ESPN College Football

Too early for bowl projections? Maybe? Probably? Nah.

Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com doesn't think so and he's released his bowl projections for all 35 games next season.

Of the 12 teams in the conference, he has eight of them heading to the postseason -- most notably -- USC playing in the national championship game against LSU. And according to Palm, Oregon also makes another appearance in the Rose Bowl.

The four teams on the outside looking in are Colorado, UCLA, Washington State and Oregon State.

Here's a look at the bowl games he's projecting that include Pac-12 teams:

• BCS National Championship game (Jan. 7 in Miami): USC vs. LSU
• Rose Bowl (Jan. 2 in Pasadena, Calif.): Oregon vs. Michigan
• Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Arizona State vs. Navy
• Sun Bowl: Washington vs. North Carolina State
• Alamo Bowl: Utah vs. Kansas State
• Holiday Bowl: Stanford vs. Baylor (would have loved to see that matchup in 2011)
• Maaco Bowl: Cal vs. Boise State
• New Mexico Bowl: Arizona vs. Air Force

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — They tailgated all day and they waved blue towels and they bounced up and down to seemingly every possible sports pump-up song imaginable. They enjoyed the bright lights and marveled at the shiny new helmets and saw Saturday's matchup build into more than just another game on their schedule.

And though it wasn't exactly clear what Notre Dame fans could have expected when looking back at a USC squad that ran through the home team and slowed its ground game to a halt, it was certainly more than this:

A 31-17 loss to the arch-rival, its ninth defeat in the past 10 meetings. A turnover-plagued performance that brought to mind the adventures of the season's first two weeks. And, most of all, the harsh reality that the BCS-bowl dreams that began before the season are all but officially over just seven games into 2011.

"I think from a player's standpoint, maybe we didn't stay true to who we were," fifth-year safety and captain Harrison Smith said. "Maybe we did buy into the hype, and we can't do that again. We didn't play with poise and there were penalties that you just can't have if you wanna win."

The five penalties will sting but not as much as the three turnovers, particularly after consecutive games without any. An early and surprising 17-0 deficit gave the Irish no margin for error in attemping their comeback, one made easier by — who would have thunk it? — special teams.

George Atkinson's 96-yard kick return for a touchdown brought the Irish to life in the second quarter, and they managed to tack on a field goal before the break to somehow make a seven-point game out of a half that saw them outgained by nearly a 2-to-1 margin.

Tommy Rees went down with a hyperextended right knee midway through the third quarter and Dayne Crist stepped in — and this looked like redemption for the California kid against USC, first hitting Cierre Wood for 4 yards, then hitting Tyler Eifert two plays later on a crucial fourth down, the ball moving and Notre Dame closing in on the Trojans after being outplayed for a majority of the game before that point.

Three plays later, third-and-goal at the 1, Crist fumbled the snap. Eighty yards later and Jawanza Starling was in the end zone with the ball and a 14-point Trojans lead, one that looked so big yet so familiar given Crist's last third-and-goal-from-the-1 play this season, even if he wasn't to blame for the opening-drive gaffe against South Florida in Week 1.

"Losing stinks. For me, it's hard for me to put a stink-meter on losing. They all stink," coach Brian Kelly said. "You know what I'm disappointed in? This is the first time that I've leaned on my guys pretty hard in the locker room. I was not happy. Because we're better than that. We're better than that. And, to turn the ball over in the ridiculous fashion that we have, I just, just makes me crazy. In terms of, I just don't understand how something so easy can come out the way it does.

"So I told our guys, 'Listen, every time we try to take a step forward, we seem to wanna take one step back.' I'm not gonna tolerate it. It's not gonna be pretty this week in practice. If we gotta go back and tackle every day, we'll tackle every day, because they know how I feel about the way we played."

The hypothetical playoffs that Notre Dame talked about so much have come to an unceremonious end, and now comes the more challenging part, re-focusing on the next-best-thing with plenty of season remaining, five games to prove to all that this is not a lost cause after its record fell to 4-3 with a return of similar frustration.

Perhaps the normal 3:30 p.m. start next week against Navy will spark what had become a familiarity with this team in its previous four games, moving the ball efficiently while eliminating the bad mistakes.

For now, rebounding from this letdown and controlling emotions is the next step, one Notre Dame received a hard lesson in Saturday night from its rival out West.

"You're trying to get at something that I think is real, and we talked about this," Kelly said when asked if his players could have been too excited going into Saturday. "We had some guys that didn't play with poise that need to play with poise. Championship football teams play with competitive greatness, which means when the stakes are high and the stage is great, they raise their game.

"Today, in that same situation, some of our players didn't raise their level of play. That to me is poise, and we're still building that. That's a hard thing to dig at. But we're still building that."

Coaches love talking about explosion plays. You want to get a lot of them and give up very few.

We looked at offensive explosion plays -- plays of 20 or more yards -- on Tuesday and defenses that prevented explosion plays on Wednesday. Today we look at explosion plays in terms of rushing offense and rushing defense. On Friday, we'll look at explosion plays in terms of passing numbers.

So here's how the Pac-12 stacked up in 2010 (again, thanks to ESPN Stats & Information). The number to the left in national rank. The number to the right is the total number of explosion plays in the running game in 2010.

4. Oregon... 39
25. Stanford... 21
29. Washington... 20
29. UCLA... 20
49. USC... 16
49. Utah... 16
66. Arizona... 14
66. Arizona State... 14
83. Oregon State... 12
91. California... 11
91. Colorado... 11
99. Washington State... 10

Not many surprises here, though Oregon State's and California's totals might seem low, considering the quality of their tailbacks: Jacquizz Rodgers and Shane Vereen.

Some other thoughts.

• Oregon ranked second in 2009 (39) and third in 2008 (37). The Ducks, Nevada and Georgia Tech each ranked in the top five the past three seasons.
• California ranked 18th in 2009 with 24 runs of 20 or more yards, and eighth in 2008 with 30, so its drop-off in 2010 was substantial.
• With Toby Gerhart, the 2009 Heisman Trophy runner-up, Stanford had 20 runs of 20 or more yards. Without him in 2010, it had 21. That said: In 2008, when the Cardinal went 5-7 and Tavita Pritchard was the starting QB, it produced 25 such runs, which ranked 12th in the country.
• In 2008, UCLA and Washington State tied for 109th in the nation with just six explosion runs. In 2009, Washington State had 10 and UCLA nine, thereby ranking 95th and 98th, respectively. While the Bruins new pistol offense didn't help the passing game, it certainly helped produce explosion plays in the running game, more than tripling the 2008 output and more than doubling what was produced in 2009.
• Buffalo ranked last in the nation with just two runs of over 20 yards, the worst total over the past three seasons. Nothing to do with the Pac-10, but that's really, really pathetic.

But do piling up explosion plays in the run game correlate to winning? Short answer: More often than not, though a lot has to do with scheme (Georgia Tech and Navy, for example, run triple-options and don't pass much). Here's the top 10 in 2010 with the team's record in parentheses to the right.

1. Georgia Tech... 45 (6-7)
2. Northern Illinois... 42 (11-3)
3. Auburn... 41 (14-0)
4. Oregon... 39 (12-1)
5. Nevada... 38 (13-1)
6. Nebraska... 36 (10-4)
7. North Texas... 32 (3-9)
8. Mississippi... 31 (4-8)
9. Baylor... 30 (7-6)
10. Tulsa... 28 (10-3)
10. Navy... 28 (9-4)

Three teams -- including No. 1 -- posted losing records. On the other hand, seven won nine or more games and six won 10 or more.

Now, on to defense, starting with the Pac-12.

The number to the left in national rank. The number to the right is the total number of rushing explosion plays yielded in 2010.

2. Arizona State... 6
13. Arizona... 9
13. Utah... 9
13. California... 9
37. Oregon State... 12
45. Stanford... 14
59. Oregon... 16
82. Colorado... 18
90. USC... 19
98. Washington... 22
103. UCLA... 23
117. Washington State... 29

Arizona is a bit surprising because the Wildcats struggled against the run this season, particularly over the second half of 2010. Stanford is a little low because it gave up four runs of 20-plus yards in its loss to Oregon.

Some other thoughts.

• Oregon State's number isn't bad, but in 2009 it was tied for fourth in the nation -- and No. 1 in the Pac-10 -- after yielding just six explosion rushing plays.
• Oregon had better defensive numbers this season than in the previous two, but the Ducks gave up only nine explosion rushing plays in 2008 and 2009.
• This is clearly an area where Washington struggles. In 2009, it gave up 21 explosion rushing plays (102nd in nation) and 22 in 2008 (102nd in nation).
• Washington State yielded 22 rushing explosion plays in 2009 (106th in nation) and 34 in 2008 (worst in the nation) Cougars: You need to get better here.
• In 2008, Tennessee gave up just one run of 20 or more yards. No other team over the past three seasons has yielded fewer than three. In 2009, under new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, it gave up 21, which ranked 102nd in the nation. This past season, while Kiffin was in his first season at USC, the Vols yielded 16, which ranked 59th, tied with USC. In 2009, the year before Kiffin arrived at USC, the Trojans yielded 13, which ranked 42nd. Just saying.
• While a number of teams are consistently good in this area -- Ohio State, Florida and South Florida, to name a few -- only Iowa ranked in the top 10 the past three seasons.

But do limiting rushing explosion plays on defense correlate to winning? Short answer: Not as much as you'd think, at least this past season. Here's the top 10 in 2010 with the team's record in parentheses to the right.

1. Iowa... 5 (8-5)
2. Arizona State... 6 (6-6)
2. Boston College... 6 (7-6)
4. Purdue... 7 (4-8)
4. Iowa State... 7 (5-7)
4. SMU... 7 (7-7)
4. Florida... 7 (8-5)
4. Ohio State... 7 (12-1)
9. Temple... 8 (8-4)
9. Michigan State... 8 (11-2)
9. Buffalo... 8 (2-10)
9. Wyoming... 8 (3-9)

That's six teams (out of 12) at .500 or below, including two teams who combined for 19 losses. Just two teams -- Ohio State and Michigan State -- won double-digit games. Oklahoma went 12-2 despite giving up 25 rushing explosion plays, which ranked 109th in the nation. Heck, Kansas State finished 7-6 despite giving up 31 such plays, worst in the nation.

That said: Seven of the 12 teams that gave up 25 or more explosion plays finished with losing records, and four won three or fewer games.

Arizona State and San Diego State have agreed to play a home-and-home series in 2017 and 2018.

The games will be played on Sept. 9, 2017 at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe and Sept. 8, 2018 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.

"It is a pleasure to announce the renewal of a series that was so positive for both ASU and San Diego State University in the past," ASU athletic director Lisa Love said in a statement. "It is important for us to schedule home/home series with schools that are located in our geographical region. The city of San Diego is a destination that is very popular with our fans. San Diego State is a very nice addition to our future schedules, which already include Notre Dame, LSU, Wisconsin, Colorado, Missouri and Illinois among others."

The Sun Devils hold a 10-0-1 advantage in the series with San Diego State. ASU has won seven straight in the series, which dates back to 1934. The two schools tied, 27-27, in 1951 in San Diego.

This season, San Diego State went 8-4 and will play Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl at San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium on December 23.

While angry fans and critical sportswriters have had plenty to say about USC's execrable performance in a 36-7 loss at Oregon State last weekend, the identity of coach Lane Kiffin and the Trojans' worst critic might be surprising.

It's Lane Kiffin.

"We were just horrible," Kiffin said. "We played as bad as you can play. I saw some things I hadn't seen in 10 games. I don't know where they came from, so obviously I didn't do a very good job. I can't even fathom that we scored seven points. It's like a bad dream. We're trying to move on."

So how do you really feel, Lane?

He is correct, though. And they best wake up and move on. The Trojans, now 7-4, play their two archrivals over the next two weekends: Notre Dame and UCLA. Win those games and the season can be considered a moderate success, considering the circumstances of the arrival of a new coach and playing under the dark cloud of harsh NCAA sanctions.

Lose one or both? Not good, particularly when you consider the recent dominance -- the Trojans have won eight consecutive games against the Fighting Irish and have lost just once to the Bruins since 2001.

A week ago, USC looked like a good bet to sweep to a 10-win season. Now they look ripe for another upset defeat, particularly when you consider the dispiriting loss at Oregon State also included a high-ankle sprain to QB Matt Barkley, who is questionable for the Irish's visit. Backup Mitch Mustain didn't look good in relief, either, completing 8 of 17 passes for 60 yards.

Kiffin said that Barkley is undergoing two-a-day sessions of rehab, but that he expects Mustain -- who is more comfortable playing out of the shotgun -- to perform better with a week of preparation as the starter, if that proves necessary.

The Irish's season under first-year coach Brian Kelly hasn't exactly been placid. Off the field, there's been tragedy and controversy. On the field, Notre Dame was mostly written off following losses to Navy and Tulsa.

But then the Irish upset Utah and whipped Army by a combined count of 55-6. At 6-5, they are bowl-eligible, but if they beat the Trojans and get to 7-5, they could upgrade their bowl options, including taking the Big East's slot in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando.

Orlando sounds good when you've been in South Bend during a difficult fall.

USC, of course, can't play in a bowl game. It's only motivations are pride and retaining the Jeweled Shillelagh.

For much of the year, pride was enough. But that didn't seem present during the listless effort at Oregon State. Perhaps the notion of becoming the first team to beat Notre Dame nine consecutive times will reignite motivation among the Trojans.

His physiognomy would have sufficiently indicated that he was a shrewd and capable fellow, and in truth he had often sat up all night over a bristling bundle of accounts, and heard the cock crow without a yawn. But Raphael and Titian and Rubens were a new kind of arithmetic, and they inspired our friend, for the first time in his life, with a vague self-mistrust.

• Arizona and Nebraska are unfamiliar foes, but the coaching staffs know each other well. For Arizona fans, there should be some déjà vu.
• Arizona State is hunting for JC offensive linemen, and it got one here.
• Ray Ratto asks the existential question: Just who is California and who will show up in the Poinsettia Bowl against a tough Utah squad? Fact is Cal got everything it could -- in a bad way -- out of its four defeats by a combined count of 145-30.
• Ohio State has a long time to prepare for Oregon's spread-option attack.
• Sure, it's not the Rose Bowl, but Oregon State's Las Vegas Bowl matchup with BYU is intriguing on many levels.
• Stanford's Toby Gerhart will have his hands full with the Oklahoma defense, particularly if quarterback Andrew Luck can't play.
• UCLA is a big fan of Navy -- the Midshipmen need to beat rival Army for the Bruins to get a berth in the EagleBank Bowl on Dec. 29. The Bruins can practice while they await their fate, but quarterback Kevin Prince remains questionable.
• More on the strange Charlie Weis-Pete Carroll Internet accusation saga. Will USC find redemption in Northern California?
• Some snarky USC fans and reporters thought the Trojans would be better off without Nick Holt. So, at the end of the season, which team is playing better defense: USC or Washington? Jim Moore doesn't think Jake Locker will return for his senior season.
• This Washington State quarterback recruit looks good.
• Jon Wilner looks at the winners and losers of the bowl season before it begins -- Jon left one out: The collective "whew" that went out from BCS conference teams when Boise State and TCU were matched in the Fiesta Bowl.

UCLA will play Temple in the EagleBank Bowl on Dec. 29 in Washington, D.C.’s RFK Stadium on ESPN (4:30 p.m. ET).

That is unless Army beats Navy on Saturday. In that case, Army replaces UCLA (6-6) and the Bruins will stay home for the bowl season.

Temple (9-3) received an at-large invitation to the bowl and will be playing in its first bowl game in 30 years. The Owls have experienced a football resurgence under fourth-year head coach Al Golden, tying for first-place in the Mid-American Conference.

With Notre Dame's decision to not play in a bowl game, UCLA's chances of landing an at-large bowl berth are much better, though the Bruins may have to wait until Dec. 12 to get an invitation if they wants to stay in the region and play in the Humanitarian Bowl.

The Boise-based bowl wants UCLA, Humanitarian Bowl executive director Kevin McDonald told the Idaho Statesman this week.

UCLA is 6-6. All teams with winning records must be picked for at-large berths before bowls can consider .500 teams. Without 6-6 Notre Dame in the running, it appears the Bruins would be the first choice among 6-6 teams.

Two potential snags: Wisconsin must beat Hawaii today and Navy must beat Army on on Dec. 12.

UCLA is the Pac-10's seventh bowl-eligible team, but the conference only has six bowl contracts.

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

Yes, he's a big chunk of meat, this Toby Gerhart -- 235 pounds of it to be exact. When he runs -- over and over, carry after carry, trample, trample, smash, smash -- you can sense the collective shoulders start to droop on the opposing defense. "This," those defenders seem to say, "isn't as much fun as my coach told me it would be."

	Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
	Stanford running back Toby Gerhart ranks second in the nation in rushing yards per game.

But he's not Superman. He's not made of steel. After he ran for a Stanford school record 223 yards in a 51-42 win over then-No. 8 Oregon, his arms were covered in a road map of red streaks and scratches of varying depths. Gerhart absently pawed at the wounds as he talked. Maybe he was imagining the cooling relief of some cocoa butter or aloe vera? Or maybe he was thinking, "How futile these scratching and clawing defenders are! Now, where is my mutton and mead?"

"We take pride in being physical," Gerhart said. "That's our M.O."

Gerhart ranks second in the nation with 135.2 yards rushing per game. He's eclipsed 200 yards twice and he's been held under under 100 twice -- 82- and 96-yard afternoons. He's scored 16 touchdowns; only Navy's Ricky Dobbs has more. That's twice as many touchdowns as Alabama's Mark Ingram, the top running back on most Heisman Trophy lists.

"Toby's been our shining star all year," Cardinal coach Jim Harbaugh said. "He's a man. He's a true warrior."

So let's just run against conventional thinking for a moment and ask two questions. 1. Are rushing yards and touchdowns important for a running back? 2. If so, why isn't Gerhart on every Heisman Trophy list?

"Toby Gerhart proved he's one of the top running backs in the country," Oregon coach Chip Kelly said.

Kelly volunteered that after reporters asked him if Stanford, which gained 505 yards against a previously stout Oregon defense, had provided a blueprint that other teams could copy to beat the Ducks. He scoffed at the question.

"If they can get Toby Gerhart and Andrew Luck to transfer to their school, maybe they will," he said.

Gerhart, who's also a major league baseball prospect, was a good back last year. He rushed for 1,136 yards and 15 touchdowns. But he was a one-man show. The Cardinal ranked ninth in the Pac-10 in passing yards and were 91st in the nation in passing efficiency.

But redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck has given the Cardinal a passing attack, which means defenses can't gang up on Gerhart.

Defenses would much prefer to gang up on Gerhart.

"Usually the first guy doesn't take him down," Kelly said. "You've got to get more than one guy to him."

Gerhart will get his Heisman Trophy stage Saturday at USC. The Cardinal are back in the national rankings. They already are bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. Beating the Trojans could thrust the Cardinal into even the Rose Bowl hunt.

And if Gerhart hangs up big numbers on a USC defense that is still trying to regain its footing?

How could this 235-pound side of beef not become a leading Heisman Trophy candidate?

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

What did we learn from Week 10 of Pac-10 action?

1. The Pac-10 is out of the nation title hunt (again): With Oregon's defeat at Stanford, every Pac-10 team now has at least two losses. That's not going to get a team to the late game in Pasadena. Athletic directors and conference administrators might want to think about two things: 1. Less ambitious nonconference scheduling; 2. End the nine-game, round-robin conference schedule. The way to remain unbeaten -- or to maximize win potential in the conference, top to bottom -- is to play schedules like most of the teams that are presently unbeaten play. On the positive side, the Oregon vs. Boise State rankings debate is likely solved. At least in terms of its meaning within the BCS picture.

2. Stanford has turned the corner under Jim Harbaugh: Stanford improved to 6-3 with the win over Oregon, which made the Cardinal bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. But Harbaugh wasn't celebrating. He still thinks his team can win the Pac-10 title. And if it manages to win at USC on Saturday, who knows? But his program is clearly on the uptick. Did we mention that his outstanding quarterback Andrew Luck is a redshirt freshman? Think that may help the Cardinal recruit some skill on offense?

3. Oregon State is surging (again): The sun sets and then it rises. Oregon State starts slowly and then it makes a run. The Beavers have won four of five since a 2-2 start, the lone loss a nail biter at USC. The previous three seasons, they started 2-3 but ended up with bowl wins and final national rankings. Déjà vu anyone? Know what's the most exciting thing about the slow-start, fast-finish dynamic for me? I get to ask Mike Riley about it next preseason. And he'll start his answer with this: "That's a good question." I love how he does that. (It's not a good question, but Riley isn't the sort to tell reporters that).

4. USC hasn't solved its issues, but it still may rise again for No. 8: Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley had his worst game at Arizona State. The defense gave up yards to a Sun Devils offense that has struggled much of the season. Injuries have piled up. And yet, with Oregon's loss at Stanford, the Trojans join a gaggle of teams that could end up atop the conference. If they win out, chances are reasonable that they will at least earn a share of the conference title. And who knows how a tiebreaker might play out? Rematch with Ohio State in the RoZZZZZZZe Bowl?

5. A Pac-10 running back should be a top-five Heisman Trophy candidate: Whether you're a Jacquizz Rodgers guy or a Toby Gerhart adherent, it's a shame that neither is getting as much Heisman hype as less-deserving candidates. The key number: Both have accounted for 16 touchdowns this season. How many running backs who don't play for Navy have done that?

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

The Sporting News asked 43 NFL players which college coach they’d most like to play for -- other than the one they did.

USC's Pete Carroll was No. 1 with 12 votes. Three other Pac-10 coaches got one vote.

Here are the results, provided by the magazine.

• ­ 12 votes: Pete Carroll (USC)
• ­ 8 votes: Urban Meyer (Florida)
• ­3 votes: Mike Leach (Texas Tech), Randy Shannon (Miami)
• ­ 2 votes: Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech), Lane Kiffin (Tennessee), Joe Paterno (Penn State), Nick Saban (Alabama), Steve Spurrier (South Carolina)
• ­ 1 vote: Bobby Bowden (Florida State), Dennis Erickson (Arizona State), Chip Kelly (Oregon), Ken Niumatalolo (Navy), Bob Stoops (Oklahoma), Jeff Tedford (California), Ron Zook (Illinois)

Here's what the players said about Carroll, according to the magazine:

Broncos CB Champ Bailey: “I don’t like coaches that are uptight all the time.”

Vikings DE Jared Allen: “I keep it on the West Coast because I’m a West Coast-type of guy. That’d be pretty cool. He seems like he has fun. It seems like he really enjoys coaching, and his players enjoy playing for him, with practical jokes and stuff like that. It seems like our personalities would mesh well together.”

Bills FS Donte Whitner: “It seems like the guys that come under him are ready to play in the National Football League. He runs everything. He gives his guys a lot of freedom, just as pro coaches do, so when you make that transition to the next level you are prepared and you know what to do with the free time that you have. [Ohio State’s Jim] Tressel is the same way.”