem like the kind of guy new coach Greg Schiano would want as he tries to clean up a locker room that has had some issues and needs stronger leadership. But the Tampa Bay receivers struggled to get separation last season. Stretching the field is one thing Moss always has been able to do.

In retrospect, the Chicago Bears' 25-day search for a general manager played out exactly as they said it would. Team president Ted Phillips made clear he wasn't looking to turn the organization upside down after firing Jerry Angelo on Jan. 3. No, as we discussed at the time, the Bears wanted someone who could bring a better hit rate as a talent evaluator.

Kansas City Chiefs executive Phil Emery emerged as a favorite early in the process because of his unique qualifications under those criteria, and for that reason, it was far from surprising to hear that the Bears hired him Saturday.

Emery spent seven years as a Bears scout from 1998-2004, making him relatively familiar with the inner workings of Halas Hall and unlikely to pursue a massive overhaul. He was part of a Bears scouting department that drafted eight future Pro Bowlers, from receiver Marty Booker to linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs to safety Mike Brown and cornerback Charles Tillman. Later, he drafted receiver Roddy White and quarterback Matt Ryan, among others, as the Atlanta Falcons' director of college scouting.

Emery surely will bring his own tone and vision to the Bears' front office. But initially, at least, he'll do so by assimilating the existing infrastructure and minimizing the side affects of transition.

The Bears have missed the playoffs in four of the five seasons since their appearance in Super Bowl XLI. But whether you agree or not, Phillips believed the team has suffered from inconsistent talent evaluation rather than larger-scale issues. So in essence, he has swapped one longtime scout-turned-general manager for another in hopes of getting better results.

Phillips said Jan. 3 that the Bears needed to close the "talent gap" that exists between the Bears and their two most competitive NFC North rivals, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. In many ways, the decision to bring back Emery reflects the Packers' hiring of general manager Ted Thompson in 2005.

Thompson spent eight years with the Packers in various personnel roles between 1992-99 before returning as general manager in 2005. Emery brings a similar reputation as a blue-collar scout and workaholic who figures to spend a good portion of the years on the road personally scouting college players.

Thompson, of course, had the authority to remake the Packers franchise as he saw fit. Much of the front office remained intact, but he fired coach Mike Sherman after one season and hired Mike McCarthy in 2006. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV with a 53-man roster that included 49 players acquired after Thompson's arrival.

That's a tough ideal for Emery and the Bears to pursue, but I wouldn't be surprised if it comes up at some point during Monday's news conference to introduce him formally. The Bears wanted a low-key leader who would focus on talent evaluation and, like Thompson, stay below the radar. By all accounts, Emery fits that bill.

It was a big year for offense in the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints set all sorts of records. The Carolina Panthers lit up scoreboards and, when the Atlanta Falcons were on, they sometimes were spectacular.

That made for some difficult choices, but here’s my All-NFC South offense.

Tackle: Jordan Gross, Panthers. He’s getting along in years, but Gross is still the best tackle in the division.

Tackle: Jermon Bushrod, Saints. This was a really tough call because Tampa Bay’s Donald Penn seemed destined for this spot, but his play slipped as the Bucs collapsed and lost their last 10 games. I refuse to put any offensive lineman from Atlanta on this team, so I’m going with Bushrod almost by default. I know he made the Pro Bowl, but I’m not convinced Bushrod is anything more than an ordinary left tackle. But he’s better than any other tackle the NFC South had to offer.

Guard: Carl Nicks, Saints. He might be the best guard in the NFL.

Guard: Jahri Evans, Saints. If Nicks isn’t the best guard in the NFL, then Evans is.

Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers. He’s becoming a Pro Bowl regular and might be the best center in the league.

Wide receiver: Steve Smith, Panthers. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton came along and revitalized Smith’s career. But I also think Smith deserves a lot of the credit for Newton’s success.

Wide receiver: Marques Colston, Saints. I went back and forth on this one between Colston and Atlanta’s Roddy White and Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams also got some consideration. I’m joking. Williams didn’t get one bit of consideration. White’s numbers were slightly better than Colston’s in terms of catches and receiving yards. But Colston missed a couple games with a broken collarbone and still had very nice numbers in an offense where there are a ton of other options. White had nice numbers, but he didn’t look like the dominant receiver he was a year ago. White led the league in drops.

Tight end: Jimmy Graham, Saints. This one was easy. Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez had a very nice season and is the best tight end in history. But Graham had one of the most prolific seasons ever by a tight end in only his second season. Graham should only continue to get better and, if he stays healthy, he could eventually pass Gonzalez as the best tight end ever.

Fullback: Jed Collins, Saints. In his first real NFL season (Collins was with Cleveland in 2008), he emerged as a steady role player in the league’s best offense. Collins didn’t have much in the way of numbers, but his blocking was a key factor in the offenses’ success. If Atlanta’s Ovie Mughelli hadn’t gotten injured, he’d be in this spot. But Collins is a worthy replacement.

Running back: Darren Sproles, Saints. Sproles ended up with an NFL record for all-purpose yards. Out of the backfield, he contributed as a runner and receiver and created enormous matchup problems for opposing defenses.

Running back: Michael Turner. Yeah, I'm going with two running backs because it's my team, I can want and there are two guys that deserve to be on here. Turner looked slow for most of the second half of the season. But he still rushed for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's not a bad season by any measure.

Quarterback: Drew Brees, Saints. He threw for a league-record 5,476 yards and also passed for 46 touchdowns. Brees has been great for a long time, but he took his game to another level. He’s the reason the Saints won 13 games without a defense.

New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter hasn’t started the job just yet, but he’s pledging to put a balance offense on the field next season.

“Balance is difficult to defend,’’ Koetter said in a conference call with the Atlanta media Wednesday morning. “When you have the weapons that Atlanta has in the run game and the pass game, you’d be foolish not to take advantage of everything that has to offer. There are various ways to get guys the ball. You have to get your play makers the ball in a place to make plays.’’

Getting big plays was an issue for the Falcons in a 2011 season that was marked by inconsistency on offense and a playoff loss to the New York Giants in a game in which the Atlanta offense did not score a point.

Koetter, who spent the last five years as offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, replaces Mike Mularkey, who became the head coach of the Jaguars. Owner Arthur Blank, coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff each have said simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough. The Falcons have made the playoffs in three of Smith’s four seasons, but have yet to win a postseason game. Clearly, part of Koetter’s job will be to help the Falcons take the next step.

“There’s pressure everywhere and nobody puts more pressure on me than I put on myself,’’ Koetter said. “All I can say is I’ll be extremely dedicated to the task at hand and I understand the task at hand.’’

After a 2011 season in which Jacksonville wound up playing rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and a very ordinary group of wide receivers, Koetter is stepping into a situation in which he inherits quarterback Matt Ryan, receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, tight end Tony Gonzalez and running back Michael Turner.

“Everybody can read the stats and know they have excellent skill players,’’ Koetter said. “How everything fits together, that will be stuff that we’ll be working on once we get up there.’’

Koetter said he expects to arrive in Atlanta and begin working later this week. He already met with Ryan while he was interviewing for the position.

“You can tell Matt’s a guy that really understands offensive football and that he’s got a great passion for not only playing, but for winning,’’ Koetter said. “I couldn’t be more excited to work with Matt as well as some of the other players they have in that offensive group.’’

Koetter said his offense in Atlanta will be a combination of the existing offense and some things he’s done in the past.

“I don’t know if anybody owns any offense out there,’’ Koetter said. “There’s a lot of good offense out there. I think it will be a combination of some of the things that I’ve done in the past and things that Atlanta has done well in the past. I think we’d be foolish to not build on some of the things Atlanta is already doing very well.’’

Koetter said he and Ryan discussed the no-huddle offense, something the Falcons have had success with in recent years. Koetter said Ryan made it clear he likes the no-huddle system and that’s something the Falcons will continue to use at times. But Koetter said he’s not ready to declare a percentage on how often the Falcons will go without a huddle.

Koetter said both the running game and vertical passing will be big parts of his offense. But he also said something that should come as welcome news to Atlanta fans, who often griped that Mularkey almost never used screen passes.

“I’m a big believer in the screen game,’’ Koetter said. “Coach Smith has mentioned to me that he would like us to be a better screen team and that’s definitely a part of what we’ll try to do there.’’

The Jacksonville Jaguars have Atlanta’s old offensive coordinator as their head coach. Now, the Falcons have Jacksonville’s former offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, as their play caller.

ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported Koetter has been hired as Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator and the team just confirmed the move.

Koetter also had interviewed for the coordinator’s job with the University of Alabama, but the Falcons won out.

Koetter has history with Atlanta coach Mike Smith. Koetter joined the Jacksonville staff in 2007, Smith’s last season as the Jaguars’ defensive coordinator. Prior to joining Jacksonville, Koetter had a long history as a college offensive coordinator.

In Atlanta, Koetter’s main job will be to get more out of a talented offense than Mularkey did. Despite having a passing game that featured Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez and a running game that featured Michael Turner, the Falcons were inconsistent on offense during the 2011 regular season. In their playoff loss to the New York Giants, they did not score any offensive points.