ESPN College Football

EUGENE, Ore. -- Rick Neuheisel was charming, funny and disarmingly honest in the press conference before Friday's Pac-12 championship game. It will be his last game as UCLA's coach, and most believe his Bruins, 32-point underdogs to Oregon, are going to get a prodigious whipping. But here was Neuheisel, refusing to buckle, even with the end on the immediate horizon.

"We are going into the game believing there is hope," he said. "No one across the country will think there was only one team."

Of course, even Neuheisel acknowledged the "unique circumstances" of the Pac-12 title game. The Bruins are 6-6 and are coming off a 50-0 loss to rival USC, the team that finished atop the Pac-12 South Division but is ineligible to play in Friday's game due to NCAA sanctions. Oregon is 10-2 and ranked ninth in the country. UCLA has one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12. Oregon has one of the best offenses in the nation. And the game is in Autzen Stadium, the conference's most boisterous venue, where the Ducks almost never lose.

Yes, it should be a butt-kicking.

How the emotions play out, however, will be interesting. Not for Oregon, of course. Coach Chip Kelly isn't much for the emotional angles reporters are always pestering him about.

Does Kelly have any concern about the Bruins coming in fired up about trying to win one for Neuheisel the week he was fired from his self-described "dream job"?

"I don't know what another team's mindset is," Kelly said. "We worry about what we can control."

Well, what about the stakes? The Rose Bowl is on the line.

"It's not about the prize at the end," Kelly said. "It's about the game."

Ah, but for Neuheisel, it seems to be about much more.

Think about his situation. He was controversially fired at Washington in 2002, and when he won a lawsuit against the school and the bumbling NCAA, many thought he would get blackballed from coaching. He went to the NFL -- landing with the Baltimore Ravens -- but fought hard behind the scenes for years to get his name back in circulation for college head-coaching jobs. Then, by a seeming stroke of magic, he got hired in 2008 at the place where he had always wanted to be.

He rose from the ashes. He got his shot. And this week he was fired. He shook hands with his dream, and his dream rejected him.

"Unfortunately, I wasn't successful enough," he said.

That's the cold, hard fact he carries into his last game. Just a day before, however, his players carried him off the practice field, perhaps trying to show Neuheisel that there isn't just one way to be successful.

Say what you want about Neuheisel -- and the people who know him the least always have strong opinions -- but the guy cares about his players and really -- really -- wanted to win at UCLA. There were many things that went wrong during his tenure in Westwood. There were plenty of things that were Neuheisel's fault. Others were the fault of UCLA administrators. And there was plenty of bad luck -- two quarterbacks going down with season-ending knee injuries in one spring practice? Really?

But when your players carry you off the field, that's meaningful.

"That was something I will have forever," he said.

For Oregon, it's all business. The Ducks are trying to earn a third consecutive conference title and BCS bowl berth. They see UCLA as their nameless, faceless opponent in a 13th Super Bowl this season.

For Neuheisel, it's the end. Even if his team finds, to use his term, "lightning in a bottle" and upsets the Ducks, offensive coordinator Mike Johnson will take over for Neuheisel for the Rose Bowl, according to the plan laid out by athletic director Dan Guerrero.

Neuheisel lived -- and died -- by his insistence on "relentless optimism" at UCLA. Even in present circumstances he described as a "bitter pill," he's still hoping like a surgeon's knife.

"We're a game away from playing in the Rose Bowl," he said, "which is the amazing thing about this."

The Pac-12 championship game looks like a mere trifle for Oregon against UCLA. But is it?

The Pac-12 blog decided to check in with Peter Yoon of ESPN Los Angeles, who's with the Bruins on a daily basis, to get his take on a game that has a 31-point spread and little seeming intrigue.

Is there something we're not seeing here? Read on.

Ted Miller: Well, Peter looks like we’ve got an EPIC CLASH! with Oregon and UCLA. The irresistible force against milquetoast. We’ve read plenty of analysis this year on what went wrong with UCLA during Rick Neuheisel’s tenure. But let’s talk about now. You’re around the team a lot. Where are they mentally? How did Neuheisel’s firing play in the locker room? Are guys upset or do they feel change was needed? Will they be up for this game? And do they have any interest in playing in a bowl game if they lose?

Peter Yoon: I think when you have a team of 90-plus guys, the reactions are going to be scattered. No doubt some players wanted Neuheisel gone and others fully wanted him to stay. I think the uncertainty of Neuheisel's situation contributed to the team's inconsistent, win-blowout loss pattern this season. Now, it seems as though since everything is settled with Neuheisel, they've got a nothing-to-lose attitude because they really have nothing to lose. Their coach is gone and nobody gives them a snowball's chance to win. The mood around practice has been remarkable relaxed this week, but they are definitely getting work done and even the guys who might be secretly happy that Neuheisel has been fired realized that this is his last game and want to try and make it special for him. The players definitely want to play in a bowl game. They clearly realize they probably aren't going to win on Friday so they see going to a bowl as their best shot at ending the season with a win. Plus there are all kinds of perks and bowl swag.

What about Oregon, Ted? How are the Ducks approaching this week? Any chance they look past UCLA because the result is painted as a foregone conclusion? How have they handled games in which they been overwhelming favorites in the past? Are they disappointed that they have to play UCLA, which is in the title game by default? How up for this game is Oregon? And do you think they will run up the score to try and make a statement before the final BCS standings come out?

Ted Miller: The “taking an opponent lightly” deal hasn’t yet been a problem for the Ducks under Chip Kelly. All of his six losses over his first three seasons were to quality teams – five, in fact, were against teams that finished ranked in the top 10 and four in the top five. The Ducks should be expected to approach this week as they always do, employing one of Kelly’s mantras: Preparing as if every week is a Super Bowl against a nameless, faceless opponent. That said, the Ducks aren’t living in a shoebox. They know the circumstances of this game. And there’s always a first time for a coach suffering a major upset. The potential for taking the Bruins lightly is there, even if it doesn’t fit the Ducks' typical MO.

Disappointment? I suspect that the Ducks would have liked another crack at USC, but they knew that wasn’t going to happen. They also know the stakes are high: Win and they go to the Rose Bowl. Lose and they go to the Alamo Bowl. As for running up the score, that would be a graceless thing to do to Neuheisel, so I’d think Kelly would avoid trying to make the final count humiliating. And seeing that they are out of the national title hunt, there’s no reason to do it.

OK, Peter, let’s imagine the unthinkable: A UCLA win? How do the Bruins and Neuheisel pull a rabbit out of their collective hat?

Peter Yoon: Neuheisel said this week that it would take a perfect game in order for UCLA to win. I'm not exactly sure what that entails seeing as how UCLA's traditional ball-control game plan really has no impact against the quick-strike Oregon offense. Let's face it, UCLA's defense isn't going to suddenly turn into the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers, so the only chance UCLA will have is to keep pace with Oregon. Their offense isn't really designed to put up big point totals, so UCLA will have to get points on defense and special teams as well. They've got a dangerous return man on kickoffs in Josh Smith. He doesn't have a return touchdown yet, but has been close and figures to get several opportunities. UCLA's punt-return game is basically nonexistent, but so is the possibility that Oregon will punt. Forcing a few turnovers will be crucial, as will not committing any. I guess what Neuheisel means by a perfect game is scoring every time they have the ball and a few times when they don't.

Turning that question around, Ted, is there any way possible that Oregon could throw this one away?

Ted Miller: The only way I see Oregon losing is if they play a sloppy, uninspired game and then panic at the end. Keep in mind that this is a team that was able to nearly overcome a 24-point deficit to USC. The Ducks could start slowly, fall behind by a couple of scores and then – wham! – light the Bruins up.

Oregon could only lose with a perfect storm of miscues, turnovers and big plays from UCLA. I just don’t see it happening.

Seems like we are in an accord who will win. So let’s give predictions. How do you see this one going down?

Peter Yoon: I'm sure UCLA will come out pretty fired up and might be able to stay within a touchdown or two for a the first quarter or maybe even go into halftime within striking distance, 31-17, or something like that. But Oregon will prove to be too much as the game goes on and simply wear out UCLA like they wear out everyone. I agree that they will probably ease off the gas pedal late, though, out of respect for Neuheisel. Final score: Oregon 54, UCLA 24.

Ted Miller: Similar to my thinking. Ducks may sputter early and UCLA may make some plays, but the Ducks will pop it into overdrive and run over the Bruins. My guess: 45-17.

Ted Miller takes a closer look at Friday's Pac-12 championship game, involving UCLA at Oregon.

Issues to consider heading into the Pac-12 title game:

The first quarter: Does UCLA show up hungry and inspired? One plausible scenario is a flat UCLA team, demoralized by a 50-0 loss to USC and the firing of its head coach, Rick Neuheisel, doesn't show up focused and motivated. Mails it in, so to speak. And a flat effort would get the Bruins squashed by the high-powered Ducks, who are smelling roses in front of their home crowd. This one could get ugly quickly and get progressively worse. Or is the reverse true: Do the Bruins come out fiery and inspired and get to halftime with things tight? The first question to ask is how do the Bruins come out of the gate.

Bruins' running game vs. Oregon run defense: UCLA is 11th in the Pac-12 in passing offense. Quarterback Kevin Prince has passed for over 200 yards just three times this year, and just once in a win. The Bruins aren't going to win in Autzen Stadium throwing the ball for 300 yards. They must run well against an Oregon defense that is strong against the run (135.6 yards per game). Expect the Ducks to gang up on the run -- even normally, coordinator Nick Aliotti is obsessed with stopping the run first -- and dare Prince to throw. The Bruins will need to throw to keep the Ducks honest, but they are going to need to somehow win at the point of attack and establish consistency running right at Oregon. The key is early-down production, so Prince doesn't constantly face third and long, which would force him to throw against a strong Ducks pass rush.

Turnovers? Big upsets happen when the favorite decisively loses the turnover battle. But Oregon doesn't turn the ball over much. The Ducks are third in the Pac-12 in turnover margin -- plus-7 -- in large part because of just 16 giveaways, which is second fewest to Stanford's 15. UCLA is minus-2 in turnovers, and has forced just 18 this year, eighth most in the conference. It seems inconceivable that the Bruins can pull the upset -- heck, stay close -- if they don't win the turnover battle. And they likely need to be plus-2 or -3.

LaMike's last dance? Oregon running back LaMichael James has fallen off the Heisman Trophy radar, despite leading the nation in rushing and averaging a yard and a quarter more per carry than Alabama running back Trent Richardson. Go figure. While James is a junior, this is likely his last game in Autzen Stadium before he's off to the NFL. He's been dinged up, having hurt the elbows of both arms. But he's a tough guy who surely wants to go out with a bang. The Ducks' forte is running the ball and no back has done it better for Oregon than James. Is he headed for a big evening against a weak Bruins run defense?

Special teams rule: Oregon is also good on special teams, though a missed field goal cost them at the end against USC. But UCLA will need to be better on special teams to pull the upset, too. That means no missed field goals and no long kickoff or punt returns. That means punter Jeff Locke pinning the Ducks far away from the Bruins' goal line. That means a big return -- or two -- for the Bruins, giving them points or a short field. Maybe a blocked kick or punt? UCLA needs to win field position and needs to find creative ways to get -- and prevent -- points. Special teams help with all of that.

Went 6-1 last week, missing on Colorado's upset win at Utah -- how the heck did I not see that coming? -- and the season record is 65-24.

I won't miss more than one game this week, either.

Friday: Pac-12 championship game

Oregon 45, UCLA 17: The Bruins figure to come out fired up, and they will stick with the Ducks early. That sometimes happens against Oregon. But midway through the third quarter, the Ducks will start to get in rhythm, solve the Bruins' schemes and start to pull away. Oregon will win its third consecutive Pac-12 title and earn a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA will say goodbye to coach Rick Neuheisel and await its bowl fate, yoked with a 6-7 record but carrying a get-out-of-a-losing-record free card, provided by the NCAA.

Oregon coach Chip Kelly talks about the closeness of the top teams in college football, coaching changes, facing UCLA on Friday and more.

Oregon has never thrown up on itself under coach Chip Kelly.

The Ducks have lost games under Kelly, six in three seasons. But each loss was to a high-quality foe. The only unranked team that beat Kelly was Stanford in 2009, a squad that featured Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart and was ranked the next week after beating the Ducks.

Before losing to USC on Nov. 19, Oregon had won 21 consecutive games in Autzen Stadium, then the longest home winning streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Ducks also had won 19 consecutive conference games, then the second-longest such winning streak in FBS behind TCU.

The Ducks, who very rarely lose at home and very rarely lose conference games, lost to the Trojans by three. UCLA lost to the Trojans by 50.

So it's not much of a surprise that Oregon is a 31-point favorite against UCLA in the first Pac-12 championship game Friday. The Bruins also, by the way, fired coach Rick Neuheisel this week, so the negative momentum with the program is fairly strong.

Our point: If Oregon were to lose to UCLA, and yield a spot in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio to a 7-6 team, it would rate as an upset of monumental proportions. Think Stanford over USC or Appalachian State over Michigan, both in 2007.

But those were games in which the Trojans and Wolverines obviously -- and not without justification -- overlooked their foes. Those were early-season matchups without clear stakes and with zero pregame buzz. The Ducks, who celebrate the steadiness of their weekly preparation, believing every game is a Super Bowl, are surely aware a win means Rose Bowl and a loss means Valero Alamo Bowl. It's that simple.

So there would be grounds to call a UCLA win, with Neuheisel on the sideline for the final time, one of the biggest in college football history.

We laid out that lengthy introduction because now we'll ask a simple but impossible question: How? How can UCLA win this game?

The first thing is obvious: turnovers. That's often the first place to look. If the Ducks were to, say, give the ball away four or five times and the Bruins were to end up with zero giveaways, that would bolster the Bruins' cause significantly. Recall USC QB John David Booty heaving four interceptions against the Cardinal in 2007, which made things easier for a 41-point underdog.

And all turnovers are not equal. A pick-six when the opposing offense is in the red zone can transform a game. Ask Notre Dame about that 96-yard fumble return for a touchdown that South Florida got with the Irish on its 1-yard line.

But Ducks gifts to the Bruins are obvious as a recipe for an upset and would be out of character for a team that has turned the ball over only 16 times, second fewest in the conference behind Stanford, which has 15.

In terms of X's and O's, the Bruins are going to have to take some chances on offense. They like to run the ball and have done it fairly well this season out of their pistol formation, but they are going to have to get some big plays downfield in the passing game. A 76-yard TD pass was probably the key play of the Bruins' surprising win over Arizona State.

That said, the Bruins also will want to play keep-away. Sure, Oregon doesn't care about time of possession. But UCLA should not snap the ball with 15 seconds left on the play clock. The Bruins want to minimize the Ducks' touches.

"If you are talking to your offensive unit, you've got to treat it like tennis," Neuheisel said. "You've got your serve, and you better hold it. You've got to go down and put points on the board."

Then there's special teams. The Bruins need to win that battle. They certainly can't let the Ducks get big plays on returns from De'Anthony Thomas. They can't miss field goals. They need punter Jeff Locke to pin the Ducks as far away from the end zone as possible. UCLA needs a short field for its limited offense and a long field for Oregon's explosive one.

As for the Bruins' defense, it needs to be opportunistic and physical. This term has become a cliché for Ducks opponents, but it's that way because it's true: gap integrity. The Bruins' front seven needs to maintain its assigned gaps and not get distracted by Oregon's spread-option misdirection.

"You have to be very mindful of assignments and you have to be mindful of pace," Neuheisel said.

Third down also will be key, although Oregon is rarely afraid of going for it on fourth down. The Bruins need to find ways to stay on the field on offense and get off the field on defense. That's obvious, yes, but it also speaks to the best way to prevent the Ducks' up-tempo pace from exhausting a defense.

In the end, it's simple: UCLA needs to play its absolute best, and Oregon needs to lay an egg.

There is no reason to believe that will happen, even if the Bruins are inspired to win one for the old Rickster.

But they still are going to roll the ball out there Friday and see what happens. Stranger things have occurred, after all. Not many, but some.

Oregon is better on defense than offense.

That got your attention, eh?

Well, you can make the case by one measure: the All-Pac-12 team as voted on by the coaches. Only one Duck is named to the first-team offense. Three are named to the first-team defense. One Duck is on the second-team offense and one is on the second-team defense. So, that's 4-2 in favor of the defense.

Then, when you toss in three honorable mentions on defense -- players need at least two coaches' votes to make it -- and just one on offense, well, that makes a strong case for the star power of the defense. Seven of the 11 defenders were honored, and just three of the Ducks' 11 offensive players were. (Yes, this leaves off freshman co-offensive player of the year, De'Anthony Thomas, who made the first team as return specialist.)

And, while we're considering the All-Pac-12 team, I have no idea why linebacker Michael Clay, the Ducks' leading tackler, didn't earn honorable mention.

Of course, the numbers don't hold this notion up. The Ducks again rank in the nation's top six in scoring, total and rushing offense. The defensive rankings are nowhere near as elite.

Oregon is 64th in the nation in total defense (384.7 yards per game), 47th against the run (135.6 ypg), 43rd in scoring defense (23 ppg) and 34th in pass efficiency defense. The highlight is sacks, where the Ducks rank sixth with 3.25 per game.

The Ducks' yards per play -- 4.94 -- however, ranks in the nation's top 25. That is meaningful and is the measure coordinator Nick Aliotti most often points to.

Coaches will tell you to never look ahead. So we won't. At first.

The present for Oregon -- another Super Bowl against a nameless, faceless opponent -- is UCLA. The Bruins rank 10th in the conference in scoring offense after getting shut out last weekend by USC. They rank 11th in passing. What they can do is run. They are third in the conference in rushing, with 193.3 yards per game.

So the Ducks' solid run defense has a fairly simple task against the Bruins. Stop the run and force Kevin Prince to throw the ball inside Autzen Stadium. See what happens.

Now we're going to look ahead -- big-time -- and suppose that Oregon takes care of business and Wisconsin beats Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game on Saturday and earns a spot opposite the Ducks in the Rose Bowl. (Considering that the Spartans beat Wisconsin in East Lansing, that's no sure thing, mind you).

The Badgers, based on statistics, are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in the nation in scoring offense and scoring defense. Not sure I buy the defensive numbers: The Badgers gave up 70 points combined to Ohio State and Michigan State, and neither has what would be considered an A-list offense.

But that Badgers offense is potent and balanced with quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Montee Ball and a HUGE offensive line.

Obviously, we are looking way ahead for both teams. But Wisconsin-Oregon would be an intriguing matchup of consequence. It would give the Ducks a nice opportunity to show the nation they are more than a flashy offense if they met Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.

Oh, and it would be a nice opportunity for the no-name offense to prove it can pile up numbers against an elite defense with extra time to prepare.

Not that we'd overlook UCLA or anything.

If reading a series of factoids about how great Oregon is annoys you, might we suggest you skip over the bullet points that follow?

• If Oregon beats UCLA on Friday, it will win its third consecutive Pac-10/12 championship. USC (2004-06) is the only Pac-12 school to accomplish that feat since the conference expanded to 10 teams in 1978.
• The Ducks have recorded four consecutive seasons with double-digit victories. Before this run, they had three in program history -- and they all happened over the past 12 years.
• The Ducks have 42 wins since the start of 2008, which is the most in a four-year period in school history. Last year, Oregon set a school record for wins at 12.
• Oregon coach Chip Kelly has led the Ducks to more wins (32) in his first three seasons than any coach in conference history.
• Kelly is 32-6 overall and 25-2 in Pac-12 play. His .926 percentage in conference play is the best in conference history.

And we'd like to announce that Oregon is very likely to win 10 games again in 2012 and will be the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth consecutive conference title, unless a couple of guys at USC decided to wait another year before entering the NFL draft.

Hold your thumb and forefinger an inch apart. That represents the distance Oregon has to travel to become a legitimate Pac-12 dynasty.

Of course, the NCAA looms over the program due to L'Affaire de Willie Lyles. Oregon has yet to receive its notice of allegations that contains specific alleged rules infractions, but it received official notification of an investigation in September, so it's only a matter of time. That could lead to a slap on the wrist. Or a haymaker that knocks the program out, at least for a bit.

But that's off-the-field stuff. Let's cast our gaze on the field. There is, after all, a space between your thumb and forefinger that needs explaining.

The only element that eludes Oregon under Kelly is a BCS bowl victory -- a signature win to complete a season. It lost the Rose Bowl to Ohio State after the 2010 season. It lost the national title game to Auburn after the 2011 season.

While those were both highly competitive games, they are most remembered by fans not wearing green -- or whatever color Oregon is wearing at the moment -- for the Ducks' high-powered offense getting stymied. You know, that whole "you give a good defense more than a week to prepare and it can stop Kelly's tricky spread-option."

We're about to make an assertion that some Ducks fans will disagree with (now there's something that never happens): It's a good thing Oregon isn't getting a rematch with LSU in the national title game.

I would not pick any team in the nation to beat LSU. Not Oregon, not anyone. To be honest, I wouldn't pick Oregon to beat Alabama, either.

At this point, I would pick the Ducks to beat either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Rose Bowl (I suspect they'd pound the Spartans; Wisconsin would be a much tougher test). And Oregon needs a victory in a BCS bowl game to earn national validation.

There is no question Oregon has owned the conference for three years. And, by owning the conference, the Ducks get ownership of all the nice nonconference wins Pac-12 teams have posted during that span. But Oregon doesn't have a marquee nonconference win under Kelly, bowl game or otherwise. Of his six losses, two came in conference play (Stanford, 2009; USC, 2011) and the other four were against highly ranked nonconference foes (Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU).

That's where the Rose Bowl comes in. Beating Wisconsin or Michigan State would give the Ducks a nice season-ending victory that would give them a national uptick heading into 2012.

Losing to LSU, no matter that every other team would do the same, would provide another negative example for those who don't perceive the Ducks as being truly elite. Remember: This is college football. Without a playoff, perception is only slightly less important than win-loss record (see how it at present is benefiting Alabama).

Of course, losing the Rose Bowl would have an even worse effect, one that could trickle down within the Pac-12. It could be the difference between a 2012 preseason No. 5 ranking and a No. 10 one. And, yes, that matters if your goal is to play for a national title.

Ergo: Oregon needs a BCS bowl win. That is a critical next step for the program.

Would that prove dynastic arrival? At the Pac-12 level, it's already there. As a perennial top-10 team, it would, too.

But there is one more step, though. Winning a BCS bowl would set a course, but the ultimate destination is to be standing amid confetti with a big smile in a loud uniform holding that gaudy crystal football after the final BCS bowl game is complete.