Pac-12: Fresno State Bulldogs
Every game counts. But some games count more. Or tell us more.
We're going through the Pac-12 and picking out one game that seems most important -- or potentially most revealing -- for each team from our vantage point today.
We're going in alphabetical order.
Colorado
Most important game: Sept. 22 at Washington State
Why it's important: Imagine it, Colorado fans, a 3-0 start. Colorado State, Sacramento State and Fresno State to open the season, and victories in those three games are achievable. Then it's off to Pullman where, no doubt, last year's collapse against the Cougars is still fresh in the minds of those in Boulder. Remember the 10-point lead with five minutes left in the game? Only to watch Marshall Lobbestael throw two touchdowns in the final two minutes -- including a 63-yarder to Marquess Wilson with 1:10 left to play -- en route to a 31-27 come-from-behind win.
This game could be the most pivotal of Colorado's season. If the Buffaloes start off 3-0, then get a victory in Pullman, they'll head home to face a still-uncertain UCLA team before the bye week. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Colorado to be -- wait for it -- 5-0 heading into the bye week. Of course, a lot of things have to fall into place for all of this to come together. And it might be a stretch -- but it's not a big stretch.
If the Buffaloes can take care of business in the first three games, they'll have plenty of motivation for revenge against Washington State, and a ton of confidence as they look to the second half of the season and the very real possibility of achieving a bowl game.
True, there is a bit of a rivalry growing between Colorado and Utah, seeing as both were Pac-12 newcomers last year and the Buffaloes stunned Utah last season. It's actually a renewal of the old rivalry between the two schools from the 19-teens, through 40s. Maybe in a few years, that rivalry will rekindle (though doubtful it will ever reach the status of the CU-Nebraska rivalry).
But for now, Week 4 is the swing game for the Buffaloes and one that could alter the entire trajectory of the 2012 season.
We're going through the Pac-12 and picking out one game that seems most important -- or potentially most revealing -- for each team from our vantage point today.
We're going in alphabetical order.
Colorado
Most important game: Sept. 22 at Washington State
Why it's important: Imagine it, Colorado fans, a 3-0 start. Colorado State, Sacramento State and Fresno State to open the season, and victories in those three games are achievable. Then it's off to Pullman where, no doubt, last year's collapse against the Cougars is still fresh in the minds of those in Boulder. Remember the 10-point lead with five minutes left in the game? Only to watch Marshall Lobbestael throw two touchdowns in the final two minutes -- including a 63-yarder to Marquess Wilson with 1:10 left to play -- en route to a 31-27 come-from-behind win.
This game could be the most pivotal of Colorado's season. If the Buffaloes start off 3-0, then get a victory in Pullman, they'll head home to face a still-uncertain UCLA team before the bye week. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Colorado to be -- wait for it -- 5-0 heading into the bye week. Of course, a lot of things have to fall into place for all of this to come together. And it might be a stretch -- but it's not a big stretch.
If the Buffaloes can take care of business in the first three games, they'll have plenty of motivation for revenge against Washington State, and a ton of confidence as they look to the second half of the season and the very real possibility of achieving a bowl game.
True, there is a bit of a rivalry growing between Colorado and Utah, seeing as both were Pac-12 newcomers last year and the Buffaloes stunned Utah last season. It's actually a renewal of the old rivalry between the two schools from the 19-teens, through 40s. Maybe in a few years, that rivalry will rekindle (though doubtful it will ever reach the status of the CU-Nebraska rivalry).
But for now, Week 4 is the swing game for the Buffaloes and one that could alter the entire trajectory of the 2012 season.
Shaw picks Alamar to run special teams
February, 24, 2012
Feb 24
2:25
PM ET
By
Kevin Gemmell | ESPN.com
On Thursday, Stanford head coach David Shaw said he would name his new special teams coach on Monday. Apparently, the news couldn't wait.
Shaw annouced Friday that Pete Alamar, a Pac-12 veteran of Cal and Arizona, would be Stanford's new special teams coordinator.
"Pete came highly recommended by people who I respect in the coaching profession," Shaw said in a statement. "He is one of those rare coaches who can coach not only scheme, but also the technique of snapping, punting and kicking."
Alamar replaces Brian Polian, who left Stanford last month to join Kevin Sumlin's staff at Texas A&M.
Alamar was the special teams coach at Cal from 2003-09. He was on staff at Arizona in 1993 and again from 1995-99. He spent the past two years coordinating special teams and coaching the tight ends at Fresno State. He has also worked as a running backs coach, on the offensive line and was the offensive coordinator at Eastern Michigan from 2000-02.
Stanford was neither bad nor great at special teams last year. Within the Pac-12, the Cardinal ranked 10th in punting, fourth in kickoff coverage, third in punt returns, fifth in field goals and seventh in PAT kicking.
There are some holes on the special teams units to fill. Punter David Green is gone, as is long-snapper Andrew Fowler. Kicker Jordan Williamson was second-team All-Pac-12 as a freshman. Ty Montgomery emerged as a solid kick returner and Drew Terrell, who was All-Pac-12 honorable mention, will likely continue punt return duties.
The hiring leaves Shaw with one vacancy on the staff. He said yesterday that he expects to name an inside linebackers coach sometime next week. He added that the new coach would not serve as co-defensive coordinator, as was the case with former coach Jason Tarver, who left earlier this month to be the defensive coordinator for the Oakland Raiders. Derek Mason will have full defensive coordinator responsibilities next season.
The Cardinal open the first of two spring football sessions on Monday.
Shaw annouced Friday that Pete Alamar, a Pac-12 veteran of Cal and Arizona, would be Stanford's new special teams coordinator.
"Pete came highly recommended by people who I respect in the coaching profession," Shaw said in a statement. "He is one of those rare coaches who can coach not only scheme, but also the technique of snapping, punting and kicking."
Alamar replaces Brian Polian, who left Stanford last month to join Kevin Sumlin's staff at Texas A&M.
Alamar was the special teams coach at Cal from 2003-09. He was on staff at Arizona in 1993 and again from 1995-99. He spent the past two years coordinating special teams and coaching the tight ends at Fresno State. He has also worked as a running backs coach, on the offensive line and was the offensive coordinator at Eastern Michigan from 2000-02.
Stanford was neither bad nor great at special teams last year. Within the Pac-12, the Cardinal ranked 10th in punting, fourth in kickoff coverage, third in punt returns, fifth in field goals and seventh in PAT kicking.
There are some holes on the special teams units to fill. Punter David Green is gone, as is long-snapper Andrew Fowler. Kicker Jordan Williamson was second-team All-Pac-12 as a freshman. Ty Montgomery emerged as a solid kick returner and Drew Terrell, who was All-Pac-12 honorable mention, will likely continue punt return duties.
The hiring leaves Shaw with one vacancy on the staff. He said yesterday that he expects to name an inside linebackers coach sometime next week. He added that the new coach would not serve as co-defensive coordinator, as was the case with former coach Jason Tarver, who left earlier this month to be the defensive coordinator for the Oakland Raiders. Derek Mason will have full defensive coordinator responsibilities next season.
The Cardinal open the first of two spring football sessions on Monday.
Some become college football fans to root for someone. Some become fans to root against someone.
This blog entry intends to help the latter.
You can find USA Today's graphic here on how the coaches voted in their final poll. It allows you to be outraged at the coaches who think the least of YOUR team.
Prepare your angry face.
Here's a neat one. Remember how Georgia ran -- quivering like a cornered kitten -- from a game contract with Oregon? Guess who voted the Ducks eighth, lower than any other coach? That would be Georgia's Mark Richt.
I bet he cackled when he did it ... and said, "Go Huskies."
And the coach of the Ducks' Rose Bowl opponent doesn't think too highly of Oregon. Wisconsin's Bret Bielema ranked the Ducks seventh, as did Baylor's Art Briles and San Diego State's Rocky Long.
As for Stanford, it was ranked sixth by three coaches: Fresno State's Pat Hill, Boise State's Chris Petersen and Buffalo's Jeff Quinn.
Stanford was fourth in the coaches' poll and Oregon was fifth.
Be angry. It's a great way to start off a Monday morning.
This blog entry intends to help the latter.
You can find USA Today's graphic here on how the coaches voted in their final poll. It allows you to be outraged at the coaches who think the least of YOUR team.
Prepare your angry face.
Here's a neat one. Remember how Georgia ran -- quivering like a cornered kitten -- from a game contract with Oregon? Guess who voted the Ducks eighth, lower than any other coach? That would be Georgia's Mark Richt.
I bet he cackled when he did it ... and said, "Go Huskies."
And the coach of the Ducks' Rose Bowl opponent doesn't think too highly of Oregon. Wisconsin's Bret Bielema ranked the Ducks seventh, as did Baylor's Art Briles and San Diego State's Rocky Long.
As for Stanford, it was ranked sixth by three coaches: Fresno State's Pat Hill, Boise State's Chris Petersen and Buffalo's Jeff Quinn.
Stanford was fourth in the coaches' poll and Oregon was fifth.
Be angry. It's a great way to start off a Monday morning.
It was an epic thrashing.
It was 31-zip at halftime. After Colorado scored its lone touchdown in the third quarter, California added three in the fourth.
Final tally: Cal 52, Colorado 7.
If you want to know why many Pac-10 fans don't think much of the Buffaloes entry into the Pac-12, it's that single game.
"It just seemed like everything that could go wrong, did go wrong," Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen said. "It was... bad."
He's right, starting with the three picks Hansen threw. Or how Cal's defensive line abused the Buffs offensive line, most shockingly whipping all-everything tackle Nate Solder a number of times.
New Colorado coach Jon Embree wasn't around for this bludgeoning, but the lost weekend in Berkeley is one of the reasons he's in Boulder now.
"That was one of the first things I heard about when I got hired here, about the Cal game, from our fans and from our players," he said.
Of course, one game doesn't define a team or a season. Cal looked like a physically dominant outfit in that outing, but four games later USC stomped the Bears 48-14.
Was that indicative of Cal's talent? Or just a horrible game? What about Cal's 35-7 loss to Oregon State? If any team in the Pac-12 should know about the vagaries of each Saturday, it should be Cal.
But Hansen said he isn't sure the Buffs will have the Bears' respect when they visit on Saturday.
"We talked about that in our meeting yesterday," Hansen said. "They think they are going to come in here -- yeah, they beat us by 45 points last year -- but they think they are going to come in here and do it again."
Maybe. Cal is coming off an impressive win over Fresno State, while the Buffs extended their road losing streak to 19 games at Hawaii. New Cal QB Zach Maynard shook off a first-drive interception and played well, and the Bears defense dominated the Bulldogs. The Buffs? It seemed like it took an entire half to wake up at Hawaii. Particularly disappointing was the play of the offensive line, which got pushed around.
"Up front, those guys need to get after it a lot better," Hansen said. "I think they were kind of lackadaisical up there. They need to get that mentality of being physical and getting after guys."
Over at Cal, coach Jeff Tedford said, "We haven't even talked about last year's game... We're going to have our hands full. We can't think about last year."
Another level of intrigue -- or just strangeness. This is a game between Pac-12 teams but it doesn't count in the Pac-12 standings. It was scheduled before expansion and will remain a nonconference game.
That really has nothing to do with preparation but, as Embree noted, "It is weird, though."
If there is one obvious area of concern for Cal, it would be Maynard making his first road start in an A-list venue. Folsom Field seats 53,000. Maynard's previous toughest road start came in 2009 at Central Florida in front of 33,000 when he was the starting QB for Buffalo. Further, Boulder's elevation -- 5,430 feet -- often taxes a visiting foe that lives closer to sea level.
For Cal, the game is all about this year. It's a little different for Colorado.
Said Hansen, "I think having last year's game in the back of our minds will help a lot."
It was 31-zip at halftime. After Colorado scored its lone touchdown in the third quarter, California added three in the fourth.
Final tally: Cal 52, Colorado 7.
If you want to know why many Pac-10 fans don't think much of the Buffaloes entry into the Pac-12, it's that single game.
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Kyle Terada/US PRESSWIREColorado got upended by Cal last season, losing 52-7 in Berkeley.
Kyle Terada/US PRESSWIREColorado got upended by Cal last season, losing 52-7 in Berkeley.He's right, starting with the three picks Hansen threw. Or how Cal's defensive line abused the Buffs offensive line, most shockingly whipping all-everything tackle Nate Solder a number of times.
New Colorado coach Jon Embree wasn't around for this bludgeoning, but the lost weekend in Berkeley is one of the reasons he's in Boulder now.
"That was one of the first things I heard about when I got hired here, about the Cal game, from our fans and from our players," he said.
Of course, one game doesn't define a team or a season. Cal looked like a physically dominant outfit in that outing, but four games later USC stomped the Bears 48-14.
Was that indicative of Cal's talent? Or just a horrible game? What about Cal's 35-7 loss to Oregon State? If any team in the Pac-12 should know about the vagaries of each Saturday, it should be Cal.
But Hansen said he isn't sure the Buffs will have the Bears' respect when they visit on Saturday.
"We talked about that in our meeting yesterday," Hansen said. "They think they are going to come in here -- yeah, they beat us by 45 points last year -- but they think they are going to come in here and do it again."
Maybe. Cal is coming off an impressive win over Fresno State, while the Buffs extended their road losing streak to 19 games at Hawaii. New Cal QB Zach Maynard shook off a first-drive interception and played well, and the Bears defense dominated the Bulldogs. The Buffs? It seemed like it took an entire half to wake up at Hawaii. Particularly disappointing was the play of the offensive line, which got pushed around.
"Up front, those guys need to get after it a lot better," Hansen said. "I think they were kind of lackadaisical up there. They need to get that mentality of being physical and getting after guys."
Over at Cal, coach Jeff Tedford said, "We haven't even talked about last year's game... We're going to have our hands full. We can't think about last year."
Another level of intrigue -- or just strangeness. This is a game between Pac-12 teams but it doesn't count in the Pac-12 standings. It was scheduled before expansion and will remain a nonconference game.
That really has nothing to do with preparation but, as Embree noted, "It is weird, though."
If there is one obvious area of concern for Cal, it would be Maynard making his first road start in an A-list venue. Folsom Field seats 53,000. Maynard's previous toughest road start came in 2009 at Central Florida in front of 33,000 when he was the starting QB for Buffalo. Further, Boulder's elevation -- 5,430 feet -- often taxes a visiting foe that lives closer to sea level.
For Cal, the game is all about this year. It's a little different for Colorado.
Said Hansen, "I think having last year's game in the back of our minds will help a lot."
Taking stock of the first week of games in Pac-12 history (and perhaps the last first weekend of games in Pac-12 history).
Team of the week: California was far from perfect in its 36-21 win over Fresno State -- the offensive line struggled at times -- but the Bears, singled out by some as a potential game one upset victim, made a solid statement against the Bulldogs that they might be a factor in the Pac-12 North Division. The biggest piece of news was the solid play of quarterback Zach Maynard. That he bounced back so well from an early interception might even be more meaningful. His two predecessors were known for letting mistakes linger and affect their performances.
Best game: It shouldn't have been a thriller, but Washington needed a late interception to outlast Eastern Washington 30-27. And it's worrisome that the Huskies were outgained by the Eagles 504 yards to 250. Hey, guys, how about a little pass defense?
Biggest play: Sure you've seen the highlight of UCLA receiver Nelson Rosario's 54-yard reception against Houston, ESPN's Play of the Day on Saturday, though it came in a losing effort. Rosario, turned around with his back to the endzone in tight coverage, grabbed the ball with his right hand, then trapped it on the back of the Cougars defender to make the catch. An instant classic. Now, Nelson, how about becoming consistent on routine plays?
Offensive standout: USC wide receiver Robert Woods caught a school-record 17 passes for 177 yards and three touchdowns in the Trojans' 19-17 win over Minnesota. A tip of the cap to Oregon State's true freshman running back Malcolm Agnew, who rushed for 223 and three TDs on 33 carries in the Beavers upset loss to Sacramento State.
Defensive standout: While Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict (three sacks) and Utah linebacker Brian Blechen (two interceptions) put up nice numbers versus FCS foes, Cal linebacker Mychal Kendricks piled up a game-high nine tackle with 2.5 coming for a loss -- the 0.5 was a sack -- against a solid Fresno State team. He also broke up a pass as the Bears held the Bulldogs to 218 yards and 11 first downs. It's possible the Bears will have the best defense in the conference.
Special teams standout: Washington kicker Erik Folk was 3 for 3 on field goals of 40-plus yards in the tight win over Eastern Washington, connecting on kicks of 53, 47 and 40 yards.
Smiley face: To the Bay Area. Both Cal and Stanford took care of business with solid performances. Sure, San Jose State isn't much, but Stanford was cruelly efficient in dispatching the Spartans. Cal surely raised more than a few eyebrows in the conference.
Frowny face: The state of Oregon. Both Oregon and Oregon State went down, though to very different foes in very different ways.
Thought of the week: Two things we thought we'd see on Saturday that we didn't: An improved UCLA defense and a strong performance from Colorado at Hawaii. The Buffs defense was pretty solid, though the Hawaii offense was rebuilding other than quarterback Bryant Moniz. But the offensive line is a big concern, giving up seven sacks and struggling to open holes for the running game. A struggling offensive line doesn't bode well for Cal's visit. As for the UCLA defense, it played much better in the second half at Houston. We'll see if the first half was an anomaly-- Case Keenum is a pretty good QB, after all -- or the start of a pattern of inconsistency.
Questions for the week: Welcome to "measuring stick" week. There are big nonconference games across the board that likely will establish how the Pac-12 is viewed nationally, particularly after a lackluster opening frame. Will the conference notch a couple of quality wins? Or will it get cut down and see its national perception plummet? Further, Utah's visit to USC is the first Pac-12 game in,well, history. Will the Utes immediately prove they belong?
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AP Photo/Jeff ChiuCalifornia quarterback Zach Maynard recovered nicely after an early interception.
AP Photo/Jeff ChiuCalifornia quarterback Zach Maynard recovered nicely after an early interception.Best game: It shouldn't have been a thriller, but Washington needed a late interception to outlast Eastern Washington 30-27. And it's worrisome that the Huskies were outgained by the Eagles 504 yards to 250. Hey, guys, how about a little pass defense?
Biggest play: Sure you've seen the highlight of UCLA receiver Nelson Rosario's 54-yard reception against Houston, ESPN's Play of the Day on Saturday, though it came in a losing effort. Rosario, turned around with his back to the endzone in tight coverage, grabbed the ball with his right hand, then trapped it on the back of the Cougars defender to make the catch. An instant classic. Now, Nelson, how about becoming consistent on routine plays?
Offensive standout: USC wide receiver Robert Woods caught a school-record 17 passes for 177 yards and three touchdowns in the Trojans' 19-17 win over Minnesota. A tip of the cap to Oregon State's true freshman running back Malcolm Agnew, who rushed for 223 and three TDs on 33 carries in the Beavers upset loss to Sacramento State.
Defensive standout: While Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict (three sacks) and Utah linebacker Brian Blechen (two interceptions) put up nice numbers versus FCS foes, Cal linebacker Mychal Kendricks piled up a game-high nine tackle with 2.5 coming for a loss -- the 0.5 was a sack -- against a solid Fresno State team. He also broke up a pass as the Bears held the Bulldogs to 218 yards and 11 first downs. It's possible the Bears will have the best defense in the conference.
Special teams standout: Washington kicker Erik Folk was 3 for 3 on field goals of 40-plus yards in the tight win over Eastern Washington, connecting on kicks of 53, 47 and 40 yards.
Smiley face: To the Bay Area. Both Cal and Stanford took care of business with solid performances. Sure, San Jose State isn't much, but Stanford was cruelly efficient in dispatching the Spartans. Cal surely raised more than a few eyebrows in the conference.
Frowny face: The state of Oregon. Both Oregon and Oregon State went down, though to very different foes in very different ways.
Thought of the week: Two things we thought we'd see on Saturday that we didn't: An improved UCLA defense and a strong performance from Colorado at Hawaii. The Buffs defense was pretty solid, though the Hawaii offense was rebuilding other than quarterback Bryant Moniz. But the offensive line is a big concern, giving up seven sacks and struggling to open holes for the running game. A struggling offensive line doesn't bode well for Cal's visit. As for the UCLA defense, it played much better in the second half at Houston. We'll see if the first half was an anomaly-- Case Keenum is a pretty good QB, after all -- or the start of a pattern of inconsistency.
Questions for the week: Welcome to "measuring stick" week. There are big nonconference games across the board that likely will establish how the Pac-12 is viewed nationally, particularly after a lackluster opening frame. Will the conference notch a couple of quality wins? Or will it get cut down and see its national perception plummet? Further, Utah's visit to USC is the first Pac-12 game in,well, history. Will the Utes immediately prove they belong?
Some quick notes to get you through the hours until Saturday. Many thanks to ESPN Stats & Information.
- While some have said that LSU losing QB Jordan Jefferson to suspension isn't a huge deal, that's not completely true. For one, there's mobility. Jefferson ran for 32 first downs last season, 14 of which came after he improvised from the original play. LSU will not have this element to its offense against Oregon, as Jarrett Lee’s career-high in rushing is one yard.
- Lee also has struggled to throw the ball downfield over the past two seasons, completing just 5 of 26 throws of 15+ yards.
- Oregon ran for only 75 yards in the BCS Championship Game. It was only the second time in the past two seasons the Ducks were held under 100 yards rushing. The other was in the Ducks' season opening loss to Boise State in 2009.
- Since 2009, Ducks running back LaMichael James has 36 runs of 20-plus yards, tops in the FBS.
- LSU's defense is talented, but it hasn't been infallible stopping a spread rushing attack. Auburn racked up 440 rushing yards on LSU last year.
- Oregon led FBS in 2010 with 45 touchdown drives that lasted two minutes or less. The Ducks also led FBS with 23 touchdown drives of three plays or fewer.
- Oregon scored 27 offensive touchdowns from 25 yards or longer last season, which tied Auburn for the most in the nation. The Ducks scored at least two or more of these touchdowns in nine games last season, also tied for the most in FBS.
- Washington and Eastern Washington and Washington State and Idaho State are meeting for the first time.
- USC is 72-27-3 (.721) all-time versus the Big Ten. It has won 11 in a row against the conference and 32 out of 40.
- 70 players on USC's 112-man roster have never taken a snap for the Trojans.
- UCLA has won five of six season openers. It's 3-2 all-time against Houston, including last year's 31-13 victory.
- This is Oregon State and Sacramento State's second meeting. The Beavers won 40-7 in 2003.
- Stanford is 49-14-1 against San Jose State, including a 42-17 win in 2009.
- Fresno State leads its series with California 2-0, including a 17-3 victory in 2000.
- Washington hasn't won a season opener since 2007 -- Jake Locker's debut at Syracuse. Eastern Washington is the defending FCS champion and is preseason No. 1 in FCS.
- Washington State hasn't been 1-0 since 2005.
Our oversimplification of the day is this: If QB Zach Maynard plays well this year, California has a successful season.
But more than a few Cal fans would nod their heads.
The Bears are solid to good at just about every position, starting with both lines. There's intriguing young talent to fortify the depth, particularly on defense. While the Pac-12 North Division looks rugged, there's enough here for the Bears to bounce back from a hugely disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2010, the first losing season in nine years under Jeff Tedford, the dean of conference coaches.
But Maynard, a transfer from Buffalo who'll make his debut against Fresno State on Saturday at Candlestick Park, said he doesn't feel any pressure. In fact, he kicks that line of questioning to the curb and segues into what he wants to talk about: How many are discounting the Bears.
"We're the underdogs right now," he said. "Nobody is saying anything about us. There's a lot of hype about other teams. Everybody's wondering what we're going to bring to the table. Everybody is going to find out when we start our first game and get into the season."
Here's what we're saying about Cal: It has to pass better. It ranked 89th in the nation in passing efficiency in 2010 and 94th in passing, with just 175 yards per game. That ain't going to cut it, particularly in the Pac-12, where superior QB play is required.
Tedford's reputation as a quarterbacks guru has taken some hits of late, but he seems to feel he's found his man. Tedford named Maynard the starter at the end of spring practices after he outplayed Brock Mansion and Allan Bridgford, who won the No. 2 spot, and part of that was so Maynard could start winning over the locker room as a leader.
"He's really stepped up and earned the team's respect," Tedford said.
Maynard passed for 2,694 yards with 18 TDs and 15 interception in 2009 for Buffalo and also rushed for 300 yards. Tedford likes his arm and his quick release, but he particularly likes his athletic ability.
"He has an escape dimension that we haven't had here in a while," Tedford said.
But it's not only an ability to escape pressure and scramble. It's an ability to create -- "Manufacture," Tedford says -- plays. There was a seeming tendency to panic that made Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley often throw the ball into the wrong place at the wrong time. Maynard has a bit of the cool-cat artist to him.
And if he's looking for a go-to guy, he's got one in true sophomore receiver Keenan Allen, and not just because Allen is super-talented. Allen is Maynard's half-brother and they are tight.
"It's like throwing in your backyard really," Maynard said. "You have a connection. You always know where he's going to be."
Maynard could be the key piece that gets Bears back into contention, and thereby mutes the increasingly vocal Tedford critics. But that's another topic Maynard kicks to the curb.
"I don't really hear anything about that," he said. "I don't get involved in the politics. I just go out and play ball and go to class."
But if he plays well, folks will start talking about Cal and Tedford (again), and they'll probably be saying nice things (again).
But more than a few Cal fans would nod their heads.
The Bears are solid to good at just about every position, starting with both lines. There's intriguing young talent to fortify the depth, particularly on defense. While the Pac-12 North Division looks rugged, there's enough here for the Bears to bounce back from a hugely disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2010, the first losing season in nine years under Jeff Tedford, the dean of conference coaches.
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AP Photo/Ben MargotNew Cal quarterback Zach Maynard passed for 2,694 yards and 18 touchdowns during his 2009 season with the University of Buffalo.
AP Photo/Ben MargotNew Cal quarterback Zach Maynard passed for 2,694 yards and 18 touchdowns during his 2009 season with the University of Buffalo."We're the underdogs right now," he said. "Nobody is saying anything about us. There's a lot of hype about other teams. Everybody's wondering what we're going to bring to the table. Everybody is going to find out when we start our first game and get into the season."
Here's what we're saying about Cal: It has to pass better. It ranked 89th in the nation in passing efficiency in 2010 and 94th in passing, with just 175 yards per game. That ain't going to cut it, particularly in the Pac-12, where superior QB play is required.
Tedford's reputation as a quarterbacks guru has taken some hits of late, but he seems to feel he's found his man. Tedford named Maynard the starter at the end of spring practices after he outplayed Brock Mansion and Allan Bridgford, who won the No. 2 spot, and part of that was so Maynard could start winning over the locker room as a leader.
"He's really stepped up and earned the team's respect," Tedford said.
Maynard passed for 2,694 yards with 18 TDs and 15 interception in 2009 for Buffalo and also rushed for 300 yards. Tedford likes his arm and his quick release, but he particularly likes his athletic ability.
"He has an escape dimension that we haven't had here in a while," Tedford said.
But it's not only an ability to escape pressure and scramble. It's an ability to create -- "Manufacture," Tedford says -- plays. There was a seeming tendency to panic that made Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley often throw the ball into the wrong place at the wrong time. Maynard has a bit of the cool-cat artist to him.
And if he's looking for a go-to guy, he's got one in true sophomore receiver Keenan Allen, and not just because Allen is super-talented. Allen is Maynard's half-brother and they are tight.
"It's like throwing in your backyard really," Maynard said. "You have a connection. You always know where he's going to be."
Maynard could be the key piece that gets Bears back into contention, and thereby mutes the increasingly vocal Tedford critics. But that's another topic Maynard kicks to the curb.
"I don't really hear anything about that," he said. "I don't get involved in the politics. I just go out and play ball and go to class."
But if he plays well, folks will start talking about Cal and Tedford (again), and they'll probably be saying nice things (again).
Pac-12 links: Thomas ready to lead Ducks
September, 1, 2011
9/01/11
2:30
PM ET
By
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
You've got to look at the guy next to you, look into his eyes. Now I think you're going to see a guy who will go that inch with you. You're gonna see a guy who will sacrifice himself for this team, because he knows when it comes down to it you're gonna do the same for him. That's a team, gentlemen, and either, we heal, now, as a team, or we will die as individuals. That's football guys, that's all it is. Now, what are you gonna do?
- Arizona running back Keola Antolin is rested and ready.
- Five things to watch in Arizona State's opener against UC Davis.
- California is healthy as it puts in final prep for Fresno State. Fans are excited about the freshmen.
- Colorado is concerned about Hawaii's defense. The Buffs pick up a quarterback transfer.
- Oregon has a big advantage against LSU at quarterback, where Darron Thomas is ready to lead. Is Oregon good because of its uniforms? Interesting analysis of the Ducks D vs. the LSU O: Note the line about the quarterbacks who have beaten Oregon the past two years: Kellen Moore, Andrew Luck, Terrelle Pryor and Cam Newton.
- Quarterback Ryan Katz is Oregon State's glue guy. Some Beavers notes.
- Andrew Luck isn't afraid to embrace the nerd inside him, at least if by "nerd" you mean "well-rounded, smart, humble."
- Houston quarterback Case Keenum will keep UCLA's cornerbacks busy. Meet the surprise starter at one safety spot.
- USC quarterback Matt Barkley has big goals. Lane Kiffin is worried about Minnesota.
- Utah quarterback Jordan Wynn isn't turning into a hippie; he's paying tribute to his grandmother. The Utes dress for success.
- Meet the man in the middle of Washington's defense.
- Washington State's redshirt freshmen are eager for action. A tight end might be ready to help the Cougs.
Ten issues to consider heading into the third week of games.
1. Oregon's biggest issue might not be LSU's D-front: In Phil Steele's unit rankings, he rated LSU's D-line 10th in the nation and its LBs 15th. There's no individual player as disruptive as Auburn's Nick Fairley, but LSU's Tigers are better across the entire front-7 than those Tigers. The Ducks could again struggle to run the ball. But the big problem is the LSU secondary, which Steele rates the nation's No. 4 unit. Auburn's secondary was weak all through 2010, and Ducks QB Darron Thomas picked it apart for 363 yards. But even though LSU lost first-round draft pick CB Patrick Peterson, their defensive backfield is deep and talented. Thomas won't find throwing into it as easy in any event, but particularly without his top-two receivers from a year ago.
2. Will UCLA catch a Case of Keenum? UCLA was dominating Houston last year when it knocked QB Case Keenum out of the game in the second quarter, but Keenum remains a guy who is good enough to win a game on his own. Still, the Bruins should be able to win the battle on both lines of scrimmage, and that should make things easier for QBs Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut, who both will play. Prince will be on the field to start the game. But will he be on the field to finish?
3. A Gray day for the USC defense: USC shouldn't have too many problems with Minnesota, but the biggest question is will the Trojans again show flashes of playing good defense. Golden Gophers QB MarQueis Gray is a bit of a mystery. He's being billed as a dual threat -- the sort who has given USC trouble in the past -- but he seems more like a 6-foot-4, 240-pound athlete who can run some option and scramble. His passing is decidedly questionable. The Trojans figure to crowd the line and dare Gray to throw. That means a secondary in man-coverage. Recall that the secondary got beaten a bunch in 2010.
4. Maynard debut: You look at California's depth chart and you think, "If these guys are any good at QB, they might be pretty tough." That's the pressure on Zach Maynard in his debut against a solid Fresno State team. If Maynard puts up good numbers, the Bears no longer will be so easy to write off in the Pac-12 North.
5. Buffs, hit Moniz: Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz put up huge numbers in 2010: 5,040 yards passing with 39 touchdowns. The Buffs secondary is suspect. Not a great combination. But a good way to protect a suspect secondary is with a good pass rush. While Moniz is a good athlete who can run, the best way for Colorado to end its 18-game road losing streak is to pound on Moniz and not give him time to throw. The good news on that: The Warriors have just three starters back on offense, one of whom is an offensive lineman.
6. The Price of confidence: Washington QB Keith Price makes his debut as Jake Locker's replacement against Eastern Washington, which is hardly a patsy. Sure, the Eagles are an FCS team. But they also are the defending FCS national champions and they are the preseason No. 1 team in FCS football. Warning! Warning! The key thing here is for the Huskies to show up focused and take care of business. For Price, he wants to play within himself, get comfortable and build his confidence because the competition will ramp up quickly.
7. Cougars grinning: Washington State is going to beat Idaho State. Not a big deal. What's a big deal is being 1-0 for the first time since 2005. What is a big deal is a team getting some early momentum, which it hasn't had in in coach Paul Wulff's first three seasons. The Cougs need to go out and pound on Idaho State. They need to walk away feeling good about themselves.
8. Luck and Shaw: Stanford is going to pound San Jose State. But the key thing for Cardinal interests is getting Luck some numbers and then sitting him, and letting Shaw get comfortable with his new job fronting the program.
9. Utah, Arizona State and Oregon State -- just win: The Utes, Sun Devils and Beavers each face weak, FCS foes. Each is going to win. And each faces a far more formidable foe the next week. The key is taking care of business, staying healthy and getting refocused. Starters eating orange slices in the third quarter is good, too.
10. Defense wins championships: OK, so what if LSU's defense thwarts Oregon's offense? The Tigers offense, particularly with Jarrett Lee at QB, is hardly scary. One of the often forgotten elements of the 2010 national title game against Auburn is the Ducks did about as good a job as anyone of slowing down QB Cam Newton. Lee is no Cam Newton. There is no law saying Oregon can't win a game 17-13. The LSU defense might stop the Ducks offense, but what if the Ducks defense is even more in control against perhaps the worst offense they will face all season?
1. Oregon's biggest issue might not be LSU's D-front: In Phil Steele's unit rankings, he rated LSU's D-line 10th in the nation and its LBs 15th. There's no individual player as disruptive as Auburn's Nick Fairley, but LSU's Tigers are better across the entire front-7 than those Tigers. The Ducks could again struggle to run the ball. But the big problem is the LSU secondary, which Steele rates the nation's No. 4 unit. Auburn's secondary was weak all through 2010, and Ducks QB Darron Thomas picked it apart for 363 yards. But even though LSU lost first-round draft pick CB Patrick Peterson, their defensive backfield is deep and talented. Thomas won't find throwing into it as easy in any event, but particularly without his top-two receivers from a year ago.
[+] Enlarge
Ric Tapia/Icon SMIOregon coach Chip Kelly will need to scheme around a tough LSU run defense and an even tougher pass defense.
Ric Tapia/Icon SMIOregon coach Chip Kelly will need to scheme around a tough LSU run defense and an even tougher pass defense.3. A Gray day for the USC defense: USC shouldn't have too many problems with Minnesota, but the biggest question is will the Trojans again show flashes of playing good defense. Golden Gophers QB MarQueis Gray is a bit of a mystery. He's being billed as a dual threat -- the sort who has given USC trouble in the past -- but he seems more like a 6-foot-4, 240-pound athlete who can run some option and scramble. His passing is decidedly questionable. The Trojans figure to crowd the line and dare Gray to throw. That means a secondary in man-coverage. Recall that the secondary got beaten a bunch in 2010.
4. Maynard debut: You look at California's depth chart and you think, "If these guys are any good at QB, they might be pretty tough." That's the pressure on Zach Maynard in his debut against a solid Fresno State team. If Maynard puts up good numbers, the Bears no longer will be so easy to write off in the Pac-12 North.
5. Buffs, hit Moniz: Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz put up huge numbers in 2010: 5,040 yards passing with 39 touchdowns. The Buffs secondary is suspect. Not a great combination. But a good way to protect a suspect secondary is with a good pass rush. While Moniz is a good athlete who can run, the best way for Colorado to end its 18-game road losing streak is to pound on Moniz and not give him time to throw. The good news on that: The Warriors have just three starters back on offense, one of whom is an offensive lineman.
6. The Price of confidence: Washington QB Keith Price makes his debut as Jake Locker's replacement against Eastern Washington, which is hardly a patsy. Sure, the Eagles are an FCS team. But they also are the defending FCS national champions and they are the preseason No. 1 team in FCS football. Warning! Warning! The key thing here is for the Huskies to show up focused and take care of business. For Price, he wants to play within himself, get comfortable and build his confidence because the competition will ramp up quickly.
7. Cougars grinning: Washington State is going to beat Idaho State. Not a big deal. What's a big deal is being 1-0 for the first time since 2005. What is a big deal is a team getting some early momentum, which it hasn't had in in coach Paul Wulff's first three seasons. The Cougs need to go out and pound on Idaho State. They need to walk away feeling good about themselves.
8. Luck and Shaw: Stanford is going to pound San Jose State. But the key thing for Cardinal interests is getting Luck some numbers and then sitting him, and letting Shaw get comfortable with his new job fronting the program.
9. Utah, Arizona State and Oregon State -- just win: The Utes, Sun Devils and Beavers each face weak, FCS foes. Each is going to win. And each faces a far more formidable foe the next week. The key is taking care of business, staying healthy and getting refocused. Starters eating orange slices in the third quarter is good, too.
10. Defense wins championships: OK, so what if LSU's defense thwarts Oregon's offense? The Tigers offense, particularly with Jarrett Lee at QB, is hardly scary. One of the often forgotten elements of the 2010 national title game against Auburn is the Ducks did about as good a job as anyone of slowing down QB Cam Newton. Lee is no Cam Newton. There is no law saying Oregon can't win a game 17-13. The LSU defense might stop the Ducks offense, but what if the Ducks defense is even more in control against perhaps the worst offense they will face all season?
Each Pac-12 plays this week, though for some just barely -- plenty of FCS foes.
The slate is, obviously, led by Oregon-LSU. Next week, things ramp up considerably.
Here's a quick look (all times ET).
Thursday, Sept. 1
Montana State at Utah, 8 p.m. (KJZZ): Utah should record a blowout in its first game as Pac-12 team. Will be interesting to see how well quarterback Jordan Wynn throws after shoulder surgery, but here's a guess he doesn't play four quarters. Up next: USC.
UC Davis at Arizona State, 10 p.m. (FS Arizona): The Sun Devils get a warmup before a marquee nonconference foe comes to town. Up next: Missouri (Friday).
Saturday
Minnesota at USC, 3:30 p.m. (ABC): Minnesota arrives with new coach Jerry Kill. Trojans should do exactly that against perennially rebuilding Big Ten foe. Up next: Utah.
UCLA at Houston, 3:30 p.m. (FSN): Bruins figure to get a full dose of Cougars quarterback Case Keenum, who had a season-ending knee injury in last season's game at the Rose Bowl. Bruins need to get out of gate fast. Up next: San Jose State.
Sacramento State at Oregon state, 4 p.m. (OSUBeavers.com): Oregon State gets a warmup game before a big nonconference trip. Needs to get healthy. Up next: at Wisconsin.
San Jose State at Stanford, 5 p.m. (CSNBA): The debut of new coach David Shaw. And the first date of Sir Andrew Luck's royal tour. Up next: at Duke.
Idaho State at Washington State, 5 p.m.: Cougars will be 1-0 for first time since 2005. Up next: UNLV.
E. Washington at Washington, 7 p.m. (Root NW): Huskies might want to take the defending FCS champs -- and preseason FCS No. 1 team -- seriously. Up next: Hawaii.
Fresno State versus California, (CSNCA): Cal and new quarterback Zach Maynard tries to get off to a fast start at Candlestick Park. Up next: at Colorado.
Oregon versus LSU, 8 p.m. (ABC): Winner might rise to No. 1. Which team overcomes offseason distractions and starts season with huge bang? Up next: Nevada.
Northern Arizona at Arizona, 10 p.m. (FS Arizona): Wildcats get warmup before big nonconference test, which is a good thing with five new starters on the offensive line. Up next: at Oklahoma State (Thursday)
Colorado at Hawaii, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2): Buffaloes try to end 17-game road losing streak in new coach Jon Embree's debut. Up next: California.
The slate is, obviously, led by Oregon-LSU. Next week, things ramp up considerably.
Here's a quick look (all times ET).
Thursday, Sept. 1
Montana State at Utah, 8 p.m. (KJZZ): Utah should record a blowout in its first game as Pac-12 team. Will be interesting to see how well quarterback Jordan Wynn throws after shoulder surgery, but here's a guess he doesn't play four quarters. Up next: USC.
UC Davis at Arizona State, 10 p.m. (FS Arizona): The Sun Devils get a warmup before a marquee nonconference foe comes to town. Up next: Missouri (Friday).
Saturday
Minnesota at USC, 3:30 p.m. (ABC): Minnesota arrives with new coach Jerry Kill. Trojans should do exactly that against perennially rebuilding Big Ten foe. Up next: Utah.
UCLA at Houston, 3:30 p.m. (FSN): Bruins figure to get a full dose of Cougars quarterback Case Keenum, who had a season-ending knee injury in last season's game at the Rose Bowl. Bruins need to get out of gate fast. Up next: San Jose State.
Sacramento State at Oregon state, 4 p.m. (OSUBeavers.com): Oregon State gets a warmup game before a big nonconference trip. Needs to get healthy. Up next: at Wisconsin.
San Jose State at Stanford, 5 p.m. (CSNBA): The debut of new coach David Shaw. And the first date of Sir Andrew Luck's royal tour. Up next: at Duke.
Idaho State at Washington State, 5 p.m.: Cougars will be 1-0 for first time since 2005. Up next: UNLV.
E. Washington at Washington, 7 p.m. (Root NW): Huskies might want to take the defending FCS champs -- and preseason FCS No. 1 team -- seriously. Up next: Hawaii.
Fresno State versus California, (CSNCA): Cal and new quarterback Zach Maynard tries to get off to a fast start at Candlestick Park. Up next: at Colorado.
Oregon versus LSU, 8 p.m. (ABC): Winner might rise to No. 1. Which team overcomes offseason distractions and starts season with huge bang? Up next: Nevada.
Northern Arizona at Arizona, 10 p.m. (FS Arizona): Wildcats get warmup before big nonconference test, which is a good thing with five new starters on the offensive line. Up next: at Oklahoma State (Thursday)
Colorado at Hawaii, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2): Buffaloes try to end 17-game road losing streak in new coach Jon Embree's debut. Up next: California.
Third in a series looking at potential dream and nightmare scenarios for all Pac-12 teams.
Understand: These are not predictions. They are extreme scenarios and pieces of fiction. You can read last year's versions here.
We're going in reverse order of my post-spring power rankings (which might not be identical to my preseason power rankings).
Up next: California
Best case
California fans were giddy well before Zach Maynard completed his 24th consecutive pass against Fresno State in Candlestick Park, but just about everyone wearing blue knew whose revered name had just been knocked from atop the school record book during a 38-17 victory.
"That's true," said Cal coach Jeff Tedford. "But Maynard runs a lot better than Aaron Rodgers did, so I don't want to compare them."
Colorado was eager to take vengeance for an embarrassing 52-7 loss in Berkeley the year before, but it couldn't stop Maynard and his half-brother Keenan Allen, who caught 11 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-19 victory in Boulder.
After beating the Fighting Blue Hose of Presbyterian 103-4 -- third string centers with bad shotgun snaps! -- the Bears head to Seattle to take on Washington, which has won two consecutive games in the series, the first an embarrassing blowout, the second on a last-second TD that handed Cal a losing record for the first time in nine years under Tedford.
Maynard throws three TD passes, Isi Sofele and Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson both eclipse 100 yards rushing and the Bears defense sacks Huskies QB Keith Price four times in a 31-13 drubbing.
"I am struggling with this," types GooooooooooBEARS -- a longtime anti-Tedford gadfly -- in the comments section of the Pac-12 Blog. "For so long, I have been hating on Tedford. But... well. I just need to be alone for a little bit to get back in touch with myself."
A 15,000-word essay appears on the California Golden Blogs -- complete with 15 different charts and graphs -- that claims to mathematically prove that Maynard is the reincarnation of Samuel Adrian "Slingin' Sammy" Baugh.
"It actually pencils out nicely," says Tsit-Yuen Lam, Berkeley Mathematics Professor of the Graduate School Emeritus. "I still think Tedford should go for it on fourth down more often, but that's a topic for another day."
The Bears go nose-to-nose with No. 1 Oregon before falling 24-20, becoming the first team to hold the Ducks below 50 points.
A 55-yard field goal with four seconds left from Giorgia Tavecchio bests USC, 27-24. After a 30-20 win over Utah, the 6-1 Bears move up to 10th in both major polls.
The Old Blues starting thinking Rose Bowl. But those dreams get torn apart during a mistake-laden upset loss at UCLA. Fans consider a bandwagon jump.
"Hey, gang, I recommend keeping a level head," types GooooooooooBEARS. "We love our team. We love our coach. We must have faith and support them. Unite, Blues! We've only begun to fight!"
The Bears pound Washington State and Oregon State, which sets up the Biggest of Big Games against No. 1 Stanford, which is fresh off a victory over previously-No. 1 Oregon.
Tedford walks into a team meeting on Monday. He wordless flips on cut-ups of the 2010 Big Game, which featured Cal picking a pre-game fight then showing no fight while the Cardinal bludgeoned the Bears 48-14, Stanford's most lopsided win in the rivalry in 80 years. He shows QB Andrew Luck running over safety Sean Cattouse. He shows a post-game interview of then-Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh: "Our guys really kept their cool and I think that was a big difference today. They kept their poise. I don't like that kind of football where you try and talk and intimidate. ... Just play football. Shut up and play football."
Tedford then turns to his team: "Shut up and play football."
Cal upsets the Cardinal 35-27, with Cattouse sealing the deal with an 87-yard interception return of a Luck pass.
The Bears nip Arizona State to finish the regular season 10-2. They then whip Texas 45-3 in the Alamo Bowl. Cal fans spend most of the game, which was decided by halftime, serenading Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who in 2004 talked his team into the Rose Bowl over a more deserving Cal squad.
Cal earns a final No. 9 ranking.
Wisconsin blows out Stanford in the Rose Bowl, and immediately thereafter offensive linemen Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro as well as linebackers Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas opt to join Luck in the NFL draft a year early. Coach David Shaw steps down to pursue a career on Wall Street, and athletic director Bob Bowlsby brings back Walt Harris, "to take care of unfinished business."
Worst case
Zach Maynard was brilliant for three quarters. Then, early in the fourth against Fresno State, he falls awkwardly out of bounds.
Cal wins 28-20, but Maynard suffers what is notoriously called a "high ankle sprain."
Brock Mansion gets the start at Colorado, and the Buffaloes get their revenge for their 2010 beatdown in Berkeley, beating the Bears 24-21.
After pounding Presbyterian, Cal falls 28-20 at Washington.
"I think we'll get Zach back after the bye week at Oregon," says a hopeful Jeff Tedford.
Maynard does return at Autzen Stadium, but he's sacked six times and is noticeably limping in the fourth quarter. He also throws two interceptions.
With Mansion back under center for Cal, USC rolls over the Bears inside half-empty AT&T Park. At 2-4, things start to get tense in Berkeley.
"Is it just me, or are things tense in Berkeley?" a one sentence post on the California Golden Blogs queries.
Tedford opts to start Allan Bridgford against Utah, and Bridgford is solid in a 28-24 victory. He then leads the Bears to a win at UCLA, which evens their record at 4-4, but he gets hurt in the second quarter against Washington State. Maynard comes off the bench but isn't sharp. The Cougars prevail on a late Jeff Tuel TD pass.
The first "Cal needs to fire Tedford" column appears in the San Jose Mercury News. The column says, "Tedford led the Bears back from oblivion, but then he hit a plateau. Instead of rising above that plateau, the program has redirected to another unhappy valley. Credit Tedford for what he accomplished but he must be held accountable for what he hasn't. Not only has he failed to maintain a winning program, he now has led it back to losing."
Tedford refuses to engage the topic, but his players rally around him and beat Oregon State 20-17, kicker Giorgio Tavecchio giving Tedford the game ball after he kicked a late winning field goal.
But that rally doesn't last through the Big Game. David Shaw, coach of unbeaten, top-ranked Stanford, perhaps showing a bit more mercy than his predecessor, yanks his starters early in the fourth quarter of a 38-10 victory.
The Bears, with Maynard at quarterback and still needing just one win to earn bowl eligibility, play with surprising verve at Arizona State. But they fall 24-20
"It's not Coach Tedford's fault," receiver Keenan Allen says after a second-consecutive 5-7 finish. "Players win or lose games. And if we'd had Zach healthy the entire season, we'd have won a lot more games and we wouldn't be having this conversation."
But too many Cal fans have turned against Tedford. Athletic director Sandy Barbour announces that "with great regret" she is terminating him.
Tedford sits out a year before being hired by the Oakland Raiders, whom he leads to a victory in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Stanford wins the national championship, whipping Alabama 41-10.
"What the heck -- I'm coming back!" announces quarterback Andrew Luck, which inspires every Cardinal to do the same and not leave early for the NFL draft.
Barbour hires Eugene F. Teevens III -- most know him as "Buddy" -- to replace Tedford. "I thought he was so close to doing some good things at Stanford," Barbour explains.
Understand: These are not predictions. They are extreme scenarios and pieces of fiction. You can read last year's versions here.
We're going in reverse order of my post-spring power rankings (which might not be identical to my preseason power rankings).
Up next: California
Best case
California fans were giddy well before Zach Maynard completed his 24th consecutive pass against Fresno State in Candlestick Park, but just about everyone wearing blue knew whose revered name had just been knocked from atop the school record book during a 38-17 victory.
"That's true," said Cal coach Jeff Tedford. "But Maynard runs a lot better than Aaron Rodgers did, so I don't want to compare them."
Colorado was eager to take vengeance for an embarrassing 52-7 loss in Berkeley the year before, but it couldn't stop Maynard and his half-brother Keenan Allen, who caught 11 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-19 victory in Boulder.
After beating the Fighting Blue Hose of Presbyterian 103-4 -- third string centers with bad shotgun snaps! -- the Bears head to Seattle to take on Washington, which has won two consecutive games in the series, the first an embarrassing blowout, the second on a last-second TD that handed Cal a losing record for the first time in nine years under Tedford.
Maynard throws three TD passes, Isi Sofele and Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson both eclipse 100 yards rushing and the Bears defense sacks Huskies QB Keith Price four times in a 31-13 drubbing.
"I am struggling with this," types GooooooooooBEARS -- a longtime anti-Tedford gadfly -- in the comments section of the Pac-12 Blog. "For so long, I have been hating on Tedford. But... well. I just need to be alone for a little bit to get back in touch with myself."
A 15,000-word essay appears on the California Golden Blogs -- complete with 15 different charts and graphs -- that claims to mathematically prove that Maynard is the reincarnation of Samuel Adrian "Slingin' Sammy" Baugh.
"It actually pencils out nicely," says Tsit-Yuen Lam, Berkeley Mathematics Professor of the Graduate School Emeritus. "I still think Tedford should go for it on fourth down more often, but that's a topic for another day."
The Bears go nose-to-nose with No. 1 Oregon before falling 24-20, becoming the first team to hold the Ducks below 50 points.
A 55-yard field goal with four seconds left from Giorgia Tavecchio bests USC, 27-24. After a 30-20 win over Utah, the 6-1 Bears move up to 10th in both major polls.
The Old Blues starting thinking Rose Bowl. But those dreams get torn apart during a mistake-laden upset loss at UCLA. Fans consider a bandwagon jump.
"Hey, gang, I recommend keeping a level head," types GooooooooooBEARS. "We love our team. We love our coach. We must have faith and support them. Unite, Blues! We've only begun to fight!"
The Bears pound Washington State and Oregon State, which sets up the Biggest of Big Games against No. 1 Stanford, which is fresh off a victory over previously-No. 1 Oregon.
Tedford walks into a team meeting on Monday. He wordless flips on cut-ups of the 2010 Big Game, which featured Cal picking a pre-game fight then showing no fight while the Cardinal bludgeoned the Bears 48-14, Stanford's most lopsided win in the rivalry in 80 years. He shows QB Andrew Luck running over safety Sean Cattouse. He shows a post-game interview of then-Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh: "Our guys really kept their cool and I think that was a big difference today. They kept their poise. I don't like that kind of football where you try and talk and intimidate. ... Just play football. Shut up and play football."
Tedford then turns to his team: "Shut up and play football."
Cal upsets the Cardinal 35-27, with Cattouse sealing the deal with an 87-yard interception return of a Luck pass.
The Bears nip Arizona State to finish the regular season 10-2. They then whip Texas 45-3 in the Alamo Bowl. Cal fans spend most of the game, which was decided by halftime, serenading Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who in 2004 talked his team into the Rose Bowl over a more deserving Cal squad.
Cal earns a final No. 9 ranking.
Wisconsin blows out Stanford in the Rose Bowl, and immediately thereafter offensive linemen Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro as well as linebackers Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas opt to join Luck in the NFL draft a year early. Coach David Shaw steps down to pursue a career on Wall Street, and athletic director Bob Bowlsby brings back Walt Harris, "to take care of unfinished business."
Worst case
Zach Maynard was brilliant for three quarters. Then, early in the fourth against Fresno State, he falls awkwardly out of bounds.
Cal wins 28-20, but Maynard suffers what is notoriously called a "high ankle sprain."
Brock Mansion gets the start at Colorado, and the Buffaloes get their revenge for their 2010 beatdown in Berkeley, beating the Bears 24-21.
After pounding Presbyterian, Cal falls 28-20 at Washington.
"I think we'll get Zach back after the bye week at Oregon," says a hopeful Jeff Tedford.
Maynard does return at Autzen Stadium, but he's sacked six times and is noticeably limping in the fourth quarter. He also throws two interceptions.
With Mansion back under center for Cal, USC rolls over the Bears inside half-empty AT&T Park. At 2-4, things start to get tense in Berkeley.
"Is it just me, or are things tense in Berkeley?" a one sentence post on the California Golden Blogs queries.
Tedford opts to start Allan Bridgford against Utah, and Bridgford is solid in a 28-24 victory. He then leads the Bears to a win at UCLA, which evens their record at 4-4, but he gets hurt in the second quarter against Washington State. Maynard comes off the bench but isn't sharp. The Cougars prevail on a late Jeff Tuel TD pass.
The first "Cal needs to fire Tedford" column appears in the San Jose Mercury News. The column says, "Tedford led the Bears back from oblivion, but then he hit a plateau. Instead of rising above that plateau, the program has redirected to another unhappy valley. Credit Tedford for what he accomplished but he must be held accountable for what he hasn't. Not only has he failed to maintain a winning program, he now has led it back to losing."
Tedford refuses to engage the topic, but his players rally around him and beat Oregon State 20-17, kicker Giorgio Tavecchio giving Tedford the game ball after he kicked a late winning field goal.
But that rally doesn't last through the Big Game. David Shaw, coach of unbeaten, top-ranked Stanford, perhaps showing a bit more mercy than his predecessor, yanks his starters early in the fourth quarter of a 38-10 victory.
The Bears, with Maynard at quarterback and still needing just one win to earn bowl eligibility, play with surprising verve at Arizona State. But they fall 24-20
"It's not Coach Tedford's fault," receiver Keenan Allen says after a second-consecutive 5-7 finish. "Players win or lose games. And if we'd had Zach healthy the entire season, we'd have won a lot more games and we wouldn't be having this conversation."
But too many Cal fans have turned against Tedford. Athletic director Sandy Barbour announces that "with great regret" she is terminating him.
Tedford sits out a year before being hired by the Oakland Raiders, whom he leads to a victory in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Stanford wins the national championship, whipping Alabama 41-10.
"What the heck -- I'm coming back!" announces quarterback Andrew Luck, which inspires every Cardinal to do the same and not leave early for the NFL draft.
Barbour hires Eugene F. Teevens III -- most know him as "Buddy" -- to replace Tedford. "I thought he was so close to doing some good things at Stanford," Barbour explains.
So you lost your job? I've lost twenty of them since graduation. Plus a wife and kid. And, in a new development this morning, a handful of hair in the shower drain.
- Arizona is thinking big with a stadium improvement. Really big. Previewing the Wildcats' defensive line.
- Is Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict ready to take his game to a different level?
- California's opener with Fresno State will kickoff at 4 p.m. PDT.
- Pac-12? Colorado is hitting Texas hard in recruiting, and is seeing results. More on a new commitment.
- Mike Bellotti talks about Oregon, Chip Kelly and the Willie Lyles imbroglio, which he thinks will lead to some sort of sanctions. Tickets are available, but not many.
- Kirkpatrick and Buker continue to malinger on the Oregon State beat -- heard Buker was summering at his home in St. Barts.
- Some thoughts on Andrew Luck and the Heisman Trophy. Some Cardinal players to watch.
- Previewing UCLA opponents: Texas. Who is the Bruin known as "Jet Ski"?
- One of the nation's top recruiters, Ed Orgeron's job is to sell USC. Trojans opponent preview: Syracuse.
- To stay out of the Pac-12 basement, Washington State will need to win on the road.
- Ranking the Pac-12 coaches from a Utah perspective.
California fans: Are you dying to check out the progress of the Memorial Stadium construction? Now you can... live!
Cal has set up a publicly accessible vista point along the east side of the facility. If that doesn't fully explain things, well, here are some photos.
The vista point, which will be open during construction hours, is located near the northeast corner of the facility off Stadium Rim Way and just below Tightwad Hill. Normal construction hours for the project are 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. weekdays (PDT), and 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturdays and numerous Sundays. Hours may by adjusted without notice by the construction team.
While Memorial Stadium is under construction, the Bears will move to AT&T Park for their home games this fall, in addition to playing a neutral-site game vs. Fresno State in the TicketCity Battle by the Bay at Candlestick Park on Sept. 3.
Cal has set up a publicly accessible vista point along the east side of the facility. If that doesn't fully explain things, well, here are some photos.
The vista point, which will be open during construction hours, is located near the northeast corner of the facility off Stadium Rim Way and just below Tightwad Hill. Normal construction hours for the project are 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. weekdays (PDT), and 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturdays and numerous Sundays. Hours may by adjusted without notice by the construction team.
While Memorial Stadium is under construction, the Bears will move to AT&T Park for their home games this fall, in addition to playing a neutral-site game vs. Fresno State in the TicketCity Battle by the Bay at Candlestick Park on Sept. 3.
We'll be reviewing each Pac-12 team's schedule, starting with the North Division.
Up first: California
Breakdown: six home (four conference games), six road (five conference games)
Nonconference opponents (with 2010 records)
Sept. 3 Fresno State (8-5)
Sept. 10 Colorado (5-7)*
Sept. 17 Presbyterian (2-9)
*The date at Colorado, which was scheduled before the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12, will count as a nonconference game.
North Division games
Sept. 24 at Washington
Oct. 6 at Oregon
Nov. 5 Washington State
Nov. 12 Oregon State
Nov. 19 at Stanford
Crossover South Division games
Oct. 13 USC
Oct. 22 Utah
Oct. 29 at UCLA
Nov. 25 at Arizona State
Conference misses
Colorado
Arizona
Key stretch: Most teams are better at home than on the road, but California often takes that truism to another level. Of course, while the Memorial Stadium renovation is going on, Cal won't really play at home this season. So it will be interesting to see how well the Bears do from Oct. 13 to Nov. 12 when they play four of five at their home-away-from-home, AT&T Park. Further, the lone road game, at UCLA, is certainly winnable.
Trap game: Cal crushed Colorado 52-7 last year, so Bears players and fans might be expecting an easy trip to Boulder on Sept. 10. Here's some advice: don't. The Buffaloes didn't show up in Berkeley, but that performance isn't indicative of the talent on this team. And, Golden Bears, you do know a few things about laying eggs and looking overmatched on the road when the talent ledger suggests you are not.
Sure thing: Presbyterian is not only an FCS team, it is a bad FCS team. The Bears should be able to win 100-0 if they so wish.
Analysis: Five of nine conference games are on the road. Playing at Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State means the Bears might have the toughest road schedule in the conference. Further, the opening four conference games are brutal: at Washington, at Oregon, USC and Utah. That said, most would project a 3-0 start, which could help the Bears -- and new starting QB Zach Maynard -- gain confidence. If they could steal one at Washington, and manage a split with USC and Utah, then they'd be one win from bowl eligibility as the schedule softens a bit. Still, the last two games -- at Stanford and Arizona State, back-to-back -- is a rugged, potentially momentum-killing way to end a season.
Up first: California
Breakdown: six home (four conference games), six road (five conference games)
Nonconference opponents (with 2010 records)
Sept. 3 Fresno State (8-5)
Sept. 10 Colorado (5-7)*
Sept. 17 Presbyterian (2-9)
*The date at Colorado, which was scheduled before the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12, will count as a nonconference game.
North Division games
Sept. 24 at Washington
Oct. 6 at Oregon
Nov. 5 Washington State
Nov. 12 Oregon State
Nov. 19 at Stanford
Crossover South Division games
Oct. 13 USC
Oct. 22 Utah
Oct. 29 at UCLA
Nov. 25 at Arizona State
Conference misses
Colorado
Arizona
Key stretch: Most teams are better at home than on the road, but California often takes that truism to another level. Of course, while the Memorial Stadium renovation is going on, Cal won't really play at home this season. So it will be interesting to see how well the Bears do from Oct. 13 to Nov. 12 when they play four of five at their home-away-from-home, AT&T Park. Further, the lone road game, at UCLA, is certainly winnable.
Trap game: Cal crushed Colorado 52-7 last year, so Bears players and fans might be expecting an easy trip to Boulder on Sept. 10. Here's some advice: don't. The Buffaloes didn't show up in Berkeley, but that performance isn't indicative of the talent on this team. And, Golden Bears, you do know a few things about laying eggs and looking overmatched on the road when the talent ledger suggests you are not.
Sure thing: Presbyterian is not only an FCS team, it is a bad FCS team. The Bears should be able to win 100-0 if they so wish.
Analysis: Five of nine conference games are on the road. Playing at Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State means the Bears might have the toughest road schedule in the conference. Further, the opening four conference games are brutal: at Washington, at Oregon, USC and Utah. That said, most would project a 3-0 start, which could help the Bears -- and new starting QB Zach Maynard -- gain confidence. If they could steal one at Washington, and manage a split with USC and Utah, then they'd be one win from bowl eligibility as the schedule softens a bit. Still, the last two games -- at Stanford and Arizona State, back-to-back -- is a rugged, potentially momentum-killing way to end a season.
What seemed clear at the end of spring practices was made crystal Saturday by California coach Jeff Tedford: Zach Maynard is going to be the Bears' starting quarterback.
“Zach showed a tremendous amount of upside during spring practice and is the quarterback that gives us the best opportunity to win football games,” coach Jeff Tedford said in a statement. “He has the ability to both throw and run the ball effectively, giving us another dimension at that position that we haven’t had in a while.”
The mobility, in particular, seemed to give Maynard an edge. He gives the Bears spread-option possibilities as well as a weapon when plays break down, which Brock Mansion and Allan Bridgford do not. The post-spring depth chart will list an "or" between Mansion and Bridgford, which is clearly a challenge to both not to slack off after losing the battle for the starting job. There certainly are no guarantees that Maynard will start all 12 games.
Maynard, a junior, was the starter at Buffalo in 2009, and he completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 2,694 yards with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He also rushed for 300 yards. His half-brother, Keenan Allen, is a budding star at receiver.
Couple of notable elements here:
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Kevin Hoffman/US PresswireZach Maynard, shown playing for Buffalo against Pittsburgh in 2009, will open the fall as Cal's starter.
Kevin Hoffman/US PresswireZach Maynard, shown playing for Buffalo against Pittsburgh in 2009, will open the fall as Cal's starter.The mobility, in particular, seemed to give Maynard an edge. He gives the Bears spread-option possibilities as well as a weapon when plays break down, which Brock Mansion and Allan Bridgford do not. The post-spring depth chart will list an "or" between Mansion and Bridgford, which is clearly a challenge to both not to slack off after losing the battle for the starting job. There certainly are no guarantees that Maynard will start all 12 games.
Maynard, a junior, was the starter at Buffalo in 2009, and he completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 2,694 yards with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He also rushed for 300 yards. His half-brother, Keenan Allen, is a budding star at receiver.
Couple of notable elements here:
- This was Tedford's call based on thorough observation. While that might seem like it has a "duh" factor to it, the point is Tedford was more involved with the quarterbacks this spring than he has been in recent years, both in meetings and on the practice field.
- You'd think this might signal some tweaks to the Bears' offense that take advantage of Maynard's athleticism. Most likely: Some spread-option elements that force defense to account for quarterback runs. It also seems likely that Maynard won't be asked to be a pure pocket passer, which means more roll outs with run-pass options.
- Maynard will be immediately thrown into the competitive fire against Fresno State and on a nonconference trip to Colorado. It might have been nice to play Game 3 foe -- the doughty Blue Hose of Presbyterian -- first, so Maynard could get his feet under him.
- That said: Experience probably helped Maynard. While Mansion was the quarterback of record during Cal's late-season slide -- experience, but not exactly the impressive sort -- Maynard owns 11 FBS starts, even if Buffalo isn't exactly the Pac-12. Bridgford, perhaps the best pure passer of the troika, has no experience.
- Some links on the story: The Contra Costa Times. The San Francisco Chronicle. Berkeley's student paper. And the official release.

