NFL Nation: Ryan Grigson
Telesco steering Chargers in right direction
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports"Its my job to know the league," said GM Tom Telesco. "... It's my job to study rosters every day."When Tom Telesco received an interview for the San Diego Chargers’ vacant general manager post in January, it was considered a terrific opportunity in the career of promising young front-office man.
Telesco wasn’t considered a sure bet to be hired to pump life into a stale franchise after the 10-year A.J. Smith era. But Telesco took control of his future and essentially stole the job.
It was well known that the Chargers were focused on removing Smith and head coach Norv Turner. Longtime personnel man Jimmy Raye was widely considered as a slam-dunk to be promoted. The Chargers were fine with the front office as a whole. They figured Smith’s time with the team had run its course and that the bigger issue was finding a replacement for Turner.
Then, Telesco interviewed. Everything changed. Telesco opened the Chargers’ minds. Perhaps an outside voice to lead the front voice was exactly what the team needed. And in a big upset, the Chargers named the 40-year-old Indianapolis front-office man to replace Smith.
The surprise hiring was met with applause from around the league. Telesco was a career front-office man and a protégée of former Colts’ general manager Bill Polian. Telesco was known for a keen scouting eye and was credited with helping turn the Colts back into a playoff team by restocking the roster.
“Tom has that no-stone-unturned mindset,” said Ryan Grigson, his boss in Indianapolis last year. “Tom never stops working. That's what the Chargers are going to appreciate. If I asked Tom if this guy could play or not, an hour later I was getting a text from him or he was knocking on my door, giving me a thumbs-up or a thumbs-down. Tom is a bright, bright, bright guy with a great work ethic.”
AP Photo/Denis PoroyESPN analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay praised Tom Telesco's first draft with the Chargers.I asked Telesco about that, and he brushed it off.
“It’s my job to know the league,” said Telesco, polite as always. “I have to know that stuff. It’s my job to study rosters every day.”
Polian, now an ESPN analyst, wasn’t surprised that Telesco impressed the Chargers. Telesco first joined the NFL with Carolina in 1995 when Polian ran the Panthers. He followed Polian to Indianapolis in 1998.
“Tom knows the league, he does what it takes to be good at his job,” Polian said. “He’s a hard worker. He’s level-headed. He’s a great judge of talent … He will be great in San Diego.”
His first offseason in San Diego has been positive. He received kudos for tabbing heavily sought-after Denver offensive coordinator Mike McCoy to coach the team. Chargers employees tout Telesco, who played receiver at noted NFL coaching and front-office factory John Carroll University in Ohio, as friendly. They say he has re-energized a building that lacked excitement at the end of the Smith era.
Most league observers believe the Chargers, who have gone three seasons without making the playoffs, had one of the best drafts in the NFL. The Chargers scored big in the first three rounds with the selections of Alabama right tackle D.J. Fluker (first round), Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o (second) and California receiver Keenan Allen (third). ESPN analysts Todd McShay and Mel Kiper both said during the draft that Telesco got three first-round picks with his first three choices. Telesco aggressively went after Te’o, who was falling, and traded up on the clock to take him.
Telesco was less aggressive in free agency. The cap-strapped Chargers were active, but they didn’t make many splashes. They did get several players who should help right away, starting with cornerback Derek Cox, guard Chad Rinehart and running back Danny Woodhead.
San Diego has not sufficiently addressed its biggest need yet: left tackle. Free-agent signing King Dunlap is currently expected to start there even though he is not considered a solid option. In Telesco’s defense, the Chargers never really had a great chance of adding a top option at the position because of cap issues and because the top three draft options were gone after the first four picks of the draft.
Regardless of whether the Chargers enter Telesco’s first season a finished project, he promises to continue to approach the job his way.
“(I) come into work every day trying to find the best players we can,” Telesco said. “Part of building chemistry with the team and the team process is getting to know the coaches well, getting to know the scouts, the front office. That's all part of team building for me. It's just trying to get to know everybody really well.”
Colts' trade of A.Q. Shipley is fine by me
Yes, Shipley was better in his five starts last season than Samson Satele was.
Satele got a three-year, $10.8 million deal from the Colts last year with $4 million guaranteed and a $3.2 million signing bonus. He’s due a $2.7 million base salary this year.
Ryan Grigson won NFL executive of the year for his rookie season as Colts GM. The Satele move was one that didn’t pan out.
Perhaps he’ll be far better in his second season. But Grigson used a fourth-round draft pick on USC’s Khaled Holmes, a center. If the Colts don’t look for Holmes to start right away, they surely expect him to start by 2014.
The Colts don’t need three centers, so dealing Shipley for a conditional pick -- we don’t know what it can be -- is completely reasonable. Being better than Satele last year wasn’t some giant achievement. I don’t mean that to demean Shipley -- I respect the work he did.
But if the Colts don’t view him as a long-term piece of the franchise, it’s smart to get something for a guy who may not have made it out of training camp.
Shipley was a seventh-round pick by the Steelers in 2009 and spent time on their practice squad before he moved to the Eagles in 2010 when he was also a practice squader.
He was out of the league in 2011 before the Colts picked him up in late January 2012.
Now he may factor in the Ravens' plans while Indianapolis looks to pave a path for Holmes.
Is Thornton another OL starter for Colts?
Right tackle Gosder Cherilus is a certainly as a new starter, and Donald Thomas should win a starting guard slot.
Now Hugh Thornton, a guard from Illinois, is the Colts third-round pick, 86th overall.
Mike McGlynn was the starter at right guard in 2012 while Joe Reitz started eight games at left guard and Jeff Linkenbach started four there last year. Seth Olsen, who was also in the mix, is gone.
Those three holdovers will likely be in a battle with Thomas and Thornton and the newcomers should rank as favorites given their pedigrees.
The Colts line had no answers for J.J. Watt last year. In a December Texans' win in Houston, the defensive player of the year had six tackles for a loss including three sacks and a forced fumble.
That effort prompted this from GM Ryan Grigson:
"You need elite offensive line play to block elite defensive linemen like Watt with any consistency. If you don't play near-perfect from a technique standpoint, he will eat you alive. Six-foot-six, 290 with motor and instincts. A true game wrecker."
Who knows if Thornton will be part of a solution? When he gets a chance, he may not show elite technique but he could show elite toughness. According to Scouts Inc., Thornton rates as exceptional in that category.
Aggressive mauler that blocks to the whistle and can get under defender's skin but doesn't appear to be a hothead prone to personal foul calls. Always looking for someone to hit and uncoils on linebackers at the second level. Looks to deliver kill shot whenever gets a chance to blind side defender in space or help guard out when no one comes to him in pass protection.
Erik Walden may be the Colts' starting strongside linebacker.

Bjoern Werner, who was selected 24th overall in the NFL draft out of Florida State, shouldn’t be a surprise.
He’s a high-motor player with great size at 6-foot-3, 266 pounds. I’ve seen comparisons to Washington’s Ryan Kerrigan and St. Louis’ Chris Long. Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano said the college end will be a 3-4 outside linebacker.
He brings a quick first step, strong hands and a very good football IQ considering he’s only player for five years.
Ideally, he’ll be a passing down presence right from the start, basically inheriting the role Dwight Freeney held, but didn’t excel at, last season.
At the combine, general manager Ryan Grigson told us he sometimes roots for a player he likes to have a poor combine performance, because it will scare others away. It worked that way with fifth-round running back Vick Ballard last year.
It may have helped with Werner, too. He ran a 4.81 at the combine.
Via Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianapolis Star, Grigson said of Werner: "You put on the film, he's the first guy off the ball every down. He's got great get-off. His closing speed is excellent on film. He plays the game at a higher rate of speed."
They chose Werner over cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who many of us thought looked the part for a Chuck Pagano corner. They could have had the draft’s second wide receiver too.
Ryan Grigson avoids misinformation game
It’s lying season in the NFL. It’s easy to be put off by it -- I am. But I try to remind myself it’s a game within a game, which makes it more OK.
“I feel like that’s wasted energy,” Grigson said at his predraft news conference Thursday. “I’m just not big on smokescreens. I feel it takes your eye off the ball. Since I’ve started this process, I just don’t feel the need for cloak and dagger because I need to focus on my job and doing my job 100 percent of the time. To start doing all that, sometimes by not doing anything you trip people up.”
Grigson is a personable guy, but he’s not chit chatting with other GMs right now. It’s got nothing to do with friendliness.
He said you have to be away of smokescreens from other teams at this point.
“That’s why I’m not a big phone guy,” he said. “The people in the league know that. I’m not going to show my hand in this process by having conversations with people, trying to pull information from them because obviously they are going to try and pull information from us, and the minute that happens then they know you are full of baloney. There’s no productivity to it. The whole thing is a big charade so why even waste my time?
“Anybody that has half a brain isn’t going to give me information that’s going to hurt their organization and I’m not going to be able to pull out anything from them if they have a brain that’s going to help us. At the end of the day, it still might be B.S. It’s wasted time. I’d rather focus on watching film and getting players ready.”
Indianapolis placed him on the team’s reserve/military list.
Currently commissioned in the United States Army, McNary will finish his active duty service prior to joining the team. The team doesn’t know when McNary will become available. It will be determined by the Army, of course.
McNary was a defensive end at Army, but the Colts will use him as a linebacker.
“Josh had an outstanding career at West Point,” general manager Ryan Grigson said in a statement. “His production speaks for itself, but his intangibles rival any stats. He is still fulfilling the commitment he made to serving our country, but we look forward to him wearing the horseshoe here in the near future.”
McNary is 6-foot and 251 pounds. He finished his collegiate career in 2010 as Army’s all-time leader in sacks (28.0) and tackles for loss (49). He also had 195 tackles (117 solo), nine passes defensed, five forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries.
This is Grigson once again looking everywhere possible for a player. Any GM in the league could have had signed McNary and put him on the reserve list.
Grigson is the one who did, and if the Colts get something out of him it will qualify as a smart move.
Some are sure to be upgrades, like right tackle Gosder Cherilus and safety LaRon Landry. Others require a wait-and-see approach as we find out how strongside linebacker Erik Walden and defensive lineman Ricky Jean Francois fare with expanded roles.
Despite an 11-win season, Indianapolis headed toward the second season of Ryan Grigson as the general manager, Chuck Pagano as the head coach and Andrew Luck as the quarterback with some significant holes.
With all the additions, the pressure to find answers at certain spots in the draft is significantly lightened. That makes for a far better atmosphere in which to draft.
Here’s my assessment of what they’ve done to fill roster gaps and what now rank as the team’s primary needs with the draft drawing near.
Tim Fuller/USA TODAY SportsGosder Cherilus, left, provides an infusion of talent to a Colts O-line that was lacking it last season.Cornerback -- Greg Toler could be a fine second starter, but they qualify as three deep at best with Vontae Davis, Toler and Darius Butler. They have to have another solid guy in the mix, and the draft should provide someone who will automatically qualify as better than Cassius Vaughn.
Wide receiver -- Can they get more out of Darrius Heyward-Bey than they got out of Donnie Avery? I would think so. Is DHB going to be the ultimate successor to Reggie Wayne? I highly doubt it. They need to be looking for that guy to go with T.Y. Hilton, their lone long-term sure thing at the position.
Safety -- LaRon Landry is a significant upgrade over Tom Zbikowski. He and Antoine Bethea should be a nice tandem. Joe Lefeged is fine as depth. But in a good safety year and with Bethea heading into his eighth season, I think it would be a good move to add a young player at the spot.
Outside linebacker -- Walden was a controversial addition, but they’ve emphasized his ability to set the edge. That does not make for much of a pass rush opposite Robert Mathis. I hope they aren’t counting on big production from Jerry Hughes or Lawrence Sidbury. They still need a pass-rushing outside 'backer.
Defensive end -- They resigned Fili Moala and hope Cory Redding will be more durable. Newcomer Ricky Jean Francois could start outside and move inside in nickel. Another guy in that mix wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Running back -- Vick Ballard, Donald Brown and Delone Carter are the three-pack that will return. Ballard showed a lot of promise, but the other two are not sure things. Bruce Arians’ offense didn’t throw to backs much. Pep Hamilton’s offense will do so more. If Grigson sees a versatile back as a value, I expect he’ll add one.
Defensive tackle -- Went from being a need to not being a need. Jean Francois will play some tackle and some end. Aubrayo Franklin can be an early-down run-stopper. And they expect Brandon McKinney and Josh Chapman to be healthy and equipped to contribute. They could have a lot of options at this spot who fit the 3-4 front.
Quarterback -- They did well replacing Drew Stanton with Matt Hasselbeck as Luck’s backup. The No. 2 was never going to come from the draft.
Irsay stirs up speculation on WR for Colts
With a couple of tweets on Saturday night, he’s set off a frenzy.
ColtFans,we already past the cap cash wise/ we're workin on a deal,1 we've been workin on for 5 days/ we're very,very close 2 making it work
— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) March 17, 2013
Colt Fans,hint------ it's a Wide Receiver!!
— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) March 17, 2013
Some observers were quick to point out he’s got a propensity for overstatement. The last time he really hyped up a pending move, the Colts traded for cornerback Vontae Davis. He’s a good player, but based on Irsay’s Twitter feed, it sounded more like the Colts would be getting Deion Sanders in his prime. When the team recently signed 49ers backup defensive lineman Ricky Jean Francois, Irsay's tweet about it included more than 20 exclamation marks.
The Colts need a third wide receiver to go with Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, and their hope is that they find a player who ultimately can take the aging Wayne’s place as Andrew Luck’s No. 1 target.
The first name that jumps out is Victor Cruz, the New York Giants' restricted free-agent receiver and salsa dancer. Cruz had 86 catches for 1,092 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. Pittsburgh’s Emmanuel Sanders, who reportedly had a visit scheduled with New England, is also a restricted free agent.
Teams can sign restricted free agents to an offer sheet and have to give up draft-pick compensation if the original team doesn’t match it. Cruz is tendered at a first-round level and Sanders at a third-round level.
If the player is willing, his original team can work out a trade instead of seeing the offer sheet procedure play out.
But "workin on a deal" doesn't mean a trade for certain. General manager Ryan Grigson could be negotiating with a free agent. None of the unsigned receivers, however, appear deserving of the excitement level Irsay's suggesting.
The Colts already are without a second-round pick from the Davis trade. If they made a blockbuster trade, a team that's pledged to build through the draft could be left with little to work with early in the draft.
Since then, they’ve re-signed defensive lineman Fili Moala and cornerback Darius Butler, and brought in seven free agents: Right tackle Gosder Cherilus, safety LaRon Landry, defensive lineman Ricky Jean Francois, cornerback Greg Toler, outside linebacker Erik Walden, guard Donald Thomas and outside linebacker Lawrence Sidbury. The Colts also put a franchise tender on punter Pat McAfee at $2.977 million.
Collectively, they will count $34,330,333 against the cap.
The team cut safety Tom Zbikowski today, gaining $1.158 million against the cap. So the Colts have roughly $10.181 million in salary-cap room remaining.
Still enough to make some acquisitions if they want to.
General manager Ryan Grigson, who was named NFL Executive of the Year in his first season, said in a news conference this morning that he feels great about the roster work the Colts have been able to do.
"I really feel like you need to strike a balance [with free agency and the draft] and if there’s players that you can get and help create more competition and raise the bar and you know is going to make your team better as a whole, you have to at least explore those options. Even from the beginning, just seeing guys that we played against, the scout in me, you see guys and I say, ‘Wow, this guy plays hard, or this guy has a great inside move.’ You take mental notes of all your opponents. We played against LaRon this year. We played against Walden. We watched the film. We go through a process with all the pro scouts and then the coaches remember who they couldn’t block. It’s an entire process. You whittle it down, you target your guys and you look at how much money Jim [Irsay] is willing to spend, and as opposed to last year, we were in a completely different situation, so why not take advantage of that? I had the complete support of a great owner who’s been ultra-supportive in this whole process. He’s as passionate, if not more passionate than any of us. When you talk to him, he wanted to be aggressive. I wanted to be aggressive. Chuck [Pagano] did, because we want to win. I think you have to take these opportunities to acquire talent wholeheartedly, and I feel we did as an organization.”
Landry should upgrade Colts run defense
I factor that same thinking into their signing of Jets free-agent safety LaRon Landry. Adam Schefter confirmed a CBS Sports report that it's a four-year, $24 million deal.
He’s a good player but he played only about half a season in 2010 and 2011 in Washington because of problems with his left Achilles tendon.
But he played every game in his one season with the Jets, notching two interceptions, eight passes defensed and four forced fumbles.
Landry will start opposite Antoine Bethea, taking the place of Tom Zbikowski. Zbikowski was signed last year as a free agent. He had played under Pagano in Baltimore, but is a limited player who is better cast as a third safety and special-teamer.
Scouts Inc. gives Landry its highest rating in run support, and he should be a boon for a run defense that ranked 29th in the league last season and gave up an average of 5.1 yards a carry.
While the contract given to linebacker Erik Walden qualifies as controversial, the Colts see him as a guy who can set the edge on one side of the field against the run. With Landry being a big component in the run defense as well, they have to feel better about their ability to slow down running backs.
Says Scouts Inc: "Landry had arguably the best season of his career in 2012, his first year in New York. He is a tough, hard-nosed run-stopper who is best filling an alley in the running game. He shows good range defending both the run and pass but doesn't have great pure speed in coverage. Landry was able to bounce back from injuries the previous two seasons to bring experience and attitude to the Jets."
I’d rank him the biggest addition of the Colts' six signings in free agency.
Here's Ryan Grigson from the news release announcing the addition of Landry: "We're ecstatic about this signing. We feel LaRon is an absolute game-changer and a true impact player. We're talking about a 220-pound safety that runs 4.3 and plays to that speed. His approach to the game and his style of play are lights out and embody the culture we're building on the defense and this team in general."
AP Photo/Johnny VyColts general manager Ryan Grigson was busy during the first day of free agency.Gosder Cherilus qualifies as a big name and has proven he can be a physical right tackle in the NFL, though I can’t help but wonder about his knee.
Beyond Cherilus, the Colts added four free agents they see as having big upside in their system: outside linebackers Erik Walden and Lawrence Sidbury, cornerback Greg Toler and guard Donald Thomas.
Walden got $4 million a year, which at least one Packers observer found to be way too much. Sidbury’s done very little in Atlanta. Toler (three years, $15 million, per the Baltimore Sun) is talented, but like Jerraud Powers, who he likely replaces, has an injury history. Thomas has mostly worked as a backup.
But they clearly fit with Grigson’s strategy, which he explained to Kravitz.
“We went after under-the-radar free agents. I’m not a person who likes to put all my eggs in one basket, if I can get good players and a handful of them. It just makes good common sense to help the team in a balanced sort of way instead of going for broke with one guy. That’s my mindset.”
That is completely reasonable.
I doubt he’s done. Odds are Grigson still adds a safety, perhaps LaRon Landry. The biggest need now may rank as receiver.
Even if he doesn’t do anything more and just awaits the draft, Grigson has done some serious roster replenishing.
Fans of rebuilding teams who like their leadership often start saying things like, “In Grigson We Trust.”
His record so far has bought him that. If just two of these four guys wind up qualifying as hits, he’ll have done little to lose that faith.
Did Gosder Cherilus' knee worry the Colts?
Tim Fuller/USA TODAY SportsDespite knee issues, ex-Lions offensive lineman Gosder Cherilus has proven durable in his career.Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reported on Feb. 24 that two sources said Cherilus traveled to Germany after the 2012 season “for an alternative treatment on his knee, a procedure that's not yet approved for therapeutic use by the Food and Drug Administration but one that has become increasingly popular with athletes.”
Cherilus, who underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee in December 2010, denied that he went to Germany and that he underwent the treatment.
He’s allowed to do what he chooses to his body, provided he’s not breaking laws or violating league policies against performance enhancing substances. And there are no suggestions in this reporting that he’s done either of those.
I have no issue with a player going overseas for a treatment he might find helpful.
The issue is whether a five-year contractual commitment to a player who apparently required such a treatment is especially risky.
Cherilus has been a durable player for the Lions, appearing in 75 of a possible 80 regular-season games, with 70 starts.
If he’s as durable over the life of his second NFL contract as he was over his first, he could be a key player for the franchise and an important guy in the career of Andrew Luck.
If he has knee problems along the way, we’ll be left wondering if the franchise was skeptical enough of his health.

Cap status: Pretty tight, with just over $9 million in cushion. But the Texans can gain room with a cut (receiver Kevin Walter is the prime candidate) and have lots of room for restructures with receiver Andre Johnson and/or cornerback Johnathan Joseph.
Strategy: Lay back. They are most concerned with their own guys, and safety Glover Quin and outside linebacker Connor Barwin head that list. Lose them and they could be shoppers for replacements, but we're talking midlevel to low-level guys, not the high-priced, top-tier guys getting all of the hype as free agency opens. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has an affinity for guys who've played in his system before, so keep an eye on safety Gerald Sensabaugh and, if he's released, defensive tackle Jay Ratliff. They could patch in some guys later, but anything big early would amount to a big surprise.

Cap status: The Colts have just under $40 million of room. They pledge not to behave like it's burning a hole in their pocket.
Strategy: They will look to strike the right deals with some key new people who can fill holes and add production and leadership. It's easy to draw lines that connect Pagano to guys he's coached in Baltimore such as outside linebacker Paul Kruger and cornerback Cary Williams. They are still looking to fill out the roster with people who can play in Pagano's 3-4 front. The scheme requires at least one more cornerback who can play a lot of man-to-man coverage. Maximizing Andrew Luck's chances for success is a priority, and a couple of linemen are necessary to stay on that mission. Another receiver could be a target, too. But Grigson won't force free-agent moves and hopes to have another impact draft that will have a big bearing on how this team fares, too.

Cap status: They've got more than $26 million in cap room, but they also have a couple of empty spots on the depth chart, such as strong safety, right tackle and left guard.
Strategy: All indications are the Jaguars will slow-play free agency. They are unlikely to jump out and sign a guy or two to big contracts, as some bloated free-agent contracts are one of the issues Caldwell inherits. But Tier 2 guys who the team thinks can be pillars of a new program and lead the way for young players will be the core of the franchise moving forward. They have two guys heading into the market in linebacker Daryl Smith and cornerback Derek Cox. They won't overpay, but losing them will create more holes. And this team is super thin at cornerback already.

Cap status: Over $16 million of room with easily makeable cuts that will save more as the team needs the room and finds guys to add to the roster.
Strategy: More aggressive than usual, in both willingness to spend and number of people they will bring in. This team needs an infusion of talent and leadership. Their top free agents -- tight end Jared Cook and defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks -- are expected to leave. Look for one big signing, perhaps Buffalo guard Andy Levitre, and several more with a lower price tag. Positions that could be addressed include guard, defensive tackle, tight end, cornerback and safety. They may be waiting on their pass-rusher until the draft. This is a huge time for Webster and Munchak, who will really be putting their stamp on the roster with guys they need to lift the team to a better level of play if they want to hold on to their jobs.
How teams avoid scouting groupthink
NFL scouts and talent evaluators are together a great deal, though not always so intimately.
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY SportsNFL scouts intently watch linebacker Manti Te'o run the 40-yard dash during this year's combine.And they have at least casual chit-chat about what they see from, and what they hear about, the players they are gathered to check out.
Such time together doing the same work for 32 teams can put an evaluator in position to be influenced by the gravitational pull of groupthink, a concept that was greeted with sour faces by the people I asked about it at the NFL scouting combine.
“If you point 20 scouts out in the stands, I'm confident they'd all say, ‘I'm so anti-herd mentality,’” said Colts general manager Ryan Grigson, who worked his way up from college scouting. “That's the easy way to go. If you just agree with everyone, then you have shelter. If you stand outside the pack and you beat the drum for something that's not popular, then you stand alone. But it shows you have courage. It also shows you believe in that player and that opinion you formulated by hard work.
“That's something I told our staff when I opened our draft meetings. This is your venue to state your opinion. You were away from your families. You were on the road. You were guzzling coffee and staying in bad hotel rooms and those types of things. Now talk about your guy. You put in all the work, so you should have a strong opinion. I feel like if you go with the flow, you're just going to be an also-ran.”
Older, crusty scouts who have been there and done that and seen it all may be friendly with their peers and popular mentors in the business. But odds are the respect they’ve earned and the longevity in the business result from an ability to see things in players that either boost or lower draft stocks and help make good decisions that involve millions of dollars and a franchise’s fortunes.
I spoke with two scouts about groupthink and herd mentality.
“The percentage of scouts that fall into the herd mentality today is probably 50 to 60 percent,” one scout said. “Twenty years ago, the number was closer to 25 or 30 percent. The median age of scouts has dropped drastically over the past 10 years. This is partly due to the age of general managers has dropped in the past 10 years.
“The younger GMs seem to prefer younger scouts to work under them because they are less opinionated. And most of those young GMs did not grow up on the college side; they grew up in pro scouting or working on the salary cap and in the office answering to someone daily instead of being out on the road scouting and working by themselves, somewhat independently.”
Working alone fosters the sort of independent thinking that is the goal in scouting, and in plenty of other lines of work.
Here at the AFC South blog or on the radio, I strive to have a unique take. But some subjects don’t lend themselves to one. Sometimes, without even realizing it, the tug of prevailing wisdom latches onto me. I hope to catch myself more often than not. But I read and listen to a lot of other opinions. Certainly, herd mentality can slip into my thinking.
Some of it is human nature, and fighting against the current can be difficult work.
A second scout shared his strategy for staying at arm’s length from the competition. He helps keep himself away from the herd mentality by steering clear of the herd.
“I get sick anytime I show up at a school and see other scouts,” he said. “I act cranky, so people think I am a jerk. It usually distracts from conversation. A lot of times I ask coaches I know if I can come in at weird times -- 5 a.m. gives you a three-hour head start and 4 p.m. and staying until late can work too, especially at the big schools.”
General managers at the top of a team’s scouting pyramid can do a lot for their scouting staff by banging the drum for individuality.
Seattle general manager John Schneider said he’s proud his organization gives scouts a lot of leeway. He wants strong opinions. But he also doesn’t expect a scout to know everything all on his own.
“We try to work it where we feel like we don't have all the answers all the time,” Schneider said. “We're looking for more and more questions, and answers to be questioned."
Fear is one big reason to get lured by the herd.
Stick your neck out and be right, and that’s great. But the reward of that success may not be as strong a result for an evaluator as is the failure of going out on a limb and being wrong.
Batting averages for any scout are not going to be close to perfect. In evaluating football players for a living, a scout has to accept he’s going to miss. Ideally, the guy who hired that scout isn’t going to crush him for it. That GM has an opinion and likely a less-than-perfect batting average too.
In another level of groupthink, scouts dread bosses who try to bully underlings to co-sign their opinion, hoping instead that differing viewpoints are always welcome.
“I encourage our scouts to just do the work and have convictions in what you see and let us kind of manage the draft and let us kind of make the decisions for us,” new Jacksonville Jaguars general manager David Caldwell said. “Just give us back what they see.
“I’m never going to be the type of boss to be like, ‘Man, you really missed on that guy.' Because we’re all going to miss. We’re all going to have situations where we maybe undervalue somebody or overvalue somebody.”
How Grigson keeps a 'buzz guys' list
Two years ago he was director of player personnel for Philadelphia, where scouting was still his primary job. Last year he had a bigger job as the first-year general manager of the Colts, and with his head coach missing 12 games while he battled leukemia, Grigson wasn’t on the road as much as he might have planned.
So during the combine he was at a different stage of learning about prospects.
In meetings before the combine, the team set its initial draft board.
“That gave me a better picture because I didn't get to look at 350 guys like I did last year before I came in,” he said. “I don't have that catalog or reference point. I'm grinding in that respect. I told Jim Irsay this [recently]: The picture is a little murky, but every day it gets a little bit clearer with more information. The more film I get, the more passionate pleas I get from my scouts about players -- watch this guy, watch that guy.
“A lot of times I follow this path of passion. We're sitting in meetings and you're in the doldrums for an hour and everyone is just waiting for the next coffee break. It's like somebody all of a sudden perks up. The whole room perks up when a name gets brought up. I make a note of that. I actually had one of our interns make a list, it's called ‘buzz guys.’ When we're
in the room and you go through 10 guys and no one says a word, then all of a sudden everybody is ready to have a real strong opinion of someone. I follow that.
“If someone moves the needle in terms of talent or first impression, I think that goes a long way. It goes a long way with me, anyway.”
How cool would it be to see the buzz guys list?
Intern, if you’re reading, I promise I won’t share it with anyone.

Rd. 1: April 25, 8 p.m. ET