Opening the mailbag: A look at BCS bowl berths
October, 30, 2009
Oct 30
5:57
PM ET
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
Please, don't eat too much candy corn this weekend.
To the notes.
Jason from Boston writes: ted, lots of talk from a troll about how autzen stadium isn't as good an atmosphere as sec stadiums. you've been to both, what do you think?
Ted Miller: Those nasty, nasty trolls.
Autzen Stadium matches any atmosphere in the country. No one who is being honest would say any different.
Tyler from Eugene, Ore., writes: If Oregon were to meet Boise State in the post-season, possibly in Glendale for the Fiesta Bowl, do you think Boise State, The WAC, The NCAA, or The Pac-10 takes action to keep Legarette Blount out of the game, assuming he is reinstated by then? Years ago the Pac-10 prevented Aaron Brooks in playing in a game at UDub because of the punch he threw against Ryan Appleby in the previous years Pac-10 tournament.It would take a perfect storm of sorts for this to happen, but still what would happen...
Ted Miller: First, the circumstances that would lead to Oregon and Boise State both earning BCS at-large berths are fairly complicated. Second, bowl organizers typically are not great fans of rematches. So this scenario is remote, at best.
Second, no one would take any action against Blount. Nor would they take any action against Boise State's Byron Hout, who LeGarrette dumped with one punch after Hout sought him out and taunted him.
If Blount is reinstated next week -- a decision that first Oregon, then the Pac-10, must approve -- he will be reinstated in good standing after what amounted to a seven-game suspension. There will be no further sanction unless he does something else stupid.
And it would be a great made-for-TV moment of redemption and reconciliation if Hout and Blout shook hands before the game anyway.
Dennis from Tucson writes: USC at Oregon is hitherto the Pac10 game of the year. By the time it's all said and done, might there be a few more "games of the year?" I just don't think USC and Oregon are as far ahead of the rest of the Pac10 as the national media does. Take a look at your Pac10 power ratings. Oregon, USC, UofA, Stanford, and Oregon St make up the top half of the conference. Oregon is only playing its first game against one of those teams Saturday, and USC is just 1-0 after giving up 482 yards of offense in a six point win over Oregon St. A few of the remaining match ups between two of those five teams could be as important as the one this weekend. The four previous games--Arizona/Oregon St., Stanford/Arizona, Stanford/Oregon St., Oregon St./USC.--have all been pretty competitive.
Ted Miller: Not to sound like a coach, but every game is important. Losing to Washington State counts just as much in the standings as losing to USC.
But the reason Oregon-USC is the game of the year is it's unlikely two Pac-10 teams will meet during the final stretch of the season with both holding top-10 rankings.
That said: If USC beats Oregon, and Arizona wins out -- also beating Oregon in the process -- the Wildcats visit to USC on Dec. 5 could operate as a conference championship game between two teams in the top-10.
Liam from Oakland writes: hey ted, i read your blog daily, and i have noticed after seeing your picks this week that you have picked my Bears to win every game so far, succeeding 5 times, failing twice. So i ask you why do you pick these my bears week after week?
Ted Miller: My evil twin Skippy picked Cal against Oregon and USC.
More than a few folks, mostly Oregon and USC sorts, have pointed out the irrationality of my unrequited affection for Cal. The Bears certainly did me wrong -- er, Skippy wrong -- in two games.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and ... heck, the odds are good I'm going to be right the fourth time!
Did I mention that I think the Bears might win all the rest of their games?
Brodie from Corvallis, Ore., writes: Don't usually write, but this question has really been galling all week.Why is it that, according to every media write-up, USC is the only team playing at Autzen Saturday that has a shot at the National Title? Everyone says USC is playing for the National Championship, and the Ducks are playing for the Rose Bowl. And of course saying it makes it true, since public opinion basically decides the BCS.How does USC get a complete pass for losing to 3-5 Washington (which UO destroyed), when an 11 point loss at Boise in the first week is a millstone around the Duck's neck that can never be lifted all season? USC was without Barkley? Oregon is clearly a better team now than when they played Boise. In the grand scheme of things, Oregon's loss much more respectable, and farther away which should mean something. Oregon has played better than USC against every one of their common opponents. And yet USC has a chance at the title, while Oregon doesn't. Is there any logic here other than a virulent pro-USC bias?
Ted Miller: Not an unfair point.
Of course, you're making a case. You might notice strong cases can be made for how super-awesome the Pac-10 is. Or the SEC. You can make a case for and against Boise State. Or for TCU. Or for USC. Or Cincinnati.
We pick and choose what's important for our case. And ignore other details. In college football debates, we become defensive attorneys argument that the bloody knife in the glove compartment is just circumstantial and should be ignored.
The explanation for why most pollsters peg USC as a potential national title contender and not Oregon starts with a two-part foundation: 1. USC is ranked higher; 2. USC is USC, and the Trojans track record over the last eight seasons speaks for itself.
That might not be enough for you. Probably shouldn't be ("What the heck does 2005 have to do with this season?!!??!")
USC lost at Washington without its starting quarterback and best player (safety Taylor Mays). The Huskies, though owners of a losing record, have proven to be a respectable team.
But, obviously, losing to Washington is a worse loss than losing at Boise State.
Wins, though, are USC's edge.
USC has won at Ohio State, California and Notre Dame. All three are ranked in the BCS standings.
Oregon has some nice wins -- Utah and Cal come to mind -- but those wins at home don't match what USC has done on the road.
And yet. After all this.
I think that Oregon does become a national title contender if it beats USC on Saturday.
Crystal from Beaverton, Ore., writes: Ted- What do you think of Oregon using black as a new uniform color given that their in-state rivals have been black and orange for years? Shouldn't there be some rule against adopting the color of your rival, no matter how "neutral" the color is?
Ted Miller: I've learned to not get between Ducks and Beavers in their squabbles. Particularly ones in black.
It is sort of odd, Crystal, a green team becoming black. It always seemed so easy being green, you know?
I think we've already got enough rules, though, including the one about wearing white on the road, which cancels out whether the Ducks and Beavers would ever meet in Black.
And aren't some Oregon folks selling it as really, really, really dark green?
Alex from Las Vegas writes: If I want the Pac-10 to get 2 BCS berths, who am I rooting for this Saturday between USC and Oregon?
Ted Miller: The problem with this question is there are so many variables.
The most important element is the Pac-10 creating a perfect storm over the final stretch of the season that gets four or five teams ranked: USC, Oregon, Arizona, Cal and Oregon State seem like the usual suspects, though the way things finish up it might be hard to get more than four ranked.
That would bolster the strength of schedule.
Then, of course, the winner and loser Saturday in Autzen have to win out, creating an 11-1 winner, and a 10-2 loser.
If Oregon wins and goes 11-1, it would either go to the national title game or the Rose Bowl.
A 10-2 USC team would get serious at-large consideration. Why? It's USC, and ratings go up when USC plays. And the Fiesta Bowl would love to get USC because Trojans fans, dying to go to a bowl other than the Rose, would take the short flight to Phoenix by the thousands.
The reverse might be more tricky, but Oregon travels well and likely would be more attractive than a number of other at-large candidates.
And, speaking of other at-large candidates, you need to root against the competition. The SEC will get two slots, probably no matter what, so root against the leaders of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Notre Dame. And also some of those non-AQ teams.
Bubbabear from El Cerrito, Calif., writes: Cal is the only team in the conference with a shot at getting bowl eligible this weekend. WSU is the only team with a chance at being eliminated from bowl consideration. Two teams are there already. How many will join the party? The mathematical minimum is only one more team in the conference must get to 6 wins. Cal and Arizona have to be considered near locks to get to 6. Oregon State also looks like a near certainty to win at least two more games. Stanford has 4 ranked opponents, but only needs to win one of those 4 games. Arizona State needs 2 wins in 5 games, but 4 of those 5 opponents are ranked. UCLA plays the entire bottom half of the Pac 10, so three wins out of 5 is still nowhere near impossible. Washington has to win 3 of 4, but the only ranked opponent left is Cal at home. So, it is still mathematically possible to get 9 teams bowl eligible. So, will it be 3/10 or 9/10? Or somewhere in between?
Ted Miller: Six or seven.
I tried to double-check your math but my ears started to bleed. And no one named "Bubbabear" would steer the Pac-10 blog wrong.
Brian from Corvallis, Ore., writes: Hey Ted, have you had any chance to see if Sean Canfield has showed up on anyones draft list yet?
Ted Miller: The San Francisco 49ers will draft him in the third round. Little bird told me.
Canfield will be drafted. If he continues to play like he did at USC, he will be drafted on the first day.
Max from Los Angeles writes: Ted,I know you're probably inundated with comments (complaints), especially at this time of year, but I just wanted to say that I think you do a great job with this blog. I have no idea how you manage to cover the amount of things that you do, but it's much appreciated by this Cal alum.Keep up the good work!-Max
Ted Miller: Wait one second here Mr. Max from Los Angeles!
People complain! About college football! In America!
No way! Why didn't anyone ever tell me this?
Please, don't eat too much candy corn this weekend.
To the notes.
Jason from Boston writes: ted, lots of talk from a troll about how autzen stadium isn't as good an atmosphere as sec stadiums. you've been to both, what do you think?
Ted Miller: Those nasty, nasty trolls.
Autzen Stadium matches any atmosphere in the country. No one who is being honest would say any different.
Tyler from Eugene, Ore., writes: If Oregon were to meet Boise State in the post-season, possibly in Glendale for the Fiesta Bowl, do you think Boise State, The WAC, The NCAA, or The Pac-10 takes action to keep Legarette Blount out of the game, assuming he is reinstated by then? Years ago the Pac-10 prevented Aaron Brooks in playing in a game at UDub because of the punch he threw against Ryan Appleby in the previous years Pac-10 tournament.It would take a perfect storm of sorts for this to happen, but still what would happen...
Ted Miller: First, the circumstances that would lead to Oregon and Boise State both earning BCS at-large berths are fairly complicated. Second, bowl organizers typically are not great fans of rematches. So this scenario is remote, at best.
Second, no one would take any action against Blount. Nor would they take any action against Boise State's Byron Hout, who LeGarrette dumped with one punch after Hout sought him out and taunted him.
If Blount is reinstated next week -- a decision that first Oregon, then the Pac-10, must approve -- he will be reinstated in good standing after what amounted to a seven-game suspension. There will be no further sanction unless he does something else stupid.
And it would be a great made-for-TV moment of redemption and reconciliation if Hout and Blout shook hands before the game anyway.
Dennis from Tucson writes: USC at Oregon is hitherto the Pac10 game of the year. By the time it's all said and done, might there be a few more "games of the year?" I just don't think USC and Oregon are as far ahead of the rest of the Pac10 as the national media does. Take a look at your Pac10 power ratings. Oregon, USC, UofA, Stanford, and Oregon St make up the top half of the conference. Oregon is only playing its first game against one of those teams Saturday, and USC is just 1-0 after giving up 482 yards of offense in a six point win over Oregon St. A few of the remaining match ups between two of those five teams could be as important as the one this weekend. The four previous games--Arizona/Oregon St., Stanford/Arizona, Stanford/Oregon St., Oregon St./USC.--have all been pretty competitive.
Ted Miller: Not to sound like a coach, but every game is important. Losing to Washington State counts just as much in the standings as losing to USC.
But the reason Oregon-USC is the game of the year is it's unlikely two Pac-10 teams will meet during the final stretch of the season with both holding top-10 rankings.
That said: If USC beats Oregon, and Arizona wins out -- also beating Oregon in the process -- the Wildcats visit to USC on Dec. 5 could operate as a conference championship game between two teams in the top-10.
Liam from Oakland writes: hey ted, i read your blog daily, and i have noticed after seeing your picks this week that you have picked my Bears to win every game so far, succeeding 5 times, failing twice. So i ask you why do you pick these my bears week after week?
Ted Miller: My evil twin Skippy picked Cal against Oregon and USC.
More than a few folks, mostly Oregon and USC sorts, have pointed out the irrationality of my unrequited affection for Cal. The Bears certainly did me wrong -- er, Skippy wrong -- in two games.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and ... heck, the odds are good I'm going to be right the fourth time!
Did I mention that I think the Bears might win all the rest of their games?
Brodie from Corvallis, Ore., writes: Don't usually write, but this question has really been galling all week.Why is it that, according to every media write-up, USC is the only team playing at Autzen Saturday that has a shot at the National Title? Everyone says USC is playing for the National Championship, and the Ducks are playing for the Rose Bowl. And of course saying it makes it true, since public opinion basically decides the BCS.How does USC get a complete pass for losing to 3-5 Washington (which UO destroyed), when an 11 point loss at Boise in the first week is a millstone around the Duck's neck that can never be lifted all season? USC was without Barkley? Oregon is clearly a better team now than when they played Boise. In the grand scheme of things, Oregon's loss much more respectable, and farther away which should mean something. Oregon has played better than USC against every one of their common opponents. And yet USC has a chance at the title, while Oregon doesn't. Is there any logic here other than a virulent pro-USC bias?
Ted Miller: Not an unfair point.
Of course, you're making a case. You might notice strong cases can be made for how super-awesome the Pac-10 is. Or the SEC. You can make a case for and against Boise State. Or for TCU. Or for USC. Or Cincinnati.
We pick and choose what's important for our case. And ignore other details. In college football debates, we become defensive attorneys argument that the bloody knife in the glove compartment is just circumstantial and should be ignored.
The explanation for why most pollsters peg USC as a potential national title contender and not Oregon starts with a two-part foundation: 1. USC is ranked higher; 2. USC is USC, and the Trojans track record over the last eight seasons speaks for itself.
That might not be enough for you. Probably shouldn't be ("What the heck does 2005 have to do with this season?!!??!")
USC lost at Washington without its starting quarterback and best player (safety Taylor Mays). The Huskies, though owners of a losing record, have proven to be a respectable team.
But, obviously, losing to Washington is a worse loss than losing at Boise State.
Wins, though, are USC's edge.
USC has won at Ohio State, California and Notre Dame. All three are ranked in the BCS standings.
Oregon has some nice wins -- Utah and Cal come to mind -- but those wins at home don't match what USC has done on the road.
And yet. After all this.
I think that Oregon does become a national title contender if it beats USC on Saturday.
Crystal from Beaverton, Ore., writes: Ted- What do you think of Oregon using black as a new uniform color given that their in-state rivals have been black and orange for years? Shouldn't there be some rule against adopting the color of your rival, no matter how "neutral" the color is?
Ted Miller: I've learned to not get between Ducks and Beavers in their squabbles. Particularly ones in black.
It is sort of odd, Crystal, a green team becoming black. It always seemed so easy being green, you know?
I think we've already got enough rules, though, including the one about wearing white on the road, which cancels out whether the Ducks and Beavers would ever meet in Black.
And aren't some Oregon folks selling it as really, really, really dark green?
Alex from Las Vegas writes: If I want the Pac-10 to get 2 BCS berths, who am I rooting for this Saturday between USC and Oregon?
Ted Miller: The problem with this question is there are so many variables.
The most important element is the Pac-10 creating a perfect storm over the final stretch of the season that gets four or five teams ranked: USC, Oregon, Arizona, Cal and Oregon State seem like the usual suspects, though the way things finish up it might be hard to get more than four ranked.
That would bolster the strength of schedule.
Then, of course, the winner and loser Saturday in Autzen have to win out, creating an 11-1 winner, and a 10-2 loser.
If Oregon wins and goes 11-1, it would either go to the national title game or the Rose Bowl.
A 10-2 USC team would get serious at-large consideration. Why? It's USC, and ratings go up when USC plays. And the Fiesta Bowl would love to get USC because Trojans fans, dying to go to a bowl other than the Rose, would take the short flight to Phoenix by the thousands.
The reverse might be more tricky, but Oregon travels well and likely would be more attractive than a number of other at-large candidates.
And, speaking of other at-large candidates, you need to root against the competition. The SEC will get two slots, probably no matter what, so root against the leaders of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Notre Dame. And also some of those non-AQ teams.
Bubbabear from El Cerrito, Calif., writes: Cal is the only team in the conference with a shot at getting bowl eligible this weekend. WSU is the only team with a chance at being eliminated from bowl consideration. Two teams are there already. How many will join the party? The mathematical minimum is only one more team in the conference must get to 6 wins. Cal and Arizona have to be considered near locks to get to 6. Oregon State also looks like a near certainty to win at least two more games. Stanford has 4 ranked opponents, but only needs to win one of those 4 games. Arizona State needs 2 wins in 5 games, but 4 of those 5 opponents are ranked. UCLA plays the entire bottom half of the Pac 10, so three wins out of 5 is still nowhere near impossible. Washington has to win 3 of 4, but the only ranked opponent left is Cal at home. So, it is still mathematically possible to get 9 teams bowl eligible. So, will it be 3/10 or 9/10? Or somewhere in between?
Ted Miller: Six or seven.
I tried to double-check your math but my ears started to bleed. And no one named "Bubbabear" would steer the Pac-10 blog wrong.
Brian from Corvallis, Ore., writes: Hey Ted, have you had any chance to see if Sean Canfield has showed up on anyones draft list yet?
Ted Miller: The San Francisco 49ers will draft him in the third round. Little bird told me.
Canfield will be drafted. If he continues to play like he did at USC, he will be drafted on the first day.
Max from Los Angeles writes: Ted,I know you're probably inundated with comments (complaints), especially at this time of year, but I just wanted to say that I think you do a great job with this blog. I have no idea how you manage to cover the amount of things that you do, but it's much appreciated by this Cal alum.Keep up the good work!-Max
Ted Miller: Wait one second here Mr. Max from Los Angeles!
People complain! About college football! In America!
No way! Why didn't anyone ever tell me this?
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Ted Miller
Miller has been covering college football since 1997, starting with Auburn and then heading West to Washington and the Pac-10. His columns for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer won first place in 2007 APSE Best Writing contest. The Atlanta native and University of Richmond graduate presently lives with his wife in Scottsdale, Ariz.
PAC-10 SCOREBOARD
Saturday, 11/21
Final Arizona State 13 UCLA 23 Final 19 Oregon State 42 Washington State 10 Final 25 California 34 17 Stanford 28 Final/2OT 11 Oregon 44 Arizona 41
