ESPN College Football

It's no secret that success is often tied to coaching continuity. For example, see Ducks, Oregon.

According to Pete Roussel of CoachingSearch.com, Oregon is the only team in the country that has not had any coaching turnover since 2009.

Writes Roussel:

Tomorrow, former Georgetown assistant Luke Thompson officially joins Rich Ellerson's staff at Army, which means Chip Kelly's staff at Oregon will be the only staff in the country that has remained completely intact since start of the 2009 season. All nine full-time assistant coaches that began the 2009 season with Kelly remain on the staff in coaching positions.

Think about that. There are over 120 major college football programs and only one will have the same nine coaches for four consecutive seasons.

It's an interesting breakdown. A few other Pac-12 teams are mentioned in the article. Stanford is listed as having the same offensive coordinator since 2010. Roussel refers to David Shaw as "technically" the offensive coordinator, though I think Pep Hamilton and his 97 percent red zone efficiency last year might take exception to that.

San Diego State is also listed as one of the 17 teams with no coaching turnover, though offensive line coach Dan Finn left the Aztecs last month to return to Utah -- where he was a former graduate assistant.

Still, it's an impressive note about Oregon and a credit to Kelly and his staff, which has gone 34-6 and 25-2 in the conference during that span.

Projecting the bowls based on the opening week.

Rose Bowl Game: Stanford vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo: Oregon vs. Big 12
Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Arizona State vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun: California vs. ACC
MAACO Las Vegas: Arizona vs. Mountain West
Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington vs. ACC or Army
Gildan New Mexico: Utah vs. Big 12

Projecting bowl games before any games are played? Heck, why not?

Here's our way, way too early prediction on how things may stack up.

And yes, if Oregon beats LSU in Cowboys Stadium on Sept. 3, we will immediately shake things up. And add a bowl game.

Rose Bowl Game: Stanford vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo: Oregon vs. Big 12
Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Arizona State vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun: Washington vs. ACC
MAACO Las Vegas: Utah vs. Mountain West
Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona vs. ACC or Army
Gildan New Mexico: UCLA vs. Big 12

Note: These don't exactly correspond to our Power Rankings, which will be released later.

First in a series looking at potential dream and nightmare scenarios for all Pac-12 teams.

Understand: These are not predictions. They are extreme scenarios and pieces of fiction. You can read last year's versions here.

We're going in reverse order of my post-spring power rankings (which might not be identical to my preseason power rankings).

Up first: Washington State

Best case

Idaho State isn't good; no one would say the Bengals should have been competitive with Washington State. But there was something about the way the Cougars marched over the Bengals like an army of steamrollers in a 62-3 victory that raised a few eyebrows in Pac-12 towns.

A 42-10 manhandling the following weekend over UNLV raised a few more. But it was a 38-17 victory at San Diego State that confirmed it: The Cougs will not be patsies in 2011.

"Making a statement? I don't know about that," said Cougars quarterback Jeff Tuel after throwing three touchdown passes and outplaying touted Aztecs quarterback Ryan Lindley. "We're 3-0. That's good. We've got a bye coming up. That's good. Then we start the Pac-12 season at Colorado. That's probably where we try to make a meaningful statement."

For three quarters, the only statement from the Cougs is "almost." Colorado leads 24-10 with eight minutes left in the final frame and is driving. But on a third and 4 from the Cougs 18, Travis Long catches Buffaloes quarterback Tyler Hansen from behind and slaps the ball loose. Washington State recovers. Three completions from Tuel gets the Cougars to the Buffs 25. A draw play for Rickey Galvin gets the rest of it.

The defense stops the Buffs again, but the ensuing punt is downed on the Cougs 8-yard line with 2:15 left.

Tuel to Marquess Wilson converts a third and 8. Tuel to Kristoff Williams for 33 yards gets the Cougs into Colorado territory. A screen to Logwone Mitz reaches the 14. Tuel scrambles to the four, but takes a sack on second and goal. On fourth down, Tuel loops a throw to Wilson in the corner of the endzone with seven seconds left.

"I started thinking about our 2-point play when we got the ball on the eight," Washington State coach Paul Wulff said after his Cougars improved to 4-0 with a 25-24 win. "I thought, 'What kind of name is Gino Simone anyway?' Sounds like some sort of pretentious fashionista doesn't it? Like, 'The spring collection from Gino Simone features silk and ruffles and bright colors that will make you feel fabulous!' Thought the kid needed a football moment. And I thought he would be open. I was right, eh?"

The Cougs get votes in both the AP and Coaches polls.

But then the rebirth hits a wall. An overtime loss at UCLA, is followed by a blowout home defeat to Stanford. Oregon State gets revenge for a 2010 loss to the Cougs, and Oregon rolls at home. A four-game losing streak has fans once again questioning Wulff. Athletic director Bill Moos says he won't comment until after the season, which is read as a refusal to give a vote of confidence.

Washington State picks up win No. 5 at California, but falls back to .500 on a late field goal by No. 19 Arizona State. Utah comes to town with hopes of a South Division championships, but the Utes trudge out 27-24 losers. Tuel scrambles for the winning score with no time left, which rocks Martin Stadium like it's 2002, as though Drew Dunning is again sliding on his knees after USC is vanquished in overtime.

Washington State, after winning just five games the previous three years under Wulff, is bowl eligible.

"Bowl eligible? That's great," Wulff said. "But I hate purple and that's all I can see right now."

The Cougars rolls 35-24 over the faltering Huskies -- last place in the Pac-12 North -- at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Headline in the Sunday Seattle Times, "Sarkisian on the hot seat?"

Washington State whips Army in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl to finish 8-5, winning four of its final five games.

Wulff signs a contract extension exactly one month before signing a recruiting class ESPN.com's Tom Luginbill calls, "Shockingly good."

Worst case

It was a 2-0 start, but the 24-21 victory against Mountain West bottom-feeder UNLV didn't inspire many folks in Pullman.

The 35-30 loss at San Diego State felt revealing. Sure, quarterback Jeff Tuel can throw the football -- see three TD passes -- but giving up four sacks and rushing for just 96 yards isn't going to get it done. Nor is the defense yielding 487 yards.

The Cougars lose at Colorado but come back to surprise UCLA. That inspires hope: They are just three wins from bowl eligibility.

But no more wins come. Stanford, Oregon and Arizona State deliver beatdowns. Competitive games with Oregon State, California and Utah still include unhappy endings.

Wulff announces his resignation before the Apple Cup.

"While the program is better off today than when I took it over in 2008, my chief regret is that we just didn't get it done," he says. "I am and will forever be a Cougar. I only wish great things for this program in the future."

No. 15 Washington trounces Washington State 41-17. The Huskies head to the Alamo Bowl, where they bludgeon Texas A&M 35-10. ESPN.com shortly dubs them "darkhorse national title contenders in 2012."

The Cougars hire Tyrone Willingham to replace Wulff.

The inaugural Kraft Fighting Hunger Bowl brought up the rear of the 2011 bowl season, but in its second iteration will ring in a New Year.

The bowl formerly know as the Emerald Bowl will be played on Dec. 31 at AT& T Park, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET. on ESPN.

The bowl game is contracted to feature the Pac-12's No. 6 team and Army, if it wins six games and becomes bowl eligible. Last season, no Pac-10 team qualified and the game featured Nevada beating Boston College 20-13 on Jan. 9, which made it the final bowl game before the BCS Championship Game.

Here's the Pac-12 bowl lineup for 2011-12 (the conference will add the New Mexico Bowl -- No. 7 selection -- in 2012).

No. 1 : Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO, Jan. 2 (Jan. 1, the bowl's traditional date, falls on a Sunday, when no bowl game will be played this year) OR Allstate BCS National Championship, Jan. 9

No. 2: Valero Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12 No. 3, Dec. 29.

No. 3: Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl vs. Big 12 No. 5, Dec. 28.

No. 4: Hyundai Sun Bowl vs. ACC No. 4, Dec. 31.

No. 5: MAACO Las Vegas vs. Mountain West No. 1, Dec. 22

No. 6: Kraft Fight Hunger vs. Army (if eligible), Dec. 31.

While angry fans and critical sportswriters have had plenty to say about USC's execrable performance in a 36-7 loss at Oregon State last weekend, the identity of coach Lane Kiffin and the Trojans' worst critic might be surprising.

It's Lane Kiffin.

"We were just horrible," Kiffin said. "We played as bad as you can play. I saw some things I hadn't seen in 10 games. I don't know where they came from, so obviously I didn't do a very good job. I can't even fathom that we scored seven points. It's like a bad dream. We're trying to move on."

So how do you really feel, Lane?

He is correct, though. And they best wake up and move on. The Trojans, now 7-4, play their two archrivals over the next two weekends: Notre Dame and UCLA. Win those games and the season can be considered a moderate success, considering the circumstances of the arrival of a new coach and playing under the dark cloud of harsh NCAA sanctions.

Lose one or both? Not good, particularly when you consider the recent dominance -- the Trojans have won eight consecutive games against the Fighting Irish and have lost just once to the Bruins since 2001.

A week ago, USC looked like a good bet to sweep to a 10-win season. Now they look ripe for another upset defeat, particularly when you consider the dispiriting loss at Oregon State also included a high-ankle sprain to QB Matt Barkley, who is questionable for the Irish's visit. Backup Mitch Mustain didn't look good in relief, either, completing 8 of 17 passes for 60 yards.

Kiffin said that Barkley is undergoing two-a-day sessions of rehab, but that he expects Mustain -- who is more comfortable playing out of the shotgun -- to perform better with a week of preparation as the starter, if that proves necessary.

The Irish's season under first-year coach Brian Kelly hasn't exactly been placid. Off the field, there's been tragedy and controversy. On the field, Notre Dame was mostly written off following losses to Navy and Tulsa.

But then the Irish upset Utah and whipped Army by a combined count of 55-6. At 6-5, they are bowl-eligible, but if they beat the Trojans and get to 7-5, they could upgrade their bowl options, including taking the Big East's slot in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando.

Orlando sounds good when you've been in South Bend during a difficult fall.

USC, of course, can't play in a bowl game. It's only motivations are pride and retaining the Jeweled Shillelagh.

For much of the year, pride was enough. But that didn't seem present during the listless effort at Oregon State. Perhaps the notion of becoming the first team to beat Notre Dame nine consecutive times will reignite motivation among the Trojans.

Four Pac-10 players are among the 23 quarterfinalists for the annual Lott IMPACT Trophy, the Pacific Club IMPACT Foundation announced Wednesday.

The four players are: UCLA linebacker Akeem Ayers, Arizona State defensive tackle Lawrence Guy, California linebacker Mike Mohamed and Oregon linebacker Casey Matthews.

Named after Hall of Famer Ronnie Lott, the Lott is awarded to college football's Defensive IMPACT Player of the Year. Now in its seventh year, the Lott is the first -- and only -- college football award to equally recognize athletic performance and the personal character attributes of the player.

The Big 12 and the Big Ten have five players on the list, the SEC and ACC three each, the WAC two and one independent, Army.

The semifinalists will be announced Nov. 3 and the four finalists Nov. 24. Those four finalists will be flown to Newport Beach, Calif., for the annual black-tie banquet that will be televised by FOX.

Seeing that every misdeed in the state of Oregon this offseason got plenty ink, here's one for the good guys: Oregon's Chip Kelly not only is joining other coaches on an overseas tour of U.S. military installations this month, he volunteered for the mission.

According to the Eugene Register-Guard: "Kelly will travel Friday to McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita, Kansas, before heading overseas along with Army’s Rich Ellerson, Harvard’s Tim Murphy, Tommy Tuberville of Texas Tech and Ron Zook of Illinois. The first foreign stop will be at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and Kelly said the tour will also take them to Iraq and Afghanistan."

The coaches, who will spend at least one night aboard a naval ship, not only chat with troops and sign autographs, they also will conduct "combine-style workouts" as well as coach a couple of flag football games, one of which will be the annual Under Armour Dust Bowl, which is Army vs. Air Force "with some Marines sprinkled in."

Guess here is that one might get fairly intense.

Kelly & Co. are scheduled to return to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on May 31, Memorial Day. They also may visit the White House.

ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach ranked this year's bowl games, and here's how the Pac-10 games fared:

3. Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Oregon
4:30 p.m. ET, Jan. 1

7. MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
No. 18 Oregon State vs. No. 14 BYU
8 p.m. ET, Dec. 22

11. Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
No. 20 Arizona vs. No. 22 Nebraska
8 p.m. ET, Dec. 30

13. Brut Sun Bowl
No. 21 Stanford vs. Oklahoma
2 p.m. ET, Dec. 31

14. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
No. 23 Utah vs. California
8 p.m. ET, Dec. 23

18. Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. No. 25 Southern California
8 p.m. ET, Dec. 26

33. Eagle Bank Bowl
Army/UCLA vs. Temple
4:30 p.m. ET, Dec. 29

This seems mostly reasonable to me, though this is as subjective as you can get.

Besides the Rose Bowl, which I think is going to come down to the final minutes, I'm curious how Arizona will handle Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who's an extraordinary player.

I'm also extremely curious to see how USC looks vs. Boston College. The talent disparity between the programs is gaping, but the Golden Eagles are going to come out swinging, hungry to prove themselves vs. a program that probably inspires a little awe in them.

Please note: I typed "program." BC won't be in awe once they watch game tape, particularly the Stanford game.

USC? We'll find out how much heart this team has.

His physiognomy would have sufficiently indicated that he was a shrewd and capable fellow, and in truth he had often sat up all night over a bristling bundle of accounts, and heard the cock crow without a yawn. But Raphael and Titian and Rubens were a new kind of arithmetic, and they inspired our friend, for the first time in his life, with a vague self-mistrust.

• Arizona and Nebraska are unfamiliar foes, but the coaching staffs know each other well. For Arizona fans, there should be some déjà vu.
• Arizona State is hunting for JC offensive linemen, and it got one here.
• Ray Ratto asks the existential question: Just who is California and who will show up in the Poinsettia Bowl against a tough Utah squad? Fact is Cal got everything it could -- in a bad way -- out of its four defeats by a combined count of 145-30.
• Ohio State has a long time to prepare for Oregon's spread-option attack.
• Sure, it's not the Rose Bowl, but Oregon State's Las Vegas Bowl matchup with BYU is intriguing on many levels.
• Stanford's Toby Gerhart will have his hands full with the Oklahoma defense, particularly if quarterback Andrew Luck can't play.
• UCLA is a big fan of Navy -- the Midshipmen need to beat rival Army for the Bruins to get a berth in the EagleBank Bowl on Dec. 29. The Bruins can practice while they await their fate, but quarterback Kevin Prince remains questionable.
• More on the strange Charlie Weis-Pete Carroll Internet accusation saga. Will USC find redemption in Northern California?
• Some snarky USC fans and reporters thought the Trojans would be better off without Nick Holt. So, at the end of the season, which team is playing better defense: USC or Washington? Jim Moore doesn't think Jake Locker will return for his senior season.
• This Washington State quarterback recruit looks good.
• Jon Wilner looks at the winners and losers of the bowl season before it begins -- Jon left one out: The collective "whew" that went out from BCS conference teams when Boise State and TCU were matched in the Fiesta Bowl.

UCLA will play Temple in the EagleBank Bowl on Dec. 29 in Washington, D.C.’s RFK Stadium on ESPN (4:30 p.m. ET).

That is unless Army beats Navy on Saturday. In that case, Army replaces UCLA (6-6) and the Bruins will stay home for the bowl season.

Temple (9-3) received an at-large invitation to the bowl and will be playing in its first bowl game in 30 years. The Owls have experienced a football resurgence under fourth-year head coach Al Golden, tying for first-place in the Mid-American Conference.

With Notre Dame's decision to not play in a bowl game, UCLA's chances of landing an at-large bowl berth are much better, though the Bruins may have to wait until Dec. 12 to get an invitation if they wants to stay in the region and play in the Humanitarian Bowl.

The Boise-based bowl wants UCLA, Humanitarian Bowl executive director Kevin McDonald told the Idaho Statesman this week.

UCLA is 6-6. All teams with winning records must be picked for at-large berths before bowls can consider .500 teams. Without 6-6 Notre Dame in the running, it appears the Bruins would be the first choice among 6-6 teams.

Two potential snags: Wisconsin must beat Hawaii today and Navy must beat Army on on Dec. 12.

UCLA is the Pac-10's seventh bowl-eligible team, but the conference only has six bowl contracts.