Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Does Vegas respect your team?
By Ted Miller
On Monday, we shared the opening odds for Pac-12 games from the Golden Nugget.
Today, we show you how some of those numbers moved, courtesy of an interesting effort from Sharp Football Analysis.
The way this works is if you get a plus-number for a game, bettors like your team and are showing it "respect." If the numbers move against your team -- a minus-number -- then betters are showing "disrespect."
Of course, some of this is relative. Oregon going from a 37-point to a 35.5-point favorite against Colorado isn't terribly meaningful.
The Ducks dropping from a four-point to a three-point favorite at Stanford on Nov. 7, however, is meaningful.
Here's how things went for each team, with a note on the most interesting move):
Arizona: six disrespect (lost two points from -19 to -17 against Washington State)
Arizona State: five respect, one disrespect (From pick to -3 vs. Wisconsin)
California: three respect (gained 1.5 points vs. Northwestern and Ohio State, though still big underdogs)
Colorado: three respect (went form +3.5 to +2.5 against Colorado State)
Oregon: one respect/four disrespect (Down from a 4-point to 3-point favorite at Stanford)
Oregon State: one respect (up from 5-point to 6-point favorite against Washington)
Stanford: two respect/one disrespect (went from 10- to 9-point against Arizona State)
UCLA: three respect/two disrespect (went from 2-point to 4-point favorite against Washington)
USC: two respect/one disrespect (went from pick to 1-point underdog at Arizona State)
Utah: one disrespect (went from 18-point to 19.5-point underdog at USC)
Washington: four respect/four disrespect (gained points against Boise State, Illinois, Arizona, Oregon; lost with Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State and Washington State)
Washington State: three respect/1 disrespect (went from +11.5 to +12 at Auburn)
It's interesting that eight Washington games moved. It's interesting that Arizona lost ground in all six games that moved, while Arizona State gained ground in five of six games that moved.
Bettors seem to like the Sun Devils, who went from "Pick 'em" to favorites against both Wisconsin and USC and gained a point -- from plus-3 to plus-2 -- at UCLA.