ESPN College Football

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

It's Friday.

'Nuff said.

Notes please.

Bubba Bear from Hayward, Calif., writes: In my anticipation of the season, I've been poring over Cal's stats from 2008. As you know, Call had a poor 3rd down conversion rate (29%). Check this out. They had a better 2nd down conversion rate (33%). How weird is that? Is that all play calling? Playing fast and loose on 2nd down, conservative and predictable on 3rd? It sure felt that way.

Ted Miller: Much like Berkeley statistics professor Philip Stark, I specialize inference statistical problems, primarily in physical science. I am especially interested in confidence procedures tailored for specific goals and in quantifying the uncertainty in inferences that rely on numerical models of complex physical systems.

So I can't help you here without more information.

I love you Cal people. I get at least one note like this a week. I suggest you guys either subscribe here. Or apply for a job.

OK. I'm overstating. The information you're giving me is actually not that surprising based on Cal's poor performance in the passing game last year.

Would you believe the Bears ranked ninth in the Pac-10 in completion percentage (52.6 percent)? That's worse than Stanford and Washington State. Ouch.

Second down is typically a less predictable call than third down. Third down is a passing down. Cal didn't pass well last year. And when a defense sits on the pass? Well, you would think that made things harder for quarterbacks who aren't terribly accurate.

Jason from Portland writes: Ted, over the past 3 seasons the Beavers have a 2-1 record against USC, Cal, and Oregon each. They have finished ranked in the top 25 in each of those 3 years and have won all of their bowl games. They also just sent six players to the NFL in this last draft. However, whenever you read a team possibly knocking off the Trojans this year it always is just about either Cal or Oregon. I don't understand why people continue to dismiss this program as "overachieving". How many more wins, top 25 finishes, or producing of all-conference/NFL players does Mike Riley need before people start realizing this is a legit top 25 program year-in and year-out in this country not just "the little engine that could"?

Ted Miller: It's actually seven players who were drafted this past spring.

You make a fair point.

Yet, fair or unfair, there are a handful of reasons.

• Oregon State is a small-stadium, small-market team, which limits its national attention. Don't take that wrong. It just means folks -- including media -- are ignorant when assessing the Beavers. In defense of the media, how many perennial top-25 teams play in stadiums that seat less than 50,000? It's hard for a lot of folks to wrap their minds around the idea of the Beavers being a perennial top-25 team.
• The performance in the Pac-10 has been impressive. But the slow starts -- three 2-3 starts in a row -- hurt. It means the Beavers fall off the radar -- and out of the rankings -- for half the season or more before climbing back. AP voters review conference standings in late November and go, "Wow, I didn't know Oregon State had won eight games!"
• Along with those 2-3 starts: The Beavers haven't distinguished themselves in nonconference play, posting blowout defeats in each of the last four seasons (45-14, Penn State; 34-7, Cincinnati; 42-14, Boise State; 63-27, Louisville).
• Moreover, Oregon State hasn't had that "holy cow!" team that wins nine or 10 games one season and then welcomes back a bunch of starters. Last year, replacing the entire front-seven on defense was a legit question. This year, there are again legit questions on defense, not to mention the offensive line. If Oregon State had 17 starters back -- instead of 11 -- as Cal does, it would be ranked toward the top of the preseason polls.
• As for knocking off the Trojans, keep in mind that despite all the success -- and wins over USC -- the Beavers last finished in the top-two in the conference in 2000 (last year's "tie" with the Ducks is a technicality, canceled by the head-to-head meeting and overall record). The Beavers have not played in the Holiday Bowl.

Now, my take is sentiments are changing on this. Despite significant personnel losses, the Beavers were picked fourth in the Pac-10's preseason media poll. Moreover, they were ranked 25th in the preseason coaches poll.

Jake from Honolulu writes: With the Big Ten having such a weak Non-Conference schedule, and the Pac 10 having such a difficult one, which team has more of a conference-strength image to lose in the USC-OSU showdown.

Ted Miller: Game is much bigger for Ohio State and the Big Ten. It's not even close.

Ohio State is defending its home turf. It doesn't want the Trojans dancing in the Horseshoe.

Moreover, while both teams took significant personnel hits, USC lost more and therefore is in more of a "rebuilding" mode -- at least as far as that term ever applies to the Trojans.

As for the Big Ten, it needs a victory over a marquee opponent after throwing up on itself in recent BCS bowl games.

Jon from Tumalo, Ore., writes: Here they go again:Matt Hayes in The Sporting News argues USC would not be that competitive in the SEC!He totally negates SC's 4-0 slate against Auburn and Arkansas saying these 2 are not representative of the conference!Auburn was highly rated when SC went into Auburn with a new QB and shut out the Tigers.The 2nd year SC killed Arkansas, this time in Fayetteville, Arkansas won the SEC west and lost a close champ game to FL because of a muffed punt!My question: How do you think SC would do in the SEC?With 21 players drafted in the past 2 years it's not as if SC would have a talent disparity.The BcS hegemony continues.

Ted Miller: Matt is a highly respected college football writer and a good dude.

I will take issue with this line: "The one overriding factor still in question for all those wonderful USC teams: They played one fast, athletic and nasty defense in a big bowl game (Texas) -- and lost."

True.

But USC gained 574 yards against that Longhorns defense. And had four consecutive second-half touchdown drives, one of the most extraordinary shows of offensive force I've ever seen against a quality defense.

The best show of offensive force I've seen being Vince Young that evening.

USC averaged 580 yards of total offense against all of those "other" defenses.

As for how USC would have done in the SEC? It would have won the SEC title in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008.

That's my opinion and what you'd probably get if you talked to folks who set lines in Las Vegas or NFL scouts. Some might argue for 2002 and against 2007.

I agree with Hayes that USC would not be favored to win the SEC this year.

Sean from Tampa writes: I was curious about Coach Tedford extremely limiting media access on top of already cutting out the public from practices. Why do you think he suddenly made this change, and do you think it will hurt Cal's program
?

Ted Miller: Tedford is the only Pac-10 coach to completely close preseason practices, though he obviously didn't do so until this week.

I haven't talked to Tedford about this, nor was I there. Will it hurt the program? It might, but probably not if the Bears keep winning. Few fans will grouse about media access if the Bears play in the Rose Bowl.

I will say I read an article last week that made me say, "Tedford won't like this." I won't identify the source, but the article specifically described how a player was being used. I did not link the story, by the way.

Jay from Eugene, Ore., wrote: Is there any chance of expanding the Pac-10?

Ted Miller: Sure, with a new commissioner in place and the conference coming to grasp with a changing marketplace in which it is falling behind, I think it will be on the table over the next few years.

In fact, I talked to an informed guy this past week, a guy who would have some say if expansion were an issue, and he said Utah and Colorado would be the best two choices, if the Pac-10 went in that direction.

Feel free to discuss.

Josh from Oceanside, Calif., writes: Your Northwest tour was one PAC-10 school short. Why didn't you go to Pullman? I understand that the Cougs aren't going to make much noise this year, but to totally exclude them is ridiculous. Just my two cents...

Jeff from Blackfoot, Idaho writes: Why are you skipping Pullman in your NW preview? WSU is a Pac-10 football team. You do know there is the Pullman/Moscow airport, right? There is also an airport in Spokane. There is even electricity AND running water in Pullman!

Mike from Tualatin, Ore., writes: Where is your sideline report from Pullman?Is it only a PAC-9 review?We will miss your 0-12 prediction for the Cougs without some quotes!We will see how it turns out..........That's why they play the games

Ted Miller: I wish I could have gone to all four NW schools. Just couldn't.

I won't be going to the Bay Area this preseason, though I went there in the spring. Nor will I go to Los Angeles, though I will be spending nearly a week there before the USC-Ohio State game.

Just the way things worked out. My bosses, who have like 452 writers to juggle, tell me where to go, and I go.

Moreover, I went to Washington State last year and didn't go to Seattle, if that helps.

AC from Detroit writes: Alright TM, you've been to the camp, you've seen the new coach doing his thing, witnessed the defense showing signs of life, saw the inexperienced lineman in action, and watched the QB's show what they've got.What's the verdict on the Ducks?Please tell me that you're under the impression that this Boise State game is going to make a great moment for the bachelor party I'm throwing my friend that night and not spin everyone into an angry drunken frenzy.

Ted Miller: I've learned not to make sweeping conclusions based on one day of practice, which is what I saw at Washington, Oregon State, Oregon and Arizona.

As for Oregon, I saw nothing that changed my overall take on the Ducks.

This is a potential top-10 team, but we won't really get a good measure of the inexperienced players on both lines until the lights are on.

I know that sounds like a cop-out, but I've seen too many practice heroes or practice yawners defy my initial impressions in games.

As for your friend's bachelor party on Sept. 3, I expect Oregon to win that game, if that helps, but that's only a 60-40 expectation.

Bachelor parties are cool [I said that with my best Beavis voice].

Mike from Yorba Linda, Calif., writes: Ted, can you give us a clue to the hours you keep? I see these posts at 7 AM PDT though 5 PM PDT and anywhere in between, while traveling from site to site ... and when you're not traveling, what do you do --- stay up after the 2 AM feeding?

Ted Miller: My day ended at 5 p.m? I'm embarrassed.

College football sleeps for no man (or woman, for that matter). So neither do I.