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As I've already indicated on Twitter, I won't fill up your timelines or this blog with news of every undrafted rookie who signs with an NFC North team. Roster limits have been expanded to 90, which means we could be talking about 100 or so players signing contracts over the next day or two.

If an interesting or noteworthy player signs, then by all means I'll get to it. We already have one: The Detroit Lions have agreed to terms with Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, who had a 50-3 starter as a starter and was teammates with Lions receiver Titus Young. But at 6-feet and 197 pounds and an average arm, Moore apparently wasn't deemed draft-worthy by NFL teams.

The Lions are set at starter with Matthew Stafford and at No. 2 with Shaun Hill, but I wouldn't be surprised if Moore makes the final roster as the No. 3 quarterback. The video is a clip of his time at Jon Gruden's QB Camp, one we somehow missed during our pre-draft tour of those sessions.

Asked how he regards the people who don't think he has a chance to play in the NFL, Moore said: "You smile at them, say thank you and remember their name."

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Chicago Bears

Key additions: Running back Michael Bush, linebacker/special teams Blake Costanzo, quarterback Jason Campbell, receiver Brandon Marshall (trade), receiver Devin Thomas, receiver/returner Eric Weems.

Key losses: Running back Marion Barber (retired), cornerback Zack Bowman, cornerback Corey Graham.

Come on back: Lost in the shuffle of the Marshall trade were the return of three free agents who should play key roles in 2012. Tight end Kellen Davis figures to get an expanded role in offensive coordinator Mike Tice's scheme, especially as a receiver. Cornerback Tim Jennings should retain his starting role opposite Charles Tillman, with D.J. Moore in the nickel. And safety Craig Steltz will provide reliable depth at safety and will be one of the Bears' special teams leaders after the departure of Graham and Bowman.

What's next: There is no urgency yet, but the Bears will need to make peace with tailback Matt Forte at some point before the summer. Forte isn't happy that he's been made the Bears' franchise player and briefly lost his public composure when Bush signed a deal that guaranteed him about the same amount of money as the franchise tag will pay Forte. It's not a big deal if Forte skips the Bears' offseason program or even misses a few days of training camp, but the Bears will want to find a way to eliminate this issue by early August. Meanwhile, it wouldn't be surprising if the Bears address their offensive line during the draft.

Detroit Lions

Key additions: Defensive end Everette Brown, cornerback Jacob Lacey.

Key losses: Cornerback Eric Wright.

All in the family: With the exception of Wright, the Lions were able to retain the core of their 10-6 team. Among those who re-signed: Tackle Jeff Backus, safety Erik Coleman, defensive end Andre Fluellen, quarterback Shaun Hill and linebacker Stephen Tulloch. And don't forget that receiver Calvin Johnson is locked up for perhaps the rest of his career. He signed a new eight-year contract worth $132 million.

What's next: The Lions appear interested in adding competition at safety, having hosted free agent O.J. Atogwe earlier this month. Adding a safety remains a possibility, if not through free agency, then probably through the draft. And while Backus is re-signed for two years, it wouldn't be surprising if the Lions look for a long-term replacement in the draft.

Green Bay Packers

Key additions: Defensive lineman Daniel Muir, center Jeff Saturday, defensive lineman Anthony Hargrove.

Key losses: Quarterback Matt Flynn, center Scott Wells.

Shocker: The Packers usually do whatever it takes to keep their own players and avoid having to search the free-agent market for other the castoffs of other teams. They started off that way by re-signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract, but when they were unable to sign center Scott Wells, they quickly targeted veteran Jeff Saturday and made him their first starting-caliber free-agent signee in five years. General manager Ted Thompson also authorized the acquisition of Hargrove and the pursuit of Dave Tollefson.

What's next: It's not out of the question that the Packers will add a veteran pass-rusher, whether at defensive end or linebacker. Then they'll get back into their comfort zone and start preparing for the draft, where it's reasonable to think they'll use at least one of their 12 picks on a center while also continuing to pursue pass-rushers.

Minnesota Vikings

Key additions: Cornerback Zack Bowman, tight end John Carlson, running back Jerome Felton and offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz.

Key losses: Nose tackle Remi Ayodele (release), guards Anthony Herrera (release) and Steve Hutchinson (release), tight end Jim Kleinsasser (retire), running back Jerome Felton.

Methodical methodology: The Vikings made one big-money signing, bringing in Carlson as a new weapon for quarterback Christian Ponder, and otherwise have spent their offseason getting younger and signing complementary players. General manager Rick Spielman wants to end a cycle of seeking blue-chip players via free agency and instead count on the drafts for his difference-makers.

What's next: One way or the other, the Vikings need to find a deep threat for Ponder. The draft would seem the most likely place for that will happen. They are also midway through a rebuild of the secondary that could use at least one more cornerback and perhaps two safeties.

Below are a few award-winning thoughts on the Saturday evening return of left tackle Jeff Backus and backup quarterback Shaun Hill to the Detroit Lions.

• Both players signed two-year deals. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Backus' contract is worth $10 million. We don't yet know what Hill received.
• The Lions never gave an indication they planned to move on from Backus, who will turn 35 during the season and had surgery immediately after the season to repair a torn biceps muscle. They know they will have to replace him sooner than later, but long-term answers at left tackle rarely are available in free agency. They almost always come through the draft, and it's something to keep an eye on next month. The Lions now have the flexibility to draft a possible replacement without needing to insert him immediately into the lineup.
• Veteran Marcus McNeill visited earlier this week, and his situation is a perfect example of how left tackles who are available often are damaged goods in some way. McNeill is a two-time Pro Bowler but has had two neck surgeries and suffers from spinal stenosis. It would have been hard to count on him for more than a year-by-year basis.
• Backus had trouble with some of the NFC North's elite pass-rushers last season, but he is nothing if not reliable. His streak of consecutive games played is 176, and there is every reason to believe his biceps will heal in time for the 2012 regular season.
• Barring an unexpected offer to start for another team, it was difficult to imagine Hill leaving the Lions. He has a long history with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and quarterbacks coach Todd Downing and would have been starting over had he signed with the St. Louis Rams.
• The Lions chose Hill, 32, over Drew Stanton, 27, who departed Friday for what could be the No. 2 job with the New York Jets. Both players had some success during the 2010 season, but Hill was an acquisition of the Lions' current regime while Stanton was a draft choice dating back to the Matt Millen era. I would feel more comfortable with Hill, but there is also an undeniable comfort level between the sides.
• Barring any late Saturday evening news, I'll check in with you Sunday. Night-night.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears

Key free agents: Tight end Kellen Davis, running back Matt Forte (franchise), cornerback Corey Graham, quarterback Caleb Hanie, defensive end Israel Idonije, cornerback Tim Jennings, quarterback Josh McCown, safety Brandon Meriweather and receiver Roy Williams.

Where they stand: The Bears will have the most salary-cap space among NFC North teams, upwards of $30 million, and have plenty of potential uses for it. Quarterback Jay Cutler needs more targets in the downfield passing game, whether it's at the receiver or tight end position. And new general manager Phil Emery must start restocking a defense led by four players more than 30 years old: Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, defensive end Julius Peppers and cornerback Charles Tillman.

What to expect: It's widely believed the Bears will be in the running for free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson. But Jackson's price tag could be steep and no one knows if Emery will prove to be a big spender. It seems likely he will re-sign Davis, and Emery should also save some of his cap space to extend Forte's contract. Secondary receiver targets could include Marques Colston. Bears fans are hoping the team will pursue defensive end Mario Williams, but it's hard to imagine the Bears budgeting for Williams two years after breaking their bank on Peppers.

Detroit Lions

Key free agents: Defensive end Cliff Avril (franchise), left tackle Jeff Backus, safety Chris Harris, quarterback Shaun Hill, linebacker DeAndre Levy (restricted), running back Maurice Morris, running back Kevin Smith, quarterback Drew Stanton, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and cornerback Eric Wright.

Where they stand: The Lions are tight against the salary cap after franchising Avril and aren't likely to be big spenders on the free-agent market. They could relieve the situation by reaching long-term agreements with Avril and/or receiver Calvin Johnson, who has a $22 million cap figure for 2012. Tulloch made a big impact last season after signing a one-year deal, but so far the Lions' attention has turned elsewhere.

What to expect: The Lions' best-case scenario is to keep their 2011 core together without mortgaging their future relative to the salary cap. That would mean getting Tulloch re-signed to preserve the linebacker group they upgraded last season by signing him and veteran Justin Durant, moves that allowed Levy to play on the outside. Hill seems likely to re-sign as Matthew Stafford's backup, while Stanton might test the free-agent waters to see if he has a chance to do better than third on a team's depth chart.

Green Bay Packers

Key free agents: Cornerback Jarrett Bush, quarterback Matt Flynn, running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells.

Where they stand: The Packers took care of a big challenge by signing tight end Jermichael Finley to a two-year contract last month. They will let Flynn depart for a possible starting job elsewhere and it appears Grant will test the free-agent market. Discussions with Wells haven't led to an agreement, but the Packers often go to the final moments before reaching a deal. There are no obvious internal replacements for Wells, making his return a priority.

What to expect: The Packers will have some flexibility with the salary cap, but general manager Ted Thompson's aversion to veteran free agency is well known. It's been three years since he signed a veteran unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The Packers have needs at defensive line, outside linebacker and possibly at center if Wells leaves. But let's put it this way: Thompson's strong preference is to find depth and future replacements in the draft, not on other teams' rosters.

Minnesota Vikings

Key free agents: Safety Husain Abdullah, receiver Devin Aromashodu, receiver Greg Camarillo, defensive lineman Fred Evans, defensive lineman Letroy Guion, linebacker E.J. Henderson, linebacker Erin Henderson, safety Tyrell Johnson, quarterback Sage Rosenfels, cornerback Benny Sapp and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe.

Where they stand: The Vikings seem poised for a major roster overhaul in their first offseason since Rick Spielman was promoted to general manager. Players like Shiancoe, E.J. Henderson, Camarillo and Johnson all seem poised to move on. There aren't many positions on the team that appear secure.

What to expect: If the Vikings don't plan to draft USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall next month, the first clue will be if they pursue a free-agent left tackle. That seems unlikely. But they'll need to combine their draft with at least a few veteran free agents if they intend to compete for a playoff spot in 2012. Cornerback could be a point of focus, where Brandon Carr and Cortland Finnegan are among those available. Another could be receiver. The Vikings had major interest in Jackson two years ago.

DETROIT -- No idea what the San Francisco 49ers were thinking with a slow-developing pass on the first play from scrimmage.

Alex Smith dropped back to pass and took a fumble-forcing sack when Kyle Vanden Bosch beat left tackle Joe Staley around the corner. This was exactly how the 49ers opened their 2009 game at Minnesota a couple years ago, except then it was Jared Allen getting the fumble-forcing sack against Shaun Hill.

Why play into the Lions' strengths on the first play of the game? I'm sure the 49ers' coaches had their reasons. Perhaps Smith changed the play based on the front he saw from the Lions. No matter. The 49ers needed to minimize the chances for mistakes early, and that meant they needed to either get rid of the ball immediately on a quick pass or pound away on the ground.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 4:

Dallas must stop the deep ball: According to ESPN's Stats & Information Group, without which Final Word would not be possible, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has yet to throw an interception this year on a ball thrown 11 or more yards downfield. He threw 14 of them over the past two seasons. SIG also reports that Stafford overthrew top receiver Calvin Johnson 18 times over the past two years on balls that went 11 or more yards downfield and has only done so once this year in 10 attempts. What's it mean? That Stafford is getting better at throwing deep, especially to Johnson, and that the Cowboys must find a way to defend him deep. Whether that means DeMarcus Ware and the pass rush need to get to Stafford quickly enough to take away deep throws or whether Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins have to make plays in the secondary or both, the Cowboys versus the Lions' deep passing game is a key matchup to watch Sunday.

Who should run the ball for the Redskins?: Tim Hightower is clearly the starter and has done some good things. They particularly like him in the passing game, as a receiver and a blocker. But as a runner, he's been underwhelming so far this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per rushing attempt. Part of the issue is that the Redskins are determined to run the ball 30 times a game even if it's not always working, and so whoever's running it is going to find the going tough at times. But rookie Roy Helu, as Hightower's backup, is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on his 16 carries so far. If he gets into games and shows more burst and speed than Hightower, you'd have to think he's a real threat to start stealing carries, no?

McCoy's toughest test so far: The San Francisco 49ers have excelled so far this year in stopping the run with their defensive front. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Niners have held opponents to 2.97 yards per carry when using seven or fewer defenders in the box. Now, Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has the second-most rush yards in the league against seven-or-fewer-man fronts, and is averaging 6.39 yards per carry when teams keep seven or fewer in the box. So, something's got to give there.

Eli owns October: Giants quarterback Eli Manning has a career record of 20-4 in the month of October. Among quarterbacks with at least 15 October starts since 1950, only Otto Graham (22-4) has a better record in the month. The key for Manning is always to limit turnovers, and last week's victory in Philadelphia broke a streak of seven straight games in which he'd thrown at least one interception. Over the past three seasons, the Giants are 8-1 in games in which Manning did not turn the ball over via interception or fumble. The last time they lost such a game was Nov. 8, 2009 -- a 21-20 loss to the Chargers in which Manning was sacked five times. When Manning plays a clean game, the Giants win.

Cowboys play 'em close: Each of the Cowboys' past nine games has been decided by three points or less. Dallas is 5-4 in those nine games, including a 2-1 record so far this season. The last game they played that was decided by more than three points? Their Week 11 victory on Nov. 21 of last year, at home against this week's opponent, the Detroit Lions. Shaun Hill and Jon Kitna were the starting quarterbacks in that game, which the Cowboys won 35-19 in spite of being outgained 338-265. If you remember that game, you probably remember it for Bryan McCann's 97-yard punt return touchdown.

Cool note from ESPN Stats & Information: First-year San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is the last quarterback other than Peyton Manning to start a regular-season game for the Indianapolis Colts.

That will change when Kerry Collins replaces an injured Manning in the Colts' lineup for Week 1.

The first preseason game I covered as an NFL beat reporter featured Manning making his first start against the Seattle Seahawks in the Kingdome. His very first pass found Marvin Harrison for a 49-yard touchdown. Preseason games are generally without much meaning, but could there have been a more fitting beginning for Manning?

For a fuller appreciation of Manning's durability and consistency in starting 227 consecutive games, I went through Pro Football Reference counting how many quarterbacks had started for current NFC West teams since Manning made his regular-season debut. There have been 48. That figure includes 14 for the St. Louis Rams, 13 for the 49ers, 11 for the Arizona Cardinals and 10 for the Seahawks.

A few notes on the 48 players to start for current NFC West teams since 1998:

• There have been two Brocks (Berlin, Huard), two Charlies (Frye, Whitehurst), two named Chris (Chandler, Weinke), two Jeffs (Plummer, Martin), three Johns (Friesz, Navarre, Skelton), one Jon (Kitna), two Matts (Hasselbeck, Leinart), two Shauns (Hill, King), three Steves (Young, Bono, Stenstrom) and two Trents (Dilfer, Green).
• Two, Young and Warren Moon, have been enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame since Manning's streak began.
• Dilfer and Warner started for more than one current NFC West team since Manning's streak began. Warner started 57 games for Arizona and 50 for St. Louis. Dilfer started 12 for Seattle and six for San Francisco.
• Hasselbeck has the most total starts for current NFC West teams with 131, followed by Marc Bulger (95 for St. Louis), Jake Plummer (73 for the Cardinals) and Jeff Garcia (71 for the 49ers).
• Smith -- Alex, not Troy -- owns the most starts among current NFC West players with 50, all for San Francisco.
• Eight of the 48 were one-and-done as starters: Berlin, Scott Covington, Ty Detmer, Glenn Foley, Friesz, Frye, Navarre and Weinke. Nineteen have made at least 10 starts.

The NFC West will have two starters new to the division in Week 1: Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb.

The chart shows start totals by team for the 48. The NFC West changed membership with realignment in 2002. I'm going back to 1998 for the four teams currently in the division.

The best thing we can say about Week 4 of the preseason is that it's over, at least here in the NFC North. The next time one of our teams is on the field, it will be for real. In between, roster cutdowns from 8o to 53 will take place. The deadline is Saturday evening.

A quick rundown of Thursday evening's activity, which featured four fun but meaningless victories:

Chicago Bears 24, Cleveland Browns 14
Final preseason record: 2-2
Of interest: Only a handful of Bears starters played. One of them, defensive tackle Henry Melton, registered an encouraging sack of Browns quarterback Seneca Wallace in the first quarter. ... It was interesting, but probably not newsworthy, that Chris Spencer started at center alongside the rest of the Bears' first-team offensive line. Just a night off for veteran Roberto Garza. ... Backup quarterback Caleb Hanie took a step in the right direction, completing 7 of 10 passes for 83 yards and dropping a perfect pass into the far corner of the end zone for a 19-yard touchdown to receiver Johnny Knox. ... Tailback Chester Taylor started but managed 27 yards on 10 carries in what was presumably a showcase stint. But an injury to tailback Khahlil Bell might change the Bears' plans for Taylor, depending on its severity.

Detroit Lions 16, Buffalo Bills 6
Final preseason record: 4-0
Of interest: Most starters played one series. ... Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw a 39-yard pass to receiver Calvin Johnson on the game's first play, allowing Stafford to finish the preseason with this line: 25 completions, 33 attempts, 395 yards, five touchdowns and a 154.7 passer rating. ... Receiver Maurice Stovall produced a nice final argument for a roster spot, downing a punt at the Bills' 8-yard line and catching a 16-yard touchdown pass from Shaun Hill in the first quarter. ... Running back Jerome Harrison was untouched until the end of his 47-yard run in the first quarter. ... Rookie punter Ryan Donahue got the first punt of the night, for whatever that's worth, and averaged 44.0 yards on four punts. Veteran Nick Harris averaged 51.5 yards on two punts.

Green Bay Packers 20, Kansas City Chiefs 19
Final preseason record: 3-1
Of interest: Some starters, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, played one series. Rodgers' final pass of the preseason was an 8-yard touchdown to tight end Tom Crabtree. Rodgers finished the preseason with 37 completions in 47 attempts for 395 yards and four touchdowns for a 130.1 passer rating. ... Tailback Ryan Grant's 23-yard run to start the game came after strong blocks from tight end Andrew Quarless and right tackle Bryan Bulaga. ... Linebacker Vic So'Oto has put on a late charge for a roster spot. Thursday night, he had 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown. ... Not that it's a big concern, but quarterback Matt Flynn had one of the ugliest lines you'll see: two completions in 10 attempts for 12 yards and an interception, good for a 0.0 passer rating.

Minnesota Vikings 28, Houston Texans 0
Final preseason record: 2-2
Of interest: Nearly every starter sat out this game. Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder put on an unexpected display of his scrambling ability, running for 61 yards on eight carries, before leaving midway through the third quarter. Some were nice improvisational plays. A few were necessary when blitzers came free. And a few came after the point when he should have thrown the ball. All in all, however, Ponder left the Vikings with a positive impression after completing 10 of 16 passes for 83 yards, including a 5-yard touchdown to tight end Kyle Rudolph. ... With their top three running backs sidelined, the Vikings gave a workout to rookie Caleb King, whom they signed last month after no one selected him in the supplemental draft. King finished with 62 yards on 19 carries, including two touchdown runs.

Reviewing the NFC North’s first game of the 2011 preseason:

Detroit Lions 34, Cincinnati Bengals 3

Preseason record: 1-0

Of interest: The Lions’ first-team offense was done for the night before the first-team defense saw the field. Matthew Stafford's back-shoulder touchdown pass to receiver Calvin Johnson illustrated the connection they now have. Newcomer Rashied Davis made an immediate impact, recovering a fumble on the ensuing kickoff. I loved coach Jim Schwartz’s guilty expression for challenging a play that ultimately got receiver Nate Burleson credit for a 7-yard touchdown pass. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh helped force Chris Houston's interception by slamming into quarterback Andy Dalton on the Bengals' first offensive play. Suh’s personal foul on the subsequent hit wasn’t as bad as the helmet-ripping stunt he pulled against Cleveland’s Jake Delhomme last year, but it will be hard to avoid a penalty when the quarterback’s helmet comes off. The Bengals’ only scoring drive included 30 yards of Lions penalties. Anyone else get a lump in their throat when quarterback Shaun Hill pointed to the sky after his flip over the goal line? Hill’s father died this offseason after falling off a roof he and Shaun were repairing. Overall, a strong first-week performance for the Lions. No turnovers. No pressure on Stafford, whose only incompletion in seven attempts was a dropped pass. Johnson’s bruised left shoulder, suffered on the touchdown catch, is believed to be mild.

Local coverage: All but one of Stafford’s passes came from the shotgun, ensuring his protection, notes Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press. Suh didn’t speak to reporters, but of his penalty, Schwartz said: "He's trying his very best. But that's one of those situations where you have to know that the ball is gone. We kept a couple of drives alive with penalties and we have to do a better job of that, but we don't want to slow the guy down." (Via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.) Schwartz didn’t seem too upset about the penalty, writes Tom Kowalski of Mlive.com. Receiver Derrick Williams, fighting for a roster spot, dropped the first two passes thrown his way but rebounded later for a 32-yard reception, notes Tim Twentyman of the News. The only thing Stafford didn’t do was take a hit, writes Bob Wojnowski of the News. The Lions’ only downer was their running game, notes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Jerome Harrison was first off the bench to replace starter Jahvid Best but managed eight yards on eight carries.

Next: Friday at the Cleveland Browns

The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:

• Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
• Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
• Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
• Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
• Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
• Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.

Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.

"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."

Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.

Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.

Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.

We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.

As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.

As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.

Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.

In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.

The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.

Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?

Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.

How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.

Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.

The St. Louis Rams made tremendous statistical gains on defense last season. Kerry Byrne breaks down some of the differences from 2009 to 2010 in his recent piece for SI.com.

Are coach Steve Spagnuolo and the Rams headed for even better things on defense in 2011 after using their first-round pick for defensive end Robert Quinn?

"The Quinn pick told the football world that Spagnuolo intends to win in St. Louis much the way he won in New York -- with a dominating group of Defensive Hogs," Byrne writes. "The unit he'll put on the field in 2011 has the potential to be the very best in the league."

Michael from St. Louis pointed out Byrne's piece to me via Facebook and questioned whether the Rams' defense would actually join the NFL's elite this season. I think Byrne is on the right track. Spagnuolo does have the Rams' defense headed in the right direction.

I do seem question marks, however. James Hall and Fred Robbins enjoyed unusually strong seasons for their ages. Can the Rams bank on more of the same? The defense also lost safety Oshiomogho Atogwe to the Washington Redskins in free agency.

Opposing personnel matters, too. Some of the statistical gains St. Louis made from 2009 to 2010 reflected which quarterbacks the team faced.

The chart ranks the Rams' opposing quarterbacks by their passer ratings against St. Louis in the 2009 and 2010 seasons. The team's 2010 performances against Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman and Matt Cassel stand out as notable, although the Rams were 1-3 against those quarterbacks.

The Rams benefited in 2010 by removing Kurt Warner (twice), Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Brett Favre (2009 version) and even Vince Young (2009 version) from their schedule. They face Rodgers, Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Joe Flacco this coming season.

The coach of the Super Bowl champions notes the Detroit Lions are "definitely a football team that the rest of the NFL needs to be aware of."

The Lions use their top three draft picks on exciting playmakers who each add to a roster strength.

A respected statistical analyst demonstrates the team's quantum jump in 2010 and the likely impact of its draft class. Another describes the likelihood for elite play on the defensive line.

The franchise quarterback, sidelined for much of the past two years by injuries, is bigger, stronger and zipping the ball all over the field during player-organized workouts.

Upwards of 40 players show up for at least a portion of those workouts.

The HBO reality series "Hard Knocks" reportedly gives its stamp of approval by gauging the franchise's interest in participating this year.

Even rock star Bob Seger gets into the act, dedicating a song to Lions coach Jim Schwartz during a Detroit-area concert and declaring: "The Lions are going to the playoffs!"

I'm not impressed by the Lions' business decisions during the NFL lockout. But that sentiment shouldn't distract from the undeniable buzz developing around the team this spring. It's a truly modern version of hype, sparked by a four-game winning streak last season after a 2-10 start, stoked through Internet discussion and continuing through an offseason that remains incomplete for all teams.

Our job is to determine whether the Lions warrant the now-trendy notion they will contend for the playoffs in 2011. Are they an explosive offensive team with an elite defensive front? Or are they a still-rebuilding franchise, one that is merely benefiting from disproportionate name recognition thanks to years of high positioning in the draft?

My instinct is to place a cold compress or two on Lions Fever, at least in advance of a presumed free-agency period during which the Lions ostensibly must strengthen deficiencies at cornerback and outside linebacker. Moreover, their division includes the NFC's top two teams from 2010, and their 2011 schedule opens with road games in three of the first four weeks.

With that said, spring should be a time for hope, optimism and, most of all, positivity. (Even from me, especially during the lockout.) Instead of looking at Lions Fever through the prism of possible pratfalls, let's carve into stone a few goals that must be fulfilled in order for the Lions to make their first playoff appearance in 14 years.

1. Finishing must be a habit. The Lions lost 10 of their first 12 games last season, but six of those defeats came by a margin of five points or fewer. Then, suddenly, all four victories in their season-ending winning streak were decided by one score. The Lions clearly learned how to close out games in a way they couldn't during the first 12 games, whether it was linebacker DeAndre Levy's game-changing interception against the Miami Dolphins or tailback Maurice Morris' late-game runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Schwartz repeatedly has said this offseason that the successes of one season can't be expected to carry over to the next. But this is one asset the Lions must maintain in their institutional memories after a decade of fostering a losing culture.

2. Someone else in the NFC North needs to slip or stay down. Responding to our initial Lions Fever post, reemer2104 wrote: "I'd be more excited about the playoff possibility if the Lions were in the NFC West. The North could be one of -- if not the -- best divisions in football next year so even a 10-6 record could land you in third and out of a playoff spot."

I'm not suggesting that the Packers or Chicago Bears need to implode, or the Minnesota Vikings need to remain in transition, for the Lions to be a good team. But their chances of joining two other NFC North teams in the playoffs aren't great. Since the NFL implemented its eight-division format in 2002, we've seen two instances of three playoff teams from the same division: The 2007 AFC South and the 2006 NFC East.

Asked about our competitive division this winter, Schwartz again cautioned against assuming carryover.

"It's something you're used to dealing with in the NFL," he said. "[In 2010], everybody was talking about Minnesota and the Super Bowl and they were basically bringing their entire team back, and it didn't work out as well for them. ... You can never anticipate what happens.

"I think we have gained a little bit of confidence in our division. We played Chicago -- they were a final four team -- and we played them really close, less than a touchdown both times. We split with Green Bay and played a tough game at Lambeau and we haven't played a good game out there in awhile. It's business as usual in the NFL -- everybody's good, everybody's dangerous and every coach can find a way where every team can potentially beat them.''

3. Quarterback Matthew Stafford must stay on the field. Stafford arrived in Detroit with the raw skills of an elite quarterback, but to me the point is not so much whether Stafford develops into a Pro Bowler in 2011 but whether he can provide continuity at the game's most important position.

As well as Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton played last season, an emotional swing and a game-planning adjustment take place whenever any franchise quarterback is sidelined. Typically, the change isn't conducive to a playoff run.

Take last season's 12 playoff teams as an example. Stafford missed as many games last season (13) as the primary quarterbacks of those 12 teams combined. The continuity on those playoff teams was no coincidence. The only team that endured any sort of quarterback transition was the Philadelphia Eagles, who had what can reasonably be called a non-traditional backup in Michael Vick.

With continuity at quarterback from the first day of training camp, the Lions would be in position to maximize the exceptional set of skill players they have accumulated over the past three years. Their offense could be as explosive as any in the NFL.

4. Twelve teams must be wrong about defensive tackle Nick Fairley. Much of Lions Fever can be attributed to the addition of an elite interior disruptor to what was already a powerful defensive line.

At one point in the pre-draft process, Fairley was on the Carolina Panthers' list as a possible No. 1 overall pick. His skill set hasn't changed since then, but obviously there were enough concerns about his work habits and demeanor to drop him to the Lions' position at No. 13 overall.

If the Lions can coax elite production from Fairley, it's reasonable to believe their line will further elevate and protect the rest of the defense. But if the concerns of other teams prove justified, the Lions will have a defense that once again can be exploited by upper-end quarterbacks. Their schedule not only includes two matchups apiece with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, but also games against Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo and Matt Cassel.

5. The Lions must find or develop reliable starters for at least some of the five apparent openings they have on defense -- two at outside linebacker, two at cornerback and one at safety. Help could come via free agency or internally, but let's at least note that this offseason hasn't been conducive to the type of work that helps young players develop. So any hope for a big leap from, say, cornerback Alphonso Smith is reliant on that player's individual work away from coaches.

Regardless, as the charts show, the Lions finished last season with one of the league's worst nickel defenses and least impactful group of linebackers. There are a number of ways to address those issues, but future personnel improvement must be part of the solution.

6. The Lions must squeeze another year out of an offensive line that largely has gone unaddressed during this rebuilding process. Wrote Yjacket2000: "I'd still like to see the Lions spend draft picks the next two years on the O-line like they've spent the last two years on the D-line. The game of football is all about the lines, and if they improve there like they have the D-line, that, in my opinion, could be the difference between being a playoff contender and a perennial powerhouse."

Right tackle Gosder Cherilus must return from serious knee surgery, unless the Lions believe that Corey Hilliard or Jason Fox could step in for him. Left tackle Jeff Backus, who turns 34 in September, and center Dominic Raiola, 32, must maintain their current levels of play.

If anyone could reliably predict an NFL season, Las Vegas would get out of the football betting business. So let's not pretend that we can say on May 26 whether the Lions will make the playoffs. But I think we should agree that the foundation for Lions Fever is real and grounded. It's reasonable to envision a path to the playoffs. In fact, we just did it.

Last year: The Packers ultimately justified their spring status as a Super Bowl contender.

Cleaning out my notebook with the 2011 NFL draft in the books:

The Chicago Bears love their safeties. Cal's Chris Conte is the ninth they've drafted since general manager Jerry Angelo took over in 2002.

(Extra credit if you can name all nine. They're at the bottom of this post.)

The Bears have given most of the players on that list a chance to start, and there's no reason to think they have a different plan for Conte. The Bears are targeting 2010 third-rounder Major Wright as a starting safety, and it's only fair to note that his presumed 2011 partner -- veteran Chris Harris -- is entering the final year of his contract. Is Conte the long-term replacement for Harris?

Bears general manager Jerry Angelo said the Bears "spent a lot of time" scouting Conte and noted that his conversion from cornerback means he has some cover skills. Bears defensive backs coach Jon Hoke received a strong recommendation from Cal defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, and Angelo said it's "very, very hard to find free safeties." Call me crazy, but I'm thinking we'll see Conte on the field sooner rather than later.

It was nice to see Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders announce the Detroit Lions' choice of Boise State receiver Titus Young in the second round. Sanders hasn't taken much of a public profile in recent years, so it was interesting to follow his draft thoughts via Twitter (@BarrySanders). I noticed this tweet in particular:

"Very impressed with what the team has done over the past few drafts.... I might even stop by training camp to see the guys this year..."

The Lions have a distinguished history that predates that disastrous Matt Millen era that many modern-day fans associate them with. The endorsement of one of their best-ever players shouldn't be taken lightly.

Only a few minutes after drafting Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure, Lions coach Jim Schwartz was already facing the question: How will he dole out playing time between Leshoure and incumbent Jahvid Best?

Schwartz said he won't use a "Randy Ratio," the Minnesota Vikings' ill-fated attempt to ration throws to receiver Randy Moss in 2002. (Current Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan was in the same position with the Vikings at the time.) Schwartz said there was "definitely a possibility" of using both in the same backfield, but made clear that the approach could "change from week to week."

Schwartz: "It might change due to injuries and player availability. It might change based on opponent. I think there's a lot of different things that happen in our division. We see a 4-3 team like the Chicago Bears. We see a 3-4 team like the Green Bay Packers. That's a different style of running back. [You] play 3-4 teams that are two-gapping, that are holding on -- you need a big back who can run through some arm tackles. You want to get guys matched up on different teams, you need guys who can match up and beat linebackers and people that want to play man and trick coverage up for a certain player."

A few years ago, we celebrated when the Bears drafted the "pool guy." Defensive lineman Jarron Gilbert had made waves during the pre-draft process by jumping out of a pool and posting the video on YouTube. Unfortunately, Gilbert couldn't play and was waived last summer.

The Green Bay Packers drafted their own pool guy, Arizona defensive end/linebacker Ricky Elmore, but there is reason to believe he has a better future than Gilbert.

True, Elmore has posted videos of him both jumping out of a pool and into a truck on YouTube. But it's also worth noting that Elmore actually had more production last season than his more-famous teammate, defensive end/linebacker Brooks Reed.

Elmore finished last season with 11 sacks and a total of 13 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Reed had six sacks and 10 tackles behind the line. At 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds, I'm eager to see if Elmore's athleticism and college production can translate in the Packers' 3-4 scheme.

Vikings rookie quarterback Christian Ponder is expected to be the starter sooner than later, if not immediately. Assuming that's the case, it's quite possible the Vikings will look for other ways to get Joe Webb onto the field -- possibly in a way that reflects the New York Jets' use of Brad Smith. In either event, it's likely the Vikings will need a veteran backup.

Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave endorsed that suggestion, saying over the weekend that it "balances out a position." There continue to be reports, most recently from NFL.com, that the Vikings' most likely target is Washington's Donovan McNabb. If Ponder is going to take over at some point in 2011, that wouldn't make much sense to me.

But what do I know?

The Vikings might be the only NFC North team looking to add to its quarterback depth chart. Angelo strongly indicated that rookie Nathan Enderle will be the Bears' No. 3 quarterback behind Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie. The Packers seem set with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell. And Lions general manager Martin Mayhew has said he plans no changes from the trio of Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton.

South Florida safety Mistral Raymond, drafted by the Vikings with the No. 170 overall pick, has endured an incredible three years. As Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune explains, a group vowing retaliation for a shooting mis-identified Raymond's childhood home in Florida and burned it down using Molotov cocktails. No family members were killed, but one of Raymond's sisters was shot four times and airlifted to a trauma center for emergency surgery.

Then, last month, another sister was murdered. Raymond said over the weekend that he hoped his selection in the draft provided a joyful outlet for his family.

"Just having my family here with me, having them see my name come across the screen and seeing the excitement that it brought them, I think it was a relief for all of us," he said. "It helped me realize what type of position that the Lord has put me in. He has blessed me to be an outlet for my family. For them to have excitement no matter what at any given time of the day. It's just a great feeling for me personally, and I'm very grateful to be in the position I'm in."

And finally, your trivia answer: Bobby Gray (2002), Todd Johnson (2003), Chris Harris (2005), Danieal Manning (2006), Kevin Payne (2007), Craig Steltz (2008), Al Afalava (2009), Major Wright (2010), Chris Conte (2011).

The Seattle Seahawks acquired their leading sacker for 2010, Chris Clemons, from the Philadelphia Eagles one year ago Tuesday.

They acquired their backup quarterback and potential future starter, Charlie Whitehurst, from San Diego one year ago Wednesday.

By this time in 2010, the Arizona Cardinals had traded receiver Anquan Boldin, lost Antrel Rolle and Karlos Dansby in free agency, acquired safety Kerry Rhodes from the New York Jets and signed linebacker Paris Lenon, among other moves.

This March, we hear only crickets as the NFL lockout prevents teams from making roster transactions of any kind. The quiet period has shifted our football-related energies to the draft, which the league intends to operate pretty much as normal.

While draft classes can take multiple years to fully assess, free-agent crops tend to produce more immediate results, for better or worse. Let's take a look back at what NFC West teams got -- and still might get -- from their wheeling and dealing last offseason.

2010 unrestricted free agency

Best UFA signing: Fred Robbins, defensive tackle, St. Louis Rams.

Coach Steve Spagnuolo reached into his past with the New York Giants in seeking a needed upgrade to the Rams' defensive interior. Robbins outplayed the three-year deal he signed averaging $3.75 million per season.

Robbins started 16 games and collected a career-high six sacks for a defense that outperformed expectations. His presence on the line helped defensive ends Chris Long and James Hall produce at a higher level.

Worst UFA signing: David Carr, quarterback, San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers signed Carr and traded backup Shaun Hill in an effort to upgrade the position, but when they needed Carr to play, coach Mike Singletary gave him virtually no chance. Carr finished up the Carolina game before Singletary turned to third-stringer Troy Smith to start while Alex Smith recovered from injury.

It's tough to fault Carr much for what was, by all accounts, a messed-up situation. The 49ers' general manager, Scot McCloughan, left the organization shortly after the team acquired Carr. The team changed offensive coordinators early in the season. Singletary didn't know how to handle quarterbacks.

Conclusion: NFC West teams signed relatively few UFAs last offseason, in part because new rules prevented players with fewer than six accrued seasons from hitting the market. Jay Feely, Paris Lenon and Rex Hadnot signed with Arizona. Robbins and A.J. Feeley signed with the Rams. Ben Hamilton and Sean Morey signed with Seattle. Carr and William James signed with the 49ers.

2010 additions by trade


Best acquisition: Chris Clemons, defensive end, Seahawks

Seattle and Philadelphia seemed to be swapping spare parts when the Seahawks sent Darryl Tapp to the Eagles for Clemons.

Neither player had reached his potential previously.

Clemons set career highs with 11 sacks and 16 starts while filling the "Leo" position in coach Pete Carroll's defense. Tapp had three sacks and one start for the Eagles, making this deal a clear "win" for Seattle.

The Seahawks also received a fifth-round choice in return from the Eagles, but the player they selected with the choice, defensive end E.J. Wilson, was released during the season.

Worst acquisition: Stacy Andrews, guard, Seahawks.

The Seahawks could still come out OK on this one. The team had Andrews in mind as a candidate to play tackle in 2011, and that could still happen. But Andrews wasn't effective enough as a starting guard to stay in the lineup even though Seattle had serious manpower problems on its offensive line.

Perhaps Seattle can put Andrews to better use in 2011.

Conclusion: Charlie Whitehurst could have made the "worst" list for Seattle because he hardly played even though quarterback was a trouble spot, but his performance in Week 17 carried Seattle into the playoffs. He could still validate the trade. Ted Ginn Jr. was a disappointment as a wide receiver for the 49ers, but injuries and quarterback instability contributed. Ginn upgraded the return game. NFC West teams fared well in acquiring Leon Washington, Kerry Rhodes and Mark Clayton. Marshawn Lynch's memorable run against New Orleans in the playoffs made that deal look better.

2010 subtractions by trade

Best subtraction: Alex Barron, tackle, from the Rams.

St. Louis got nothing of lasting value in return for Barron, but the penalty-prone tackle was not missed. Rookie Rodger Saffold stepped in at left tackle and outperformed reasonable expectations for a rookie. Barron's time in St. Louis had run its course. The team was taking a risk with its depth by dumping Barron for linebacker Bobby Carpenter, who did not stick on the roster, but the move worked out well from the Rams' perspective.

Worst subtraction: Rob Sims, guard, from the Seahawks.

Seattle's thinking on the offensive line seemed disjointed.

Line coach Alex Gibbs retired a week before the season, changing the qualities Seattle valued in its linemen. Gibbs preferred smaller linemen, particularly guards. Sims was a solid starter, but he didn't fit the Gibbs profile. Seattle sent Sims and a seventh-round choice to Detroit for Robert Henderson, who did not earn a roster spot. The Seahawks also landed a fifth-round choice, used for strong safety Kam Chancellor.

The Seahawks used 11 starting combinations on their offensive line last season, and every one of them would have been better with Sims at left guard. Sims started 16 games for the Lions and played well, by all accounts. His presence in Seattle would have allowed the team to get more from Lynch in the ground game.

Conclusion: The trade that subtracted Boldin from the Cardinals might have qualified under different circumstances, but the time had come for Arizona to part with the exceptional wideout. The team picked up a third-round choice as partial compensation, a pick used for promising receiver Andre Roberts. The 49ers get mention here for the deal that sent Hill to Detroit and cleared the way for Carr's signing. Hill had a 10-6 record as a starter for San Francisco. Even if he wasn't the answer long term, he would have give the team better options in 2010. NFC West teams also parted with Deion Branch, Lawrence Jackson, Josh Wilson, Adam Carriker and Kentwan Balmer, among others, by trade last offseason.

Looking to the future

NFL teams remain unsettled from a roster standpoint while they wait for a labor resolution of some kind.

The Rams are the only NFC West team without serious question marks at quarterback. Lingering questions at that position will hang over the 49ers, Cardinals and Seahawks while the lockout continues.

Getting a new collective bargaining agreement in place before the draft would help those teams more than others by clearing the way for them to pursue veteran passers. Otherwise, these teams could feel extra pressure to address the position in the draft -- a difficult predicament given the hit-and-miss nature of quarterback evaluation in general.