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"Monday Night Football" analyst Jon Gruden did a conference call Wednesday to discuss the quarterback prospects with which he's had a chance to work for his "Gruden's QB Camp" series in advance of the draft. He discussed them all, but the one of greatest concern to Washington Redskins fans is of course Robert Griffin III, whom the Redskins are expected to draft with the No. 2 pick two weeks from Thursday night. As reported fom Rich Campbell at the Washington Times:

"He can revive the Redskins as long as he stays healthy and he buys in and really takes to this new system and he continues to work. But this is a special young man whether the camera is on or off."

Griffin

Gruden believes Griffin will succeed under Redskins coach Mike Shanahan because of Shanahan's track record with mobile quarterbacks.

"Some of the best tape that I've ever studied was Mike Shanahan and John Elway in Denver," Gruden said. "The back-to-back Super Bowl championship teams, they took advantage of John Elway’s mobility. A lot of people forget just how extraordinary Elway was handing the ball off to Terrell Davis, and those naked bootlegs off of those stretch plays were devastating.

"What Mike did in San Francisco with Steve Young, another mobile quarterback, those were as good of offensive tapes as I've ever seen. I think when you get Robert Griffin, one of the most explosive quarterbacks to ever play the position, in a Mike Shanahan-type system, the possibilities are very exciting, I think, with Mike Shanahan's imagination."

Gruden and Shanahan are friends, it should be noted. And it's also worth noting that Elway and Young are two of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the sport. Griffin could surely have a long and successful career without ever being nearly as good as either of those two players. But that word "revive" is a good one, since that will be the young man's task. (Unless the Colts surprise everyone and take him No. 1, in which case it will be Andrew Luck's task.)

The Redskins and their fan base are yearning for something about which to feel good. Excitement about the Redskins has been dormant for a long time. Just imagining Griffin in a Redskins uniform has begun to "revive" that excitement, but Griffin must deliver on his considerable promise in order to create a real "revival" for the Redskins and their fans. It's hard to find an expert anywhere who doesn't think he is capable of doing that.

PALM BEACH, Fla. -- As you may have heard, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay has been wandering around the NFL owners meetings saying his team is undecided on whether it will take Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III with the No. 1 pick in the draft. Irsay could be telling the truth, or he could be putting up a smokescreen, as everyone does about the draft this time of year.

One thing is certain, though. The Washington Redskins, who traded three first-round picks and a second-round pick to the Rams earlier this month to move up to the No. 2 pick, don't care. They know they're getting one of those premium quarterbacks, and that's all that matters.

"That's a decision, when you get to the second pick, you've got to feel great about both guys," Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said Wednesday morning. "There can't be any, 'Oh, I hope I get this guy, I hope I get that guy,' because you don't know what's going to happen. You know what's reported, but you just don't know, especially with this process. But when we did move up to that position, we had to feel great about both of them before we gave up what we gave up."

It's widely believed the Colts have been set on taking Luck for some time, and the likelihood is that the Redskins will end up with Griffin. And because of Griffin's exceptional speed and mobility, conventional wisdom has begun to coalesce that says Griffin "fits Shanahan's system" better than Luck would. But Shanahan disputes that notion, indicating that he believes it underrates Luck's athleticism.

"I say both of these guys, because they've both very athletic," Shanahan said. "When you take a guy (Luck), who's 6-4, that's 240 (pounds) and can run a 4.6 forty, that guy can move pretty good. And obviously with Robert, running a 4.4 or under, usually guys that are that fast can't throw. And he can do both."

The Redskins have not worried, since making the trade, that they paid too much. The franchise has been in need of a franchise quarterback for years -- decades, really. And Shanahan believes that it's an essential ingredient to a championship team.

"The Super Bowls that I've been involved with, with Steve Young, with John Elway, both were franchise quarterbacks," Shanahan said. "They can make plays when everything breaks down. And if somebody can do that, then you've got an opportunity, once you get to the playoffs, to do something special. Now, can you still win without one? Sure you can. But you'd better be pretty special."

Shanahan said he and his staff are spending 11 hours a day preparing for the rest of the draft, going over every possible player and trying to identify potential future stars they can find in the later rounds. But what the Redskins did when they made the deal with the Rams was buy themselves their biggest present a month before Christmas. And every day, they walk past it, wrapped and sitting under the tree. And as excited as they are, they're happy to wait to unwrap it, because they know it's going to be awesome.

The era is over.

The Indianapolis Colts' breakup with Peyton Manning is official -- ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported that Manning will be released Wednesday -- and it displaces any of the most extreme examples of business ruling sports.

Since 1993, the NFL standard for “it can happen to anyone” has been Joe Montana. The San Francisco 49ers traded Montana, regarded by many as the greatest quarterback of all time, to the Kansas City Chiefs.

But Manning was even more unlikely to finish his career on a second team. He has been cut, not traded, which makes it more extreme. While Andrew Luck is regarded as a can’t-miss prospect, he’s hardly as can’t-miss as was Steve Young, who was already playing for the 49ers when they moved Montana.

Henceforth, in any conversation about the possibility of a star player who's intertwined with his team and city moving elsewhere, I believe we will say, “If it could happen to Peyton Manning with the Colts, it can happen to anyone.”

We have the new, supreme example of business trumping relationships, sentiment and history.

And we have the next big step in the NFL’s biggest offseason story: How is Manning's arm strength? Where will Manning land? How will the Colts move on?

Stay tuned for much more.

One common complaint we talk about often in these parts is how the NFC South sometimes gets lost in the shadows of divisions or teams with bigger markets and higher profiles.

Well, maybe we should be careful what we wish for. The NFC South is about to take center stage on a national platform, for all the wrong reasons.

The scandal involving the New Orleans Saints and what the NFL says was a “bounty program," designed to reward defensive players for intentionally injuring opponents, will be the topic of an hour-long NFL Live Special on ESPN at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Trey Wingo is scheduled to host. He’ll be joined in studio by Tedy Bruschi, Darren Woodson, Mike Golic, Marcellus Wiley. Former NFL quarterback Steve Young and former NFL defensive back and head coach Herm Edwards will join them via satellite and there could be other special guests.

John Elway was quiet about Tim Tebow's future during the 2011 season. Elway opted to focus on the present.

However, Elway didn’t wait long after the season ended to commit to Tebow moving forward. Elway said in a news conference Monday that Tebow has earned the right to be the Broncos’ quarterback heading into training camp.

Some folks may take that as Elway hedging his bets a little bit because he didn’t commit to Tebow as the certain 2012 starting quarterback in Denver. But the fact that Tebow is going to camp as the starter is truly all he can ask for. Elway’s announcement means the Broncos want him to be their starter in 2012 and they will build their team this offseason with the hopes that Tebow will be the starter.

No team wants to plan to have one quarterback be the starter going into to camp only to replace him later. Thus, Denver plans on Tebow being its starting quarterback in 2012.

It’s the right move. Yes, he was up and down in 2011, but he’s young. He has started just 16 games in the NFL. His first-year totals compare favorably to Hall of Famers Elway and Steve Young.

Elway is right. Tebow earned more time. And it’s no surprise he will get the chance to further prove himself. I will be back with more later on this story.

The Denver Broncos’ AFC divisional playoff loss at New England was Tim Tebow's 16th NFL start.

Thus, the 2010 first-round pick has started the equivalent of one full NFL season.

There were many ups and downs for Tebow during the 16-game run, in which he led Denver to a 9-7 record. Denver was 4-14 in 2010 and 2011 without Tebow as its starter.

Tebow’s statistics in his 16 starts were a mixed bag.

While Tebow needs to work on his accuracy and consistency, he has done a good job not throwing interceptions. He has thrown for 2,835 yards and 19 touchdowns while being intercepted nine times.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Tebow’s first 16-game numbers compare favorably to the first 16 games of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks with whom he is often compared — John Elway and Steve Young. The Elway comparison is relevant in that Elway played for Denver and is now the Broncos’ main decision-maker. Young, like Tebow, was a left-handed quarterback who made plays with his feet.

Elway threw for 2,448 yards, 10 touchdown passes and was intercepted 21 times in his first 16 games. Young threw for 2,722 yards, nine touchdown passes and had 16 interceptions in that span.

Does this mean Tebow is on a Hall of Fame pace? Of course not, but it shows that he did some good things — and that he isn’t the first quarterback in history to have his early-career trials and tribulations.

Drew Brees is capable of many great things. But you can’t go to the miracle well 63 times in a game and expect it to produce every time.

That was proved Saturday as Brees and the New Orleans Saints lost 36-32 in a divisional playoff game to the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.

History will tell us this was one of the best games in playoff annals, coming as it did with four lead changes in the final 5 minutes and San Francisco’s winning touchdown with 9 seconds remaining. History will be right, because this game was exciting all the way around.

But the surrounding hysteria might get in the way of history, so let’s go ahead and go on the record with one very important item that cannot be overlooked: You can’t go deep into the postseason with Brees and Brees alone.

That’s what the Saints tried to do, and it came painfully close to working. They had Brees attempt 63 passes. He completed 40 of them, and it looked like he had the miracle the Saints needed when he hit tight end Jimmy Graham with a 66-yard touchdown pass with 1:37 left.

But football -- particularly when it’s in the postseason and on the road -- is about much more than a quarterback, even if he’s surrounded with Graham, Darren Sproles and Marques Colston.

You must have defense, special teams and a running game. The Saints had none of those things against the 49ers, and that’s why they lost.

They simply asked too much from Brees, and they should have known better.

Just go back and look at New Orleans’ three losses during the regular season. There’s a little lesson here.

In the opener at Lambeau Field, Brees attempted 49 passes -- a number that would end up as his regular-season high. He lost a shootout to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, and there’s no shame in that. But look closely at the Saints' other two losses, because they came against inferior opponents. In an Oct. 16 defeat to Tampa Bay, the last game the Buccaneers won, Brees attempted 45 passes.

Oh, and then there’s that inexplicable loss to St. Louis two weeks later. Brees attempted 44 passes in that game. Win either the St. Louis or Tampa Bay game, and the Saints are the No. 2 seed and playing at home, where they were undefeated in the regular season.

There’s a line of demarcation where too much Brees becomes a bad thing. It’s somewhere in the low 40s. Yeah, Brees threw 44 times in victories against Houston and Jacksonville, 45 times in a three-point win over Carolina and 47 in a December victory against Tennessee. But none of those was pretty, and Houston was the only playoff team among that bunch.

In games in which Brees attempted 43 or fewer passes, the Saints were 8-0. They also were at their best in those games. They had a running game, some defense and no huge mistakes by the special teams.

But the Saints apparently didn’t notice that trend. They put too much on Brees on Saturday, and they did have some valid reasons for that. Brees didn’t help matters with two interceptions, and the Saints turned the ball over three times in the first quarter.

They fell behind 17-0. Then, they let Brees bring them back but didn’t do anything to help him. The running game, which had been so much better than last season’s, was nonexistent. Sproles, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas combined for only 13 rushing attempts and 32 yards.

Thomas left the game with an apparent concussion after losing a fumble near the goal line in the first quarter. Without him, the New Orleans offense became predictable. When Ivory was in the game, it was obvious the Saints were running. When Sproles was in there, it was obvious they were throwing.

And they threw way too often against a defense that can generate pressure. On his 63 drop-backs, Brees was sacked three times. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Brees was under duress an additional 17 times. When under duress, Brees completed five of 16 attempts (31.3 percent). Brees also threw away five passes after throwing away only eight during the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs.

Again, there should have been a lesson from the regular season. The most times Brees was sacked or under duress (17) was in the St. Louis loss. Against Green Bay, Brees was sacked or under duress on 12 of his drop-backs.

The more often you have Brees drop back, the more you’re asking for trouble, especially when you have two All-Pros at guard but very ordinary tackles.

However, the biggest letdown of all came from the defense. It happened twice after Brees brought the Saints all the way back to take the lead.

The New Orleans defense was pretty good in the 2009 championship season, but it’s fallen off dramatically since then. After doing a decent job against the 49ers most of the game, it totally collapsed in the final four minutes.

The Saints allowed Alex Smith to score on a 28-yard run, the longest of his career. No one should ever confuse the slow-footed Smith with Steve Young. But now, in addition to Young, he’s going to get compared to Joe Montana.

After the late touchdown to Graham, Smith took the 49ers on a drive for the ages. He hit tight end Vernon Davis with a 14-yard touchdown pass to win the game with 9 seconds left. Matched up against strong safety Roman Harper most of the game, Davis finished with seven catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints should have known going into the game that Harper on Davis was a huge mismatch, but they kept letting it happen and they kept making Smith look great when it mattered most.

This game showed what’s been suspected since after the Saints won their Super Bowl. Their defense isn’t that good anymore.

That’s obvious now, and there are bound to be ripples, maybe even big waves, after this loss. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ contract just expired, and there already has been speculation he could be joining his old buddy Jeff Fisher in St. Louis. Coach Sean Payton, who once gave up part of his own salary to get Williams, might not stand in the way of a move after this one.

It’s going to be a busy offseason for the Saints. They must sign Brees to a new contract because his deal is up. The Saints have other expensive potential free agents such as Colston and guard Carl Nicks.

There’s no doubt the Saints will keep Brees and, in the process, probably make him the league’s highest-paid quarterback. But as they look at their salary-cap situation after taking care of Brees, they should take a long, hard look at their roster.

It’s time for some changes. You can do all sorts of flashy things and break lots of records by letting Brees carry your team. But he can win a championship only when he has some help around him.

It’s time to give Brees that help.

Have you caught your breath yet from that wild early game Saturday? Me neither.

Books will be written about the San Francisco 49ers' epic 36-32 victory over the New Orleans Saints. But here's what applies to the NFC North: The Green Bay Packers now know they would host the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game if they defeat the New York Giants on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

That would be a blast from the (recent) past, wouldn't it? The Packers and 49ers matched up four times in the postseason between the 1995-98 seasons. The Packers won three of them. But the one that everyone is referencing Saturday, of course, is the 49ers' 30-27 victory in the 1998 wild-card round. (Steve Young to Terrell Owens. Tears. You remember. Yes, I know. Jerry Rice fumbled.)

The 49ers haven't won a game against the Packers since then, going 0-8 over that span. Let's not get carried away, though. The Packers have some work ahead of them first.

Just how long can this Denver Broncos circus act last?

It is officially time to wonder what kind of damage the Broncos could administer if they actually get into the playoffs -- and how they match up against the best teams in the AFC.

After going 7-1 with Tim Tebow as the quarterback and riding a six-game winning streak (including the past four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter, only the second time in history that has happened), the Broncos are on pace to win the AFC West and be the No. 4 seed. Denver -- which has a 78.8-percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN.com's Insider Playoff Predictor -- leads Oakland by one game in the AFC West. If Denver beats Kansas City at home in Week 17, the Raiders will have to finish with a better record than the Broncos to win the division because of tiebreakers.

The Broncos will face their greatest challenge of the Tebow run Sunday, when they host 10-3 New England. In the most anticipated game of Week 15, we stand to find out a lot about the Broncos, who are winning with a wicked combination of Tebow’s late brilliance, the league’s best running attack, timely, stiff defense and clutch special-teams play, all guided by first-year coach John Fox and his staff in one of the best coaching runs in the NFL this season.

Denver doesn’t necessarily have to win this game to win the division, but if the Broncos can stick with the Patriots, it could send quite a message about their readiness for January football. Because Denver is winning with complete football, it is taking on the look of a team no one wants to see on the same side of the playoff bracket.

“My head says it will end this week, but my heart says they have a real shot,” Gary Horton of Scouts Inc. said. “I think it’s going to end every week, and then it just goes on. I talk to a lot of smart football people every day and no one has any answers for it. But we’re buying in. I think this game against New England should be the end, but I can also see Denver pulling it off.”

Part of the phenomenon that has been the Broncos’ season is the evolution of expectations for them. After a 45-10 drubbing by Detroit on Oct. 30 in Tebow’s second start, the Broncos were 2-5 and had the look of a team that would be picking in the top five and looking for a new quarterback in the offseason. Analysts gave the Broncos no chance. And they weren’t alone: I remember talking to several people in the Broncos’ organization that day, players included, and despair hovered over the team.

Since that day, however, the Broncos have mesmerized the league and caused several analysts to change their tune. ESPN analysts and previous Denver skeptics such as Merril Hoge, Steve Young and Trent Dilfer all said on the air this week that they are buying into what Tebow and his teammates are doing. When asked on ESPN this week if he could see Denver ending up in the Super Bowl in less than two months, analyst and former NFL head coach Herm Edwards responded this way: “I can’t say no."

Beyond the comebacks, the Broncos are answering a lot of questions. Against Oakland (where they won 38-24) and Minnesota (Denver won 35-32), they proved they can outscore teams. Against Chicago, Denver proved it can win when Tebow has to throw 40 times. And Denver is 5-0 on the road with Tebow as the starter. What might make Denver tough to beat in the playoffs is that it is playing at high level in all areas, as this ESPN Stats & Information post explains.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he is not taking the Broncos lightly going into Sunday’s game.

“They’re a good football team and they’re playing great,” Belichick told reporters this week. “They’re well-coached; solid team. Defensively they do a lot of things well. They run well. They have good pass-rushers, cover well. They’ve made a lot of big plays, third-down stops, short yardage, goal line, red area, turnovers. They’ve made them all at the right times. They’re real good on special teams, good coverage team, good kickers and good returners. Offensively they do a good job of running the ball, getting it down the field. They have a lot of long passes. Again, they’ve made the big plays when they had to in critical situations at the end of the game, fourth quarter, overtime, third down, all those kind of things. They’re at the top of their game.”

How Denver hangs with New England should provide some gauge of its playoff hopes. But what about against other AFC big hitters -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston?

“It’s like the Patriots, I don’t like their chances,” Horton said. “But then again, I do like their chances because of what the Broncos have done in the past six weeks. I think Denver’s strategy in every game will be to keep it low.”

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. doesn’t think Tebow could win in the playoffs against the Ravens, Steelers or Texans.

“I can’t say I see Tebow doing well at all against any of these three defenses,” Williamson said.

Haven’t we been saying that for weeks?

“I’m dumbfounded," Horton said. “But I’m not going to underestimate Denver anymore. Maybe they won’t do anything if they get to the playoffs, but did you ever think we’d even be talking about them having a chance at the playoffs this late in the season?”

Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 48-3 loss against the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park:

What it means: You can blame it on the long trip across the country. Or you can blame it on the short week after the “Monday Night Football’’ victory against Indianapolis. I’m not taking either route. I’m thinking the Bucs weren’t as good as their record might have indicated. We’d seen some holes even when the Bucs were winning against ordinary or bad teams. The 49ers are pretty good, but it’s not like Joe Montana or Steve Young is leading this team. San Francisco was able to exploit all sorts of Tampa Bay's problems on offense and defense. The Bucs (3-2) fell out of their tie for first place in the NFC South with the New Orleans Saints, who improved to 4-1 with a victory against Carolina.

Injury of note: Tampa Bay defensive tackle Gerald McCoy suffered what appeared to be a serious ankle injury in the first half and did not return. That would be a huge loss if McCoy is out for an extended period because the second-year pro recently had been emerging as a force in the middle of the defensive line. Fellow second-year pro Brian Price also has been playing well. The Bucs can fall back on Roy Miller and Frank Okam, but neither of them has McCoy’s potential for explosiveness.

Stat of the week: Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman threw two interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown. That gives Freeman six interceptions for the season. That’s the same number of interceptions he threw all of last season.

Stat of the week II: The Bucs had a chance to put together their first four-game winning streak since Raheem Morris took over as coach in 2009. That didn’t happen.

What’s next: The Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The schedule doesn’t get any easier after that. The Bucs will leave soon after the Saints’ game to head to London, where they will play a “home’’ game against the Chicago Bears. After that, the Bucs get a bye week, but they have to travel to New Orleans to play the Saints again the following week.

Cool note from ESPN Stats & Information: First-year San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is the last quarterback other than Peyton Manning to start a regular-season game for the Indianapolis Colts.

That will change when Kerry Collins replaces an injured Manning in the Colts' lineup for Week 1.

The first preseason game I covered as an NFL beat reporter featured Manning making his first start against the Seattle Seahawks in the Kingdome. His very first pass found Marvin Harrison for a 49-yard touchdown. Preseason games are generally without much meaning, but could there have been a more fitting beginning for Manning?

For a fuller appreciation of Manning's durability and consistency in starting 227 consecutive games, I went through Pro Football Reference counting how many quarterbacks had started for current NFC West teams since Manning made his regular-season debut. There have been 48. That figure includes 14 for the St. Louis Rams, 13 for the 49ers, 11 for the Arizona Cardinals and 10 for the Seahawks.

A few notes on the 48 players to start for current NFC West teams since 1998:

• There have been two Brocks (Berlin, Huard), two Charlies (Frye, Whitehurst), two named Chris (Chandler, Weinke), two Jeffs (Plummer, Martin), three Johns (Friesz, Navarre, Skelton), one Jon (Kitna), two Matts (Hasselbeck, Leinart), two Shauns (Hill, King), three Steves (Young, Bono, Stenstrom) and two Trents (Dilfer, Green).
• Two, Young and Warren Moon, have been enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame since Manning's streak began.
• Dilfer and Warner started for more than one current NFC West team since Manning's streak began. Warner started 57 games for Arizona and 50 for St. Louis. Dilfer started 12 for Seattle and six for San Francisco.
• Hasselbeck has the most total starts for current NFC West teams with 131, followed by Marc Bulger (95 for St. Louis), Jake Plummer (73 for the Cardinals) and Jeff Garcia (71 for the 49ers).
• Smith -- Alex, not Troy -- owns the most starts among current NFC West players with 50, all for San Francisco.
• Eight of the 48 were one-and-done as starters: Berlin, Scott Covington, Ty Detmer, Glenn Foley, Friesz, Frye, Navarre and Weinke. Nineteen have made at least 10 starts.

The NFC West will have two starters new to the division in Week 1: Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb.

The chart shows start totals by team for the 48. The NFC West changed membership with realignment in 2002. I'm going back to 1998 for the four teams currently in the division.

David Garrard completed 64.5 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns and 15 interceptions for the Jacksonville Jaguars last season.

One player in Seattle Seahawks history -- Matt Hasselbeck in 2005 -- met those single-season standards for completion percentage and touchdowns without exceeding 15 interceptions.

Two players in San Francisco 49ers history -- Joe Montana four times and Steve Young three -- did the same.

The 2005 Hasselbeck is gone from Seattle and is not coming back. Montana and Young have long since taken their places in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Does that mean the Seahawks and 49ers should be pushing their way to the front of the line for Garrard now that Jacksonville has released the veteran quarterback? Making the case for "yes" is much easier than taking the other side.

I'll be a little surprised if either team lands Garrard, however.

The Seahawks have held firm to their belief that Tarvaris Jackson's familiarity with their offense will help them navigate a difficult period coming out of a lockout. They likely wouldn't be willing to pay Garrard significantly more than they're paying Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst during this transition season. If they wanted a 30-something veteran behind center -- Garrard is 33 -- they would have re-signed Hasselbeck, in my view. And Garrard lacks the mobility Seattle has sought from its quarterbacks under coach Pete Carroll.

The 49ers could use a veteran backup and/or someone to compete with Alex Smith. Coach Jim Harbaugh liked Garrard coming out of college and valued him as a third-round choice at the time, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. That was a long time ago. Garrard lacks the mobility Harbaugh valued so much when targeting Colin Kaepernick in the draft this year. But if the question is whether Garrard would make the 49ers better at the position, the answer is yes.

System-wise, Garrard might fit better in Arizona, but he wouldn't get onto the field there without an injury clearing the way.

Garrard was scheduled to earn more than $8 million in salary this season. He'll earn much less with another team this season. He would offer the best value as a signing after Week 1, at which point his salary would not be guaranteed.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc., says he's not a Garrard fan, in part because Garrard stares down receivers. But after calling Jackson the worst starter in the NFL, he thinks Seattle would be better off with Garrard. He thinks the 49ers should have some interest as well.

Thanks go to Adam Schefter for passing along analyst Steve Young's comments about Matt Hasselbeck possibly landing with the San Francisco 49ers.

A few thoughts:

• Hasselbeck would fit in well with the 49ers. He knows the NFC West, obviously, and he's close to one of the 49ers' new coaches, Bobby Engram, from their years playing together with Seattle. Hasselbeck would benefit from the relatively strong ground game in San Francisco. He could stay on the West Coast, traveling easily between Seattle and the Bay Area. For him, this might be the next-best thing to staying in Seattle.
• Don't discount the role agents play. As Matt Maiocco pointed out, Young has ties to Hasselbeck's agent, David Dunn. Agents like to create markets for their clients. Sometimes they like to create the impressions of markets for their clients. Having the 49ers mentioned as a possibility for Hasselbeck creates a little buzz. Dunn has also worked with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke, with some reports suggesting Dunn has represented them. Are Dunn and the 49ers messing with Seattle? It's tough to say, but a fun thought.
• This would be bad for Alex Smith. Smith could not beat out Shaun Hill or J.T. O'Sullivan in previous camps. He's put up better numbers than Hasselbeck over the past couple seasons, but would Smith beat out Hasselbeck in an honest competition? The smart money says probably not.
• This would be good for the 49ers. They need quarterback depth. Smith has had injury problems. Rookie Colin Kaepernick could need time to develop. Between Smith and Hasselbeck, the 49ers would get through the season with a smart, experienced player behind center. Hasselbeck's résumé would enhance the position.

The Seahawks weren't interested in signing Hasselbeck to a deal that would have given him security beyond one season. Their reported interest in Tarvaris Jackson suggests the team could be ready to move on without Hasselbeck. I wouldn't rule out a return to Seattle, but if the 49ers are interested, Hasselbeck would be wise to listen.

In this Insider post, Football Outsiders takes a look at the 10 biggest oversights in NFL history. Basically, they’re looking at guys that started out with one team, didn’t do much of anything there and went on to greatness elsewhere.

Well, guess what? The No. 1 and No. 2 guys on the list come from teams that are now part of the NFC South.

Brett Favre came in at No. 1 and Steve Young is No. 2. Yep, I know it’s ancient history, but Favre and Young each spent a little time with teams now in the NFC South.

Favre was drafted by Atlanta and spent a year with the Falcons. It’s easy to look back and say the Falcons and then-coach Jerry Glanville made a huge mistake in trading away a guy who’s sure to be in the Hall of Fame. But that’s not really a fair way of looking at it. Fact is, Favre was wild in those days and has admitted he was out of control.

There are stories about the Falcons posting a security guard at his door so he wouldn’t sneak out the night before a game. There’s also the legendary story about Favre missing practice and telling Glanville it was because he was in a car accident.

Glanville’s response: "You are a car accident."

Favre put things together when he got Green Bay. But things were never going to work in Atlanta if Favre had stayed on the same path.

Saying the Bucs were flat-out wrong in giving up on Young after two ugly seasons isn’t right either. It just wasn’t the right place or the right time for Young to even have a chance. In the late 1980s, the Bucs were as dysfunctional a team as you’ll ever see. Young spent most Sunday’s running for his life because the Bucs couldn’t protect him.

They gave up on him and traded him to San Francisco, where he prospered after serving some time as Joe Montana’s backup. Tampa Bay turned around and drafted Vinny Testaverde as the franchise quarterback. Testaverde also had enormous talent, but could never get things going with the Bucs because there was so little talent.

First in a series on NFC North players whose career trajectory puts them on a path to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Every summer, the Pro Football Hall of Fame welcomes a new class of elite achievers behind its sacred walls. Some were destined for the honor from the moment they entered the NFL. Others blossomed later in their careers, and a few benefited from adjusted judgments over time.

No matter the parameters, I want to use this slow(er) time of the year to consider the nascent candidacies of our most prominent NFC North players. We could easily generate a list of a half-dozen or so players who deserve inclusion in this discussion. I have some thoughts, but your nominations are welcome (via the mailbag.) We'll start, however, with a player who has opened his career with a performance that rivals any put forth by the most recent inductees at his position.

In his first three years as a starter, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played at a Hall-of-Fame pace. He is nowhere close to achieving the career milestones that would qualify him for enshrinement, but that is a function of time and not performance.

In researching this topic, I isolated Rodgers' combined production during the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons. I then compared it to the first three full-time seasons of the past seven quarterbacks to enter the Hall of Fame. (Pro-football-reference.com has an excellent database for this kind of exercise.)

The results:

Some thoughts:

• Rodgers started 47 of a possible 48 games over this period, more than every Hall of Famer we compared him to. That alone gave him the opportunity for better raw production. It's also fair to point out that Rodgers spent the first three seasons of his career in development on the sideline, a luxury none of the other quarterbacks received. But no matter how you look at it, Rodgers threw for more yards in his first three seasons as a starter than any of the past seven quarterbacks who have been enshrined.
• Also consider that Rodgers threw for more touchdowns than all but Dan Marino, had a better completion percentage and passer rating than all but Steve Young, and tied Young for the fewest number of interceptions. Rodgers and Joe Montana were the only quarterbacks in this group to win a Super Bowl during one of his first three years as a starter.
• In some cases, it was difficult to find perfect apples-to-apples comparisons. I skipped Young's tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in the USFL, instead using the first three seasons after he replaced Montana as the San Francisco 49ers' starter. Young was 30 years old at the time and seven years removed from his entrance into pro football. I also skipped Montana's mostly inactive first season with the 49ers, but his sample size was still limited to 32 starts because of the 1982 NFL players strike.

Many of you will rightfully note the NFL's recent shift toward passing offenses and suggest that Rodgers' raw production is in part a product of his era. Fair point. To address it, I looked at three contemporaries whose advanced careers make them near-locks for election. In the second chart, you'll see how Rodgers' first three years stack up against the same span for Brett Favre, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. As you can see, the start of Rodgers' career compares favorably to each player:

Let's be clear here. Just about every quarterback on this list improved in a substantive way over the course of his career. The rest maintained an extraordinary level of consistency over a decade or more. Rodgers already has the highest passer rating in the history of the NFL for quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts. It's unreasonable to expect a significant surge in his raw numbers, and so a comparison after six years might look a little different.

While we're mentioning caveats, it's only fair to point out that some of the other quarterbacks -- especially Troy Aikman, John Elway and Peyton Manning -- opened their careers on struggling and/or rebuilding teams. Rodgers on the other hand, took over a team that had advanced to the NFC Championship Game the season before.

These permutations shouldn't detract from what Rodgers has done, however. His early career deserves to be placed among those who ultimately proved to be among the best ever. Whether he continues on to Canton will be a function of his health and continued elite play for perhaps another five to seven years. That isn't an afterthought. Put another way, Rodgers probably needs to put together two more three-year stretches like the one he has just finished to put himself in strong position for the Hall of Fame.

Of all the careers I looked at, Young's might provide the best parallel. Like Rodgers, Young got a later start. In essence, Young put together seven elite seasons as the 49ers starter, playing until he was 38 to get to that point. He was on three Super Bowl championship teams but the starter on just one.

Obviously, there are differences between Young's history and Rodgers. But we know this: Rodgers has put himself on the path to Canton, and if you want to see how he can complete that journey, take a look at Young's history.

We'll continue taking a look at other NFC North players in a similar position as the summer continues.

The floor is yours.