Pac-12: bowl index 2012

Pac-12 bowl projections: Week 10

October, 28, 2012
10/28/12
8:45
PM ET
Boom goes the bowl projections.

There are two schools of thought regarding bowl projections this week: (1) the optimist’s outlook, which believes the resume of an undefeated Oregon stands on its own and the computers will work themselves out if/when the Ducks are 13-0 and reward them with a berth in the national championship game. Or (2) the pessimist’s outlook, which curses USC and Oregon State for losing on Saturday (to good teams, but unranked teams nevertheless) -- and therefore minimizing Oregon’s already shaky computer-generated credentials.

We at the Pac-12 blog prefer the optimist’s approach. And we certainly never, ever curse.

So for now, we’re going to stick with the projection of Oregon in the national championship game with a perfect record and a two-loss Oregon State team in the Rose Bowl. Wishful thinking? Maybe. But that’s the best scenario in which two Pac-12 teams go to BCS games.

Remember, should Oregon go to the title game, the No. 2 team in the Pac-12 would have to be ranked in the top 14 to qualify for a BCS game. So what does that mean for teams such as USC and Oregon State or even a UCLA or Stanford? Simple: win. All of them have back-loaded games against ranked teams (actually, each other) that could propel them into the top 14.

Saturday’s UCLA-Arizona game is a lot more intriguing this week than it was last week -- especially since both have now returned to the Top 25.

The conference now has five bowl-eligible teams with Stanford and UCLA picking up their sixth wins, joining Oregon, Oregon State and USC as postseason qualifiers. The Arizona schools are on the precipice with five wins. Washington got back to .500 and needs two out of its next four (all against unranked teams, but three of four are on the road). And is Utah going to make another run? Cal and Washington State aren’t statistically eliminated yet, but come on. Buh-bye. Colorado is the only team we can officially rule out.

BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 7: Oregon vs. BCS 1 or 2
Rose Bowl Game, Jan. 1: Oregon State vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo, Dec. 29: Stanford vs. Big 12
Bridgepoint Education Holiday, Dec. 27: Arizona vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun, Dec. 31: USC vs. ACC
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, Dec. 22: UCLA vs. MWC
Kraft Fight Hunger, Dec. 29: Washington vs. Navy
Gildan New Mexico, Dec. 15: Arizona State vs. MWC

Pac-12 bowl projections: Week 8

October, 14, 2012
10/14/12
8:45
PM ET
No movement with the top three this week -- and in some ways your Pac-12 bloggers are feeling even better about Oregon State. It showed it can absorb injuries and win -- on the road no less. All in all, a fantastic team win for the Beavers.

ASU and UCLA move up with the victories; Stanford drops with the loss.

We’re left with the same dilemma as we had last week with the last two spots. Utah’s chances took a huge hit with the loss at UCLA. Of its six remaining games, only one is against a ranked team (Oregon State), but going a minimum of 4-2 in the second half is going to be tough. Even last year, the Utes were still 3-3 at the turn before they went on their run.

Oct. 27 looks like a huge swing game for both the Utes and Cal -- their opponent. The Bears, winners of two straight, could get to .500 with a win in the Big Game next week. That would set up a very intriguing matchup with the Utes. And if they win that, they'll be at five wins with Washington, Oregon and Oregon State to close out the year.

The Huskies are through their seven-week meat grinder with a .500 record. Could have been worse. Oregon State is the only ranked team on the back end for the Huskies, so at least three wins are expected. But next week’s showdown with Arizona is interesting. The Wildcats, also 3-3, are coming off the bye. So Saturday’s meeting in Tucson is also a huge swing game for both teams.

BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 7: Oregon vs. BCS 1 or 2
Rose Bowl Game, Jan. 1: Oregon State vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo, Dec. 29: USC vs. Big 12
Bridgepoint Education Holiday, Dec. 27: Arizona State vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun, Dec. 31: UCLA vs. ACC
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, Dec. 22: Stanford vs. MWC
Kraft Fight Hunger, Dec. 29: Washington vs. Navy
Gildan New Mexico, Dec. 15: Arizona vs. MWC

Pac-12 bowl projections: Week 6

September, 30, 2012
9/30/12
12:00
PM ET
The Pac-12 is looking "O-fer." As in everyone else is O-fer against the great state of Oregon. The Ducks and Beavers are a combined 8-0, the only two teams in the conference that are still undefeated. That makes Oregon the most awesomely awesome state in the union.

As a result, we’re still projecting the Ducks to the title game. And with the win in Tucson, Ariz., Oregon State is smelling all rosy.

Stanford’s loss to the Huskies, widely regarded as a bad thing for everyone who doesn’t bleed purple and gold (or black and orange for that matter), was a blow to its chances of another BCS bowl game. The easiest road for Oregon to gain a spot in the national championship game would be to run the table -- so for our purposes here, we’re projecting the Ducks with wins over Stanford and Oregon State, and two over USC. The same math we used for Stanford the past few weeks now applies to the Beavers. (Feel free to disregard those previous projections; we forgot to add "just kidding" at the end of each post.) The Rose Bowl would likely select a one-loss Oregon State team over a three-loss USC squad.

Rest assured, this week's projections are so reliable that Nostradamus himself would be humbled by the very thought of questioning them ... at least until next week.

BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 7: Oregon vs. BCS 1 or 2
Rose Bowl Game, Jan. 1: Oregon State vs. Big Ten
Valero Alamo, Dec. 29: USC vs. Big 12
Bridgepoint Education Holiday, Dec. 27: UCLA vs. Big 12
Hyundai Sun, Dec. 31: Washington vs. ACC
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, Dec. 22: Stanford vs. MWC
Kraft Fight Hunger, Dec. 29: Arizona State vs. Navy
Gildan New Mexico, Dec. 15: Arizona vs. MWC

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