Pac-12: Joe Cox
Who's going to win? Week 4 Pac-10 picks
Went a mediocre 6-3 for the second consecutive week, and the season record stands at a tepid 19-7.
Yeesh.
The Pac-10 is presently 19-6 in all nonconference games. It's 15-6 vs. FBS schools and 6-4 vs. other BCS conferences.
Only the SEC has been better thus far --14-2 vs. FBS and 5-2 vs. BCS conferences.
Arizona State, by the way, visits Georgia on Saturday in the rubber-game of the conferences' three-game series.
To the picks.
California 30, Oregon 24: A big game for both teams with season-long ramifications. Cal is the new Pac-10 front-runner. Oregon would put the inglorious game at Boise State completely behind it with a win. The difference here is a mature quarterback Kevin Riley managing the game for the Bears -- and at least one big play for running back Jahvid Best.
Georgia 27, Arizona State 17: The Georgia offense has taken off of late with quarterback Joe Cox, but the Sun Devils will counter with the best defense the Bulldogs have seen. The bigger question is can the Sun Devils score on the road Between the Hedges? Even though the Bulldogs defense has been porous early, the guess here is those mental mistakes will get corrected and the crowd will make things tough for the young crew from Tempe.
Oregon State 24, Arizona 21: Switched this pick twice. Final verdict: Go with the home team. That said, the Wildcats' defense will give the Beavers loads of trouble. Curious to see if Arizona's passing offense will advance much after the switch from Matt Scott to Nick Foles. Probably some but just not enough.
Stanford 31, Washington 28: Another tough one to get a feel for. Now Washington is the team on let-down alert, while Stanford probably feels a sense of urgency with a game that looked like a gimme for its bowl hopes during the preseason. Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck, plus running back Toby Gerhart plus the Huskies making their first road trip will make the difference.
USC 44, Washington State 10: Both teams have injury issues, but the Trojans are just a wee bit deeper. And they should be angry about how things went last week at Washington. Still, doubt this one will be anything close to the 69-zip Coug nightmare in Pullman last year.
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
After a strong showing in nonconference games, the Pac-10 slate gets rolling in earnest this week, with a couple of marquee matchups in Oregon. Oh, and there's a little nonconference game down south.
1. Jahvid Best vs. the Oregon run defense: Lots of defensive coordinators say stopping the run is the first priority, but Oregon's defense is more obsessed with it than most -- a big reason they've yielded significant passing yards through the years, despite the presence of a handful of NFL-quality defensive backs. Yet this year the run defense has been just fair-to-middling, see 151 yards surrendered per game, which ranks eighth in the Pac-10. No runner in the country stresses a defense more than Cal's Best, who's trying to make a Heisman Trophy statement.
2. Danny Sullivan making his first road start at Georgia: Arizona State fans have been wringing their hands over Sullivan since Rudy Carpenter trudged off at the end of the disappointing 2008 season. Even a solid spring and frequent praise from coach Dennis Erickson hasn't helped win over skeptical fans. Sullivan hasn't done much early on, in large part because he hasn't had to. Well, he'll have to at Georgia, though the Bulldogs' defense is yielding 406 yards and 34 points per game and won't be nearly as good as what Sullivan will see in Pac-10 play. Sullivan's biggest adjustment will be dealing with 93,000 screaming Bulldogs fans who don't like him much.
3. Will Nick Foles bolster the Arizona passing game? Arizona ranks ninth in the conference in passing with just 167 yards per game. That won't cut it, and that's why Mike Stoops replaced Matt Scott with Foles. The Wildcats have a nice run game, but without balance, conference teams will just gang up on Nic Grigsby and dare the quarterback to throw. Foles is a better pure passer than Scott. He'll have an opportunity to make a claim for the full-time job against a questionable Oregon State secondary and pass rush.
4. Washington on letdown alert: The "letdown" game is a college football cliche, but it's a cliche because it happens so often. Teams that win big games tend to relax or lose focus -- just ask the USC team the Huskies beat. If USC isn't good enough to win while unfocused, Washington certainly isn't either. If the Huskies manage to win at a solid Stanford team, however, there will no longer be any question over whether they are a legitimate conference contender and potential bowl team -- they will be, a year after going 0-12. And one of the biggest stories of the season will only get bigger.
5. USC QB play: So Matt Barkley will start vs. Washington State? Will that solve everything? And, if so, will that allow us to stop talking about the USC quarterbacks for a day or two?
6. Washington State's fight: You never say never in college football, but it would be beyond shocking if Washington State upset USC in the Coliseum a year after losing 69-0 at home, particularly with the Trojans coming off an embarrassing loss at Washington. Not to mention that the Cougars are -- again -- ravaged by injuries. Yet, if Washington State scraps and claws and keeps the final tally respectable -- say within three TDs -- it will distinguish the Cougars of 2009 vs. 2008. Last year, the Cougs quit. That's the thing they cannot do if they expect to keep the heat off coach Paul Wulff.
7. ASU's defense vs. Joe Cox: Georgia fans were all over Cox after the Bulldogs were dominated by the Oklahoma State defense in the opener, but Cox played better in Game 2 against South Carolina and was lights out at Arkansas in Game 3, throwing for 375 yards and five TDs. It helps that he's got A.J. Green, one of the nation's best receivers, to throw to. We've heard a lot about the Sun Devils' new and improved defense. Cox will test those assertions.
8. Chris Owusu, TD maker: Who's the best playmaker in the Pac-10? Other than Best, it might be Owusu, who's already returned a pair of kickoffs for TDs this year. The Huskies might want to bone up on their kick coverage this week. And Owusu is no slouch at receiver. The sophomore ranks fourth in the conference with 65.7 yards receiving per game and has two touchdowns. He averages 16.4 yards per catch. He's the guy who's going to keep defenses from ganging up against running back Toby Gerhart.
9. Jeremiah Masoli's passing: There has been no more bigger disappointment than Oregon's passing offense. The Ducks rank last in the conference with 126 yards per game and have yet to throw a TD pass. Masoli has completed less than 50 percent of his passes this season, and he was 4-of-16 for 95 yards with an interception in the win over Utah. Some fans started asking whether backup Nate Costa should be given a chance. The Ducks can't beat Cal without a passing game, which means Masoli needs to revert to his form at the end of 2008 when he was one of the nation's premier pass-run threats.
10. Oregon State's offensive line: The Beavers have given up 10 sacks, four more than any other Pac-10 team -- their 3.33 sacks per game ranks 107th in the nation. The run blocking has been OK -- 146 yards rushing per game, 4.1 yards per carry -- but the effort has been inconsistent. Arizona's front seven is fast, and Brooks Reed is one of the Pac-10's best pass-rushers, even if he's off to a slow start. The Beavers, who start a true freshman at left tackle and two sophomore former walk-ons, need to grow up fast. Saturday would be a good time to start.
Georgia a big measuring stick for Arizona State
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
TEMPE, Ariz. -- Arizona State has been utterly dominant while winning its first two games. The Sun Devils' defense is ranked No. 1 in the nation. The offense ranks ninth with 44 points a game.
Now, take that information, crumple it up and throw it out the window. Coach Dennis Erickson knows that pounding on Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe means little.
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| Matt Kartozian/US Presswire | |
| Saturday's game at Sanford Stadium will be Danny Sullivan's first start on the road. |
A trip to No. 17 Georgia on Saturday? That's a bit of an upgrade in competition.
"We'll find out a little bit more about what we are as a team, that's the bottom line," Erickson said. "It doesn't matter who they are or what their rank is. We're [asking] right now, 'where are we at as a football team?'"
Erickson repeated variations of those sentiments to a variety of questions: Georgia will be a measuring stick for the Sun Devils.
If they manage to win, or least keep things competitive into the fourth quarter, they might become a top-half of the Pac-10 team, though the Bulldogs probably aren't in the class of California or USC this season.
If they can't keep up, then Arizona State likely falls in with the gaggle of teams scrapping for six wins and bowl eligibility in the lower-middle, bottom-third of the conference.
Of course, one game, win or lose, doesn't a season make. It's possible the Sun Devils in Athens, Ga., won't be anything like the Sun Devils in November. Still, this is the first chance to evaluate Arizona State against a first-rate BCS conference team.
Georgia opened a can of whup butt on the Sun Devils last year, the 27-10 count not doing justice to the Bulldogs dominance.
Georgia took a 21-3 lead into halftime and mostly coasted home. They outrushed the Sun Devils 176 yards to 4 and outgained them overall 461-212.
"They pretty much dominated us," Erickson said. "We didn't play very well and they played well."
The first question is how Arizona State quarterback Danny Sullivan will handle his first start on the road in one of the nation's tougher venues -- "Between the Hedges" at Sanford Stadium.
That's impossible to say. Sullivan is a senior, but the last time he faced a fast, elite defense, he crumbled after coming off the bench in 2008 at USC.
While the Georgia defense doesn't compare to USC -- it's given up 34 points per game -- two of those games were on the road, so the home crowd should help.
"Until you go in there and experience it, you just don't know," Erickson said.
On the other hand, this is a different group of Sun Devils. The defense is deeper and faster than last year's and, while there's lots of experience, a youth movement led by tackles Lawrence Guy, a sophomore, and William Sutton and Corey Adams as well as linebacker Vontaze Burfict -- all true freshmen -- is most intriguing.
Yet the biggest difference might be on the offensive line.
In 2008, the Sun Devils started converted defensive lineman Jon Hargis at left tackle and 289-pound redshirt freshman Adam Tello at right tackle. Things didn't go well for either.
A far more experienced Hargis is now the left guard, while Tello is his backup. NFL prospect Shawn Lauvao moved out to left tackle, while guard Matt Hustad and tackle Tom Njunge give the Sun Devils far more athleticism on the right side. Neither was healthy last year.
Is it a great offensive line? No. But last year's unit didn't have a chance -- the Sun Devils ranked 113th in the nation in rushing and surrendered 34 sacks (109th in the nation). This time around, it might.
"We're much more solid, we have more depth," Erickson said. "We're playing a little bit better, technique-wise and so forth. We made some moves to get our best players in the right positions. As we go through the next 10 weeks, if we lose a guy or two, we'll put people out there who play pretty well. I like where we're at. Are we a great offensive line? No, but we're getting better all the time and we're better now than we were at this time last year."
Georgia, meanwhile, entered the season having to replace running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matt Stafford, NFL first-round picks who dominated the action in last year's game. The Bulldogs seem to be getting their legs under them after opening with a loss at Oklahoma State. They had just 257 total yards against the Cowboys but piled up 530 yards Saturday in their win over Arkansas.
"Joe Cox is playing extremely well at quarterback," Erickson said. "The last two weeks, I didn't see any drop-off."
A key matchup will be Bulldogs sophomore receiver A.J. Green against the Sun Devils secondary, particularly cornerback Omar Bolden. Last year, Green dominated Bolden, catching eight passes for 159 yards and a touchdown.
Erickson's advice to his team on handling the frenzy of a road game in an SEC stadium? Have fun.
"You talk to our players about it and they're excited to go down there and experience [that]," he said. "It's going to be fun; they're looking forward to it."
Sounds like the Sun Devils are eager to find out who they really are in 2009.
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
Third in a series looking at potential dream and nightmare scenarios for all Pac-10 teams, starting at the bottom and working up from my vote in the Pac-10 media poll.
Up next: Arizona State
Best case
A 2-0 start after beating Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe proved very little for Arizona State, and it was clear the Sun Devils were keeping things close to the vest in advance of their trip to Georgia.
Most ASU fans would have been satisfied with a respectable performance against the 10th-ranked Bulldogs, but after Dexter Davis returned a Joe Cox fumble 28 yards for a touchdown and an early 10-7 lead, the whiff of an upset began wafting over Sanford Stadium.
Cox clearly was rattled by a Sun Devils defense that looked nothing like the middling crew the Bulldogs saw in Tempe a year ago. While the ASU offense also was muted, quarterback Danny Sullivan didn't make any critical mistakes, which is exactly what Cox did when a third-down pass from the ASU 16-yard line intended for A.J. Green was picked off by Omar Bolden and returned 100 yards for a touchdown.
The Sun Devils' 24-21 win made 92,000 folks very quiet.
The euphoria lasted too long. The following weekend, No. 18 Oregon State takes a 24-7 halftime lead and holds on for a 31-28 victory. But the Sun Devils jump back into the national rankings after rolling up wins over Washington State, Washington and a double-overtime thriller at Stanford.
Now, however, the gauntlet starts. The Sun Devils lose a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to California, and USC becomes the first team to rush for more than 200 yards against the Sun Devils in a 28-17 victory. A cold, wet trip to Oregon becomes another overtime thriller, but this time the Sun Devils fall.
The normally mild-mannered Davis flips out. He tells reporters, "You will never see any player in the entire country who will play harder than I will play the rest of the season. And you will not see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody for the rest of the season, and you will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season."
Davis collects two sacks in a 30-21 victory over UCLA and two more in a 28-27 win over arch-rival Arizona.
The Sun Devils then whip TCU, 33-17, in the Las Vegas Bowl, finish 9-4 and 21st in both polls.
Worst case
While Arizona State didn't have much trouble rolling Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe, it didn't look impressive doing so. There were lots of areas of concern, and those concerns were amplified in Athens, Ga.
Sullivan, making his first start on the road in front of 92,000 red-clad crazies, throws two interceptions and the Sun Devils rush for just 48 yards in a 31-10 loss to No. 10 Georgia. The Sun Devils trudge off the field amid chants of "SEC! SEC! SEC!"
"Why are these guys so high on the Security and Exchange Commission?" defensive tackle Lawrence Guy asks end Davis.
"I suppose Georgia fans are enthusiastic about an organization that protects investors, maintains fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitates capital formation," Davis replies.
"That's nice," Guy says.
Oregon State receiver James Rodgers accumulates a lot of capital the next weekend, piling up 225 yards of total offense and scoring two touchdowns in a 28-14 Beavers win.
The Sun Devils win at Washington State, but then lose in overtime to Washington, letting Jake Locker slip away for a 15-yard game-winning scramble.
The schedule's degree of difficulty begins to amp up and things get ugly, as the Sun Devils match the six-game losing streak that ruined the 2008 season.
The Territorial Cup vs. arch-rival Arizona is a painful affair. The No. 18 Wildcats not only earn a Sun Bowl berth with their 33-24 win, they also force the Sun Devils to finish the season with a seven-game losing streak, the longest of coach Dennis Erickson's career and the longest in program history.


