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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Redskins in 2012.

Dream scenario (9-7): This would mean Washington's first winning season since 2007, Joe Gibbs' final year as head coach. What has to happen to make it a reality? Well, lots, frankly. Robert Griffin III will need to be very good right away at taking care of the ball and limiting the kinds of mistakes it's reasonable to expect from rookie quarterbacks. Most important, the Redskins' offense must play very well around him. They'll need health from Tim Hightower and continued development from promising fellow running backs Roy Helu and Evan Royster. They'll need Pierre Garcon to play like the potential No. 1 wideout his free-agent price tag says they believe he can be. They'll need the offensive line to stay healthy and play well, with left tackle Trent Williams as its anchor. The Redskins' dream scenario sees Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan cementing their place among the league's top pass-rushing duos, DeAngelo Hall harnessing his ability and playing like a top corner, and something emerging from the muddle they take to training camp at safety. The defense looked like a young defense on the rise last year, and if the Redskins are to threaten or possibly exceed .500, it will have to continue that rise.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): And that would mean the same record as last year, and one game worse than the year before, and drop Mike Shanahan's three-year record as the team's head coach to a rather uninspiring 16-32. That would be what's called, in official NFL terms, "not good." In the Redskins' nightmare scenario, Griffin struggles with the transition, the wide receiver group is as uninspiring as Washington's free-agency critics believe it is and the offensive line falls apart due to injury for the second year in a row. In the nightmare scenario, the secondary remains a big-time weakness of the defense and costs the Redskins dearly in division games against the likes of Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Michael Vick. If all of this happens, the Redskins would enter the 2013 offseason with far more to fix than they currently believe they do, and with questions about Shanahan's future as coach. I don't think there's much that can happen to wreck the Griffin honeymoon between now and January, but if the rest of the team plays well around him and he commits too many turnovers, that particular nightmare scenario could make Redskins fans nervous about the new franchise quarterback going into next season.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cowboys in 2012.

Dream scenario (12-4): The issue in Dallas is the extent to which the defense improves. If the improvement remains incremental, they'll lose some games they should win and have to scrap to stay in the division race. But if the defense takes a dramatic step forward in its second year under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and with Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne having been brought in to upgrade the secondary, the Cowboys become a Super Bowl contender quite quickly. In the Cowboys' dream scenario, Tony Romo has another big year at quarterback, Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray stay healthy and Dez Bryant takes a big developmental step forward of his own, using his considerable physical ability to dominate matchups in other teams' secondaries and the end zone. The new guys on the offensive line tighten things up in the interior, the move back to right tackle makes Doug Free more comfortable and Tyron Smith transitions seamlessly to left tackle. And in the dream scenario, the improvements in the secondary help the defensive front seven get more pressure on the quarterback, with outside linebacker Anthony Spencer playing the way he did in December of 2009 and DeMarcus Ware playing like... well, like he always does.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): The Cowboys' nightmare scenario, as is the case with anyone's, includes injuries. In this scenario, Austin and Bryant struggle to stay healthy, and the team actually does find itself missing the surprisingly effective replacement Laurent Robinson provided in 2011. Murray also gets banged up, forcing them to rely once again on Felix Jones and little else at running back. Claiborne struggles, as young corners often do, to adjust to the speed and intensity of the NFL game, and Spencer muddles along once again, content to be a pretty good but not great player opposite Ware. In the nightmare scenario, Romo has a bad year, riddled with turnovers and the kind of inconsistency that gives his critics actual evidence for their criticism, and raises legitimate questions about how much longer the Cowboys will remain committed to him. The nightmare scenario includes a slow start against a very tough-looking early portion of the schedule, and sees the Cowboys succumb to the tension and negativity that's always so quick to cling to them in times of trouble. And no, because you're asking, I don't think that even the nightmare scenario puts Jason Garrett on the hot seat. Jerry Jones loves that guy.

Mort and Suzy discuss the Bears' offseason issues, Max and Marcellus rank the teams in the NFC East, and Herm and Bill Polian show off their dance moves.

Let's have a little debate, shall we? With nearly four months still to go before the games start, a good, old-fashioned quarterback debate may be just the thing to wake everybody up and get the blood going.

Now, for the purposes of this particular debate, I don't much care which quarterback you think is "better" than the other. Fact is we can't trust you guys to have an unbiased argument about that anyway. Which is fine. You're fans. You're not supposed to be unbiased. I just feel like we can turn this debate a couple of degrees and ask a different kind of question, namely:

Which quarterback is under more pressure to perform in 2012? Michael Vick or Tony Romo?

Yeah, the poll has all four listed, because that only seemed fair. But Eli Manning's a two-time Super Bowl MVP and Robert Griffin III is a rookie in charge of a rebuilding project, so I don't think either of those guys faces the same kind of pressure as Vick faces in title-starved Philadelphia or Romo faces in perpetually unsatisfied Dallas. Go ahead and vote for one of those guys if you really think he's the right answer, but in the context of 2012 only, with Manning coming off a Super Bowl win and Griffin learning the league, I think the answer to this question is between Vick and Romo.

And if you've been reading regularly, you know my pick is Vick. I don't think any quarterback in the NFL this year will be under more pressure than Vick will be. The Eagles are in a must-win situation after their high 2011 hopes flopped, and they can't afford to flop again. Not that the Cowboys can afford to flop, mind you, but I just think Vick is in a higher-pressure situation.

Vick was far more responsible for his team's 2011 flop than Romo was for his team's. Vick has not demonstrated the same kind of year-in, year-out production that Romo has, so he has less of a track record on which to stand. And fair or not, Vick is always going to be judged against his own brilliant 2010 season. A lot of the Eagles' plans last year were based on the idea that Vick could do many things no other quarterback could do, and that that gave them an edge against the other good teams in the league. He may not have to be as incredible as he was in 2010, but he's going to have to show some of that ability in order to make teams fear him and the Eagles.

Vick is in a fascinating situation. He obviously has to mature as a quarterback and a decision-maker in order for the Eagles to succeed. But he has to do so without sacrificing too much of what sets him apart, athletically, from the others who play his position. It may well be an impossible balance to strike. But Vick is being asked to do it anyway, and I think that puts him under a different kind of pressure than Romo or anyone else faces in 2012.

What do you guys think? Play nice!

One thing I have learned in my nearly one full year of running this blog is that everyone is in complete lock-step agreement on how good a quarterback Tony Romo is and on his value to the Dallas Cowboys. Every time I write about Romo, all of the comments are exactly the same, and there is never any dispute about Romo's ability, his worth or his future prospects. We have our share of controversial topics here on the NFC East blog, but when the topic is Romo, no one ever argues or gets upset.

Yeah, right.

Romo's as reliable a lightning-rod topic as this blog has, and hoo boy do I have a doozy for you guys. You might have seen this when it went up Monday afternoon, but it bears a bump this morning: K.C. Joyner has a piece up on the site that says, according to several statistical measures, that Romo is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Now, if you're still reading, and you haven't already rushed to the comments section of this post to fight with each other about this, or to K.C.'s Insider post to argue directly with him, I'll give you a little synopsis of the man's points. (And I guess I might as well remind you that K.C. was about the only analyst last summer who was predicting the Giants to win this division, so it's not as though his often-controversial opinions have never been right.)

K.C. tells us that Romo's ranking is based on the following, mainly statistics-based reasons:

-Superior route-depth metrics (tied for fifth last year in yards per pass attempt)

-Low bad-decision rate, or "BDR" (fifth-lowest last year among quarterbacks with at least 175 pass attempts)

-High Total QBR (finished fourth in the NFL in 2011)

-A long history of top-level statistical performance (tied for fifth in NFL history in career yards per pass attempt)

-Ability to raise the level of play of those around him (Romo averaged double-digit yards per attempt to his third and fourth wide receivers in 2011)

-Changing of the elite guard at the quarterback position (i.e. disappointing 2011 seasons from Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, and injury concerns about Michael Vick and Peyton Manning)

-No signs of letting up (still in his prime and surrounded by big-time offensive weapons)

I think what's interesting is that a lot of these areas in which the numbers show that Romo excels are areas of his game that often fall victim to easy criticism from his detractors. "BDR," for example. K.C. acknowledges that games like the Detroit loss last season contribute to a perception that Romo is a reckless gunslinger, but he says the numbers don't back it up:

BDR is a metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover, like a dropped interception or fumble that is recovered by the offense.

The nine-year track record of this metric shows that a 2 percent or lower BDR is an above-average mark for a dink-and-dunk passer, while gunslinger quarterbacks can take pride in a BDR under 3 percent.

...

As poor as that [Detroit] performance was, Romo still posted a 1.8 percent BDR for the season. That total ranked fifth-best among qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 175 attempts) and is doubly notable because it's quite rare for a risk-taking quarterback to post a BDR under 2 percent.

In the end, though, the issue with Romo remains unchanged. Those who are inclined to dislike him will find plenty of reasons to do so, and will hang their hats on the fact that he's only won one playoff game ever. They'll go back to the botched snap, and the playoff loss to the Giants four years ago, and they'll bellow that he doesn't have what it takes to be great because he hasn't come up big in a big game. And until and unless he does that, no statistical analysis will convince those who don't want to be convinced.

The fact is that Romo is an excellent quarterback who hasn't won yet. And while in this day and age, all that matters to anyone about a quarterback is whether he's ever held the Vince Lombardi trophy up over his head while confetti fluttered down around him, it is in fact possible to be exactly that. Doesn't mean it's fun to be that, but it also doesn't mean Romo's worthless. Two-thirds of the teams in the NFL would trade their current quarterback situation straight-up for the Cowboys' quarterback situation, whether the guy's won or not.

Our NFL columnist, Ashley Fox, has a neat little graphic element up on the site about 10 NFL quarterbacks who are "on the spot" in 2012. I didn't know Ashley was so graphics-savvy, but take a look. One of those slideshow deals where you scroll through and there's a photo and a blurb on each guy.

Anyway, No. 1 on the list is Michael Vick of the Philadelphia Eagles, and No. 4 on the list is Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys. Pretty good representation of our little division, no? Here's Ashley's take on Vick:

The Eagles are built to win this year, but Vick will have to stay healthy and limit his turnovers. He missed three games in 2011 and had 24 turnovers -- and Philadelphia went 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

As we have written many times here, Vick and his turnovers were a bigger part of the problem in Philadelphia last season than was mentioned much at the time or has been discussed much since. As the season draws nearer, I expect the focus on Vick and the pressure he's under to intensify. I agree with Ashley that no quarterback in the league enters 2012 under more pressure than does Vick.

Here's Ashley's take on Romo:

Last season, Romo threw for 4,184 yards with 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. But in six years as the Cowboys' starter, he has won just one playoff game. Romo is 32 years old. Jerry Jones won't be patient forever.

I tend to think Jones might actually be patient with Romo forever, if that's what it takes. Romo and Jones are close, and the Cowboys' owner takes great pride in the fact that the undrafted quarterback to whom he gave this opportunity has blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I don't believe that Jones feels remotely as critical toward Romo and his oft-cited poor playoff record as Dallas fans and the conventional NFL wisdom do, and I really do think that Romo's play would have to drop off considerably in order for the Cowboys to consider replacing him. I do not think it's possible for that to happen within the course of the coming season.

That said, I do agree that Romo belongs on any list of NFL quarterbacks "on the spot," because few get more attention, and the longer he goes without delivering some playoff success (be it his fault or not), the more he squanders the opportunity to take control of the narrative about his own career. He might not care what people say about him now, but someday he will, and if these shadows remain unchanged (hat tip, Mr. Charles Dickens), the story of Romo's career will be that of promise unfulfilled, not that of an undrafted guy who exceeded expectations.

How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Dallas Cowboys

Key additions: CB Brandon Carr, S Brodney Pool, QB Kyle Orton, FB Lawrence Vickers, LB Dan Connor, G Nate Livings, G Mackenzy Bernadeau

Key losses: WR Laurent Robinson, TE Martellus Bennett, FB Tony Fiammetta, CB Terence Newman, G Kyle Kosier (cut)

"You ain't a beauty, but hey, you're all right": Rather than go big for the biggest names out there, the Cowboys took a more directed, focused approach to free agency this year. They did spend a lot to bring in Carr, but they had a glaring need at cornerback and they believed Carr was the best one on the market. The two guards were specifically targeted by Cowboys' scouts and new offensive line coach Bill Callahan, and Connor was brought in to address a need at inside linebacker while 2011 draft pick Bruce Carter continues to develop.

The only loss that they didn't upgrade is that of Robinson, who signed with the Jaguars after coming out of nowhere to catch 11 touchdown passes from Tony Romo in 2011. The Cowboys will hope that one of the young receivers on their roster fills that No. 3 wide receiver role, or that they can catch lightning in a bottle again this year as they did with Robinson last year. They could miss Kosier's leadership on the offensive line, but he was getting old and injured and they needed to keep getting younger on the line.

What's next: While they'll keep an eye out for a bargain-bin receiver to replace Robinson, and they could try and find another tight end to replace Bennett, the Cowboys' main focus the rest of this offseason is likely to be on defense. They could add to the safety or cornerback mix in the draft or with another free agent. They'll keep looking to upgrade the pass rush, either with another outside linebacker or a defensive lineman. Those are the likely areas in which the Cowboys will focus their efforts in the draft.

Otherwise, it's going to be about sorting things out, especially on the offensive line. They need to find a pair of starting guards from a group that includes the two newcomers and the two youngsters -- David Arkin and Bill Nagy -- they drafted last year. Training camp should help sort out what needs to be sorted out on the offensive side of the ball. The draft will be for adding more pieces to Rob Ryan's defense.

New York Giants

Key additions: TE Martellus Bennett

Key losses: RB Brandon Jacobs, WR Mario Manningham, CB Aaron Ross, T Kareem McKenzie

"Reason to believe": The Giants don't like to make big free-agent splashes, and since they're up against the salary cap they also have little choice. But their second Super Bowl title in five years should help ease any concerns fans might have about if they're doing enough in the offseason. The Giants' way is to establish fair prices for the positions they need to fill and to be patient until they find players willing to play for their number. They'd have loved to have Jacobs or Manningham or Ross back, but not for the kind of money those guys found in free agency. They'd love to have linebacker Jonathan Goff and defensive end Dave Tollefson back, but if they get big-money deals elsewhere, the Giants will let them go too.

They targeted Bennett right away and signed him on the second day of free agency, since they saw in him a young talent at a position where they lost two players to major knee injuries in the Super Bowl. And they re-signed cornerback Terrell Thomas and punter Steve Weatherford, two of their offseason priorities. But since then, the Giants have been quiet, content that they have a good, deep, championship roster and willing to let the market come to them.

What's next: The areas of concern, if there are any for the Giants, are linebacker and offensive line. And if Goff comes back, they like what they have at linebacker with the incumbents and last year's rookies. With McKenzie leaving, they could move David Diehl from left tackle to right tackle, but they'll still need to add depth at tackle as they look to the future on the offensive line.

There remains the chance that the Giants could trade defensive end Osi Umenyiora, who was disgruntled about his contract this time last year and now only has one year to go. If they did that, they could move Mathias Kiwanuka from linebacker back to his old pass-rushing spot on the line. But the Giants would have to be really blown away by an offer to move Umenyiora, who has relaxed a great deal about his contract situation and said he'd like to stay.

Philadelphia Eagles

Key additions: LB DeMeco Ryans (trade), G Mike Gibson

Key losses: DE Juqua Parker, WR Steve Smith, QB Vince Young

"We take care of our own": The Eagles' focus so far this offseason has been internal. They extended the contracts of right tackle Todd Herremans and defensive end Trent Cole, signed wide receiver DeSean Jackson to a long-term deal and re-signed free-agent guard Evan Mathis. The Eagles believe last year's team was a good roster that underachieved, and they basically are taking a mulligan and hoping it works this time.

The one exception is a big one -- the trade that brought them Ryans from Houston in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick. The Eagles were pitifully weak at linebacker last year, and that weakness hurt their otherwise successful implementation of the "Wide 9" defensive line formation. They could get to the passer with their front four, but teams were able to attack the middle of their defense at will. The addition of Ryans, a veteran middle linebacker who was a productive tackler and beloved leader with the Texans, should help solve a lot of those problems.

What's next: There remains a strong chance the Eagles will trade cornerback Asante Samuel before or during the draft. They can afford to do so because they'd still be left with Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as starting cornerbacks and the underrated Joselio Hanson at nickel corner. Other than that, the Eagles figure to be fairly quiet the rest of the way.

They're most likely to use their first-round pick on a defensive player, though Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly, who'd be a great addition, now looks likely to be gone by the time they pick at No. 15. So they could pick up another veteran linebacker and use the draft to add to their defensive line rotation. It's also likely they add a veteran safety and a veteran running back to back up LeSean McCoy, who's next in line for a new contract.

Washington Redskins

Key additions: WR Pierre Garcon, WR Josh Morgan, CB Cedric Griffin, S Brandon Meriweather

Key losses: S O.J. Atogwe (cut), S LaRon Landry, WR Donte' Stallworth

"When the change was made uptown and the big man joined the band": The Redskins' biggest move of the offseason was the draft-picks trade they made with the Rams, sending three first-round picks and a second-round pick to St. Louis in exchange for the No. 2 pick in this year's draft. That pick ensures that Washington, which has been looking for a franchise quarterback for a couple of decades, will be in position to take one of the two quarterbacks in this year's draft that projects as a franchise guy. They're most likely getting Baylor's Robert Griffin III, the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner who's got Redskins fans in a tizzy already.

The Redskins' first big moves when free agency opened were aimed at building a new offense for their rookie quarterback to run. Garcon and Morgan are, the Redskins believe, receivers with big-play talent who will fit well into the offense they like to run. The other two big additions -- Griffin and Meriwether -- were brought in to beef up the secondary, which lost its two starting safeties. It's possible Griffin could play safety, though he played cornerback in Minnesota.

What's next: The Redskins continue to try to re-sign veteran linebacker London Fletcher, and they're confident they can do that. They also want to bring back running back Tim Hightower, assuming he's recovered from his ACL injury, and they're in talks with him about doing just that. If they fail in either or both of those efforts, they'll need backup plans, as they'll lack depth at running back and inside linebacker.

Washington still could stand to add to its secondary and find help for the offensive line. Right tackle Jammal Brown has injury problems, and the team is looking for a better option. Demetrius Bell remains on the market and is a player Washington likes for that right tackle spot.

Oh yeah, it's way too early. And Adam Schefter knows this and writes as much when asked in his latest mailbag who he likes to win the NFC East. But if he had to pick someone now, Adam says he'd take the Cowboys:

I honestly believe that any team in the NFC East can win that division, Clarence. Even the last-place Washington Redskins swept the Super Bowl champion Giants last season. I like the Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo more than most; I think Dallas is dangerous. You know the Eagles and the Giants will be good; they usually are. If I'm picking one team in that division today, think I'd go with the Cowboys. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see any of the other three win it.

I'm with Adam on Romo, but I'm not going to be sold on the Cowboys until we see how the offensive line comes together and what looks new, different and better on defense since last year's December collapse. The Cowboys have done a lot of good work in free agency and seem to have a sense of what their needs are and how they want to address them. But while they only missed the division title by one game in 2011, there's reason to believe each one of the division's teams will be better than it was during the 2011 regular season (an important distinction, since it's hard to be better than the Giants were in the postseason), and Adam's got more guts than I do if he's able to make a pick right now.

Five considerations now that Peyton Manning has told the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans he plans to sign with the Denver Broncos:

• More On Manning

  Peyton Picks Broncos:
  You can call this The Drive Part III: John Elway's determination to get Peyton Manning makes the Broncos a contender again, Ashley Fox writes. Story

  Peyton Manning's decision to play for the Broncos is very bad news for the rest of the AFC West, John Clayton writes. Story

  Manning has a kindred spirit in his corner with Elway as his boss, a big reason why he picked the Broncos, Bill Williamson writes. Blog

  • How Manning fits
  • How good are Broncos?
  • NFL Nation: Bloggers react
  • Mike and Mike: Chris Mortensen
  

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  Tim Tebow Watch:
  Mel Kiper breaks down five teams that may be interested in Denver quarterback Tim Tebow, now that Peyton Manning looks to be the starting QB for the Broncos. Story

  • NFL Nation: Bloggers on Tebow's fate
  • Rumors: Who wants Tebow?
  • ESPN Boston: Tebow a fit for Pats?
  • Vote: Tebow's future in NFL?

  ---

  SportsNation:
  Peyton Manning's pick of a team set Twitter abuzz and drew reaction from several current and former NFL players. Not all (Deion Sanders) were fans of the move. Reaction

  • Vote: Peyton, Broncos a good fit?
  • Vote: Rank Broncos after move
  • Quiz: Broncos QBs since 2000

  More:
  • Fantasy: Broncos WRs gain value
  • Stats & Info: What Manning brings
  • Peyton Manning photo gallery

  Big sighs of relief: Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis no longer must worry about defending against a Manning-led 49ers offense. A healthy Manning would have made the 49ers even more formidable than they were while going 5-1 against the division last season. It's looking like the Seahawks will be the team in the division with the best shot at upgrading their quarterback situation.
• Harbaugh must take lead: The seemingly special bond between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and 2011 starter Alex Smith could need some repairing. That should not be too difficult if Harbaugh has been forthright with Smith throughout the process. The 49ers, like the Cardinals, will want to define their interest in Manning as a special case unrelated to their incumbent quarterback. Re-signing Smith should be a no-brainer now.
• Smith's only logical option. Smith has made it known he wants to continue playing for the 49ers. Hurt feelings suffered during negotiations and the Manning diversion should not be grounds for divorce. Unless Smith acts hastily out of anger, which seems unlikely given his temperament, the 49ers should now be able to re-sign Smith to a deal that gives them the flexibility to hand things over to Colin Kaepernick in the next couple years if Smith falters. The 49ers did lose some leverage, however, when Manning picked Denver over Tennessee. A deal with the Titans would have pushed Matt Hasselbeck onto the market.
• Forget about Tim Tebow. The Broncos wanted Manning not only because Manning is a great quarterback when healthy, but also because the organization was seeking a Tebow exit strategy. Manning's acquisition provides the perfect cover for Broncos executive John Elway, who has made clear his feelings that Tebow's playing style is not sustainable. I would not anticipate NFC West teams having interest in Tebow if the Broncos tried to trade him.
• Manning not on schedule. NFC West teams do not play the Broncos in 2012. They still face a lengthy list of talented quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Every NFC West team does face the Miami Dolphins, who lost out on Manning, did not sign Flynn and could have a tougher time signing Smith now that the 49ers have lost out on Manning.

It's a relief to have the Manning situation resolved. I was looking forward to the possibility of having him in the division, however, whether with Arizona or San Francisco.

Suzy Kolber and Chris Mortensen add some perspective to Calvin Johnson's historic contract; Tony Romo could have some competition at quarterback; and Frank Wycheck tries to sell Peyton Manning on the Titans.

So I was sitting here on Twitter, trolling for news, answering your questions and getting a kick out of the fact that Justin Tuck was watching (and tweeting about) the same "Big Bang Theory" rerun when it occurred to me that it was almost time to turn in and get some sleep. Before I did that, I just wanted to ask one question.

How was your day ...

Philadelphia Eagles?

"Surprising." You guys know I didn't think the Eagles intended to sign DeSean Jackson to a long-term contract, so when the news broke Wednesday afternoon that they had, I was stunned. It's a good deal for the Eagles, as almost all of the $15 million in guaranteed money is concentrated in the first two years and it saves them $6.6 million against this year's salary cap. And Jackson's happy because he's making a ton more than he did last season. The issue now is whether his production will rise along with his happiness. (And how long he'll stay happy, considering what other receivers are getting on the open market.) They signed Trent Cole to a four-year contract extension, and in the wake of the Jackson news the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that they were working on a new deal for running back LeSean McCoy.

The Eagles seem determined to take care of their own roster before dipping into the free-agent pool, so they're making little moves, too. Antonio Dixon signed his restricted free-agent tender, and Winston Justice got traded to the Colts in a deal that saw the teams swap sixth-round draft picks. That last was a salary dump, but it was one they needed to make. Guard Evan Mathis remains unsigned and is drawing interest elsewhere, but the Eagles still believe they have a good chance to bring him back.

One weird thing did happen. Late in the afternoon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy sent out a tweet in which he apologized to Bucs fans for being unable to lure free-agent linebacker Curtis Lofton to Tampa and said Lofton was going to sign with the Eagles. The Eagles quickly denied any contact with Lofton, and McCoy retracted his tweet. So it's tough to say what's going on there, but it bears watching. The Eagles need linebacker help, but the linebacker market is slow, so they can wait it out.

Dallas Cowboys?

"Outstanding." They got their top-choice cornerback, agreeing with Brandon Carr on a five-year, $50.1 million contract. They got their veteran, starter-quality backup quarterback, agreeing on a three-year deal with Kyle Orton. They added guard Mackenzy Bernadeau to their interior offensive line mix, where they needed (and still could use more) help. And they signed fullback Lawrence Vickers to replace Tony Fiammetta, who seems to want to go see what he can get on the market. According to ESPNDallas.com, they have visits scheduled in the coming days with free-agent safety Brodney Pool and free-agent guard Nate Livings, so they're still hard at work trying to fill needs. The names may not be the splashiest, but the Cowboys have been down those roads before, and this measured, focused, need-based approach looks like the right way for them to go. A lot of money for Carr, yes, but they desperately needed a top free-agent cornerback, and that's what they're going for this year.

Many Cowboys fans were upset to lose wide receiver Laurent Robinson, who came out of nowhere to catch 11 touchdown passes from Tony Romo in 2011. But the Cowboys were never going to pay him anything close to what the Jaguars ended up paying him ($32.5 million for five years), and they shouldn't have paid their No. 3 wide receiver that much. They were prepared to go without Robinson last year. He was a bonus, a lottery ticket that hit. They'll be fine with what they have at receiver, and they can fill in Robinson's spot the same way they did last year, when they sifted through a bunch of decent-looking candidates and came up with Robinson. Don't sweat that loss, Cowboys fans. The team has bigger worries and bigger needs.

New York Giants?

"A success." They flew former Cowboys tight end Martellus Bennett in late Tuesday night, and they signed him Wednesday to a one-year, $2.5 million contract. They obviously see something they like in Bennett and believe that the coaching staff and quarterback Eli Manning can bring the best out of him, and they targeted and got him. They also got him on a very low-risk deal that will allow them to go in a different direction if he disappoints and their injured tight ends are healthy enough to return at the end of the season. Cowboys fans seem sure he will disappoint, and he very well may. But he's only 25 and he's got a ton of physical ability, so the Giants think maybe they're getting a guy right before he really takes off. The Giants also retained backup quarterback David Carr, which they wanted to do. What they'll do next I do not know. They need offensive line help and could use a veteran running back to replace Brandon Jacobs, but they'll be patient and target specific guys they like, because that's the way they operate. It seems to work for them.

Washington Redskins?

"Quieter." After racing out of the free-agent gates and signing two wide receivers before the sun went down on Tuesday, the Redskins made very little news Wednesday. Their trade with the Rams for the No. 2 pick in the draft became official, and we learned that they will host former Giants cornerback Aaron Ross for a free-agent visit Thursday in the hopes of adding him to their cornerback mix. They still haven't locked up Eddie Royal, who seemed poised to become their third free-agent wide receiver signing last night, and he's on his way to talk to the Chargers. And they have a visit set up with safety Brandon Meriweather. But the most-asked question about the Redskins is where they stand with free-agent linebacker London Fletcher, who was called a "top priority" in December by Mike Shanahan but remains unsigned. It's possible that this is where the salary cap sanctions hurt the Redskins. Having lost $18 million in cap room this year (and $18 million next year) for violating the other owners' sense of spending propriety during the uncapped 2010 season, the Redskins might find a Fletcher signing trickier than, say, a Pierre Garcon signing. Garcon is 25, and they can spread out his contract and the resulting cap hit over five years. Fletcher is 36, and any deal with him is much more likely to be front-loaded. That doesn't mean they can't bring him back, but it could make it a little more difficult. Just a theory I heard from someone I talked to today.

My day was excellent, and I enjoyed spending it here and on Twitter with you. Much more to come Thursday and beyond.

Some teams ignore backup quarterback, often to their detriment. (See: 2011 Colts, Bears, et al) Other teams really, really really don't. The Dallas Cowboys fall into the latter group. They do not feel comfortable if they don't have a veteran backup who can step in and start an NFL game if Tony Romo goes down with an injury. That's why they put in a claim for Kyle Orton when he was waived by Denver during the 2011 season and that's why they have agreed to terms with Orton on a new three-year contract.

When Romo got hurt two years ago, the Cowboys were able to plug in Jon Kitna, a former NFL starter who retired this offseason, and operate their offense basically just as well as it operated under Romo. Kitna wasn't as good as Romo is, and neither is Orton, but given the number of weapons the Cowboys have on offense, they want their worst-case scenario to be a quarterback who won't get rattled by NFL pressure and can get the ball to the right people. Orton, who began each of the past two seasons as the Broncos' starting quarterback and lost his job in 2011 to the Tim Tebow phenomenon, fits the description. If he has to start a lot of games for the Cowboys, they're probably in trouble. But if he has to start one or two -- or finish a game in which Romo gets injured -- they won't have to worry whether he can handle the responsibility.

The other quarterback on the Cowboys' roster is Stephen McGee, who was their fourth-round draft pick three years ago and hasn't seen enough action to be counted on in the event that they need a starter.

Orton was also on the radar for the Washington Redskins, who are in the market for a backup to the rookie quarterback they plan to draft with the No. 2 overall pick in next month's draft. But the Cowboys got him instead. Now, they need to sign a defensive back. More on that later, I believe, as we continue to track what's going on with Brandon Carr.

You guys know I'm active on Twitter (@ESPN_NFCEast and, to a lesser extent, @DanGrazianoESPN). I'm there to answer whatever questions I can, and at times like these the activity is more intense than it is at other times of the year. So I'm on there in between blog posts to help out. You can ask questions, vent, call me names, whatever. I'm there for you.

Some of the questions I get on there become so frequent that they take on lives of their own and become worthy of their own posts. Such is the case, I feel, with the question of Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Laurent Robinson, who is making free-agent visits to places like Jacksonville and appears unlikely to return to Dallas.

To hear Cowboys fans on this topic, you'd think we were talking about the second coming of Jerry Rice. I mean, Robinson played very well for the Cowboys last year, and only three players in the league caught more touchdown passes, but I refuse to buy into the idea that replacing his production would become a major offseason priority for the Cowboys if and when he signs elsewhere.

Possible options for replacing Robinson include:

1. Throwing the ball to Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant more.

2. Finding a third wide receiver in the bargain bin, which is where they found Robinson last summer when no one else wanted him.

This isn't rocket science. Robinson became Tony Romo's favorite red zone target and ended up with 11 touchdown catches, but that doesn't mean Romo would be crippled in the red zone without him. Witten used to be his favorite red zone target, and there's no reason to think he can't be again. If they can keep Austin healthy and Bryant (still just 23 years old) continues his development, they won't need a No. 3 wide receiver to produce the way Robinson did. Robinson's production was a pleasant surprise, but it's not as though Romo and the Cowboys would have been lost without him.

The Cowboys need help on defense and on the offensive line. They're pretty well stocked at receiver. Falling in love with Robinson and overpaying him off of his first good season would be a free-agent gamble, and given their strengths and their needs, it's one the Cowboys would do well to let some other team make.