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Last week ESPN.com's blog team examined big questions around the NFL. I had four in the AFC East that need to be answered that you can check out here.

This week we want to look at four smaller questions about the AFC East. Credit goes to NFC East blogger Dan Graziano for the idea.

Will the Jets improve safety play?

Opponents found the weakness in the New York Jets' defense in the second half of last season. The Jets were exploited time after time over the middle of the field, particularly by opposing tight ends. It was part of the reason the Jets lost their final three games.

Will New York improved its safety play in 2012? The Jets are banking on LaRon Landry to be an upgrade over Jim Leonhard. Landry is a bigger hitter but his coverage skills are questionable. Landry also has injury concerns. Eric Smith struggled last season but will get another year in the starting lineup. Neither safety is known for coverage.

The corners -- Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie -- will do their job. But the Jets could have the same issues over the middle if Smith and Landry don't step up.

Will Shawne Merriman contribute?

Where does Merriman fit with the 2012 Buffalo Bills? It depends mostly on Merriman's health. The outside linebacker is trying to return from back-to-back season-ending Achilles injuries.

Buffalo could use a rejuvenated "Lights Out" coming off the edge this year. The Bills have made it a point to improve their pass rush by investing most of their free-agent dollars on starting defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Merriman has lacked the burst he had earlier in his career. But if he can add several sacks to the pile for the Bills, that would be a huge bonus.

Can the Miami Dolphins find a second pass-rusher?

Speaking of pass-rushers, the Dolphins have one in Cameron Wake, who just received a $49 million extension. But who will take the pressure and double-teams off Wake, which was a major issue last season?

Miami's defense is strong in many areas. The team is expected to use more 4-3 looks under first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Wake will be a threat on one edge, but someone needs to step up on the opposite side.

Miami's second-leading player in sacks last year was Jason Taylor, who is retired. Maybe defensive lineman Jared Odrick has the potential to fill the void. The Dolphins also drafted Olivier Vernon in the third round to bolster the pass rush.

Will Patriots' running game produce?

The reigning AFC champion New England Patriots improved their defense. They upgraded their wide receivers and signed several offensive linemen.

But what about New England's running game? The Patriots did little at tailback. They lost leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis and signed Joseph Addai, which is a downgrade. Addai averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season.

The key will be the development of second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. New England hopes one or both players make a big jump in Year 2. The Patriots will be a pass-heavy team. There's no denying that. But the running backs have to make the most of their opportunities when quarterback Tom Brady isn't throwing the ball.

The scene at the AFC coaches' breakfast in Palm Beach, Fla., recently was fitting.

To my far left was New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan. He was surrounded by a large group of media that wanted to know how the Jets would handle Tim Tebow-mania and whether they could bounce back from a disappointing 2011.

To my immediate left was new Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. A throng of reporters wondered what the rookie head coach had in store in his first season.

On my right was future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. He continually gave non-answers about his team as reporters tried to dig up something -- anything -- about the reigning AFC champions.

In the middle of this madness was Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey. His table was relatively empty most of the hourlong breakfast, with the exception of a few passers-by and this AFC East blogger. Few in the national media cared to know what Gailey and the Bills were up to. They're a small-market team that finished 6-10 last season and hasn't been to the playoffs in 13 years.

But by this time next year, people will be talking about Buffalo. The Bills are my sleeper pick in 2012. Here are five reasons why Buffalo will get over the hump and finish with a winning record:

Reason No. 1: Bills made right moves in free agency

Analysis: I will give myself a pat on the back. I was one of the first to note Buffalo's interest in two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams. Despite my prediction, I did not think Buffalo would be able to land the top defensive free agent on the market. But the Bills put on the full-court press and gave Williams 100 million reasons to join the Bills. Buffalo gained an elite pass-rusher and its first game-changer on defense. The Bills didn't stop there. They continued to improve their anemic pass-rush by signing former Patriots defensive end Mark Anderson, who recorded 10 sacks last year. Williams, Anderson and defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus make up one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. It's a group that can stop the run and get push up the middle while attacking the edges and pressuring the quarterback. Buffalo's talented front four will be a problem for a lot of teams next season. The Bills also retained their own key free agents. Buffalo re-signed No. 1 receiver Steve Johnson at an affordable rate they were comfortable with, as well as starting tight end Scott Chandler. There are still a few more holes Buffalo would like to fill. But the team is one of the biggest winners in free agency.

Reason No. 2: Double trouble at running back

Analysis: When they are healthy, there may not be a more dynamic running back duo in the NFL than Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. These two will be headaches for opposing defenses once Buffalo figures out how to blend both into the offense simultaneously. Jackson and Spiller could complement each other well. Buffalo's coaching staff admittedly did a poor job of balancing the two tailbacks last season. Jackson received a bulk of the carries when healthy, and Spiller finally showed what he could do at the end of the year once Jackson was injured. Now, both are hungry and want the football. Gailey called it "a great problem to have." Jackson is 31 and coming off a season-ending leg injury. That should open the door for Spiller to get more carries. Will it be a 50-50 split? Probably not. But the Buffalo offense will be dangerous if it can use Spiller and Jackson just enough to keep each fresh and productive the entire season.

Reason No. 3: AFC East is weakening

Analysis: A case can be made that the AFC East became a weaker division this offseason. The division wasn't very strong to begin with. Only the Patriots finished with a winning record in 2011. But the 6-10 Dolphins gutted their roster, getting rid of top players such as Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall and leading tackler and starting safety Yeremiah Bell. Miami also failed to land a franchise quarterback and settled on 34-year-old David Garrard as the potential starter next season. It's early, but it's hard to imagine Miami's finishing with a better record than last season. Meanwhile, the Jets are an aging team with chemistry issues. New York gave embattled quarterback Mark Sanchez a three-year contract extension and traded for popular backup Tebow, setting up a potentially explosive situation. The Jets will be on a year-long implosion watch, and their arrow could be trending downward after last year's mediocre 8-8 season. The Jets, Dolphins and Bills are all chasing the Patriots, who are clearly the favorites in the division. But the Bills, who split with New England last season, did a solid job to make up some ground.

Reason No. 4: Players are getting healthy

Analysis: I usually try to avoid the injury excuse, because every team has them. But I think it legitimately applies to the Bills. Buffalo suffered key injures last year at running back (Jackson), defensive tackle (Kyle Williams), linebacker (Shawne Merriman), offensive line (Eric Wood), receiver (Donald Jones) and even kicker (Rian Lindell), just to name a few. Bills starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick also played much of the season with a painful rib injury. By the second half of the year, the Bills didn't have anywhere near the same depth they had during their 4-1 start. Most of these players are expected to be back and healthy in 2012. Merriman is perhaps the biggest question mark after his second season-ending Achilles injury. But chances are slim that Buffalo will be hit this hard with injuries again. Health will be key for Buffalo to maintain a successful run over 16 games.

Reason No. 5: Bills have a top-10 pick

Analysis: The Bills have had a very productive offseason, but they aren't done yet. They still have a top-10 pick in this month's NFL draft. This is a great opportunity for Buffalo to plug more holes on the roster. The Bills could use a starting-caliber left tackle, another threat at receiver, a cover corner and depth at linebacker. The Bills also have more than $9 million in cap room to spend. Don't rule out late signings in free agency. After years of not spending to the cap, Buffalo tabbed 2012 as the year to make a push.

All of these reasons make the Bills my ideal sleeper pick for next season. Don't forget that you heard it here first.

The Buffalo Bills made the biggest splash so far in free agency by signing former Houston Texans defensive end Mario Williams to a six-year, $100 million contract. Williams is a game-changer who will greatly improve Buffalo’s anemic pass rush.

Here are four questions and answers on the signing:

1. Does this make Buffalo a contender?

Too early to say. Free agency just started and the draft is next month. A lot of teams will get better and some will get worse by the end of April. Williams is a big difference-maker. But right now, the New England Patriots are still my early pick to win the AFC East. The Williams signing makes perfect sense, but the Bills still have work to do at left tackle, receiver, cornerback and overall depth. Second place in the AFC East is wide open. With the way things are going with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins -- unless Peyton Manning saves them -- the Bills are making a strong push to end their 13-year playoff drought. But let's see what happens the rest of this offseason.

2. How good is the defense with Williams?

Buffalo's defense was ranked No. 26 last year. So there is a long way to elite status. But Williams solves two of Buffalo's biggest defensive issues: He improves the pass rush and sets the edge against the run. I don't know who Buffalo's other defensive end will be. But with Williams, Marcell Dareus and a healthy Kyle Williams, it's safe to say the Bills will have one of the league's more dominant defensive lines. Buffalo will not be pushed around this season, and I like the switch to a 4-3 defense. If the Bills make additional improvements at linebacker and corner and everyone stays healthy, they have the potential to be a top-10 or top-12 defense next season.

3. Was $100 million too much?

This question will linger. But here is the blunt truth: Buffalo had no choice. There is a reason it took three days of courting and convincing. The Bills are not a winning franchise and had to talk with their checkbook. The Bills were willing to pay more to get Williams, because if they didn't or all things were equal, Williams probably would have joined another team. The Bills proved that money still talks. Did they overpay? It depends on how well Williams performs the next several years. But Buffalo's goal was to get the best pass-rusher on the market and the team accomplished that goal.

4. How does this impact the draft?

I don't think it impacts Buffalo's draft plans all that much. The Bills can still go in a variety of ways, and adding to the front seven on defense is still a possibility. For example, Williams is going to get a lot of double-teams. Therefore, the Bills will need another threat opposite Williams. Can Buffalo rely on Shawne Merriman, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last year? Should the Bills draft a player such as South Carolina's Melvin Ingram or Courtney Upshaw from Alabama at No. 10? The Bills can go in a lot of different ways to either help build the offense with early picks or build around Williams.

The championship window has closed in San Diego.

Once considered the best roster in the league, the San Diego Chargers have seen impressive depth dwindle, they’ve gotten old in key spots and they have lacked toughness. The result has been a steady decline in the last two years.

“They are one of the most confusing teams I’ve ever seen,” Gary Horton of Scouts Inc. said. “You expect so much from them and then they don’t deliver … They should be so much better, but then you watch them and they can’t do it. I just don’t get them.”

The Chargers -- widely considered as a Super Bowl contender going into this season -- stagger into a Monday night game at Jacksonville on a six-game losing skid. It is the Chargers’ longest such streak in 10 years.

After starting 4-1 and looking like a playoff team, San Diego is now 4-7 and apparently on course to miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season. After owning the AFC West for four years, the Chargers are 13-14 since the start of the 2010 season.

When a rift developed between general manager A.J. Smith and coach Marty Schottenheimer after the Chargers went 14-2 in 2006, Smith hired Norv Turner to take a stacked roster to the Super Bowl. That probably won’t happen. Turner, who is 45-30 as Chargers coach, is expected to be fired unless the Chargers, who are three games behind in both the AFC West and the AFC wild-card races with five games to go, make a miraculous playoff run. Smith's job could also be in danger, particularly if San Diego ownership wants to break the bank and make a run at someone like Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden. There have also been indications that the team is open to continuing with Smith as the top football decision-maker.

However, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Saturday that the team may be leaning toward firing Smith.

The Chargers have long been lauded for their roster of big-name talent. In the past decade, they drafted potential Hall of Famers in LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers and signed potential Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates. They also drafted Shawne Merriman, who had a strong first three years as a premier pass-rusher before disappearing because of injuries.

All the Chargers have remaining from that group is Rivers, who turns 30 this month, and Gates, who is 31 and who has been dealing with serious foot injuries for three years.

Whoever coaches the Chargers in 2012 – Cowher and Jeff Fisher are already being mentioned as potential candidates – will have some work to do. Some solid core players remain, starting with Rivers, who is struggling through his worst NFL season. Still, the Chargers probably will have to be rebuilt in several areas.

“They aren’t as deep as we always thought they were,” Horton said. “They have problems on the offensive line, their receivers aren’t that strong and the defense doesn’t pass rush anymore."

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. thinks San Diego has some core players -- but not a ton of them, and some of them have question marks. Williamson says Rivers, receiver Vincent Jackson, Gates, guard Kris Dielman, defensive tackle Antonio Garay, linebacker Shaun Phillips, cornerback Quentin Jammer and safety Eric Weddle are all players who can help the team in the future. Williamson also thinks the team’s last two first-round picks, running back Ryan Mathews and defensive lineman Corey Liuget, have a chance to be core players.

Jackson, who has been inconsistent this year, is a free agent after the season. The Chargers may place the franchise tag on him. Rivers, Gates, Dielman (out for the season with a concussion), Garay, Phillips and Jammer will be 30 or older next season. Still, Williamson believes a coaching change could help provide a spark.

“It’s not all Norv’s fault, but he is not maximizing his team’s potential, which is obviously a key component to his job,” Williamson said.

Horton said he believes that if the Chargers do make a coaching change, they need to bring in a taskmaster. There have been whispers among scouts the past couple of years that the Chargers get outmuscled too often. There have been times when San Diego has been manhandled on both lines, including a few instances against the more physical Raiders.

“I like Norv, but I get the feeling they are not playing hard for him,” Horton said. “They always look soft to me, and they often don’t play with a sense of urgency.”

Still, the Chargers have not been blown out this season and they could have won all seven of their losses; indeed, they have made crucial fourth-quarter (or overtime) mistakes in each of their losses. Turner said this week that effort is not a problem.

“Go through the tapes and there’s great effort,” Turner said. “These guys play hard.”

The players I have talked to in San Diego’s locker room know that change is likely to come, and they say they feel bad that Turner is probably going to be the person to pay for the team’s failures. But it is clear that the Chargers’ time as elite playoff contenders is over. If they are going to re-open their Super Bowl window, it will probably be with new leadership.

Buffalo Bills outside linebacker and former Pro Bowler Shawne Merriman wasted no time going under the knife.

Just one day after going on injured reserve, Merriman had surgery on his ailing Achilles and will begin rehab to get back on the field in 2012. Merriman tweeted Wednesday evening that the surgery was a success.

"Surgery went extremely well so you guys prayers were answered," Merriman tweeted.

Merriman has had knee and Achilles issues the past several seasons. He was once a dominant force in the NFL, registering 39.5 sacks from 2005-2007. But Merriman lacks the explosiveness he once had and has recorded only five sacks the past four seasons.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Miami Dolphins' poise: The Dolphins (0-6) are setting records for being inept. They are the first team to blow a 15-point lead in the final three minutes since the NFL-AFL merger, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Once Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow got hot, Miami completely unraveled on offense, defense and special teams. The Dolphins' defense allowed two late touchdown drives to Tebow, the special teams failed to recover an onside kick, and Miami quarterback Matt Moore's sack and fumble led to Denver's game-winning field goal. It was a teamwide collapse.

2. Tony Sparano, Miami head coach: The Dolphins' coach is one of the AFC East leaders in the "falling" category this season. He dropped his ninth straight game as head coach. The Dolphins also are an astounding 1-12 in Sparano's last 13 home games. It's just a matter of time before Miami makes a coaching change. It could happen next week or at the end of the season. But Miami can't continue down this path beyond the 2011 season.

3. New York Jets in the first half: This may sound like nitpicking -- New York eventually came back to beat the Chargers -- but the Jets have started slow for the past month. New York trailed at halftime in three of its past four games. The Jets led at halftime only against the winless Dolphins, 14-6, in that span. New York overcame a 21-10 deficit last week against the Chargers. The Jets are 4-3 and cannot continue to rely on second-half rallies if they want to make the playoffs.

RISING

1. Shonn Greene, Jets tailback: The AFC East blog has been critical of Greene's lack of production all season. So it's fair to give Greene credit when he has a great game. Green rushed for a season-high 112 yards on 20 carries. He ran strong between the tackles against the Chargers and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. The Jets can win a lot of games if Greene runs this way more consistently. This is the first 100-yard game for Greene in 2011.

2. Plaxico Burress, Jets receiver: Burress had the most impressive four-catch, 25-yard performance a receiver can have. Burress was unstoppable in the red zone against San Diego. He scored all three of New York's touchdowns to lead the Jets to a 27-21 win. The Jets invested $3 million into Burress for games like this. He's a big body who can make quarterback Mark Sanchez's job a lot easier when the offense is clicking.

3. Rest for Patriots and Bills: The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots should benefit from the bye week. Both teams had injuries and gave key players two weeks to heal. For the Patriots, Pro Bowl linebacker Jerod Mayo is improving and has a chance to return against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo is expected to get back starting linebacker Chris Kelsay. Linebacker Shawne Merriman (Achilles) also said last week he expects to play against Washington, but nothing has been made official by the Bills.

As you get ready for the New York Giants' game today against the Buffalo Bills in New Jersey, here's one reason for Giants fans to feel good and one reason for concern:

Feeling good: If the Giants are going to get their running game going at some point, the Bills offer a good opportunity to do so. Ranked 29th in the NFL against the run, the Buffalo defense today is also without Shawne Merriman, which leaves them light at linebacker and should allow the Giants to bounce Ahmad Bradshaw outside as well as run him between the tackles. After Bradshaw complained last week about the job the line is doing blocking for him, expect the Giants to focus on getting him going against a soft Buffalo run defense.

Cause for concern: The key for the Giants' defense is its ability to sack the quarterback, but no team in the league has yielded fewer sacks than have the Bills (4). Ryan Fitzpatrick gets rid of the ball very quickly, and the line has done a good job of protecting him, and without Justin Tuck at defensive end, the Giants will have their work cut out for them if they want to harass Fitzpatrick the way they've bothered so many other opposing quarterbacks this year. Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul are both excellent, but neither plays the run as well as Tuck does, and with Tuck out they may need to be paying extra attention to Buffalo's outstanding running back, Fred Jackson.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 1:

Can Raiders keep streak alive? The Raiders were the kings of intra-division games last season when they went 6-0 in the AFC West. The problem was, Oakland went 2-8 outside of the division and finished in third place in the AFC West. Still, the Raiders open Monday night’s game at Denver -- the back end of an ESPN "Monday Night Foobtall" doubleheader -- with a seven-game divisional winning streak, dating to a 2009 win at Denver. It is the longest current division winning streak in the NFL.

McNabb likes to bombs away against Chargers: In 2009, when new Minnesota quarterback Donovon McNabb last faced San Diego as a member of the Eagles, he threw 55 passes. In his previous meeting against San Diego, in 2005, McNabb unleashed 54 passes. It was his highest pass total of both seasons. It's doubtful McNabb, 34, will throw that many passes in his first game as a Viking. But the Chargers will be prepared for him to throw at will.

59-14 not on John Fox: A lot has been made this week of Oakland’s 59-14 win at Denver last year. Forty-five point road wins aren’t every-season occurrences. New Denver coach John Fox has dealt with a lot of questions about it, but, ironically, that day was a good day for Fox in a mostly miserable 2010. On Oct. 24, Fox’s Carolina Panthers beat San Francisco for their first win of the season after five straight losses. The Panthers won one more game.

Keep an eye on Merriman: There is excitement in Buffalo about former San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman. He's healthy and has looked good this summer. The Bills are hoping Merriman, 27, will resemble the player who had a total of 39.5 sacks in his first three NFL seasons and not the player who had four sacks in his past three season combined. Regardless of his past three years, which were marred by major injuries, the Chiefs will be aware of Merriman. They’ve seen him at his best. Merriman has six sacks in nine career games against the Chiefs. He had three sacks in a game against the Chiefs in 2007 and two sacks in a game against the Chiefs during his rookie season.

Bad Raiders’ streaks: A Raiders win wouldn’t just extend their division winning streak, it would end some nasty streaks as well. The Raiders haven’t won in Week 1 since 2002 against Seattle. It's the longest current Week 1 losing skid in the NFL. The Raiders also have lost 11 straight prime-time games.

PITTSFORD, N.Y. -- Buffalo Bills inside linebacker Nick Barnett knew bad news was coming this summer, and he still couldn’t fully accept it. Despite his eight seasons with Green Bay, the speculation was that the Packers had to trade or release him this offseason. Barnett had been placed on injured reserve in both the 2008 and 2010 seasons, and his heir apparent, Desmond Bishop, already was in place. It was a no-brainer move to most observers, even though Barnett was still thinking about the possibility of helping the Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions. “If you read my tweets,” he said, “that’s all I kept talking about.”

These days Barnett is talking about something different -- how he can help the Bills transform one of the league’s worst defenses into a sturdy, reliable unit. No team in the NFL was worse against the run in 2010 (Buffalo allowed 169.6 yards per game), and that was one key reason the team signed Barnett so quickly after the Packers released him in late July. At 30, he still has the quickness and playmaking ability that allowed him to amass 787 tackles, 15.5 sacks and nine interceptions during his Green Bay career. He’s also aware that his energy and leadership will be invaluable to a team that lost its top tackler, Paul Posluszny, in free agency.

Bills assistant head coach and linebackers coach Dave Wannstedt said Barnett already is the team’s best linebacker. Head coach Chan Gailey has raved about his new player’s approach. “He brings experience and speed to this defense,” Gailey said. “He’s a guy who always plays fast.” Added Barnett: “I’m just trying to be myself. I haven’t played since Week 4 [a dislocated wrist ended his season] so I’m still finding my way. But the biggest thing I wanted to bring to this team was an attitude. I want to help the younger guys relax and have fun out there because that’s what I do.”

Though Barnett needed some time to accept his release from the Packers -- “I’ve never been fired from anything before,” he said -- he quickly sensed that Buffalo was the right place for him. He liked the team atmosphere, the family environment and the die-hard fans who are the city’s trademark. In many ways, Barnett felt like he was going to a place quite similar to Green Bay. “The talent level is there,” Barnett said. “But like everything, it’s going to come down to communication and attitude. If we do those things, we’ll be productive.”

THREE HOT ISSUES

1. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick be better? Yes. Fitzpatrick was a decent quarterback in 2010 -- 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions -- especially considering that he was basically thrown into the job after the Bills gave up on former starter Trent Edwards. Fitzpatrick also has far more advantages coming into this season, despite not having an entire offseason to work with coaches. The major areas that he needs to improve? Accuracy and consistency. What he doesn’t have to worry about any longer? Proving to his teammates that he can lead this team and knowing whether the job is his alone. “Last season was interesting, but my whole career has been about being ready to show what you can do when the opportunity comes,” said Fitzpatrick, who spent his first five NFL seasons as a backup before getting his shot as a full-time starter three games into 2010. “One of the good things we have as an offense is that we have a lot of guys who’ve spent an entire season playing together and getting familiar with each other. When you look at the offenses in New England and Indianapolis, that continuity is what makes them so successful, and now we’re one step closer to that.”

2. Can Shawne Merriman return to an elite level? As long as he’s healthy. Right now the three-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker thinks that the strained Achilles that limited him to only three games last season won’t be an issue. The bigger challenge for him is finding a comfort level after registering only four sacks over the past three seasons. The Bills are banking on his getting up to speed in a hurry. For a team that tied for 27^th in the NFL in sacks last season (with 27), having a rejuvenated Merriman harassing opposing quarterbacks would be a much-needed blessing. “I don’t feel like I need to respond to people who’ve been counting me out over the last couple years because all you have to do is watch me practice,” said Merriman, who had 43.5 sacks in his first 60 career games. “It’s definitely been hard [not playing] but I also feel like I’ve done everything I’ve needed to do to get back. I can see good things happening this season.”

3. What role will C.J. Spiller play in the offense? One of the more disappointing aspects of the Bills' offense in 2010 was the lack of productivity from Spiller. Drafted ninth overall in last year’s draft, he was supposed to bring breathtaking speed and elusiveness to the Bills. Instead, Spiller wound up with only 283 rushing yards and 24 receptions in his rookie season. Those numbers should increase now that Buffalo has a less crowded backfield (the team traded Marshawn Lynch to Seattle midway through last season) and a greater sense of urgency about involving Spiller. “We need to get him more touches,” Gailey said. “We need to find more ways to get him in space so he can use that speed. He’s already grown as a runner because he’s better at running inside, and he’s shown more patience. The one thing I’d really like to see him improve on now is ball security. He had some problems with fumbles last year [Spiller had five fumbles and lost three], and we can’t have that.”

WELCOME SIGHT

Roscoe Parrish: The Bills' offensive players know that Parrish has developed into a valuable receiver after being used mainly as a returner early in his career. They realize it even more now that he’s healthy. After missing the last eight games of 2010 with a broken wrist, Parrish has been impressing teammates with his trademark speed and quickness. The explosiveness he brings to the offense after sitting out half a year also hasn’t gone unnoticed. “Now that he’s back, you remember how much he means to this offense,” Fitzpatrick said. “He really adds another dimension.”

PLAYER TO WATCH

Brad Smith: Don’t be surprised if Smith becomes a more dangerous playmaker in the Bills’ offense. He made his name as a kick returner/wide receiver/Wildcat quarterback with the New York Jets, and rule changes should allow him to increase his playing time in Buffalo. The NFL agreed to abolish the rule requiring teams to determine a third quarterback on game-day rosters -- that player could participate only in emergency situations, and his presence would prevent the team from using any other quarterback during a game. Now a player like Smith can be used far more often in Wildcat situations. Even if Smith appears as a quarterback in three or four plays a game, his involvement won’t limit his coaches’ options. “We were going to use him in a similar role anyway, but that rule really helps,” said Gailey, who has gained a reputation for finding creative roles for versatile players. “Now you don’t have to wonder about whether he needs to be listed as a third quarterback who can only play in emergency situations or if he can be used as a Wildcat quarterback whenever we like. It’s going to make a big difference.”

OBSERVATION DECK

• [+] Enlarge
  Rick Stewart/Getty ImagesFirst round draft pick Marcell Dareus has impressed his coaches in training camp.
  Rookie defensive end Marcell Dareus hasn’t needed much time to make a strong impression on his coaches. Wannstedt called him a “special kid with the right approach to the game,” and Gailey thinks it shouldn’t take long for Dareus to prove why he was worthy of the third overall pick in this year’s draft. “He’s a big, physical guy and he’s got an edge to him,” Gailey said of Dareus, who's 6-3 and weighs 323. “You have to like that about him.”

• Even though the Bills lost their second-best tackler from last season -- strong safety Donte Whitner -- the loss may not be as troubling as it looks. Though he was a strong presence in run support, the team thinks strong safety George Wilson can help the Bills more in the playmaking department. When Whitner was injured two years ago, the tandem of Wilson and Jairus Byrd gave the secondary a bigger boost with their pass defense skills.

• The emphasis on stopping the run is going to put more pressure on the Bills cornerbacks this season. Gailey believes he has the personnel to handle the increased responsibility, and Terrence McGee is essential to this approach. He has spent more time covering slot receivers in training camp, which will allow Leodis McKelvin and Drayton Florence to handle outside receivers when the defense faces three-receiver looks.

• Wide receiver Donald Jones is another player worth watching. When asked about teammates who have caught his eye early in training camp, Fitzpatrick said Jones had elevated his game in his second season. An undrafted rookie in 2010, Jones was a nice surprise in camp and finished with 18 receptions. This year he’s using his size and strength to make himself a tough receiver to handle at the line of scrimmage.

• The Bills recognize that their biggest challenge this season will be learning how to change expectations. Gailey has talked about the difference between hoping to win and expecting to win, and his players believe they can make great strides. Fitzpatrick agreed that last season, too many players were worried about losing their jobs as the team transitioned into Gailey’s tenure. This year, there is far more comfort and a sense of purpose on a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 1999. “We definitely need to take the approach that we deserve to win,” Fitzpatrick said. “And we have a chip on our shoulders. We hear all the people talking about how tough the AFC East is, and nobody mentions our name. That can be fuel for our fire, and we have to believe we can surprise people.”

Observations from the Bills’ 10-3 preseason loss to the Bears:

Sacks!: The Bears might have the worst offensive line in football, but Buffalo deserves a lot of credit for sacking Chicago quarterbacks a whopping nine times. Shawne Merriman stood out in this capacity. If he is now close to the player he was just a few years ago in San Diego, that will be exactly what the Bills need so badly at outside linebacker. Merriman abused J'Marcus Webb -- who has no business starting at left tackle -- with regularity. Merriman won his one-on-one matchup with power, quickness and technique, which is very encouraging. Chicago was wise to get Jay Cutler out of the game even before the first quarter wrapped up. Cutler’s backup, Caleb Hanie, also could have done a better job of getting the ball out quicker.

Marcell Dareus: The rookie played terrifically in his debut for the Bills. I wrote last week what Dareus can do for this team from a schematic standpoint. We saw much of that against the Bears. He was particularly effective lined up at defensive tackle in the Bills’ four-man front, abusing Chicago’s right guards. Time and continuity should help the Bears’ line, but clearly Dareus brings a ton to the table. Dareus runs and changes directions extremely well for such a big man.

Bills OL needs work: As awful as the Bears’ offensive line looked in Week 1 of the preseason, Buffalo’s wasn’t all that spectacular either, particularly on the interior. Henry Melton is a real up-and-comer as Chicago’s 3 technique, and his quick get-off and penetration skills gave the Bills’ guards a tough time on numerous occasions. Running against the Bears should be a very difficult chore once again this season. Melton might make it tough on many guards this season.

…as does the run defense: While Chicago could not protect its passer, the Bears did open holes in the run game. Marion Barber was quick to get downhill. He was decisive and showed a better burst than I remember from his final days in Dallas. The Bills did not handle his physicality very well and too often failed to get him on the ground when given ample opportunity. Kahlil Bell, a similar type power runner, also gave Buffalo’s depth players a hard time.

Wideouts minus Evans: Lee Evans is now in Baltimore, so there is now a golden opportunity for one or several of the Bills’ young receivers to step up. While the quarterback ball placement didn’t help the cause early, no one out of this stable really stepped up against the Bears. It also should be noted that C.J. Spiller spent some time in the slot as well. His role needs to increase.

Brad Smith: We got a glimpse why the Bills signed Smith from the divisional rival Jets. They plan on using him in a wide variety of ways. He lined up as a Wildcat quarterback as a run threat, which could be a regular thing for the Bills on third-and-short situations. We already know that he is an upper-echelon kickoff returner and can be a factor on the edge or slot as a wideout, where he got some work in this game as well. He also threw the ball. Chan Gailey has a very good history of maximizing the talents of players similar to Smith.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com. Follow Matt Williamson on Twitter @WilliamsonNFL.

Reviewing Saturday's preseason action at Soldier Field:


Chicago Bears 10, Buffalo Bills 3

Preseason record: 1-0

Of interest: None of the anticipated drama for this game played out. Tailback Matt Forte played despite the lack of a contract extension, although it's worth noting he played one series and didn't get a carry. (He did make one catch.) Marion Barber ended up rushing for 45 yards on seven carries, and Chester Taylor had three yards on three carries. ... And by all accounts, the playing surface at Soldier Field held up despite some visible seams between the sod. The only issue: Longtime Chicago-area sportscaster Peggy Kusinski said she was told by security officials that no cell phone photos of the field were allowed. ... The first-team offensive line played the entire first half but gave up four sacks, including three to Bills linebacker Shawne Merriman, who gave left tackle J'Marcus Webb fits. I thought two of Merriman's sacks, against backup quarterback Caleb Hanie, came in part because Hanie held the ball. ... Defensive tackle Henry Melton flashed in the first quarter, getting into the backfield on three early plays. That's an encouraging sign. ... The Bears kicked off twice from the 30-yard line before, saying the NFL's new rule for kickoffs at the 35-yard line was optional. NFL officiating czar Carl Johnson was forced to call Soldier Field to tell them otherwise. Interesting but ultimately a meaningless attempt by the Bears. ... Finally, demoted receiver Johnny Knox made an a strong impression on special teams, reminding everyone how fast he is during a 70-yard kickoff return. He also returned two punts, but that job will go to Devin Hester in the regular season.

Local coverage: No one criticized the field, reports Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune. But quarterback Jay Cutler did say: "I don't know. It is what it is. I don't think it is going to change, so we just have to play on it." ... Knox, via Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times: "I know what I need to do -- just handle my business on the field and that's what I came to do. I'm just trying to make the best of it and make plays when I can." ... The Bears' offensive line needs more time together, writes Dan Pompei of the Tribune. ... New defensive lineman Amobi Okoye had two sacks, notes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.

Next: Aug. 22 at New York Giants (ESPN)

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills own the first two picks of the second round Friday night.

Let's take a look at five possibilities for each.

No. 33 New England Patriots

1. Trade: The Patriots' track record and added time to work the phones suggests they'll deal this pick for additional assets. Who knows? Maybe they collect a third 2012 first-round draft choice.
2. Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers: Always on the lookout for value, Bill Belichick might be intrigued enough with Bowers to stash him on injured reserve for a year. Bowers once was considered a legitimate candidate to be the first pick overall.
3. Pittsburgh defensive end Jabaal Sheard: The Patriots need to improve their pass rush and Sheard could be in their crosshairs. ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss predicts this should be the pick.
4. UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers: He's third on ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper's list of best-available players behind Bowers and Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea. Ayers is a versatile defender who can rush the passer and handle coverage.
5. A running back: Only one has been drafted. The New Orleans Saints traded into the Patriots' spot to grab Alabama's Mark Ingram at No. 28. Scouts Inc. considers Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams the fifth-best player still on the board. Kiper has Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure seventh.

No. 34 Buffalo Bills

1. Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph: The Bills are woefully inadequate at tight end. They haven't drafted one earlier than the third round since Lonnie Johnson in 1994. Head coach Chan Gailey could use a skilled tight end to diversify his offense and Rudolph is considered this year's best.
2. Texas cornerback Aaron Williams: In a division that has Tom Brady, Brandon Marshall and a Jets squad that hopes to re-sign Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards, the Bills should solidify their coverage. Williams is considered by Kiper and Scouts Inc. to be the best defensive back on the board.
3. Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett: He's considered the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft. If the Bills can rationalize Mallett's off-field issues, they could have their quarterback of the future.
4. Illinois inside linebacker Martez Wilson: The Bills need help here, and Wilson is considered the best in this -- albeit weak -- draft class. Kiper predicts the Bills will make this pick.
5. UCLA outside linebacker Akeem Ayers: The Bills have invested serious money in outside linebackers already. They gave Chris Kelsay a handsome new contract last season and extended Shawne Merriman in the offseason. They'd also love to get a return out of Aaron Maybin. But Ayers might be too talented to pass up.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Buffalo Bills general manager Buddy Nix and vice president of college scouting Tom Modrak held a draft media luncheon Tuesday at the team's facility.

Some of the highlights:

Nix reiterated the Bills don't want to trade out of the No. 3 pick.

"I wouldn't rule out anything, but there'll be a guy there we really want, I think," Nix said. "Probably wouldn't move down. It would have to be a rare situation, I think."

The Bills love Auburn quarterback Cam Newton and Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

One of them should still be on the board when the Bills pick. Nix and head coach Chan Gailey have praised Newton for the past couple months, but the front office talked up Gabbert a little Tuesday.

Nix said Gabbert didn't shoot up the Bills' draft board after the season -- as he did in many mocks -- because Modrak had Gabbert rated highly since a few games into last season.

"His stock hasn't risen with us," Nix said. "It's always been high."

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett still is on their draft board.

The Bills own the 34th pick, territory where Mallett could be taken. They claimed they aren't (totally) scared off by Mallett's vague off-field concerns.

"There are issues that we've talked about," Modrak said. "They're there. We interviewed him at the combine. We've done our due diligence. We know [the issues] are there. Are they a deal-breaker? Not necessarily. It's not cut and dry, where 'You're outta here.' But it is a part that we've talked about.

"We'll see how we feel about it. We're reasonably OK with it, but that's as vague as I can think of. ... But I don't know if it's a game-changer."

Said Nix: "We think we know some people there [at Arkansas], like everywhere else when you've done it this long. We think we got pretty good information on him."

The Bills didn't bring Mallett to One Bills Drive for a visit like they did Newton, Gabbert and Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder.

Nix offered another version of his quote about drafting a quarterback when you already have one.

The Bills consider quarterback a priority even with incumbent starter Ryan Fitzpatrick on the roster. Nix was in the San Diego Chargers front office when they acquired Philip Rivers even though they already had Drew Brees.

"We think we're in a good position," Nix said. "Actually, as hard as it is to say that when you got other needs, it's probably a perfect time to take a guy.

"I go back to San Diego, and I have to draw from that. But if you can do it that way, with the way we did it, with Drew Brees ... That makes it easier if you got Drew Brees, now. But if you can take a guy and sit him a year or two until he's hungry and knowledgeable and ready to play, the success rate is going to be pretty high."

Nix indicated stopping the run was more important than rushing the passer.

They need help in both areas. Only three teams recorded fewer sacks than the Bills last year, but they also ranked dead last in run defense.

"The highest-paid guys are the ones that rush the passer," Nix said. "But with us, it's more important probably to stop the run. I don't think you're going to get where you want to be unless you stop the run. Then you rush the passer."

Nix dismissed the notion the Bills won't draft an outside linebacker at No. 3 because of money.

The Bills already have invested a lot of dollars in the position, giving Chris Kelsay a new deal last season, Shawne Merriman an extension and, of course, Aaron Maybin his lucrative rookie contract.

Nix said there was "no merit" to speculating they would steer away from using a premium pick on another outside linebacker. Texas A&M's Von Miller perhaps?

"You can't have too many good players," Nix said. "If you go into a year -- and I've had this happen a lot of times -- where you think 'This is a strong position. We don't need anybody here.' And you wind up with two or three injuries and you're always glad you got the guy."

Pro Bowl defensive lineman Kyle Williams' position isn't set.

I asked Nix and Modrak where they envision Williams and how it will affect what other D-line positions to focus on in the draft. The answer was ambiguous.

"No matter how many [defensive linemen] we get, Kyle will find a place," Nix said. "He's a good football player for us, and he was every Sunday. He'll be in the 3-technique. He'll be shaded on the nose sometimes. He'll be in there on nickel. He won't get out much.

"If the best player was a defensive end or a guy that could play first or second down at defensive end and then you move him inside on nickel on third down, he'd be one and Kyle would be the other."

Trent Dilfer started laughing as soon as he heard Chris Mortensen relay the comment from Buffalo Bills head coach Chan Gailey.

While breaking down the Bills for ESPN's "On the Clock" series, Mortensen said Gailey told him, "I think we can win a championship with Ryan Fitzpatrick."

Dilfer couldn't stifle his amusement.

"All right, look ... No," Dilfer said, shifting in his seat and trying to comprehend the statement. "If you're going to win a Super Bowl with Ryan Fitzpatrick, you better have the Baltimore Ravens' defense that I played with. That's the only formula to win a Super Bowl without a dynamic, playmaking quarterback."

Dilfer said Fitzpatrick could be Buffalo's answer at quarterback "for a year or two, yes, but that's about it." Dilfer insisted the Bills must draft Auburn quarterback Cam Newton if the Heisman Trophy winner still is on the board at No. 3.

"His unique skill set is going to fit Buffalo," Dilfer said. "He spins the ball at an incredibly high rate. He can knife it through the wind and the bad weather. His physicality in the run game will help them in bad-weather games, in the short-yardage game.

"He's the perfect fit, and you have a good -- good -- serviceable quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick to play while you groom [Newton]. It's a no-brainer in my opinion to take Cam Newton."

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper projects Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller as the pick for Buffalo because he would stabilize their feeble pass-rush.

» NFC Draft Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Each Thursday leading up to the NFL draft (April 28-30), the ESPN.com NFL blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: history in that spot.

Chicago Bears

The Bears' top pick is No. 29 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: Cornerback Kyle Wilson (New York Jets)

2009: Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)

2008: Defensive end Kentwan Balmer (San Francisco 49ers)

2007: Offensive guard Ben Grubbs (Baltimore Ravens)

2006: Center Nick Mangold (New York Jets)

2005: Defensive back Marlin Jackson (Indianapolis Colts)

2004: Wide receiver Michael Jenkins (Atlanta Falcons)

ANALYSIS: The bottom of the first round is a great place to find starting-caliber guards and centers. The top tackles are usually off the board. Fortunately for the Bears, they could use a guard or center just as much as a tackle. While coach Lovie Smith wants to bring back veteran center Olin Kreutz, a free agent, he will have to be replaced some day. And more depth at guard could allow the Bears to move 2008 first-round draft pick Chris Williams back to left tackle.

Detroit Lions

The Lions' top pick is No. 13 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: Defensive end Brandon Graham (Philadelphia Eagles)

2009: Defensive end Brian Orakpo (Washington Redskins)

2008: Running back Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers)

2007: Defensive lineman Adam Carriker (St. Louis Rams)

2006: Linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (Cleveland Browns)

2005: Offensive lineman Jammal Brown (New Orleans Saints)

2004: Receiver Lee Evans (Buffalo Bills)

ANALYSIS: Unfortunately for the Lions, this isn't a great spot to get an elite cornerback. Those types of players are usually drafted in the top seven or eight picks. (The Lions are hoping that Nebraska's Prince Amukamara somehow slips through the cracks.) This is a nice area to draft a second-tier defensive lineman, and this year, the Lions will probably have their pick of offensive tackles as well.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers' top pick is No. 32 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: Cornerback Patrick Robinson (New Orleans Saints)

2009: Defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (Pittsburgh Steelers)

2008: Defensive end Phillip Merling (Miami Dolphins)*

2007: Receiver Anthony Gonzalez (Indianapolis Colts)

2006: Defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka (New York Giants)

2005: Offensive guard Logan Mankins (New England Patriots)

2004: Tight end Benjamin Watson (New England Patriots)

*First pick of second round.

ANALYSIS: There are some awfully productive players on this list. Part of the reason is that the previous year's most successful organization were in that spot and thus are more likely to make a good scouting decision. But it also tells us the Packers should have an opportunity to select a player who can make an immediate impact as long as they don't limit themselves to certain positions.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings' top pick is No. 12 overall. Here are the past seven players taken in that spot, with their NFL team in parentheses:

2010: Running back Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers)

2009: Running back Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)

2008: Offensive tackle Ryan Clady (Denver Broncos)

2007: Running back Marshawn Lynch (Buffalo Bills)

2006: Defensive lineman Haloti Ngata (Baltimore Ravens)

2005: Linebacker Shawne Merriman (San Diego Chargers)

2004: Linebacker Jonathan Vilma (New York Jets)

ANALYSIS: This list tells us what we knew already: You can get a blue-chip, impact player here if you exercise good judgment. The Vikings' decision, of course, will be complicated by their need for a quarterback. What will they do if they have, say, a potentially elite pass-rusher like North Carolina's Robert Quinn available to them? Take Quinn and look for a quarterback later? Or prioritize the quarterback?