Is the Pac-10 in transition?

September, 28, 2009
Sep 28
3:53
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By Ted Miller

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller


Consider the Pac-10 standings after four games: Nine teams have two or more wins, six have three wins and every team has won at least one game. Only one, though -- unranked UCLA -- is undefeated.

Parity. Uncertainty. Feels different.

It's starting to feel a like bit like 1992-1993. Or maybe 2002.

In 1992, eight Pac-10 teams finished with six or more wins, but none had fewer than two conference defeats.

In 1993, UCLA, Arizona and USC tied atop the conference with 6-2 records, with the Bruins winning the Rose Bowl tiebreaker.

In 2002, eight conference teams finished with winning records, and Washington State earned the Rose Bowl invitation because it beat USC head-to-head. The Trojans earned an at-large BCS bowl berth to the Orange Bowl. Both finished ranked in the top-10.

Pac-10 folks would love for it to be 2002 again, but the likelihood is this season will resemble 1992 or 1993.

Consider the Pac-10 standings: Is there any team -- other than Washington State -- that you feel certain won't win six games and attain bowl eligibility?

And is there any team that seems worthy of playing for the national title?

When is the last time it felt entirely reasonable for intelligent people -- not just the silly ones -- to doubt USC?

The Pac-10 feels different this year. It's far deeper top-to-bottom and there's uncertainty throughout, most particularly at the top.

Since 2003, USC, like clockwork, has been the Pac-10's elite team. It's finished ranked in the nation's top-four every year (2002 also, but that's not the point), and in only three of those six years has another conference team joined the Trojans in the top-10 of the final AP poll.

The season began with USC, California and Oregon as the clear conference frontrunners.

Oregon was trounced by Boise State in the opener. USC followed up its win at Ohio State with a humbling loss at Washington, which was 0-12 in 2008. Then Cal stepped to the fore only to be trounced at Oregon on Saturday.

The Huskies followed their win over the Trojans with a convincing loss at Stanford. Oregon State began the season as a solid No. 4, but the Beavers lost at home to Arizona. Arizona State raised some eyebrows with a strong performance at Georgia.

Stanford, at 2-0, sits atop the conference standings. UCLA plays its Pac-10 opener Saturday at Stanford.

Who would have thought during the preseason that game would feel so meaningful?

Might the conference be in the first stages of a tectonic shift?

If you are looking for a way-premature-to-consider parallel, consider the ACC.

From 1987-2000 -- 14 seasons -- Florida State finished ranked in the final top-5 of the AP standings and won two national titles.

But when Bobby Bowden started losing key assistants -- most notably offensive coordinator Mark Richt and top recruiter Chuck Amato (who returned in 2007) -- the Seminoles went south fairly quickly.

And into the void atop the ACC stepped... no one. The ACC hasn't had a team finish in the top-5 since 2000 (Miami and Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004).

Not that we're saying USC is headed for a fall. Probably should wait for the Trojans to lose a second conference game for just the third time since 2002 before projecting that.

Only when the Seminoles finished 15th in 2001, nearly everyone assumed it was just a momentary blip.

Nope.

Of course, USC could start rolling, teams on an apparent uptick could nosedive and things could end up looking much like they have in past seasons.

But does it feel that way to you?

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