Pac-12: Michigan State Spartans
Happy Friday.
This is where you follow me on Twitter.
To the notes.
Dave from Birmingham writes: Not sure I get you. Why would you not want the four best teams to play in a playoff? That's what a playoff is about. I know there's a subjective part to this but that's inevitable. Is everyone that afraid of a consensus favoring the SEC because the SEC is the best conference?
Ted Miller: In a word, yes. And no matter how you frame it, that so-called consensus remains subjective. And I know this from experience.
In 1996, I worked at the Mobile Register and I was arguing with Mike Griffith, who then covered Alabama for the Register and voted in the AP poll. Now, everybody argues with Mike, but I thought he was being particularly obtuse this particular afternoon because he was touting Arizona State. I was blathering that Arizona State would have four losses if it played in the SEC.
Yes, I once was one of them. Why? Because that was the way I was raised. Football in the south, as writer Rick Bragg once ostentatiously pandered, is like a "knife fight in a ditch"! That's a bunch of silliness, but such sentiments nonetheless are inculcated into fans and they seep into the media coverage -- in the Southeast as well as other parts of the country where fetishizing the peculiarity of the South is embraced. So I understand the roots of the "just because" reaction of so many SEC fans. And I experienced its power as a sportswriter.
When I moved out to Seattle to cover Washington, I still had a "just because" feeling about West Coast vs. Southeast football. When Miami came to Husky Stadium in 2000, I thought the Hurricanes would blast the Huskies. Ergo, my initial transformative moment was watching Washington physically manhandle the Hurricanes. Don't be fooled by the final score: The Huskies owned Miami that day.
My point: Regional biases are strong and they cloud thinking, even when they feel rational. That's why there needs to be a safeguard in our new four-team playoff system for some degree of objectivity, which prioritizing conference champions provides.
I know any questions about SEC super-awesomeness make SEC folks angry. I know: Six crystal footballs. No one is doubting the SEC's ability to dominate the BCS system. And I have no doubt that dominance of a subjective system -- a beauty contest, really -- has helped push the SEC closer to something that can be judged as a more objective superiority (read: self-fulfilling prophecy).
But if we're going to have a national college football playoff, we need to create a selection process that doesn't leave open the possibility of a tag always going to a runner from a certain conference, just because.
Edward from Atlanta writes: Do you think USC coach Lane Kiffin and his staff are better at recruiting than Pete Carroll and his staff? I look at the fact that Lane Kiffin is only working with 15 scholarships and he is still bringing in top recruits after everything that has taking placed. Just imagine if he did had all his scholarships he would probably have a top 3 or top 5 recruiting class every year.
Ted Miller: No.
Kiffin and his staff are recruiting very well, but they can't do much better than Pete Carroll and his staff did from 2002-2009. You say top-three to -five each year? Carroll landed the No. 1 class multiple times. Any rare rating outside the top five was deemed an off-year. Carroll's recruiting run rates among the best run a program has produced -- think Bobby Bowden in the glory years at Florida State.
It's also worth noting that Carroll and Kiffin share two ace recruiters: Kiffin and Ed Orgeron.
Jeff from Tempe, Ariz., writes: Who do you think is going to be the starting quarterback for ASU to begin the season?
Ted Miller: That's a tough one. When I watched practice, I thought Mike Bercovici was so much better as a passer that he should be the guy. But then you have to realize that new coach Todd Graham wants to run some spread option, and that requires the quarterback to be a running threat. Bercovici is no running threat, while 6-foot-5, 242-pound Michael Eubank is. And Eubank has potential as a passer, though at present he's raw.
The easy answer is start Bercovici but use some packages with Eubank. But that's sort of a fan answer. Most coaches don't like playing two quarterbacks. They'll tell you if you play two, it means you don't have any. And QBs are not big fans of sharing the job.
I used to be a Bercovici lean, but now I'm leaning toward Eubank. Here's why: This team is much better at running back than at receiver. Even with Bercovici's live arm, this probably is going to be a run-first offense, and it makes things much more difficult for a defense if it must account for the QB as a runner. Eubank can become at least an adequate passer. Bercovici is unlikely to do the same as a runner.
Mark from Garden Grove, Calif., writes: If you could play matchmaker, which Big Ten/Pac-12 schools would you pair for the 2017 season -- and why?
Ted Miller: OK, I'll bite, basing things on where the college football world is today.
Rapsai from Eugene, Ore., writes: Ted, with Oregon's lack of depth at RB, do you see Josh Huff maybe sliding into the backfield to play some RB for the Ducks next season?
Ted Miller: A perfectly reasonable solution if there are injury issues in the backfield.
Does it make me a bad person that I don't think the Ducks are going to hurting at running back? I just think with Chip Kelly's emphasis on speed in recruiting that the Ducks will pretty much have an answer at RB, no matter how many guys get hurt. Recall that Kenjon Barner started out as a defensive back.
John from Los Angeles writes: I guess this falls into my "you know your old when you have a story for everything" file. In reading the post about Jonathan Ogden going into the HOF, I noticed your comment on his massive size. My buddies and I take a football road trip every year. We used to include the Baltimore Ravens in the trip because Will Demps (former Ravens safety) played at the high school where my buddy is the AD and he would get us tickets. Anyway, after a game against the Bengals at Cincinnati we are standing next to the Ravens team bus talking to Demps, Ogden and his people come up next to us - and he literally blocks out the sun!! You truly cannot appreciate how BIG the guy is until you stand right next to him. My buddy is wearing his USC cap (he is a big fan), so to amuse myself I keep whispering "Jack, show Ogden your hat." My friend kept his back to Ogden the entire time.
Ted Miller: I remember covering the 1996 Citrus Bowl between Ohio State and Tennessee -- which was cool because both were ranked No. 4 entering the game -- and walking up to the Ohio State bus. I saw No. 75 horsing around around this itty-bitty guy with a bald head who was No. 27.
The itty bitty guy was 6-foot-3, 240-pound, Heisman Trophy-winning running back Eddie George, and No. 75 was 6-foot-7, 325-pound Orlando Pace, who at that moment was the biggest dude I'd ever seen.
And Ogden -- at 6-foot-9, 345 -- darn near dwarfs Pace.
Only guy who ever impressed me as more spectacularly large was Shaquille O'Neal.
This is where you follow me on Twitter.
To the notes.
Dave from Birmingham writes: Not sure I get you. Why would you not want the four best teams to play in a playoff? That's what a playoff is about. I know there's a subjective part to this but that's inevitable. Is everyone that afraid of a consensus favoring the SEC because the SEC is the best conference?
Ted Miller: In a word, yes. And no matter how you frame it, that so-called consensus remains subjective. And I know this from experience.
In 1996, I worked at the Mobile Register and I was arguing with Mike Griffith, who then covered Alabama for the Register and voted in the AP poll. Now, everybody argues with Mike, but I thought he was being particularly obtuse this particular afternoon because he was touting Arizona State. I was blathering that Arizona State would have four losses if it played in the SEC.
Yes, I once was one of them. Why? Because that was the way I was raised. Football in the south, as writer Rick Bragg once ostentatiously pandered, is like a "knife fight in a ditch"! That's a bunch of silliness, but such sentiments nonetheless are inculcated into fans and they seep into the media coverage -- in the Southeast as well as other parts of the country where fetishizing the peculiarity of the South is embraced. So I understand the roots of the "just because" reaction of so many SEC fans. And I experienced its power as a sportswriter.
When I moved out to Seattle to cover Washington, I still had a "just because" feeling about West Coast vs. Southeast football. When Miami came to Husky Stadium in 2000, I thought the Hurricanes would blast the Huskies. Ergo, my initial transformative moment was watching Washington physically manhandle the Hurricanes. Don't be fooled by the final score: The Huskies owned Miami that day.
My point: Regional biases are strong and they cloud thinking, even when they feel rational. That's why there needs to be a safeguard in our new four-team playoff system for some degree of objectivity, which prioritizing conference champions provides.
I know any questions about SEC super-awesomeness make SEC folks angry. I know: Six crystal footballs. No one is doubting the SEC's ability to dominate the BCS system. And I have no doubt that dominance of a subjective system -- a beauty contest, really -- has helped push the SEC closer to something that can be judged as a more objective superiority (read: self-fulfilling prophecy).
But if we're going to have a national college football playoff, we need to create a selection process that doesn't leave open the possibility of a tag always going to a runner from a certain conference, just because.
Edward from Atlanta writes: Do you think USC coach Lane Kiffin and his staff are better at recruiting than Pete Carroll and his staff? I look at the fact that Lane Kiffin is only working with 15 scholarships and he is still bringing in top recruits after everything that has taking placed. Just imagine if he did had all his scholarships he would probably have a top 3 or top 5 recruiting class every year.
Ted Miller: No.
Kiffin and his staff are recruiting very well, but they can't do much better than Pete Carroll and his staff did from 2002-2009. You say top-three to -five each year? Carroll landed the No. 1 class multiple times. Any rare rating outside the top five was deemed an off-year. Carroll's recruiting run rates among the best run a program has produced -- think Bobby Bowden in the glory years at Florida State.
It's also worth noting that Carroll and Kiffin share two ace recruiters: Kiffin and Ed Orgeron.
Jeff from Tempe, Ariz., writes: Who do you think is going to be the starting quarterback for ASU to begin the season?
Ted Miller: That's a tough one. When I watched practice, I thought Mike Bercovici was so much better as a passer that he should be the guy. But then you have to realize that new coach Todd Graham wants to run some spread option, and that requires the quarterback to be a running threat. Bercovici is no running threat, while 6-foot-5, 242-pound Michael Eubank is. And Eubank has potential as a passer, though at present he's raw.
The easy answer is start Bercovici but use some packages with Eubank. But that's sort of a fan answer. Most coaches don't like playing two quarterbacks. They'll tell you if you play two, it means you don't have any. And QBs are not big fans of sharing the job.
I used to be a Bercovici lean, but now I'm leaning toward Eubank. Here's why: This team is much better at running back than at receiver. Even with Bercovici's live arm, this probably is going to be a run-first offense, and it makes things much more difficult for a defense if it must account for the QB as a runner. Eubank can become at least an adequate passer. Bercovici is unlikely to do the same as a runner.
Mark from Garden Grove, Calif., writes: If you could play matchmaker, which Big Ten/Pac-12 schools would you pair for the 2017 season -- and why?
Ted Miller: OK, I'll bite, basing things on where the college football world is today.
- Oregon-Ohio State: Urban Meyer vs. Chip Kelly. 'Nuff said.
- Arizona-Michigan: The Rich Rodriguez Bowl.
- Stanford-Wisconsin: Two really good schools that play smashmouth football.
- Oregon State-Michigan State: All that green would have the Beavers feeling like they're play Oregon.
- USC-Penn State: Two old-school powers whose uniforms are among the most recognizable.
- Nebraska-Arizona State: Any Sun Devils recall 1996?
- Northwestern-California: Two elite academic universities.
- Washington-Iowa: A rematch of the 1982, 1991 Rose Bowls, both won by the Huskies.
- Colorado-Purdue: Two great mascots. (Colorado would have been a good one for Nebraska, too.)
- Utah-Illinois: Utes vs. Fighting Illini.
- Washington State-Minnesota: The Cold Bowl.
- UCLA-Indiana: Two old-school basketball powers playing football.
Rapsai from Eugene, Ore., writes: Ted, with Oregon's lack of depth at RB, do you see Josh Huff maybe sliding into the backfield to play some RB for the Ducks next season?
Ted Miller: A perfectly reasonable solution if there are injury issues in the backfield.
Does it make me a bad person that I don't think the Ducks are going to hurting at running back? I just think with Chip Kelly's emphasis on speed in recruiting that the Ducks will pretty much have an answer at RB, no matter how many guys get hurt. Recall that Kenjon Barner started out as a defensive back.
John from Los Angeles writes: I guess this falls into my "you know your old when you have a story for everything" file. In reading the post about Jonathan Ogden going into the HOF, I noticed your comment on his massive size. My buddies and I take a football road trip every year. We used to include the Baltimore Ravens in the trip because Will Demps (former Ravens safety) played at the high school where my buddy is the AD and he would get us tickets. Anyway, after a game against the Bengals at Cincinnati we are standing next to the Ravens team bus talking to Demps, Ogden and his people come up next to us - and he literally blocks out the sun!! You truly cannot appreciate how BIG the guy is until you stand right next to him. My buddy is wearing his USC cap (he is a big fan), so to amuse myself I keep whispering "Jack, show Ogden your hat." My friend kept his back to Ogden the entire time.
Ted Miller: I remember covering the 1996 Citrus Bowl between Ohio State and Tennessee -- which was cool because both were ranked No. 4 entering the game -- and walking up to the Ohio State bus. I saw No. 75 horsing around around this itty-bitty guy with a bald head who was No. 27.
The itty bitty guy was 6-foot-3, 240-pound, Heisman Trophy-winning running back Eddie George, and No. 75 was 6-foot-7, 325-pound Orlando Pace, who at that moment was the biggest dude I'd ever seen.
And Ogden -- at 6-foot-9, 345 -- darn near dwarfs Pace.
Only guy who ever impressed me as more spectacularly large was Shaquille O'Neal.
We've given you our thoughts recently on which Pac-12 player has the best shot at winning the Heisman. You've given your thoughts (an extremely tight poll) and now the folks at HeismanPundit.com have offered up their darkhorse candidates for 2012.
They looked at 12 not-as-mainstream candidates who could contend for the Heisman Trophy, and four of them are from the Pac-12.
First, the list:
Their thoughts on each of the Pac-12 players:
Fun list. With frontrunner Matt Barkley out there, along with Washington quarterback Keith Price, a couple of USC wide receivers and A-list running backs like John White IV and Stepfan Taylor, there is certainly no wanting for offensive talent in the conference. Per usual.
Which players emerge will definitely be one of the more fascinating stories to follow in 2012.
They looked at 12 not-as-mainstream candidates who could contend for the Heisman Trophy, and four of them are from the Pac-12.
First, the list:
- Eddie Lacy, Alabama
- Curtis McNeal, USC
- Fitzgerald Toussaint, Michigan
- Kenjon Barner, Oregon
- James Franklin, Missouri
- Braxton Miller, Ohio State
- Kiehl Frazier, Auburn
- Le'Veon Bell, Michigan State
- Cierre Wood, Notre Dame
- Christine Michael, Texas A&M
- Jesse Callier, Washington
- De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon
Their thoughts on each of the Pac-12 players:
On McNeal: A total of 150 carries have departed the program and there is little depth behind the senior, who will benefit from defenses focusing on USC’s strong passing attack. Give McNeal at least half of those departed carries and you are looking at a possible 1,500 yard season, if not more.
On Barner: There were times the rest of the year when he looked as good as, if not better than, James. This year, the Ducks lose not only James’ 247 carries, but also the 45 of freshman Tra Carson and the 56 of quarterback Darron Thomas, for a total of 347 carries to be redistributed.
On Callier: I actually think there is a good chance that Washington experiences no dropoff at this position and that Callier establishes himself as one of the top backs in the Pac-12 with a season exceeding 1,300 yards on the ground.
On Thomas: Thomas is obviously an interesting case since he is such an all-around dynamo. Last year, he had just 140 touches, with 39 of them coming in the return game. This was a wise move by Oregon, as keeping the rather slight Thomas fresh and healthy is the key to his effectiveness. It worked, as he had 18 touchdowns and 2,235 total yards. In that vein, Oregon might be tempted to put a huge workload on him in 2012, but I don’t foresee it unless there is a desperate need.
Fun list. With frontrunner Matt Barkley out there, along with Washington quarterback Keith Price, a couple of USC wide receivers and A-list running backs like John White IV and Stepfan Taylor, there is certainly no wanting for offensive talent in the conference. Per usual.
Which players emerge will definitely be one of the more fascinating stories to follow in 2012.
Oregon and Michigan State have agreed to play a home-and-home football series in 2014 and 2015, with the Spartans visiting Autzen Stadium in 2014 and the Ducks providing a return trip a year later.
The game in Eugene is scheduled for Sept. 13, 2014. The Ducks will head to East Lansing on Sept. 12, 2015.
The two football programs engaged in a similar series in the late 1990s, with Oregon winning in Autzen Stadium 48-14 in 1998. The Spartans prevailed at home, 27-20, in 1999.
“I have tremendous respect for the program that Coach [Mark] Dantonio and his staff have built at Michigan State,” Oregon coach Chip Kelly said in a statement. “There is little doubt a game of this magnitude will present an early-season challenge for us but one that hopefully will make our team better as the season progresses.”
Oregon concludes a home-and-home series with Tennessee in 2013 when the Volunteers are scheduled to visit Eugene on Sept. 14.
"We look forward to adding Oregon to our future football schedule," Michigan State athletic director Mark Hollis said in a statement. "The series provides MSU alums on the West Coast with an opportunity to see the Spartans compete against one of the nation's outstanding football programs. The relationship between the Big Ten and Pac-12 is built on common values and the Rose Bowl. We also look forward to bringing the Ducks back to Spartan Stadium, as we continue to compete for championships and national exposure."
The game in Eugene is scheduled for Sept. 13, 2014. The Ducks will head to East Lansing on Sept. 12, 2015.
The two football programs engaged in a similar series in the late 1990s, with Oregon winning in Autzen Stadium 48-14 in 1998. The Spartans prevailed at home, 27-20, in 1999.
“I have tremendous respect for the program that Coach [Mark] Dantonio and his staff have built at Michigan State,” Oregon coach Chip Kelly said in a statement. “There is little doubt a game of this magnitude will present an early-season challenge for us but one that hopefully will make our team better as the season progresses.”
Oregon concludes a home-and-home series with Tennessee in 2013 when the Volunteers are scheduled to visit Eugene on Sept. 14.
"We look forward to adding Oregon to our future football schedule," Michigan State athletic director Mark Hollis said in a statement. "The series provides MSU alums on the West Coast with an opportunity to see the Spartans compete against one of the nation's outstanding football programs. The relationship between the Big Ten and Pac-12 is built on common values and the Rose Bowl. We also look forward to bringing the Ducks back to Spartan Stadium, as we continue to compete for championships and national exposure."
Foles, Pac-12 receivers shine in Senior Bowl
January, 30, 2012
Jan 30
9:30
AM ET
By
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
Pac-12 receivers caught three touchdown passes in the Senior Bowl on Saturday, a 23-13 North victory at Ladd-Peebles Stadium (40,646) in Mobile, Ala.
California's Marvin Jones caught an 8-yard scoring toss from Wisconsin's Russell Wilson in the second quarter. Arizona State's Gerell Robinson hauled in a 41-yard touchdown from Michigan State's Kirk Cousins, which gave the North a 20-6 lead. The South got an answer with Arizona quarterback Nick Foles’ 20-yard touchdown toss to his former teammate in Tucson, Juron Criner.
Foles, after a middling week of practice, had a strong showing in the game, completing 11 of 15 passes for 136 yards. Criner caught six for 77 yards. He and Boise State's Kellen Moore were the only two of the six quarterbacks in the game who didn't throw interceptions.
Robinson caught two passes for 64 yards. Washington had two players in the game. Running back Chris Polk had six carries for 19 yards, while defensive tackle Alameda Ta'amu had two tackles for a loss.
Cal's Mitchell Schwartz started at right tackle for the North.
California's Marvin Jones caught an 8-yard scoring toss from Wisconsin's Russell Wilson in the second quarter. Arizona State's Gerell Robinson hauled in a 41-yard touchdown from Michigan State's Kirk Cousins, which gave the North a 20-6 lead. The South got an answer with Arizona quarterback Nick Foles’ 20-yard touchdown toss to his former teammate in Tucson, Juron Criner.
Foles, after a middling week of practice, had a strong showing in the game, completing 11 of 15 passes for 136 yards. Criner caught six for 77 yards. He and Boise State's Kellen Moore were the only two of the six quarterbacks in the game who didn't throw interceptions.
Robinson caught two passes for 64 yards. Washington had two players in the game. Running back Chris Polk had six carries for 19 yards, while defensive tackle Alameda Ta'amu had two tackles for a loss.
Cal's Mitchell Schwartz started at right tackle for the North.
Rose Bowl blog debate: Pac-12 vs. Big Ten
December, 26, 2011
12/26/11
9:00
AM ET
By
Brian Bennett and
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
US Presswire
Montee Ball and LaMichael James will highlight a showdown of high-powered offenses.And it looks like a good matchup of good teams with contrasting styles.
Sounds like a good time for a blog debate!
Ted Miller: Well, Brian, we’re back to a traditional Pac-12-Big Ten Granddaddy and it looks like a good one: Midwest power versus West Coast flash. I’m a little surprised that Oregon is favored against Montee Ball, Russell Wilson and that mammoth group of biscuit and gravy eaters you call an offensive line. Give me an idea of what the Ducks are up against with the Badgers' offense. Is it all power football, or is it more sophisticated than that?
Brian Bennett: You'd better believe the Badgers have the baddest bunch of big uglies in college football, with an offensive line that outweighs many NFL units. Add in a couple of good tight ends, a senior fullback and Wisconsin's dedication to the ground game and you can see why the program has been one of the best running teams in the country for several years now. But it's not just all brute. The thing that makes these linemen stand out is that they are nimble and can really move, and I think many defenses are shocked by that combination of strength and athleticism early in games. Wilson has also given this team an entirely new dimension with his ability to make plays on the move and his outstanding accuracy. Opponents have no choice but to respect the run when playing Wisconsin, and that makes this offense the most dangerous play-action team in America. You'll see receivers getting huge cushions in the passing game, and Ball can break tackles even when the box is loaded.
That's why the Badgers average 44.6 points per game, just a tick below Oregon's 46.2 average. My question for you is, can the Ducks' defense handle this kind of offensive power, especially in a 3-4 scheme?
[+] Enlarge
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireMontee Ball's 1,759 yards and 32 rushing touchdowns on the season have helped the Badgers score an average of 44.6 points per game.
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireMontee Ball's 1,759 yards and 32 rushing touchdowns on the season have helped the Badgers score an average of 44.6 points per game.Oregon has faced big, powerful teams before. Stanford and USC the past two years, in conference, and Auburn and LSU out of conference. Forgotten in the talk about how Auburn and LSU slowed down the Ducks' offense is how the Ducks' defense slowed down both sets of Tigers. Oregon outgained LSU 372-273 but was done in by four horrible turnovers. The Ducks held Auburn and Cam Newton to 22 points, its second-lowest total of the season.
Sure, Oregon’s defense ranks 59th in the nation in total yards while Wisconsin ranks eighth. But they yield similar numbers on yards per play: Oregon 4.93, Wisconsin 4.85. And the Ducks are slightly better on third down. Oregon’s defense’s biggest problem is its offense, which scores a lot of points despite ranking LAST in the nation in time of possession. The Badgers' defense, with an offense that ranks 22nd in time of possession, only faced 786 plays this year. Oregon faced 1,005. That skews numbers.
Wait. Did I get all stats-y there? Sorry. My answer to the size question is what Oregon will say leading up to the Rose Bowl. It’s nothing new for them. They play their game, run their stunts, use their speed and see what happens. Stanford, which has two first-round NFL draft choices on its O-line, would be the most natural comparison with the Badgers. And for two years in a row, no team has played good enough defense to beat the Cardinal and Andrew Luck other than Oregon.
While Badgers fans expect Whisky to run over the Ducks with size -- Big Ten thinking! -- Ducks fans believe they can exploit the Badgers' defense with speed and misdirection -- Pac-12 thinking! What about some Brian Bennett thinking: Do the Badgers have the speed on defense to keep up with the Ducks? Is Bret Bielema going to use past blueprints to thwart Kelly?
What we learned in the Pac-12: Week 14
December, 4, 2011
12/04/11
10:00
AM ET
By
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
What did we learn from Week 14 of Pac-12 action?
It's Oregon: In the preseason it was "Oregon or Stanford." When Oregon lost to LSU, it became "Stanford or Oregon." But when the fog -- man, Eugene, you do have some fog -- cleared, it was the Ducks. Again. For a third consecutive time. Oregon overcame an early loss, injuries and the Andrew Luck Phenomenon to win the first Pac-12 title game. Now can the Ducks beat ...
It's Wisconsin: The first question of the bowl season is who does the conference champion play? Rose Bowl or national title game? Well, Oregon's loss to USC knocked it out of the national title debate, so that leaves the Ducks headed to the Rose Bowl. And, in a thrilling Big Ten title game, Wisconsin outlasted Michigan State. So it's Ducks and Badgers, which will be simplistically billed as speed versus power, as most Big Ten-Pac-12 matchups are.
USC-Oregon would have been fun to see: It's become an accepted fact among informed college football observers that the NCAA sanctions against USC were a travesty of justice, and the NCAA's refusal to revisit that travesty are a massive act of cowardice on the part of the organization. That's the take of all clear-thinking people. (NCAA folks, just admit you blew it. The NCAA would take a huge step toward wiping away dumbfounding hypocrisy with a moment of honest self-reflection.) We, again, point out the obvious because it would have been electric to see two top-10 teams play in Autzen Stadium on Friday to truly figure out who the best team was in the Pac-12.
Cougs are relevant again: Washington State's hiring of Mike Leach gives the program instant credibility. He's a top-20 coach who knows how to win without elite, across-the-board talent. The Cougs were already taking steps forward the past two years under Paul Wulff. Wulff collected talent that can be competitive in the Pac-12. Leach immediately puts the program back into the North Division discussion.
Uncertainty at Arizona State and UCLA: Arizona State wanted Kevin Sumlin and UCLA wanted Chris Petersen. It appears that neither is going to get its first choice. Rumors are swirling, but there is nothing of substance for either program yet. While Washington State quickly filled its post, it's uncertain whether either the Sun Devils or Bruins will hire a coach quickly. That may be due to insecurity for both athletic directors. Prolonged coaching searches are not good. Both programs need to figure things out and quickly.
It's Oregon: In the preseason it was "Oregon or Stanford." When Oregon lost to LSU, it became "Stanford or Oregon." But when the fog -- man, Eugene, you do have some fog -- cleared, it was the Ducks. Again. For a third consecutive time. Oregon overcame an early loss, injuries and the Andrew Luck Phenomenon to win the first Pac-12 title game. Now can the Ducks beat ...
It's Wisconsin: The first question of the bowl season is who does the conference champion play? Rose Bowl or national title game? Well, Oregon's loss to USC knocked it out of the national title debate, so that leaves the Ducks headed to the Rose Bowl. And, in a thrilling Big Ten title game, Wisconsin outlasted Michigan State. So it's Ducks and Badgers, which will be simplistically billed as speed versus power, as most Big Ten-Pac-12 matchups are.
USC-Oregon would have been fun to see: It's become an accepted fact among informed college football observers that the NCAA sanctions against USC were a travesty of justice, and the NCAA's refusal to revisit that travesty are a massive act of cowardice on the part of the organization. That's the take of all clear-thinking people. (NCAA folks, just admit you blew it. The NCAA would take a huge step toward wiping away dumbfounding hypocrisy with a moment of honest self-reflection.) We, again, point out the obvious because it would have been electric to see two top-10 teams play in Autzen Stadium on Friday to truly figure out who the best team was in the Pac-12.
Cougs are relevant again: Washington State's hiring of Mike Leach gives the program instant credibility. He's a top-20 coach who knows how to win without elite, across-the-board talent. The Cougs were already taking steps forward the past two years under Paul Wulff. Wulff collected talent that can be competitive in the Pac-12. Leach immediately puts the program back into the North Division discussion.
Uncertainty at Arizona State and UCLA: Arizona State wanted Kevin Sumlin and UCLA wanted Chris Petersen. It appears that neither is going to get its first choice. Rumors are swirling, but there is nothing of substance for either program yet. While Washington State quickly filled its post, it's uncertain whether either the Sun Devils or Bruins will hire a coach quickly. That may be due to insecurity for both athletic directors. Prolonged coaching searches are not good. Both programs need to figure things out and quickly.
Oregon is better on defense than offense.
That got your attention, eh?
Well, you can make the case by one measure: the All-Pac-12 team as voted on by the coaches. Only one Duck is named to the first-team offense. Three are named to the first-team defense. One Duck is on the second-team offense and one is on the second-team defense. So, that's 4-2 in favor of the defense.
Then, when you toss in three honorable mentions on defense -- players need at least two coaches' votes to make it -- and just one on offense, well, that makes a strong case for the star power of the defense. Seven of the 11 defenders were honored, and just three of the Ducks' 11 offensive players were. (Yes, this leaves off freshman co-offensive player of the year, De'Anthony Thomas, who made the first team as return specialist.)
And, while we're considering the All-Pac-12 team, I have no idea why linebacker Michael Clay, the Ducks' leading tackler, didn't earn honorable mention.
Kyle Terada/US PresswirePac-12 first-teamer Dion Jordan -- here taking down Stanford's Andrew Luck -- and Oregon's defense rank sixth in the nation in sacks per game.Of course, the numbers don't hold this notion up. The Ducks again rank in the nation's top six in scoring, total and rushing offense. The defensive rankings are nowhere near as elite.
Oregon is 64th in the nation in total defense (384.7 yards per game), 47th against the run (135.6 ypg), 43rd in scoring defense (23 ppg) and 34th in pass efficiency defense. The highlight is sacks, where the Ducks rank sixth with 3.25 per game.
The Ducks' yards per play -- 4.94 -- however, ranks in the nation's top 25. That is meaningful and is the measure coordinator Nick Aliotti most often points to.
Coaches will tell you to never look ahead. So we won't. At first.
The present for Oregon -- another Super Bowl against a nameless, faceless opponent -- is UCLA. The Bruins rank 10th in the conference in scoring offense after getting shut out last weekend by USC. They rank 11th in passing. What they can do is run. They are third in the conference in rushing, with 193.3 yards per game.
So the Ducks' solid run defense has a fairly simple task against the Bruins. Stop the run and force Kevin Prince to throw the ball inside Autzen Stadium. See what happens.
Now we're going to look ahead -- big-time -- and suppose that Oregon takes care of business and Wisconsin beats Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game on Saturday and earns a spot opposite the Ducks in the Rose Bowl. (Considering that the Spartans beat Wisconsin in East Lansing, that's no sure thing, mind you).
The Badgers, based on statistics, are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in the nation in scoring offense and scoring defense. Not sure I buy the defensive numbers: The Badgers gave up 70 points combined to Ohio State and Michigan State, and neither has what would be considered an A-list offense.
But that Badgers offense is potent and balanced with quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Montee Ball and a HUGE offensive line.
Obviously, we are looking way ahead for both teams. But Wisconsin-Oregon would be an intriguing matchup of consequence. It would give the Ducks a nice opportunity to show the nation they are more than a flashy offense if they met Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
Oh, and it would be a nice opportunity for the no-name offense to prove it can pile up numbers against an elite defense with extra time to prepare.
Not that we'd overlook UCLA or anything.
That got your attention, eh?
Well, you can make the case by one measure: the All-Pac-12 team as voted on by the coaches. Only one Duck is named to the first-team offense. Three are named to the first-team defense. One Duck is on the second-team offense and one is on the second-team defense. So, that's 4-2 in favor of the defense.
Then, when you toss in three honorable mentions on defense -- players need at least two coaches' votes to make it -- and just one on offense, well, that makes a strong case for the star power of the defense. Seven of the 11 defenders were honored, and just three of the Ducks' 11 offensive players were. (Yes, this leaves off freshman co-offensive player of the year, De'Anthony Thomas, who made the first team as return specialist.)
And, while we're considering the All-Pac-12 team, I have no idea why linebacker Michael Clay, the Ducks' leading tackler, didn't earn honorable mention.
Kyle Terada/US PresswirePac-12 first-teamer Dion Jordan -- here taking down Stanford's Andrew Luck -- and Oregon's defense rank sixth in the nation in sacks per game.Oregon is 64th in the nation in total defense (384.7 yards per game), 47th against the run (135.6 ypg), 43rd in scoring defense (23 ppg) and 34th in pass efficiency defense. The highlight is sacks, where the Ducks rank sixth with 3.25 per game.
The Ducks' yards per play -- 4.94 -- however, ranks in the nation's top 25. That is meaningful and is the measure coordinator Nick Aliotti most often points to.
Coaches will tell you to never look ahead. So we won't. At first.
The present for Oregon -- another Super Bowl against a nameless, faceless opponent -- is UCLA. The Bruins rank 10th in the conference in scoring offense after getting shut out last weekend by USC. They rank 11th in passing. What they can do is run. They are third in the conference in rushing, with 193.3 yards per game.
So the Ducks' solid run defense has a fairly simple task against the Bruins. Stop the run and force Kevin Prince to throw the ball inside Autzen Stadium. See what happens.
Now we're going to look ahead -- big-time -- and suppose that Oregon takes care of business and Wisconsin beats Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game on Saturday and earns a spot opposite the Ducks in the Rose Bowl. (Considering that the Spartans beat Wisconsin in East Lansing, that's no sure thing, mind you).
The Badgers, based on statistics, are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in the nation in scoring offense and scoring defense. Not sure I buy the defensive numbers: The Badgers gave up 70 points combined to Ohio State and Michigan State, and neither has what would be considered an A-list offense.
But that Badgers offense is potent and balanced with quarterback Russell Wilson, running back Montee Ball and a HUGE offensive line.
Obviously, we are looking way ahead for both teams. But Wisconsin-Oregon would be an intriguing matchup of consequence. It would give the Ducks a nice opportunity to show the nation they are more than a flashy offense if they met Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.
Oh, and it would be a nice opportunity for the no-name offense to prove it can pile up numbers against an elite defense with extra time to prepare.
Not that we'd overlook UCLA or anything.
If reading a series of factoids about how great Oregon is annoys you, might we suggest you skip over the bullet points that follow?
And we'd like to announce that Oregon is very likely to win 10 games again in 2012 and will be the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth consecutive conference title, unless a couple of guys at USC decided to wait another year before entering the NFL draft.
Hold your thumb and forefinger an inch apart. That represents the distance Oregon has to travel to become a legitimate Pac-12 dynasty.
Of course, the NCAA looms over the program due to L'Affaire de Willie Lyles. Oregon has yet to receive its notice of allegations that contains specific alleged rules infractions, but it received official notification of an investigation in September, so it's only a matter of time. That could lead to a slap on the wrist. Or a haymaker that knocks the program out, at least for a bit.
But that's off-the-field stuff. Let's cast our gaze on the field. There is, after all, a space between your thumb and forefinger that needs explaining.
The only element that eludes Oregon under Kelly is a BCS bowl victory -- a signature win to complete a season. It lost the Rose Bowl to Ohio State after the 2010 season. It lost the national title game to Auburn after the 2011 season.
While those were both highly competitive games, they are most remembered by fans not wearing green -- or whatever color Oregon is wearing at the moment -- for the Ducks' high-powered offense getting stymied. You know, that whole "you give a good defense more than a week to prepare and it can stop Kelly's tricky spread-option."
We're about to make an assertion that some Ducks fans will disagree with (now there's something that never happens): It's a good thing Oregon isn't getting a rematch with LSU in the national title game.
I would not pick any team in the nation to beat LSU. Not Oregon, not anyone. To be honest, I wouldn't pick Oregon to beat Alabama, either.
At this point, I would pick the Ducks to beat either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Rose Bowl (I suspect they'd pound the Spartans; Wisconsin would be a much tougher test). And Oregon needs a victory in a BCS bowl game to earn national validation.
There is no question Oregon has owned the conference for three years. And, by owning the conference, the Ducks get ownership of all the nice nonconference wins Pac-12 teams have posted during that span. But Oregon doesn't have a marquee nonconference win under Kelly, bowl game or otherwise. Of his six losses, two came in conference play (Stanford, 2009; USC, 2011) and the other four were against highly ranked nonconference foes (Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU).
That's where the Rose Bowl comes in. Beating Wisconsin or Michigan State would give the Ducks a nice season-ending victory that would give them a national uptick heading into 2012.
Losing to LSU, no matter that every other team would do the same, would provide another negative example for those who don't perceive the Ducks as being truly elite. Remember: This is college football. Without a playoff, perception is only slightly less important than win-loss record (see how it at present is benefiting Alabama).
Of course, losing the Rose Bowl would have an even worse effect, one that could trickle down within the Pac-12. It could be the difference between a 2012 preseason No. 5 ranking and a No. 10 one. And, yes, that matters if your goal is to play for a national title.
Ergo: Oregon needs a BCS bowl win. That is a critical next step for the program.
Would that prove dynastic arrival? At the Pac-12 level, it's already there. As a perennial top-10 team, it would, too.
But there is one more step, though. Winning a BCS bowl would set a course, but the ultimate destination is to be standing amid confetti with a big smile in a loud uniform holding that gaudy crystal football after the final BCS bowl game is complete.
- If Oregon beats UCLA on Friday, it will win its third consecutive Pac-10/12 championship. USC (2004-06) is the only Pac-12 school to accomplish that feat since the conference expanded to 10 teams in 1978.
- The Ducks have recorded four consecutive seasons with double-digit victories. Before this run, they had three in program history -- and they all happened over the past 12 years.
- The Ducks have 42 wins since the start of 2008, which is the most in a four-year period in school history. Last year, Oregon set a school record for wins at 12.
- Oregon coach Chip Kelly has led the Ducks to more wins (32) in his first three seasons than any coach in conference history.
- Kelly is 32-6 overall and 25-2 in Pac-12 play. His .926 percentage in conference play is the best in conference history.
And we'd like to announce that Oregon is very likely to win 10 games again in 2012 and will be the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth consecutive conference title, unless a couple of guys at USC decided to wait another year before entering the NFL draft.
[+] Enlarge
Jason O. Watson/US PresswireCoach Chip Kelly has amassed an impressive 32-6 record in his first three seasons at Oregon, but a BCS bowl win has eluded him.
Jason O. Watson/US PresswireCoach Chip Kelly has amassed an impressive 32-6 record in his first three seasons at Oregon, but a BCS bowl win has eluded him.Of course, the NCAA looms over the program due to L'Affaire de Willie Lyles. Oregon has yet to receive its notice of allegations that contains specific alleged rules infractions, but it received official notification of an investigation in September, so it's only a matter of time. That could lead to a slap on the wrist. Or a haymaker that knocks the program out, at least for a bit.
But that's off-the-field stuff. Let's cast our gaze on the field. There is, after all, a space between your thumb and forefinger that needs explaining.
The only element that eludes Oregon under Kelly is a BCS bowl victory -- a signature win to complete a season. It lost the Rose Bowl to Ohio State after the 2010 season. It lost the national title game to Auburn after the 2011 season.
While those were both highly competitive games, they are most remembered by fans not wearing green -- or whatever color Oregon is wearing at the moment -- for the Ducks' high-powered offense getting stymied. You know, that whole "you give a good defense more than a week to prepare and it can stop Kelly's tricky spread-option."
We're about to make an assertion that some Ducks fans will disagree with (now there's something that never happens): It's a good thing Oregon isn't getting a rematch with LSU in the national title game.
I would not pick any team in the nation to beat LSU. Not Oregon, not anyone. To be honest, I wouldn't pick Oregon to beat Alabama, either.
At this point, I would pick the Ducks to beat either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Rose Bowl (I suspect they'd pound the Spartans; Wisconsin would be a much tougher test). And Oregon needs a victory in a BCS bowl game to earn national validation.
There is no question Oregon has owned the conference for three years. And, by owning the conference, the Ducks get ownership of all the nice nonconference wins Pac-12 teams have posted during that span. But Oregon doesn't have a marquee nonconference win under Kelly, bowl game or otherwise. Of his six losses, two came in conference play (Stanford, 2009; USC, 2011) and the other four were against highly ranked nonconference foes (Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU).
That's where the Rose Bowl comes in. Beating Wisconsin or Michigan State would give the Ducks a nice season-ending victory that would give them a national uptick heading into 2012.
Losing to LSU, no matter that every other team would do the same, would provide another negative example for those who don't perceive the Ducks as being truly elite. Remember: This is college football. Without a playoff, perception is only slightly less important than win-loss record (see how it at present is benefiting Alabama).
Of course, losing the Rose Bowl would have an even worse effect, one that could trickle down within the Pac-12. It could be the difference between a 2012 preseason No. 5 ranking and a No. 10 one. And, yes, that matters if your goal is to play for a national title.
Ergo: Oregon needs a BCS bowl win. That is a critical next step for the program.
Would that prove dynastic arrival? At the Pac-12 level, it's already there. As a perennial top-10 team, it would, too.
But there is one more step, though. Winning a BCS bowl would set a course, but the ultimate destination is to be standing amid confetti with a big smile in a loud uniform holding that gaudy crystal football after the final BCS bowl game is complete.
Washington State is upgrading its nonconference schedule with some tough foes, and more may be coming.
But the good news for the Cougars is they also are coming to Pullman.
Washington State has signed home-and-home game contracts with Boise State and BYU. They previously announced an agreement with Wisconsin.
From Howie Stalwick:
Those teams figure to draw crowds and inspire sellouts. Now the Cougars just need to makes sure the team in the home locker room is going to be a threat to send the home crowd home happy.
But the good news for the Cougars is they also are coming to Pullman.
Washington State has signed home-and-home game contracts with Boise State and BYU. They previously announced an agreement with Wisconsin.
From Howie Stalwick:
BYU visits Washington State in 2013, followed by Wisconsin in 2014 and Boise State in 2017.
The Cougars play at BYU next year, travel to Wisconsin in 2015 and visit Boise State in 2016.
[Athletic director Bill Moos] said he's engaged in "preliminary" talks with such schools as Nebraska, Michigan State and Texas A&M about playing home-and-home.
Those teams figure to draw crowds and inspire sellouts. Now the Cougars just need to makes sure the team in the home locker room is going to be a threat to send the home crowd home happy.
Who gets and stops explosive rushing?
February, 24, 2011
2/24/11
4:00
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By
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
Coaches love talking about explosion plays. You want to get a lot of them and give up very few.
We looked at offensive explosion plays -- plays of 20 or more yards -- on Tuesday and defenses that prevented explosion plays on Wednesday. Today we look at explosion plays in terms of rushing offense and rushing defense. On Friday, we'll look at explosion plays in terms of passing numbers.
So here's how the Pac-12 stacked up in 2010 (again, thanks to ESPN Stats & Information). The number to the left in national rank. The number to the right is the total number of explosion plays in the running game in 2010.
4. Oregon... 39
25. Stanford... 21
29. Washington... 20
29. UCLA... 20
49. USC... 16
49. Utah... 16
66. Arizona... 14
66. Arizona State... 14
83. Oregon State... 12
91. California... 11
91. Colorado... 11
99. Washington State... 10
Not many surprises here, though Oregon State's and California's totals might seem low, considering the quality of their tailbacks: Jacquizz Rodgers and Shane Vereen.
Some other thoughts.
But do piling up explosion plays in the run game correlate to winning? Short answer: More often than not, though a lot has to do with scheme (Georgia Tech and Navy, for example, run triple-options and don't pass much). Here's the top 10 in 2010 with the team's record in parentheses to the right.
1. Georgia Tech... 45 (6-7)
2. Northern Illinois... 42 (11-3)
3. Auburn... 41 (14-0)
4. Oregon... 39 (12-1)
5. Nevada... 38 (13-1)
6. Nebraska... 36 (10-4)
7. North Texas... 32 (3-9)
8. Mississippi... 31 (4-8)
9. Baylor... 30 (7-6)
10. Tulsa... 28 (10-3)
10. Navy... 28 (9-4)
Three teams -- including No. 1 -- posted losing records. On the other hand, seven won nine or more games and six won 10 or more.
Now, on to defense, starting with the Pac-12.
The number to the left in national rank. The number to the right is the total number of rushing explosion plays yielded in 2010.
2. Arizona State... 6
13. Arizona... 9
13. Utah... 9
13. California... 9
37. Oregon State... 12
45. Stanford... 14
59. Oregon... 16
82. Colorado... 18
90. USC... 19
98. Washington... 22
103. UCLA... 23
117. Washington State... 29
Arizona is a bit surprising because the Wildcats struggled against the run this season, particularly over the second half of 2010. Stanford is a little low because it gave up four runs of 20-plus yards in its loss to Oregon.
Some other thoughts.
But do limiting rushing explosion plays on defense correlate to winning? Short answer: Not as much as you'd think, at least this past season. Here's the top 10 in 2010 with the team's record in parentheses to the right.
1. Iowa... 5 (8-5)
2. Arizona State... 6 (6-6)
2. Boston College... 6 (7-6)
4. Purdue... 7 (4-8)
4. Iowa State... 7 (5-7)
4. SMU... 7 (7-7)
4. Florida... 7 (8-5)
4. Ohio State... 7 (12-1)
9. Temple... 8 (8-4)
9. Michigan State... 8 (11-2)
9. Buffalo... 8 (2-10)
9. Wyoming... 8 (3-9)
That's six teams (out of 12) at .500 or below, including two teams who combined for 19 losses. Just two teams -- Ohio State and Michigan State -- won double-digit games. Oklahoma went 12-2 despite giving up 25 rushing explosion plays, which ranked 109th in the nation. Heck, Kansas State finished 7-6 despite giving up 31 such plays, worst in the nation.
That said: Seven of the 12 teams that gave up 25 or more explosion plays finished with losing records, and four won three or fewer games.
We looked at offensive explosion plays -- plays of 20 or more yards -- on Tuesday and defenses that prevented explosion plays on Wednesday. Today we look at explosion plays in terms of rushing offense and rushing defense. On Friday, we'll look at explosion plays in terms of passing numbers.
So here's how the Pac-12 stacked up in 2010 (again, thanks to ESPN Stats & Information). The number to the left in national rank. The number to the right is the total number of explosion plays in the running game in 2010.
4. Oregon... 39
25. Stanford... 21
29. Washington... 20
29. UCLA... 20
49. USC... 16
49. Utah... 16
66. Arizona... 14
66. Arizona State... 14
83. Oregon State... 12
91. California... 11
91. Colorado... 11
99. Washington State... 10
Not many surprises here, though Oregon State's and California's totals might seem low, considering the quality of their tailbacks: Jacquizz Rodgers and Shane Vereen.
Some other thoughts.
- Oregon ranked second in 2009 (39) and third in 2008 (37). The Ducks, Nevada and Georgia Tech each ranked in the top five the past three seasons.
- California ranked 18th in 2009 with 24 runs of 20 or more yards, and eighth in 2008 with 30, so its drop-off in 2010 was substantial.
- With Toby Gerhart, the 2009 Heisman Trophy runner-up, Stanford had 20 runs of 20 or more yards. Without him in 2010, it had 21. That said: In 2008, when the Cardinal went 5-7 and Tavita Pritchard was the starting QB, it produced 25 such runs, which ranked 12th in the country.
- In 2008, UCLA and Washington State tied for 109th in the nation with just six explosion runs. In 2009, Washington State had 10 and UCLA nine, thereby ranking 95th and 98th, respectively. While the Bruins new pistol offense didn't help the passing game, it certainly helped produce explosion plays in the running game, more than tripling the 2008 output and more than doubling what was produced in 2009.
- Buffalo ranked last in the nation with just two runs of over 20 yards, the worst total over the past three seasons. Nothing to do with the Pac-10, but that's really, really pathetic.
But do piling up explosion plays in the run game correlate to winning? Short answer: More often than not, though a lot has to do with scheme (Georgia Tech and Navy, for example, run triple-options and don't pass much). Here's the top 10 in 2010 with the team's record in parentheses to the right.
1. Georgia Tech... 45 (6-7)
2. Northern Illinois... 42 (11-3)
3. Auburn... 41 (14-0)
4. Oregon... 39 (12-1)
5. Nevada... 38 (13-1)
6. Nebraska... 36 (10-4)
7. North Texas... 32 (3-9)
8. Mississippi... 31 (4-8)
9. Baylor... 30 (7-6)
10. Tulsa... 28 (10-3)
10. Navy... 28 (9-4)
Three teams -- including No. 1 -- posted losing records. On the other hand, seven won nine or more games and six won 10 or more.
Now, on to defense, starting with the Pac-12.
The number to the left in national rank. The number to the right is the total number of rushing explosion plays yielded in 2010.
2. Arizona State... 6
13. Arizona... 9
13. Utah... 9
13. California... 9
37. Oregon State... 12
45. Stanford... 14
59. Oregon... 16
82. Colorado... 18
90. USC... 19
98. Washington... 22
103. UCLA... 23
117. Washington State... 29
Arizona is a bit surprising because the Wildcats struggled against the run this season, particularly over the second half of 2010. Stanford is a little low because it gave up four runs of 20-plus yards in its loss to Oregon.
Some other thoughts.
- Oregon State's number isn't bad, but in 2009 it was tied for fourth in the nation -- and No. 1 in the Pac-10 -- after yielding just six explosion rushing plays.
- Oregon had better defensive numbers this season than in the previous two, but the Ducks gave up only nine explosion rushing plays in 2008 and 2009.
- This is clearly an area where Washington struggles. In 2009, it gave up 21 explosion rushing plays (102nd in nation) and 22 in 2008 (102nd in nation).
- Washington State yielded 22 rushing explosion plays in 2009 (106th in nation) and 34 in 2008 (worst in the nation) Cougars: You need to get better here.
- In 2008, Tennessee gave up just one run of 20 or more yards. No other team over the past three seasons has yielded fewer than three. In 2009, under new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, it gave up 21, which ranked 102nd in the nation. This past season, while Kiffin was in his first season at USC, the Vols yielded 16, which ranked 59th, tied with USC. In 2009, the year before Kiffin arrived at USC, the Trojans yielded 13, which ranked 42nd. Just saying.
- While a number of teams are consistently good in this area -- Ohio State, Florida and South Florida, to name a few -- only Iowa ranked in the top 10 the past three seasons.
But do limiting rushing explosion plays on defense correlate to winning? Short answer: Not as much as you'd think, at least this past season. Here's the top 10 in 2010 with the team's record in parentheses to the right.
1. Iowa... 5 (8-5)
2. Arizona State... 6 (6-6)
2. Boston College... 6 (7-6)
4. Purdue... 7 (4-8)
4. Iowa State... 7 (5-7)
4. SMU... 7 (7-7)
4. Florida... 7 (8-5)
4. Ohio State... 7 (12-1)
9. Temple... 8 (8-4)
9. Michigan State... 8 (11-2)
9. Buffalo... 8 (2-10)
9. Wyoming... 8 (3-9)
That's six teams (out of 12) at .500 or below, including two teams who combined for 19 losses. Just two teams -- Ohio State and Michigan State -- won double-digit games. Oklahoma went 12-2 despite giving up 25 rushing explosion plays, which ranked 109th in the nation. Heck, Kansas State finished 7-6 despite giving up 31 such plays, worst in the nation.
That said: Seven of the 12 teams that gave up 25 or more explosion plays finished with losing records, and four won three or fewer games.
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Just after Oregon won the Civil War over state rival Oregon State on Dec. 4, the Ducks were asked about playing for the national title against massive, football-playing robots who came into existence after monstrous demon blacksmiths hammered them together in the darkest regions of Hades.
Or, you know, an SEC team.
Even five weeks ago, the question -- SEC vs. Pac-10 -- didn't really light much of a fire under the Ducks.
"We're going to play whoever," running back Kenjon Barner said at the time. "Who can say a conference is better than another conference or anything like that? We're just going to go out and play how we have to play."
Oregon coach Chip Kelly was asked about the SEC's success in the championship games -- it's been whispered about by a few SEC moles that the conference has won four consecutive BCS national titles -- and whether that was meaningful to him.
For those of us who regularly chat with Kelly, we knew what was coming.
"We never get caught up in that," Kelly said. "We are not playing for the Pac-10. In my opinion, they are not playing for the SEC. It is Auburn versus Oregon. I don't think you can look at past successes and say, 'Hey, this conference did this, this conference did this.' You have no idea. Two years ago we went 5-0 in bowl games in the Pac-10 and everybody talked about us, and last year we didn't do a real good job. So I think it's a cyclical thing and each team is their own entity. We are not playing for the Pac-10, I can tell you that. We're playing for Oregon. It is Oregon versus Auburn ... I will never stand up in front of my team and say we are carrying the flag for nine other teams or whatever."
Is that just coachspeak, or another Chippism about playing a "faceless" opponent and not listening to "outside influences"? Maybe. But it seemed fairly clear that Kelly's Ducks were buying in. If a player was into the whole "SEC vs. the Pac-10" angle, the Pac-10 blog didn't hear it this week.
"We're not really worried about that," quarterback Darron Thomas said. "We're just going out playing against whoever we've got to play against."
Running back LaMichael James refused to bite when asked if the SEC was overhyped by the media: "I don't think they are making too much of it. [The SEC has] won, so I really can't say anything negative." But he then added, "It's not the Pac-10 versus the SEC. It is us versus Oregon. I mean, Auburn."
Oh, but this is a big angle for fans. There will be a lot of football fans across the country rooting for Oregon in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game just so the SEC doesn't win its fifth consecutive national title.
Further, a Ducks victory would undermine the theory of SEC superiority, at least in 2010-11.
If Auburn loses, the SEC will go 4-6 in bowl games and the Pac-10 3-1. Thus far, the SEC only has two bowl victories over ranked teams (Alabama over No. 9 Michigan State and LSU over No. 17 Texas A&M) -- the same number as the Pac-10 (Washington over No. 18 Nebraska and Stanford over No. 13 Virginia Tech).
Finally, if Oregon wins, the Pac-10 will improve to 13-9 versus the SEC this millennium. That's a fairly robust number in support of a, "Scoreboard, baby!"
While none of this qualifies as a thorough and objective measure of relative conference strength, it will give something for fans to crow about out west.
And if Auburn wins? Well, there isn't much you can say about five consecutive national titles and a fifth different SEC team winning a crystal football. That's impressive by any measure.
As for the Oregon players, they did show some signs of annoyance with certain questions this week, only they didn't really have a regional element to them. The oft-repeated theory that Auburn was too big for Oregon seemed to inspire more than a few smirks from the Ducks.
"They are a big team," Thomas said. "Tennessee was a big team. Like I said, there are teams in the Pac-10 just as physical, just as fast. Nothing we haven't ever seen before. So it is going to be a similar thing."
A similar thing? To the 48-13 win at Tennessee? Or the Ducks' 31-point average margin of victory? Hmm.
Just know this: When the smoke clears Monday night, one of the main headlines will be about which conference came out on top.
Or, you know, an SEC team.
Even five weeks ago, the question -- SEC vs. Pac-10 -- didn't really light much of a fire under the Ducks.
"We're going to play whoever," running back Kenjon Barner said at the time. "Who can say a conference is better than another conference or anything like that? We're just going to go out and play how we have to play."
[+] Enlarge
Steve Dykes/Getty ImagesChip Kelly says the Ducks are not playing for the Pac-10 in the BCS title game.
Steve Dykes/Getty ImagesChip Kelly says the Ducks are not playing for the Pac-10 in the BCS title game.For those of us who regularly chat with Kelly, we knew what was coming.
"We never get caught up in that," Kelly said. "We are not playing for the Pac-10. In my opinion, they are not playing for the SEC. It is Auburn versus Oregon. I don't think you can look at past successes and say, 'Hey, this conference did this, this conference did this.' You have no idea. Two years ago we went 5-0 in bowl games in the Pac-10 and everybody talked about us, and last year we didn't do a real good job. So I think it's a cyclical thing and each team is their own entity. We are not playing for the Pac-10, I can tell you that. We're playing for Oregon. It is Oregon versus Auburn ... I will never stand up in front of my team and say we are carrying the flag for nine other teams or whatever."
Is that just coachspeak, or another Chippism about playing a "faceless" opponent and not listening to "outside influences"? Maybe. But it seemed fairly clear that Kelly's Ducks were buying in. If a player was into the whole "SEC vs. the Pac-10" angle, the Pac-10 blog didn't hear it this week.
"We're not really worried about that," quarterback Darron Thomas said. "We're just going out playing against whoever we've got to play against."
Running back LaMichael James refused to bite when asked if the SEC was overhyped by the media: "I don't think they are making too much of it. [The SEC has] won, so I really can't say anything negative." But he then added, "It's not the Pac-10 versus the SEC. It is us versus Oregon. I mean, Auburn."
Oh, but this is a big angle for fans. There will be a lot of football fans across the country rooting for Oregon in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game just so the SEC doesn't win its fifth consecutive national title.
Further, a Ducks victory would undermine the theory of SEC superiority, at least in 2010-11.
If Auburn loses, the SEC will go 4-6 in bowl games and the Pac-10 3-1. Thus far, the SEC only has two bowl victories over ranked teams (Alabama over No. 9 Michigan State and LSU over No. 17 Texas A&M) -- the same number as the Pac-10 (Washington over No. 18 Nebraska and Stanford over No. 13 Virginia Tech).
Finally, if Oregon wins, the Pac-10 will improve to 13-9 versus the SEC this millennium. That's a fairly robust number in support of a, "Scoreboard, baby!"
While none of this qualifies as a thorough and objective measure of relative conference strength, it will give something for fans to crow about out west.
And if Auburn wins? Well, there isn't much you can say about five consecutive national titles and a fifth different SEC team winning a crystal football. That's impressive by any measure.
As for the Oregon players, they did show some signs of annoyance with certain questions this week, only they didn't really have a regional element to them. The oft-repeated theory that Auburn was too big for Oregon seemed to inspire more than a few smirks from the Ducks.
"They are a big team," Thomas said. "Tennessee was a big team. Like I said, there are teams in the Pac-10 just as physical, just as fast. Nothing we haven't ever seen before. So it is going to be a similar thing."
A similar thing? To the 48-13 win at Tennessee? Or the Ducks' 31-point average margin of victory? Hmm.
Just know this: When the smoke clears Monday night, one of the main headlines will be about which conference came out on top.
Oregon's Kelly is national Coach of the year
December, 6, 2010
12/06/10
5:18
PM ET
By
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
Chip Kelly's head coaching career has begun fairly well. In his first season, he led the Ducks to the Rose Bowl. In his second, he guided them to the national title game opposite Auburn.
And now Kelly has been named the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year award by the Football Writers Association of America.
Kelly was a finalist for the award last year,when he was named Pac-10 Coach of the Year. He's 22-3 in two years in Eugene, including a 17-1 record in Pac-10 play.
Kelly is the second Oregon head coach to receive the award named for Grambling’s legendary coach, joining 1994 winner Rich Brooks.
The other finalists for the award were Gene Chizik (Auburn) -- who Kelly will face on Jan. 10 in Glendale, Ariz., -- Bret Bielema (Wisconsin), Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), Jim Harbaugh (Stanford), Gary Patterson (TCU) and Chris Petersen (Boise State).
Kelly also has been named named regional co-coach of the year along with Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh by the American Football Coaches Association. The AFCA selects its national coach of the year following the bowl season.
And now Kelly has been named the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year award by the Football Writers Association of America.
Kelly was a finalist for the award last year,when he was named Pac-10 Coach of the Year. He's 22-3 in two years in Eugene, including a 17-1 record in Pac-10 play.
Kelly is the second Oregon head coach to receive the award named for Grambling’s legendary coach, joining 1994 winner Rich Brooks.
The other finalists for the award were Gene Chizik (Auburn) -- who Kelly will face on Jan. 10 in Glendale, Ariz., -- Bret Bielema (Wisconsin), Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), Jim Harbaugh (Stanford), Gary Patterson (TCU) and Chris Petersen (Boise State).
Kelly also has been named named regional co-coach of the year along with Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh by the American Football Coaches Association. The AFCA selects its national coach of the year following the bowl season.
Why Stanford is better than your team
November, 29, 2010
11/29/10
4:48
PM ET
By
Ted Miller | ESPN.com
Stanford is better than your team because it's got a better quarterback than your team. Stanford is better than your team because your team hasn't shut out three BCS conference opponents this year. Stanford is better than your team because its offensive line would make your defensive front cry uncle. Stanford is better than your team because it's ranked eighth in the nation in scoring offense and 11th in scoring defense, and no other BCS conference team can match that.
And, finally, Stanford is better than your team because its coach can kick your coach's butt.
Stanford is 11-1 playing against the nation's eighth toughest schedule in the nation's toughest conference, according to the highly respected Sagarin Ratings. Its only loss came at Oregon, which is No. 1 in all the major polls and No. 2 in the BCS standings.
Ewwww. Yuck. Heads just exploded everywhere outside the West Coast.
Are we being intentionally provocative and just a bit disingenuous? Yes. Why? Because those who follow Pac-10 football get to be provocative and disingenuous at this time every year because you get so much lunkheaded and disingenuous analysis that questions the quality of the nation's toughest conference.
No, we are not saying the Pac-10 is the nation's "best" conference. It's the toughest because it plays by different rules, and Stanford's stunning success playing by those rules sets it apart.
That combination of nine conference games and tough nonconference scheduling also leads to this: No Pac-10 team played fewer than five road games this year. Seven played six -- including Oregon and Stanford -- and USC played seven.
Contrast that with other top-10 BCS programs: Auburn (four road games), Wisconsin (five), Ohio State (four), Arkansas (four), Michigan State (four), Oklahoma (five) and LSU (four).
If you don't believe playing two fewer road games a season is a huge advantage, you know nothing about college football.
This is a long setup to this: Stanford critics point out it has only beaten three teams with a winning record. That sounds like a meaningful critique. But again reference the bullet points above.
Then consider this: There are 19 other bowl-eligible BCS conference teams that are 6-6 or 7-5. How many would not be bowl eligible if they played an extra conference game, another road game (or two), one fewer nonconference patsy and one more tough nonconference game?
Arizona State likely will finish tied for seventh in the Pac-10 if it loses Thursday at Arizona. Yet the Sun Devils were good enough to push Wisconsin to the brink before losing 20-19 on the road.
UCLA will finish ninth in the conference if it loses to USC on Saturday. Yet the Bruins were good enough to beat Texas and Houston. Sure, those teams fell well short of preseason expectations, but which team finishing second to last in a BCS conference has a better nonconference resume?
In other words, 5-7 in the Pac-10 is much different than it is in the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and ACC. That's what the non-biased Sagarin Ratings take note of when it rates the Pac-10 ahead of other conferences.
And that's what Stanford emerged from -- with a 22.5-point average margin of victory.
Of course, proving the quality of Stanford is only part of the issue. Most who aren't blinded by fandom recognized early on that the Cardinal were an elite team. But it's also fair to say that the Cardinal are not an elite team in terms of attendance, which is why Stanford might not have received a BCS bowl berth if it hadn't climbed to No. 4 in the BCS standings, which earned it a guaranteed spot.
It's worth noting that Stanford fans turned out last year for the Sun Bowl, which set a stadium and game record with 53,713 fans in attendance.
But the Cardinal this year also have two of the biggest drawing cards in the country, for ticket sales and TV ratings: quarterback Andrew Luck and coach Jim Harbaugh. Those two will attract not only college football fans, but also NFL fans who are curious about the top-rated college quarterback and a coach who is on a lot of wish lists -- college and pro.
The honest truth is that we do not know if Stanford is better than your team. We just typed that to make you mad. Sorry.
What we do know is Stanford belongs. It has earned a berth in a BCS bowl game because it is an elite team.
And what we suspect is the Cardinal will have proven that when the bowl season ends.
And, finally, Stanford is better than your team because its coach can kick your coach's butt.
[+] Enlarge
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesAndrew Luck finished the season with more than 3,000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns.
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesAndrew Luck finished the season with more than 3,000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns.Ewwww. Yuck. Heads just exploded everywhere outside the West Coast.
Are we being intentionally provocative and just a bit disingenuous? Yes. Why? Because those who follow Pac-10 football get to be provocative and disingenuous at this time every year because you get so much lunkheaded and disingenuous analysis that questions the quality of the nation's toughest conference.
No, we are not saying the Pac-10 is the nation's "best" conference. It's the toughest because it plays by different rules, and Stanford's stunning success playing by those rules sets it apart.
- The Pac-10 plays nine conference games, which no other conference does. That means five more defeats are guaranteed to be scattered throughout the conference every season, thereby making it a mathematical fact that it's more difficult to become bowl eligible in the Pac-10 than any other conference.
- The Pac-10 plays the most challenging nonconference schedule among the BCS conferences. Not only has it played six top-17 teams in the current BCS standings, it played five of them all on the road. And that list doesn't include Iowa, Texas, Notre Dame, Tennessee and BYU.
That combination of nine conference games and tough nonconference scheduling also leads to this: No Pac-10 team played fewer than five road games this year. Seven played six -- including Oregon and Stanford -- and USC played seven.
Contrast that with other top-10 BCS programs: Auburn (four road games), Wisconsin (five), Ohio State (four), Arkansas (four), Michigan State (four), Oklahoma (five) and LSU (four).
If you don't believe playing two fewer road games a season is a huge advantage, you know nothing about college football.
This is a long setup to this: Stanford critics point out it has only beaten three teams with a winning record. That sounds like a meaningful critique. But again reference the bullet points above.
Then consider this: There are 19 other bowl-eligible BCS conference teams that are 6-6 or 7-5. How many would not be bowl eligible if they played an extra conference game, another road game (or two), one fewer nonconference patsy and one more tough nonconference game?
[+] Enlarge
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesJim Harbaugh's only loss of the season was against No. 1-ranked Oregon.
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesJim Harbaugh's only loss of the season was against No. 1-ranked Oregon. UCLA will finish ninth in the conference if it loses to USC on Saturday. Yet the Bruins were good enough to beat Texas and Houston. Sure, those teams fell well short of preseason expectations, but which team finishing second to last in a BCS conference has a better nonconference resume?
In other words, 5-7 in the Pac-10 is much different than it is in the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and ACC. That's what the non-biased Sagarin Ratings take note of when it rates the Pac-10 ahead of other conferences.
And that's what Stanford emerged from -- with a 22.5-point average margin of victory.
Of course, proving the quality of Stanford is only part of the issue. Most who aren't blinded by fandom recognized early on that the Cardinal were an elite team. But it's also fair to say that the Cardinal are not an elite team in terms of attendance, which is why Stanford might not have received a BCS bowl berth if it hadn't climbed to No. 4 in the BCS standings, which earned it a guaranteed spot.
It's worth noting that Stanford fans turned out last year for the Sun Bowl, which set a stadium and game record with 53,713 fans in attendance.
But the Cardinal this year also have two of the biggest drawing cards in the country, for ticket sales and TV ratings: quarterback Andrew Luck and coach Jim Harbaugh. Those two will attract not only college football fans, but also NFL fans who are curious about the top-rated college quarterback and a coach who is on a lot of wish lists -- college and pro.
The honest truth is that we do not know if Stanford is better than your team. We just typed that to make you mad. Sorry.
What we do know is Stanford belongs. It has earned a berth in a BCS bowl game because it is an elite team.
And what we suspect is the Cardinal will have proven that when the bowl season ends.
Stanford: You probably aren't going to the Rose Bowl.
The most likely scenario is (at present): Oregon-Auburn in the national title game and TCU in the Rose Bowl opposite the Big Ten champion.
That's what happened when Auburn rallied for a win at Alabama and Boise State lost to Nevada, which actually helps your BCS bowl cause, just not so much for the Rose Bowl.
The only way Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl is if Oregon and TCU play for the national title. That would require Auburn losing in the SEC title game. And if Oregon falls at Oregon State next weekend, then the Ducks go to the Rose Bowl.
But there is still hope for a BCS bowl game. All the Cardinal need is to push into the top 4 of the final BCS standings. That would guarantee it an automatic berth, per BCS rules.
With Boise State's loss, the Cardinal figure to move up from No. 6 in the standings to No. 5. At least. Because if Arkansas beats No. 5 LSU today, the Cardinal likely would move into the top 4. And that would mean either the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl would have to take the Cardinal.
What about Wisconsin? Well, it wouldn't hurt for the No. 7 Badgers to lose to Northwestern. Wisconsin is likely headed to the Rose Bowl, but if it eclipses Stanford in the BCS standings and moves into the No. 4 spot, it would likely kill the Cardinal's BCS bowl chances.
So, Stanford fans should spend Saturday: 1. Rooting for the Cardinal against Oregon State; 2. Rooting against every one-loss team (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State).
The most likely scenario is (at present): Oregon-Auburn in the national title game and TCU in the Rose Bowl opposite the Big Ten champion.
That's what happened when Auburn rallied for a win at Alabama and Boise State lost to Nevada, which actually helps your BCS bowl cause, just not so much for the Rose Bowl.
The only way Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl is if Oregon and TCU play for the national title. That would require Auburn losing in the SEC title game. And if Oregon falls at Oregon State next weekend, then the Ducks go to the Rose Bowl.
But there is still hope for a BCS bowl game. All the Cardinal need is to push into the top 4 of the final BCS standings. That would guarantee it an automatic berth, per BCS rules.
With Boise State's loss, the Cardinal figure to move up from No. 6 in the standings to No. 5. At least. Because if Arkansas beats No. 5 LSU today, the Cardinal likely would move into the top 4. And that would mean either the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl would have to take the Cardinal.
What about Wisconsin? Well, it wouldn't hurt for the No. 7 Badgers to lose to Northwestern. Wisconsin is likely headed to the Rose Bowl, but if it eclipses Stanford in the BCS standings and moves into the No. 4 spot, it would likely kill the Cardinal's BCS bowl chances.
So, Stanford fans should spend Saturday: 1. Rooting for the Cardinal against Oregon State; 2. Rooting against every one-loss team (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State).
Oregon, Stanford and Arizona are on the list of 11 teams still contending for berths in BCS bowl games, the BCS announced Tuesday.
First, there are the contenders for AQ conference titles.
ACC: Florida State, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Big East: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10: Oregon, Stanford
SEC: Auburn, South Carolina
A seventh spot will be reserved for the top-rated team from a non-AQ conference: Boise State or TCU. That means there will be three at-large invitations this year.
In addition to the aforementioned teams, the pool of teams remaining under consideration also includes (in alphabetical order): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Boise State, LSU, Nevada, Utah, and TCU.
The final BCS standings will be compiled Sunday, Dec. 5. The BCS bowl pairings will be announced at 8:15 p.m. EST that evening on ESPN.
First, there are the contenders for AQ conference titles.
ACC: Florida State, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Big East: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Pac-10: Oregon, Stanford
SEC: Auburn, South Carolina
A seventh spot will be reserved for the top-rated team from a non-AQ conference: Boise State or TCU. That means there will be three at-large invitations this year.
In addition to the aforementioned teams, the pool of teams remaining under consideration also includes (in alphabetical order): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Boise State, LSU, Nevada, Utah, and TCU.
The final BCS standings will be compiled Sunday, Dec. 5. The BCS bowl pairings will be announced at 8:15 p.m. EST that evening on ESPN.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Ted Miller
Miller has been covering college football since 1997, starting with Auburn and then heading West to Washington and the Pac-12. His columns for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer won first place in the 2007 APSE Best Writing contest. The Atlanta native and University of Richmond graduate presently lives with his wife in Scottsdale, Ariz.
Kevin Gemmell
Gemmell covered San Diego State and the Mountain West Conference for three years before joining ESPN.com. As a Santa Clara graduate, his hope is that the Broncos will one day re-institute football. Until then, he lives vicariously through his readers. Gemmell lives in California with his wife and son.
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