John Russell/NHLI/Getty ImagesIn cap-bound hockey, spending on players such as Ryan Suter and Shea Weber really matters.It’s tough to follow the money in sports, so The Mag commissioned the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania to discover the relationship between spending and winning in the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and English Premier League. Six Wharton students and two professors spent 250 hours studying exactly how money is used to gain an edge in sports. They used a technique called regression analysis to estimate how changes in spending at certain on-field positions would positively or negatively impact how much a team won. The research probed how reallocating player salaries impact performance, whether that relationship changes from sport to sport and how teams can spend smarter than their competition. Armed with Wharton’s data, we learned nine important lessons.
Lesson one: Moneyball still works
Perhaps Wharton’s most surprising finding was that there was a smaller correlation between spending and winning in deep-pocketed baseball than in cap-bound hockey. While many teams have co-opted A’s GM Billy Beane’s Moneyball strategy, other market inefficiencies linger, like player development and pre-arbitration deal-making. “The Rays are a great model,” says one GM about the low-budget team that has averaged 92 wins the past four seasons. “It’s much more difficult to sustain success with a smaller payroll, but if you put the right parts together, you can have a three- to-five-year run.”
Lesson two: EPL rewards spenders
Nothing stood out to the Wharton professors like this English Premier League truism: “If you can’t pay, you can’t compete.”
The coveted top four spots in the Premier League standings belonged to the top spenders in six of the 10 years studied. With no cap on players or teams, the war chests of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United create a vast disparity between themselves and the other 15 clubs.
This strong correlation between salary and success (and a long season that mitigates the randomness seen in low-scoring tourney upsets) also led the researchers to conclude that team performance is actually easier to project in soccer than in the other sports.
Lesson three: A lot of spending goes a little way in the NFL
Unlike world football, the NFL shows an extremely weak correlation between spending and winning: There’s no formula, and the best talent has been hard to pay for. Increasing team payroll by 10 percent yields just a quarter of a win. Spending it on offense nets only 7.9 extra points per season; on defense, it nets 2.2 fewer points allowed.
Throw your money at quarterbacks or cornerbacks, linebackers or left tackles. It doesn’t much matter. Wharton found that dedicating more payroll at any one position proved statistically insignificant to winning. And salary isn’t indicative of performance. Rams QB Sam Bradford made $26.8 million last season, including bonuses; Giants QB Eli Manning made $9 million. Manning and his team were just slightly better.
Vikings GM Rick Spielman says he isn’t shocked by those results. In the other sports, especially baseball, star pitchers or power hitters can dominate individual matchups. Football relies more on coordinating the efforts of everyone on the field. “All 11 guys have to work together as one on every snap,” Spielman says.
Plus, more than in any other sport, the frequency and randomness of injuries can destroy even the best-built teams and throw off any slight relationship between salary and success. Put another way, when you’re down to your backup QB, that’s a problem no amount of money can solve.

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Looking like @StubHub will make about $700,000 on buyers and sellers fees alone for NBA Finals Game 7.
29 minutes ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
33.5M people played fantasy sports in the US in the last 12 months, up 1M from last year (Source: Fantasy Sports Trade Assoc)
34 minutes ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
RT @ChaddScott: 100% of cost overruns on EverBank Field renovation will be covered by Jags, all potential savings put back into stadium!
about an hour ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
Jaguars/Jacksonville/Gator Bowl just announced a new scoreboard going in at EverBank Field that will be largest in the #NFL.
about an hour ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- darrenrovell darren rovell
LeBron will start Game 7 with his headband on, according to @Rachel__Nichols (H/T @rickhodesigns)
about an hour ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
At least intrigued by Under Armour's new Speedform shoe -- made in a bra factory http://t.co/x2p2O3GM1j
about an hour ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
Headed to Omaha tomorrow for a few days...any good restaurants @KenzieThirkill and I should know about in the Old Market area?
about an hour ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
RT @ChaddScott: I think @SportsBizMiss & I will have another HUGE story to discuss on "#SportsBiz Radio" tonight. 7-9PM ET listen http://t.…
about 2 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- darrenrovell darren rovell
As many as five NBA teams will wear short-sleeve jerseys next year, as appeal at retail is tested http://t.co/hYHi7c2aFy
about 2 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
The @UFlorida is now offering a Masters in Social Media http://t.co/fyhgAyJzG2 (H/T @rpeters001h)
about 4 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
San Antonio Hotel apologizes in advance for possible celebration for Spurs http://t.co/1qPUJ0MiJx (via @TheByler, @SuzanneTobias)
about 4 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
LeBron headband prop from @BovadaLV: Wearing headband at Game 7 tipoff? Yes (1/2), No (3/2)
about 5 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Copy of Kobe Bryant's 2000 Lakers championship ring owned by his father is already up to $50,000 http://t.co/MF5PdiRFxk
about 5 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Game 6 gets the 4th highest overnight rating of the 63 NBA Finals games on ABC (H/T @ESPNResearch)
about 5 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Nike Golf has signed the #1 ranked amateur in the world Chris Williams, repped by Mark Steinberg, to a head-to-toe endorsement deal.
about 6 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Full Length Anchorman II Trailer Released http://t.co/2vmVWW2Dyy
about 6 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
RT @jksports: 14.7 overnight rating for NBA Finals Game 6 is the 4th best rating for any NBA game ever on ABC
about 6 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
RT @1010XL: . @lbigator & @KenzieThirkill have another Gator podcast this week discussing Tebow to Pats & Antonio Morrison http://t.co/4l6H…
about 6 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Adidas will come out with a Messi collection in February, will include shoe and apparel. Only Beckham has gotten this type of treatment.
about 6 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Adidas North America prez Patrik Nilsson on DRose: "We aren't driving Derrick's agenda in any way. We just want to SEE him healthy."
about 6 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Gillette built a pop up barbershop in New York City (via @IMGCollege) http://t.co/UQ5Bn5l4ex
about 6 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Adidas North America prez Patrik Nilsson on DRose: "We aren't driving Derrick's agenda in any way. We just want to him healthy."
about 6 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Anyone looking for 6 courtside seats to Game 7? @whiteglovelife selling them for $35,000 A SEAT on its website.
about 7 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
Ohio State has canceled Central Michigan game in '16 due to move to 9-game schedule in Big Ten: http://t.co/5ASatjuTmy.
about 7 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
If I lived in or near Cincinnati I would totally go to that seminar!
about 7 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
Cincinnati attorneys presenting seminar on impact on baseball of Pete Rose and the Black Sox Scandal of 1919: http://t.co/JfyeN4ddJ1.
about 7 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Presented without comment: MLB tweets picture of its Diversity Summit today http://t.co/ddUYw4SEzB
about 7 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Video of Heat fans trying to get back in last night after game went into OT http://t.co/POGndDNtgB (via @cmags44)
about 7 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
Hundreds of fans who left with the Heat down 5 at the end, we're pounding on doors trying to get back for OT (via @DailyThunder)
about 8 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
The Heat will pull in about $3 million from ticket sales and concessions for Game 7.
about 8 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
Sports pays RT @NewsPressSeth Florida Gulf Coast president gets an $18K raise, $80K bonus.
about 8 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
AP: Taco Bell testing a Power Protein menu that offers double the meat in its burritos and bowls.
about 8 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
RT @bvincent91: Some good career advice about using Twitter professionally from @SportsBizMiss: http://t.co/UkuDzXKIen
about 10 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
Do not leave dogs in cars - not that hard! MT @cbsatl: GA police dog found dead in handler's car - CBS Atlanta 46 http://t.co/BPabeBChgJ
about 10 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh
Shameful MT @cannonjw: Heat Fans Left Gm 6 Early, Banged On Doors To Be Let Back In During OT. #sportsbiz #NBAFinals http://t.co/uKMZPOV5Pu
about 10 hours ago
- SportsBizMiss Kristi Dosh

- darrenrovell darren rovell
RT @EliLanger: I wish I was kidding: 107 parody Twitter accounts were created tonight for LeBron James' headband.
about 15 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
Headlines: HEAT ROGAINE MOMENTUM (@j_euerle), NO SWEAT (@CrwnPrnce_Media), HE-AT GAME (@JustinErie), sEVEN! (@TheRealFakeEvan)
about 17 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
With headband sales representing a fraction of 1% of NBA licensed sales, I doubt the league is “sweating” right now.
about 17 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
THIS RT @TheDeez41 Newest unlockable character in NBA2K14? No Headband LeBron
about 17 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Pat Riley had 3 trademarks for Three-Peat. Just last year, he added his latest, "3-Peat" for jewelry.
about 18 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Rohit Walia has to be worried. He has the trademark to "Three-Heat." The NBA unsuccessfully opposed his registration.
about 18 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Avg face value ticket price this year: Heat $72.50 vs. $58.45 (via @teammktgreport)
about 18 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
POLL RESULTS: 16% of people that voted say that LeBron will never win another title http://t.co/1ugvnfG5mE
about 18 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
POLL: How many rings will LeBron finish his career with? #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7
about 18 hours ago
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- darrenrovell darren rovell
Should we add any others, folks? RT ‏@The_Real_DA Only Bono, Nicholson, and Kravitz can wear sunglasses indoors
about 19 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Can't get over the sunglasses "inside the arena" look in Miami http://t.co/s3rbXOcjGn
about 19 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Pretty impressive showing @Spurs viewing party at the AT&T Center tonight http://t.co/rEI32ppE8W
about 19 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
Who had Jesse Williams and Julia Dale in their pool as the people trending in Game 6 of the NBA Finals?
about 20 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
In the last 17 years, the arena of the NBA champion has been sponsored by an airline 6 times (35%)
about 20 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell

- darrenrovell darren rovell
During the regular season, some fans PAY NBA teams to sing the National Anthem. Usually can do it by buying at least 200 tickets.
about 20 hours ago
- darrenrovell darren rovell



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