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» Super Bowl XLVI Final Word: Patriots | Giants

Five nuggets of knowledge about Super Bowl XLVI:

Home sweet road: The New York Giants have won six straight playoff games on the road or at neutral sites dating to 2007, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Eli Manning has been the quarterback for all six of them, and his six career postseason wins away from home tie him for the record with four other quarterbacks, including the New England Patriots' Tom Brady. (The others are Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach and Joe Montana, so not a bad list.) Manning's ability to remain cool under all kinds of pressure has been well documented, but his record in hostile or neutral environments in postseason games offers yet another example.

You again? Manning and Brady are the third pair of quarterbacks to face off in multiple Super Bowls. The Cowboys' Troy Aikman and the Bills' Jim Kelly met in Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII. Aikman won both. The Steelers' Bradshaw faced the Cowboys' Staubach in Super Bowls X and XIII. Bradshaw won both. Brady's hoping to buck history and pull off a split with Manning, who beat him in Super Bowl XLII.

Hot at the right time: The Giants are the third team in history to reach the Super Bowl after failing to win at least 10 games in the regular season (not counting strike-shortened seasons). The previous two were the 2008 Arizona Cardinals and the 1979 Rams. Each of those teams lost its Super Bowl, so a Giants win would make them the first Super Bowl champion to enter the playoffs with fewer than 10 wins. They are also the first team to reach the Super Bowl after being outscored by their opponents in the regular season. The Giants scored 394 points and allowed 400 on their way to their 9-7 regular-season record. Those 2008 Cardinals (plus 1) and 1979 Rams (plus 14) were the teams with the worst point differential in Super Bowl history until this year.

Peyton's place: Eli Manning is playing the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where his brother Peyton Manning has established himself as an all-time great quarterback with the Colts. Peyton had a head start on Eli and has fashioned a brilliant Hall of Fame career, but little brother's playoff numbers stack up with big brother's. Peyton Manning is 9-10 all time in postseason games with a 63.1 completion percentage and a 29-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Eli Manning is 7-3 in the postseason with a completion percentage of 59.8 and a TD-INT ratio of 16-8. If Eli throws three touchdowns on Sunday, it would give him 11 touchdown passes this postseason, which would tie the record for a single postseason set by Montana in 1989 and equaled by Kurt Warner in 2008.

Tough guys: According to ESPN Stats & Information's "Next Level" stats, the pass-catchers in this game are very difficult to tackle after they catch the ball. The stat they use is "yards after contact," which differs from "yards after catch." Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who's been struggling with an ankle injury since the AFC Championship Game, led the league with 290 yards after first post-catch contact. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz was second with 245. Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker was third with 242 yards, and Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez was fourth with 231.

Three things to know about Super Bowl XLVI, which will be played Feb. 5 between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Indianapolis:

1. Giant rematch: New England's 2012 playoff revenge tour continues. The Patriots entered the playoffs 0-3 in their previous three postseason games. The Patriots exacted revenge against the Baltimore Ravens Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Baltimore knocked the Patriots out the playoffs following the 2009 season. Now, New England gets another chance at the Giants, who beat the then-undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII with a late touchdown drive four years ago. That was the last time both teams reached the Super Bowl.

2. Brady chasing history: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is chasing history on several levels. Brady is 16-5 in the playoffs and can become the NFL all-time winningest postseason quarterback with a win over the Giants. Brady would surpass his childhood hero Joe Montana. Brady also can tie Montana and former Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw with four Super Bowl championships.

3. "Gronk" will be ready: Patriots Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a gruesome left ankle injury that knocked him out the third quarter of the AFC Championship Game. He eventually returned in the fourth quarter but played on adrenaline. Gronkowski said he will be ready. But the ankle will probably experience some swelling over the next couple days and this will be a big injury to watch. "Gronk" has been a major part of New England's offense. He caught five receptions for 87 yards in the AFC title game.

Here is scary news for the rest of the NFL: Tom Brady wants to play quarterback for the New England Patriots until he's 40 years old.

That means, theoretically, Brady and coach Bill Belichick plan to dominate the AFC East and keep New England in title contention until 2017. Brady will turn 35 next August.

But five more years? That is an eternity in the NFL, where the average career span is approximately 3-4 seasons. Does Brady have enough in the tank to play 17 years at such a demanding position?

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only four quarterbacks in NFL history have started on opening day past the age of 40. Warren Moon (41) was the oldest, followed by Brett Favre (40), Vinny Testaverde (40) and Johnny Unitas (40). Brady wants to become the fifth player to accomplish that feat.

Former quarterback and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer played 14 seasons in the NFL and believes Brady will reach that goal. According to Dilfer, the key to quarterback durability is the lower body, not the upper body.

"What goes first with quarterbacks is their legs. Once you lose your legs, you kind of lose everything else," Dilfer explained. "I remember Kurt Warner talking about that late in his career, and obviously I experienced it. Every quarterback experiences it. I think Tom works hard enough to maintain the leg strength he needs to be as precise as he is, and I think he's a competitor that if he puts something in his mind that he's going to do something, he's a guy that goes out and does it.

"There's very few people in sports like that, talk about the Kobe Bryants and the greats in all sports. I think Tom is right up there. When he puts his mind to something, he's going to do it. So I fully expect him to be playing at 40 if he says he's going to."

It's hard to say when that window will close for Brady, who will lead the Patriots (14-3) in Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens (13-4). He's proved over the past dozen years that, as long as he's healthy, he's an elite player. Brady is an MVP candidate this season and, by far the best remaining quarterback in the playoffs.

A case can made that Brady's three best statistical seasons occurred after the age of 30 -- in 2007, 2010 and 2011. He also is coming off a record-tying, six-touchdown performance in a 45-10 playoff victory over the Denver Broncos. It was one of his top single-game performances.

Brady projects to be an elite player for at least the next two or three seasons. Injuries are probably the only thing that can derail him at this stage of his career.

Brady had reconstructive knee surgery and missed 15 games in 2008. Otherwise, he has had a clean bill of health. Outside of 2008, he has missed just one start since taking over the job in 2001.

"If anybody can pull it off, it's Brady, but like we saw with Peyton Manning, he could break down easier [with age] too," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said. "Manning may never be the same. He may never play at that same high level. Who knows? If Brady hits one stumbling block like Peyton did, all of a sudden 40 is a long way away for him. But nobody is playing better than Brady right now."

Brady has been fortunate with pass protection throughout his career. He has been sacked 26 times or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.

Former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi was a longtime teammate of Brady's and knows firsthand the importance of protecting the veteran quarterback. Brady is a classic pocket passer who moves well in the pocket. But he doesn't have the ability to run away from defenders.

"As players progress up into the years, the more shots you take, the shorter the second half of your career will be," Bruschi said. "And I think Tom Brady will play as well as his offensive line, his protection, allows him. I think he's shown over the course of the last few years that there are the usual (ailments), they're becoming normal now. Late in the season where he had a rib or a shoulder or various injuries like that over the course of a season.

"You end up accumulating some damage, especially as a quarterback, because you're the most sought-after hit in terms of the defensive perspective. So if he can be protected, I think that goal is possible. He can play as long as he wants to."

Brady currently is playing with a left-shoulder (non-throwing) injury that has to be managed during the playoffs. This week Brady sat out of Wednesday's practice to rehab and watched extra film of Baltimore's defense.

An under-the-radar aspect of Brady's longevity could be the development of tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Both have been tremendous weapons and security blankets for Brady in their second season together.

Throwing in the middle of the field is the quickest and easiest completion for quarterbacks. It also keeps the pass rush at bay.

"They're obviously a huge part of what we do," Brady said of his tight ends this week. "They are on the field quite a bit and they’ve been healthy so it’s been good to have them both out there. ... They're pretty good with the ball in their hands and break a lot of tackles so that’s definitely a plus for us also. We have a lot of yards after catch this year, and those two guys certainly do a great job with the ball in their hands."

Patriots owner Robert Kraft still remembers when the late-round draft pick came to Foxborough as a long shot in 2000. Kraft shared a great story about his first encounter with Brady this week.

"I still have the image of Tom Brady coming down the old Foxboro Stadium steps with that pizza box under his arm, the skinny beanpole," Kraft said. "When he introduced himself to me and he said, ‘Hi, Mr. Kraft’ and he was about to say who he was and [I said] ‘I know who you are, you’re Tom Brady, you’re our sixth-round draft choice.’ He looked me in the eye and said, ‘I’m the best decision this organization has ever made.' It looks like he could be right, although hiring Bill Belichick, I think, also has been a pretty good decision."

Brady's Hall of Fame legacy is secure. If he retired today, Brady already would be among the top quarterbacks ever to play the position. He has three Super Bowl rings and could tie his childhood hero -- Joe Montana -- for the most playoff victories (16) with a win over Baltimore Sunday.

But the difference between being a top-five quarterback and the greatest ever could come down to these next five years. Brady can tie Montana (four) and Terry Bradshaw (four) for the most titles in these playoffs. But if Brady plays through age 40, he has a legitimate shot at being the winningest quarterback in NFL history.

"I'm really happy that we have him as our quarterback," Kraft said. "I hope we have the best quarterback and coach in the history of the game. I guess to prove that, we have a little more execution that we have to do over the next few years. I certainly hope we do it."

How do you view Tom Brady's postseason record?

Overall, it's impressive. But lately Brady hasn't done so well with the season on the line.

Brady is a stellar 14-5 in 19 career playoff games. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Brady is tied with Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw and John Elway for the second most playoff wins in NFL history.

But Brady is winless in his past three playoff games. This includes two consecutive one-and-done postseasons following the 2009 and 2010 seasons. New England also lost Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

In fact, Brady hasn't won a playoff game since the AFC Championship following the 2007 season. Four years is a long postseason drought for Brady and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who are the NFL's winningest quarterback-coach tandem.

There are no excuses for New England not to win a playoff game this year. The Patriots (13-3) are huge favorites and got the easiest possible draw for the divisional round with Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos (9-8).

Brady, who won 14 of his first 16 playoff games and three Super Bowls, needs to get back on the winning side of the postseason starting this Saturday. If the Patriots, Brady and Belichick lose their fourth consecutive playoff game, expect a ton of offseason criticism in New England.

Now that we’re getting down to some real football, I’m happy that I can start interacting more with my friends at ESPN Stats & Information.

They supply some wonderful stuff, much of which you can’t get anywhere else, and we’ll lean heavily on them during the regular season. Heck, we’ll start it a little before the regular season.

Now that we know for certain Cam Newton will be the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers on opening day, it’s time to look at some history.

Here’s a look at quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall (since 1966) who started a season opener and how they fared in that game.

• 2010: Sam Bradford, Loss
• 2009: Matthew Stafford, Loss
• 2002: David Carr, Win
• 1998: Peyton Manning, Loss
• 1993: Drew Bledsoe, Loss
• 1990: Jeff George, Loss
• 1989: Troy Aikman, Loss
• 1983: John Elway, Win
• 1975: Steve Bartkowski, Loss
• 1971: Jim Plunkett, Win
• 1970: Terry Bradshaw, Loss

None of the above finished the season with a winning record as a starter. In other not-so-encouraging news in this department, all rookie quarterbacks starting an opener since 1970 are a combined 10-16. But, hey, there’s one bit of good news for Carolina fans. One of those 10 wins came by Carolina with Chris Weinke in 2001.

He already has thrown for 7,000 more yards than Terry Bradshaw, completed one fewer touchdown pass than George Blanda and won one more Super Bowl championship than Jim Kelly and Fran Tarkenton combined.

So they already should be carving Drew Brees from the shoulders up in Canton, Ohio, right? The quarterback of the New Orleans Saints could retire tomorrow and waltz straight to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in five years, correct?

Well, it’s not quite that easy. At least not yet.

Brees has 35,266 career passing yards. He should soar past Kelly in the first game of this season and should end the year somewhere pretty close to Johnny Unitas, who ranks No. 12 all-time with 40,238 passing yards.

If Brees throws 33 touchdown passes this season, the same number he threw last season, he’ll have 266 for his career. That number would put him in the top 10, just behind Joe Montana at 273.

If you’re putting up numbers like Unitas and Montana, shouldn’t you be an automatic Hall of Famer? Yes, if Brees had played in the same era as Unitas or Montana.

But times have changed, and if you don’t believe me, let me throw out three names: Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe and Kerry Collins. All three rank well ahead of Brees in career passing yards, and Collins might not be done yet. Bledsoe and Testaverde also rank ahead of Brees in career touchdown passes.

Bledsoe, Testaverde and Collins are pretty good quarterbacks, and their stats were helped by longevity. That’s not a bad attribute, but nobody is ever going to argue that Testaverde, Bledsoe or Collins belongs in the Hall of Fame.

What they represent is the middle ground of the last generation. Brees has to cross that -- and then some -- to assure himself a spot in Canton.

Testaverde had 46,233 career passing yards, which ranks seventh. Bledsoe is one spot behind him at 44,611 yards. Collins is No. 11 at 40,441 yards. Testaverde is No. 8 in career touchdowns with 275, and Bledsoe is No. 14 with 251.

As a member of this generation of quarterbacks, Brees has to go beyond the numbers of guys like that. The bar has been raised, and it’s still rising.

Assuming Brett Favre stays retired this time, he finished his career leading in passing yards (71,838) and touchdown passes (508). Then, you’ve got guys like Peyton Manning, who is 34, still going strong with 54,828 passing yards and 399 touchdowns and Tom Brady, who is 33, with 34,744 yards, 251 touchdowns and a handful of Super Bowl rings.

Manning and Brady are going to continue to increase their numbers, and Brees has to stay on a similar pace. I’ve had the honor to vote for the Hall of Fame twice, and I can assure you voters pay very close attention to a player's contemporaries. Brees isn’t going to get in simply by putting up numbers close to Testaverde, Collins and Bledsoe.

He’s got to stay somewhere close to Manning and Brady. It would help if Brees could avoid seasons like last year when he threw a career-high 22 interceptions and the Saints got bounced by Seattle in the first round of the playoffs.

I’m not trying to cast gloom on Brees’ Hall of Fame chances. I seriously think he’ll get there, but I’m just saying there’s some work left to be done.

Brees had some knee problems last season but still threw for 4,620 yards and 33 touchdowns. Those numbers are pretty comparable to an average of the two seasons before that.

Let’s assume the knee is healthy and say Brees goes out and plays four more seasons with numbers like that. It’s fairly realistic, as long as Sean Payton’s calling the plays, Marques Colston is catching the passes and Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks are blocking up front.

That would put Brees at 53,746 passing yards and 367 touchdown passes. That would put him fourth on the all-time passing yards list and fourth on the list of all-time touchdown passes, as they now stand.

That would be an automatic pass into Canton. Brees doesn’t even need to reach those numbers to get there. He just needs to move ahead of the middle-of-the-pack guys, and a few more playoff wins wouldn’t hurt. Brees is approaching the doors to Canton. He just needs to keep going straight up a few more steps.

The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are inspecting quarterbacks.

They're looking at game tape, attending pro days, hosting the top prospects for private workouts.

They'll study arm strength, command of the huddle and 40-yard dash times.

What about brain power?

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported the Wonderlic intelligence scores from many of the notable quarterbacks who took the test lat month at the NFL scouting combine.

• Greg McElroy, Alabama: 43.
• Blaine Gabbert, Missouri: 42.
• Christian Ponder, Florida State: 35.
• Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: 30.
• Andy Dalton. Texas Christian: 29.
• Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: 26.
• Cam Newton, Auburn: 21.
• Jake Locker, Washington: 20.

Some teams weigh Wonderlic scores more than others.

The generally accepted score that keeps teams comfortable is 20. Anything lower creates concern.

But it's not a definitive measurement either. Among widely reported scores, Hall of Famers Jim Kelly and Terry Bradshaw posted 15s, Donovan McNabb scored a 14 and Ryan Leaf posted a 27. Dan Marino's score is reported as a 16 or a 15, depending on the source.

Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick took the test in a record nine minutes and scored a 48.

"It is interesting that you will find guys that are really, really bright that just don't test well and just the opposite," New England Patriots personnel executive Floyd Reese said in a USA Today story a few years ago, while working for the Tennessee Titans. "A guy will score a 40 and can't get across the street."

FORT WORTH, Texas -- In his 50 years of experience with scouting, personnel and eventually media, Gil Brandt has seen all the football dynasties come and go in the NFL.

In Brandt's eyes, this current group of Pittsburgh Steelers can put its name into that elite category with a third championship in six seasons.

"You have to, yes," the former Dallas Cowboys player personnel executive said of considering Pittsburgh a dynasty. "We have some teams that have been in the NFL 45 years and haven't won a Super Bowl."

The Steelers have a lot on the line Sunday in Super Bowl XLV against the Green Bay Packers. Not only is Pittsburgh playing for another Lombardi Trophy, but the franchise can make a strong case to be the NFL's latest dynasty -- a term that applies only to teams winning multiple titles in a concentrated period of time.

Pittsburgh has all the ingredients for sustained success: good coaching, stellar defense, a franchise quarterback and future Hall of Famers. These are many of the same attributes of past dynasties, such as the old Steelers of the 1970s, the San Francisco 49ers of the 1980s, the Cowboys of the 1990s and, most recently, the New England Patriots of the past decade.

So where would Pittsburgh potentially fit?

"I think if we win this [Super Bowl], you have to put this organization down as being one of the dynasties of the 2000s,” said Steelers 13-year receiver Hines Ward. "We know what's at stake. For us, it's another opportunity to win another Super Bowl. We're 2-0 in Super Bowls and we don't want to experience the other side."

What exactly counts as a dynasty in today's NFL, and how much has the definition changed?

Here is some food for thought: Since free agency began in the spring of 1993, only two teams (the Denver Broncos and Patriots) have won back-to-back Super Bowls. The Cowboys' Super Bowl titles bridged the start of modern free agency. They won Super Bowl XXVII to mark the end of the 1992 season. After the era began with Reggie White's departure from the Philadelphia Eagles to join the Packers in April 1993, the Cowboys still managed to win the Lombardi Trophy that season. Although the 49ers claimed the 1994 season's title, Dallas would later cement its dynasty status by winning a third championship in the modern free-agency era during the 1995 season.

The NFL landscape has changed dramatically in the past 15 or so years where players rarely play for one team. That makes it much harder to consistently stay on top.

"I think if you can get three in a decade, those teams are up for dynasties," Steelers safety Ryan Clark said. "So I think if you get three titles in six years, you have to be considered."

Even if Pittsburgh wins Sunday, the biggest knock on the Steelers would be this current group has never won back-to-back Super Bowls. But this is a league where parity rules. Eight different teams have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in the past eight seasons.

"Back-to-back titles is obviously huge, because that to me is the hardest thing to do," said former tailback and Super Bowl champion Ricky Watters with the Niners. "But to stay up there is hard, too. We see teams that get there and then they’re gone. Then they may get back up there, and they’re gone again. So I think the staying power is important."

The Steelers have never won back-to-back titles the past six seasons, but they also never had a losing season. Including playoffs, Pittsburgh holds a 71-35 record over that span.

"Well, I don’t know if it's necessary because it's really hard to win back-to-back," said Brandt explained. "The reason it's hard to win is because the competitive balance in this league is so good."

Now more than ever, the NFL has become a coaching and quarterback league. This is a major reason Pittsburgh has been able to sustain its success.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger doesn't put up gaudy numbers but is arguably the most clutch quarterback in the NFL. He is 10-2 in the playoffs and has a chance to improve to 3-0 in Super Bowls this Sunday. Earlier this week, the AFC North blog examined whether a third championship cements his status as a future Hall of Famer.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has a chance to win his second Super Bowl in just his fourth season. Tomlin could surpass his predecessor, Bill Cowher, who won one championship in Pittsburgh in 15 seasons.

Both are young for their respective positions. Roethlisberger, 28, and Tomlin, 38, will be stalwarts in Pittsburgh for a long time with a chance to win multiple championships together.

"We have a great relationship. He's a player's coach and I like playing for him," Roethlisberger said this week of Tomlin. "He's one of the reasons we want to win football games. We are blessed to have him as our coach."

The Steelers don't have to look far for motivation. Perhaps the greatest dynasty of all time was the dominant 1970s Pittsburgh teams that won four Super Bowls in a six-season span. That Steeler dynasty also had two back-to-back title runs.

This week several Pittsburgh veterans say they’re trying to live up to that standard. On their way to meetings at Pittsburgh's complex, Steelers players and coaches must walk by their NFL-high six Lombardi Trophies, including those four won by Terry Bradshaw, Jack Lambert, Lynn Swann and Co.

"We have what you can't buy, which is legacy," Tomlin said. "[It's] an unbelievable standard and expectation and all those great things."

No dynasty lasts forever. That is why it's important for this proud, veteran group of Steelers to seize this moment.

There are aging veterans older than 30 such as Ward, James Farrior, Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel going for their third ring, and there are no guarantees any of these Steelers will get another chance to win another Super Bowl.

"We're not worrying about what happens afterwards. It's a whole bigger issue than us after this game,” Ward said of potentially making history. "So is this the last run? Why would it be the last run? We have a huge opportunity to win our third Super Bowl, and we're trying to come down here and make the most of it and see if we can bring our seventh Super Bowl back to Pittsburgh."

When it comes to attaining dynasty status, consider Super Bowl XLV a "swing game" for the Steelers.

Beat the favored Packers at Cowboys Stadium and this Steelers group will forever be in the dynasty discussion. But lose to Green Bay, and that conversation abruptly ends.

ARLINGTON, Texas -- When it comes to the Hall of Fame, three or more championships is the magic number for NFL quarterbacks.

It paved the road to Canton for Dallas Cowboys great Troy Aikman, whose three Super Bowl wins in the 1990s marked one of the NFL's most recent dynasties.

Joe Montana of the San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw became legends with four titles. In today's group, quarterback Tom Brady of the New England Patriots is a lock for the Hall of Fame after winning three championships.

Could three rings do the same for Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger?

Just seven seasons in, it's officially time to open the Hall of Fame discussion for Pittsburgh's franchise quarterback. At 28, Roethlisberger has a chance to go 3-0 in Super Bowls on Sunday when the Steelers play the Green Bay Packers at Cowboys Stadium.

With the exception of Brady, who is still playing, every starting quarterback who's won at least three Super Bowls has been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Although not as conventional a player as Brady, Roethlisberger has a chance to put his name in that elite category Sunday.

ESPN.com's AFC North blog surveyed Hall of Fame voters during Super Bowl week to get a feel for Roethlisberger's candidacy and where it would stand if he leads Pittsburgh to a third championship.

"If you ask me if Roethlisberger deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, I would say without a doubt," said veteran NFL writer John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. "To me, Ben doesn't have to win a third ring. But if Ben wins [Sunday], that's all that matters for a quarterback. I can't imagine there would be any hesitation."

Opinions varied from those who will eventually make the final decision.

"There's too much of a rush to judgment, not only with the Hall of Fame but with the whole world where everything that's the latest becomes the greatest," explained longtime Hall of Fame voter Ira Miller. "But the first question I always ask is, 'Can you write the history of the game without this player?' Then the second thing is, let's put him in perspective among the quarterbacks of his era.

"Is Ben the best quarterback of his era? No. Is he the second best? No. Is he the third? Maybe. He's had a nice career so far. Maybe he will win two more Super Bowls, but we don't know that."

There's no question Roethlisberger will present an interesting case for the Hall of Fame committee when he becomes eligible five years after he retires. He's a quarterback who's put up less-than-gaudy numbers in the high-flying age of fantasy football.

Roethlisberger has never led the NFL in passing yards or touchdowns. He admits he probably will never win an MVP award. But Roethlisberger also has never had a losing season and has been to four AFC title games and three Super Bowls.

Roethlisberger's playoff record is 10-2, which is a higher winning percentage than both Brady (14-5) and Peyton Manning (9-10), who are considered Hall of Fame locks from today's group of quarterbacks.

In fact, the trio's dominance has been astounding. In the past eight Super Bowls, the AFC has been represented by either Brady, Manning or Roethlisberger. No one else has had a chance to even compete in the big game. In contrast, the NFC has been represented by eight teams and eight different quarterbacks over the same span (Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Kurt Warner and Drew Brees).

"It drives [Steelers] Coach [Mike] Tomlin crazy, because he wants me to put myself in that category," Roethlisberger said of joining Brady and Peyton Manning. "But, I don't know, I guess I like being the hunter, not the hunted."

The biggest case against Roethlisberger's Hall of Fame candidacy appears to be longevity. Seven seasons present an unfinished résumé.

"When I'm looking at Hall of Fame guys, I'm looking at whether he's one of the best at his position over an extended period of time and does he have longevity," said former receiver James Lofton, who played 16 seasons and was inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2003. "It's obviously a great start, but Ben has a lot of football left to play. I think he could play a minimum of 12 years."

Although there are exceptions -- such as Gale Sayers, Dwight Stephenson and Doak Walker -- most enshrinees have had long careers that spanned at least a decade. But Roethlisberger is winning big right away, which has prompted this early discussion.

"If Roethlisberger gets his third ring, he's on pace, just like in the case of Troy Aikman," Hall of Fame voter and ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton said. "He's obviously a difference-maker. At the same time, he's not there yet. He's still 28 and longevity is very important."

Roethlisberger's recent off-the-field issues bring up another interesting debate. He has been accused of sexual assault twice in the past two years, and although never convicted of a crime, Roethlisberger was suspended four games this season for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.

Several voters brought up the case of former Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who has repeatedly run into legal issues but was a first-ballot Hall of Famer as one of the greatest linebackers of all time.

"Remember, our bylaws say only what happens on the field counts," McClain said.

But voters on the committee are human, after all, and it may weigh in the back of some people's minds.

"The Roethlisberger situation is a bit tricky," said Hall of Fame voter Joe Reedy of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "Yes, he could have three rings, but he wasn't great in Super Bowl XL. (Roethlisberger was 9-for-21 for 123 yards and threw two picks.) And even though the off-field stuff is not supposed to enter into the conversation, it definitely is going to be the white elephant in the room."

Roethlisberger chose to wear jersey No. 7 because one of his favorite players growing up was Denver Broncos Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway. It's fitting because Elway, in many ways, was Roethlisberger before Roethlisberger.

Elway never had the prettiest or most conventional style of quarterbacking. In terms of numbers, his career passer rating was a modest 79.9. But Elway was one of the most clutch players ever and managed to win two Super Bowls and five AFC title games.

Although his book is unfinished, Roethlisberger is building a similar case for the Hall of Fame and can add another storied chapter Sunday against Green Bay.

"I think Ben Roethlisberger is well on his way to having a Hall of Fame career. If he plays a leading role in winning this Super Bowl, he's that much closer," said Hall of Fame voter and ESPN.com NFC West blogger Mike Sando. "But I think the legacy is still pending and there's a reason we wait. There's a reason we don’t vote players in right after they retire, let alone while they're still playing. I think this will be best judged when he's finished playing and we've had five years to figure it out.

"So far, though, so good."

If the Jets advance to the Super Bowl, would Rex Ryan be the best coach in the NFL?


FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Peyton Manning in Lucas Oil Stadium, Tom Brady in Gillette Stadium and Ben Roethlisberger at Heinz Field.

That's the gauntlet New York Jets coach Rex Ryan must traverse.

And if he makes it through still alive and advances to the Super Bowl, then Bill Belichick, Lovie Smith, Todd Haley or anybody else who wins a 2010 Coach of the Year Award ought to ship it on over to One Jets Drive.

The sixth-seeded Jets can accomplish a rarity if they defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday for the AFC Championship. Wild-card teams have reached the Super Bowl before, but only one team ever has knocked off the first, second and third seeds to do it.

The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers were the first, but the quarterbacks they faced in those playoffs were Carson Palmer, Manning and Jake Plummer. Not exactly a Murderer's Row.

Manning, Brady and Roethlisberger have won six Super Bowls and played in eight. They have a combined 32-17 postseason record.

"That's a pretty strong task when you mention guys like that," said Tom Flores, who coached the first wild-card champions, the 1980 Oakland Raiders, in Super Bowl history. "They've been there before. They've experienced being in big games before and winning big games before.

"You're going against the best. There's no unknowns there."

In addition to the superstar opposing quarterbacks, the Jets are venturing into some of the most difficult venues in any sport.

Flores got past an impressive group of quarterbacks for his first Super Bowl (he won another two years later as a division champ): Ken Stabler, MVP Brian Sipe and future Hall of Famer Dan Fouts.

But that lineup isn't as tough as what the Jets are facing. Flores sees Sunday's game being less intimidating than their showdown against the Patriots.

"Their biggest hurdle was in New England," Flores said. "That was almost impossible to beat them there."

Unfortunately for Ryan, awards like coach of the year are based on regular-season results.

He led the Jets to a 11-5 record, but they faded down the homestretch. Their lopsided 45-3 loss to the Patriots in Week 13 followed the next week by an ugly home loss to the Miami Dolphins erased any chance of Ryan winning honors.

But if Ryan can navigate this rugged playoff stretch and make it to the Super Bowl, then we'll know who really deserves to be considered the best.

"Well, I can say this: It's not easy," Ryan said. "I don't know who's next. [Terry] Bradshaw?

"Clearly, we have a ton of work to do to pull this off. But we think we're the men for the job, and we're going to find out Sunday."

Mere mention of the stat elicits astonished replies. Professional athletes and coaches -- grown men who have seen a few things in their day -- stammer in awe.

"That's ... That's ... That's ... That's something else," Baltimore Ravens cornerback Chris Carr said.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick found the number "mind-boggling," and he owns a Harvard economics degree.

"It's ... I mean," Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said before a contemplative pause to gather his thoughts. "It blows my mind a little bit, to be honest with you."

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has thrown four interceptions this year. He hasn't misfired once since Oct. 17, a record span of 319 attempts and counting.

Brady has been the ultimate mistake minimalist. With one game left in a phenomenal season, he could finish with the lowest interception percentage of any quarterback to start more than 10 games.

"Even the best quarterbacks have something they give away," New York Jets safety Brodney Pool said. "He really doesn't. It's hard for opposing DBs to get a clue. He's very smart. He knows where to go with the ball and knows the weaknesses of the coverages.

"You can try to hold a coverage, but even if you trick him one time he'll come back the next time and you won't know what hit you."

Brady has a 0.84 interception percentage. The NFL record of 0.41 was set by former Brady backup Damon Huard with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2006. Huard threw one interception, but that was with 10 starts and only 244 attempts.

Brady's interceptions have been limited to two games. If the Dolphins don't pick him off Sunday in Gillette Stadium, then Brady will join Steve DeBerg as the only quarterbacks not to be intercepted in 14 starts. DeBerg also threw four interceptions in 1990, but Brady already has 32 more attempts than DeBerg had that year.

Pool and Carr comprise half the membership of the exclusive "I Intercepted Brady In 2010 Club." Also in are Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie and former Ravens safety Ken Hamlin, now of the Indianapolis Colts.

Neither Pool nor Carr keeps the footballs from his big plays. In retrospect, Pool says he regrets not hanging onto his Brady ball.

"You know what?" Pool admitted. "I thought about that after the game: 'Man, that was Tom Brady. That's pretty special.' I should've kept it."

That baby was a limited edition.

"I don't keep any balls," Carr said. "A ball is a ball to me. It probably would end up lost in my house, laying around somewhere."

That's right. Carr's chances of losing that ball -- even with nobody trying to steal it -- probably would be higher than Brady's.

"Sport Science" examined the likelihood of a quarterback not throwing an interception in 319 straight attempts.

Since Brady's last interception, quarterbacks around the league have thrown 296 of them, 2.9 percent of all attempts. Based on those averages, the chances of dodging an interception on 319 straight throws would be 0.00837 percent -- or one in 11,947.

Math is one thing. Where a fellow quarterback such as Fitzpatrick or an opposing coach like Sparano has comprehension problems is when they consider how Brady has skirted all those happenstances that cause interceptions.

A tip, a bobble, a defender hitting the quarterback's arm as he throws, a receiver falling down, a badly gripped football in the snow, a wind gust altering trajectory just enough ...

Brady's season is even more incredible when considering the Patriots receivers are second only to the Detroit Lions in drops this year. ESPN Stats & Information has charted 36 drops for the Patriots and a league-worst 11 for Wes Welker.

"A tipped ball has haunted us three or four times this season in different ways, whether it's just fluttering up in the air or lands on the ground," Sparano said. "To think that not one of those -- not one of those things -- is happening in 300-plus attempts is pretty impressive."

Most of the four interceptions Brady did throw weren't his fault. Three of them were deep balls. Two were long passes to Randy Moss, who's no longer on the team. Moss twice tipped the ball into the air before Pool swooped in and made a tippy-toe grab at the sideline. The play originally was ruled incomplete and overturned on video review.

Hamlin fielded Brady's last interception, a Hail Mary skyball that sailed 48 yards through the air and into the end zone on the last play before overtime against the Ravens.

Since that play, Brady has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,536 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Carr stressed that interception-avoidance isn't about luck with Brady. He's a great quarterback within a proficient offensive structure. The Patriots often have a lead and rarely play from more than one score behind, erasing the need for Brady to force throws late in games.

"It's more quarterback than system," Carr said. "If you put any other quarterback in that system, he's not going to have that streak. You put Brady in any system and he's going to be successful."

Joe Montana threw at least seven interceptions each season he made 10 starts. Dan Marino never threw fewer than nine interceptions in any season he started at least 10 games.

John Elway had double-digit interceptions every year he played. Brett Favre threw a career-low seven interceptions once as a starter, but never fewer than 13 interceptions any other season.

Peyton Manning has a pair of four-interception games this year. Drew Brees has one also.

A search of Pro-Football-Reference.com turns up seven Hall of Fame quarterbacks with at least seven "quadriception" games on their ledgers since 1960. George Blanda had 18, Joe Namath 15 and Terry Bradshaw 12.

Brady owns five four-interception games.

Yet he's one game away from closing out a four-interception season.

Criminy, the Patriots' defense has returned that many interceptions for touchdowns this year.

"He doesn't stare down receivers like some quarterbacks do," Carr said. "He looks off receivers when he does throw the ball down the field. When the receiver's not there, he's going to throw the ball away. When it's time to take a sack, he's going to take a sack.

"He has confidence that 'Hey, if the throw's there I'm going to make it. If it's not, we're going to live to play another series, and we'll score then.' He takes what the defense gives him."

Brady hasn't thrown any interceptions on passes that traveled 10 yards or fewer in the air, ESPN Stats & Information notes. And before you dismiss that zero as unimpressive because those are higher-percentage throws, keep in mind Drew Brees has thrown 12 interceptions in this range. Eli Manning has thrown 13.

Brady has 358 passing attempts of 10 yards or shorter. Every quarterback with at least 115 attempts in this category has been intercepted.

Carr noted Brady didn't make a mistake on his interception, a deep pass over the middle to Welker. Carr said the Ravens tricked Brady by doing something unexpected.

But when asked to recount the play, Carr showed deference to Brady's and the Patriots' shrewdness. The Ravens might meet the Patriots again in the playoffs.

"I'm always thinking ahead," Carr said with a chuckle. "I know how smart Brady and them are. They'll read the article. Somebody in the organization will go back and watch the film and get a little bead on that. They're always looking for that advantage."

Terry Bradshaw is as gregarious as they come. He must love New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan, right?

Wrong.

ESPNNewYork.com reporter Rich Cimini relayed some strong comments Bradshaw delivered Thursday in his hometown of Shreveport, La.

"He doesn't even play, so it's easy for him to shoot his mouth off," Bradshaw told television station KTBS. "He doesn't make a tackle. He doesn't run a ball. He doesn't make a catch or throw a ball. He just sits over there. Unfortunately, I don't think his players are quite as strong-minded as he is."

Bradshaw, a Hall of Fame quarterback who won four Super Bowls with the Pittsburgh Steelers, didn't express much confidence that Mark Sanchez could handle it, either. Bradshaw at least was sympathetic to what the young quarterback is dealing with.

"He's putting a lot of pressure on his young quarterback," Bradshaw said of Ryan. "If they can't run the ball, they're going to have to throw it, and they can't pass protect.

"He'll shut up real quick. You know what? I don't like guys like that, OK?"

Notable players: QB Terry Bradshaw, LB Jack Lambert, RB Franco Harris, DB Mel Blount, LB Jack Ham, WR Lynn Swann, DT Joe Greene, WR John Stallworth.

Analysis: The '75 Steelers were the first Pittsburgh team to win back-to-back Super Bowls. It was also the best team from the famed Pittsburgh dynasty of the '70s, which included a bevy of Hall of Famers.

Led by the Bradshaw -- aka the "Blonde Bomber" -- Pittsburgh was able to win through the air and on the ground in an era when most teams were one-dimensional offensively and thrived on ground-and-pound football.

Pittsburgh's famed "Steel Curtain" defense was one of the best of all time and held seven opponents to single-digit scoring during the '75 season. In three playoff games, including the Super Bowl, offenses averaged only 12.3 points per game.

The '78 and '79 Pittsburgh title teams were also tremendous. But the '75 group had several key advantages.

For starters, every key member in '75 was in, or approaching, his prime. Hall of Famers Bradshaw (27), Blount (27), Ham (27), Lambert (23), Harris (25), Swann (23) and Stallworth (23) came into their own during this first run of back-to-back titles. By the time the second run of championships came at the end of the decade, this core group was four years older and some were approaching the end of their storied careers.

Further displaying their dominance, the '75 Steelers won by an astounding average of 15.1 points per game in the regular season, which led the NFL. It was also the highest margin of victory for any of Pittsburgh's championship teams. The '78 team won by an average of 10.1 points per game, while the '79 team won by 9.6 points per game.

Most impressive win: The Steelers' 21-17 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl X was the team's crowning achievement. The Steelers won the turnover battle 3-0 to pull out a historic and close game. It completed the first of Pittsburgh's two back-to-back championships in the decade.

Research Room: The Steelers allowed 17 touchdowns in 14 regular-season games in '75. In contrast, Pittsburgh scored 46 touchdowns, including two fumble returns for scores and one kickoff return.

Big Franco: Harris is best known for the "Immaculate Reception" in '72 during a playoff win over the Oakland Raiders. But his best season rushing the football came three years later.

Harris recorded a career-high 1,246 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns during Pittsburgh's title run in '75. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and also caught 28 passes out of the backfield. The nine-time Pro Bowler and Hall of Famer had eight 1,000-yard seasons.

Honorable mentions (in order):

1978: A dominant group that won 14 games in the regular season and a Super Bowl. They scored at least 33 points in all three playoff victories.

1979: The last championship team of the Steelers dynasty of the '70s. This group was No. 1 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense.

1974: This team started the run of four championships in the '70s. But it wasn't until a year later that the core group of Hall Famers all blossomed and came into their own.

The St. Louis Rams need not look far to see what can happen when an overmatched NFL team mishandles a quarterback drafted first overall.

The division-rival San Francisco 49ers are still trying to recoup their investment in 2005 first overall choice Alex Smith.

The Rams probably will not change offensive coordinators every year for the next five seasons, as the 49ers improbably did in Smith's first five, but they still need to be careful with rookie No. 1 overall choice Sam Bradford.

Early indications suggest the Rams would like to follow the plan Philadelphia took with Donovan McNabb back in 1999, when Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was coaching the Eagles' tight ends. Doug Pederson opened as the Eagles starter that season, allowing McNabb to ease into the starting role. McNabb got some reps off the bench before taking over as the starter in November.

In setting expectations for Bradford, I looked at production by rookie quarterbacks since 1970. The list featured several older players, some with experience in the CFL or USFL. I filtered out those players by focusing only on quarterbacks who were 25 or younger as NFL rookies. A quick look at them by games started:

16-game starters

There were only five, in part because the NFL season spanned only 14 games until 1978.

Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Rick Mirer and David Carr pulled it off. All but Flacco, chosen 18th overall by Baltimore in 2008, were drafted among the top three overall choices in their class.

The ones who took the most sacks as rookies -- Carr (76) and Mirer (47) were the only ones to absorb more than 32 -- had the poorest careers. That might suggest the players had a hard time recovering from the beatings they took early in their careers. It also might reveal something about the quarterbacks' ability to process information quickly enough to get rid of the football before trouble arrives.

Offensive lines tend to take disproportionate blame for sacks, in my view. Quarterbacks are often responsible for them as well.

11- to 15-game starters

None in this group threw even 20 touchdown passes in a season (Manning and Dan Marino are the only rookie quarterbacks since 1970 to reach that barrier as rookies).

We should expect modest production from Bradford even if he starts most of the Rams' games.

Ben Roethlisberger was a rarity among this group by completing at least 60 percent of his passes, but rookie completion percentage wasn't a reliable indicator for career success overall.

Some quarterbacks ranking lower played when teams ran higher-risk offenses and rules made it tougher to complete passes.

6- to 10-game starters

Hall of Famers Marino, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw and Dan Fouts fell into this group.

This group featured a solid middle class headed by McNabb, Eli Manning, Bernie Kosar, Jim McMahon, Neil Lomax, Steve Beuerlein, Pat Haden, Doug Williams and Rodney Peete.

There were a few disappointments -- Ryan Leaf, Cade McNown, Kyle Boller and the 49ers' Smith, who still has a shot at redemption -- but this seems like a reasonable number of starts for a quarterback drafted early.

Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman fell into this category last season.

3- to 5-game starters

Some high picks fell into this category, including Bert Jones, Vinny Testaverde, David Klingler, Tony Eason, Rex Grossman, Akili Smith, Jay Cutler, Tommy Maddox, Jim Everett and 1984 supplemental choice Steve Young.

This group produced relatively few true stars, however. Young was an obvious exception. Boomer Esiason was a good value.

In looking at the list, though, my sense is that a really good quarterback -- particularly one chosen early -- will start more than five games if he gets a chance to start at all in his first season.

2 or fewer starts

Hundreds of rookie quarterbacks failed to start a game and 69 did not attempt a pass. The latter group featured Tony Romo and in-the-news quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and Charlie Whitehurst, but Daunte Culpepper, the 11th player chosen in 1999, stood out as a rare high draft choice among the group.

Unlike Carson Palmer, who sat out his rookie season as a high choice in Cincinnati, Bradford is going to play as a rookie unless he gets hurt.

It's reasonable to expect Bradford to start at least half the games, putting up modest numbers. He'll probably struggle some, and that is OK, but it's a bad sign if the Alex Smith comparisons apply by season's end. Smith tossed one touchdown pass with 11 interceptions as a rookie. He wasn't ready and his supporting cast gave him little chance. That's a bad combination.

In a statement released Monday by Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, he promised he would not put himself in another precarious situation again.

The message Roethlisberger sent was clear: He recognizes that he's down to his last strike.

The Steelers and their fans have put up with a lot and also received a lot in return from Roethlisberger. On the field, his quarterbacking has led to two Super Bowl titles since the 2005 season. But away from the field, a trio of incidents have caused offseason distractions, which includes this year's six-game suspension.

In 2006, Roethlisberger went against the advice of others, including Pittsburgh legend Terry Bradshaw, by riding a motorcycle. His crash while not wearing a helmet led to numerous injuries and played a large part in Pittsburgh's 8-8 finish that resulted in the team missing the playoffs the season after Roethlisberger's first Super Bowl win.

A second Super Bowl title after the 2008 season was followed by a sexual assault allegation and civil lawsuit in Nevada last summer, during which the Steelers stood behind and supported Roethlisberger. But a second sexual assault allegation less than a year later caused the organization to seriously consider what to do next with its troubled quarterback.

Despite Roethlisberger's mistakes, it's hard for any team to do away with a $100 million franchise quarterback. If Roethlisberger played another position, was less talented and made significantly less money, chances are the Steelers wouldn't have had the same level of tolerance.

But from Bradshaw to Roethlisberger, it took the Steelers decades to find another elite quarterback. Who knows when another "Blonde Bomber" or "Big Ben" will come through Pittsburgh?

Roethlisberger says he will not appeal his suspension, which is a smart idea. The last thing the Steelers and Roethlisberger need right now is for his latest transgression to stay in the news for several more weeks or months while both parties try to move forward.