ESPN NFL

The San Francisco 49ers' NFC West rivals might as well start working on their divisional concession speeches.

That is because the 49ers, after one good season, suddenly tower over the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams by just about every meaningful on-field franchise marker.

That was my somewhat skeptical takeaway from the "NFL Future Power Rankings" projecting where teams are headed by 2015, using a weighted formula reflecting rosters, quarterbacks, drafts, front offices and coaching.

The 49ers, easily underrated while charging to a 13-3 record last season, appear overrated in relation to their division rivals by this ranking, in my view. Can we really say their front office blows away those for the other NFC West teams by an 8.5 to 5 margin across the board? A five-game cushion in the 2011 division standings says we can, but that will be a tough edge to maintain. Then again, last season did happen. It has to count for something, and the front office usually had the right answers.

"This category weighs each team's front office in terms of its ability to manage its roster and bring in new talent via free agency or trades," the methodology reads. "It also factors in a team's willingness to spend money, and a market's attraction to free agents. A 10 represents a team that has the ability to spend freely and obtain top-choice talent on a regular basis. A one represents a team that has little ability to spend, has no track record of bringing in quality free-agent talent or, worse, has spent big on free agents that have made little-to-no impact."

The 49ers hit big on Aldon Smith in the 2011 draft while finding outstanding free-agent value in Pro Bowl cornerback Carlos Rogers. They succeeded in keeping together their defense. CEO Jed York appears to have made the right move for a general manager even though fans were hardly chanting for Trent Baalke to assume the role. York and Baalke landed Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

On the flip side, the 49ers' front office has done less heavy lifting than the front offices for Seattle and St. Louis in particular. San Francisco stayed the course to a greater degree than those other teams, relying upon a new coaching staff to get more from Alex Smith and others. But the Rams remain in the early stages of a rebuild, while the Seahawks will need better on-field results to validate the high-impact moves they've made since Pete Carroll arrived in 2010. Seattle's unsettled fate at quarterback stands as another key variable.

Overall, the 49ers finished ahead of their division rivals in all five core categories except for one. They were second to St. Louis in projected quarterback strength. Having Sam Bradford gave the Rams 6.25 points out of 10 in that category, ahead of scores for Seattle (4.5) and Arizona (3.75).

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on how these teams are set up for the future. I suspect a 2008 projection would have expected more from the Cardinals in 2011.

As the piece freely admits, these projections cannot anticipate everything.

"But they do provide some interesting conclusions about what's truly important to succeeding on a perennial basis in the NFL, specifically the value of a franchise QB," the piece notes. "And while some teams may experience a down year, the squads at the top of this list are well suited for sustained success over the long term."

Note: Gary Horton, Matt Williamson, Trent Dilfer and Mel Kiper Jr. worked with Bill Polian in putting together these projections.

Yeah, sorry about the Vokle chat. Sometimes our technology just doesn't do what we want it to do. There are plans in the works to try again. I hope you'll give us another shot if we try next week.

Anyway, back to the blog. As a twist on the usual Power Rankings, we had a panel of ESPN experts put together something called the NFL Future Power Rankings , basically projecting how the Power Rankings will look three years from now. It's Insider, so you have to pay to read it and I can't give it all away to you here. But if you are interested, the piece explaining how they came to their conclusions is available to everyone and is here.

Here's how the NFC East teams fared, and partial explanations for why:

3. New York Giants

Trailing only the Packers and the Patriots, the Giants got a score of 81.13 out of a possible 100, with coaching, front office and quarterback their highest-scoring categories. Here's Trent Dilfer on the quarterback in particular:

He has the baby-brother look, but Eli Manning turns 32 this season, and since his 1-6 record as a rookie, has started all 16 games in seven straight seasons. He has had his INT issues, but is an elite passer when he gets comfortable with his targets. He has many good years ahead.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback was the only place where the Eagles didn't score high, as uncertainty about Michael Vick's age (32) and future in Philly pushed them down to a 5.75 in that category. They had an overall score of 74 out of 100, buoyed but very high marks in front office, draft and coaching. Mel Kiper on their drafting:

A remarkably good draft in 2012 could shore up the defense and make the Eagles Super Bowl contenders. If Vick has any health issues, is Nick Foles the next guy in line? You never know what they'll do at that spot. But they have a system, draft very well and, at least based on my board, maintain a really strong sense of value and how to maneuver.

14. Dallas Cowboys

The highest score the Cowboys got was their 7 in quarterback, and their overall score was 62.06 out of 100. Their lowest marks were for draft and front office, and this is Gary Horton on their roster:

Age is a concern. And unless they do a good job in free agency and the draft, the talent level will drop off in the next couple of years. They should remain fairly young at WR and RB, and they seem to be rebuilding their offensive line. Defensively, they are not very young and their best playmaker of the future will be rookie CB Morris Claiborne, but a lot of replacements are needed.

20. Washington Redskins

An overall score of 56.38 out of 100, with the highest mark their 6.75 in coaching. They gave them a 6.25 for quarterback, which is generous since their current starter has never played an NFL game. But the assumption is that he'll fit in well and that he has the talent to be a franchise quarterback. Dragging the Redskins' score down the most is the 4.75 for the current roster. Here's Horton on that:

Obviously, this future will be built around rookie QB Robert Griffin III. The challenge will be to surround him with talent on both sides of the ball with limited high draft picks. Washington doesn't have a lot of young, talented guys at the offensive skill positions. The Redskins tried to upgrade the passing game in free agency and TE Fred Davis is a solid player. On defense, age is a real problem and with the exception of young edge rushers Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, upgrades will be needed.

So like I said, Insider if you want to read it all. And remember, no one's saying this is definitely how it'll all turn out -- just the way it looks to those experts' eyes from here.

Trent Dilfer, Gary Horton, Mel Kiper Jr. and Matt Williamson got together and came up with an outstanding project that looks a few years down the road. Check out this Insider post in which they have NFL Future Power Rankings for all teams.

The rankings are based on what the panel projects teams will look like in the 2015 season. The panel used the following criteria -- roster, quarterback, draft, front office and coaching staff -- and weighed each in order of importance to come up with the rankings. You can see a more detailed explanation of the methodology here.

From an NFC South perspective, the rankings don’t look all that different than in recent years or what most people are projecting in 2012.

The panel says the New Orleans Saints, who have won two of the past three division titles, will be the division’s best team in 2015. The panel notes the bounty scandal and its punishments, but the consensus seems to be that the Saints can overcome that because there’s a strong nucleus in place, as well as a good coaching staff and front office. Horton notes the Saints have to build around guys like Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram in the future. I think it’s true that the Saints have to develop some more young stars in the next few years. But, as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback, the Saints should be a top-10 team.

After the Saints, there’s a bit of a surprise. Although the Saints and Falcons have been the class of the division in recent years, the panel doesn’t see that quite being the case in 2015. The Falcons are No. 13 and the Panthers are No. 12.

Let’s start with why the Panthers are viewed as a team on the rise. Dilfer sums it up well by saying quarterback Cam Newton has an incredibly high ceiling. In 2015, Newton will be just approaching that ceiling. There’s no doubt the future looks bright for Carolina, but the Panthers may have to replace long-time stars Jordan Gross and Steve Smith before too long.

I disagree with the panel slightly on the placement of the Falcons. I think Atlanta will be a top-10 team in 2015 and probably each year between now and then. I agree with the panel that the Falcons have some old players at several positions, but I think general manager Thomas Dimitroff gradually will address those issues. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay healthy and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon continues to emerge as a defensive star, I think the Falcons will be an annual playoff contender.

The Buccaneers are No. 19. While that ranking is last in the division, the Bucs have been in the 20s and 30s in a lot of recent rankings. The panel sounds optimistic about the Bucs in discussing the young talent and the new coaching staff. But there are a lot of unknowns. If quarterback Josh Freeman can get his career back on track and coach Greg Schiano can make the transition from college to the NFL, I think the Bucs have a real chance to jump up in the rankings when 2015 actually rolls around.

For those of you who keep track of such things, let it be known that ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer has made an about-face on the future of Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.

It was only a year ago when Dilfer said that poor mechanics would limit Cutler's career until he committed to fixing them. "He could be an elite player in this league, but he won't be until he dedicates himself to dealing with the basic things that will bring out and maximize his potential," Dilfer said. "They tend to show up, the laziness with his mechanics, the flaws show up, late in games, red zones, critical downs, tight games."

In this recent "QBs on the Clock" video, Dilfer named Cutler as an NFL quarterback most likely to step into elite status.

"I think Jay Cutler is going to blow up this year," Dilfer said. "I saw so much last year. I think once I saw it in person, being at 'Monday Night Football.' Watching his demeanor. The body language changed. The toughness. The talent has always been there. I saw him pay more attention to detail."

Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. chose Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, pointing out: "I've loved him since high school."

I realize you are split on the value of outside analysis, but I think we can agree we found out how good Cutler can be last season. Dilfer might have said it with more flamboyance, but especially after the acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall, I expect many outside analysts to hop on the Cutler bandwagon in the coming months.

Tying up loose ends on a Tuesday that began with the NFL and Nike unveiling new uniforms for the 2012 season:

• Paul Lukas' column affirms that Seattle was the only team to completely redesign its uniforms. But he notes that pants for the San Francisco 49ers and some other teams might appear less metallic than in the past.
• Rules prevent teams from redesigning their uniforms more frequently than every five seasons. The 49ers last redesigned their uniforms in April 2009. The Arizona Cardinals redesigned theirs in 2005. The Rams overhauled their uniforms in 2000.
• The Rams have ditched their gold pants, according to Jim Thomas.
• The Detroit Lions' equipment manager, Tim O'Neil, said the new uniforms are especially snug-fitting, which could make it tougher opponents to grab onto jerseys. ESPN's Trent Dilfer and Marcellus Wiley touched on that aspect in the video above. O'Neill: "If we hung a jersey on a hanger, it would look like a medium T-shirt."

All for now. Enjoy your Tuesday night.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting the Denver Broncos will be one of the teams that inquire about Peyton Manning, who is now free to sign with any club.

Denver’s interest makes sense. We wrote Tuesday that we thought the Broncos could be one of the teams to make a play for Manning. ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer said Tuesday he believes Denver, along with Arizona, makes the most sense for Manning.

The fact that the Broncos are going to inquire about Manning doesn’t mean they’ll be big players, but it does show the team has some interest in Manning. Let’s look at some of the factors:

Tim Tebow: The Broncos have said Tebow will go to training camp as the starter. I don’t think their interest in Manning is an indication the Broncos are searching for a reason to get out of their commitment to Tebow. The opportunity to sign Manning is a unique one. I think Manning is one of the few quarterbacks Denver could bring in as its starter this season that wouldn’t cause fan backlash. Everyone would have to understand the reason why he is being brought in. However, if Denver’s pursuit of Manning doesn’t go anywhere, I think the Broncos will still give Tebow this season to prove himself.

Broncos VP John Elway: I knew Elway would be tempted to pursue Manning. Both are legendary quarterbacks. Elway owes it to himself to gauge Manning’s interest in being a Bronco.

Coach John Fox: Fox loves veteran quarterbacks, and he has a very outgoing personality. Players love working for him and he runs a player-friendly show. The defensive specialist would give Manning the keys to the offense.

Supporting cast: Manning could make a major difference on this team. He would benefit from the team's strong running game and the Broncos do have some young receivers and an improving defense. The Broncos would still have to add a receiver or two and a tight end in addition to their other needs. They have room under the salary cap to get better. I don’t think this roster would be a deterrent for Manning.

It’s Peyton Manning season.

The much anticipated open season on arguably the best player ever to play in the NFL is about to commence. ESPN’s Chris Mortensen is reporting the Colts and Manning will appear at a news conference Wednesday to announce that he will be cut. Manning -- who missed all of last season with a neck injury --plans to continue playing. He will be the premier free agent available.

How does this relate to the AFC West?

Manning could very well end up a Kansas City Chief or a Denver Bronco.

Friday, I looked at the reasons why Manning would fit in Kansas City. Meanwhile, in an Insider piece Tuesday, Chris Sprow looks at what type of impact Manning would have in Kansas City. At the combine, Kansas City coach Romeo Crennel indicated the Chiefs would be apt to consider signing Manning if he became available. Well, he will be available by week’s end.

I also wouldn’t be shocked if Denver at least thinks about adding Manning. Denver’s top decision maker is legendary quarterback John Elway. He won his two Super Bowls at the age of 37 and 38. Manning turns 36 in 18 days.

Plus, Manning would be one of the few quarterbacks Denver could add that would likely make the fan base understand why the team would want to replace Tim Tebow, who, but the way, could season under Manning’s tutelage. Like Kansas City, Denver has an improving roster and Denver coach John Fox has always been partial to veteran quarterbacks.

Moments ago on ‘SportsCenter’, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer said he thinks Denver and Arizona are the best fits for Manning. He noted Elway’s presence as a positive factor for Manning.

Of course, it’s all fodder at this point. However, expect the Manning speculation to hit full tilt now that he is officially going to be a former Colt.

In order for the Ravens to reach the Super Bowl, Joe Flacco has to take them there.

He has to strong-arm Baltimore to victory over New England in Sunday's AFC championship game because that's how you beat the Patriots this season. New England has lost three games this season, and every time, the quarterback has been the deciding factor. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning exploited the AFC's worst defense by throwing for 984 yards (an average of 328 yard passing) and a total of six touchdowns.

So it's time for Flacco to step in the playoffs. It's time for Flacco to prove he deserves that new contract. It's time for Flacco to squash his critics as well as a critical teammate.

A feisty Flacco entered the playoffs this season, saying if the Ravens win the Super Bowl, "I'll have nothing to do with why we won, according to you guys."

On Sunday, let's take the chip off the shoulder and put the team on his back -- because that's exactly how this game will play out.

Tom Brady and the Patriots are averaging 32.8 points per game. That means scoring three points in the final three quarters won't cut it in this playoff game.

New England will direct its focus on stopping running back Ray Rice, especially after Bill Belichick plays that 83-yard touchdown run from two years ago about 100 times this week. That means the Patriots are going to force Flacco to beat them.

"We're going to have to make sure we prepare well all week and bring our A-game up there," Flacco said.

There's no question that Flacco is a winner. His 44 victories are the most ever by an NFL starting quarterback in his first four seasons. He's also the only quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first four years.

But there's been very few "A-games" when it comes to the postseason. In eight playoff games, Flacco has completed 53 percent of passes and has averaged 153.3 yards passing. He's thrown six touchdowns and seven interceptions for a quarterback rating of 31.5.

In last Sunday's 20-13 victory over Houston, Flacco completed 14 of 27 passes (51.9 percent) for 176 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It wasn't just the media who criticized Flacco after this performance. Ravens safety Ed Reed said Flacco "was kind of rattled a little bit" Sunday.



“They had a lot of guys in the box on him and they were giving it to him. I think a couple of times he needed to get rid of the ball. It just didn’t look like he had a hold on the offense,” Reed told SiriusXM satellite radio Monday. “I don’t know how much of [that was] the play calling … but it just didn’t look like he had a hold on the offense, you know, of times past."

Reed added, "It was just kind of like they [were] telling him [what] to do -- throw the ball or get it here, you know, get it to certain guys.”

Reed believes Flacco needs to improve his play for the Ravens to win at New England.

“He can’t play like that,” Reed said.

It's never a good sign when a teammate is talking about his quarterback this way. Just ask Mark Sanchez.

The Ravens are entering a crucial time, and this goes beyond the current postseason. Baltimore is going to have to make a decision on its level of commitment to Flacco. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti said last March that he expects to sign Flacco to a long-term contract extension sometime in 2012. Flacco later responded that he doesn’t think he should have to wait that long.

The problem is, Flacco's statistics say he regressed this season. He completed a career-worst 57.6 percent of his passes. His touchdowns went down, from 25 in 2010 to 20 this season. His interceptions went up, from 10 to 12.

Asked whether it's difficult to measure Flacco's impact by statistics, coach John Harbaugh said, "I've done that many times, and I don't really feel like running down all those things right now. I can just tell you in this last game, he won, and his quarterback rating was 97. That's a winning performance, and Joe – I told him [Sunday] night – I thought he played very, very well. In a lot of situations in this game when he was under duress, he handled himself really well. There were plenty of things he'd like to have back and could have done better, and he'd be the first to tell you that. So, you just try to get better, you try to improve and you try to play winning football, no matter what position you play. And that's what we value around here."

The path to this season's playoffs wasn't an easy one for Flacco, who finished 15th in QBR for a reason. He played 12 games against defenses ranked in the top 10, throwing 14 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.

There's no such excuse when it comes to taking on the Patriots defense. New England ranked 31st in yards allowed in the regular season and gave up the most passing yards in the AFC.

"A quarterback has to do what his team needs him to do to win, and Joe has done that," Belichick said of Flacco. "I don’t know how to improve much on 11-5 and 12-4, and they just keep doing it. He's been a solid guy since his rookie year in terms of managing the game and using the clock and making good decisions and those types of things."

A game manager isn't going to get the Ravens past the Patriots on Sunday. Baltimore needs Flacco to play like Brady, not Trent Dilfer.

New England gave up the most 20-yard passes in the NFL this season — 79, which was eight more than any other defense. Patriots cornerback Devin McCourty has allowed 1,115 yards and six touchdowns this season (according to Stats LLC), and cornerback Kyle Arrington has given up 827 yards and five touchdowns.

It's clear that Flacco has to attack a vulnerable Patriots secondary and help out a Ravens defense facing Brady, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski.

The stage is yours, Joe Flacco.

You might have noticed that ESPN's Skip Bayless occasionally invites debate by taking hard stands on issues relating to sports.

His position recently: Jim Harbaugh deserves 100 percent of the credit for the San Francisco 49ers' improvement from 6-10 to 14-3.

Harbaugh obviously has played a leading role in the turnaround, but 100 percent? Purely for entertainment, imagine for a moment that a leading academic from a university sports management program were advocating the same position in even tones.

ESPN's Trent Dilfer had this to say during his latest conversation with Scott Van Pelt: "In the NFL, everybody wants to give all the credit to one person, and the Niners' story is so much different. There is so much credit to be spread out."

Dilfer gives Harbaugh significant credit for his approach with Alex Smith -- specifically, for working with Smith from a base of affirmation. That audio is here. Dilfer also credits general manager Trent Baalke, who he promotes as the NFL's clear executive of the year.

The video featuring Bayless is below.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. Secondary play in Chicago and Minnesota: Between the two of them, the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings have maybe one or two defensive backs who should be considered 2012 starters heading into the offseason. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman qualifies, and perhaps Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will as well if he returns healthy from a fractured collarbone. Otherwise, the Bears and Vikings need a serious overhaul to their defensive backfields. Both teams tried season-long rotations at safety, neither of which led to any personnel conclusions, and cornerback play outside of Tillman has been atrocious for both teams. It will probably be a multiyear process for these franchises to rebuild these positions. With Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler in this division, they better hurry.

2. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings quarterback: We all remember ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer's harsh criticism of Ponder shortly after the draft. In brief, Dilfer said Ponder looks the part of an NFL quarterback but quickly falls from his comfort zone and loses accuracy under pressure. Dilfer softened some of that analysis after Ponder's relatively strong debut, but we should note that Ponder has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks against extra pass-rushers this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he is completing about 39 percent of his passes when opponents send five or more pass-rushers. The only player with less success against the blitz? Denver Broncos quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. It's not necessarily a warning sign if a rookie doesn't perform well under pressure, but to this point Ponder's performance hasn't veered much from Dilfer's original analysis.

3. Marion Barber, Bears running back: Barber's mental errors in a loss earlier this month to the Broncos, and his inability to keep his troublesome calf healthy, would seem to spell the end of his short tenure with the Bears. Kahlil Bell's hard-charging 123-yard performance Sunday night offers the Bears a much younger option for the role of backing up starter Matt Forte. It was a nice run, as they say.

RISING

1. Home-field advantage: The Packers have a quirky history when it comes to playing at home in the playoffs. In the big picture, the state of Wisconsin has provided one of the best home-field advantages in professional sports. The Packers are 15-3 all-time at home in the playoffs, including games played in Milwaukee. But those three losses have come in their past five playoff games at home: In 2003 to the Atlanta Falcons, in 2004 to the Vikings and 2007 to the New York Giants. One of the two victories, meanwhile, came in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, at least, opponents haven't been intimidated by playing at Lambeau Field.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions tight end: A significant debate erupted in 2009 when the Lions used the No. 20 overall pick to draft Pettigrew, passing up offensive lineman Michael Oher and receiver Percy Harvin, among others. But the Lions insisted that a multi-faceted tight end was critical to their offense, and they have followed through by utilizing Pettigrew as much as any team in the NFL. The Lions have used him as an extension of their running game, and although he is averaging a modest 8.7 yards per reception, his total of 76 catches ranks third among tight ends. By all accounts, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker as well. The Lions have gotten by this far with Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus as their tackles, minimizing the need for Oher. And while Harvin would have been a nice addition, the Lions have found value by signing veteran Nate Burleson and using a second-round pick to draft Titus Young.

3. T.J. Lang, Green Bay Packers offensive lineman: When the season began, how many people would have chosen Lang as the Packers' most valuable offensive lineman? Not me. Lang had been an inconsistent starter and player who couldn't find a position and was behind a rookie on the depth chart when the season began. But Lang outplayed first-round pick Derek Sherrod in camp to win the left guard job and has provided a seamless transition from departed starter Daryn Colledge. And when the Packers needed someone to jump over to right tackle after injuries to Bryan Bulaga and Sherrod, Lang successfully made the move. On Sunday night, at least, he held his own against Bears pass-rushers Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Center Scott Wells might be the Packers' best offensive lineman this season, but not many left guards could jump out to right tackle as well as Lang appeared to do Sunday night.

SAN FRANCISCO -- A blown transformer outside Candlestick Park knocked out power to the stadium roughly 10 minutes before the Monday night kickoff between the San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The stadium went pitch black immediately. Backup generators soon restored minimal stadium lighting, but conditions were far too dark for a football game. A team official, Bob Lange, then told reporters in the pressbox that city engineers expected to have power restored within 5-10 minutes.

Lights inside the pressbox have been restored. Signage inside the stadium appears lit. Minimal lamppost lighting is allowing for some visibility of the field from high above. The color guard has not moved and remains standing near midfield, awaiting the national anthem. Lights on the "SportsCenter" set have been restored, making analyst Trent Dilfer's dome stand out like a beacon.

Internet service in the pressbox, notoriously spotty by NFL standards, continued working throughout the outage.

More details as we get them.

Just how long can this Denver Broncos circus act last?

It is officially time to wonder what kind of damage the Broncos could administer if they actually get into the playoffs -- and how they match up against the best teams in the AFC.

After going 7-1 with Tim Tebow as the quarterback and riding a six-game winning streak (including the past four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter, only the second time in history that has happened), the Broncos are on pace to win the AFC West and be the No. 4 seed. Denver -- which has a 78.8-percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN.com's Insider Playoff Predictor -- leads Oakland by one game in the AFC West. If Denver beats Kansas City at home in Week 17, the Raiders will have to finish with a better record than the Broncos to win the division because of tiebreakers.

The Broncos will face their greatest challenge of the Tebow run Sunday, when they host 10-3 New England. In the most anticipated game of Week 15, we stand to find out a lot about the Broncos, who are winning with a wicked combination of Tebow’s late brilliance, the league’s best running attack, timely, stiff defense and clutch special-teams play, all guided by first-year coach John Fox and his staff in one of the best coaching runs in the NFL this season.

Denver doesn’t necessarily have to win this game to win the division, but if the Broncos can stick with the Patriots, it could send quite a message about their readiness for January football. Because Denver is winning with complete football, it is taking on the look of a team no one wants to see on the same side of the playoff bracket.

“My head says it will end this week, but my heart says they have a real shot,” Gary Horton of Scouts Inc. said. “I think it’s going to end every week, and then it just goes on. I talk to a lot of smart football people every day and no one has any answers for it. But we’re buying in. I think this game against New England should be the end, but I can also see Denver pulling it off.”

Part of the phenomenon that has been the Broncos’ season is the evolution of expectations for them. After a 45-10 drubbing by Detroit on Oct. 30 in Tebow’s second start, the Broncos were 2-5 and had the look of a team that would be picking in the top five and looking for a new quarterback in the offseason. Analysts gave the Broncos no chance. And they weren’t alone: I remember talking to several people in the Broncos’ organization that day, players included, and despair hovered over the team.

Since that day, however, the Broncos have mesmerized the league and caused several analysts to change their tune. ESPN analysts and previous Denver skeptics such as Merril Hoge, Steve Young and Trent Dilfer all said on the air this week that they are buying into what Tebow and his teammates are doing. When asked on ESPN this week if he could see Denver ending up in the Super Bowl in less than two months, analyst and former NFL head coach Herm Edwards responded this way: “I can’t say no."

Beyond the comebacks, the Broncos are answering a lot of questions. Against Oakland (where they won 38-24) and Minnesota (Denver won 35-32), they proved they can outscore teams. Against Chicago, Denver proved it can win when Tebow has to throw 40 times. And Denver is 5-0 on the road with Tebow as the starter. What might make Denver tough to beat in the playoffs is that it is playing at high level in all areas, as this ESPN Stats & Information post explains.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he is not taking the Broncos lightly going into Sunday’s game.

“They’re a good football team and they’re playing great,” Belichick told reporters this week. “They’re well-coached; solid team. Defensively they do a lot of things well. They run well. They have good pass-rushers, cover well. They’ve made a lot of big plays, third-down stops, short yardage, goal line, red area, turnovers. They’ve made them all at the right times. They’re real good on special teams, good coverage team, good kickers and good returners. Offensively they do a good job of running the ball, getting it down the field. They have a lot of long passes. Again, they’ve made the big plays when they had to in critical situations at the end of the game, fourth quarter, overtime, third down, all those kind of things. They’re at the top of their game.”

How Denver hangs with New England should provide some gauge of its playoff hopes. But what about against other AFC big hitters -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston?

“It’s like the Patriots, I don’t like their chances,” Horton said. “But then again, I do like their chances because of what the Broncos have done in the past six weeks. I think Denver’s strategy in every game will be to keep it low.”

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. doesn’t think Tebow could win in the playoffs against the Ravens, Steelers or Texans.

“I can’t say I see Tebow doing well at all against any of these three defenses,” Williamson said.

Haven’t we been saying that for weeks?

“I’m dumbfounded," Horton said. “But I’m not going to underestimate Denver anymore. Maybe they won’t do anything if they get to the playoffs, but did you ever think we’d even be talking about them having a chance at the playoffs this late in the season?”

There is one man on the planet who could solve everything that is wrong with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

One man who, with the simple nod of his head, would sell out Raymond James Stadium instantly, stop the losing, put an end to just about all the trouble off the field and give the Bucs credibility and respectability with their fans and across the league.

His name is Tony Dungy.

Let me be clear: I’m not saying it will happen. Raheem Morris is still coaching the Bucs, and the team already has picked up his contract option for 2012. But the Bucs are on a six-game losing streak and seem to be in total chaos. Dungy seems happy away from coaching and may not ever want to get back into the business.

I’m not saying the Glazer family, which owns the Buccaneers, has decided to fire Morris. And if that decision does come, I’m not saying the Glazers would pursue Dungy.

I’m simply saying I believe the Glazers should make a run at Dungy, who coached the team from 1996 to 2001.

Go after Dungy with an open checkbook and promise that never again will he be ordered to fire Mike Shula (in Hawaii) or any other assistant.

Maybe Dungy simply shrugs off any overture and stays with his broadcasting career and ministry work. But maybe, just maybe, Dungy would be tempted.

I ran the scenario by three people who worked closely with Dungy at one time or another. None of them knows whether Dungy wants to coach again. But all three agree that if there is one coaching job that might tempt him, it would be Tampa Bay. Dungy lives in the Tampa area.

I used to think that there was no way Dungy would even want to work for the Bucs again. The Glazers fired him and Dungy is a fierce competitor. He can be stubborn and, although he comes across as very humble, Dungy has a deep streak of pride.

Would his principles allow him to go back to work for people who fired him?

They just might. If the Glazers came begging, Dungy might feel he has the upper hand, and that’s important to a man with his pride. But Dungy’s not an egomaniac who would want to handle every personnel matter. General manager Mark Dominik appears to be in the good graces of ownership, and he’s got three years remaining on his contract. Dominik is following a plan of building through the draft, which is pretty similar to the route Dungy took the first time he was with the Bucs.

Take some of the money that’s being saved by not signing free agents and wave it in front of Dungy. It could pay huge dividends immediately and down the road.

Hire Dungy and, bad economy or not, there will once again be a waiting list for season tickets. Dungy is a beloved figure in Tampa Bay, and fans who never warmed up to Morris and his young team (and grew tired of Jon Gruden and his failure to put together a consistent winner after winning a Super Bowl with Dungy’s team) would be ecstatic if the best coach in franchise history came back.

Dungy would clean up a locker room that has a lot of guys who have had off-field troubles. Dungy’s not going to walk into One Buccaneer Place and tell Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson to hit the road. He believes in second chances (see his extensive work with Michael Vick). He would lay down the law with Talib, Jackson and everyone else in the locker room. He’d tell them they have to toe his line, which is located in a completely different place than Morris’ line, and instantly would cut them if they ever got in trouble again. Any player who has played for Dungy will tell you the last thing they ever wanted was to let him down.

That would translate into discipline on the field -- something the Bucs have lacked during the Morris years or even in Gruden’s tenure.

Dungy is a defensive guru. He could fix Tampa Bay’s defense, which already has lots of draft picks and money invested in the front four.

In his previous stint with the Bucs, the only two knocks on Dungy were that he couldn’t win “the big one’’ and he never found a franchise quarterback.

But Dungy dispelled all that when he went to Indianapolis. He won a Super Bowl there. Dungy also inherited Peyton Manning, who was a bit more gifted than Trent Dilfer and Shaun King. Dungy didn’t bring his boring offense to Indianapolis. He adjusted and let Manning do what he does best.

That’s another thing that could make a return to the Bucs attractive to Dungy. The Bucs have all sorts of flaws, but the one positive thing they have going for them is they have a franchise quarterback in Josh Freeman. Yeah, I know Freeman’s not having a good season, but he is a big-time talent.

Give Freeman a good supporting cast and some stable coaching, and the Bucs are winners. If Dungy were to take the job, he might be wise to keep offensive coordinator Greg Olson or quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt or both. Freeman likes them both, and some continuity would help his development.

But Dungy wouldn’t have much trouble putting together a strong staff. In all likelihood, Indianapolis is going to have a coaching change. That means a bunch of coaches who once worked for Dungy would be available. Heck, Dungy might even be able to pry Monte Kiffin away from his son, Lane, and the University of Southern California. Kiffin decided to leave the Bucs near the end of Gruden’s time. Kiffin and Gruden got along fine, but I don’t think they ever had the strong bond Dungy shared with Kiffin.

As the Bucs have struggled to sell tickets and try to get their fans to understand why they’re building almost exclusively through the draft, team officials have said they want to give fans a team they can love again.

They haven’t made any progress in that area this season. There’s one easy way to get fans to love the Bucs again: Go out and hire the coach who made them lovable in the first place -- if he'll take the job.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 11 (remember, the New Orleans Saints have a bye):

Crunch time: It would be a very long shot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go into Lambeau Field and defeat the Packers. But I’m going to be keeping a close eye on this one for reasons other than the final score. I want to see if the Bucs show effort in this one. In last week’s loss to Houston, a lack of effort was a serious problem. There’s been a lot of emphasis around One Buccaneer Place this week on getting a better effort. I’m real curious to see if that happens. If it doesn’t, coach Raheem Morris officially could move onto the hot seat. When a team isn’t giving much effort in the second half of a season, ownership -- and the rest of the world -- will look at that as a reflection on the coach.

Running away:The Bucs have started slowly on offense pretty much all season and have had a tendency to fall behind early. That’s become an even bigger problem in the current three-game losing streak. The Bucs have been quick to abandon the run after falling behind. In the past three games, they’ve averaged just seven running plays in the second half. When that happens, quarterback Josh Freeman is placed in a tough spot. Freeman, who only threw six interceptions last season, already has thrown 13 this season. That leads the NFC and is second in the NFL. The last Tampa Bay quarterback to have 13 interceptions through the first nine games of a season was Trent Dilfer back in 1996.

Road woes: The Carolina Panthers have lost their past 11 road games. That ties them for the second-longest road losing streak in the league since 2006 and it’s the longest active streak in the NFL. The only longer streak was by the Lions, who lost 26 straight road games from 2007 to 2010.

Home woes:The Falcons were dominant in the Georgia Dome in the first three years of coach Mike Smith’s tenure. But they’re 2-2 at home this season. A loss to Tennessee on Sunday would give the Falcons more home losses than they’ve had in any season since Smith took over. But it’s not like the Georgia Dome has suddenly become a friendly place for visiting teams. It was about as loud as I’ve ever heard it last Sunday. People who say the Falcons are struggling at home need to remember their two losses have been to the Packers and Saints.

Stay in your lane: The Atlanta linebackers are going to be a key in Sunday’s matchup. They need to keep Chris Johnson from turning the corner. After a very slow start, Johnson has come on the past two games. Through Week 8, he was averaging just 2.5 yards per carry when running outside the tackles. In the past two games, he’s averaged 5.7 yards when running to the outside.

A game that gave the Kansas City Chiefs serious life for the rest of the 2011 season was a microcosm of the early season.

“Guys on the sideline we saying ‘it ain’t over til it’s over. Keep playing and keep digging in, because you don’t know what is going to happen,'” Kansas City coach Todd Haley said Monday night. “We’ve got some fighters.”

Haley was answering a question about the late fumble by San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers that took a victory out of the Chargers hands and enabled the Chiefs to come back and win in overtime, forcing a three-way tie with the Chargers and Raiders for first place in the AFC West. In truth, Haley was speaking about the season and not just one game.

There is no doubting these Kansas City Chiefs are fighters. The Chiefs enter November after being one of the stories of the NFL in October, and they are living proof a devastating start doesn’t necessarily scuttle an entire NFL season. Their unlikely 23-20 overtime win over San Diego in Week 8 was the Chiefs' fourth straight win after starting 0-3.

It wasn’t just that the Chiefs entered October winless; they looked in as worse shape as any team in the NFL.

They were outscored 89-10 in their first two games. They were ranked No. 32 in ESPN.com’s NFL Power Rankings in Week 4. They were considered a prime contender to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. There were reports Haley was on the verge of being fired and they lost running back Jamaal Charles, safety Eric Berry and tight end Tony Moeaki -- who are all among the organization’s top five players -- to season-ending knee injuries in a span two weeks in September.

A surprise AFC West winner in 2010 at 10-6 -- after it won a total of 10 games spanning 2008-10 -- Kansas City looked as if it was going to go back to being a bottom-feeder.

Now, though, the talk is of a potential back-to-back division title. ESPN.com’s current playoff predictor believes the Chiefs will emerge from the AFC West scrum (this is the first time since 1989 that there's a three-way tie between three teams in a division) and will win the division. The Chiefs are the first team in the NFL to win four straight games after starting 0-3 since the 2000 Pittsburgh Steelers.

There is a strong chance the Chiefs will further move away from starting 0-3. Kansas City hosts Miami (0-7) on Sunday and it hosts Denver (2-5) in Week 10. Yes, it would be an upset if the Chiefs aren’t 6-3 in nine days. The Chiefs will need to stockpile wins when they can. It has one of the toughest schedules in the NFL from Weeks 11-15 beginning with a Monday night game at New England. It then hosts Pittsburgh, plays at Chicago and at the Jets and then hosts the Packers before hosting Oakland on Christmas Eve and finishing the regular season on New Year’s Day in Denver.

Don’t expect the Chiefs to fret about any part of the final nine-game stretch. Their start to this season simply taught them to take it one game at a time.

“We know everybody wrote us off at 0-3,” said linebacker Andy Studebaker, who recovered Rivers’ fateful fumble Monday night. “We just kept our course and we just were focused on not letting the season get away from us. And now look at us.”

There are all kinds of theories why the Chiefs have turned around their season. Some credit the beanbag game Haley (who has to be considered a Coach of the Year candidate) put in the locker room to create team unity. Some believe in the power of Haley’s scruffy beard that will not kiss a razor until the Chiefs lose again.

At the risk of ruining a good story, the Chiefs stopped losing and began winning because they started playing much better on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs were minus-6 in turnover differential in the first three games. They have been plus-5 since. Their yards per game differential since the losing streak ended has been 100-plus yards. In the first three games, the Chiefs’ points differential was minus-82. In the past four games, it’s been plus-40.

The Chiefs went back to trusting their running game in Week 4 after the shock of losing Charles in Week 2 wore off. Kansas City led the NFL in rushing last year and Charles had 1,467 yards. Since Week 4, the Chiefs are leading the NFL in rushing attempts per game and former practice squad player Jackie Battle has emerged as a solid lead rusher.

After Monday night’s game, ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer lauded the Chiefs for sticking to “their convictions” after the key injuries and 0-3 start. Dilfer expects the Chiefs to stick around for the rest of the season because they stay true to their plan and there is belief in the coaching staff by the players.

The defense seems to get timelier every week, and with the emergence of first-round pick Jon Baldwin (he was outstanding against San Diego, catching five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown), steady quarterback Matt Cassel has a strong receiving trio in Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston and Baldwin.

Despite the losses of Charles, Berry and Moeaki, this team has the same look of an up-and-coming contender it had last year.

“We made some mistakes, everybody, coaches and players alike, but we were able to overcome it by sticking together and not giving up,” Haley said of the win over San Diego, but really talking about the season. “I think it will continue to serve us well going forward.”