SEC picks: Week 6

October, 8, 2009
10/08/09
9:00
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Posted by ESPN.com's Chris Low


As I survey the lineup of games this week in the SEC, there’s no doubt that it’s the toughest batch I’ve had to pick all season.

You knew back in the spring when you looked at the schedule that Oct. 10 was going to be one of those days that we SEC freaks live for. It all starts at noon ET in Fayetteville, Ark., and won’t end until sometime just before midnight in Baton Rouge, La.

Strap it on a little tighter, and make sure those ankles have plenty of tape.

It’s going to be a wild one.

I go into the weekend on a bit of a roll. I’m 35-7 for the season (.833) and was 6-1 last week. I’ve hit 13 of 15 the past two weeks.

The only one I missed last week was LSU’s 20-13 win over Georgia, and who knows how that one would have turned out had the officiating crew not been excessively throwing flags in the final minutes.

Here are my picks for Week 6 in the SEC:

Vanderbilt 19, Army 13: This is the first of two option offenses the Commodores will see this month. Georgia Tech pays a visit to Nashville on Oct. 31. Of course, defense hasn’t been the problem for the Commodores this season. They simply haven’t been able to score, totaling 19 points in their three SEC losses. Look for them to match that total at West Point, which should be enough to even their overall record at 3-3.

Mississippi State 35, Houston 31: The Bulldogs go from a run-happy offense in Georgia Tech last week to a pass-happy offense in Houston this week. The Cougars can score points with the best of them. They just can’t stop anybody. UTEP’s Donald Buckram ran for 262 yards and four touchdowns last week against a Houston defense that’s allowed 121 points in its last three games. Think Anthony Dixon is licking his chops?

South Carolina 31, Kentucky 13: Too bad South Carolina can’t play Kentucky every week. The Gamecocks haven’t had many teams’ number in the SEC, but they’ve pretty much owned the Wildcats. South Carolina has won nine straight and 11 of the last 13 games in the series. History’s not the only thing working against the Wildcats, either. Both of their starting cornerbacks, including All-American Trevard Lindley, are out for this game.

Tennessee 21, Georgia 17: The Vols have been close enough to be dangerous in their two SEC losses. Their defense has given them a chance against both Florida and Auburn. Now, if only the offense would cooperate. The Bulldogs haven’t been able to run it the past two weeks, which doesn’t bode well for them against Monte Kiffin’s defense. Meanwhile, the Vols’ running game seems to be hitting its stride. It all adds up to Lane Kiffin’s first SEC win.

Arkansas 38, Auburn 31: Gene Chizik has done a terrific job with the Tigers, who at 5-0 are the surprise team of the league. They’re extremely balanced on offense and playing with a purpose. The chinks have come on defense, which has given up more points and yards than anybody on the Plains would like. That will finally catch up with them in Fayetteville, where the Hogs will find themselves on the right end of a shootout this time.

Alabama 24, Ole Miss 17: These teams always seem to play close games, and Alabama always seems to win. The Crimson Tide have won five straight and six of the last seven in the series. If the Rebels (and Jevan Snead) were playing better, it would be tempting to pick them at home. But Alabama’s defense is just too good, and the guy playing quarterback for the Crimson Tide hasn’t been what you’d call shabby.

Florida 28, LSU 16: Will he, or won’t he? Picking this game without knowing the playing status of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is like trying to hear the signals in Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. The place will be rocking for sure, and LSU’s defense will be ready for whatever quarterback Florida trots out there. Ultimately, though, the difference will be the Gators’ defense, which has only given up two touchdowns all season. The Tigers have had a hard time scoring touchdowns in the red zone, and you’re not going to beat Florida kicking field goals.

Chris Low | email

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