ESPN College Football

The judge smiled. Men are born for games. Nothing else. Every child knows that play is nobler than work. He knows too that the worth or merit of a game is not inherent in the game itself but rather in the value of that which is put at hazard.

• Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez has confidence in QB Matt Scott.
• Checking in with Arizona State defensive coordinator Paul Randolph.
• These former California players have gone radical.
• The Colorado QB competition is far from over. And competitive runs deep with the Embrees.
• Oregon's Rose Bowl win wasn't cheap. Some notes and video of LaMichael James getting drafted -- Ducks fans should avert their eyes at the 41-second mark.
• Oregon State coach Mike Riley talks about his QB and offensive line, and he feels better about one than the other.
• Athlon takes a look at Stanford.
• Here's a vote for Brett Hundley to be UCLA's QB.
• Who will USC's No. 3 RB be? For some reason, this issue doesn't seem as worrisome as depth at DT.
• This ranking is high on Utah to perhaps upset USC in the South Division.
• Some Washington notes based on Steve Sarkisian's time on the Pac-12 spring coaches teleconference.
• The dynamic in Washington State's radio booth will be interesting. Cougars coach Mike Leach talks about ... lots of things.
• Pac-12 coaches know they aren't in control of the playoff discussion.

Oregon released Friday to the media a "proposed findings of violations" from the NCAA, which says the Ducks' football program broke NCAA rules through its use of three recruiting scouting services and by exceeding the permissible number of coaches participating in recruiting at any one time.

Further, the NCAA is proposing that Oregon agree that from 2008 through 2011 "the athletic department failed to establish policies and procedures to monitor the football program's use of recruiting or scouting services."

This is not a formal Notice of Allegations from the NCAA -- the investigation remains ongoing for both Oregon and the NCAA -- and four of the document's seven sections are redacted. So drawing specific conclusions as to what this means for Oregon's football program is impossible.

You can read the document here (what's not redacted by Oregon). And here is a note to Oregon fans from athletic director Rob Mullens on the document's release. Here's a story from the Eugene Register-Guard. And one from The Oregonian, which noted: "Until [the] internal inquiry concludes, UO general counsel Randy Geller said, 'the university is not necessarily agreeing with the findings.'"

What does this mean?

Here's an educated guess: Oregon will not get a wrist slap from the NCAA. And it won't get horribly bombed.

Yeah, I know, thanks a lot.

Oregon fans looking for good news should note that a "failure to monitor" charge, while it can carry burdensome sanctions, is not the dreaded "lack of institutional control."

Still, predictions at this point as to what the NCAA eventually will do remain pure guesswork. For one, there's a lot of stuff Oregon won't let us see. For another, as pointed out by CBS Sports' astute Bryan Fischer in a Tweet, "Reading Oregon/NCAA docs, never been a major infractions case involving 13.14.3 (recruiting/scouting services). So definitely new ground."

This is unexplored territory for an organization that often seems to make completely random, arbitrary rulings. Predict outcomes at your peril.

Many of the NCAA's specific allegations focus on the Ducks getting "oral reports" from scouting services. That's a no-no.

What about Willie Lyles? Nothing earth-shattering. From the document: "In 2010, the football program paid $25,000 for a subscription to Complete Scouting Services (CSS) and received oral reports from CSS representative Lyles. Additionally, the football program failed to gather recruiting or scouting information from CSS at least four times per calendar year, as required by NCAA recruiting or scouting legislation."

As for the failure to monitor:

Regarding the recruiting or scouting services, the athletic department failed to establish policies and procedures to monitor the football program's use of recruiting or scouting services. Additionally, athletics administrators with responsibilities in the football program failed to monitor the information provided by recruiting or scouting services to ensure compliance with recruiting or scouting service legislation. This collective failure partly resulted in the violations outlined in Finding 2.

Recall how all of us media sorts have kept bringing up the loopholes and gray areas that are in play here? It's meaningful, again, that NCAA investigators/infractions folks have little experience with cases like this. Alleged "street agents" in football, while long an issue in basketball, are a mostly new thing. And a new area of emphasis for the NCAA.

My general impression here is that Oregon, from the beginning, has tried to work with the NCAA instead of quibble over details. It lawyered up with attorney Michael Glazier, a partner in the firm Bond, Schoeneck & King, the go-to guys for NCAA investigations, in order to best present its position, yes, but also to make sure it didn't violate the NCAA's sense of etiquette in these matters. While it's often incorrectly stated or written that USC didn't cooperate with the NCAA during the Reggie Bush case, there's no question that USC aggressively fought the allegations against it. It appears that Oregon isn't doing that, that it's trying to reach accord with the NCAA.

George Schroeder of the Register-Guard speculated on Twitter -- insightfully, I think -- that Oregon might hope for a "summary disposition" that would allow it to avoid an infractions committee hearing altogether. A plea bargain, so to speak.

That said, don't expect this case to be quickly wrapped up in a few weeks. The wheels of NCAA justice almost always move slowly, and, again, the Notice of Allegations has yet to arrive.

But the Oregon case is moving forward, providing grounds for hope to parties on both sides of the aisle.

Those who want Oregon to get hit hard -- despite no "lack of institutional control" -- probably feel like there's a chance that still happens. And Ducks fans can reasonably cross their fingers that eventual sanctions won't be severe enough to put an ax wound in the middle of a budding Pac-12 superpower.

Happy Friday.

Anyone miss me? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

I appreciate the notes of support in the mailbag. Blog Baby 2 and Blog Mother 1 are doing well. Blog 3-Year-Old and Blog Baby 2 have already engaged in a heated "Pac-12!" versus "SEC!" debate, with one of them punctuating his point with a "Roll Tide!" I blame his Alabama-born mother for that.

But enough about me. What about the mail?

Oh, and you can follow me on Twitter here, where I figure to be far more active next week.

To the notes!

Tyler from Minnesota writes: What elite defenses did Luck ever play against? I'm probably the only non believer when it comes the Luck hype. The % of QB's the NFL misses on is staggering. Why believe the talking heads?

Ted Miller: Luck played against -- and mostly lit up -- nine top-50 defenses over the past two seasons. He's played against many very good defenses and a lots of NFL draft choices -- past, present and future. Further, the reason many of the defenses he's played against don't rate as "elite" with some folks is because those defenses faced a horribly unfair burden.

They played against Luck and other Pac-12 offenses.

Why the hype for Luck? Well, he's got a good arm. He's extremely athletic at 6-foot-4, 237 pounds. He's accurate. He's bright. He's a humble team guy but is also highly competitive. He's a good leader. He's had no off-field issues. And no QB since Peyton Manning has entered the NFL draft with as high a football IQ.

In fact, if you wanted to make a good comparison, I'd call Luck pretty much Peyton Manning, only with much better mobility.

Of course, there are no guarantees with QBs. For one, being the No. 1 overall draft pick typically means you're going to be immediately starting for a terrible team.

But if I were a betting man, I'd set the over-under on his Pro Bowl selections at 10.

Dan from Irvine, Calif., writes: Do you think Rich Rod can actually deliver what has eluded my Wildcats ever since they entered the Pac back in 1978; a Pac-12 championship? Also, will my kitties make it to a bowl game with Mr. Matt Scott at the helm next year? My heart tells me "yes" for both but my head says probably not.

Ted Miller: Rich Rodriguez has been successful everywhere he has coached. He was a dynamic offensive innovator at Glenville State, Tulane and Clemson. He led West Virginia to a 60-26 record in seven years, including a pair of BCS bowls.

Michigan? Well, if you read the book, "Three and Out," by John Bacon -- and I'd recommend it -- you learn that Rodriguez was pretty much doomed from the start. He was left with a lousy team, a dysfunctional athletic department and a bitter former coach in Lloyd Carr, who was anything but supportive of Rodriguez, despite playing a key role in his getting the job instead of LSU's Les Miles. Further, Bacon's book does a convincing job of deconstructing Rodriguez's treatment by the Detroit media and mostly discredits the news story that provoked the NCAA investigation into practice time rules violations.

And Rodriguez's players looked pretty good this past season, going 11-2 and winning the Sugar Bowl.

So, yes, based on his pedigree, I think Rodriguez can deliver a first Rose Bowl to Arizona.

As for this year, the pieces seem to be in place for a fairly strong turnaround, though one of Rodriguez's refrains in "Three and Out" is how it takes a few years of teaching and recruiting for his systems to take hold. If Scott gets hurt, the Wildcats complete void behind him at QB will be a huge issue, so that fact likely will limit how much Scott will be asked to run the football in Rodriguez's spread-option.

So, sticking with a theme of over-under, I'd rate Arizona's at six wins in 2012.

Greg from Philo, Calif., writes: Lane Kiffin's picks for db, lb and wr coaches were totally out of the box. Genius or incompetence?

Ted Miller: I don't call coaches geniuses. Beethoven was a genius. Einstein was a genius. Louis C.K. is a genius. But I like these hires.

Marvin Sanders, who will coach the secondary, has a strong reputation, though his sudden departure from Nebraska a year ago was a bit strange -- the official explanation was "for personal and family reasons."

By the way, this came in the mailbag from Pete from Omaha:

As a Nebraska fan, USC fans should be absolutely thrilled about the Marvin Sanders hire. He coached arguably the best secondary in the nation two years in a row in 2009 and 2010 and in that time frame produced four NFL draft picks, including first rounder Prince Amukamara. Not to mention, he is also the guy who brought Alfonso Dennard to Nebraska and coached him up, another future first or second rounder. His secondaries embarrassed QB's like Colt McCoy, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert (ALL were NFL starters this year). Gice credit to Bo and Carl for those defenses too, but Marvin is arguably the best secondary coach in college football. USC fans should be ecstatic. Nobody will be able to throw on USC once Marvin gets it going.

The one you might consider "outside the box" is Scottie Hazelton, who was hired a LBs coach after building a defensive power at North Dakota State, which won the FCS national championship this year. To that I say: "Chip Kelly." And then there should be silence (Kelly was New Hampshire's offensive coordinator before taking over the Oregon offense in 2007). This, in fact, feels like an inspired hire by Kiffin, one in which he clearly did a bit of homework.

Consider this from the FCS title game story on the Bison whipping top-seeded Sam Houston, 17-6:

Sam Houston (14-1) had its lowest-scoring game of the season, 33 points below its FCS-best average, and was denied an undefeated season and its first Football Championship Subdivision title. The Bearkats had only 210 total yards.

That should raise your eyebrows.

As for Martin, he talked to Kelly about a job at Oregon in 2009. Kelly and I actually chatted about Martin because I used to cover him back when he was the quarterback of Williamson High School in Mobile, Ala. He led Tennessee to the 1998 national championship the year after Peyton Manning left for the NFL. My sense is he's an up-and-coming coach with good recruiting skills, one who knows that coaching or playing under the warm and salubrious glow of the Pac-12 blog is a feeling like no other.

Dan from San Francisco writes: I'll risk a [Willie] Lyles question given that it's a downtime in the football calendar. In my understanding, the Lyles scandal has the potential to hurt Oregon the most in recruiting, both in terms of lost scholarships and in scaring players away. But given that USC has managed to do great in recruiting and on the field despite looming and already in effect sanctions, to what extent can Oregon coaches use USC as a blueprint to follow and as an example to show recruits should Oregon be hit by sanctions? In other words, to what extent could Chip Kelly tell recruits that sanctions aren't such a big deal, because "look at USC, they got hit and they're doing fine"? I realize that USC has much more going for it in recruiting than Oregon does, but I'm guessing that might be offset somewhat by more lenient sanctions for Oregon.

Ted Miller: I continue to believe that Oregon won't face severe sanctions for Le Affair de Willie Lyles. Oregon ranked 18th in the nation in recruiting this year, so it doesn't seem like recruits are terribly worried, either.

It's never good to lose scholarships as it reduces a program's margin for error in recruiting. Based on simple math, it's easier to be good with 85 scholarship players than with 75 scholarship players. But the Ducks aren't likely to lose 30 scholarships -- 10 out of three recruiting classes -- like USC.

Whatever the endgame is with Oregon and the NCAA on this, I don't anticipate the Ducks getting smacked in a way that substantially hurts their standing in the Pac-12 pecking order.

But the USC comparison doesn't work here for me. For one, this was USC's first of three recruiting classes under scholarship limitations, so the impact of those won't really hit until a year or two from now. We don't know how the Trojans will weather the restrictions, even if it does seem that Lane Kiffin has a vision of how to do it with minimal damage.

Further, as you note Dan, Oregon doesn't work from the same recruiting point A, both in terms of geography and tradition. So if Oregon did get hit hard -- even if it were just half as hard as what USC is presently dealing with -- the damage likely would be worse. A star player in recruiting-rich Southern California might go to USC just so his parents can see him play, and that would outweigh, say, a bowl ban. There are very few A-list recruits around Eugene, and said star from Southern California is less likely to head North to Oregon -- the rain! the chill! -- if the Ducks have NCAA issues.

Even though he'd still experience the warm and salubrious glow of the Pac-12 blog.

LOS ANGELES -- On Saturday morning in a hotel ballroom, Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema and Oregon coach Chip Kelly will stand together and pose for pictures with the Rose Bowl trophy. It's the kind of staged, sometimes forced, photo op that occurs before every big game.

Stare at this particular picture a bit longer, though. Appreciate the similar traits each man brought to this moment, even though they are in many ways unique. Try to imagine how they'll look in the same pose when they are older. Because this image is likely to be repeated in the future.

Here is Oregon making its second Rose Bowl appearance in three years, and here is Wisconsin back in Pasadena for the second consecutive season. Kelly and Bielema are quickly becoming the faces of the most tradition-laden bowl game, even if they are not exactly cut from a traditional cloth.

One (Kelly) played and coached for more than a decade at the relative outpost of New Hampshire before suddenly emerging as the titan of West Coast football. The other (Bielema) is thoroughly Midwestern -- born in Illinois, played linebacker at Iowa, defensive assistant for the Hawkeyes and Kansas State -- yet knows how to merge new-school fun with old-school, power football.

Kelly is hailed as a genius, the offensive innovator whose forward-thinking, high-speed spread attack plays perfectly to the video-game generation. Bielema's scheme is more brute than scoot but is almost equally as effective. Kelly's Ducks have averaged 43.1 points per game since he became head coach in 2009. In that same time frame, Bielema's Badgers have averaged 39.2.

"What Bret's done with that program, as a coach from the outside you really kind of admire it," Kelly said. "There's a consistency to it. He has a style of offense he plays and a style of defense he plays, and they stick to that. And they're really, really good at it."

Both coaches have achieved a lot at a young age. Kelly is 48, while Bielema turns 42 on Jan. 13.

"I think with his age being a little bit closer to ours, it makes him a lot easier to relate to," Wisconsin linebacker Kevin Claxton said of Bielema. "He knows what we're thinking and going through."

Both men can be described as players' coaches. Kelly handled the very difficult LeGarrette Blount punching controversy in his very first game as head coach with a solid measure of both discipline and compassion for his player. Bielema pumps up rap music at practice and gives his players the freedom to be themselves. Kelly's players buy into his cult of personality. Bielema is more like your favorite uncle.

"He's so outgoing," said quarterback Russell Wilson, whom Bielema recruited as a transfer from NC State over the summer. "He tried to get to know me quickly, like he was my best friend, to be honest with you. But at the same time, he makes you work. He wants to see the best out of you and all his players."

Both men are single in a profession in which being seen as a family man is a good career choice. Bielema is engaged and plans to wed next spring, while Kelly dislikes discussing his private life.

Kelly and Bielema are liked but probably not loved by all their peers. They'll ruffle feathers on occasion with the way their teams continue to pile on the points during blowouts. If you're an opposing team's fan, you'd probably describe them as arrogant. You'd also secretly wish they were your team's coach.

The only real knock on either is a perceived failure to win games. Which is mostly ludicrous, considering that Bielema is 60-18 in six seasons and Kelly is 33-6 in three years at their respective schools. One guy is going to win his first BCS game on Monday night, while the other will have to fight off the "can't win the big one" charge a little harder.

Neither is blessed with an abundance of in-state talent from which to build his program. But Kelly has Phil Knight, those wild uniforms and that offense to attract skill players from around the country. Bielema likes to say his program isn't sexy, but there is no greater destination for an offensive lineman or a running back who wants to earn national honors and go to the NFL. The success of Wilson at quarterback has signaled to other skill players that you can do more at Wisconsin than just grind it out.

Bielema and Kelly are arguably the most successful examples ever of the head-coach-in-waiting practice. That idea is falling out of vogue now, but every school would do it if the transition went as well as it looked in Madison and Eugene. Bielema inherited a Badgers team that won 10 games in Barry Alvarez's final year; Kelly took over after Mike Bellotti won 10 games his last season.

There are subtle differences between the two, of course. Kelly has a heavy hand in play calling on offense, while Bielema delegates more to his assistants (which has helped two coordinators land head-coaching jobs in the past two seasons).

"One of the things I made as a decision early on as a head coach, I wasn't going to be involved in play calling on offense or defense," Bielema said. "I just call the good plays. ... I let guys coordinate and run it, but I'll always have constant feedback on things I like, dislike, and the way I see things unfold during practice."

Bielema is as accessible as any coach at a major program. He's unafraid to open his doors to the media, like when he allowed ESPN to follow Wilson around for a special last summer. Kelly is a little more roped-off, particularly to local reporters. But when he talks, he often gives thought-provoking and colorful answers.

Kelly's reputation has taken a hit with the ongoing NCAA investigation involving recruiting service owner Willie Lyles. Bielema has steered clear of any NCAA issues thus far.

Kelly told reporters on Friday that Bielema couldn't be considered an "up-and-coming" star head coach, because six years is a long time to be in the same job these days. That's true. But these two seem like prime candidates to build a lasting legacy where they are. Bielema enjoys a close relationship with Alvarez, now the Wisconsin athletic director, and has shown no inclination toward leaving Madison. Kelly insisted on placing a $4 million buyout in his contract to ward off potential suitors.

So take a look at the trophy photo again. Or don't. You'll probably have a chance to see it staged again soon.

Let's play a quick game of fill in the blank: Oregon fans are ... What comes to mind? Keep it clean, folks. Behave!

Yes, it is fair to say that Oregon fans have eagerly, zealously and vociferously embraced the recent success of their team. The seed that was planted when Kenny Wheaton went the other way against Washington in 1994 is now a full-grown oak, and Oregon fans enjoy pointing out that their oak is more stately and beautiful than yours.

Eleven other Pac-12 teams want Oregon to go away. We have bad news for those 11. Not happening.

With the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2 against Wisconsin, the Ducks are playing in their third consecutive BCS bowl game. No other team in the country has played in three consecutive BCS bowl games. But this rise to the nation's elite started before this run of conference success. Oregon's first taste of national title contention was in 2000 and 2001. After a middling, post-Joey Harrington, pre-Chip Kelly interim, it was ranked No. 2 and a national title contender in 2007 before quarterback Dennis Dixon blew out his knee. Oregon finished the 2008 season ranked 10th. It finished 11th in 2009 after losing the Rose Bowl to Ohio State. It finished third in 2010 after losing to Auburn in the national title game.

While opposing fans can still pull out the "They haven't won a BCS bowl game under Kelly" card, that tweak comes from beneath the Ducks in the Pac-12 pecking order, so as ripostes go, it's rather pyrrhic.

And the Ducks, even if they lose to Wisconsin, will be a preseason top-10 team in 2012, probably top-five if they win the Granddaddy. There certainly is a lot to like about the depth chart.

Not including junior running back LaMichael James, who is likely off to the NFL, the Ducks should welcome back six starters on offense, six on defense and both specialists in 2012. But that doesn't tell the entire story.

For one, the Ducks will have a two-year starter returning at quarterback in Darron Thomas. While Thomas has had runs of inconsistent accuracy, there are two bottom lines: He's 22-3 as a starter and has thrown 63 touchdown passes with just 16 interceptions.

But what's notable about the Ducks' depth chart is not just returning starters.

Oregon only lists a two-deep. That means 44 players on offense and defense. Of the 22 names on offense, just four are departing seniors, not including James. Of the 22 names on defense, just six are seniors.

And most of the players who are leaving -- or are expected to leave, as in James' case -- are presently backed up by intriguing young talents who already have significant game experience. James leaving? Well, you all know who Kenjon Barner is. Tight end David Paulson? Freshman Colt Lyerla caught five touchdown passes this season. Lose two offensive linemen? Junior Ryan Clanton and freshman Jake Fisher have seen plenty of action. Lose two linebackers? Kiko Alonso has started five games and Boseko Lokombo has played a lot. Cornerback Anthony Gildon out the door? Redshirt freshman Troy Hill has started five games while Gildon has been hurt (and is doubtful for the Rose Bowl).

Further, the Ducks have some redshirt freshmen on both sides of the ball -- particularly at linebacker and receiver -- who figure to make an impact next year. Receivers Devon Blackmon, Tacoi Sumler and B.J. Kelley were highly touted 2011 signees, who could bolster the Ducks passing game.

If you were connecting the dots, you'd actually project the Ducks to be better in 2012 than their 2011, 11-2, Pac-12 champion selves.

And, even with the loss of Thomas after next season, the Ducks appear to set up nicely for 2013. And beyond.

I know. I know. Fans of those 11 other Pac-12 teams are jumping up and down and waving their arms, bellowing, "What about Willie Lyles and the NCAA?"

True, major NCAA sanctions would seem the mostly likely way the Ducks get knocked from their ascent to the nation's elite. And it could happen. You never know with the NCAA.

But the more I talk to people who make educated guesses on NCAA investigations, not to mention a few who have specific knowledge of the NCAA's inquiry into the Ducks, the more I'm leaning toward the position that the NCAA will not pound Oregon. I suspect sanctions will fall short of what Ohio State recently received.

Of course, I thought USC would receive less severe penalties than Alabama received in 2002, so I've also learned to not expect the NCAA to be logical and fair.

The point is this: If you are wondering what Oregon is likely to be doing in, say, 2014, my projection is they still will be annoying 11 other teams.

The Ducks aren't going to go away.

We are about to type that Oregon State coach Mike Riley is on the hot seat. It feels strange, but it is true. And that tells you a lot about being a college coach in an automatic qualifying conference.

Life is good, until it isn't. You make millions, but the put-up or get-out window has been reduced from five to three-to-four years. You win, win, win, win, lose, lose, and you're on the hot seat. Way it goes.

So where do the Pac-12 coaches stand as we head into the bowl season?

Glad you asked (And, obviously, winning or losing a bowl game would affect these rankings).

We're going from most secure to least, and let's start with the three new guys (Arizona State isn't in this because it doesn't have a coach yet).

New hires

1. Mike Leach, Washington State: There seem to be exactly zero people who think Leach is a bad hire. The reaction in Pullman could be described as euphoric, but that sells it short. Still, there is pressure that comes with euphoria -- see that old "too high or too low" syndrome. Folks expect him to work miracles. To me, 6-6 or 7-5 would be a successful 2012 season. Get the feeling some Cougs expect to immediately take down Oregon.

2. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: Folks in Tucson are reasonably juiced. Rich Rod is a heck of an offensive coach, and he's highly motivated to make sure folks see his ill-fated tenure at Michigan as an aberration. A lot of things are in place for Rodriguez to get the Wildcats back to a bowl game in year one. But, again, high expectations mean a 7-5 record -- a three-game turnaround -- might be met with a, "Meh. Stoops did that."

3. Jim Mora, UCLA: Mora's hiring hasn't been celebrated. In fact, it's been met with negative reaction among Bruins fans as well as the national media. Much of that reflects a lack of confidence in athletic director Dan Guerrero, but the negativity certainly won't help get the football program back on its feet. For Mora, he needs to understand the environment, remain pleasant and work his butt off to change it.

Returning coaches

1. Chip Kelly, Oregon: Kelly has won three consecutive conference titles and played for a national title. If he wins the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin, he'll officially become the King of Eugene. The NCAA and Willie Lyles? We shall see, but we leave you with our word of the day: Teflon.

2. Kyle Whittingham, Utah: Seven years, seven winning records. His Utes nearly won that Pac-12 South Division without their starting QB. Sure, there jury is still out on whether the Utes can regularly win nine or 10 games in the Pac-12. But this jury looks favorably on it happening as long as Whittingham is around.

3. David Shaw, Stanford: You can write off an 11-1 year one as being brought to him by Lucky No. 12, but there was plenty of pressure on Shaw to win this year and he delivered. It seems almost certain the program will need to regroup next fall, and the measure will become truer thereafter. But Shaw is a Stanford man who is well-liked, and that will buy him more time than someone who is neither.

4. Lane Kiffin, USC: A 10-2 finish couldn't have come at a better time. It proved Kiffin can coach, and it seems there is a solid amount of sober realism around the program about what losing 30 scholarships over the next three seasons is going to mean. There will be some patience -- not a lot but some -- as sanctions tighten the screws. Further, Kiffin can help himself by continuing to be his new, mature and often surprisingly gracious self.

5. Steve Sarkisian, Washington: The Huskies took a step forward in 2011, as they did Sarkisian's first two seasons. Not a huge step but a notable one. Still, Huskies fans are eager to get back into the top-25 and the Pac-12 race. And they don't like seeing Oregon on top. Nine or 10 wins in 2012 will be the best way to keep the natives from showing any signs of restlessness.

6. Jeff Tedford, California: Tedford is actually in far better position now than he was on Oct. 29 after a bad loss to UCLA. And if the Bears beat Texas in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, there will be considerable offseason momentum. Cal looks like a potential factor in the 2012 North Division race, and playing in a renovated Memorial Stadium also will juice the fans. That said: A losing season -- or perhaps even a 6-6 one -- next fall would make his seat toasty.

7. Jon Embree, Colorado: A 3-10 finish doesn't make anyone happy, but it's best to post a 3-10 finish for your first season as a head coach. The reason Embree isn't on the bottom here is because it's unlikely, barring a complete collapse, that a bad 2012 season will get him fired. For one, the Buffs look to be mired in a rebuilding mode. It's possible next year's team will be worse than this year's, seeing they lose many of their best players.

8. Mike Riley, Oregon State: After the 2009 season, Riley was at or at least near the top of this list. But consecutive losing seasons, including a 3-9 faceplant this fall, have some Beavers fans believing they should and can do better. Oregon State has some young talent, and a return to a bowl game seems like a perfectly reasonable expectation in 2012. Another losing season, however, could put Riley's once-secure job status in jeopardy.

OREGON DUCKS

Record: 11-2, 8-1 Pac-12

A third consecutive conference title has Oregon flying higher than it's ever been as a program, and the Ducks show no signs of slowing down. Of course, to get their proper respect they need to avoid going 0-3 in BCS bowl games under coach Chip Kelly when they face Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.

The Ducks fell 40-27 in the much-hyped opener against LSU, with turnovers and penalties being as much a problem as an outstanding Tigers defense. After that loss, the Ducks cruised fairly easily to their next marquee showdown: at Stanford on Nov. 12. And when the Ducks whipped the Cardinal 53-30, they were back in the national title hunt. At least for a week, as USC ended the Ducks' 21-game home winning streak the next weekend, 38-35, when the Ducks missed a last-second field goal to force overtime.

Oregon bounced back to trounce rival Oregon State and then UCLA in the first Pac-12 championship game.

Offensive MVP: LaMichael James became the first back in conference history to rush for more than 1,500 yards three consecutive seasons, including 1,646 yards this year. He also scored 17 touchdowns and caught 17 passes for 210 yards and another touchdown.

Defensive MVP: Defensive end Dion Jordan earned first-team All-Pac-12 honors after leading the Ducks' defense with 13 tackles for a loss and 7.5 sacks. The junior also had 40 total tackles and a forced fumble.

Turning point: It's hard to choose just one. The sloppy third quarter against LSU was when the Ducks fell out of the early national-title picture. The Stanford game, however, seems like a bigger one. While that dominant victory only briefly put the Ducks back into the national hunt, it more importantly gave the Ducks a cushion in the North Division race. Even the loss to USC, which Stanford beat, didn't ruin the Ducks' drive to the conference crown.

What's next: A Rose Bowl the Ducks need to win and another offseason when Oregon will be the consensus pick to the win the Pac-12 the following year. Even without James, a junior who is almost certain to declare for the NFL draft, the offense has plenty of weapons coming back. There's also a solid core of talent back on defense. Further, there doesn't seem to be an elite team like Stanford in the North to challenge the Ducks. Of course, the Ducks still haven't learned their NCAA fate from the Willie Lyles investigation, though there seems to be optimism around the program that sanctions won't be severe.

If reading a series of factoids about how great Oregon is annoys you, might we suggest you skip over the bullet points that follow?

• If Oregon beats UCLA on Friday, it will win its third consecutive Pac-10/12 championship. USC (2004-06) is the only Pac-12 school to accomplish that feat since the conference expanded to 10 teams in 1978.
• The Ducks have recorded four consecutive seasons with double-digit victories. Before this run, they had three in program history -- and they all happened over the past 12 years.
• The Ducks have 42 wins since the start of 2008, which is the most in a four-year period in school history. Last year, Oregon set a school record for wins at 12.
• Oregon coach Chip Kelly has led the Ducks to more wins (32) in his first three seasons than any coach in conference history.
• Kelly is 32-6 overall and 25-2 in Pac-12 play. His .926 percentage in conference play is the best in conference history.

And we'd like to announce that Oregon is very likely to win 10 games again in 2012 and will be the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth consecutive conference title, unless a couple of guys at USC decided to wait another year before entering the NFL draft.

Hold your thumb and forefinger an inch apart. That represents the distance Oregon has to travel to become a legitimate Pac-12 dynasty.

Of course, the NCAA looms over the program due to L'Affaire de Willie Lyles. Oregon has yet to receive its notice of allegations that contains specific alleged rules infractions, but it received official notification of an investigation in September, so it's only a matter of time. That could lead to a slap on the wrist. Or a haymaker that knocks the program out, at least for a bit.

But that's off-the-field stuff. Let's cast our gaze on the field. There is, after all, a space between your thumb and forefinger that needs explaining.

The only element that eludes Oregon under Kelly is a BCS bowl victory -- a signature win to complete a season. It lost the Rose Bowl to Ohio State after the 2010 season. It lost the national title game to Auburn after the 2011 season.

While those were both highly competitive games, they are most remembered by fans not wearing green -- or whatever color Oregon is wearing at the moment -- for the Ducks' high-powered offense getting stymied. You know, that whole "you give a good defense more than a week to prepare and it can stop Kelly's tricky spread-option."

We're about to make an assertion that some Ducks fans will disagree with (now there's something that never happens): It's a good thing Oregon isn't getting a rematch with LSU in the national title game.

I would not pick any team in the nation to beat LSU. Not Oregon, not anyone. To be honest, I wouldn't pick Oregon to beat Alabama, either.

At this point, I would pick the Ducks to beat either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Rose Bowl (I suspect they'd pound the Spartans; Wisconsin would be a much tougher test). And Oregon needs a victory in a BCS bowl game to earn national validation.

There is no question Oregon has owned the conference for three years. And, by owning the conference, the Ducks get ownership of all the nice nonconference wins Pac-12 teams have posted during that span. But Oregon doesn't have a marquee nonconference win under Kelly, bowl game or otherwise. Of his six losses, two came in conference play (Stanford, 2009; USC, 2011) and the other four were against highly ranked nonconference foes (Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU).

That's where the Rose Bowl comes in. Beating Wisconsin or Michigan State would give the Ducks a nice season-ending victory that would give them a national uptick heading into 2012.

Losing to LSU, no matter that every other team would do the same, would provide another negative example for those who don't perceive the Ducks as being truly elite. Remember: This is college football. Without a playoff, perception is only slightly less important than win-loss record (see how it at present is benefiting Alabama).

Of course, losing the Rose Bowl would have an even worse effect, one that could trickle down within the Pac-12. It could be the difference between a 2012 preseason No. 5 ranking and a No. 10 one. And, yes, that matters if your goal is to play for a national title.

Ergo: Oregon needs a BCS bowl win. That is a critical next step for the program.

Would that prove dynastic arrival? At the Pac-12 level, it's already there. As a perennial top-10 team, it would, too.

But there is one more step, though. Winning a BCS bowl would set a course, but the ultimate destination is to be standing amid confetti with a big smile in a loud uniform holding that gaudy crystal football after the final BCS bowl game is complete.

When the Oregon Ducks trudged off the Cowboys Stadium field after a 40-27 loss to LSU on Sept. 3, just about everyone counted them out. That was made real when they were poleaxed by pollsters, dropping from No. 3 to No. 13 and No. 14 in the AP and coaches' polls, respectively.

That will teach Oregon -- and anyone else -- to agree to a marquee nonconference matchup against an elite team that everyone wants to see!

Most turned away from the team with loud uniforms. Andrew Luck and Stanford were now the interesting team in the Pac-12, and Oklahoma, Alabama, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Florida State, Texas A&M and those LSU Tigers were the real contenders.

But teams, as they are wont to do in college football, started falling by the wayside, and the Ducks kept coming. It was quiet at first. Nevada bludgeoned a week after LSU; a pounding of Arizona on the road; California and Arizona State dispatched with prejudice.

And when Oregon gamboled off the field after a 53-30 victory over Stanford, just about everyone started counting them back in.

It made me recall that cool sequence at the beginning of Rocky III when Clubber Lang is, one by one, clubbering a string of foes on a bigger and bigger stage, and his dominance is attracting the worried attention of Rocky's manager Mickey.

And just as Survivor's "Eye of the Tiger" ends, Clubber barks at Mickey, "I want Balboa! I want Balboa! You hear that, Old Man?"

Said Ducks running back De'Anthony Thomas after the game, "I feel like if we get another shot at [LSU] again, I feel like it will be a better game."

Not exactly the same sort of bravado, but LSU is more Ivan Drago than Rocky.

Oregon would like to play LSU again with an offensive line and defensive front seven that have jelled. It would like to play LSU again with a healthy LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. It would like to play LSU without four turnovers, including two fumbles from Thomas.

It is a longshot to happen. And to be absolutely fair to how things went down in game one -- it sure as heck was as much about LSU's size and speed as turnovers -- and how good LSU has looked since then, my guess is few, including our friends who look at things without emotion in Las Vegas, would pick the Ducks to win a rematch.

It would, however, be interesting. Let's recall that the last offensive-minded evil genius to get a rematch in a national championship game against a defensive power -- Florida and Steve Spurrier in 1996 with Florida State -- won and won big.

If Oregon wins out impressively, and some dominoes fall here and there, maybe it will happen. It just won't happen today, this week or next. So let's bracket off the national title stuff.

And, as we look big picture, let's bracket off the potential endgame with L'Affair de Willie Lyles. I've talked to smart people who think Oregon may get hammered, and I've talked to smart people that think they won't. You never know with the NCAA, an institution where logic and fairness aren't always part of the process.

The big picture is this: Oregon is on the cusp of a third consecutive conference title. It's won 19 consecutive conference game, all but three by double-digits. If I were projecting coach Chip Kelly's record after his third season ends this January, I'd guess 34-5 (.875). Yes, I'm projecting a BCS bowl victory.

And Oregon will be a preseason top-five team in 2012 and will be the overwhelming favorites to win a fourth consecutive conference title, even if running back LaMichael James doesn't come back.

2013 looks like it will set up nicely, too.

Get the point? Oregon, barring a bomb from the NCAA, is set up for the long haul. It's on the cusp of becoming one of "those" programs. You know, where nine wins is viewed as a rebuilding year.

Of course, all the Ducks haters are barking about the lack of a Rose Bowl victory much less a national title. True. Snarky, but fair. That's why some of this hangs on the Ducks taking care of business in whatever January bowl they end up playing in.

Said Thomas, "I wouldn't want to play us."

Oh, there are lots of fans of lots of teams across the country that would have smart alec replies to that. That's the trash talking, message board, comments section face of college football.

But also know that plenty of measured, football-smart fans -- even LSU and Alabama fans -- watched the tour de force display against Stanford and thought to themselves, "I don't want to play them."

Panda Watch. The mood is tense; I have been on some serious, serious reports but nothing quite like this. I uh... Ching... King is inside right now. I tried to get an interview with him, but they said no, you can't do that he's a live bear, he will literally rip your face off.

• Arizona running back Daniel Jenkins is getting touches and producing.
• The loss at UCLA has Arizona State fans grumbling -- again.
• California is riding a four-game losing streak to Oregon State.
• Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen is playing his last game in Folsom Field.
• Oregon running back LaMichael James is no fan of the "finesse" label some give the Ducks. Oregon released more Willie Lyles documents.
• Oregon State safety Lance Mitchell is banged up but playing well.
• This is the biggest game of Andrew Luck's career. A good update on Stanford's injuries.
• The way to win for UCLA is rushing for 200 yards. Coach Rick Neuheisel had a chat with Norm Chow this year.
• USC coach Lane Kiffin talks about practice. Considering the play of Trojans defensive end Nick Perry.
• Utah has improved as quarterback Jon Hays has improved.
• Washington defensive coordinator Nick Holt talks defense and USC.
• Washington State has some young talent, though it might not ever play for coach Paul Wulff, who talks candidly about his future prospects.

Happy Friday.

Join me on my Twitter journey to exotic lands.

To the notes.

Joe from San Jose writes: what are the ACTUAL chances of Tedford being on the HOT SEAT? I was a Ted-Head, but ever since they were moments away from being ranked #1, they really haven't performed - which says a lot for a team which is recruiting in the top 15 the last couple of years.

Bill from Danville, Calif., writes: Ted, Its official - Tedford's seat is warm. Tonight was a pathetic display of offensive ineptitude. Maynard should have sat down at the half yet Tedford stuck with him while every bear fan at AT&T knew he gave us little or no chance to win. Sorriest display in several years of mediocre football.

Gary from Berkeley writes: Tedford has to be on the hot seat after that game against SC, right? If we win less than 6 games this year (no bowl game), do you think he should be fired??

Ted Miller: It's clear that California fans frustration is bubbling over, and Jeff Tedford's equity based on transforming the Bears from laughingstock to contender is running out. And an 0-3 start in Pac-12 play, including blowout losses to Oregon and USC -- teams the Cal used to battle atop the conference -- makes that frustration understandable, as does the declining play of QB Zach Maynard.

So, yes, I think it's fair to put Tedford on the proverbial hotseat. And, yes, I think if Cal has another losing, bowless season, it's fair to ask hard questions about whether it's time for a change.

The schedule softens up the next four weeks: Utah, UCLA, Washington State and Oregon State. As Jon Wilner pointed out, if the Bears win three of four, they would head into tough games with Stanford and Arizona State at 6-4, already bowl eligible.

Tedford has recruited well -- particularly of late -- and will be playing in a renovated stadium and will have fancy new facilities next year, projects his early success in large part paid for. I'd think if Cal reaches a bowl game, it would be hard not to let him coach into 2012, knowing that it's "win-or-else."

And, by the way, Tedford has no buyout in his contract. According to Wilner, it would cost Cal "approximately $10 million" to fire Tedford after this season.

So the Old Blues will need to be really motivated to dispatch Tedford. And more than a few will have to open their wallets and prove their motivation.

---

Eric from Portland writes: With the release of the NCAA investigation regarding Auburn, what the NCAA is telling us; as long as no one talks your school won't be found guilty. So using that logic, Oregon should have paid another $25K to Mr. Lyles with a contract to keep silent and USC should have paid off the marketing company that sunk Reggie. Just seems like they are telling colleges to be more secretive.

Ted Miller: Yes, that is what the NCAA is telling you, though here's a guess they would phrase it differently.

In almost every major violations case, there's a self-interested whistle-blower who feels like he was wronged and wants revenge. USC probably wouldn't be yoked with NCAA sanctions if Reggie Bush had paid off would-be agent Lloyd Lake (not USC, that would have been really, really bad).

And, yes, Oregon's position would have been safer if Willie Lyles had no grudge against the football program.

But the cases aren't exactly parallel. Lyles was a person of interest for the NCAA for a while because it was looking into alleged street agents. Oregon was going to be connected to him no matter what. Only now Lyles appears to be a far more eager witness.

---

Jason from Seattle writes: No, we're not giving Utah a break. For years now, you and other sports writers have been beating us over the head with the nonsense that these non-AQ schools deserve BCS games for beating one or two BCS teams all year and then getting fat off of cupcakes. Well...you've all been exposed. Utah is getting THRASHED in the P12. Don't make excuses. Look at ASU, they've suffered far more injuries than Utah and they have found a way to win. This is what life is like in a legit BCS conference (I'm looking at you Big East). You want to claim that Utah will catch up with good recruiting in a few years? Absolutely irrelevant to the question of whether these past non-AQ darlings deserved their BCS games. We've been telling you these non-AQ schools wouldn't survive BCS schedules and now we've got a data point to back it up.

Ted Miller: I don't agree with this, but this is a position held by many mailbag writers, so Jason gets his moment to vent. As I did.

---

Liberal Duck from Eugene writes: Your article makes me think you woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. Did you get some cloud cover today in Scottsdale that has got you down? If so, welcome to my world! Vitamin D supplements should help. I, personally, haven't seen too many comments stating that Utah doesn't belong in the PAC. I do think some people are, perhaps, a little giddy that both Colorado and Utah are feeling a little pain their first year in the conference. It kind of validates for us that the PAC-12 Conference is good. We need that validation, perhaps, because the PAC doesn't get the recognition it deserves from the idiot national media (You, of course, excluded).

Ted Miller: Also a valid position. More than a few Pac-12 fans were worried that if Utah and Colorado rolled this year, it would be widely viewed as evidence the conference was soft. Their struggles mean that at least one trash talk position isn't available to Pac-12 critics.

---

Kevin from Houston writes: Thinking about the Stoops situation, I realize, it's not so much about his 10 game fbs losing streak, or his sideline demeanor, it's about Oregon State. Stoops' record vs Oregon State, 2-6, including losing at home last year that broke the unbeaten streak. Let's say the cats win those 2 games, last year, and last week, Stoops would certainly still have his job at this moment, another key loss to OSU was in 2006, which would have meant a first bowl game for Stoops, all else being equal. These 2 programs have been so similar over the past 8 years, and OSU has gotten the best of Arizona most of the time. While Stoops for the most part has beaten the teams he has supposed to, Oregon State has usually been the exception.

Ted Miller: An interesting observation. And true in many ways. Those pesky Beavers gave Stoops trouble.

Of course, if Arizona hadn't lost to Oregon State last year, and it had gone to Stanford as an unbeaten, top-10 team and then began a five-game losing streak, well, that collapse might have been viewed with even more negative emotion.

But it's probably fair to say that if the Wildcats had won at Oregon State last weekend, Greg Byrne probably wouldn't have pulled the trigger on Monday.

---

Dan from Sacramento writes: For the purpose of determining who plays in the Pac-12 championship game, what does the league look at- overall Pac-12 won-loss record or record within the division (North or South). For example, if UCLA has a better record than ASU in Pac-12 South play, but ASU has a better overall Pac-12 record (due to more games won against the North)- does ASU play in the championship game? Or would UCLA? I presume overall Pac-12 record takes precedence, then who won the head-to-head (between UCLA & ASU).

Ted Miller: Each division is decided by overall conference record, not division record. And then, if tied, head-to-head.

At some point soon, somebody should write a country song about Willie Lyles.

The latest story that will pop up when you Google the notorious recruiting Svengali: Former Tennessee -- and USC -- assistant Willie Mack Garza allegedly wired $1,500 in July 2009 to Willie Lyles to pay for running back prospect Lache Seastrunk and his mother, Evelyn, to fly to Knoxville for an unofficial recruiting trip, according to a Yahoo! Sports report.

You've heard of Lache Seastrunk, right?

Garza resigned as USC's secondary coach on Sept. 1, citing "personal issues unrelated to USC."

You think this had something to do with it?

Seastrunk signed with Oregon but opted to transfer to Baylor this season. Oregon's business with Lyles and Seastrunk is being investigated by the NCAA.

And so Tennessee joins Oregon and LSU with some Lyles exposure.

Ah, but we sort of knew there would be more chapters to this mystery, eh? What I enjoyed most was this quote to Yahoo! from Evelyn Seastrunk.

"I'm so sick and tired of this 'Willie Lyles said this and Willie Lyles said that," she said. "I don't care what Willie Lyles says. I don't care as long as my son is OK.

"Whatever undercover dirty stuff that they're doing, I'm pretty sure that Willie Lyles is not the only person. He's just the only one that's been caught. This is something that they've been doing forever."

You go, girl.

By the way, USC doesn't have exposure here but coach Lane Kiffin might because Garza worked for him at Tennessee when the alleged violation took place.

Oregon opted to be announce the NCAA's official notice of inquiry into Le Affair de Willie Lyles just hours before kickoff Saturday.

Bury the news behind the monumental matchup with Missouri State? Perhaps. But there's no hiding from the reality at hand: The Ducks football program is at risk for significant sanctions.

Until Oregon receives its notice of allegations, we won't know how the NCAA will apply the vague rules on recruiting services that apply here.

A notice of inquiry only makes official an investigation that was first reported in March. Everyone knew this was coming.

What it merely does is end the illusion that Oregon would somehow find itself free-and-clear. The NCAA has found issues, whether those are major violations or not, that Oregon will have to answer for.

So the plot thickens.

Happy Football Friday.

• Three Arizona players to watch. And you should include this frosh linebacker.
• Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler played well but heat cramps were a problem.
• Is this California's next great running back?
• Can Colorado earn bowl eligibility? Buffs coach Jon Embree is a no-nonsense guy.
• LSU's Les Miles and Oregon's Chip Kelly have different images. The Ducks are healthy, but linebacker Kiko Alonso's status hasn't been announced.
• There is optimism and caution about the return of Oregon State wide receiver James Rodgers. Has coach Mike Riley gone soft with the selective suspensions?
• Stanford will play a number of talented freshmen. The Cardinal have high hopes, even beyond the Rose Bowl.
• UCLA is mad at Houston. Perhaps that's good because this is a must-win for the Bruins.
• USC's biggest concern is its offensive line. More on assistant coach Willie Mack Garza's sudden departure.
• Is Utah ready for the Pac-12 stage? We'll see next weekend at USC.
• Washington running back Chris Polk looks good enough to play, but will he? The Huskies might have returned to respectability, but the old Husky Stadium crowds have not.
• It's rare that the coach of a Washington State opponent is fine with saying, "Go Cougs." Are the Cougs past their growing pains? This is great news... good job, Kim.

Well, Chris, we meet again. The SEC and Pac-12 can’t seem to quit each other, eh?

You actually were a good sport about not gloating too hard over your correct prediction that Auburn would outlast Oregon and win the SEC’s fifth consecutive national championship. My prediction? I can’t recall, but I’ll admit a vague recollection of wrongness.

But here we go again: No. 3 Oregon versus No. 4 LSU in Cowboys Stadium. As good a season-opening matchup as we’ve had in decades. Kudos to both programs for having the courage to give college football fans something to look forward to during this dreary, controversy-laden offseason, from which these teams are not exempt by any means. Lots of intrigue in this one -- on and off the field.

But let’s start with the football part of football. Tell me about LSU: What are the Tigers' strengths and what are their question marks?

Chris Low: Honestly, Ted, the SEC has won so many national championships in a row now that it's not as much fun to talk smack. I guess we're sort of used to it here in SEC land. We do rings and NCAA investigations in these parts.

As for the game Saturday night in Arlington, Texas, I can't wait to see the collection of talent and speed on that field. This LSU defense should be the fastest John Chavis has had, and he's always put a premium on speed dating back to his days as Tennessee's defensive coordinator. Not only are the Tigers fast on defense, but they're deep. They have defensive ends, Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery, who run like safeties, and Chavis loves to use multiple defensive backs. Just about everybody in LSU's secondary is a former cornerback. The best of the bunch is Morris Claiborne, who can fly. The Tigers are going to play Tyrann Mathieu at nickel and let him roam, which is what he does best. They'll bring him on the blitz one play and drop him into coverage on the next. He had 8.5 tackles for loss as a freshman and forced five turnovers.

While defense will clearly be LSU's strength, the Tigers still have their share of guys on offense capable of making big plays even with quarterback Jordan Jefferson and receiver Russell Shepard sitting this one out. Sophomore running back Spencer Ware is poised to be one of the SEC's top breakout players this season. A former quarterback in high school, he weighs 225 pounds, has great moves and accelerates with the best of them. Senior guard Josh Dworaczyk will miss this game with a knee injury, and that's a blow. He's one of LSU's top offensive linemen. The one thing you don't know about this team is how equipped it would be to have to play from behind. Jarrett Lee is a senior and threw the ball well when he was called upon last season, but it's his show now with Jefferson sidelined. Lee's going to have to be more than just a situational player. I think you'll also see junior college newcomer Zach Mettenberger in this game. He has one of the strongest arms in the SEC, but he hasn't played at this level in a game. The Tigers will certainly have to throw it some to win this game. What I don't think they want to happen is to be in a position where they're having to throw it.

Ted Miller: Everyone is pretty focused on the matchup of the LSU defense and the Oregon offense, which makes sense. Most everyone knows the SEC plays defense at a different level than the rest of the country, though some snarky sorts out West wonder if that’s because those defenses play against SEC offenses. We’ll get to that. I’m just as curious about the Ducks' defense against the LSU offense, even more so with Jefferson out. The Ducks' defense was underrated last year. While it ranked only 34th in the nation in total defense, it gave up just 4.67 yards per play and ranked 20th in third-down defense. For comparison, LSU yielded 4.86 yards per play and ranked 16th in third-down defense.

But that is last year. Oregon is replacing five starters from its front seven. While the defense has been stout during preseason camp -- the feeling is it’s less experienced but bigger and more physically talented than last year -- we really don’t know what it will do against Ware and a run-first attack. As for defending the pass, the Ducks felt like they’d have one of the best secondaries in the country -- not unlike LSU -- heading into the season, but that included All-America cornerback Cliff Harris. Harris, you might have heard, is suspended because he was in a 118 mph hurry to get back to Eugene one offseason night.

But back to that Ducks offense versus LSU's defense matchup. The Ducks' up-tempo, spread-option has been stymied in big games of late when opposing defenses had extra time to prepare and loads of NFL talent in their front seven.

What have you heard about the Tigers' preparation and how does their front-seven personnel compare to Auburn's in 2010?

Chris Low: The best news for the Ducks is that Nick Fairley won't be suiting up for LSU on Saturday. He was the difference out in Glendale, Ariz., back in January, and my contention is that interior line play defensively has been what's set the SEC apart from everybody else the past several years. LSU is extremely talented up front with terrific athletes at the end positions and some promising young talent at tackle. They call true freshman tackle Anthony Johnson "Freak" for a reason. He's big, bad and usually bearing down on whoever has the ball. LSU doesn't have a proven difference-maker up front the caliber of Fairley, but LSU is deeper in the defensive line than Auburn was last season. At linebacker, Ryan Brown is an All-SEC caliber player on the weak side, but the Tigers will sorely miss Kelvin Sheppard in the middle. It looks like converted safety Karnell Hatcher is going to play a bunch in the middle.

Not to take anything away from Auburn's performance last season in the BCS National Championship Game, but LSU is a more talented defense across the board, particularly in the secondary, than the Auburn defense Oregon faced last season.

This also isn't John Chavis' first rodeo. His defenses were the backbone of some of Tennessee's best teams in the late 1990s, and with this being his third season in Baton Rouge, look for the Tigers to play even faster and more instinctively in that system this season. They've been working overtime to make sure they're getting the calls in quick enough, but I'd say you're going to see at least five defensive backs on the field for much of the game.

Ted Miller: All right, so we’ve talked about who will be there. The elephant in the room is who won’t be. The Ducks have two suspended players in cornerback Cliff Harris and middle linebacker Kiko Alonso. (We're guessing with Alonso; Chip Kelly won't say for sure.) More than a few folks saw the suspension of Shepard making the loss of Harris a push -- two all-conference types who also are special-teams stars. Alonso is the Ducks' most physical linebacker, so his loss is significant. Dewitt Stuckey has seen action, but his backup is a walk-on. The Ducks seem fairly healthy heading into the game, though there are questions about receiver Josh Huff, who had been walking around in a boot until recently.

Still, all of this seems less important than the loss of Jordan Jefferson. First, what does losing Jefferson mean to LSU, both as a player and leader? Second, tell us a bit about Lee.

Chris Low: The Tigers will miss Jefferson's ability to scramble and extend the play. He didn't throw it very well last season, but he made several big plays with his legs. In Lee, you get a pure pocket passer who's not going to move around much and look to run.

Lee's story is a good one. He had a brutal redshirt freshman season in which he threw 16 interceptions, including seven that were returned for touchdowns. But he persevered and hung around, and here he is with a chance to lead LSU to a special season as a senior. Lee came off the bench several times last season to save the Tigers, and I don't think there's any question that there's a renewed sense of confidence in him among his teammates.

Shepard is another playmaker you take out of the equation for LSU and a guy who can turn missed tackles into touchdowns, and the other key piece on offense the Tigers will be missing is senior guard Josh Dworaczyk, who's out with an injured knee. He was one of the anchors of that offensive line, so that's three key players missing on offense.

If the Tigers are going to win this one, they have to keep the Ducks from dialing up a bunch of big plays.

Enough talking, though. Let's play. How do you see this one shaking out, Ted?

Ted Miller: Chris, after watching Oregon lose games like this to Boise State, Ohio State and Auburn, I’ve got to admit I see a pattern. Further, I think LSU’s front seven is at least as good as Auburn’s was and the LSU secondary is much better. I think the Ducks' defense will hold down the LSU offense fairly well, but I also think it will feel like a road game for Oregon because of a two-to-one Tigers advantage in the stands. I see a good game, but one in which the Tigers prevail 24-21.

Chris Low: I'm picking the Tigers, too. Imagine that. I tried to convince you to pick Auburn out in Arizona back in January, but you were blinded by those Oregon uniforms. The Ducks play fast, but so does the LSU defense. I also think the Tigers will be able to run the ball well enough to keep that Oregon offense off the field. Get ready for Spencer Ware to formally introduce himself to the college football world in a 28-24 LSU win that soothes a few wounds on the Bayou.