Opening the mailbag: Ranking philosophy, bowls and a 'Doh!'
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
Paul from Portland writes: Ted, I enjoy reading your Pac-10 blog. Do you know much about sprained shoulders in a running back? I'm curious as to how effective Quizz could be with a sprained shoulder. Would it be better to play the backups or does a sprained shoulder really not do much to a running back if they can manage the pain?
Ted Miller: Not to get too technical on you Paul, but ... it's not good. No way a running back can avoid contact on his shoulders.
There's pain tolerance and then there's a thousand debilitating electric shocks surging through a person's upper body.
And let's not even get into resulting ball security issues.
Coach Mike Riley called Jacquizz "very doubtful" during today's teleconference. It wasn't surprising.
Andrew from Berkeley writes: Hey Ted, What happens when the Pac10 doesn't fulfill our bowl contracts? Do the schools lose money or do the companies just go to another conference?
Ted Miller: The bowls just find other bowl-eligible teams, often outside of BCS conferences. For example, the Poinsettia Bowl already has signed a contingency agreement with the WAC to replace the No. 7 Pac-10 slot, which won't exist this season.
Denny from Santa Rosa, Calif., writes: Ted, It's Monday morning of Civil War week and I'm reading the comments section following your column regarding Quizz's status for this Saturday. Some real vitriol going on and it's early in the week. Any chance you'll re-print your Rivalry Rankings form the pre-season, I believe, where you ranked the Civil War 6th in a 10 team league.
Ted Miller: Did notice a bit of an Oregon-Oregon State presence this year on the blog.
Even before becoming a first-hand witness on Saturday, my guess is that I'd bounce the Civil War up a couple more notches.
Bret from Washington D.C. writes: Ted, What do you think about naming Cal as the premier rushing team in the Pac-10? A lot is always made about U$C's running game a la Reggie Bush but Best just became Cal's 7th consecutive 1,000 yard rusher. This is the longest running active streak among the major D-I Conferences. Show us some love :)! can't wait for the next mailbag.
Ted Miller: Dude! You are so five-minutes ago. Click here! And click here!
Jim Michalczik might need a few more vowels but he's a heck of a coach.
Sean from Berkeley, Calif., writes: This weekend's Big Game between Cal and Stanford featured a monumental moment in college football: the first ever successful bounce pass. Amazingly, it was even upheld by official review. This leads me to wonder: has the Pac-10 even acknowledged how terrible its referees are? Do they plan on changing anything? It seems like year after year, the Pac-10 has some monumental, boneheaded call that plays a pivotal role in deciding the outcome of a game(Oregon-OU 2006, UW-BYU 2008 are some great examples). It has become so bad that I am never sure of what will be called following an official review, no matter how clear the video evidence is. Please, Ted, give me some encouragement. Tell me you have heard something from the higher-ups in the Pac-10 about some changes in officiating policy. I can't take it anymore!
Ted Miller: Officiating. Bowl arrangements. Television contracts. Expansion. These are the chief complaints of Pac-10 fans. My guess is the next commissioner will put these issues front-and-center.
As for officiating, it's clear that way too many calls are missed, and the Pac-10 has a national reputation for poor officiating. The only answer is hiring better officials.
My guess is that is way easier to type than to do.
Alex from Portland writes: Bowl scenario question here Ted. I've heard that the Holiday bowl is a lot more likely to take a team that hasn't ever played in the game over a team that has been there recently. Does this mean that even if the Ducks beat the Beavers in the Civil War, the Holiday Bowl would still select the Beavers? If so, this pretty much becomes a lose-lose for UO. In fact, their best shot at the Holiday Bowl may be to lose on Saturday and then get picked over Cal.
Ted Miller: I've heard these rationales, too, and I know the Holiday Bowl loves Oregon State. Yet this is a matter of right and wrong. If Oregon beats Oregon State -- on the road -- and they finished tied for second in the conference, it would be disrespectful to the Ducks for the Holiday Bowl to pick the Beavers. And not just for competitive reasons. If Oregon gets bypassed, the Sun Bowl could invoke its "no-repeat" clause, meaning the Ducks end up in the Las Vegas Bowl after finishing second in the conference and winning what most would consider a tiebreaker.
Hopefully, if this is how things play out in the Civil War, the Holiday Bowl would take the Ducks.
Eric from Venice, Calif., writes: I have figured out what is wrong with College Football. It is YOU GUYS! Any sports writer who votes for OU over Texas is the exact problem with CF. When a team plays each other and the other team wins ON THE FIELD they are the better team. It happened. No "logic" Bob. I am a USC fan. Not a Texas fan by the way. How can you explain anyone who has the right to vote picking a team over another that they saw get beat by that team and they have the same record? I think that is a sign of the apocalypse.
Ted Miller: I hear you but don't completely agree. The evaluation process, because it's so subjective in college football, needs gray areas. Sure, Oklahoma lost a highly competitive game with Texas. But the Sooners ripped apart a Texas Tech team that beat Texas.
In the system we have in place, where you have to read tea leaves every week over a myriad of issues while trying to rank teams -- one-loss A vs. one-loss C vs. two-loss D with a WAY tougher schedule than A and B -- you can't live by absolutes, even head-to-head, when there's more to the story.
If we lived by pure head-to-head reasoning, then in 2000 Washington, instead of Florida State, should have played Oklahoma for the national title. Recall: Miami beat Florida State and Washington beat Miami, therefore the Huskies should have reigned supreme. Only Washington also lost to Oregon.
As many regular readers know, I look at ambitious nonconference scheduling first. Every team that hides from competition loses the benefit of the doubt with me. Head-to-head is significant. But so is overall resume.
I also lean hard on my Vegas principal: Who would I really pick to win if it would cost me something to be wrong?
That's not an absolute either, but it's an important component.
And at this moment in time, I've got OU ahead of Texas by one spot.
But the pressure remains on OU to maintain that impression because they are yoked with a head-to-head loss.
Bruce from Portland writes: In your PAC 10 internal affairs article you state "and the Beavers' James Rodgers is the only player in the conference to return a kickoff for a touchdown this season." C.J. Gable at Stanford respectfully disagrees.
Ted Miller: A mistake. I tho
ugh Gable returned a punt -- he's not listed among the Pac-10 leaders in kickoff returns -- and I didn't double-check.
Of course, a good reason for that is USC has only given up 10 touchdowns and five field goals all season.
What do I have to say from myself?
Doh.
Justin from Eugene writes: Hey Ted, Just looking for some clarification. Your bowl predictions have both Arizona and Oregon in Vegas. Obviously they can't both go, but assuming my Ducks lose this week, (which they won't) they would be selected over Arizona given the better record and head to head, correct?
Ted Miller: Double-doh.
What happened was in this screw up is I belatedly recalled that the Sun Bowl might invoke its "no-repeat" clause and go for Arizona over Oregon, which played in the Sun Bowl last year. But I forgot to go back and chance Arizona.
This might even deserve a "triple-doh".
By the way, this is why this time of year sportswriters heads explode while contemplating the myriad bowl possibilities.
Michael from Houston writes: I've been following your Blog for a long time, but have never written in?. that is until now. While I've enjoyed your articles this year, I have spent my share of time with the rest of Beaver Nation cursing your view on Oregon State. It seems like you spend a lot of time praising them and how well they play, yet you continue to pick OSU's opponent to beat us and we continue to win. Well now we are on the Cusp of arguably the biggest Civil War ever (I would argue even more so than 2000) and I finally have realized that you .Ted. are our good luck charm!! With that being said, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE pick Oregon to win this game. OSU can't miss out on the Rose Bowl because you finally came to your senses and hoped on the Beaver Bandwagon!! Like you mentioned earlier, former UW Center Kyle Benn probably thought the same thing for the Huskies heading into the Apple Cup in 2000. If you can pick the Ducks to win, I'd be more than happy to buy you a frosty beverage on New Years Day in Pasadena!! Go Beavs!!
Justin from Parts Unknown writes: Ted, PLEASE pick Oregon over OSU this week. Your reverse pick strategy is working beautifully. OSU is now 2-0 with you picking against them while running through this end of the season 3-game gauntlet for the Roses. Do us a favor Ted, and pick the swamp bats by 7 at Reser. Send OSU to the Roses!
Ted Miller: I don't know Justin and Michael, you Beavers fans have been pretty hard on me.
Actually, my reverse pick strategy has worked even better than noted; it's been further validated by my Stanford-OSU pick and comments I made about Oregon State going to Penn State. But no matter.
I even tried to imply in the last mailbag without damaging the karmic balance that I, much like Mike Riley and Jacquizz Rodgers, had a role to play in the Beavers dream season with my calculated wrongness. But folks just kept railing against me, instead of seeking a quiet moment with the cosmic forces at play here that would have revealed a deeper truth.
I feel like Ray Kinsella trying to win over a grumpy Terence Mann only to get chased around the room with a baseball bat.
Don't you guys understand I hear voices! I've built a dam in my swimming pool!
But alas... so little faith.
So I'm likely picking the Beavers.
But, who knows, maybe as I wheel my figurative Volkswagen van around, Beavers fans will amass in front of me and shout, "Moonlight Graham!"
And then I'll pick against the Beavers and meet everyone in Pasadena.




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