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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:

Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia last offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.

Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.

The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.

Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame Game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.

By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.

For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.

A few considerations on the Arizona Cardinals' defense after the team reached agreement with franchise player Calais Campbell on a five-year contract:

Line solidified: The Cardinals' starting defensive line is under contract for the next three seasons. Hard as it is to fathom given his youthful exuberance, Darnell Dockett turns 31 later this month. He has missed only one game in eight seasons. Third-year nose tackle Dan Williams becomes the key variable on the line. How well he plays in returning from a broken arm will be critical to the defense.



Key variables at linebacker: The team is mostly going young at this position except for Paris Lenon, who remains the best option at inside linebacker at age 34. Will a full offseason enable Stewart Bradley to overtake Lenon? The odds seem against it based on what we saw from both players last season. Bradley took a pay cut but remains a factor. Re-signing Clark Haggans could provide insurance at outside linebacker, where Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield remain unproven despite showing promise to this point.

Finding another corner: I've listed A.J. Jefferson as the projected starter opposite Patrick Peterson, but that is hardly a given. The team has several candidates, but no clear favorite for the job. Teams use more than two corners in combination frequently, so perhaps it's less important which ones wind up starting in the base defense. William Gay, Greg Toler, Jefferson and Jamell Fleming are options, with 5-foot-8 Michael Adams projecting in more of a rotational role because of his size. Fleming, a third-round pick, will get a chance to play multiple positions in the secondary, according to coordinator Ray Horton.

Can the Arizona Cardinals' defense maintain the growth it showed late last season, outpacing whatever gains the San Francisco 49ers make on offense?

Joshua Steuter asked that question and a few others via Facebook as part of our ongoing discussion. We could have asked additional questions about Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and the quarterback situation, but we've been having that discussion for nine months already.

The answer to Joshua's question could hinge on a few variables:

• NFC West Big Question

  •  Arizona Cardinals
  •  St. Louis Rams
  •  San Francisco 49ers
  •  Seattle Seahawks

  Dan Williams' recovery: Williams, the Cardinals' first-round draft pick in 2010, is returning from a nasty arm injury suffered against the 49ers late last season. Arizona should remain strong at both defensive end spots. Darnell Dockett and franchise player Calais Campbell are established players. Williams was showing signs of becoming one before the injury. Conditioning can be a concern for him. As a first-round talent, he holds the key to determining whether the Cardinals field one of the best 3-4 fronts in the game.
• Stewart Bradley's transition: Arizona's coaches had big plans for Bradley heading into last season. They envisioned pairing him with Daryl Washington to get pressure with inside blitzes. Do those dreams live? Bradley struggled with the transition from a 4-3 defense to the 3-4. Paris Lenon beat him out and played well enough to keep the job. Were the Cardinals really that wrong on Bradley? Did the lockout-affected offseason merely delay the transition? The Cardinals will find out for sure this season. They've got a full offseason to make this work. Bradley did take a pay cut.
• Acho/Schofield progression. The Cardinals were the only NFL team to go through the 2012 draft without selecting a player for their front seven. They had needs on offense, but they also showed faith in some of their emerging defensive players, including outside linebackers Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield. Acho had seven sacks last season. Schofield had 4.5 sacks. Getting one of those players into double digits would signal the continued development Arizona needs to keep its defense on the upswing.
• Next step for Peterson: Cornerback Patrick Peterson should take a significant step forward, improving the Cardinals' ability to match up with a reconfigured 49ers receiving corps featuring Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. Peterson scored four touchdowns on punt returns last season. I like his chances to score on defense this season as well. He'll relish a chance to match up with Moss.

The Cardinals' defense held San Francisco to 23 and 19 points last season despite occasionally horrible play from Arizona's offense. The 49ers converted 11 of 48 times on third down against Arizona, including 3 of 17 times during the Cardinals' Dec. 11 victory over San Francisco.

I'm expecting Arizona's defense to keep pace in this matchup.

Welcome to the 2012 NFL season. The games are not yet here, of course, but most teams have long since shifted their mindsets forward.

Tuesday brought a first look at free agency for NFC West teams. Now comes a first look at the draft, to be revisited as teams add and subtract players in free agency.

Thanks to those who left comments suggesting topics for this space. I've targeted a few for future items and drawn on the general thrust — more free agency and draft stuff, please — for this one. The comments affirmed how much we look forward to NFL offseasons.

Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. offered general thoughts on potential considerations for each team.

Here we go ...

St. Louis Rams

First-round position: second overall.

Three primary needs: WR, OLB, OL

In the spotlight: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Mocking it up: Kiper has the Rams selecting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon. McShay has them selecting USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil.

Muench's thoughts: "The first thing that jumps out at me is the value at No. 2. Blackmon is the best receiver in the group, but No. 2 is way too rich to take a receiver in this draft, especially Blackmon, who is not Julio Jones or A.J. Green. The Rams need help at outside linebacker, but the value is not there. This defensive tackle class is very poor. When you look at those offensive tackles and what the Rams have already spent on the position, I understand the hesitation, but going after Kalil or Iowa's Riley Reiff, depending on which one they like, would make sense. Reiff is more balanced and fundamentally sound. Kalil has more talent. Blackmon would make sense if the Rams traded back, but if they are stuck at No. 2, offensive tackle makes the most sense."

Sando's follow-up: The top two needs listed are the same ones I listed in a similar item one year ago, but there are new needs sprouting up. Defensive tackle was the third need one year ago, and it remains a big need for St. Louis. The situation on the offensive line is unsettled enough to give that position a priority. Using another early choice for a tackle would not inspire much excitement in St. Louis. The need for playmakers appears paramount. Whatever the Rams do, they absolutely, positively must give quarterback Sam Bradford a fighting chance. Another season filled with sacks and injuries could inflict long-term damage to his career. Coach Jeff Fisher and coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will gear the offense toward the ground game in an effort to protect Bradford.

Seattle Seahawks

First-round position: 11th or 12th overall

Three primary needs: QB, DE, LB

In the spotlight: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Mocking it up: Kiper has the Seahawks selecting South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram. McShay thinks Alabama running back Trent Richardson could be the choice.

Muench's thoughts: "The Seahawks are not in a great spot given their needs. Quinton Coples from North Carolina could be the edge rusher who starts from Day One and is more than just a situational player, but I do not think he'll be there when Seattle picks. He is almost 6-foot-6 and weighs 281 pounds. A lot of guys with his talent protect themselves during the offseason, but Coples worked his butt off at Senior Bowl practices and had a great game, too. Ingram does not have great size, but he is explosive enough and strong enough to play defensive end. At quarterback, there's a big drop after Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Ryan Tannehill could go at the end of the first round, but No. 11 or 12 is way too rich. Brock Osweiler moves very well for a quarterback of his height. These are interesting guys and all it takes is for one team to fall in love with them, but you are reaching if you do it at No. 11 or 12. The reality is that there are so few good quarterbacks in most drafts. It usually doesn't work out when you force the issue."

Sando's follow-up: Finding a long-term quarterback remains the top priority for the Seahawks, but once again the planets appear reluctant to align for them. Parting with Matt Hasselbeck and passing over Andy Dalton have left Seattle with Tarvaris Jackson and developmental quarterback Josh Portis. Chasing after Peyton Manning could make sense for the Seahawks. They have good young players. Adding a front-line quarterback could put them over the top in the division. Linebacker has replaced the offensive line as a primary need for the Seahawks. That should not be the case, in theory, because the team had so much invested in a couple of relatively young linebackers. Aaron Curry and Lofa Tatupu are gone, however, and David Hawthorne is a free agent. The team could move K.J. Wright into the middle.

Arizona Cardinals

First-round position: 13th

Three primary needs: OT, LB, WR

In the spotlight: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

Mocking it up: Kiper has the Cardinals taking Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin. McShay has them taking Martin's teammate, guard David DeCastro.

Muench's thoughts: "Kalil and Reiff are the highest-rated tackles. I doubt either one will be there at No. 13. Martin makes sense because of his upside more than anything, but he is not a mauler. He could be gone at 13 if there is a run on tackles, but he might be a reach that early, anyway. There is another dropoff after him, too. This is not a great tackle class. Thirteen is a little early for Kendall Wright, the Baylor receiver, even if he has a good combine. Wright's stock is rising, but because of his size (5-10, 194), he won't win as many one-on-one battles. There was a big jump from 2010 to 2011 in his consistency with his hands and his route running. Adding a pass-rusher is more interesting for me because Ingram and Alabama's Courtney Upshaw could fit. Upshaw doesn't have that idea closing speed, but his initial burst and power are impressive. He can get off blocks. He will be a productive edge rusher. Some 3-4 teams prefer taller outside linebackers, but Arizona and Pittsburgh have gotten away with shorter guys. Ingram and Upshaw are both in that 6-1 or 6-2 range. Neither will be great in coverage, but that has been overrated a little bit. Basically, he has to be able to hold up in underneath zone."

Sando follow-up: The Cardinals haven't drafted an offensive lineman early since selecting Levi Brown fifth overall in 2007. If Brown returns, it will be at a reduced rate. Upgrading the pass protection seems important, in my view, because quarterback Kevin Kolb has not shown great pocket awareness. He has also had injury problems. Landing Manning would obviously change those dynamics. Manning has succeeded for years without top talent across the line. The depth at receiver could use stabilizing, particularly if Early Doucet becomes the latest secondary Arizona target to depart. But with Larry Fitzgerald on the team, the position is in good hands. Very good hands. Some Cardinals fans have pointed to strong sack numbers as evidence Arizona doesn't need to make significant upgrades in that area. Have you ever met a defensive coordinator satisfied with his pass rush? O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho have shown promise. They are not good enough for the Cardinals to lean back in their chairs and feel great about their outside rush for the next few years.

San Francisco 49ers

First-round position: 30th

Three primary needs: WR, CB, OL

In the spotlight: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Mocking it up: Kiper points to South Carolina receiver Alshon Jeffery as a possibility. McShay goes with Nebraska cornerback Alfonzo Dennard.

Muench's thoughts: "Blackmon, Michael Floyd and Wright will be gone. That is your top tier of receivers. In a perfect world, you hope Wright or Floyd slips to you. Floyd makes sense in that scheme because of his ability to stretch the field, which could help Michael Crabtree underneath and Vernon Davis over the middle. Wright has speed, but he is not the traditional target to win one-on-ones. After that, we have three receivers with second-round grades. LSU's Rueben Randle, Jeffery and Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu are all vertical threats who must work on their route running. Randle might fit the Jim Harbaugh offense because he is quicker off the line. Jeffery must work on his release. Sanu might be the best for that scheme because he is a better route runner and is more consistent with his hands, but he has not shown the same kind of big-play ability. Jeffery's stock has fallen; he doesn't separate particularly well. He did have a good game against Dennard, who is a solid second-round prospect, but he is much bigger than Dennard. Sanu's size is insane and he has great body control, but can he keep his weight down? I do like Dennard at corner. He didn't have a great Senior Bowl week and he is small, but he is tough and I think that is going to go a long way to slow down receivers at the line of scrimmage. He has a short memory and that is so important. Janoris Jenkins and Kirkpatrick are two corners to watch. Both have off-field concerns. I think someone will fall in love with Jenkins and take him before the 49ers pick. Kirkpatrick is a bigger, longer corner. He can be physical. There is a good chance neither makes it that far, but if they do, it would be hard for San Francisco not to snatch one. More than likely, that would offer more value than any receiver they could get in that spot."

Sando follow-up: The 49ers have few obvious, immediate needs. That is a credit to their personnel department and to their coaches. Smith's expected return puts off for at least one season the need for San Francisco to pursue a quarterback. It probably removes the 49ers from the Manning conversation. I think the 49ers have tremendous flexibility picking this late in the draft. They do not need to target a receiver even though the position could use reinforcing after injuries knocked out Josh Morgan and diminished what Braylon Edwards could offer. Re-signing Carlos Rogers would stabilize the cornerback position, as well. The 49ers could justify going in just about any position with this pick.

A few small details remain unsettled heading into the 2012 NFL draft.

Among them:

• order of selection;
• which underclassmen will become eligible;
• which NFL teams will have new coaches/general managers;
• how prospects will perform in bowl games, all-star games, the combine and in personal workouts;
• how team needs will evolve in relation to injuries;
• how teams will address needs in free agency before the draft.

That means we can cut Todd McShay a little slack if his first 2012 NFL mock draft, published for Insider subscribers Wednesday, winds up serving as only a general guide some four months before the draft itself. McShay has St. Louis taking USC tackle Matt Kalil second overall; Arizona taking Alabama outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw at No. 13; Seattle taking Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones at No. 16; and San Francisco selecting Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright at No. 30.

The Rams have used the second and 33rd overall choices for offensive tackles since 2009. Drafting another one early would reflect an organization spinning its wheels. That might be an accurate reflection. Jason Smith, chosen second overall in 2010, almost certainly will not return at his current salary.

Arizona does need additional options at outside linebacker even with Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield contributing recently. McShay considers offensive tackle a greater need for the Cardinals, but he questions whether the value would be right where the Cardinals are projected to select.

Seattle could use a quarterback to develop and even compete for the starting job. That was the case a year ago, but the Seahawks surprisingly made a run to the playoffs and beat New Orleans in the wild-card round, dropping them from eighth to 25th in the 2011 order. Tarvaris Jackson is in position to return as the incumbent starter. The team also thinks third-stringer Josh Portis has a chance to develop. Drafting a quarterback would give Seattle a promising mix at the position.

For the 49ers, I might question the value of selecting another receiver in the first round. The team used the 10th choice of the 2009 draft for Michael Crabtree. I see greater needs in the secondary and would not argue if the team drafted yet another player for its already strong defensive front seven.

The Arizona Cardinals won Sunday despite finishing with only 12 first downs and a 21 percent conversion rate on third down. They won despite losing the turnover battle.

Their 21-19 victory over the San Francisco 49ers marked the third time since 1940 a Cardinals team has won a game with two-plus interceptions and zero takeaways, according to Pro Football Reference. A combination of stifling defense, poor opposing offense and sensational play from receiver Larry Fitzgerald lifted Arizona.

Quarterback John Skelton finished the game with a career-high NFL passer rating of 106.5. But with Cardinals receivers gaining 180 yards after the catch, a season high by 84 yards, Skelton emerged from the game with a middling 44.1 out of 100 in Total QBR.

Huge gaps between NFL passer rating and QBR have been fairly common in the NFC West this season. QBR has sometimes downgraded Skelton's teammate, Kevin Kolb, and 49ers starter Alex Smith even when raw passing stats suggested they played well.

Those quarterbacks' season-long QBR scores are all below 50, which represents average play. Sacks have been a leading factor most of the season.

Cardinals receivers, running backs and tight ends have also gained significant yards after the catch. Quarterbacks share blame for sacks and credit for yards after the catch under the QBR formula, one reason Arizona's scores have lagged.

Fitzgerald made the pivotal plays for Arizona on offense. Among his contributions:

• Throwing the key block on Early Doucet's 60-yard scoring reception;
• Tracking down 49ers safety Dashon Goldson following an interception return in Cardinals territory, saving a potential touchdown;
• Heading off another potential Goldson interception with a leaping grab, followed by an improbable spin move and dash for the end zone for a 46-yard touchdown;
• Setting up another Cardinals touchdown by turning a short pass into a 53-yard gain.

The Cardinals, more than any NFC West team, have proven an ability to strike for big plays on a historic scale.

From 1990 through last season, no Cardinals quarterback threw two scoring passes of at least 40 yards in the same game, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Skelton did it Sunday. Kolb did it against Carolina in the regular-season opener. Those games featured the team's highest totals for yards after the catch. That helps explain the gaps between triple-digit passer ratings and roughly average QBR scores in those games.

The chart shows game-by-game and full-season QBR scores for NFC West quarterbacks heading into the St. Louis Rams' game against the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson now holds the top season-long QBR score for the division after Smith's season-low 9.4 QBR against Arizona dragged him down.

Note: Check out newly configured expanded QBR pages showing breakdowns across multiple categories, including by division. The 49ers' Smith owns the four highest scores among NFC West quarterbacks this season.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 14 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (44.1 QBR, 106.5 NFL rating): Skelton completed 19 of 28 passes for 282 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions, one sack and one fumble (lost). He scrambled six times for 25 yards. Skelton played poorly enough to lose the game, then well enough to win it thanks to tremendous play from the Cardinals' defense and what should stand as one of Fitzgerald's finest games. Skelton showed great improvement from his previous start against the 49ers. He played better than expected against a strong defense, and he did it without taking many practice reps. This was a step forward for Skelton and his efforts to remain a viable No. 2 quarterback. His size and strength gave him and advantage over Kolb when it came to extending plays.
• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (9.4 QBR, 62.3 NFL rating): Smith completed 18 of 37 passes for 175 yards with no touchdowns, no interceptions, five sacks and one rush for minus-3 yards. He did not fumble. The 49ers suffered no turnovers, in part because the Cardinals failed to capitalize on a couple prime opportunities, including one on a pass Sam Acho tipped to himself. Smith did little to lift an offense whose troubles extend beyond the red zone. He faced third-and-12 or longer five times. Protection faltered, and Smith wasn't able to find quick outlets against pressure. Coach Jim Harbaugh said the game plan called for more passes than usual. The odds were against Smith and he could not overcome them.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 14.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1.. Free-agent wide receivers. Sidney Rice, the Seattle Seahawks' marquee addition in free agency, landed on injured reserve following his second concussion of the season. Shoulder, knee and foot injuries bothered him earlier. Another free-agent receiver in the division, Braylon Edwards, was inactive for the 49ers while recovering from knee and shoulder injuries. The 49ers invested far less in Edwards than Seattle invested in Rice. Still, these big-name receivers have seen their stock fall. Cheaper, younger alternatives stepped up Sunday, notably the 49ers' Kyle Williams and the Arizona Cardinals' Andre Roberts. Seattle has gotten strong play from undrafted rookie Doug Baldwin all season.

2. Job security in St. Louis. The Rams have lost twice to John Skelton over the past month. They failed to score against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. They are trending in the wrong direction and appear unable to do anything about it. Consider this your weekly "falling" item on the Rams. Not much more to say.

3. Bill Leavy's self-esteem. What's this about the league assigning the Super Bowl XL referee to work a game in Seattle for the first time since the Seahawks complained about multiple controversial calls in the big game six years ago? It's scheduled to happen Monday night. Fans have long memories and loud voices. This could be a rough night for Leavy.

RISING

1. Jed York, San Francisco 49ers president. The week would have been a success for York and the 49ers even if the team did not clinch the NFC West title. That is because the 49ers secured $850 million in financing for their proposed stadium. Throwing in a 26-0 home victory over St. Louis for a 10-2 record, division title and team's first playoff berth since the 2002 season was certainly nice, of course. Stocks are rising for quite a few other 49ers, including Williams, new franchise career rushing leader Frank Gore, quarterback Alex Smith, receiver Michael Crabtree, rookie outside linebacker Aldon Smith and others. There wasn't space to honor them all.

2. Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks QB. Jackson appeared to be winding down for the season until he completed 13 of 16 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns during a 31-14 victory over Philadelphia. Marshawn Lynch certainly could have represented Seattle in this spot as well. He was phenomenal against the Eagles. Lynch's stock was already quite high, however. Jackson's enjoyed a higher percentage gain, for sure. This was probably his best game of the season even though the team lost Rice to injured reserve a few days before the game.

3. Ray Horton, Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator. The Cardinals have won four of their last five games, allowing 63 points in those victories. They held Dallas to 13 points, the Cowboys' second-lowest total of the season. They collected five sacks, a high against Dallas this season. Young outside linebackers Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield are improving. Arizona has allowed only five touchdowns in its past five games after allowing 20 in its first seven.

A quick look through the NFL rookie sack leaders shows NFC West teams with three of the top 10 producers, led by the San Francisco 49ers’ Aldon Smith with 9.5.

This is how it should be.

NFC West teams drafted two of the first three outside pass-rushers in 2011.

Denver’s Von Miller, the first pass-rusher chosen, leads all rookies with 10. 5 sacks. The 49ers’ Smith, drafted seventh overall, was the second outside rusher chosen. The St. Louis Rams’ Robert Quinn, tied for eighth on the list with five sacks, was the third outside rusher chosen. Houston’s J.J. Watt has more sacks than Quinn, but as a 3-4 defensive end, he’s not a pure outside rusher.

Arizona’s Sam Acho has outproduced his draft status as a fourth-round choice. Acho has five sacks in the Cardinals’ past seven games, though three of Arizona’s past four opponents have held him without one.

Sacks aren’t the only measure of a pass-rusher’s performance. The good ones tend to rack up a lot of them, however.

Charles Haley holds the 49ers' rookie record since the NFL began tracking sacks in 1982. He had 12.5 sacks during the 1986 season. Dana Stubblefield had 10.5 sacks during 1993, his rookie season.

Smith needs 3.5 sacks over the 49ers' final four games to pass Haley. He has all 9.5 of his sacks in the 49ers' past nine games, including two during the 49ers' division-clinching victory over St. Louis on Sunday.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams coach. The Rams went 0-2 against Seattle and Arizona during their recently completed two-game homestand, likely the Rams' best remaining chance to get something going under their embattled coach. The Rams created turnovers and built early leads in both games, but they were too fragile to withstand any challenges from their opponents. Allowing 268 yards rushing against the Cardinals left the Rams appearing helplessly overmatched at home against a previously 3-7 team with John Skelton at quarterback. The team now must play 9-2 San Francisco (twice), 8-3 Pittsburgh, 7-4 Cincinnati and the same Seattle team that dominated the Rams in the Edward Jones Dome.

2. Mike Williams, Seattle Seahawks receiver. The team's leading receiver from 2010 dropped passes and did not adjust to his scrambling quarterback during a 23-17 home defeat to the Washington Redskins. Williams' career revival made for an appealing storyline last season. Lately, though, Williams is more closely resembling the disappointing player he became earlier in his career. He finished with zero receptions against the Redskins.

3. Braylon Edwards, San Francisco 49ers receiver. Injuries have played a role in Edwards' struggles lately. Still, he's squandered chances to make plays. The 49ers could have used Edwards to fight for position and the ball to prevent Alex Smith's deep pass from being intercepted shortly before halftime during the team's 16-6 defeat at Baltimore. Edwards attributed the play to a misunderstanding with Smith over the best route to run against the Ravens' coverage on the play. Edwards has only 14 catches this season. His yards per reception have fallen from 17.1 with the New York Jets last season to 12.3 in 2011.

RISING

1. Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals running back. Wells had rushed for 198 yards over his previous four games before gashing the Rams for a franchise-record 228 yards Sunday. The total was the second-highest in the NFL this season, trailing only the 253 yards Dallas' DeMarco Murray racked up against ... yes, the Rams. Wells' 8.44-yard average per carry was the most since 1960 for a Cardinals player with at least 25 attempts in a game. Wayne Morris set the previous record (6.56) against Minnesota in 1977.

2. Patrick Peterson, Cardinals return specialist. Peterson's 80-yard punt return for a touchdown against the Rams gave him four of that distance or longer in only 11 games as a professional. Peterson is one of six players in league history with four punt returns for touchdowns covering at least 80 yards apiece. He needed only 31 returns to do it. Devin Hester has five in 197 career returns. Peterson and Hall of Famer Jack Christiansen are the only players with four punt returns for touchdowns during their rookie seasons. Christiansen did it in 1951.

3. Sam Acho, Cardinals outside linebacker. The rookie fourth-round draft choice has five sacks since Week 7 after collecting two against the Rams. Arizona badly needed to develop young outside pass-rushers this season. Acho has made a positive impression during his first five starts. The team should know by season's end whether Acho projects as a starter for years to come. With Acho developing, it's looking like Joey Porter has played his final game for the Cardinals.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks coach. Coaches lose credibility with their players over time when they risk defeat with imprudent decisions. Carroll handled the quarterback situation questionably against Cincinnati on Sunday. He clearly botched the sequence when the first-half clock ran out, preventing the Seahawks from getting points. He did not stop the team from calling another option running play for quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, even though Jackson was still playing with an injury stemming from the last time Seattle called such a play. Making mistakes is bad enough. Refusing to correct them is worse. Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times recently ran through some of the other questionable decisions from Carroll. The Seahawks deserve better for their $35 million investment.

2. Russ Grimm, Arizona Cardinals assistant head coach/offensive line. Grimm's Hall of Fame pedigree and long-established reputation as a top offensive line coach have largely buffered him from criticism. That should change given where the Cardinals' line stands five seasons into Grimm's tenure with Arizona. Grimm hasn't been able to turn a top-five draft choice, Levi Brown, into even an average starting NFL tackle. Quarterback Kevin Kolb, though largely to blame for holding the ball too long, nonetheless needs better protection than the Cardinals' line has afforded him.

3. Charlie Whitehurst, Seahawks QB. Carroll's patience with Whitehurst finally ran out against the Bengals. Whitehurst is likely finished in Seattle unless an injury forces him into the lineup and he suddenly performs at a high level for an extended stretch. The team needed to find out about Whitehurst this season. Carroll made it clear he's seen enough when he benched Whitehurst after only seven pass attempts Sunday. Whitehurst took two sacks during his brief time on the field. He appeared unsettled by the rush and unsure what to do.

RISING

1. Steven Jackson, Rams RB. Jackson is the Rams' emotional leader, but that leadership had its limits when a quadriceps injury was preventing Jackson from performing at high level. Jackson has shown over the past two games an ability to run with abandon. Jackson carried 25 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' 31-21 upset of New Orleans. He now has 28 career 100-yard rushing performances with the Rams, one more than Marshall Faulk. Only Eric Dickerson (38) has more in franchise history. Jackson's four receptions tied him with Elroy "Crazy Legs" Hirsch for sixth on the Rams' career list (343 catches). Jackson also moved past Faulk for third on the Rams' list for most yards from scrimmage.

2. Chris Long, Rams DE. Long's three-sack performance against Drew Brees and the Saints came after a quiet week for Long and the Rams' defense at Dallas. This was a breakout game in every way. Long had one sack in each of the Rams' first three games this season. He then went three games without one before breaking through against Saints right tackle Charles Brown. Long next faces an Arizona team that has juggled personnel at right tackle, switching between Brandon Keith and Jeremy Bridges. Long's rise could continue.

3. Robert Quinn, Rams DE. A few unestablished young players in the division qualified for consideration in this spot. Richard Sherman, Greg Salas, Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield come to mind. Patrick Peterson was another consideration, but his punt return for a touchdown wasn't his first of the season, and the Cardinals ultimately lost. The San Francisco 49ers' collective stock has already surged, making it tough to pinpoint one player from that team following a routine victory over Cleveland. I went with Quinn because his stock had sagged quite a bit early in the season. He wasn't even active for the opener. But with a sack and blocked punt against New Orleans, the rookie first-round draft choice played an important role in the Rams' first victory of the season.

The Arizona Cardinals hoped young pass-rushers Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield would develop as the 2011 season progressed.

That appears to be happening during a season when player development has become a more realistic goal than overall team success. Acho and Schofield have combined for three sacks and two forced fumbles over the Cardinals' past two games.

Schofield's sack and forced fumble against Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens was the NFC West's most pivotal play in Week 8, measured by its affect on win probability, according to ESPN's analytics team. The play improved the Cardinals' chances from 43.9 percent to 66.9 percent, based on how similar plays in similar situations have affected previous games.

The 23-point differential placed Schofield's sack and Darnell Dockett's fumble recovery at the Baltimore 2-yard line atop the NFC West list this week. All five plays stemmed from the Ravens' 30-27 victory, which featured the NFL's fifth comeback victory this season from at least 20 points down. That is an NFL record.

Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb shows up twice on the chart, once for a positive play and once for a negative one. Consistency has eluded him.

League-wide, Cam Newton's 44-yard pass to Brandon LaFell on fourth-and-15 with 1:09 remaining produced the largest change in win probability, 38.5 points (from 18.9 percent to 57.4 percent). Carolina trailed by three points at the time.

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Thoughts on the Arizona Cardinals' 30-27 road defeat against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8:

What it means: The Cardinals have now blown second-half leads in losing to Washington, Seattle, the New York Giants and Baltimore, making it tough to build on what progress they did show while building a 24-6 halftime lead against the Ravens. At 1-6, the Cardinals face three consecutive road games following a Week 9 home date with St. Louis, which appeared reborn while upsetting New Orleans.

What I liked: Kevin Kolb absorbed quite a bit of punishment early, but hung tough and drove the Cardinals in position to take a first-quarter lead. His 66-yard completion to Larry Fitzgerald was the longest play against the Ravens this season. Beanie Wells played despite a knee injury and scored a go-ahead touchdown in the second quarter. Rookie first-round pick Patrick Peterson, having already revived the Cardinals' punt-return game this season, scored on an 82-yarder to give Arizona welcome breathing room. The Cardinals finally turned the page at outside linebacker, giving rookie Sam Acho the start over an inactive Joey Porter while also finding time for O'Brien Schofield. Both players recorded sacks. Richard Marshall's interception was a big play for Arizona. The Cardinals held Joe Flacco without a touchdown pass. They allowed only 107 yards rushing, a respectable number.

What I didn't like: The passing game remained inconsistent. The pressure Baltimore put on Kolb was a big factor. Kolb remained hit-and-miss in how he dealt with the pressure. Sometimes, he scrambled to make plays, as when he found Early Doucet in the first half. He somehow avoided a sack that might have moved the team out of realistic field-goal range while trailing 27-24. Other times, Kolb risked sacks and turnovers. He's an adventure at a position where teams need consistency over time. The Cardinals converted just twice on 11 third-down opportunities. The offense managed only 207 yards compared to 405 for the Ravens. On defense, cornerback A.J. Jefferson had a rough game against Anquan Boldin. The Cardinals eventually changed up their coverage plan as a result. Jefferson was not on the field late.

What's next: The Cardinals are home against the St. Louis Rams in Week 9.

The Arizona Cardinals' efforts to develop young players and integrate new ones on defense continues to stagnate.

The reasons are simple to understand.
First-year coordinator Ray Horton is installing a complex new system that would be tough for young players to absorb even with a full offseason. And the team's highest-priced defensive addition in free agency, inside linebacker Stewart Bradley, came from a vastly different system, so he was going to face a transition period as well.

Finally, the Cardinals haven't done a great job drafting young personnel to fit their new system.

I found useful comments New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick made recently in explaining why his team has leaned less heavily on a pure 3-4 defense:

"We've played a mixture of odd fronts and even fronts, but I just felt like from a starting point -- given the lack of spring opportunities to practice and meet, and the shortened training camp in terms of actual number of practices -- that from a teaching standpoint, we felt like there would be more carryover teaching our base defense and nickel defense really as one front.

"We wanted a lot of carryover between our run responsibilities and run fits, and some of our pressure defenses and things like that. We'll transition and build into some of our odds fronts, but we felt like in trying to evaluate young players, asking them to learn one system in a 3-4 and then learn another system in nickel [was too much].

"As you know, we were in nickel defense just as much as we were 3-4 defense because of teams using multiple receivers on early downs and two-minute and all those kind of things. So, we felt like it would be a better opportunity to evaluate our players and not try to over-install and put in a ton of defense.

"There are so many intricacies to a 3-4 defense that I just didn't know if we'd be ready to handle them this year."

The Cardinals have scaled back. And, unlike the Patriots, they have not had Belichick teaching and overseeing their defense since 2000. Horton is finding his way as a coordinator and still getting a feel for the personnel he inherited. He also doesn't benefit from a Tom Brady-led offense putting points on the board and pulling out victories even when the defense falters.

What the Cardinals do have in their favor, at least this week, is great familiarity with the upcoming opponent, Pittsburgh. Horton coached the Steelers' secondary, so he should know how to scheme for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Arizona coaches Ken Whisehunt and Russ Grimm, among others, also have roots with the Steelers. And Arizona is coming off a bye week, which gave coaches needed time to reassess.

The first chart shows snap counts and percentages for the Cardinals' defensive players, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Younger players such as O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho will presumably get more playing time as the season progresses. Bradley's snap counts are also much lower than I would have anticipated coming into the season.

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Looking back on three things discussed here before the Arizona Cardinals' preseason game against the Denver Broncos on Thursday night:

1. Patrick Peterson's impact: Peterson was in the lineup opposite A.J. Jefferson after the Cardinals lost incumbent starting corner Greg Toler to a season-ending knee injury. That was no shock. Peterson was the fifth overall choice in the draft, after all. If he wasn't going to start after the team traded Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and lost Toler for the season, what would it take? Of course, Peterson is going t play extensively this season whether or not he starts right away. He gained 10 yards on a punt return against the Broncos and nearly had more, but this game wouldn't feature another big play from him. Peterson had returned an interception 34 yards for a touchdown in the team's previous exhibition game. He didn't register a stat in this one.

2. Quarterback depth: Kevin Kolb, Rich Bartel and Brodie Croyle played for the Cardinals. The offensive line kept them well protected for the most part. Kolb attempted only two passes, getting out of the game early. Bartel completed 12 of 16 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. His passer rating was 130.2. This was a positive step for Bartel, a candidate to open the season as the Cardinals' No. 2 quarterback, ahead of John Skelton. Skelton missed this game with an ankle injury. Bartel has played well enough in Skelton's absence to merit strong consideration for the No. 2 role, but Kolb is the only quarterback on the team whose place on the depth chart is entirely secure.

3. Young pass-rushers: Will Davis got pressure a few times. Sam Acho had three tackles. I was looking to see whether or not O'Brien Schofield would make an impact. This was pretty much a throwaway game, however. Brady Quinn started at quarterback for the Broncos, completing 4 of 12 passes with a 2.2-yard average per attempt. The Cardinals were leading 26-0 midway through the fourth quarter when I decided to publish this item rather than wait through the remainder of the game. Bring on the regular season, please.

Ryan Williams' confirmed season-ending injury will prevent the Arizona Cardinals' 2011 draft class from reaching its expected potential this season.

Williams, injured while carrying the ball against Green Bay in the Cardinals' preseason game Friday night, was pushing Beanie Wells for playing time. He projected as a potential starter, perhaps as early as this season.

The Cardinals should still expect significant contributions from their 2011 draft class.

It's an upset if Patrick Peterson doesn't take over as the starting left cornerback early in the season.

Third-rounder Rob Housler needs seasoning as a blocker, but his receiving skills have stood out during preseason. He caught a touchdown pass in the opener and led Arizona in receptions with five against Green Bay.

Anthony Sherman made an immediate positive impression at fullback early in camp. He caught a pass for a 6-yard gain on third-and-2 against the Packers.

David Carter went from projected defensive end to No. 2 nose tackle early in camp.

Receiver DeMarco Sampson, the Cardinals' seventh-round pick, has continued to produce during preseason games after impressing during camp practices. He had three receptions for 68 yards against the Packers, including one for a 45-yard gain.

The chart shows the Cardinals' 2011 draft class, sorted by order chosen.